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95
Talks to Maurice R.
Jacob Heilbrunn
Greenberg About China & America
Exposes the
Robert D. Blackwill
Smear Against Henry Kissinger
www.nationalinterest.org
by John J.
Mearsheimer
Number 129 . January/February 2014
The Realist
Articles
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Wikimedia Commons: pages 41, 45, 62, 90, 91, 93
51 Tinker, Tailor, Leaker, Spy by David V. Gioe
The debate so far over massive leaks of classified information has focused on the balance between
liberty and secrecy. But the real cost will be seen in coming decades, in the form of a reduced
ability to recruit human-intelligence sources.
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The Realist
Maurice Greenberg JH: What do you think specifically has
changed and why?
on China & America MG: We had some principles we stood
for and believed in, and we were respected
The National Interests editor Jacob around the world for those principles.
Heilbrunn recently spoke with Maurice R. Enemy and friend alike may not like us,
Greenberg, the former chairman and ceo of but they respected us and what we believed
aig, chairman and ceo of starr Insurance in. I dont sense that anymore. I think weve
Holdings, Inc., and chairman of the Center backed away from being a world leader, for
for the National Interest. What follows is a whatever reason.
lightly edited version of their conversation.
JH: Do you think its a loss of confidence
Jacob Heilbrunn: If you look at your and willpower or an actual diminution of
career and life as a businessmanas American strength?
a soldier who fought in Normandy and
helped liberate Dachau concentration MG: I think we have the strength potential
campit does exemplify America at to do whatever we want as a country. One
its peak. Weve had this whole era with of our strengths has been the diversity of
America as a superpower. When you look our population. The immigrants that came
back, do you feel that America today has to this country were Eastern Europeans.
absorbed the lessons that we learned in And they had a different work ethic. Theyd
World War II and afterward, or have we never go on welfare; my God, theyd rather
peaked as a superpower? slit their throats than do that. We have
a different population today, and weve
Maurice R. Greenberg: Well, weve become entitlement-bound. And its not
changed. Theres no question about that. considered improper to get entitlements,
When I came back from World War II, for whatever reason. They dont feel
along with ten million other Americans, I any degradation in their own self, as an
had to finish high school. I didnt want to go individual. Thats a change. Is it going to go
to college. I could have gone to West Point. back and change again?
But I didnt want to stay in the military. I
was nineteen years old when I came back. JH: Its interesting that England is doing
I stayed in the reserves because I needed relatively well economically now, even
the money, and I was going to school. So though its leaders pushed through some
when the Korean War broke out, right after pretty severe austerity cuts. The pound has
I finished law school, I was recalled, and I strengthened against the dollar.
spent over a year in Korea. But Americas
changed, theres no question about it. MG: They did. Theyre doing their best to
S
ince early 2011, political develop- sure the right person is in charge in Cairo
ments in Egypt and Syria have re- and Damascus.
peatedly captured the attention of Packaged together, such beliefs create a
the American foreign-policy elite. The powerful mandate for continuous American
Obama administration has tried to guide involvement in the politics of these two
the turbulent political situation in post- troubled countries.
Mubarak Egypt and become increasingly Anyone paying even cursory attention to
engaged in Syrias bloody civil war. The U.S. foreign policy in recent decades will
United States is already helping arm some recognize that Washingtons response to
of the forces fighting against the Assad re- Egypt and Syria is part of a much bigger
gime, and President Obama came close to story. The story is this: Americas national-
attacking Syria following its use of chemi- security elites act on the assumption that
cal weapons in August 2013. Washington every nook and cranny of the globe is of
is now directly involved in the effort to great strategic significance and that there
locate and destroy Syrias chemical-weapons are threats to U.S. interests everywhere. Not
stockpiles. surprisingly, they live in a constant state
These responses reflect three widespread of fear. This fearful outlook is reflected in
beliefs about Egypt and Syria. The first the comments of the chairman of the Joint
is that the two states are of great strategic Chiefs of Staff, General Martin Dempsey,
importance to the United States. There before Congress in February 2012: I cant
is a deep-seated fear that if the Obama impress upon you that in my personal
administration does not fix the problems military judgment, formed over thirty-eight
plaguing those countries, serious damage years, we are living in the most dangerous
will be done to vital American interests. time in my lifetime, right now. In February
The second one is that there are compelling 2013, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
moral reasons for U.S. involvement in stated that Americans live in very complex
Syria, mainly because of large-scale civilian and dangerous times, and the following
deaths. And the third is that the United month Senator James Inhofe said, I dont
States possesses the capability to affect remember a time in my life where the world
Egyptian and Syrian politics in significant has been more dangerous and the threats
and positive ways, in large part by making more diverse.
These are not anomalous views. A 2009
John J. Mearsheimer is the R. Wendell Harrison survey done by the Pew Research Center
Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science for the People and the Press found that
at the University of Chicago. He is on the Advisory 69 percent of the Council on Foreign
Council of The National Interest. Relations members believed the world
twenty-five years than at any other time in weapon. 1 Political turmoil in a nuclear-
its history. General Dempseys assertion that armed state could in theory allow terrorists
the present marks the most dangerous era in to grab a loose nuclear weapon, but the
his lifetime is completely wrong. The world United States already has detailed plans to
was far more perilous during the Cold War, deal with that highly unlikely contingency.
which witnessed the various Berlin crises, Terrorists might also try toacquire fissile
the Cuban missile crisis and the 1973 Yom material and build their own bomb. But
Kippur War. And it is hard to fathom how that scenario is extremely unlikely as well:
Senator Inhofe, who was born one year there are significant obstacles to getting
after Hitler came to power, could think enough material and even bigger obstacles
todays world is more dangerous than the to building a bomb and then delivering
first decade of his life. it. More generally, virtually every country
Am I overlooking the obvious threat has a profound interest in making sure no
that strikes fear into the hearts of so many terrorist group acquires a nuclear weapon,
Americans, which is terrorism? Not at all. because they cannot be sure they will not
Sure, the United States has a terrorism be the target of a nuclear attack, either
problem. But it is a minor threat. There is by the terrorists or another country the
no question we fell victim to a spectacular terrorists strike. Nuclear terrorism, in short,
attack on September 11, but it did not is not a serious threat. And to the extent
cripple the United States in any meaningful that we should worry about it, the main
way and another attack of that magnitude remedy is to encourage and help other
is highly unlikely in the foreseeable future. states to place nuclear materials in highly
Indeed, there has not been a single instance secure custody.
over the past twelve years of a terrorist
organization exploding a primitive bomb
on American soil, much less striking a
major blow. Terrorismmost of it arising
C ontrary to what isolationists think,
there are three regions of the world
Europe, Northeast Asia and the Persian
from domestic groupswas a much bigger Gulfthat are indeed of vital strategic im-
problem in the United States during the portance to the United States. Of course,
1970s than it has been since the Twin Europe and Northeast Asia are important
Towers were toppled. because the worlds other great powers are
What about the possibility that a terrorist located in those regions, and they are the
group might obtain a nuclear weapon? Such only states that might acquire the capability
an occurrence would be a game changer, to threaten the United States in a serious
but the chances of that happening are way.
virtually nil. No nuclear-armed state is
going to supply terrorists with a nuclear 1 Keir A. Lieber and Daryl G. Press, Why States
weapon because it would have no control Wont Give Nuclear Weapons to Terrorists,
over how the recipients might use that International Security 38, no. 1 (2013).
foreseeable future. And the longer the civil countries. In other words, further American
war lasts, the stronger the jihadists will intervention would probably help spread
become within the opposition forces. the fire, not contain it.
