Documente Academic
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CALCEDONIA ENACHE
Colecia
Cercetare avansat postdoctoral n tiine economice
ISBN 978-606-505-978-8
Editura ASE
Bucureti
2015
Copyright 2015, Calcedonia Enache
Toate drepturile asupra acestei ediii sunt rezervate autorului.
Editura ASE
Piaa Roman nr. 6, sector 1, Bucureti, Romnia
cod 010374
www.ase.ro
www.editura.ase.ro
editura@ase.ro
Refereni:
Prof. univ. dr. Gabriela IGU
Prof. univ. dr. Eugeniu URLEA
ISBN 978-606-505-978-8
Autorul i asum ntreaga responsabilitate pentru ideile exprimate, pentru originalitatea materialului i pentru
sursele bibliografice menionate.
Aceast lucrare a fost cofinanat din Fondul Social European, prin Programul Operaional Sectorial Dezvoltarea
Resurselor Umane 2007-2013, proiect POSDRU/159/1.5/S/142115 Performan i excelen n cercetarea
doctoral i postdoctoral n domeniul tiinelor economice din Romnia.
CUPRINS
Introducere ................................................................................................................................. 5
Capitolul 1. Metode pentru identificarea, evaluarea i prognoza oscilaiilor sistematice
n economia real..................................................................................................... 7
1.1 Serii de timp. Aspecte teoretice ........................................................................................ 7
Surse bibliografice.................................................................................................................... 83
Anexa I ............................................................................................................................... 90
Anexa II ............................................................................................................................... 92
Anexa III ............................................................................................................................... 96
3
CONTENTS
Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 5
Chapter 1. Methods for the identification, assessment and forecast of the systematic
oscillations in the real economy .............................................................................. 7
1.1 Time series. Theoretical issues......................................................................................... 7
1.2 Analysis items needed to assess the systematic oscillation ............................................. 9
1.3 Measurements in the field of systematic oscillations .................................................... 11
1.3.1 Lawrence Klein model.............................................................................................. 11
1.3.2 Buys Ballot model .................................................................................................... 16
1.3.3 Spectral analysis. ARIMA models ........................................................................... 22
1.3.4 Calot model............................................................................................................... 30
1.3.5 Holt Winters model .................................................................................................. 36
Chapter 2. Structural autoregressive vector models ................................................................. 47
2.1 General considerations .................................................................................................... 47
2.2 Food consumption in Romania a dynamic and structural analysis .............................. 47
2.3 Estimating a structural VAR model ................................................................................ 51
2.4 Data description, modelling, results and interpretation .................................................. 53
Chapter 3. Models with cointegrating vectors and error correction vectors ............................ 61
3.1 General considerations .................................................................................................... 61
3.2 Romanias foreign trade in agricultural products with developing countries -
a dynamic and structural analysis................................................................................... 61
3.3 Estimating a VEC model ................................................................................................ 65
3.4 Data description, modelling, results and interpretation .................................................. 67
Summary ............................................................................................................................... 73
Bibliography ............................................................................................................................. 83
Annex I ............................................................................................................................... 90
Annex II ............................................................................................................................... 92
4
Introducere
Lucrarea a fost elaborat ntr-o succesiune logic a realizrii unor studii econometrice
complexe, punnd accentul asupra instrumentelor analizei cantitative pe care le impune
cercetarea economiei reale.
Prima parte a lucrrii prezint o serie de modele particulare pentru studiul sezonalitii, utile
pentru analiza i predicia economic pe termen scurt. Examinarea fluctuaiilor sistematice
reprezint un domeniu deosebit de important i actual pentru cercetarea tiinific, elaborarea
programelor naionale de dezvoltare durabil i activitatea practic din ara noastr.
Partea a doua a lucrrii este dedicat metodei autoregresiei vectoriale structurale, n care
variabilele investigate sunt de tip efect i analizate mpreun. Am optat pentru analiza de tip
VAR ntruct fenomenele economice se comport ca sisteme dinamice, cu interdependen
biunivoc.
Ultima parte a lucrrii expune o metodologie ce are drept fundament studiul vectorilor de
cointegrare i a vectorilor de corecie a erorilor, ce admite prin aciunea de generare a datelor,
determinarea elementelor pe termen lung i a celor pe termen scurt. Identificarea prezenei
unui trend stohastic comun ntre dou sau mai multe variabile constituie baza pentru analiza
dinamicii pe termen scurt.
Orientarea lucrrii ctre partea aplicativ a studierii fenomenelor din economia real este
evideniat prin aplicaii la date concrete, preluate din diferitele surse statistice oficiale.
O contribuie important asupra tratrii unora dintre problemele care fac obiectul acestei
lucrri l-a avut efectuarea stagiului extern de mobilitate la Departamentul de tiine Statistice
din cadrul universitii La Sapienza din Roma, care s-a finalizat cu susinerea seminarului
tiinific cu titlul Determinants of the Demand for Food Products in Romania. Measuring
5
Methods and Techniques. De asemenea, amplele dezbateri la care am participat la Institutul
de Statistic al Italiei (ISTAT), dar i schimburile de informaii i sugestiile primite n urma
prezentrii a opt lucrri tiinifice n cadrul unor conferine internaionale, care s-au desfurat
la Amsterdam, Bucureti, Iai i Milano, m-au ajutat s-mi mbuntesc nivelul de cunotine
statistice i econometrice.
Doresc s-i mulumesc, pe aceast cale, domnului prof.univ.dr. Constantin Mitru, care, n
calitatea sa de tutore, m-a tratat cu exigen profesional, nelegere i ncurajri permanente
n efortul pe care l-a cerut un asemenea act creativ.
6
Capitolul 1. Metode pentru identificarea, evaluarea i prognoza oscilaiilor sistematice
n economia real
Seria de timp reprezint o paralel ntre dou iruri de date, n care primul ir indic variaia
de timp, iar cel de-al doilea ir variaia variabilei investigate. Notnd variabila investigat cu
Y (unde Y 1, n ), iar variabila de timp cu t (unde t 1, n ) rezult c seria este alctuit din
n+1 termeni. n aceste condiii, se poate scrie relaia:
Y= f(t) [1.1]
7
Funcia de autocorelaie, notat cu ( ) , msoar legtura ntre valorile seriei la diferite
intervale de timp:
Cov(Yt , Yt ) [1.2]
() Corr (Yt , Yt )
D(Yt ) D(Yt )
( )
( )
(0)
Funcia de autocorelaie are urmtoarele proprieti:
(0) 1
( ) ( ) , 0,1,...
( ) 1, 0,1,...
n plus:
Dei un proces stohastic are unic structura covarianei, reciproca n general nu este
adevrat. Este posibil sa existe cel puin dou procese stohastice cu aceeai ( )
(Jenkins &Watt, 1968).
Matricea Toeplitz este obinut prin funcia de autocorelaie a unui proces staionar.
Aceasta este o matrice simetric, pozitiv definit.
Elementele din = ( (1) ,..., ()) i din = ( (1),, ()) sunt n dubl coresponden.
Pentru a calcula coeficienii de autocorelaie parial se utilizeaz algoritmul Durbin-Levinson
(vezi Levinson, 1947 i Durbin, 1960).
8
1.2 Elemente de analiz necesare evalurii oscilaiilor sistematice
O serie de timp care conine componenta trend f(t), componenta sezonier s(t) i componenta
rezidual u(t) poate fi descris cu ajutorul unui model, aditiv sau multiplicativ, de forma:
yt f (t ) s(t ) u(t ) [1.4] sau yt f (t ) s(t ) u (t ) [1.5].
Prin trend sau tendin de lung durat se nelege linia general de evoluie a unui fenomen n
decursul unui interval de timp. Tendina poate fi: secular; de durat medie (10-20 ani); de
durat scurt (3-10 ani).
Componenta sezonier se manifest sub form de fluctuaii la perioade mai mici de un an.
Componenta rezidual determin variaii neprevzute, sub form de abateri accidentale ntr-o
serie de timp. ntruct componenta rezidual este aleatoare, efectele acesteia sunt dificil de
prognozat.
Metoda grafic i metoda analizei dispersionale sunt utilizate pentru a determina structura
modelului, pe baza cruia poate fi studiat o serie de timp.
Metoda grafic presupune construirea de curbe care se suprapun, realizate pe intervale
subanuale de timp j.
yij
0 j1 j2 j3 jk j
9
yt yt
trend trend
0 t 0 t
Model aditiv Model multiplicativ
n care:
y i - media anului i ( i, n );
y j - media subperioadei j ( j 1, m );
S y2 S y2 / t S y2 / s S y2 / u [1.10]
S y2 / s S y2 / u
F 2
: , pentru m-1 i (n-1)(m-1) grade de libertate [1.12]
m 1 (n 1)(m 1)
calc
10
Dac Fcalc > Ftab se apreciaz c forma modelului de ajustare este: yt f (t ) s(t ) u(t ) sau
yt f (t ) s(t ) u (t ) .
11
24000
20000
milioane lei
16000
12000
8000
4000
0
T1 2007
T2 2007
T3 2007
T4 2007
T1 2008
T2 2008
T3 2008
T4 2008
T1 2009
T2 2009
T3 2009
T4 2009
T1 2010
T2 2010
T3 2010
T4 2010
T1 2011
T2 2011
T3 2011
T4 2011
T1 2012
T2 2012
T3 2012
T4 2012
T1 2013
T2 2013
T3 2013
T4 2013
Figura 1.1 Evoluia valorii adugate brute din agricultur,
silvicultur i pescuit, n termeni reali, n perioada T1 2007- T4 2013
Sursa: http://statistici.insse.ro/shop/
12
Variable: VABA, Distribution: Log-normal
Chi-Square test = 1,45165, df = 1 (adjusted) , p = 0,22826
11
10
9
No. of observations
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2312,5 4625,0 6937,5 9250,0 11562,5 13875,0 16187,5 18500,0 20812,5
Category (upper limits)
Autocorrelation Function
(Standard errors are white-noise estimates)
Lag Corr. S.E. Q p
1 +,040 ,1793 ,05 ,8229
2 -,686 ,1759 15,25 ,0005
3 +,010 ,1725 15,26 ,0016
4 +,772 ,1690 36,12 ,0000
5 -,038 ,1655 36,17 ,0000
6 -,649 ,1618 52,27 ,0000
7 +,020 ,1581 52,28 ,0000
8 +,658 ,1543 70,49 ,0000
9 -,033 ,1504 70,54 ,0000
10 -,515 ,1464 82,93 ,0000
11 +,012 ,1423 82,93 ,0000
12 +,490 ,1380 95,53 ,0000
13 -,049 ,1336 95,67 ,0000
14 -,425 ,1291 106,5 ,0000
15 +,009 ,1244 106,5 ,0000
0 0
-1,0 -0,5 0,0 0,5 1,0
Conf . Limit
13
Partial Autocorrelation Function
(Standard errors assume AR order of k-1)
Lag Corr. S.E.
1 +,040 ,1890
2 -,689 ,1890
3 +,161 ,1890
4 +,555 ,1890
5 -,238 ,1890
6 -,020 ,1890
7 -,018 ,1890
8 +,054 ,1890
9 +,056 ,1890
10 +,170 ,1890
11 -,133 ,1890
12 -,093 ,1890
13 +,002 ,1890
14 -,042 ,1890
15 +,015 ,1890
0
-1,0 -0,5 0,0 0,5 1,0
Conf . Limit
ANOVAb
14
Coefficientsa
Unstandardized Standardized
Coefficients Coefficients 95% Confidence Interval for B
Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig. Lower Bound Upper Bound
1 (Constant) 6682,157 822,266 8,127 ,000 4981,171 8383,144
t 122,971 36,339 ,206 3,384 ,003 47,797 198,144
T1 -6188,646 829,461 -,555 -7,461 ,000 -7904,517 -4472,774
T2 -4328,273 825,472 -,388 -5,243 ,000 -6035,891 -2620,655
T3 5270,199 823,068 ,473 6,403 ,000 3567,552 6972,846
a. Dependent Variable: VABA
Se apreciaz pentru trimestrul I: Y t b0 b1t b2 pentru trimestrul II: Y t b0 b1t b3
pentru trimestrul III: Y t b0 b1t b4 pentru trimestrul IV modelul liniar de regresie
estimat prin M.C.M.M.P. devine:
Yt 6682 ,157 122 ,971t 6188 ,646T1 4328 ,273T 2 5270 ,199T 3 .
