MIME 442 Analysis,

Modeling and Optimization

in Mineral Processing
MAYELI ALVAREZ-SILVA

MODULE 1
Department of Mining of Materials Engineering
McGill University
MODELS

2
What is a mathematical model?
You are familiar with models since you have used many of them!

= 2

150 1 2 8
= 9,4 1015
3 832 2 = 1
3
1 1 1
= +
= 2
+
=

3
Examples of mathematical models
From your basic science classes, you may be familiar with this
expression:

A=pre-exponential factor (related to the frequency of collision);

Ea=activation energy; R=gas constant; T=temperature

The Arrhenius equation is a simple but remarkably accurate model to

estimate reaction rates as a function of temperature.
It can be used to calculate variation of diffusion coefficients, population of
crystal vacancies, creep rates, and many other thermally-induced
processes/reactions.

4
Examples of mathematical models
Or perhaps this one:

P = pressure; V = volume; n = moles; R = gas constant; T = temperature.

The ideal gas law is the equation of state of a hypothetical ideal gas. It is a
good approximation to the behavior of gases under certain conditions (e.g.,
low pressure and high temperature).

5
Examples of mathematical models
What about this?

=-

J = mass flux due to diffusion; D = diffusivity; C = concentration

Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion#me
diaviewer/File:Blausen_0315_Diffusion.png

Diffusive mass transfer of ink in water

Fick's first law relates the diffusive mass flux (mass flow per time per area
of transference) under the assumption of steady state.

6
Regarding mineral processing
From your course Introduction to Mineral Processing, you may be familiar
with:
1 1
=
80 80

WB=consumed energy; cB=coefficient; dE=final particle size, P80=the 80%

passing size of the product; F80=the 80% passing size of the feed

Bond's Law stabilizes a linear relationship between the consumed energy

during milling and the square root of the particle size before and after size
reduction.

7
Regarding mineral processing
And also with:

P = probability of collection; PC = probability of collision; PA = probability

of attachment; PE = Probability of particle being retained

The probabilistic flotation models state that the probability of collection

can be calculated from the product of the probabilities of three successive
events to happen (i.e. collision, adhesion and non-detachment).

8
What is a mathematical model?

1. They can be defined as abstractions of reality.

2. They represent (often in a simplified way) things, systems,

processes

3. They are normally expressed as equations or computer codes.

9
Types of models
Some common classifications divide the models as follows:

1. Deterministic vs. stochastic

2. Static vs. dynamic

3. Mechanistic vs. statistical

10
Deterministic vs. stochastic
Deterministic models do not have components that are inherently
uncertain, i.e., no parameters are characterized by probability
distributions or distribution models (unlike stochastic or probabilistic).

Every time you run a deterministic model with the same initial
conditions you will get the same results.

For stochastic models, every time you run the model, you may obtain
slightly different results, even if you use the same initial conditions.

11
Static vs. dynamic
Static models are in steady state do not change with the time. The
dynamic models are used to explain the behavior of a system/process
as a function of time.

Example: first (static) and second (dynamic) Fick's law.

=- = 2

12
Mechanistic vs. statistical
Statistical or empirical models are usually regression based. They
provide a quantitative summary of the observed relationships among a
set of measured variables.

A mechanistic or phenomenological model begins with a description of

how nature works, and proceeds from the description to a set of
predictions. In other words, they come from universal laws.

Empirical models: Valid only at the conditions

used for their development.
Mechanistic models: Wide application.

13
Can you classify these models?
Gilliland equations used to estimate stages in a distillation column as a
function of minimum reflux

First law of Thermodynamics

= +

Point out differences between these models.

14
A model should be
Accurate

Flexible

Simple

There is no perfect model. It is usual to be faced with trade-offs between

them.

For example, increasing accurately will frequently decrease the flexibility

and/or simplicity.

15
Modeling process

Formulation
Real world data Model
(observation)

This
Analysis resembles the
Test scientific
method!

Interpretation
Prediction of Mathematical
explanation result

(Dobson, 2003)

16
Scientific method
1. Make general observations of a phenomena

2. Formulate a hypothesis

3. Develop a method to test the hypothesis However, models

can be used in
situations outside
of scientific
4. Obtain the data research

5. Test the hypothesis against the data

6. Confirm or deny the hypothesis

7.
17
It could happen that
You find good models for your system that can be modified to be
applied.

You find models that represent parts of your system. Then you can put
together these submodels to represent the whole system of interest.

You find a general model which includes the system of interest. Then,
you should simplify or make approximations to the general model.

18
In this course, we will review models that you may be familiar with and
translated to apply to real systems!

Now, we will start with a review of statistics.

19
A REVIEW OF
STATISTICS

20
Mean and variance
A statistical parameter is a number obtained from a statistical
distribution.

They help us to synthetize data thus make their analysis easier.