If nothing else, one might argue that In theory, the United States could solve
removing Assad from power would deliver this contagion problem by invading and
a devastating blow to Hezbollah, which is occupying Syria, much the way it did in
supported by Syria as well as Iran. The first Iraq between 2003 and 2011. Thankfully,
problem with this claim is that the United there is zero chance that will happen.
States is not a mortal enemy of Hezbollah Thus, the best strategy for the Obama
and not in its crosshairs. Washington administration is to pursue a diplomatic
should not give it any incentive to target the solution.
United States. Furthermore, even if the flow But even if diplomacy fails and the war
of Iranian and Syrian arms to Hezbollah spreads beyond Syrias borders, it would
were cut off, it would remain a powerful not undermine American security in any
force in Lebanon and the broader region, meaningful way, as it would not lead to a
as it has deep roots and enjoys substantial single country dominating the Gulf and its
support among important segments of oil. Besides, every oil-producing country
Lebanese society. Moreover, the flow of has powerful incentives to sell its oil and
arms from Iran and Syria to Hezbollah generate revenue, whether it is embroiled in
would eventually start up again, because no a conflict or not.
matter who rules in Damascus, it is in their Lastly, there is the argument that
interest to support Hezbollah. That militant American credibility is on the line in Syria
organization directly threatens Israels and thus the United States must remain
northern border, which provides Syria deeply involved in that countrys politics.
with the only leverage it has for getting the To be sure, credibility would not even
Golan Heights back from Israel. be an issue if President Obama had not
What about the claim that the United foolishly drawn a red line over Syrian use
States should intervene in Syrias civil war of chemical weapons. One might counter
to prevent it from becoming a regional that the president had no choice but to rule
conflict? Its worth noting that the Obama the use of chemical weapons out of bounds,
administration helped precipitate this because they are especially heinous weapons
problem by attempting to remove Assad and there is a powerful norm against using
and failing, which helped exacerbate them.
the ongoing civil war. Furthermore, These counterarguments are not
if America gets more involved in the compelling. Despite all the hyperbole
conflict, Hezbollah, Iran and Russia are surrounding chemical weapons, they are
likely to increase their support for Assad, not weapons of mass destruction. They are
which would increase the prospect that certainly not in the same category as nuclear
the war would spill over into neighboring weapons. Israel, after all, has been willing
hostility toward the United States. But that country, which is what allows it to behave
fervor wears off once those leaders confront foolishly without jeopardizing its security.
the realities of exercising power inside and The unipolar moment, coupled with
outside of their countries borders. Plus, Americas geographical location and nuclear
the United States is enormously powerful, arsenal, creates a permissive environment
and almost always has substantial leverage for irresponsible behavior, which its leaders
in its dealings with other countries. Ceteris have been quick to exploit. The one notable
paribus, it is best for a foreign leader to get strategic cost of these interventionist
along with Uncle Sam; purposely picking policies is the terrorism problem. But that
a fight rarely makes sense. None of this is threat is not of great significance, which is
to deny that Americas interests sometimes why the United States is able to pursue the
clash with those of other countries. But that same policies that help cause this problem
does not mean the leadership on either side in the first place.
is responsible for the rivalry in those cases. Unlike the strategic costs, the economic
In sum, the best approach for the United costs of global dominance have been
States is not to intervene in other countries enormous. For starters, the United
to help influence what kind of political States has had to maintain a huge and
system they have or who governs them. sophisticated military with bases all over
The smart strategy is to let other peoples the world so that it can intervene anywhere
decide their own political fate, and then on the planet. Not surprisingly, its defense
use carrots and sticks to foster relations that budget dwarfs that of any other country; in
serve Americas interests. 2012, for example, the United States spent
more on defense ($682 billion) than the
whistle-blowers, not Obama, who is deeply comment that the governments authority
committed to government secrecy. to collect information on law-abiding
American citizens is essentially limitless.
military for attacking Syria. Hopefully, States dominates the Western Hemisphere.
the senior leadership and the rank and It should also use force when core strategic
file finally recognize they have been asked interests are threatened. But Washington
to fight losing wars that matter little for should stop intervening in the politics of
the security of the United States and that countries like Egypt and Syria and more
most of their fellow citizens consider not generally abandon its interventionist
worth fighting. There are sound reasons strategy of global domination, which has led
to limit how much criticism military to unending trouble. We might then begin
commanders can direct at civilian leaders to restore the tarnished liberal-democratic
and their policies. At the present moment, principles that once made America truly
however, the generals should push their exceptional and widely admired. n
T
wo and a half years after it began, military victory. But the comparison
the revolution was widely consid- illuminates a different point. Historically,
ered a quagmire, even a disaster. very few revolutions have been quick
Rebels had made disappointingly little successes. They have been messy, bloody,
headway against the forces of the hated long, drawn-out affairs. Victory has very
tyrant. The capital and the countrys sec- rarely come without numerous setbacks,
ond major city remained under his control. and, unfortunately, without abuses
Foreign powers had provided sympathy, but carried out by all sides. It has generally
very little real aid. And despite promising taken many years, even decades, for the
to respect human rights, rebel forces were real gains, if any, to become apparent. Yet
committing widespread abuses, including today, international public opinion and
murder, torture and destruction of prop- international institutions usually fail to
erty. In short, the bright hopes of an earlier recognize this historical reality. There is an
spring were fading fast. expectation that revolutions, where they
This may sound like a description of occur, must lead within a very short period
Syria today, but it also describes quite well to the establishment of stable democracy
the situation of another country: the young and a full panoply of human rights, or they
United States in the winter of 17771778. will be viewed as failures.
George Washington had taken refuge in C o n s i d e r, f o r i n s t a n c e , t h e
the miserable winter encampment of Valley disappointments that followed the Arab
Forge. Philadelphia (then the capital) and Spring and the resulting worldwide hand-
New York were both in British hands. wringing. Thomas Friedman, that great
France had not yet agreed to help the new barometer of elite American conventional
republic militarily. And in areas under rebel wisdom, wrote in May 2011 about the
control, loyalists were being persecutedfar young Arabs who had begun to rise up
more than most American school textbooks peacefully to gain the dignity, justice
admit. and self-rule that Bin Laden claimed
There is little reason to think that could be obtained only by murderous
conditions in Syria will turn around the violence. Less than two years later, he was
way they did in the United States between lamenting that the term Arab Spring
1778 and 1781, when the American has to be retired, and comparing events
revolutionaries managed to eke out a in the region to the seventeenth centurys
massively destructive Thirty Years War, in
David A. Bell is the Sidney and Ruth Lapidus which areas of Central Europe lost up to
Professor in the Era of North Atlantic Revolutions a third of their populations. Many other
at Princeton University. commentators throughout the world now
Revolution in our Government, implying exist, and would have made little sense
that the event was already finished and in to people, referring as it does to people
the past. or actions that actively drive revolutions
These ideas began to change in the forward. But in September 1790, the
late eighteenth century, with significant radical deputy Bertrand Barre referred to
consequences for the events that would the demolition of the Bastille as a truly
continue to convulse the Atlantic world revolutionary act, and soon his colleague
for half a century. In America, by 1779 it Georges Danton was describing himself
was becoming clear that the political and as a steadfast revolutionary. In 1792,
social transformations set in motion by Maximilien Robespierre renamed the
the War of Independence had yet to run executive committee of Pariss municipal
their course. In that year, Richard Henry government the General Revolutionary
Lee wrote to Thomas Jefferson about the Council, making it the first political
progress of our glorious revolution, and institution in history to bear such a title.
