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Profitability
Categories of ratios:
Profitability: These lecture notes.
Short-Term Liquidity, Capital Structure, and Analysis of Financial
Distress, all in the next set of lecture notes.
Decomposing ROE into these two components provides insight into how a firms
operating activities/policies and its leverage/capital structure policies are each
contributing to (i.e., driving) the firms ROE.
The Financial Leverage Effect measures the impact on ROE from introducing
leverage into the firms capital structure.
Note: Average values for all balance sheet items appearing on the following slides
are implicitly used, however to save space and improve clarity, I suppress the
notation average.
To uncover the reasons for changes in the NOPAT margin from year-to-year,
carefully study the relation between sales and various expenses each year
That is, perform common-size analysis of the income statement.
To uncover the reasons for any changes in the Net Operating Asset turnover ratio
from year-to-year, carefully study the turnover ratios of individual assets each year.
Namely, A/R, Inventory, Operating Working Capital, PP&E and A/P turnover ratios which
we will discuss in a few slides.
Economic interpretations:
Changes can signal:
1) A firm making investments in anticipation of higher future sales.
So a low or decreasing rate of turnover might be an indication of an expanding firm
preparing for future growth.
2) On the other hand, a firm may cut back capital expenditures if its near-term
outlook is poor.
Such an action could lead to an increase in the PP&E turnover ratio.
Perhaps a more intuitive measure of the rate A/P are being paid is:
Days Payable Outstanding (DPO) = 360 (or 365) / A/P Turnover.
This ratio is also known as A/P days, days payable, days cost of goods sold in A/P or days purchases in A/P.
Economic interpretations:
1) When a firm begins to experience financial difficulty, DPO typically begins to rise.
That is, one of the first actions taken by a firm in financial difficulty is to begin paying suppliers
slower to exploit the interest-free financing suppliers are providing.
2) Too short a DPO might mean a firm is not exploiting the (implicit) interest-free
financing suppliers are providing.
Or it might be that suppliers cash discounts for prompt payment are too good to pass up.
Retailing:
Autos-new and used 63 5 2 66
Boat dealers 159 4 6 157
Drinking places (alcoholic) 19 0 23 -4
Groceries and meats 23 2 14 11
Jewelry 261 11 66 206
Vending machine operators 32 3 29 6
Service:
Accounting, auditing, and bookkeeping - 62 - 62
Amusement parks--Outdoor - 1 - 1
Auto repair-general - 11 - 11
Consulting services-management - 59 - 59
Chiropractors - 4 - 4
Refuse systems - 41 - 41
GATEWAY XXX4 XXX5 XXX6 XXX7 XXX8 XXX9 XX10 XX11 XX12
Inventory
days 22.9 20.3 22.2 18.2 12.7 9.6 12.1 15.0 10.4
A/R days 28.2 32.2 30.6 27.5 25.8 25.1 22.3 22.6 18.0
Operating
cycle 51.1 52.5 52.8 45.7 38.5 34.7 34.4 37.6 28.4
A/P days 24.4 23.8 28.2 31.2 37.2 43.0 39.5 40.2 31.2
Cash cycle 26.7 28.7 24.6 14.5 1.3 -8.3 -5.1 -2.6 -2.8
Dell
Computer: XXX4 XXX5 XXX6 XXX7 XXX8 XXX9 XX10 XX11 XX12
Inventory
days 33.8 30.7 20.1 9.1 6.4 6.0 5.6 4.8 3.6
A/R days 49.1 43.0 37.8 34.9 35.3 33.5 31.1 29.8 24.7
Operating
cycle 82.9 73.7 57.9 44.0 41.7 39.5 36.7 34.6 28.3
A/P days 46.8 37.7 45.8 50.4 51.3 53.0 55.3 66.0 68.5
Cash cycle 36.1 36.0 12.1 -6.4 -9.6 -13.5 -18.6 -31.4 -40.2
Prof. Charles E. Wasley 25
A Multiplicative Decomposition of ROE (the
traditional decomposition)
ROE = (Net Income - Preferred Stock Dividends) / Average Common
Stockholders Equity
Cost of
Common Capital leverage
ROE = ROA * Earnings * Structure
Leverage Leverage
(CEL) (LEV) Amount
of leverage
ROE = NOPAT / Average Total Assets *
(Net Income - Preferred Dividends) / NOPAT *
Average Total Assets / Average Common Stockholders Equity
The last term (LEV) measures the proportion of leverage (and preferred stock) in a
firms capital structure.