Some common statistical parameters are:

1. Mean
=1
=

2. Variance: a measure of the data dispersion

2
=1
2 =

21
Other statistical parameters
In general, statistical parameters can be classified as follows:

Position
e.g. Mean, mode (refers to the list of numbers that occur most
frequently), median ('middle value' in the data set is an even number of
the mean of the two middle value if it is a pair).

Dispersion
e.g. Standard deviation, relative standard deviation

Shape
e.g. Asymmetry factor

22
 Histogram
A graph that shows the distribution of discrete variables. It gives an idea of
the central location, dispersion and shape of a data set.
Name Height
Sven Andrighetto 59
Michael Bournival 511 Height of the Montreal
David Desarnais 57 Canadiens hockey players
Lars Eller 62
Alex Galchentun 61
Brebdan Gallagher 59 12
Manny Malhotra 62
Max Pacioretty 62
10
Pierre-Alexandre Parenteau 60
Tomas Plekanec 511
Brandon Prust 60 8

Occurence, units
Jiri Sekac 62
Eric Tangradi 64 6
Dale Weise 62
Bryan Allen 65 4
Nathan Beaulieu 62
Alexei Emelin 62
2
Tom Gilbert 62
Sergei Gonchar 62
Andrei Markov 60 0
65-66 67-68 69-70 71-72 73-74 75-76 77-78 79-80
P.K. Subban 60
Mike Weaver 510 Height, inches
Carey Price 63
Dustin Tokarski 511
Source: http://canadiens.nhl.com/club/roster.htm

23
Distribution frequency diagrams
For continuous variables (e.g., time, temperature, etc), we can
construct distribution frequency diagrams.

An RTD (residence
distribution time) curve
for a reasonably well-
mixed reactor

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Residen
ce_time_distribution

24
 Types of distribution
Some of the most common distributions are:

Normal (or Gaussian) Uniform

Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N
ormal_distribution
Frequency

Pareto Gamma
Bimodal Source: Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G
areto_distribution amma_distribution

25
Normal distribution
Characteristics:
Source: http://usersguidetotheuniverse.com/wp-
content/uploads/2011/08/normal-distribution-
curve.jpg
Symmetric, bell shaped
Continuous for - X
Two parameters, and
(standard normal distribution =0
and =1)
Mean, median and mode are all
found on the second quartile
About 68% of cases lie within 1
standard deviation of the mean
About 95% of cases lie within 2
standard deviations of the mean
More than 99% of cases lie within
3 standard deviations of the
mean
26
Why is it useful?

1. Many phenomena adhere to normal distributions, or very close to it.

2. Many sampling distributions based on large N can be approximated

by the normal distribution even though the population distribution
itself is definitely not normal, as we will see.

3. The normal distribution is easy to work with mathematically. In many

practical cases, the methods developed using normal theory work quite
well even when the distribution is not normal.

27
Statistical parameters from a sample
Sometimes, it is difficult (if not impossible) to get statistical parameters
of a complete population.

Thus, we use samples to estimate populations statistics.

Samples should represent the population properly (in Module 3, we will

learn about sampling theory and methods).

28
Example
Population:
Weight of centres for the Canadiens hockey team

Number Name Weight, lbs

1 David Desharnais 176
2 Alex Galchenyuk 198
3 Tomas Plekanec 198
4 Manny Malhotra 207
5 Lars Eller 209

Source: http://canadiens.nhl.com/club/roster.htm

29
 Sample of two
If we take a random sample of two centres, we have 25 possible samples of
two:
i Sample element
1 2
1 176 176
2 176 198
3 176 198
4 176 207
5 176 209
6 198 176
7 198 198
8 198 198
9
19
198
198
207
209
The probability
11 198 176 (frequency) of each
12 198 198
13 198 198 sample being
14 198 207
15 198 209 chosen () is 1/25.
16 207 176
17 207 198
18 207 198
19 207 207
20 207 209
21 209 176
22 209 198
23 209 198
24 209 207
25 209 209

30
 Sample of two
The mean of the the two samples
i Sample element Mean Variance Variance Variance
1 2 (known (unknown (unknown
) M-1) M-2)
1 176 176 176.0 466.56 0 0
2 176 198 187.0 233.36 121 242
3 176 198 187.0 233.36 121 242
4 176 207 191.5 277.46 240.25 480.5
5
6
176
198
209
176
192.5
187.0
298.26
233.36
The expected value
272.25
121
544.5
242
7
8
198
198
198
198
198.0
198.0
0.16
0.16
of the team is the
0
0
0
0
9
19
198
198
207
209
202.5
203.5
44.26
65.06
population mean, .
20.25
30.25
40.5
60.5
11
12
198
198
176
198
187.0
198.0
233.36
0.16
In general, a sample
121
0
242
0
13
14
198
198
198
207
198.0
202.5
0.16
44.26
mean is an unbiased
0
20.25
0
40.5
15
16
198
207
209
176
203.5
191.5
65.06
277.46
estimate of the
30.25
240.25
60.5
480.5
17 207 198 202.5 44.26 population mean.
20.25 40.5
18 207 198 202.5 44.26 20.25 40.5
19 207 207 207.0 88.36 0 0
20 207 209 208.0 109.16 1 2
21 209 176 192.5 298.26 272.25 544.5
22 209 198 203.5 65.06 30.25 60.5
23 209 198 203.5 65.06 30.25 60.5
24 209 207 208.0 109.16 1 2
25 209 209 209.0 129.96 0 0
Mean --- --- 197.6 137.04 68.52 137.04