Jefferson himself finally began to use the Bakers colleague Dan Edelstein has
word in reference to American events. By added a further fascinating wrinkle to the
1780, John Adams was writing to his wife story, noting that by 17921793, the
Abigail about the whole course of this revolution seemed to be taking on a life
mighty revolution, treating it as something of its own, becoming, in the eyes of its
still taking place. Yet even then, he did advocates, a quasi-mythic force and a
not present it as a process he himself had source of political legitimacy. After armed
a hand in directing, but as a great natural crowds stormed the royal palace in 1792
upheaval sweeping him along. and overthrew Louis XVI, there were
It was in France where the most decisive calls to put the king on trial. The radical
conceptual transformation took place. Louis-Antoine Saint-Just, however, insisted
As the countrys old regime began to that the people had already delivered a
crumble in 1789, observers immediately verdict through their revolutionary action.
started to refer to what was going on as Any procedure that might exonerate the
a revolution in the traditional fashion. king therefore amounted to putting the
Then, within a matter of months, they Revolution itself on trial, in the words of
began speaking of it less as a sudden and his patron, Robespierre. A year later, with
cataclysmic event than as an ongoing process. France at war with much of Europe, Saint-
Soon they went even further, presenting Just made a remarkable speech demanding
the revolution as something that could be that the ruling National Convention
controlled and directed. Stanfords Keith formally suspend the new constitution
Baker, who has written luminously on this it had just approved, and declare the
shift, characterizes it as one from revolution government revolutionary until the end of
as fact to revolution as act. Before this hostilities. He insisted on a full overhaul of
moment, the word revolutionary did not the governments personnel and procedures,
bloodshed was necessary to achieve this tensions of representing different and higher
relatively limited goal. And, of course, in forms of human society. At the heart of
many other countriesRussia and China, these earlier ideological pretensions was the
most obviouslysimilarly long periods of idea that the means to these higher forms
revolutionary disruption have so far failed was a French-style revolution.
to produce similarly benign outcomes. Of course, even where free-market
democracy has become the preferred model,
I
n his book Diplomacy, Henry Kiss- moral perfection of itself as a test of its for-
inger concludes that the United States eign policy will achieve neither perfection
faces the challenge of reaching its nor security.3
goals in stages, each of which is an amal- This ever-present fusion of American
gam of American values and geopolitical values and national interests was evident
necessities.1 The recent debates about U.S. in the spring of 1971, as a crisis erupted
military options in Libya and Syria reflect in South Asia during Kissingers tenure
the enduring tension between these inter- as Richard Nixons national-security
twined, at times competing components of adviser. When the British Raj ended
our external relations. No U.S. statesman in 1947, a partition of the subcontinent
can ignore this dilemma, and none will find led to the creation of India and Pakistan
it easy to strike exactly the right balance be- as separate, estranged sovereign states.
tween the two, especially in times of crisis. Pakistan, envisioned as a homeland for
All would seek to simultaneously pursue South Asian Muslims, emerged with an
the promotion of the national interest and unusual bifurcated structure comprising
the protection of human rights. Kissinger, two noncontiguous majority-Muslim areas:
famous for advocating an American for- West Pakistan and East Pakistan. While
eign policy based on the national interest, united by a shared faith, they were divided
has long stressed that values and power are by language, ethnicity and one thousand
properly understood as mutually support- miles of Indian territory.
ing. As he argued in a 1973 speech, since Over the course of a fraught sequence
Americans have always held the view that of events from 1970 to 1972, a party
America stood for something above and advocating East Pakistani autonomy
beyond its material achievements, a pure- won a national parliamentary majority,
ly pragmatic policy would confuse allies and Pakistans two wings split. Amid
and eventually forfeit domestic support. Yet natural disaster (a cyclone of historic
when policy becomes excessively moralistic proportions struck the East on the eve
it may turn quixotic or dangerous, giving of the vote, killing up to half a million
way to ineffectual posturing or adventur- people and devastating fields and livestock),
istic crusades.2 The key to a sustainable
foreign policy, in his view, is the avoidance 1 Henry Kissinger, Diplomacy (New York: Simon &
of either extreme: A country that demands Schuster, 1994), 19.
2 Henry Kissinger, Moral Purposes and Policy
Robert D. Blackwill was deputy national-security Choices, (speech, Washington, dc, October 8,
adviser for strategic planning and U.S. ambassador 1973).
to India in the George W. Bush administration. 3 Diplomacy, 471.
trivializes the possibility that his human Humanitarian Intervention (New York: Alfred A.
rightsdominated policy preferences could Knopf, 2008), 8, 13.
have had profoundly damaging strategic 6 Diplomacy, 27.
able end to the Vietnam War (a conflict in the proper arrangements could be made
which half a million Americans were at war through the good offices of President Yahya
at the time of Nixons inauguration, but Khan.12
which public and elite opinion increasingly As Kissinger stresses, Zhou did not
rejected); and reduce tensions throughout want to risk subordinates thwarting of
Asia. All these crucial objectivesin which our common design by their haggling
success could fairly count as both a strate- over modalities. By keeping technical
gic and a moral achievementrequired a arrangements in the Pakistani channel, he
fundamental reorientation of U.S.-Chinese ensured discretion, high-level consideration,
relations. As Kissinger observes in White and expeditious decisions. 13 Bass,
House Years, The hostility between China ignoring the evident Chinese insistence
and the Soviet Union served our purposes on Pakistan, attacks the White Houses
best if we maintained closer relations with use of Yahya Khan as an intermediary as
each side than they did with each other. evidence of a gratuitous Nixonian affection
The rest could be left to the dynamic of for military strongmen. In addition to the
events.9 strong prc preference for Pakistan and the
Nixon and Kissingers decision in advantages of geographic proximity, another
October 1970 (before the Pakistani explanation is also pertinent: it is difficult
crisis) to reach out to China through the to imagine how it could have been arranged
Pakistanis is casually dismissed by Bass as for Kissinger to visit Beijing secretly from
one of many options and potentially the either Paris (a world capital) or Bucharest (a
worst. He suggests France and, curiously, prime target of Soviet penetration); secrecy
totalitarian Romania as plausible and was an essential requirement since Nixon
more ethical alternatives.10 Yet the United could risk neither premature U.S. domestic
States explored all three, and Beijing euphoria nor a public failure in Beijing.
unambiguously chose Pakistan. The first Nothing regarding this highly sensitive
explicit indication by China that a personal matter leaked from Pakistan, and Yahya
envoy of Nixon would be welcome in Khan discreetly managed the complex
Beijing came in December 1970 by way of
the Pakistani channel, with Chinese premier 9 Ibid., 712.