Analiznd rezultatele obinute, se constat c modelul de regresie construit este valid, dup
cum a rezultat n urma aplicrii testului Fisher Snedecor (Fcalc= 63,107; p-value=0), el
explicnd 91,6 la sut din variaia valorii adugate brute a agriculturii, silviculturii i
pescuitului.
Toi parametrii modelului sunt semnificativi statistic, afirmaie verificat prin utilizarea
testului Student pentru pragurile de semnificaie indicate n tabelele cu rezultate, ct i prin
faptul c limitele inferioare i superioare ale intervalelor de ncredere estimate pentru acetia
prezint acelai semn. n aceste condiii:
valoarea coeficientului b2 tb2 = - 7,461; p-value = 0,000oglindete faptul c, n
medie, n trimestrul I comparativ cu trimestrul IV, nivelul VABA a fost mai mic cu
6188,646 milioane lei, datorit rezultatelor modeste pe segmentul zootehnic, care este
dependent de producia vegetal i de factorii climaterici;
valoarea coeficientului b3 tb3 = - 5,243; p-value = 0,000reflect faptul c, n medie,
n trimestrul II fa de trimestrul IV, nivelul VABA a fost mai redus cu 4328,273
milioane lei, ndeosebi datorit ecartului ridicat ntre dinamica produciei i cea a
consumului intermediar al ramurii;
15
valoarea coeficientului b4 tb4 =6,403; p-value = 0,000indic faptul c, n medie, n
trimestrul III comparativ cu trimestrul IV, nivelul VABA a fost mai mare cu 5270,199
milioane lei, n principal pe fondul rezultatelor pozitive nregistrate n producia
vegetal.
n urma aplicrii testului Durbin Watson pentru testarea autocorelrii reziduurilor, s-a obinut
o valoare calculat a statisticii dcalc=1,839. Prin compararea cu cele dou valori teoretice
d1=1,10 i d2=1,75 ( =0,05, k=4, n=28) se constat c d2 < DW< 4-d2, deci erorile nu sunt
autocorelate.
Pentru trimestrele I i II ale anului 2014, nivelurile previzionate ale VABA sunt 4059,67
milioane lei i 6043,01 milioane lei (estimri punctuale), n timp ce intervalele de ncredere
ale prognozei, estimate cu un prag de semnificaie =0,05 devin [666,793; 7452,547],
respectiv [2626,01; 9460,01].
Modelul Buys Ballot poate fi utilizat, dac seria de timp respect simultan condiiile
urmtoare:
tendina general este liniar: yt at b;
sezonalitatea este constant: sj = st = constant,
unde:
t j m(i 1);
___
j 1, m - numrul perioadelor subanuale;
___
i 1, n - numrul perioadelor (ani);
perturbaia, ut, este aleatoare, de tip bruit blanc.
n aceste condiii, se folosete un model, n variant aditiv, de forma:
y t at b s j u t [1.15]
16
Prin utilizarea M.C.M.M.P, se estimeaz parametrii a, bj pe baza crora se vor determina
coeficienii de sezonalitate, sj, i valoarea termenului b. n acest sens, se utilizeaz
urmtoarele relaii:
n m y ij n 1 n m
1
a i y [1.17]
n(n 1) i 1 j 1 m 2m i 1 j 1
2 ij
n m yij nm 1
b a [1.18]
i 1 j 1 nm 2
s
j 1
j ln( s j ) 0 s j e 0 1 [1.21]
j 1 j 1
Modelul Buys Ballot poate fi folosit pentru prognoza fenomenului y n orizontul (T, T+W),
prin utilizarea relaiei:
yT k a[ j m(i k 1)] b s j , [1.22]
Modelul Buys Ballot este utilizat pentru examinarea seriei de date a ratei de ocupare a
populaiei n vrst de munc n agricultur, silvicultur i pescuit, n perioada T1 2008- T4
2013.
17
17,5
17,0
16,5
16,0
la sut
15,5
15,0
14,5
14,0
13,5
2008
2008
2008
2008
2009
2009
2009
2009
2010
2010
2010
2010
2011
2011
2011
2011
2012
2012
2012
2012
2013
2013
2013
2013
T1
T2
T3
T4
T1
T2
T3
T4
T1
T2
T3
T4
T1
T2
T3
T4
T1
T2
T3
T4
T1
T2
T3
T4
Figura 1.4 Evoluia ratei de ocupare a populaiei
n vrst de munc n agricultur, silvicultur i pescuit,
n perioada T1 2008-T4 2013
Sursa: Calcule proprii pe baza datelor EUROSTAT
Indicatori descriptivi
Tabel 1.3
18
media
n anul 2013, populaia ocupat n agricultur, silvicultur i pescuit s-a cifrat la 2634,04 mii
persoane, consemnnd cela mai nalt nivel pentru grupa de vrst 35-64 ani (598,9 mii
persoane), iar cel mai redus pentru grupa de vrst 15-24 ani (255,5 mii persoane). Distribuia
populaiei ocupate n agricultur, silvicultur i pescuit, dup nivelul de instruire evideniaz
faptul c ponderile cele mai mari au aparinut absolvenilor din nvmntul gimnazial (46,25
la sut) i profesional (22,61 la sut). Ponderea persoanelor cu studii universitare a fost de
1,49 la sut, iar cea a persoanelor cu nivel de instruire primar sau fr coal absolvit de
10,93 la sut. Lucrtorii pe cont propriu i lucrtorii familiali neremunerai au reprezentat
92,63 la sut din populaia ocupat n agricultur, silvicultur i pescuit i au locuit n
proporie de 89,33 la sut n mediul rural. La nivelul sectorului agricol, durata medie efectiv
a sptmnii de lucru a fost de 34,4 ore, mai puin cu 4,8 ore dect media UE27. Incidena
subocuprii s-a situat la 6,9 la sut, cu 0,1 puncte procentuale mai mult fa de nivelul
nregistrat n anul 2012. Rata locurilor de munc vacante pentru grupa major 6 - agricultori
i lucrtori calificai n agricultur, silvicultur i pescuit - n conformitate cu Clasificarea
Ocupaiilor din Romnia (COR), a fost de 0,35 la sut, comparativ cu 1,78 la sut n anul
2008. Numrul omerilor cu experien n munc (cei care au lucrat nainte de a intra n
omaj n agricultur) s-a cifrat la 58,9 mii persoane, nregistrnd o cretere comparativ cu anul
19
2012, pe de o parte n valoare absolut, iar pe de alt parte ca pondere n totalul omerilor (cu
4,0 mii persoane, respectiv cu 0,24 puncte procentuale).
Pentru a putea constata dac seria de date privind rata de ocupare a populaiei n vrst de
munc n agricultur, silvicultur i pescuit, n intervalul T1 2008 T4 2013, prezint oscilaii
sezoniere, am determinat coeficienii de autocorelaie i autocorelaie parial, cu ajutorul
pachetului de programe Statistica modulul Time Series - Arima.
Autocorrelation Function
(Standard errors are white-noise estimates)
Lag Corr. S.E. Q p
1 +,584 ,1920 9,25 ,0024
2 +,539 ,1878 17,49 ,0002
3 +,354 ,1834 21,21 ,0001
4 +,497 ,1790 28,90 ,0000
5 +,145 ,1745 29,59 ,0000
6 +,149 ,1698 30,36 ,0000
7 +,028 ,1651 30,39 ,0001
8 +,178 ,1601 31,63 ,0001
9 -,061 ,1550 31,78 ,0002
10 -,036 ,1498 31,84 ,0004
11 -,135 ,1443 32,71 ,0006
12 -,033 ,1387 32,77 ,0011
13 -,236 ,1328 35,92 ,0006
14 -,200 ,1266 38,41 ,0005
15 -,264 ,1201 43,26 ,0001
0 0
-1,0 -0,5 0,0 0,5 1,0
Conf . Limit
20
n urma aplicrii modelului Buys Ballot, varianta multiplicativ, asupra seriei de date
investigate, estimarea concomitent a tendinei de lung durat i a factorilor sezonieri
decurge din relaia:
ln[ y j m (i 1) ] 0,0017 [ j m(i 1)] 2,6999 s j
LogROPA
0,10
0,08
0,06
Componenta aleatoare
0,04
0,02
0,00
-0,02
Devierile sezoniere n trimestrele II i III au fost pozitive (peste linia de trend). Dezvoltarea
economiei informale este semnalat i de practica entitilor productive de a suplimenta
numrul de angajri fr forme legale pentru desfurarea lucrrilor cu caracter agricol.
Devierile sezoniere n trimestrele I i IV au fost negative (sub linia de trend). Pe fondul
reducerii cererii de for de munc, ponderea omerilor calificai n agricultur n numrul
total al omerilor a fost, n medie, de 2,9 la sut. Pe sexe, acest indicator a nregistrat valori de
3,38 la sut pentru brbai i 2,14 la sut pentru femei.
Modelul este valid statistic, ntruct valoarea teoretic pentru un prag de semnificaie = 0,05
21
i 1, respectiv 22 grade de libertate, preluat din tabelul repartiiei Fischer, este inferioar
valorii calculate a testului F (F, k, n-k-1 = 4,30 < Fcalc= 73,93). Valoarea raportului de corelaie
este 0,88. Modelul explic 77,44 la sut din variaia ratei de ocupare a populaiei n vrst de
munc n agricultur, silvicultur i pescuit.
Pentru trimestrele I i II ale anului 2014, nivelurile previzionate ale ROPA, obinute prin
antilogaritmare, sunt 14,56 la sut i 16,12 la sut (estimri punctuale), n timp ce intervalele
de ncredere ale prognozei, estimate cu un prag de semnificaie = 0,05 devin [13,54;15,66],
respectiv [14,98;17,34].
Analiza spectral
n practic, exist moduri diferite de a realiza estimrile spectrale analitice ale fluctuaiilor
economice. Cercetrile au demonstrat c orice proces oscilatoriu este alctuit din cicluri de
intervale uniforme, de amplitudine i frecven diferit. Termenii unei serii Fourier sunt
funcii periodice cu ajutorul crora putem analiza fluctuaiile sistematice din economie. Se
numete seria Fourier a funciei periodice f(x):
0
f ( x) ( 1n cos nx 2 n sin nx), [1.23]
2 n 1
Coeficienii 0, 1n, 2n, n{1,2,3}se numesc coeficienii Euler - Fourier pentru funcia
f(x). Pentru ca o funcie periodic cu perioad 2 s poat fi reprezentat prin seria Fourier
asociat ei, aceasta trebuie s respecte condiiile teoremei lui Dirichlet (1837).
Pentru a calcula intensitatea fluctuaiilor sezoniere, se urmeaz modelul descris de Pecican
(2005:167). Astfel, se consider seria de timp staionar yt:
0 p
2 2
yt (1 f cos ft 2 f sin ft) t , t 1,2,..., T [1.24]
2 f 1 T T
22
unde: 0, 1f, 2f parametri, t numrul de uniti de timp ale seriei (cu t 1, T ), f-
frecvena fixat n mod aprioric.