31
 Calculate the number of possible samples

In general, the number of possible samples is calculated as:

Being
In which(inn this expression)
is population n: population
size and size;
i is the sample i: sample size.
size

Q How many possible samples do we have if the sample size is 3

players? What if it is 4?

32
Value of the variance of the sample means

= i 2

=1
Where i is the frequency (probability).
In our example:

1 2
4 2
= 176 197.6 + 187 197.6 2 + 191 197.6 2
25 25 25
2 4 4
+ 192.5 197.6 2 + 198 197.6 2 + 202.5 197.6 2
25 25 25
4 1 2
+ 203.5 197.6 2 + 207 197.6 2 + 208 197.6 2
25 25 25
1 1
+ 209 197.6 2 = 68.52 = 137.04
25 2

33
 Value of the variance of the sample means

The value of
Generalizing, thethe variance
value of themean
of the variance mean is calculated
is calculated as follows
as follows:
2
=

Thus, the standard deviation of the sampling distribution of the means
is:
2
= = =

34
 Variance and standard deviation of a sample

Known population mean, , the variance is calculated as:

=1
2
s ==
2
2

And the standard deviation:

=1
2
s =
=

Unbiased population
Unkown estimation ofmean:
variance s2 s2 :
2
=1 2
=1
2 = or 2 =
1

35
 Going back to the example
Weight of centres for the Canadiens hockey team
i Sample element Mean Variance Variance Variance
1 2 (known (unknown (unknown
) M-1) M-2)
1 176 176 176.0 466.56 0 0
2 176 198 187.0 233.36 121 242
3 176 198 187.0 233.36 121 242
4 176 207 191.5 277.46 240.25 480.5
5 176 209 192.5 298.26 272.25 544.5
6 198 176 187.0 233.36 121 242
7 198 198 198.0 0.16 0 0
8 198 198 198.0 0.16 0 0
9 198 207 202.5 44.26 20.25 40.5
19 198 209 203.5 65.06 30.25 60.5
11 198 176 187.0 233.36 121 242
12 198 198 198.0 0.16 0 0
13 198 198 198.0 0.16 0 0
14 198 207 202.5 44.26 20.25 40.5
15 198 209 203.5 65.06 30.25 60.5
16 207 176 191.5 277.46 240.25 480.5
17 207 198 202.5 44.26 20.25 40.5
18 207 198 202.5 44.26 20.25 40.5
19 207 207 207.0 88.36 0 0
20 207 209 208.0 109.16 1 2
21 209 176 192.5 298.26 272.25 544.5
22 209 198 203.5 65.06 30.25 60.5
23 209 198 203.5 65.06 30.25 60.5
24 209 207 208.0 109.16 1 2
25 209 209 209.0 129.96 0 0
Mean --- --- 197.6 137.04 68.52 137.04

36
 Original distribution and distribution of
sample means

0.45
0.4
0.35
0.3
Original
Frequency

0.25 distribution
0.2 Not a normal
0.15
distribution!
0.1
0.05
0
176 198 207 209
Weight, lb
0.18
0.16
0.14
Distribution of 0.12
Frequency

sample means 0.1

(sample size = 2) 0.08

0.06
Not quite normal
0.04
distribution. 0.02
0
176 187 191.5 198 202.5 203.5 207 208 209
Mean 37
 Distribution of sample means
0.12

0.1

0.08 Distribution of sample

Frequency

0.06 means (sample size = 3)

0.04
Starts resembling the
0.02
normal distribution.
0

204.7
176.0
183.3
186.3
187.0
190.7
193.7
194.3
196.7
197.3
198.0
201.0
201.7
204.0

205.3
207.0
207.7
208.3
209.0
Mean 0.09
0.08
0.07
0.06
Frequency

0.05
Distribution of sample 0.04
0.03
means (sample size = 4)
0.02
Even closer! 0.01
0

Mean
38
Now we know!

As n we will approach to a
normal distribution of sample
means

39
 Central limit theorem
The previous findings are consequences of the central limit theorem, which can be
summarized as follows:

1. The mean of the distribution of all sample means is the population mean.

2. The standard deviation of the sample means of all samples of size n is =

.

3. Regardless of the shape of the original distribution, as n gets larger, the

distribution of means becomes more and more normal.

40
What is the muddiest
point in this lecture?

41