Zhou Enlai stressing, The United States 10 The Blood Telegram, 103. Romanias human-
knows that Pakistan is a great friend of rights record was arguably worse than Pakistans
China and therefore we attach importance before the East Pakistan crisis.
to the message.11 On April 27, 1971, after 11 Foreign Relations of the United States (frus ),
American replies through both Romania 19691976, vol. XVII, China, 19691972
and Pakistan, Beijing followed up through (Washington: Government Printing Office, 2006),
Islamabad and invited direct discussions 250.
between high-level responsible persons 12 Ibid., 301.
of their own American-made fighter jets interagency and international deliberations, Jordan
to the West Pakistan front. Bass expresses sent word on December 10 that it would send
indignation at this proposal, suggesting four aircraft. On the morning of December 16,
that it was undertaken to assist in the Kissinger reported to Nixon that Jordan had sent
repression of civilians in East Pakistan. He 17 planes; India declared a unilateral cease-fire
fails to explain that the discussion involved one hour later. See: Ibid., 750, 839.
transferring jets to West Pakistan during a 18 The Blood Telegram, 291, 107, 218.
war in which India was considering a drive 19 Richard Sisson and Leo E. Rose, War and
for total victory and an all-out destruction Secession: Pakistan, India, and the Creation of
of the Pakistani armed forces. In any case, Bangladesh (Berkeley: The University of California
it is not apparent what military role, if any, Press, 1990), 196200.
both the order of events and the ability democracy (27) but discounts that the elections,
of governments to bring about rapid intended to pave the way for civilian rule, produced
changes in other states internal practices. a genuinely fraught result.
was not of a magnitude to provide Washing- All this was achieved while carrying out a
ton with much leverage to pressure the leader- historic opening to China and ultimately
ship in Rawalpindi to change policies in East promoting dtente with the Soviet Union,
Pakistan to avoid the loss of aid. . . . By 1971 which backed India during the conflict.
Washington lacked much clout in Rawalpindi, It takes an obsessively strained reading to
particularly on issues that, in West Pakistani find in this record, as Bass does, one of the
eyes, struck at the very basis of their national worst moments of moral blindness in U.S.
existence.27 foreign policy.28
Much of the force of Basss narrative
On the particular issue of American arms derives from vivid, often-inflammatory
transfers to Pakistan, the total U.S. cutoff of quotations from the Nixon tapes, and there
the long-term weapons pipeline (which in is no shortage of those. No crass Nixon
any case was exceedingly modest) predict- statement or sarcastic aside seems to have
ably had no appreciable effect on the eth- gone unquoted. Yet presidential vulgarity
nic-cleansing actions of the Pakistani army was hardly a Nixon innovation. Dwight
in East Pakistan. As we have seen recently Eisenhower swore like the trooper he was.
with respect to Egypt, such U.S. punishing At a 1953 summit with Winston Churchill,
actions have a poor record of actually in- Eisenhower dismissed Churchills advice
fluencing foreign governments that believe to engage the post-Stalin Soviet leadership,
that they are fighting for the fundamental stating (as Churchills private secretary
future of their countries. recorded) that Russia was a woman of the
Even so, Bass has scoured the record streets and whether her dress was new, or
for coarse quotations to back his biased just the old one patched, it was certainly the
and incendiary charges, sidestepping (and same whore underneath. America intended
seeming purposefully to avoid) ample to drive her off her present beat into the
evidence that Nixon and Kissinger pursued back streets. 29 Lyndon Johnson once
a far more balanced and constructive pressed a point with the Greek ambassador
courseone in which the United States as follows: F*** your Parliament and your
emerged as the leading donor and organizer Constitution, America is an elephant,
of East Pakistans cyclone relief; provided Cyprus is a flea. Greece is a flea.30 In short,
hundreds of thousands of tons of grain
and extensive emergency supplies and 27 War and Secession, 260.
financial assistance to prevent a famine in 28 The Blood Telegram, xiiixiv.
East Pakistan and among refugees in India; 29 As quoted in Gnter Bischof and Stephen E.
attempted through diplomacy and pressure Ambrose, eds., Eisenhower: A Centenary Assessment
to avert an Indian-Pakistani conflict; and (Baton Rouge: lsu Press/Eisenhower Center for
then, when war broke out, pressed for an Leadership Studies, 1995), 146.
early un-sponsored cease-fire to prevent the 30 William Mallinson, Cyprus: A Modern History
B
etween the trial of Chelsea (former- and law-enforcement communities for
ly known as Bradley) Manning and not connecting the dots and for hoarding
the revelations of Edward Snowden, information, thus leaving America
the debate regarding the leakers and their vulnerable on 9/11. In the reckoning
information has focused primarily on the during the post-9/11 intelligence reforms,
balance between liberty and security, or the enduring counterintelligence principle
between government transparency and se- of need to know was transformed into
crecy. This is a necessary, even overdue, dis- need to share, a new paradigm that
cussion. But it is also important to reflect mandated that intelligence agencies share
upon the lasting damage these unauthor- information broadly across bureaucratic
ized disclosures will have on future U.S. lines and prepare analysis for the widest
intelligence collection. possible dissemination in order to prevent
Both Manning and Snowden betrayed intelligence stovepiping.
the public trust and disclosed national- This expansive conception of information
security information that they had sworn to sharing enabled a young army intelligence
protect. Both seriously impeded Americas analyst to access diplomatic cables from
future ability to recruit foreign sources that around the world that had nothing
provide human intelligence (humint). And to do with her core duties as a military-
both harmed Americas ability to enter into intelligence analyst serving in the Middle
cooperative relationships regarding signals East. This access illustrates the distance
intelligence (sigint) with foreign partner that the intelligence-community pendulum
intelligence agenciestermed liaison has swung in the direction of almost-blind
services in the business. information sharing. If an event of the
The degree of access with which Manning magnitude of 9/11 forced the pendulum
was entrustedhundreds of thousands of in the direction of increased sharing,
diplomatic cables, in addition to the so- more recent events such as the Manning
called war logs of Afghanistan and Iraq and Snowden leaks could reverse the trend
can be traced to the U.S. intelligence- back toward greater compartmentalization,
community reforms suggested by the especially involving mo re stringent
9/11 Commission after the terrorist information-technology protection.
attacks on September 11, 2001. The 9/11
Commission criticized the U.S. intelligence
foreign agent may decide against walking requires trust and discretion, how much
into a U.S. embassy, seeking out a U.S. more difficult is the task for intelligence
representative or accepting a follow-up officers?