Estimarea parametrilor funciei de ajustare se face prin similitudine cu metoda celor mai mici
2 2
f
1
ptrate, ceea ce impune respectarea condiiei: I = y n (t ) dt = minim. n aceast
2
(t )
0
2 T 2
2 f
T t 1
y t sin
T
ft [1.26]
y t
0 t 1
[1.27]
T
2 2
A f 1 f 2 f [1.28]
Pentru a evalua efectul sezonier, se calculeaz mediile pentru perioadele subanuale, astfel
nct seria va cuprinde K uniti de timp (j=1,2,,K). Devierile sezoniere rezult din relaia:
0 2 2
sj 1 f cos fj 2 f sin fj, [1.29]
2 K K
n care:
2 K 2 2 K 2
1 f
K j 1
y j cos
K
fj; 2 f
K j 1
y j sin
K
fj; y j media subperioadei j indiferent
de an.
n cele ce urmeaz, analiza spectral este utilizat, pentru a surprinde care este tendina de
variaie sezonier n cazul seriei de date trimestriale privind cheltuielile pentru alimente i
buturi consumate, medii lunare pe o gospodrie, n intervalul 2007 2013.
23
560 36
Cheltuielile pentru alimente i buturi consumate s-au situat, n termeni reali, n medie, n
perioada T1 2007 T4 2013, la 431,09 lei lunar pe o gospodrie. Amplitudinea relativ a
variaiei s-a cifrat la 55,1 la sut, raportul dintre valoarea maxim i cea minim fiind de 1,85
ori. Coeficientul de variaie (14,13 la sut) arat c seria este omogen, n timp ce coeficientul
de aplatizare (Kurtosis =2,87) indic o distribuie platicurtic. Din analiza histogramei se
poate constata c valorile mari ale seriei sunt mai bine reprezentate.
Indicatori descriptivi
Tabel 1.4
Serie de timp: CAB
Perioada: T1 2007 T4 2013
Numr de observaii: 28
Medie 431,0897
Median 437,2510
Maxim 517,7063
Minim 280,1695
Abatere standard 60,92502
Skewness -0,627140
Kurtosis 2,873824
Jarque-Bera 1,853998
Probabilitate 0,395740
*) deflatat cu IPC
24
12
10
No of obs 8
0
280,17 327,68 375,18 422,69 470,20 517,71
Teste de staionaritate
Tabel 1.5
n plus, din examinarea corelogramei rezult c seria de date investigat a fost afectat de
sezonalitate.
25
Autocorrelation Function
(Standard errors are white-noise estimates)
Lag Corr. S.E. Q p
1 +,728 ,1793 16,49 ,0000
2 +,643 ,1759 29,86 ,0000
3 +,473 ,1725 37,38 ,0000
4 +,465 ,1690 44,96 ,0000
5 +,238 ,1655 47,02 ,0000
6 +,186 ,1618 48,35 ,0000
7 +,078 ,1581 48,59 ,0000
8 +,129 ,1543 49,29 ,0000
9 -,019 ,1504 49,30 ,0000
10 +,009 ,1464 49,31 ,0000
11 -,036 ,1423 49,37 ,0000
12 +,037 ,1380 49,44 ,0000
13 -,069 ,1336 49,71 ,0000
14 -,045 ,1291 49,83 ,0000
15 -,116 ,1244 50,70 ,0000
0 0
-1,0 -0,5 0,0 0,5 1,0
Conf. Limit
Trimestre I II III IV
yt -18,755 52,528 -9,634 7,089
26
n continuare, am calculat amplitudinea Af :
1 f 2 f Af
11 -22,7195 21 -4,5605 A1= 23,1727
12 44,0030 22 0,0000 A2 = 44,0030
13 -22,7195 23 4,5605 A3 = 23,1727
A4 = 15,6140
14 15,6140 24 0,0000
15 -22,7195 25 -4,5605 A5 = 23,1727
16 44,0030 26 0,0000 A6 = 44,0030
17 -22,7195 27 4,5605 A7 = 23,1727
Devierile sezoniere, n trimestrele I i III au fost negative (sub linia de trend), pe fondul
scderii veniturilor disponibile i a nivelului nalt de ndatorare a populaiei, majorrii
consumului de produse agroalimentare din resurse proprii, diminurii volumului de
cumprturi de pe piaa rneasc, n paralel cu lrgirea reelei de super i hipermarketuri.
Devierile sezoniere, n trimestrele II i IV au fost pozitive (peste linia de trend), n condiiile
creterii cererii de produse agroalimentare i buturi alcoolice n perioada srbtorilor de
Pate i de iarn. Astfel, pe ansamblul gospodriilor, cheltuielile pentru alimente i buturi
consumate au reprezentat, n medie, 36,5 la sut din totalul cheltuielilor de consum.
Gospodriile de salariai au cheltuit pentru cumprarea produselor alimentare n medie 44,1 la
sut din totalul cheltuielilor de consum, iar cele de agricultori i de pensionari 24,2 la sut,
respectiv 30,3 la sut.
27
Modele ARIMA
Pentru extrapolarea seriei de date investigate este utilizat procedura Box Jenkins (1970).
Potrivit lui Pankratz (1983), procedura univariat Box-Jenkins (UBJ) implic parcurgerea
urmtoarelor etape pentru alegerea celui mai bun model ARIMA:
identificare;
estimare;
analiz-diagnostic.
n cadrul primei etape se selecteaz unul sau mai multe modele ARIMA. Se alege acel model
pentru care funciile de autocorelaie (FAC) i autocorelaie parial (FACP) se aseamn cu
FAC i FACP calculate pe baza eantionului de observaii. n cadrul celei de-a doua etape se
obin estimaiile parametrilor modelului ARIMA, n mod provizoriu ales la etapa de
identificare. n cadrul celei de-a treia etape se efectueaz teste pentru a stabili dac modelul
estimat este adecvat din punct de vedere statistic. Cele mai bune prognoze pentru serii
univariate se realizeaz cu ajutorul modelor ARIMA construite corect.
Figura 1.11 prezint corelograma seriei difereniate, din care s-a nlturat componenta
sezonier (CAB_SA).
Autocorrelation Function
(Standard errors are white-noise estimates)
Lag Corr. S.E. Q p
1 +,409 ,1822 5,05 ,0247
2 +,445 ,1787 11,25 ,0036
3 +,272 ,1751 13,65 ,0034
4 -,035 ,1714 13,70 ,0083
5 -,061 ,1676 13,83 ,0167
6 -,196 ,1638 15,27 ,0183
7 -,279 ,1598 18,31 ,0107
8 -,381 ,1558 24,28 ,0021
9 -,166 ,1516 25,48 ,0025
10 -,178 ,1473 26,94 ,0027
11 -,100 ,1429 27,43 ,0040
12 +,111 ,1384 28,08 ,0054
13 -,054 ,1337 28,25 ,0084
14 +,112 ,1289 29,00 ,0105
15 +,060 ,1238 29,24 ,0150
0 0
-1,0 -0,5 0,0 0,5 1,0
Conf. Limit
28
Partial Autocorrelation Function
(Standard errors assume AR order of k-1)
Lag Corr. S.E.
1 +,409 ,1925
2 +,333 ,1925
3 +,019 ,1925
4 -,353 ,1925
5 -,120 ,1925
6 -,031 ,1925
7 -,085 ,1925
8 -,274 ,1925
9 +,215 ,1925
10 +,142 ,1925
11 -,113 ,1925
12 +,030 ,1925
13 -,133 ,1925
14 +,015 ,1925
15 -,075 ,1925
0
-1,0 -0,5 0,0 0,5 1,0
Conf. Limit
29
Tabelul 1.6 arat c toi parametrii sunt semnificativi statistic. Eroarea standard este 6,458.
Erorile nu sunt heteroscedastice sau autocorelate i sunt distribuite normal.
ntruct rezultatele testelor diagnostic sunt favorabile, am putut realiza prognoza cheltuielilor
pentru alimente i buturi consumate, medii lunare pe o gospodrie, n termeni reali, pentru
trimestrele I i II ale anului 2014, pe baza modelului autoregresiv de forma ARMA (2,2).
Valorile previzionate sunt urmtoarele:
Trimestrul I II
Valoarea previzionat 523,944 530,366
Eroarea standard de previziune 6,170 6,295
Modelul Calot, pentru analiza concomitent a trendului i a sezonalitii, poate fi utilizat dac
seria de timp ndeplinete urmtoarele condiii: tendina este liniar; sezonalitatea este
staionar; perturbaia urmeaz o distribuie normal.
Pornind de la expresia:
yt= +t + t [1.30]
30
1 m
j [1.33]
m j 1
1 m
sj j j j
m j 1 [1.34]
ntruct variabila t este un agregat, care admite partiionarea timpului pe decade, luni,
trimestre, semestre i ani, poate fi notat cu j+im ( unde i= 0, n 1 ani) astfel nct:
Prin utilizarea metodei celor mai mici ptrate, se estimeaz parametrii j, n funcie de care
se vor determina valoarea termenului i coeficienii de sezonalitate sj. n acest sens, se
utilizeaz urmtoarele relaii:
n 1
1
i( y
n(n 2 1) i 0
i y) [1.36]
nm 1
y [1.37]
2
m 1
sj yj y(j ) [1.38]
2
unde:
y i - media anului i;
y j - media subperioadei j;
31
Veniturile din agricultur, medii lunare pe o gospodrie reprezint indicatorul statistic luat n
considerare pentru estimarea concomitent a tendinei de lung durat i a factorilor sezonieri,
cu ajutorul modelului Calot.
80
medii lunare pe o gospod rie, lei
70
60
50
40
30
20
T1 2007
T2 2007
T3 2007
T4 2007
T1 2008
T2 2008
T3 2008
T4 2008
T1 2009
T2 2009
T3 2009
T4 2009
T1 2010
T2 2010
T3 2010
T4 2010
T1 2011
T2 2011
T3 2011
T4 2011
T1 2012
T2 2012
T3 2012
T4 2012
T1 2013
T2 2013
T3 2013
T4 2013
Figura 1.12 Evoluia veniturilor din agricultur*
n perioada T1 2007- T4 2013
Sursa: Calcule proprii pe baza datelor din publicaia trimestrial Veniturile
i consumul populaiei(2007-2013), Institutul Naional de Statistic
32
Indicatori descriptivi
Tabel 1.7
Serie de timp: VA
Perioada: T1 2007 T4 2013
Numr de observaii: 28
Medie 49,01393
Median 51,37000
Maxim 70,39000
Minim 25,51000
Abatere standard 12,69817
Skewness -0,193226
Kurtosis 1,993830
6
No. of observations
0
20,63 27,50 34,38 41,25 48,13 55,00 61,88 68,75 75,63
Category (upper limits)
33
Autocorrelation Function
(Standard errors are white-noise estimates)
Lag Corr. S.E. Q p
1 +,733 ,1793 16,72 ,0000
2 +,645 ,1759 30,17 ,0000
3 +,483 ,1725 37,99 ,0000
4 +,476 ,1690 45,92 ,0000
5 +,242 ,1655 48,05 ,0000
6 +,187 ,1618 49,40 ,0000
7 +,077 ,1581 49,63 ,0000
8 +,130 ,1543 50,34 ,0000
9 -,021 ,1504 50,36 ,0000
10 +,003 ,1464 50,36 ,0000
11 -,035 ,1423 50,42 ,0000
12 +,038 ,1380 50,50 ,0000
13 -,072 ,1336 50,79 ,0000
14 -,057 ,1291 50,99 ,0000
15 -,122 ,1244 51,95 ,0000
0 0
-1,0 -0,5 0,0 0,5 1,0
Conf . Limit
n urma aplicrii modelului Calot asupra seriei de date investigate, agregatul componentelor
de lung durat i sezonier poate fi scris ca:
y j im 46,124 0,199 ( j im) s j
34
Devierile sezoniere obinute sunt urmtoarele:
VA
16
14
12
10
Componenta aleatoare
-2
-4
-6
-8 > 70
< 70
-10
< 60
-12 < 50
20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 < 40
< 30
T endin + componenta sezonier
Factorul sezonier a deviat veniturile din agricultur medii lunare ale unei gospodrii n
trimestrele I i IV cu 16,743 lei, respectiv cu 1,462 lei sub linia de trend, iar n trimestrele II i
III cu 8,112 lei, respectiv cu 10,093 lei peste tendina de lung durat. La aceast evoluie au
contribuit: diminuarea ofertei productorilor interni pe segmentul produselor animale, datorit
costurilor din ce n ce mai mari cu ntreinerea acestora; numrul sczut de spaii optime de
nmagazinare pentru cereale, legume i fructe; majorarea cererii pentru produse de calitate
inferioar, pe fondul crizei economice; concurena ridicat a importurilor pe segmentul
produselor agricole.