That is, the degree to which the firm uses the investment of common shareholders
versus creditors (and preferred shareholders) to finance itself.
The higher LEV, the less capital obtained from common shareholders (i.e., the lower
their investment).
UPSHOT:
When a firm can generate earnings using debt and preferred stock that
exceeds the cost of such capital, the excess return belongs to common
shareholders.
Insight into changes in ROA (hence ROE) over time and versus
competitors can be achieved by decomposing ROA into:
1) NOPAT (profit) margin.
NOPAT margin measures a firms ability to generate after-tax operating income
from a particular level of sales.
2) Total asset turnover.
Total asset turnover measures the ability to generate sales from a particular
investment in total assets.
Prof. Charles E. Wasley 30
A Multiplicative Decomposition of ROE (the
traditional decomposition)
Calculate ROE:
Additive decomposition:
Decompose ROE into Operating ROA + Financial Leverage Effect.
Decompose NOPAT margin into the underlying expense ratios. Evaluate components.
Decompose operating asset turnover into individual turnover ratios. Evaluate components.
Evaluate the cash cycle. Evaluate components.
Decompose the financial leverage effect into spread and net debt. Evaluate components.
Multiplicative decomposition:
Decompose ROE into ROA, CEL and LEV.
Decompose ROA into NOPAT margin and asset turnover.
Decompose NOPAT margin into the underlying expense ratios. Evaluate components.
Decompose total asset turnover into individual turnover rates. Evaluate components.
Evaluate the cash cycle. Evaluate components.
Evaluate CEL and LEV.
Prof. Charles E. Wasley 32
Summary of ROE Analysis
Analysis of a firms ratios for a period of years and versus competitors allows a
user of financial statement information to identify and track historical trends and
variability.
A firms ratios should not only be compared with its own past performance, but
also the current and past performance of other firms in the industry.
Caveats:
Before placing complete reliance on a set of ratios one should ask:
Has the firm made a change in its product, geographic, or customer mix that would affect
the comparability of the ratios over time?
Has the firm made a major acquisition or divestiture?
Has the firm changed accounting methods over time?
FISCAL YEAR ENDED (MOST RECENT YEAR FIRST) 31-Jan-2014 31-Jan-2013 31-Jan-2012 31-Jan-2011 31-Jan-2010 31-Jan-2009 31-Jan-2008 31-Jan-2007 31-Jan-2006
KEY DRIVERS OF RETURN ON EQUITY
COST OF GOODS/SALES 75.2% 75.2% 75.0% 74.7% 74.5% 75.2% 75.4% 75.8% 76.1%
GROSS PROFIT MARGIN 24.8% 24.8% 25.0% 25.3% 25.5% 24.8% 24.6% 24.2% 23.9%
SELLING, GENERAL & ADMINISTRATIVE EXPENSES/SALES 19.2% 18.9% 19.0% 19.3% 19.5% 19.2% 18.8% 18.3% 17.9%
