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4.1 Commercial
BakuTbilisiCeyhan is an excellent example of a commercially viable midstream
development supported by a world-class upstream resource, creating a compelling
private-sector investment opportunity. As a basic premise, pipeline developments
must be robust commercially both on a standalone basis (ie, as revenue-generating
businesses in their own right) and as a tool implemented to monetise the resource
base underpinning the project.17 We have seen a tendency on the part of states
occasionally to promote projects that may have arguable local and regional benefits,
but that simply cannot achieve success given the dearth of supply or the existence of
competing, established pipeline or other export possibilities.18 Pipelines of any
significant scale will likely have a monopolistic feature that will be the bedrock of
their success; therefore, in regions that host alternative transportation and transit
possibilities, the likely success of large-scale greenfield pipeline developments that
lack a clear revenue steam whether through a dedicated supply source or take-or-pay
or ship-or-pay commitments from creditable shippers is questionable.19
In terms of other key commercial issues, the structuring of business models for
transboundary pipelines is tending to move away from the purely private-sector
producer pipeline model. Increasingly, investor/developers will be required to
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