Analiza nivelului mediu al veniturilor din agricultur pe decile n anul 2013 evideniaz un
decalaj de 5,3:1 ntre veniturile medii pe o gospodrie din prima decil i veniturile medii pe o
35
gospodrie din ultima decil. Ponderea lor n veniturile totale a fost de 12,3 la sut n decila
inferioar i de 1,96 la sut n cea superioar.
Verificarea verosimilitii modelului a fost realizat prin utilizarea analizei dispersionale.
Valoarea teoretic pentru un prag de semnificaie = 0,05 i 1, respectiv 26 grade de libertate,
preluat din tabelul repartiiei Fischer (F,k,n-k-1 = 4,22) este inferioar valorii calculate a
testului F (Fcalc=116,82), ceea ce arat c modelul este valid statistic. Raportul de corelaie
este destul de aproape de 1: R= 0,87. Modelul explic 75,69 la sut din variaia veniturilor din
agricultur, medii lunare pe o gospodrie.
Pentru trimestrele I i II ale anului 2014, nivelurile previzionate ale VA sunt 35,15 lei i 60,21
lei (estimri punctuale), n timp ce intervalele de ncredere ale prognozei, estimate cu un prag
de semnificaie =0,05 devin [21,15; 49,17], respectiv [46,10; 74,32].
y t q t ( at qbt ) st m q q 1,2,... [1.40]
unde:
m = numrul perioadelor subanuale (luni, trimestre);
yt
at (1 )(at 1 bt 1 );
st m
bt (at at 1 ) (1 )bt 1 ;
yt
st (1 ) st m .
at
36
Estimaia componentei sezoniere reprezint media ponderat ntre coeficientul de sezonalitate
(yt/at), la momentul t, i valoarea aceluiai coeficient la t-m, folosind modelul. Estimaia
componentei trend, la momentul t, este o medie ponderat ntre (at at-1 ) i bt-1 - glisajul
termenului constant este mult mai important dect cel al pantei . n relaia pentru nivelul
seriei se folosete valoarea curent desezonalizat (yt/st-m).
Modelul Holt Winters impune estimri iniiale pentru nivelul seriei, trend i coeficienii de
sezonalitate. Cel mai adesea:
y1 y2 ... ym
am [1.41]
m
et
at at 1 bt 1 [1.44]
st m
et
bt bt 1 [1.45]
st m
et
st st m [1.46]
at 1 bt 1
Constantele de netezire , , [0,1] sunt alese de aa manier nct suma ptratelor erorilor de
previziune s fie minim, pe orizontul investigat.
n continuare, Modelul Holt Winters este folosit pentru a examina influena factorilor
sezonieri asupra evoluiei celor dou fluxuri de comer exterior cu produse agricole ale
Romniei cu rile n curs de dezvoltare, n perioada ianuarie 2007 - decembrie 2013.
37
250 6
Export Import Sold RON/EUR (sc.dr.)
200 5
150 4
milioane euro
100 3
50 2
0 1
-50 0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Serii de timp:EXPA/IMPA
Perioada: 2007L01 2013L12
Numr de observaii: 84
Medie 53,30451 28,35896
Median 39,79991 26,98917
Maxim 195,7322 60,20815
Minim 4,883999 14,22365
Abatere standard 42,67776 10,05949
Skewness 1,465409 1,030817
Kurtosis 4,828357 3,810269
Jarque-Bera 41,47604 17,17405
Probabilitate 0,000000 0,000187
38
Figura 1.17 Densitatea de repartiie pentru EXPA
39
Analiza elasticitii comerului exterior cu produse agricole al Romniei cu rile n curs de
dezvoltare n funcie de variaia cursului de schimb RON/EUR, precum i examinarea
efectelor acestuia asupra soldului contului curent, a fost realizat cu ajutorul coeficienilor de
z t z t 1 yt yt 1 z t 1 z t 1 yt yt 1
tip arc, descrii de urmtoarele relaii: : ; : ;
z t 1 yt 1 z t 1 yt 1
z t 2 z t 1 y t y t 1
: , unde: zt media pe 2 luni consecutive a exporturilor/importurilor de
z t 1 y t 1
produse agricole n/din rile n curs de dezvoltare n perioada t (pentru perioadele precedent,
urmtoare i viitoare au fost folosii indicii t-1, t+1, i, respectiv, t+2); yt media pe 2 luni
consecutive a cursului de schimb n perioada t.
Pentru cele 3 intervale de cretere mai abrupt a cursului de schimb RON/EUR, efectele au
fost favorabile pentru mbuntirea balanei comerciale. n contextul crizei financiare,
exporturile de produse agricole ctre rile n curs de dezvoltare au fost receptive la variaia
40
cursului de schimb, n principal dup lag-ul de o perioad. n schimb, importurile de produse
agricole din rile n curs de dezvoltare au fost mai puin sensibile la deprecierea monedei
naionale, coeficienii negativi de elasticitate avnd valori cuprinse ntre 41,74 i 0,02. De
altfel, cele mai importante rezultate s-au consemnat n intervalul median. Pe fondul
restrngerii cererii interne i a investiiilor, nsumarea coeficienilor de elasticitate a condus la
obinerea urmtoarelor valori: 112,28, respectiv de 208,49 pentru lag-ul de o perioad i de
113,33 pentru lag-ul de 2 perioade.
Coeficienii de autocorelaie i autocorelaie parial, calculai cu ajutorul pachetului de
programe Statistica modulul Time Series Arima, indic faptul c seriile de date investigate
au fost afectate de sezonalitate.
Autocorrelation Function
(Standard errors are white-noise estimates)
Lag Corr. S.E. Q p
1 +,806 ,1072 56,55 ,0000
2 +,620 ,1065 90,39 0,000
3 +,450 ,1059 108,4 0,000
4 +,392 ,1052 122,3 0,000
5 +,384 ,1046 135,7 0,000
6 +,367 ,1039 148,2 0,000
7 +,347 ,1032 159,5 0,000
8 +,308 ,1026 168,6 0,000
9 +,255 ,1019 174,8 0,000
10 +,248 ,1012 180,8 0,000
11 +,269 ,1005 188,0 0,000
12 +,301 ,0998 197,0 0,000
13 +,257 ,0991 203,8 0,000
14 +,199 ,0984 207,9 0,000
15 +,122 ,0977 209,4 0,000
16 +,124 ,0970 211,1 0,000
17 +,137 ,0963 213,1 0,000
18 +,136 ,0956 215,1 0,000
19 +,101 ,0949 216,3 0,000
20 +,073 ,0941 216,9 0,000
21 +,100 ,0934 218,0 0,000
22 +,196 ,0926 222,5 0,000
23 +,239 ,0919 229,3 0,000
24 +,256 ,0911 237,1 0,000
25 +,180 ,0904 241,1 0,000
0 0
-1,0 -0,5 0,0 0,5 1,0
Conf. Limit
41
Autocorrelation Function
(Standard errors are white-noise estimates)
Lag Corr. S.E. Q p
1 +,457 ,1072 18,18 ,0000
2 +,098 ,1065 19,02 ,0001
3 -,036 ,1059 19,14 ,0003
4 -,079 ,1052 19,70 ,0006
5 -,035 ,1046 19,81 ,0014
6 +,081 ,1039 20,41 ,0023
7 +,179 ,1032 23,42 ,0014
8 +,059 ,1026 23,76 ,0025
9 +,061 ,1019 24,12 ,0041
10 +,048 ,1012 24,34 ,0068
11 +,077 ,1005 24,93 ,0094
12 +,212 ,0998 29,43 ,0034
13 +,171 ,0991 32,39 ,0021
14 +,047 ,0984 32,61 ,0033
15 -,085 ,0977 33,37 ,0042
16 -,153 ,0970 35,85 ,0030
17 -,148 ,0963 38,20 ,0023
18 -,085 ,0956 39,00 ,0029
19 -,043 ,0949 39,20 ,0042
20 -,029 ,0941 39,30 ,0061
21 -,011 ,0934 39,31 ,0090
22 -,035 ,0926 39,46 ,0125
23 +,013 ,0919 39,48 ,0176
24 +,080 ,0911 40,25 ,0202
25 +,012 ,0904 40,27 ,0274
0 0
-1,0 -0,5 0,0 0,5 1,0
Conf. Limit
n urma aplicrii modelului Holt Winters, varianta multiplicativ, pentru seriile de date lunare
privind ambele fluxuri de comer exterior cu produse agricole ale Romniei cu rile n curs
de dezvoltare, n perioada 2007-2013, am obinut rezultatele din Tabelul 1.10.
42
Modelul Holt Winters, varianta multiplicativ
- caracteristicile modelelor estimate -
Tabel 1.10
60
40
Componenta aleatoare
20
-20
43
Modelul Holt Wint ers, variant a multiplicat iv
IOT A = 0,48 UPSILON = 0,00 ET A = 0,00
IMPA
25
20
15
Componenta aleatoare
10
-5
-10
> 60
-15 < 60
< 50
-20 < 40
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 < 30
< 20
T endin + component sezonier
44
determinat, n medie, n lunile martie i aprilie o cretere a volumului intrrilor de produse
agricole din rile n curs de dezvoltare cu 38,05 la sut, respectiv cu 7,54 la sut fa de linia
de trend, pe seama: condiiilor climaterice nefavorabile (2007, 2009, 2012), care au condus la
creterea importurilor de cereale, legume, plante, rdcini i tuberculi, fructe comestibile n
principal din Turcia, China, Egipt; rezultatelor modeste consemnate n subsectorul zootehnic;
pierderilor nregistrate pe piaa crnii de porc i de vit, efect al costurilor de producie
ridicate.
n luna mai, factorul sezonier a determinat o scdere a livrrilor de produse agricole pe pieele
rilor n curs de dezvoltare cu 18,45 la sut fa de linia de trend i o cretere pe segmentul
achiziiilor cu 28,58 la sut. Astfel, n cazul comerului exterior de produse agricole cu rile
n curs de dezvoltare, gradul de acoperire a importurilor prin exporturi s-a cifrat la 42,45 la
sut.
n intervalul iunie-august, factorul sezonier a determinat scderea activitii de comer
exterior cu produse agricole cu rile n curs de dezvoltare fa de linia de trend, pe fondul
concurenei ridicate pe acest segment de pia.
45
agricole din rile n curs de dezvoltare (F, k, n-k-1 = 3,96 < Fcalc=63,8). n ceea ce privete
determinarea modelelor, acestea explic 90,93 la sut i, respectiv, 83,37 la sut la sut din
evoluia celor dou fluxuri de comer exterior.
Pentru lunile ianuarie i februarie 2014, nivelurile previzionate sunt 140,41 milioane euro i
210,08 milioane euro (estimri punctuale), iar intervalele de ncredere ale prognozei, estimate
cu un prag de semnificaie =0,05 devin [103,99;176,82], respectiv [173,64;246,52] n cazul
exporturilor de produse agricole n rile n curs de dezvoltare, n timp ce nivelurile
previzionate sunt 20,80 milioane euro i 22,08 milioane euro (estimri punctuale), iar
intervalele de ncredere ale prognozei, estimate cu un prag de semnificaie =0,05 devin
[9,41;32,19], respectiv [10,68;33,48] n cazul importurilor de produse agricole din rile n
curs de dezvoltare.