meeting with an American. In fact, those The real question of the Manning case,
who would face the harshest retribution if beyond the damage of what information
exposed have the information most desired he has revealed, is the potential value to
by U.S. policy makers. American policy makers of the intelligence
American diplomats might also have that wont be collected. It is the discreet
additional trouble in the future engaging conversation with a potential cooperative
foreign interlocutors, and one can envision source that will not happen that is the
why. Diplomats may meet privately with intelligence price to be paid. To be sure,
each other and may say some typically Manning did not have access to cia
undiplomatic things in order to get past operational cable traffic (the internal
public posturing and move an issue c o m m u n i c a t i o n s o f t h e Na t i o n a l
forward. The American diplomat will Clandestine Service), but we can be
honestly relate the information provided reasonably confident that if he had it, he
by his interlocutor to Washington and will would have provided it to WikiLeaks, and
naturally include the name and position of the cost in human lives would have been
his interlocutor along with his interlocutors dramatically higher.
unvarnished remarks. In the era of The cia takes the protection of source
Manning, foreign government officials will identities extremely seriously, and even in
think twice about sharing frank thoughts a need to share culture, Manning did not
with their U.S. counterparts if they think have access to this sort of information. But
what they say will be online tomorrow. does a potential future human-intelligence
For instance, German Free Democratic source know exactly the types of cable traffic
Party (fdp) member Helmut Metzner was to which a low-level army analyst may or
identified in a WikiLeaks cable as providing may not have access? Or, rather, might he
candid information to the U.S. embassy in assess that people like Manning could know
Berlin about German government coalition his identity? What might he calculate the
negotiations in 2009. Metzner was fired chances to be that his name could be buried
from his position as chief of staff to the somewhere within hundreds of thousands
fdp chairman in light of his forward- of U.S. government cables? A dedicated
leaning approach to keeping U.S. officials counterintelligence service would surely
apprised of German political developments. invest the time and energy to comb through
Perhaps with the Metzner case in mind, tens of thousands of cables to findand
Patrick Kennedy, the under secretary of state connectdots that would lead to the
for management, characterized Mannings exposure of sources, as was vividly illustrated
disclosures as having a chilling effect on by the Iranian revolutionary students who
foreign officials. If the practice of diplomacy painstakingly reconstructed shredded cables
but the Americans were unable to act on its clandestine sources that it can continue
his request for a cooperative relationship. to work in the shadows, not under a
The British sis, hand in glove with the spotlight.
cia, was able to secure personal meetings It could reasonably be asked if the impact
with Penkovsky both in Moscow as well of the Manning and Snowden disclosures
as in London and Paris. Although unable might be worse than the results of a
to match the siss agent-handling resources traditional penetration agent (commonly
in Moscow, the cia provided two case referred to as a mole) working in the U.S.
officers, including the legendary George intelligence community. The combined
Kisevalter, as well as the primary reports and treachery of former fbi agent Robert
requirements officer to effectively handle Hanssen and erstwhile cia operations officer
Penkovsky and his enormous amount of Aldrich Ames led to dozens of deaths of
intelligence. American human sources and nearly
Although Penkovsky was only active crippled U.S. intelligence operations aimed
for a short period of time, he played a against the Soviet Union (and subsequently
critical role. It is fair to say that the Cuban Russia after the end of the Cold War).
missile crisis may not have been so deftly There are several critical elements to this
handled by the Kennedy administration important question, including the nature of
had it not been for Penkovskys intelligence the intelligence business and the evolution
on Soviet missile systems and artillery- of information technology in the practice
deployment philosophy. Even when the of intelligence. On one hand, despite
prospects of exfiltration dimmed, Penkovsky the Talibans claims, no deaths have been
stayed the course until his arrest in 1962 conclusively linked to the Snowden or
and subsequent execution in 1963. One Manning revelations, in stark contrast to
must wonder if the next Oleg Penkovsky Ames and Hanssen. On the other hand,
to volunteer to the cia will be even more hostile penetrations of U.S. intelligence do
courageous than the last one. He would not seem to have overly retarded offensive
have to be in an era where it appears recruitment operations, even in the Soviet
questionable whether America can keep bloc. Moreover, an intelligence officer who
its secrets from the front pages of major switches allegiances is well aware that the
media outlets and the Internet. In fact, the adversary can penetrate his new intelligence
next Penkovsky may well wish to volunteer service just as well as his original service.
his services but may be reticent lest his This has been an accepted part of spying
identity (or information traceable back to since time immemorial. Its why even the
him) be included in a possible deluge of most productive agents are eventually pulled
American classified information. To retain out of a dangerous assignment before the
its preeminence as well as its reputation risks outweigh the gains. Yet, Snowden
for excellence, American intelligence must and Manning represent a new dimension
satisfy both its official liaison partners and in espionage because mass disclosure of
T
he U.S. National Intelligence commonssea and air mediums that all
Council forecasts that China will nations rely on for trade and prosperity,
become the worlds largest economy but that none own. It would undermine
(measured by purchasing-power parity) in important international norms and
2022. Janes predicts that by 2015 Peoples encourage the application of force to more of
Liberation Army (pla) funding will double the worlds many persistent disputes. Finally,
to $238 billion, surpassing that of natos it would threaten to destabilize a region
eight largest militaries after the United haunted by history that has prospered during
States combined. The International Insti- nearly seven decades of U.S. forces helping
tute for Strategic Studies says that Chinas to preserve peace. No other nation has the
defense spending might surpass Americas capability and lack of territorial claims
as early as 2025. Even if these projections necessary to play this still-vital role.
prove exaggerated, economic, technical and A number of strategists appear to believe
industrial activity of an amazing scope and that America faces the threat of conflict
intensity is already affording China potent with China in the future, but that it can
military capabilities. This is especially the be avoided through accommodation or
case when such capabilities are applied prepared for over a protracted period. In
most likely through peacetime deterrence, fact, a different scenario is more likely: even
or a limited skirmish with a neighbor such as the two Pacific powers are sufficiently
as Vietnamto the near seas (the Yellow, interdependent to avoid direct hostilities
East China and South China Seas), cur- and share significant interests on which
rently a major Chinese strategic focus. they may cooperate increasinglyChina
Allowing Beijing to use force, or even the is already beginning to pose its greatest
threat of force, to alter the regional status challenge to U.S. influence and interests in
quo would have a number of pernicious the Asia-Pacific.
effects. It would undermine the functioning
of the most vibrant portion of the global
coherence, limiting support for military however, internal inefficiencies and external
approaches. This is especially true as the overextension slow growth. It is fashionable
U.S. provides substantial global-commons to trace such patterns in American power,
security gratis. but observers are only just beginning to
Even larger factors are in play, however. appreciate how this type of analysis might
More basic Chinese security achievements apply to China. While Beijingto its
could come undone. While Chinas credithas studiously avoided Moscows
continental neighbors remain reluctant Cold War military overstretch, domestically
to disrupt its borders, even cross-Strait it faces rent-seeking behavior, aging, rising
integrationhowever unlikely to happen labor costs and growing welfare demands.
