22/03/2017 BarclaysEconomicsResearch|InstantInsights

EconomicsResearch|InstantInsights
21March2017

FabioFois +390263722637 fabio.fois@barclays.com Barclays,UK Completed:21Mar17,13:20GMT

FabriceMontagne +44(0)2077733277 fabrice.montagne@barclays.com Barclays,UK Released:21Mar17,13:20GMT
HenrySkeoch +44(0)2077737917 henry.skeoch@barclays.com Barclays,UK

UKInflationProfileUpdate

Coregatheringmomentum
Wehaverevisedourinflationprofileforthisyearandnext

Weforecastheadline/coreCPIinflationtoaverage2.7%/2.4%in2017and2.2%/2.1%in2018,versusourpreviousexpectationof2.5%/2.1%and
2.1%/2.1%.WeforecastRPItoaverage3.6%and3.2%in2017and2018,upfrom3.2%and3.1%previously(Figures1).

For2017,weexpectcoreinflationtoaccelerateasaresultofongoingFXpassthroughfromnonenergyindustrialgoodsprices(Figure2)whichweexpectto
continuetocontributepositivelytoheadlineinflation.Wealsofactorinfurthersupporttoservicespricesstemmingfromrecentcatchingupofservicessector
wages(Figure3).Goinginto2018,weanticipatethatsupportstemmingfromthecurrencychannelwillremain,whileservicesinflationislikelytostabiliseas
wedon'tthinkrecentincreasesintheservicessectorrepresentasustainabletrendheadingtowardsBrexitimplementation(Figure4).

Wehaveincorporatedestimatesfromindirecttaxchangestoalcohol&tobaccowithinourinflationprojections,whichweexpecttohavethegreatesteffectin
Marchgiventheearlybudgettiming.Wehavealsoassumedtobaccopricesrisejustover2%inJuneasaresultoftheintroductionofaMinimumEffectiveTax
oncigarettes.TheONSisscheduledtopublishaformalestimateoftheeffectsoftheBudgetonUKinflationtomorrowmorning.Ourlatestprofileupdatealso
incorporatesallannouncedchangestohouseholdenergyprices,whichtakeeffectinAprilandMay.

ForRPI,wehaverevisedourRPICPIbasisprojectionsslightlyhigher,mostlyduetohousepricesprovingstickierthanwehadexpectedbutalsotoaccountfor
thehigherweightingofthiscomponent.WealsoassumeadegreeofpersistencefromtheupsidesurpriseintheFebruarydatagiventhewideningofthe
formulaeffect.

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Monetarypolicyimplications

AconsequenceofallthisisthatsomeMPCmembersmightbetemptedtoreadintothejumpincoreinflationandconcludethattheBoEshouldhiketocounter
pricerisks(readalsoMarchBoEMPC:Moodswings,16March17).However,aswehighlightabove,webelievethatthecurrentupsidetrendinserviceinflation
reflectsbusinessestryingtorestoremarginsonthebackofpastwageincreases,ratherthananoverheatingeconomy.Indeed,Q4nationalaccountshowthat
companieshavebeenputtingtheirhousesinorderasproductivityshowedsignsofrevivalwhileemploymentgrowthslowed.Passingoncostincreases
whilethereisstilltimemayhencebepartofthatsamedrivebycompaniestoprepareformorechallengingtimesahead.Forhouseholds,thismeansmore
inflationandpossiblyevenlessrealincomegrowthdowntheroad.Henceatthisstage,whilemoreupsidepressurescouldbepassedthroughtoheadline
inflation,wecontinuetobelievethatthenatureofthatadditionalinflationremainstemporarybynature.Accordingly,weprettymuchagreewithGovernor
Carneythismorningcallingformarketsnottooverreactinthefaceofasingledatapoint.

Analyst(s)Certification(s):
We,FabioFois,FabriceMontagneandHenrySkeoch,herebycertify(1)thattheviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportaccuratelyreflectourpersonalviews
aboutanyorallofthesubjectsecuritiesorissuersreferredtointhisresearchreportand(2)nopartofourcompensationwas,isorwillbedirectlyor
indirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisresearchreport.

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