46
Capitolul 2. Modele cu vectori autoregresivi structurali
Metodologia vector autoregresiv (VAR) a aprut odat cu studiile lui Sims (1980).
Ulterior, Watson, Hamilton (1994), Enders (1995), Waggoner, Zha (1999), Lutkepohl (2005)
au oferit studii actualizate ale metodologiei VAR.
Aceasta poate fi considerat o generalizare att a modelului univariat autoregresiv, pentru c
variabilele dependente sunt laguri ale variabilelor explicative dar i a ecuaiilor simultane,
pentru c se estimeaz simultan un sistem de ecuaii. n plus, n fiecare ecuaie se includ i
laguri ale celorlalte variabile endogene. n general, n model nu sunt incluse variabile
exogene, aa cum se procedeaz n modelare (Puna, 2007:1).
Principalul scop al analizei de tip VAR este de a evalua efectele diverselor ocuri asupra
variabilelor din sistem. Fiecare variabil este afectat de inovaiile proprii, precum i de
inovaii n celelalte variabile (Boel, 2002:17).
n continuare, metodologia VAR este utilizat pentru a evalua efectele exercitate de factorii
determinani asupra cererii de produse alimentare din Romnia.
n Romania, ncepnd cu anul 2010, dinamica anual a cifrei de afaceri din industria
alimentar i a buturilor a fost superioar celei nregistrate n alte ri membre ale Uniunii
Europene.
47
n anul 2013, cheltuielile pentru alimente i buturi consumate au deinut, n medie pe o
persoan, o pondere de 22,53 la sut n totalul cheltuielilor, n cretere cu 0,33 puncte
procentuale fa de anul 2007.
100%
Cheltuieli pentru alimente i buturi
90% consumate
80% Cheltuieli pentru cumprarea mrfurilor
70% nealimentare
Cheltuieli pentru plata serviciilor
60%
50% Cheltuieli pentru investiii
40% Cheltuieli de producie
30%
Impozite, contribuii, cotizaii, taxe
20%
10% Contravaloarea consumului din resurse
proprii
0% Alte cheltuieli
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
4500 350
4000 300
3500 250
3000 200
2500 150
2000 100
Estonia Ungaria Republica Bulgaria Letonia Romania Slovacia Polonia Slovenia Lituania
Ceh
alimente bauturi nealcoolice (sc.dr.)
48
n ceea ce privete evoluia consumului mediu lunar pe o persoan, la principalele produse
alimentare i buturi, se constat o ameliorare a structurii calitative a cererii, atribuit creterii
ponderii produselor alimentare de origine animal. Cu toate acestea, potrivit lui Toderoiu
(2013:156), gradul n care se asigur securitatea alimentar a populaiei nu este satisfctor.
n anul 2010, cheltuielile pentru cumprarea produselor alimentare precum pine, cereale,
carne i preparate din carne, lapte, brnzeturi i ou au absorbit, pe o persoan, n medie,
67,57 la sut din cheltuielile pentru cumprarea de produse alimentare i buturi nealcoolice,
nivel situat cu 1,55 puncte procentuale peste media rilor din Europa Central (Republica
Ceh, Slovacia, Slovenia, Ungaria, Polonia).
1400
1200
1000
800
PPS
600
400
200
0
Bulgaria Republica Estonia Letonia Lituania Ungaria Polonia Romania Slovenia Slovacia
Ceh
pine i cereale carne i preparate din carne lapte, brnzeturi i ou fructe i legume
49
n anul 2013, se constat urmtoarele aspecte referitoare la configuraia consumului alimentar
mediu zilnic, pe locuitor, exprimat n calorii i factori nutritivi: (i) disponibilitile energetice
s-au situat la 3302,0 kcal, n scdere cu 2,7 la sut fa de anul 2007. Ponderea majoritar a
fost deinut de alimentele de origine vegetal (74,6 la sut) i a provenit, n principal, de la
cereale i produse din cereale (56,4 la sut), grsimi vegetale (13,8 la sut) i cartofi (8,3 la
sut); (ii) consumul de proteine a fost de 108,4 grame, mai mic cu 6,3 grame comparativ cu
anul 2007; (iii) preponderena lipidelor de origine animal evideniaz caracterul deficitar al
consumului alimentar.
Influena cea mai mare asupra cererii de produse alimentare este exercitat de variabila care
exprim veniturile populaiei.
PPS
25000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Bulgaria Romania Ungaria Letonia Polonia Estonia Lituania Slovacia Republica Slovenia
Ceh
Figura 2.4 Evoluia PIB pe locuitor n unele ri din Uniunea European
Sursa: EUROSTAT
50
n Romania, n intervalul 2007-2013, veniturile modeste ale populaiei nu au permis
satisfacerea deplin a necesarului de consum fiziologic normal alimentar.
Yt = A1Yt-1+A2Yt-2++ApYt-p + et [2.1]
n care:
Yt este vectorul variabilelor endogene de dimensiune (nx1);
Ai este o matrice de coeficieni de dimensiune (nxn), pentru i 1, p ;
et este vectorul erorilor de dimensiune (nx1) cu M(et) =0 i matricea de varian-covarian
M(etetT)=e.
Procesul VAR(p) este staionar dac polinomul definit pornind de la det (In-A1Z --ApZp) 0,
pentru z1 are rdcinile n exteriorul cercului unitate din planul complex
(Hamilton,1994:259).
Ecuaia [2.1] poate fi scris prin utilizarea operatorului lag Ljyt =yt-j n form redus, astfel:
De la forma ecuaiei [2.1] VAR nerestricionat putem obine o ecuaie de tip VAR
restricionat (Pfaff, 2008:4):
51
Ecuaia [2.5] poate fi rescris, astfel:
n care: vt =A-1But face conexiunea ntre cele dou forme. Matricea de varian-covarian
T
este: v=A-1BBTA-1 .
Pentru determinarea inovaiilor structurale, trebuie fixate minimum k(k-1)/2 restricii zero
coeficienilor matricei A din ecuaia [2.5] Matricea A relev legturile de interdependen,
existente ntre variabilele incluse n model. n acest sens, poate fi utilizat metoda Sims-
Bernanke (1986) pentru inovaii pe termen scurt, care admite repartizarea n mod liber a
restriciilor zero n interiorul matricei A.
Rezultatele modelului VAR sunt urmtoarele:
Funcia de rspuns la oc (IRF) examineaz efectul unei inovaii de mrime o deviaie
standard a rezidualelor unei variabile asupra evoluiei viitoare asociate fiecrei variabile
yt h
din model. IRF se exprim prin relaia h , n care ij, elementul matricei h,
u t
evideniaz impactul pe care l are asupra variabilei yt+h majorarea cu o unitate a variabilei
uj,t la momentul t de timp, n cazul n care celelalte variabile din sistem exercit o aciune
constant.
Descompunerea varianei erorii de prognoz (VD) determin, n procente, greutile
specifice din variaia unei variabile care sunt rezultatul ocurilor proprii i ocurilor
provenind de la celelalte variabile din sistem.
Testul de cauzalitate Granger (1969) arat dac exist o legtur de tip statistic ntre
seriile de date ale variabilelor Y i Z. Se poate afirma c Y cauzeaz Granger pe Z, dac o
prognoz lui Z realizat pe baza valorilor trecute ale lui Z i Y este mai bun dect o
prognoz fcut doar pe baza valorilor lui Z din perioada anterioar. Testul Granger are la
baz urmtoarele ecuaii de regresie:
p p
Z t 1 a1 j Z t i b1 j Yt j u1t [2.7]
i 1 j 1
p p
Yt 2 a 2 j Z t i b2 j Yt j u 2t [2.8]
i 1 j 1
52
care asum c erorile, u1t i u2t, sunt necorelate. Testarea ipotezei nule Y nu cauzeaz
p
Granger pe Z, adic H0: b
j 1
1j 0 , se realizeaz cu ajutorul testului F.
Pentru a scoate n eviden reacia cererii pentru produse alimentare la diverse inovaii din
economie, am estimat dou modele VAR, folosind date trimestriale din perioada 2007-2013.
MODEL I
Seriile de date au fost deflatate cu IPC, fiind exprimate n preurile medii ale anului 2005 i
desezonalizate, cu ajutorul metodei TRAMO/SEATS.
Testele Augmented Dickey-Fuller i Philipps Perron evideniaz faptul c cele trei variabile
sunt staionare.
Teste de staionaritate
Tabel 2.4
53
Alegerea numrului de ntrzieri pentru estimarea modelului VAR s-a realizat cu ajutorul
criteriilor Akaike (1974, 1976), Hannan-Quinn (1979) i Schwarz (1978). Criteriile Akaike i
Hannan-Quinn au indicat 4 lag-uri. ntruct VAR-ul este stabil (Anexa I), iar testele asupra
erorilor evideniaz faptul c acestea sunt distribuite normal, nu sunt heteroscedastice i
autocorelate (Anexa II), am optat pentru criteriul Schwarz, care a selectat ca ntrziere optim
o perioad.
Structura matricei A
Tabel 2.6
CABC VB TE
CABC 1 1 1
VB 0 1 0
TE 0 1 1
Restriciile impuse arat c, n decursul unui trimestru, cheltuielile pentru alimente i buturi
consumate sunt influenate de veniturile bneti i de transferurile din exterior sub forma
remiterilor din munca n strintate i a transferurilor curente private de la nerezideni, n timp
ce acestea din urm rspund la evoluia veniturilor bneti. n plus, fiecare variabil este
influenat de ea nsi.
54
(vezi Brown, Durbin & Evans, 1975) (Anexa III). La un nivel semnificativ statistic de 5 la
sut, ipoteza stabilitii parametrilor este acceptat.
Estimri i rezultate
Funciile de rspuns ale cheltuielilor pentru alimente i buturi consumate la inovaii sunt
prezentate n Figura 2.5.
55
Figura 2.6 Descompunerea varianei aferente cheltuielilor
pentru alimente i buturi consumate
Att veniturile bneti, ct i transferurile din exterior sub forma remiterilor din munca n
strintate i a transferurilor curente private de la nerezideni cauzeaz Granger cheltuielile
pentru alimente i buturi consumate, influena lor fiind de natur predictibil.
56
MODEL II
IPA Importurile de produse agricole din rile n curs de dezvoltare, milioane lei.
Sursa: EUROSTAT
ABS Absorbia intern, milioane lei. Sursa: EUROSTAT
CV Cursul de schimb al pieei valutare (lei/euro). Sursa: BNR
Seriile sunt exprimate n preurile medii ale anului 2005. Valorile importurilor de produse
agricole din rile n curs de dezvoltare au fost deflatate cu indicii valorii unitare n comerul
internaional, cele ale componentelor absorbiei interne (consumul final, formarea brut de
capital fix i variaia stocurilor) cu indicii de preuri corespunztori, iar cele ale cursului de
schimb cu IPC. De asemenea, seriile au fost desezonalitate, cu ajutorul metodei
TRAMO/SEATS.
Att testul Augmented Dickey-Fuller, ct i testul Phillips-Perron arat c variabilele sunt
integrate de ordin I.
Teste de staionaritate
Tabel 2.8
57
Nestaionaritatea variabilelor a impus folosirea procedurii Johansen multivariat, care a
semnalat prezena unui singur vector de cointegrare la un nivel statistic semnificativ de 5 la
sut.
Tabelul 2.10 prezint structura relaiilor de interdependen dintre IPA, ABS i CV.