rapidlyportends complex historical- Moreover, unlike other nations, China is
political questions that could convulse already facing such headwinds long before
Chinese society. Then there is the it has achieved high per capita income,
continued question of stability in Chinas comprehensive welfare programs or an
hinterlands, particularly given increasing innovative, high-efficiency economy that
cross-border trade and international can absorb rapid cost increases generated
religious and ethnocultural currents. Yet by temporary or permanent resource
even in Chinas core homeland territory, scarcity. Demographics represent one of
a wide range of domestic challenges Chinas most intractable growth challenges:
could rapidly rise to the fore. China faces three decades of a largely enforced one-
profound environmental damage, resource child policy combined with one of historys
constraints, worsening health problems, largest, most dramatic urbanization efforts
corruption and income inequalityall make it virtually impossible for Chinas
issues that greatly concern even the most already-low birthrate to recover. That
nationalistic Han citizens. Chinese leaders leaves transition to a consumption-driven
themselves acknowledge these problems economy as one of the few conceivable
existence and importance. ways to sustain rapid growth. Achieving this
Yet the tools available to meet these new growth model will require significant
challenges may be increasingly limited. As economic reforms, however, and it remains
the work of American political scientist to be seen how politically entrenched vested
Robert Gilpin demonstrates, great powers interests can be made to yield.
typically follow an S-curved growth
trajectory. Initially, national consolidation
and infrastructure construction, combined
with competitive labor costs, unleash rapid
W ith these gathering challenges come
both risks and opportunities. One
risk is that Beijing will seek to compen-
economic development. The resulting sate for waning economic achievements
increases in economic, military and political by bolstering its one other major source
power facilitate domestic consensus and of popular legitimacy: nationalism. While
international influence. Eventually, Chinas leaders are unlikely to seek diver-
I
n The Myth of Americas Decline, Josef was popularized by the late Samuel P.
Joffe offers a book-length version of Huntington, a neoconservative Democrat,
what, by now, is a familiar line of argu- in a 1988 article for Foreign Affairs. In the
mentthe antideclinist polemic. Joffe, the piece, he criticized Paul Kennedy (among
American-educated publisher of the Ger- others) for underestimating Americas power
man weekly Die Zeit, has been closely as- and potential, most notably in Kennedys
sociated with neoconservative foreign-policy 1987 surprise best seller The Rise and Fall of
thinkers on both sides of the Atlantic for a the Great Powers. Unlike neoconservatism,
generation. An engaging and entertaining however, declinism has not been adopted as
writer, widely read in history and current a proud label by any individual or school of
events, Joffe scores many hits against his thought.
targets. But he goes too far in trying to Ev e r s i n c e Hu n t i n g t o ns e s s a y,
counter the errors of declinism with a de- neoconservatism and declinism have been
fense of American triumphalism. Instead of closely linkedif only because thinkers
dispelling myths about America, he creates and writers of the neoconservative school
his own. have specialized in denouncing those who
T h e t e r m s d e c l i n i s m a n d do not share their optimistic vision of
neoconservatism have been the sibling Americas potential power and influence as
rivals of American foreign policy. Both declinists. An all-purpose term of abuse,
terms originated and passed into popular declinism allows neoconservatives to
usage around the same time, during the denounce their rivals across the political
spectrum, from paleoconservative and
Michael Lind is cofounder of the New America libertarian isolationists who have always
Foundation and author of Land of Promise: An supported a minimalist foreign policy to
Economic History of the United States (Harper, anti-interventionist liberals who insist on
2012). nation building at home and realists who
study of the perils of linear extrapolation Not so fast. The commercial policy of France
in geopolitics and the abuse by American influenced the early United States by several
reformers of the jeremiad as a genre. Unfor- channels. Alexander Hamilton, whose Re-
tunately, he defends a version of American port on Manufactures laid out the case for
triumphalism that is as unbalanced as the American import-substitution protection-
very declinism he scorns. It is not enough ism, learned much of his economics from
for Joffe to declare that the United States Malachy Postlethwayts mid-eighteenth-cen-
is not doomed to relative decadence and tury English translation of the Dictionnaire
decline; he must insist that Europe and Asia universel de commerce. It was written by the
are themselves doomed to decadence and sons of the French merchant Jacques Sa-
decline relative to the United States. Among vary, who codified French commercial law
other things, this inverted declinism makes for Jean-Baptiste Colbert, the great archi-
empire builder Terman then lured back Wil- technology. In the same way, the near-
liam Shockley. The inventor of the transistor monopoly status of the Western Union
set up Shockley Semiconductors, a prototypical Telegraph Company helped it bankroll
start-up. . . . The Shockley renegades went off some of the early experiments of Thomas
to found Fairchild Semiconductors with a $1.5 Edison. From the 1940s to the 1980s,
million investment from New Yorks Fairchild staid, corporate ibm led the evolution of the
Camera, the first of the venture capitalists or computer industry, making the careers of
angels who populate Sandhill Road on Stan- later entrepreneurs like Bill Gates and Steve
fords northern border today. Jobs possible.
Why are these details important? To the
Note what is left out of Joffes rather extent that the American-bred it revolution
conventional account of the tech revolution depended on procurement and research
as the product of audacious inventors by big government and big corporations,
in garages and visionary venture capital. and not only on geniuses in garages and
The U.S. military was a client of Termans venture capitalists, the contrast drawn by
Radio Research Laboratory at Harvard Joffe between the uncreative state capitalism
during World War II, and it remained the of Japan and China and the creative,
chief customer for most early computer individualistic liberal capitalism of the
technology for decades. In addition, United States is undermined. As Joseph
giant corporations, many of them defense Schumpeter observed in the middle of the
contractors like Lockheed, were early twentieth century, the site of invention has
tenants of Stanfords Industrial Park. Joffe moved from the labs of individual geniuses
neglects to tell his readers that Shockley, to corporate and government laboratories.
before founding Shockley Semiconductors, Research in subjects from dna to subatomic
worked from 1936 to 1955 at Bell Labs, particles requires enormous up-front
where he coinvented the transistor in 1947. investments in equipment and teams of
Elsewhere he mentions the telephone researchers.
company, only to disparage it: Recall So it remains today. China trounces
Ma Bell in twentieth-century America, US in Top500 supercomputer race was
a government-sponsored monopoly that the headline of a June 17, 2013, piece in
could hold back on new technology and Computerworld. The author of the piece,
keep long-distance rates sky-high. But Joab Jackson, claimed:
however laggard Bell might have been in
switching to wireless a few decades ago, its The supercomputing arms race is heating up
prolonged status as a government-sponsored again between the United States and China, as
monopoly, by letting it recycle profits China retakes the top spot in the 41st Top500
into Bell Labs research and development, listing of the worlds most powerful supercom-
allowed Bell to support the development of puters with Tianhe-2, an updated system that
the transistor, among much other modern was able to execute 33.86 petaflops, or 33.86
more or less coherent account of world his- survival and diffusion of liberal capitalism
tory and Americas role in it can be pieced and democracy in the twentieth and
together from the incidental comments he twenty-first centuries has been a historical
makes while attacking declinism. accident, contingent on the geopolitical
Like Francis Fukuyama and the Whig triumph of the United States over illiberal
historians of yesteryear, Joffe evidently great powers.