INTEREST INCOME/SALES 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
INTEREST EXPENSE/SALES 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5%
MINORITY INTEREST/SALES 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES/SALES 19.2% 18.9% 19.0% 19.3% 19.6% 19.2% 18.8% 18.3% 17.9%
EBT/SALES 5.2% 5.5% 5.4% 5.6% 5.4% 5.2% 5.3% 5.4% 5.6%
EBIT/SALES 5.6% 5.9% 5.9% 6.1% 5.9% 5.6% 5.8% 5.9% 6.0%
EBITDA/SALES 5.6% 5.9% 5.9% 6.1% 5.9% 5.6% 5.8% 5.9% 6.0%
INCOME TAX/ SALES 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9%
NET INCOME/SALES 3.4% 3.6% 3.5% 3.9% 3.5% 3.3% 3.4% 3.2% 3.6%
FISCAL YEAR ENDED (MOST RECENT YEAR FIRST) 01-Feb-2014 02-Feb-2013 28-Jan-2012 29-Jan-2011 30-Jan-2010 31-Jan-2009 02-Feb-2008 03-Feb-2007 28-Jan-2006
KEY DRIVERS OF RETURN ON EQUITY
COST OF GOODS/SALES 70.5% 69.0% 68.5% 67.9% 67.4% 68.0% 67.7% 67.9% 66.4%
GROSS PROFIT MARGIN 29.5% 31.0% 31.5% 32.1% 32.6% 32.0% 32.3% 32.1% 33.6%
SELLING, GENERAL & ADMINISTRATIVE EXPENSES/SALE 21.2% 20.3% 20.2% 20.0% 20.0% 19.9% 20.0% 19.9% 21.3%
DEPRECIATION & AMORTIZATION EXPENSE/SALES 3.1% 2.9% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 2.8% 2.6% 2.5% 2.7%
INTEREST EXPENSE/SALES 0.9% 1.0% 1.2% 1.1% 1.2% 1.4% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0%
Credit card expenses/SALES 0.0% 0.6% 0.6% 1.3% 2.3% 2.5% 1.3% 1.2% 1.5%
Gain on receivables transaction/SALES -0.5% -0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
G/L on early Exting. of lease relat debt/SALES 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES/SALES 24.3% 23.7% 23.9% 24.4% 25.4% 25.2% 23.9% 23.6% 25.3%
EBT/SALES 4.3% 6.3% 6.4% 6.7% 5.9% 5.4% 7.3% 7.6% 7.3%
EBIT/SALES 5.2% 7.3% 7.6% 7.8% 7.1% 6.8% 8.3% 8.5% 8.3%
EBITDA/SALES 8.3% 10.2% 10.7% 10.9% 10.2% 9.6% 10.9% 11.0% 11.0%
INCOME TAX/ SALES 1.6% 2.2% 2.2% 2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 2.8% 2.9% 2.8%
NET INCOME/SALES 2.7% 4.1% 4.2% 4.3% 3.8% 3.4% 4.5% 4.7% 4.6%
Target Corporation
FISCAL YEAR ENDED (MOST RECENT YEAR FIRST) 01-Feb-2014 02-Feb-2013 28-Jan-2012 29-Jan-2011 30-Jan-2010 31-Jan-2009 02-Feb-2008 03-Feb-2007 28-Jan-2006
ASSET MANAGEMENT RATIOS
A/R TURNOVER #DIV/0! 24.73 11.57 10.27 8.69 8.05 8.89 10.03 9.80
INVENTORY TURNOVER 6.14 6.39 6.17 6.19 6.35 6.55 6.59 6.68 6.22
ACCOUNTS PAYABLE TURNOVER (PURCHASES) 7.35 7.93 7.80 7.34 6.93 6.75 6.54 6.35 5.87
ACCOUNTS PAYABLE TURNOVER (CGS) 7.23 7.93 7.75 7.27 6.86 6.76 6.46 6.29 5.80
DAYS' RECEIVABLES #DIV/0! 14.55 31.12 35.04 41.45 44.73 40.47 35.89 36.72
DAYS' INVENTORY 58.65 56.32 58.35 58.16 56.72 54.97 54.65 53.92 57.83
DAYS' PAYABLE (PURCHASES) 48.96 45.40 46.13 49.07 51.93 53.32 55.07 56.69 61.29
DAYS' PAYABLE (CGS) 49.79 45.38 46.44 49.51 52.49 53.23 55.75 57.27 62.09
PP&E TURNOVER 2.34 2.45 2.56 2.65 2.56 2.61 2.78 2.94 2.93