Structura matricei A
Tabel 2.10
IPA ABS CV
IPA 1 1 1
ABS 0 1 0
CV 0 1 1
Restriciile fixate ilustreaz faptul c, n decursul unui trimestru, importurile de produse
agricole din rile n curs de dezvoltare sunt influenate de absorbia intern i de cursul de
schimb. La rndul ei, absorbia intern influeneaz cursul de schimb. n plus, fiecare variabil
este influenat de ea nsi.
Testele CUSUM i CUSUMQ evideniaz, pentru un nivel statistic semnificativ de 5 la sut,
stabilitatea parametrilor modelului (Anexa III).
Estimri i rezultate
58
Figura 2.7 Rspunsul importurilor de produse agricole din rile
n curs de dezvoltare la o deviaie standard a unei inovaii structurale 2 E.S.
59
Descompunerea varianei arat c, dup 3 trimestre, 89,3 la sut din modificarea importurilor
de produse agricole din rile n curs de dezvoltare este explicat de inovaiile proprii. La un
orizont de 12 trimestre, ocurile absorbiei interne i cele din partea cursului de schimb sunt
mult mai mari, acestea explicnd 20,68 la sut i, respectiv, 15,12 la sut din modificarea IPA.
Rezultatele testului de cauzalitate Granger sunt prezentate n Tabelul 2.12.
Absorbia intern cauzeaz Granger importurile de produse agricole din rile n curs de
dezvoltare (valoarea p a testului: 0,00885). Astfel, influena ABS asupra IPA este de natur
sistematic, anticipativ. Ipoteza nul, potrivit creia cursul de schimb nu cauzeaz Granger
evoluia importurilor de produse agricole din rile n curs de dezvoltare, nu este acceptat la
10 la sut. Avnd n vedere ns eventualitatea apariiei unei erori de tip I, se poate afirma c
CV cauzeaz Granger IPA, mai precis valorile viitoare ale IPA sunt explicate de valorile
trecute ale CV.
60
Capitolul 3. Modele cu vectori de cointegrare i vectori de corecie a erorilor
61
1,2
1,0
0,8
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
-0,2
-0,4
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Export Import Sold
Figura 3.1 Comerul exterior cu produse agricole al Romniei
cu rile n curs de dezvoltare (% n PIB)
Sursa: Calcule proprii pe baza datelor EUROSTAT
n anul 2013, efortul la export aferent produselor agricole n rile n curs de dezvoltare s-a
situat la 8,788 la sut, comparativ cu 3,581 la sut n anul 2010. Rata de penetrare a
importurilor de produse agricole din rile n curs de dezvoltare s-a cifrat la 1,722 la sut,
fiind sensibil mai mic fa de nivelul nregistrat de alte ri membre UE din regiune.
BG SK CZ HU RO
2010 0,699 0,033 0,070 0,393 0,403
Ponderea exportului 2011 0,888 0,041 0,091 0,507 0,532
n PIB (%) 2012 0,749 0,075 0,116 0,559 0,604
2013 1,497 0,056 0,117 0,527 1,030
2010 0,434 0,051 0,099 0,111 0,211
Ponderea importului 2011 0,374 0,059 0,112 0,113 0,207
n PIB(%) 2012 0,351 0,057 0,112 0,124 0,194
2013 0,403 0,065 0,115 0,149 0,187
2010 0,265 -0,018 -0,029 0,282 0,192
Ponderea soldului balanei 2011 0,514 -0,018 -0,021 0,394 0,325
comerciale n PIB (%) 2012 0,398 0,018 0,003 0,435 0,410
2013 1,094 -0,009 0,002 0,378 0,843
2010 7,228 1,226 2,646 6,306 3,581
2011 8,464 1,301 2,986 6,619 4,160
Efortul la export (%)
2012 7,187 2,362 3,710 7,404 6,059
2013 16,367 1,912 3,644 6,934 8,788
2010 4,617 1,909 3,687 1,860 1,906
Rata de penetrare 2011 3,754 1,874 3,653 1,553 1,664
a importului (%) 2012 3,499 1,787 3,608 1,735 2,029
2013 5,009 2,204 3,583 2,056 1,722
Sursa: Calcule proprii pe baza datelor EUROSTAT
62
n cazul comerului exterior al Romniei cu rile n curs de dezvoltare, variaia anual a
structurii valorice aferente att exporturilor, ct i importurilor de produse agricole a fost
susinut, n intervalul 2008-2013, n proporie de peste 62 la sut, de dou i respectiv patru
seciuni din Nomenclatorul Combinat (n cazul exporturilor cereale i animale vii, iar n cel
al importurilor fructe comestibile; cafea, ceai, mate i condimente; legume, plante, rdcini
i tuberculi; semine i fructe oleaginoase; plante industriale sau medicinale; paie i furaje).
90%
Semine i fructe oleaginoase;
80% plante industriale sau medicinale;
paie i furaje
70%
Cereale
60%
40%
Fructe comestibile
30%
20%
Legume, plante, rdcini i
10% tuberculi
n anul 2013, 48,92 la sut din exporturile de produse agricole ctre rile n curs de
dezvoltare au avut ca destinaie Africa. n schimb, pe partea importurilor, 25,63 la sut din
achiziiile de produse agricole din rile n curs de dezvoltare au provenit din Asia, iar 22,36
la sut din America Central i de Sud.
63
ri din
America
Central i ri din
de Sud Asia
0,02% 31,59%
Alte ri
4,57%
Ucraina
5,11%
Turcia
9,79%
ri din
Africa
48,92%
ri din
America
Central i de
Sud
22,36%
ri din Asia
25,63%
Alte ri
30,68 %
ri din
Ucraina Africa
6,32%
Moldova 6,51%
8,50%
Romania ofer asisten tehnic rilor n curs de dezvoltare pentru includerea comerului n
politicile lor economice, n programe i strategii de relansare i dezvoltare durabil. Cu toate
acestea, n perioada 2007-2013, n medie, numai 3,67 la sut din volumul total al importurilor
de produse agricole din rile n curs de dezvoltare au provenit din Africa, zona Caraibelor i
Pacific.
64
3.3 Estimarea unui model VEC
n care:
Zt este un vector de variabile integrate de ordin unu de dimensiune (nx1);
A1, A2,,Ap sunt matricele coeficienilor VAR de dimensiune (nxn);
et este un vector de dimensiune (nx1) al erorilor cu M(et) =0 i matricea varian - covarian
M(etet)=e.
Ecuaia [3.1] poate fi redat ntr-o form de corecie a erorilor, i anume:
p 1
Z t Z t 1 i Z t i et[3.2]
i 1
unde:
p p
Ai I i i A
. j
i 1 j i 1
p 1
Z t ' Z t 1 i Z t i et [3.3]
i 1
65
p 1
sau: Z t t 1 i Z t i et [3.4]
i 1
unde: este matricea vectorilor de cointegrare, este matricea coeficienilor de ajustare, care
reflect viteza cu care Zt converge ctre relaia de echilibru pe termen lung. Vectorii de
cointegrare constituie combinaii liniare ale variabilelor integrate de ordin unu din Zt care sunt
staionare, astfel nct Zt-1=t-1 este I(0).
Estimatorii de maxim verosimilitate ai lui sunt determinai ca i vectori proprii afereni
celor mai ridicate r valori proprii. Valorile proprii ale matricei (1 1 ... n 0) ,
egale cu ptratul corelaiei canonice ntre Zt i Zt-1, condiionate de Zt-1 ,, Zt-n, sunt
estimate pentru a determina numrul vectorilor de cointegrare. Astfel, valorile estimate nenule
indic rangul r al matricei .
Pentru a identifica numrul vectorilor de cointegrare, sunt folosite dou teste de tip LR
(Likelihood Ratio), i anume:
1. Testul urm testeaz ipoteza nul a existenei a r vectori de cointegrare, dat fiind
alternativa a n vectori de cointegrare (situaie n care seriile sunt staionare), pentru
r=0,1,,n-1:
n
LR trace T ln(1 )
i r 1
i [3.5]
LRmax T ln(1 r 1 ) [3.6]
Cele dou teste statistice nu urmeaz o distribuie hi ptrat n general. Printre autorii care au
calculat valorile critice se numr Johansen, Juselius (1990), Osterwald-Lenum (1992),
MacKinnon, Haug, Michelis (1999).
66
Dac se respect condiia de cointegrare, se pot efectua:
teste sugerate de teoria economic de excludere a unor variabile, care iau forma [i] = [0] -
pentru variabila i. Testul statistic este descris de urmtoarea relaie:
~
r
1 i
LR T ln(
) [3.7]
i 1
1 i
unde:
~
i i i sunt valorile proprii n condiiile estimrii matricei vectorilor de cointegrare cu
restricii, respectiv fr restricii. Testul statistic urmeaz o distribuie hi ptrat avnd un
numr de grade de libertate egal cu numrul de restricii.
teste de exogenitate slab, ceea ce implic testarea restriciei [j]=[0] - pentru variabila j,
ntr-o manier asemntoare celei utilizate la testul de excludere. Dac ipoteza testat este
acceptat, atunci variabila j are caracter slab exogen. Potrivit lui Radu (2010:19),
exogenitatea slab a unei variabile implic faptul c nu are loc o pierdere de informaie
relevant pentru parametrii de interes ai modelului atunci cnd estimarea acestora se
realizeaz condiionat de variabila n cauz, nefiind specificat un proces care o genereaz
pe aceasta din urm.
De asemenea, se poate studia cauzalitatea Granger.
IPA Importurile de produse agricole din rile n curs de dezvoltare, milioane lei,
preuri medii ale anului 2005. Sursa: EUROSTAT
CI Cererea intern, milioane lei, preuri medii ale anului 2005. Sursa: EUROSTAT
CV Cursul de schimb al pieei valutare (lei/euro), preuri medii ale anului 2005.
Sursa: BNR
67
Toate variabilele au fost desezonalizate, utiliznd o procedur de tip medie mobil i
exprimate n logaritmi naturali.
Att testul Augmented Dickey-Fuller, ct i testul Phillips-Perron au indicat c cele trei
variabile sunt integrate de ordinul unu.
Teste de staionaritate
Tabel 3.2
Numrul optim de ntrzieri utilizate pentru identificarea unei posibile relaii de echilibru pe
termen lung ntre variabilele considerate a fost determinat prin estimarea unui model VAR.
Deoarece criteriile Akaike, Schwarz i Hannan-Quinn au selectat 3 lag-uri, a fost estimat un
VEC cu 2 lag-uri de diferene (vezi Harris, 1995). ntruct cele trei variabile sunt integrate de
ordin unu, a fost necesar folosirea procedurii Johansen multivariat care, prin cele dou
criterii utilizate, trace i max, a relevat prezena unui vector de cointegrare la un nivel statistic
semnificativ de 5 la sut.
Testele asupra erorilor au evideniat faptul c acestea sunt distribuite normal, conform testului
multivariat Jarque Bera (probabilitatea aferent fiind 0,1652), au variaie constant
(probabilitate de 0,3465) i nu sunt autocorelate (probabiliti de 0,1342 i 0,1411 aferente
testelor LM cu 1 i, respectiv, 2 lag-uri).
68
Relaia de cointegrare (n paranteze t-statistic [ ] ):
Toi coeficienii vectorului de cointegrare sunt semnificativi din punct de vedere statistic i au
semnele anticipate. Ipotezele, conform crora efectele pe termen lung ale cererii interne
(2=23,26) i ale cursului de schimb ( 2=8,45) sunt nule, nu sunt acceptate cu o probabilitate
de peste 99,6 la sut. Coeficientul asociat cererii interne din relaia pe termen lung este
supraunitar, n condiiile n care raportul dintre investiii i consumul final s-a cifrat la 35,61
la sut. Deprecierea monedei naionale duce la scderea importurilor de produse agricole din
rile n curs de dezvoltare. Riscul valutar pentru companiile net importatoare este relativ
ridicat, ntruct acestea nu pot transmite integral impactul majorrii cursului de schimb asupra
mrfurilor pe care le desfac pe piaa intern. Pentru acest tip de companii, ponderea creditelor
acordate n PIB s-a majorat treptat de la 24,97 la sut n T2 2008 la 35,08 la sut n T2 2014,
n paralel cu creterea ratei creditelor neperformante de la 0,07 la sut la aproximativ 3,8 la
sut. La sfritul anului 2013, efectul de prghie s-a situat la 1,2, comparativ cu 1,09 pentru
companiile net exportatoare i cu 2,39 pentru ansamblul sectorului companiilor nefinanciare.