believes that liberal capitalism and The fascist model of modernity found
democracy are destined to supersede supporters from Latin America to the
other ways of organizing modern Middle East and Asia and was discredited
industrial societies. Democracy is a more only by the military defeat of Nazi
or less inevitable spin-off of the economic Germany, Imperial Japan and fascist Italy
growth produced by industrial capitalism: in World War II. Suppose that the United
The historical correlation is perfect. States had stayed out of World War II and
Growth favors democratization, and as that the world beyond the Americas had
democracy expands, growth shrinks as been divided among totalitarian empires. Is
the empowered masses will demand more it really the case that economic growth in a
for themselves and grant less to the state. victorious Nazi Germany or Imperial Japan
According to Joffe: would have led to successful demands for
democratizing those authoritarian, state-
The benign historical experience of the West capitalist regimes? Would the murderous
from wealth to liberty, though with murder- totalitarian lapses in Germany and Japan
ous totalitarian lapseshas jelled into a kind have been mere temporary blips in the
of economic determinism: with development benign historical experience of the West
comes democracy. . . . This deterministic blend on the road to liberal, capitalist democracy,
of Karl Marx and John Locke does hold for the absent the pulverization and occupation of
West, as well as for East Asias first risers, where Germany and Japan by the United States
it happened much faster. and its allies?
Similarly, the discrediting of Marxism-
Thus, todays authoritarian China will be Leninism and the wave of democratization
pressured to choose democracy by the very and marketization that followed the fall
economic success that it has enjoyed recent- of the Berlin Wall can be viewed more
ly under authoritarian rule. as a case of opportunistic emulation
The view that world history is moving of the triumphant superpower than as a
in one direction, toward free markets and vindication of a deterministic blend of
multiparty democracy, has become the Karl Marx and John Locke. The rapidity
conventional wisdom among Atlantic elites with which the nostrums of the New Left
since the end of the Cold War. A more of the era of Khrushchev and Mao gave
plausible minority view is that set forth by way within the global intelligentsia to
the Israeli scholar Azar Gat and others: the paeans to markets and democracy in the
A
lbert Einstein is said to have rec- inheritance.
ommended that everything should Even by Hermans own grandiloquent
be made as simple as possible, but standards, however, The Cave and the Light
not simpler. It is an injunction that Ar- is in a class of its own. It is a monument
thur Herman would have been well ad- not to the importance of historical thought
vised to heed when he embarked on the but to his own hollowness. He begins
writing of his latest book, The Cave and in bombast and ends in triviality. He is
the Light. But then oversimplification has a self-appointed life coach for Western
been at the heart of Hermans enterprise civilization.
from the outset. Anyone who has already
extruded works such as The Idea of Decline
in Western History, To Rule the Waves: How
the British Navy Shaped the Modern World,
A t the outset, he asseverates, Everything
we say, do, and see has been shaped in
one way or another by two classical Greek
Gandhi and Churchill: The Epic Rivalry that thinkers, Plato and Aristotle. That such
Destroyed an Empire and Forged Our Age, wisdom constitutes little more than the
Freedoms Forge: How American Business Pro- conventional thought inculcated in nine-
duced Victory in World War II and How the teenth-century British public schools does
Scots Invented the Modern World is clearly not seem to trouble Herman unduly. This is
not someone in whose imagination either in part because his project is to refute those
nuance or complexity can be assumed to in the contemporary West who, in his tell-
ing, dismiss these thinkers as dead white
David Rieff is the author of eight books, including males and the classics as having no future.
A Bed for the Night: Humanitarianism in Crisis Herman at times in his book takes a break
(Simon & Schuster, 2003) and At the Point of a from his breathless romp through Western
Gun: Democratic Dreams and Armed Intervention history and philosophy to settle scores real
(Simon & Schuster, 2005). and imagined with the global Leftin this
case, the cynical teaching assistants tag for moral food chainin Rands as well, such
History 101, From Plato to nato, is liter- a view is anathema. Late in The Cave and
ally accurate. But while he is a political con- the Light, Herman approvingly quotes
servative (currently a fellow at the American Rands assertion that everything that
Enterprise Institute) and an admirer of both makes us civilized beings, every rational
Friedrich Hayek and Ayn Rand, even he value that we possessincluding the birth
might have thought twice about the gran- of science, the industrial revolution, the
deur that was Greece, glory that was Rome creation of America, even the [logical]
approach. structure of our language, is the result of
This is where the second part of his thesis Aristotles influence. Hayeks view was
comes in, the one already limned in his far more nuanced (but then, compared
books subtitle, where Herman posits that with Rands, whose wasnt?), and he was
the conflicts in Western civilization ever less concerned with praising Aristotle
since ancient Greece have their roots in than with rejecting Platonism. For as his
the dichotomy between Aristotles vision denunciations of solidarity and altruism
of what he calls governing human beings in his book The Fatal Conceit make clear,
and Platos philosopher-king. To be sure, Hayek viewed Platonism as a kind of
Hermans heart is unquestionably with owners manual for totalitarianism and saw
Aristotle, as he makes clear in his broad socialism as Platonisms twentieth-century
praise for Rands aversion to Platonism avatar, much in the same way that Karl
and also in his description of Hayek Popper did. But unlike his intellectual
at the end of his life watching televised heroes, Herman insists on Western
images of the overthrow of Communism societys need for Platonism as well as
in Czechoslovakia in 1989. I told you Aristotelianism. Though he returns over
so, Hayek tells his son, to which Herman and over to Platonisms intrinsic faults, and,
adds, So had Aristotle. Given his political by extension, to its economic fatuities and
views, this Aristotelianism should come as the world-historical crimes to which it has
no surprise. Todays affluent, globalized given rise, from Bolshevism and the Gulag
material world, Herman writes, was to what Herman calls Platos American
largely made by Aristotles offspring. But offspringa term capacious enough
while he not only greatly prefers Aristotle, to include Josiah Royce, John Dewey,
but also taxes Platos intellectual and Woodrow Wilson and fdrHerman is
spiritual heirs with virtually every political adamant that Platonism remains key to the
tendency and historical development in Wests identity, and a necessary corrective to
European and global history that he Aristotelian dynamism, with its constant,
deplores, Herman nevertheless insists that stupefying potential for change.
our world still needs its Plato. This may seem contradictory (it certainly
In Hayeks terms, andto careen would have to Hayek and Rand, and surely
vertiginously down the intellectual and cannot sit well with many of Hermans
that you briefly mistake for a human voice men and great (or terrible) ideas all but
when he visited Toledo in 1140. And these exclusively determine the course of
are only two of many examples of such events. At times, Herman can be quite
poorly grounded speculation. shameless about this, as when, in his
A more serious defect is that Herman chapter describing the rise of Christianity
is an extraordinarily old-fashioned writer in the Roman world, he blandly opines
(not, to avoid misunderstanding, because that today, historians point to social and
he is a man of the political Right: so is economic factors to explain Christianitys
John Lukacs and his work suffers from no amazing spread. But the key factor was its
such infirmity), and an even more defiantly skill in seizing the high ground of Greek
retrograde thinker. Hermans practice thought, especially Plato.
as a historian is a throwback to what To call this an impoverished and partial
nineteenth-century German academics account not only of Christianitys encounter
I
n the early 1890s, when Theodore fell apart. Roosevelt, concluding his old
Roosevelt met William Howard Taft chum didnt measure up, turned on him
during their early stints as government with a polemical vengeance that negated
officials in Washington, Roosevelt said, the mutual affections of old. Going
One loves him at first sight. Later, as pres- after his former friend, first in an effort
ident, Roosevelt extolled the virtues of Taft, to wrest from him the 1912 Republican
then U.S. governor-general of the Philip- presidential nomination and then as an
pines: There is not in this Nation a higher independent general-election candidate,
or finer type of public servant than Gover- Roosevelt destroyed the Taft presidency
nor Taft. After Taft became Roosevelts war and brought down the Republican Party
secretary, the president reported to a friend in that years canvas. When the Taft forces
that the new cabinet chief was doing excel- prevailed in a typical credentials fight at the
lently, as I knew he would, and is the great- gop convention, tr seized upon it as proof
est comfort to me. Before going on vaca- of Tafts mendacity and corruption. The
tion, tr assured the nation that all would receiver of stolen goods is no better than
be well in Washington because I have left the thief, he declared. When Tafts political
Taft sitting on the lid. Subsequently, when standing began to wane, largely from trs
Taft expressed embarrassment about a news own attacks, he dismissed his erstwhile
article unflattering to Roosevelt that had companion as a dead cock in the pit. The
been spawned by a Taft campaign function- former president said, I care nothing for
ary, the president was unmoved. Good Tafts personal attitude toward me.
heavens, you beloved individual, he wrote, In the annals of American history,
suggesting Taft should get used to false few stories of personal fellowship are as
poignant and affecting as the story of the
Robert W. Merry is the political editor of The Roosevelt-Taft friendship and its brutal
National Interest and an author of books on disintegration. But it carries historical
American history and foreign policy. significance beyond the shifting personal
sentiments of two politicians. This after the sands of time have eroded the
particular story of personalities takes place sharp edges of animus, is restored. The
against the backdrop of the Republican authors narrative doesnt bring a strong
Partys emotion-laden effortand the focus to Roosevelts powerful views and
nations effort, and these two politicians actions on foreign policyhis vision of
effortsto grapple with the progressive America as preeminent global power,
movement and the pressing contradictions for example, or his dramatic decision to
and societal distortions created by send his Great White Fleet around the
industrialization. world as a display of U.S. naval prowess
Now the distinguished historian Doris and a spur to congressional support for
Kearns Goodwin scrutinizes the Roosevelt- his cherished naval buildup. Nor does she
Taft saga, bringing to it her penchant for trace in elaborate detail the challenging
presenting history through the prism of developments in the Philippines, called
personal storytelling. In No Ordinary Time, by tr biographer Kathleen Dalton the
she illuminated the Franklin Roosevelt war that would not go away (although
presidency by probing the complex and tr finally brought it to a conclusion
mysterious marriage of Franklin and through a notable level of military brutality
Eleanor. In Team of Rivals, which examined directed against insurgent forces). Rather,
Abraham Lincolns unusual decision to fill this is a book about the emergence of
his cabinet with his political competitors, the progressive impulse, which sought to
she not only laid bare crucial elements of apply federal intervention to thwart the
Lincolns political temperament but also corrupt consolidation of wealth and power
presented a panoramic survey of his time within industrial America. Goodwin clearly
and gave currency to a term that now believes this counterforce was necessary
figures prominently in the nations political to protect ordinary Americans from the
lexicon. And now, with The Bully Pulpit, unchecked machinations of the selfish
she deciphers a pivotal time in American rich, industrial titans, and corrupt local
politics through the moving tale of tr and state governments.
and Will, girded by her characteristic deft She is correct, of course. The advent of
narrative talents and exhaustive research. American industrialization had generated
And theres a bonus: she weaves into her substantial economic growth through the
narrative the story of S. S. McClures latter half of the nineteenth century, and
famous progressive magazine, named that in turn had fostered the creation of
after himself and dedicated to the highest vast new wealth. The Republican Party,
standards of expository reporting and lucid as the champion of this development,
writing. enjoyed a dominant position in American
Go o d w i ns n a r r a t i ve t a k e s o n a politics. But the party was beginning to
particularly powerful drive as the tr- falter at centurys end as it failed to address
Taft friendship crumblesand then, the attendant problems of the industrial
kind of political capital that would have sought to exploit his landslide reelection
been required for such a fight against party victory of 1936 by packing the Supreme
bosses committed to protectionist policies. Court.
Indeed, Roosevelt constantly expressed But Theodore Roosevelt, with his big
h i s p re f e re n c e f o r m i d d l e - g ro u n d domestic initiatives, had altered the
approaches that raised the ire of both political landscape of America and thus
laissez-faire conservatives and more radical had emerged as a leader of destiny among
elements of the progressive movement. American presidents. Accepting, based on
Even as New York governor, he confessed his two-term commitment, that he must
that he wasnt sure which he regarded with relinquish the presidency, he deftly fostered
the most unaffected dreadthe machine the election of Taft as his successor and then
politician or the fool reformer. He added headed off to Africa for a year of big-game
that he was emphatically not one of the hunting, confident that his friend would
fool reformers. As president he declared carry on his policies. Upon his return, he
that there is no worse enemy of the wage- thought otherwise.
worker than the man who condones mob
violence in any shape or who preaches class
hatred. He identified the rock of class
hatred as the greatest and most dangerous
T hroughout their friendship and in-
tertwined careers, Roosevelt and Taft
had been a powerful combination, com-
rock in the course of any republic. plementing each others weaknesses and
Second, Roosevelt found that during the foibles. That was in part what each appreci-
latter part of his seven-year presidency he ated about the other. Roosevelt the impetu-
no longer possessed the political clout to ous, instinct-driven politician appreciated
get his initiatives through Congress. He Tafts measured, careful decision making.
attributed this to the lame duck effect Taft admired Roosevelts ability to size up
of his promise to the American people, a political situation instantly and seize the
when he ran for a second term, that he initiative on it. Roosevelt wrote: He has
wouldnt seek a third. Goodwin credits nothing to overcome when he meets people.
this rationale, and no doubt it contributed I realize that I have always got to overcome
to his diminished political force as his a little something before I get to the heart
White House tenure wound down. But of people. . . . I almost envy a man pos-
another factor was that the country had sessing a personality like Tafts. For his
absorbed about as much progressivism as part, Taft often wished he could incorporate
it was prepared to handle at that time in some of Roosevelts quick insightfulness and
its history, absent the kind of crisis that scintillating use of the language. I wish I
emerged a generation later with the Great could make a good speech, he confessed to
Depression. Indeed, even Roosevelts distant his wife, adding that a recent performance
cousin, Franklin Roosevelt, found his New in Michigan had left a bad taste in my
Deal initiatives reaching their limit after he mouth.