Viteza de ajustare la echilibrul pe termen lung este de -0,485 (cu t-statistic -2,262), ceea ce
indic faptul c abaterea importurilor de produse agricole din rile n curs de dezvoltare de la
nivelul de echilibru se acomodeaz n aproximativ 3 trimestre.
Rezultatele testelor de exogenitate slab arat c att cererea intern, ct i cursul de schimb
sunt slab exogene. Caracterul slab exogen al cererii interne evideniaz faptul c CI este
definit n exteriorul sistemului (nu CI este determinat de IPA, ci IPA sunt determinate de
CI). Caracterul slab exogen al cursului de schimb ilustreaz faptul c CV nu se ajusteaz dac
anumite ocuri determin abaterea importurilor de produse agricole din rile n curs de
dezvoltare de la echilibrul pe termen lung (relaie de cauzalitate unidirecional ntre CV i
IPA).
69
Teste de exogenitate slab
Tabel 3.4
n continuare, am investigat posibila legtur ntre dinamicele pe termen scurt ale importurilor
de produse agricole din rile n curs de dezvoltare i ale factorilor determinani. Am estimat
un model cu vector de corecie a erorilor pe termen scurt restricionat, care are urmtoarea
expresie:
2 2 2
IPAt a0 i IPAt i i CI t i i CVt i ECt i et
i 1 i 1 i 1
70
Viteza de ajustare la echilibru este de -0,369 (cu t-statistic -5,041), ceea ce arat c
importurile de produse agricole din rile n curs de dezvoltare se ajusteaz n trimestrul
curent n cazul unei abateri de la nivelul de echilibru din trimestrul anterior.
Importurile de produse agricole din rile n curs de dezvoltare sunt influenate pe termen
scurt de variaia cererii interne, companiile de comer exterior ncercnd s se adapteze la
cererea care este viabil. n schimb, cursul de schimb nu afecteaz variaia importurilor de
produse agricole din rile n curs de dezvoltare pe termen scurt.
Modelul estimat a trecut setul testelor diagnostic. Reziduurile nu sunt autocorelate, sunt
distribuite normal i sunt homoscedastice. n plus, conform testelor CUSUM i CUSUMQ,
parametrii ecuaiei modelului sunt stabili, la un nivel semnificativ statistic de 5 la sut.
71
Cauzalitate - Granger
Tabel 3.6
IPA CI CV
IPA 0,00120 0,00420
CI 0,00034 0,06080
CV 0,38630 0,61879
Note: 1. Ipoteza de baz testat este: variabila de pe rnd nu este cauzat
Granger de variabilele de pe coloane. 2. Cifrele reprezint probabilitatea
(p-value). 3. Cifrele marcate cu bold indic respingerea ipotezei de baz
la un nivel semnificativ de 5 la sut.
Dup cum poate fi observat, importurile de produse agricole din rile n curs de dezvoltare
sunt cauzate Granger att de cererea intern (valoarea p a testului: 0,0012), ct i de cursul de
schimb (valoarea p a testului: 0,0042). Aadar, valorile viitoare ale importurilor de produse
agricole din rile n curs de dezvoltare sunt explicate de valorile trecute ale cererii interne i
ale cursului de schimb.
72
Summary
The paper Econometric Models Applied in the Real Economy is the result of the post-
doctoral research Performance and excellence in doctoral and postdoctoral research in the
field of economic sciences in Romania POSDRU 159/1.5/S/142115, thematic area SOCIO-
ECONOMIC AND SCIENTIFIC INDICATORS IN ECONOMIC POLICIES AT THE MICRO AND MACRO-
ECONOMIC LEVEL.
The paper was developed in a logical sequence of conducting complex econometric studies,
focusing on the quantitative analysis tools that the research of the real economy requires.
In the first chapter entitled Methods for the identification, assessment and forecast of the
systematic oscillations in the real economy I used various statistical and econometric
methods and techniques, a series of conclusions can be drawn from them regarding the
evolution of the following variables that constitute important links in the causal chain of the
economic approach:
The gross value added of the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector, in the
period 2007-2013, in real terms, had a quarterly average of lei 7153.55 million. The
absolute amplitude of variation, calculated as difference between the extreme values
of the series, was lei 17271.1 million. The maximum level was reached in the third
quarter of 2013, due to the outstanding crop production (mainly maize, wheat and
potatoes). In the opposite direction was the low yield obtained in the first quarter of
2009, due to the unfavourable weather conditions, the modest results in the livestock
subsector and the reduced investments in advanced technologies. The autocorrelation
and partial autocorrelation coefficients indicated that the investigated data series was
affected by seasonality, for whose analysis I used the Lawrence Klein model. The
obtained results reflect that, on average, the gross value added of the agriculture,
forestry and fishing sector: (i) was reduced by lei 6188.646 million, in the first quarter
compared to the fourth quarter, due to the poor results on the livestock sector, heavily
dependent on crop production and climatic factors; (ii) was lower by lei 4328.273
million, in the second quarter versus the fourth quarter, mainly due to the widened
gap between the production dynamics and that of the intermediate consumption of the
73
branch; (iii) was higher by lei 5270.199 million, in the third quarter compared to the
fourth quarter, mainly due to the positive results of the vegetal sector.
The average quarterly of the employment rate for working age population (15-64
years) in agriculture, forestry and fishing was 15.23 percent, in the period 2008-2013,
while the absolute amplitude of variation totalled 3.6 percentage points. The value of the
coefficient of variation reached 6.67 percent. The autocorrelation and partial
autocorrelation coefficients showed that the series was affected by seasonality, for
whose analysis I used the Buys Ballot model. The results illustrate that the peaks of
activity were recorded in the second and third quarters.
The expenses of consumed food and beverages stood, in real terms, on average,
during 2007Q1-2013Q4, at lei 431.09 per month per household. The total expenses of
the population were in 2013, on average, in real terms, of lei 2228.7 per month per
household, up by 51.5 percent compared to 2007 and represented 90.6 percent of the
total income. The consumption expenses had a share that accounted for 62.2 percent of
the total expenses, compared to 61.3 percent in 2007, of which 22.5 percent meant
expenses of consumed food and beverages, 21.4 percent to expenses for the purchase of
non-food products and 18.3 percent to expenses for the payment of services. In contrast,
the expenses for unconsumed food and beverages (in stock, given for manufacturing,
given to animals etc.) had a share that accounted for 2.1percent of the total expenses,
down by 0.1 percentage points compared to 2007. The relative amplitude of the
variation, calculated for the the data series on the monthly average of expenses per
household for consumed food and beverages, in real terms (2007Q1 - 2013Q4 quarterly
evolution) stood at 55.1 percent, the ratio between the maximum and minimum value
being 1.85 times. The variation coefficient (14.13 percent) indicates that the series is
homogeneous. In order to measure the intensity of oscillations due to seasonality I used
the Spectral Analysis. The results show that the seasonal factor deflected the monthly
average of expenses per household for consumed food and beverages in the first and
third quarters by lei 112.52 and lei 76.03 below the trend line, amid the decrease in the
available income and high levels of household indebtedness, the increase in the
consumption of agricultural products from own resources, the reduction of the volume of
purchases on the peasant market in parallel with the widening of the super and
hypermarket and specialty store network. The seasonal factor deflected the monthly
74
average of expenses per household for consumed food and beverages in the second and
fourth quarters by lei 172.61, respectively lei 15.94 over the trend line, in terms of an
increased demand for food products and alcoholic beverages during the Easter and
winter holidays. Thus, on all households, the expenses for consumed food and
beverages were on average 36.5 percent of the total consumption expenses. The
employee households spent, on average, 44.1 percent of the total consumption expenses
on buying food, and the farmers and retired 24.2 percent and respectively 30.3 percent.
The agricultural income, in real terms, was of lei 49.01 monthly average per
household, in the period 2007Q1-2013Q4, providing 2.93 percent of the total income, of
which the income from sales of agro-food products, animals and poultry accounted for
2.11 percent, and the income from the agricultural works for 0.82 percent. The absolute
amplitude of the variation amounted to lei 44.88, the minimum value representing 36.24
percent of the maximum value. The coefficient of variation (25.91 percent) reveals that
the calculated mean is representative for the examined series. In addition, the
autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation coefficients indicate the existence of
seasonal fluctuations in the series, for whose analysis I used the Calot model. The
seasonal factor deflected the monthly averages of agricultural income per household in
the first and fourth quarters by lei 16.743 and lei 1.462 below the trend line, and in the
second and third quarters by lei 8.112, respectively lei 10.093 over the trend line. The
following contributed to this evolution: the decrease in the domestic supply in the animal
product segment due to their high maintenance costs; the lack of adequate storage space
for cereals, vegetables and fruits; the increasing trend in the demand for inferior
products in times of economic crisis; the high competition of imports in the segment of
agricultural products.
The exports of agricultural products in developing countries registered a monthly
average of EUR 53.3 million, in the period 2007-2013. The absolute amplitude of
variation, calculated as difference between the extreme values of the series, was EUR
190.85 million. Instead, the imports of agricultural products from developing countries
registered a monthly average of EUR 28.36 million, the ratio between the maximum and
minimum value being 4.23 times. In 2013, the trade balance for Romanias agricultural
products with developing countries recorded a surplus of EUR 1178.28 million, 4.8
times higher than the average of the 2008-2012 period. The effort to the exports of
agricultural products to developing countries amounted to 8.79 percent compared with
75
6.06 percent in the previous year. In addition, the penetration rate of agricultural
products imports from developing countries was 1.72 percent below the level recorded
in neighbouring countries like Bulgaria (5.01 percent) and Hungary (2.06 percent). The
elasticity analysis of the foreign trade in agricultural products with developing countries
in relation to the modification of the exchange rate, as well as how it has influenced the
current account balance, achieved using arc-type coefficients shows that for the 3
intervals of steeper increase of the exchange rate, in the period 2007-2013, the effects
were favourable for improving the trade balance. In the context of the financial crisis,
the exports of agricultural products to developing countries were responsive to the
variation of the exchange rate, also observed after a 2-3 months delay. In contrast, the
imports of agricultural products from developing countries were less sensitive to the
depreciation of the national currency, the negative coefficients of elasticity recorded
values between 41.72 and 0.02. The autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation
coefficients indicate that the investigated data series were affected by seasonality, for
whose analysis I used the Holt Winters model. In January and February, the seasonal
factor deflected both flows of the foreign trade in agricultural products with developing
countries under the line trend, with an average of 15.6 percent for outputs and 5.9
percent for inputs. In March and April, the seasonal factor caused, on average, an
increase of the exports of agricultural products in developing countries by 27.63 percent
and 23.92 percent above the long-term trend. In the same interval, on the imports side,
the seasonal factor produced, on average, a growth of the inflows of agricultural
products from developing countries by 38.05 percent and 7.54 percent above the trend
line. In the period from June to August, the seasonal factor caused the diminution of the
activity of foreign trade of agricultural products with developing countries compared to
the trend line. In September and October, the seasonality indices calculated for the two
components of the trade balance with agricultural products with developing countries
were supra-units for exports and sub-units for imports. The seasonal factor determined a
growth of the foreign trade of agricultural products with developing countries compared
to the trend line in November and December. The following contributed to this
evolution: the prohibition of trading pig meat in the first quarter of 2007; positive results
on the vegetal segment (2008, 2010, 2013); the restriction of the consumption of pork
meat with the appearance of the first cases of AH1N1 virus contamination in Europe
(January 2009); the implementation on 1st January 2012 of the provisions of the
76
European Union on the poultry breeding conditions which led to a shortage of supply
for a short period of time; the decision of some farmers to limit the sales on the domestic
market in the context of rising international prices (2010); the modest results recorded
in the livestock subsector; the losses registered on the pork and beef market due to
higher production costs; the insufficient adaptation of the domestic producers to the
requirements of the domestic and international markets; the resumption of the supply of
poultry meat and eggs to Russia (2011); the increase in slaughtering on the poultry meat
segment due to the high costs of feeding stuffs (2012); the increase in the supply of sheep
and mutton mainly to Bosnia and Herzegovina, Jordan, Lebanon and Libya by the
restriction of the domestic supply (2011, 2012, 2013); the unfavourable weather
conditions (2007, 2010, 2012) which led to increased imports of cereals, edible fruit and
nuts, peel of citrus fruits or melons mainly from Turkey, China, Egypt.
Toderoiu (2013:155) mentioned that Romanias agri-food sector is under process of
restructuring and settling its structures on the market principles. The structural reform
finality should be competitiveness increase in the overall agri-food sector and in each of its
components. For reaching the economic performance objectives it is necessary to evaluate
what has been achieved so far and to outline the development directions in perspective.
In the second chapter entitled Structural autoregressive vector models I used the VAR
technique in order to assess the factors influencing on the demand for food products. In this
regard, I built two models, using the quarterly data from the period 2007-2013.
Model I
CABC Expenditures for consumed food and beverages monthly average values per
person, lei. Source: NIS
VB Money income monthly average values per person, lei. Source: NIS
TE Remittances from abroad and current private transfers by non-residents,
million lei. Source: NBR
The data series used in the model are expressed in the average prices of 2005 and seasonally
adjusted using the TRAMO/SEATS procedure. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller test
77
(Dickey&Fuller, 1979) and the Phillips-Perron test (Phillips&Perron, 1988) show that the
three variables are stationary. The choice of the optimum number of lags in estimating the
VAR model was based on the Schwarz information criterion (1978) that indicates a period as
optimum lag. The tests carried out on the residual errors showed that they are normally
distributed, have a constant variance and no autocorrelation. In addition, according to the
CUSUM and CUSUM of squares tests (see Brown, Durbin & Evans, 1975), the coefficients of
the model equation are stable at a statistically significant level of 5 percent.
In the model, I adopted the orthogonalization method proposed by Sims and Bernanke
(1986). The imposed restrictions indicate that, within a quarter time horizon, the expenditures
for consumed food and beverages are influenced by the money income and the remittances
from abroad, and current private transfers by non-residents, while the latter respond to the
developments in money income. In addition, each variable is influenced by itself.
The impulse response functions indicate that the expenditures for consumed food and
beverages respond negatively to monetary income shocks in the first six quarters and then
positively. A shock of a standard deviation of the variable residuals expressing the
remittances from abroad, and current private transfers by non-residents reaches the peak
after five quarters, followed by a period of gradual depreciation. The variance decomposition
indicates that the variation of expenditures for consumed food and beverages at a horizon of
3 quarters is explained in a proportion of 87.62 percent by own innovations. At longer
horizons, the shocks of the money income and remittances from abroad, and current private
transfers by non-residents have an increasing contribution to CABC. The correlation of the
Granger causality with the variance decomposition suggests that influence of both the VB and
the TE are significant, as they have a regular and anticipatory character.
Model II
78
The series are expressed in the average prices of 2005. The values of the imports of
agricultural products from developing countries were deflated by the unit value indices of
international trade, that of domestic absorption by the corresponding price indices and that of
the exchange rate by the CPI. All variables were seasonally adjusted using TRAMO/SEATS
procedure. Both the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test and the Phillips-Perron test indicated that
the three variables are integrated of order one. The tests for choosing the number of lags
indicate three lags as the optimal number. Using three lags, the VAR becomes unstable,
which is why I chose to use two lags. The Johansen multivariate procedure signalled the
presence of a single cointegration vector at a statistically significant level of 5 percent. The
solution of the characteristic equation indicates a stable VAR. The tests carried out on the
residual errors showed that they are normally distributed and have a constant variance.
Instead, there is autocorrelation at lag one. Furthermore, according to the CUSUM and
CUSUM of squares tests, the coefficients of the model equation are stable at a statistically
significant level of 5 percent.
In the present model, I adopted the orthogonalization method proposed by Sims and
Bernanke. The imposed restrictions indicate that, within a quarter time horizon, the imports
of agricultural products from developing countries are affected by the domestic absorption
and the exchange rate. In turn, the domestic absorption influences the exchange rate.
The impulse response functions indicate that the imports of agricultural products from
developing countries respond negatively to shocks to the domestic absorption and to those
coming from exchange rate in the first nine quarters, respectively in the first three quarters
and then positively. In addition, the IPA responds positively to the own innovations. The
variance decomposition illustrates that the shocks of the domestic absorption and exchange
rate explain 20.68 percent and 15.12 percent of change IPA after 12 quarters. The Granger
causality test shows that the future values of agricultural imports from developing countries
are explained by the past values of the domestic absorption and exchange rate.
Demand for food is relatively stable and less elastic, while supply is variable and difficult to
change on short notice. From this perspective, knowledge of demand and consumption of food
products in our country is absolutely necessary as it: (i) enables those responsible for
agricultural and food policies to assess the market potential and to anticipate future
developments; (ii) enables farmers to adopt their production to the systematic fluctuation
generating factors in the agricultural sector; (iii) guides the distributors in choosing the
range of the products that they will sell.
79
In the third chapter entitled Models with cointegrating vectors and error correction vectors
I econometrically quantify the relationship between imports of agricultural products from
developing countries and the determinants. I included the following variables in the analysis:
The series have a quarterly frequency and cover the period 2007Q1-2013Q4. The values of
the imports of agricultural products from developing countries were deflated by the unit value
indices of international trade, that of domestic demand by the corresponding price indices
and that of the exchange rate by the CPI. All variables were seasonally adjusted using an
average mobile procedure and expressed in natural logarithms. Both the Augmented Dickey-
Fuller test and the Phillips-Perron test indicated that the three variables are integrated of
order I. The optimal number of delays used to identify a possible long-term equilibrium
relationship between the considered variables was determined by estimating a VAR model.
Since the Akaike (1974,1976), Schwarz (1978) and Hannan, Quinn (1979) criteria selected 3
lags, a VEC with 2 difference lags was estimated. The Johansen multivariate procedure
indicated the presence of a single cointegration vector at a statistically significant level of 5
percent. The tests carried out on the residual errors showed that they are normally
distributed, according to the Jarque Bera multivariate test (the corresponding probability
being 0.1652), have a constant variance (a probability of 0.3465) and no autocorrelation
(0.1342 and 0.1411 probabilities related to LM tests with 1 and respectively 2 lags). The
obtained cointegration relationship (t-statistics are in brackets [ ]):
All coefficients of the cointegration vector are statistically significant and have anticipated
signs. The hypothesis, according to which the long-term effects of the domestic demand
(2=23.26) and the exchange rate (2=8.45) are null, are not accepted with a probability of
80
over 99.6 percent. The coefficient associated to domestic demand in the long-term
relationship is supra-unitary, while the ratio of investments and final consumption amounted
to 35.61 percent. The national currency depreciating leads to a decrease in the imports of
agricultural products from developing countries. The currency risk for net importing
companies is relatively high, as they cannot fully convey the impact of a higher exchange rate
on the goods they commercialize on the internal market. For such companies, the share of
loans granted in the GDP has gradually increased from 24.97 percent in 2008 Q2 to 35.08
percent in 2014 Q2, with the increase of non-performing loan rate from 0.07 percent to about
3.8 percent. At the end of 2013, the leverage effect stood at 1.2, compared with 1.09 for the
net exporting companies and 2.39 for non-financial corporations sector as a whole.
The adjustment speed of the long-term equilibrium is -0.485 (with a t-statistic of -2.262),
which shows that the deviation of the imports of agricultural products from developing
countries from the equilibrium level accommodates in about 3 quarters.
The weak exogeneity test results show that both the domestic demand and the exchange rate
are weak exogenous. The weak exogenous character of the domestic demand stresses that CI
is determined outside the system (it is not that CI is determined by IPA, but IPA are
determined by CI). The weak exogenous character of the exchange rate illustrates that the CV
does not adjust if certain shocks cause the deviation of the imports of agricultural products
from developing countries from the long-term equilibrium (the unidirectional causal
relationship between CV and IPA).
Next, I investigated the possible relationship between the short-term dynamics of the imports
of agricultural products from developing countries and the determinants. In this regard, I
used the general-to-specific approach by excluding the insignificant lags. The adjustment
speed to the equilibrium is -0.369 (with a t-statistic of -5.041), which indicates that the
imports of agricultural products from developing countries adjust in the current quarter in
case of a deviation from the equilibrium level in the previous quarter. The imports of
agricultural products from developing countries are influenced in the short term by the
variation of the domestic demand, foreign trade companies trying to adapt to the demand
which is viable. Instead, the exchange rate does not affect the imports of agricultural products
from developing countries in the short term. The estimated model passed the diagnostic tests.
The residues are not auto correlated. In addition, they are normally distributed and
homoscedastic. Furthermore, according to the CUSUM and CUSUM of squares tests, the
coefficients of the model equation are stable at a statistically significant level of 5 percent.
81
The imports of agricultural products from developing countries are Granger caused by both
the domestic demand (p-value test: 0.0012) and the exchange rate (p-value test: 0.0042).
Therefore, the future values of the imports of agricultural products from developing countries
are explained by the past values of the domestic demand and the exchange rate.
Romania, as an EU member state, provides technical assistance to developing countries to
include trade in their government policies. However, during 2007-2013, the African,
Caribbean and Pacific countries contributed, on average, with only 3.67 percent to the total
volume of Romanias imports of agricultural products from developing countries.
82
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89
ANEXA I
Model I
90
Model II
0.884012 0.884012
0.631825 - 0.362190i 0.728275
0.631825 + 0.362190i 0.728275
-0.424351 0.424351
0.311717 - 0.225592i 0.384784
0.311717 + 0.225592i 0.384784
91
ANEXA II
TESTE DIAGNOSTIC:
Model I
1 3.136897 2 0.2084
2 0.451659 2 0.7979
3 0.658456 2 0.7195
92
VAR Residual Heteroskedasticity Tests: No Cross Terms
Date: 08/01/15 Time: 12:20
Sample: 2007Q1 2013Q4
Included observations: 26
Joint test:
Chi-sq df Prob.
47.74409 48 0.4833
Individual components:
1 10.84058 0.2868
2 11.91191 0.2183
3 11.61768 0.2357
4 13.60488 0.1371
5 4.601871 0.8675
6 12.02007 0.2122
7 9.948216 0.3547
8 11.65673 0.2334
9 12.21109 0.2017
10 11.62893 0.2350
11 9.711238 0.3744
12 11.81715 0.2238
93
Model II
1 2.795229 2 0.2472
2 3.191323 2 0.2028
3 2.977847 2 0.2256
Joint 8.964399 6 0.1756
94
VAR Residual Heteroskedasticity Tests: No Cross Terms
Date: 08/01/15 Time: 12:35
Sample: 2007Q1 2013Q4
Included observations: 26
Joint test:
Chi-sq df Prob.
80.92171 72 0.2207
Individual components:
95
ANEXA III
Model I
96
Model II
97