NET LONG-TERM ASSET TURNOVER 2.49 2.62 2.73 2.85 2.75 2.73 2.88 3.03 3.02
OPERATING WORKING CAPITAL TO SALES 2.6% 6.6% 7.7% 9.0% 10.7% 10.8% 8.5% 6.8% 7.5%
OPERATING WORKING CAPITAL TURNOVER 37.93 15.08 13.05 11.10 9.36 9.27 11.76 14.76 13.35
CASH CYCLE (IN DAYS) #DIV/0! 25.47 43.34 44.14 46.24 46.38 40.05 33.12 33.27
PROP, PLANT & EQUIP (GROSS) $178,678 $171,724 $160,938 $154,489 $143,517 $131,161 $127,992 $115,190 $100,929 $88,593
ACCUMULATED DEP -$60,771 -$55,043 -$48,614 -$46,611 -$41,210 -$35,508 -$31,125 -$26,750 -$23,064 -$20,475
PROP, PLANT & EQUIP (NET) $117,907.0 $116,681.0 $112,324.0 $107,878.0 $102,307.0 $95,653.0 $96,867.0 $88,440.0 $77,865.0 $68,118.0
GOODWILL $19,510 $20,497 $20,651 $16,763 $16,126 $15,260 $15,879 $13,759 $12,097 $10,803
Other assets and deferred charges $6,149 $5,987 $5,456 $4,129 $3,942 $3,567 $2,748 $2,406 $4,400 $2,379
TOTAL LONG-TERM ASSETS $143,566.0 $143,165.0 $138,431.0 $128,770.0 $122,375.0 $114,480.0 $115,494.0 $104,605.0 $94,362.0 $81,300.0
TOTAL ASSETS $204,751.0 $203,105.0 $193,406.0 $180,782.0 $170,407.0 $163,429.0 $163,514.0 $151,587.0 $138,187.0 $120,154.0
FISCAL YEAR ENDED (MOST RECENT YEAR FIRST) 31-Jan-2014 31-Jan-2013 31-Jan-2012 31-Jan-2011 31-Jan-2010 31-Jan-2009 31-Jan-2008 31-Jan-2007 31-Jan-2006 31-Jan-2005
ACCOUNTS PAYABLE $37,415 $38,080 $36,608 $33,676 $30,451 $28,849 $30,344 $28,484 $25,101 $21,987
ACCRUED EXPENSES $18,793 $18,808 $18,180 $18,701 $18,734 $18,112 $15,725 $14,675 $13,274 $12,120
ACCRUED TAXES PAYABLE $966 $2,211 $1,164 $157 $1,347 $677 $1,000 $706 $1,340 $1,281
Current liabilities of discontinued oper $89 $0.0 $0.0 $47 $92 $83 $140 $0.0 $477 $0.0
SHORT-TERM DEBT $7,670 $6,805 $4,047 $1,031 $523 $1,506 $5,040 $2,570 $3,754 $3,812
CURRENT PORTION OF LTD $4,103 $5,587 $1,975 $4,655 $4,050 $5,848 $5,913 $5,428 $4,595 $3,759
CURRENT PORTION OF CAPITAL LEASES $309 $327 $326 $336 $346 $315 $316 $285 $284 $223
TOTAL CURRENT LIAB $69,345.0 $71,818.0 $62,300.0 $58,603.0 $55,543.0 $55,390.0 $58,478.0 $52,148.0 $48,825.0 $43,182.0
LONG TERM DEBT $41,771 $38,394 $44,070 $40,692 $33,231 $31,349 $29,799 $27,222 $26,429 $20,087
CAPITAL LEASE OBLIGATIONS $2,788 $3,023 $3,009 $3,150 $3,170 $3,200 $3,603 $3,513 $3,667 $3,171
Deferred income taxes and other $8,017 $7,613 $7,862 $6,682 $5,508 $6,014 $5,087 $4,971 $4,630 $2,978
Redeemable noncontrolling interest $1,491 $519 $404 $408 $307 $397 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Nonredeemable noncontrolling interest $5,084 $5,395 $4,446 $2,705 $2,180 $1,794 $1,939 $2,160 $1,465 $1,340
TOTAL INTEREST BEARING LTL $44,559.0 $41,417.0 $47,079.0 $43,842.0 $36,401.0 $34,549.0 $33,402.0 $30,735.0 $30,096.0 $23,258.0
TOTAL NON-INTEREST BEARING LTL $14,592.0 $13,527.0 $12,712.0 $9,795.0 $7,995.0 $8,205.0 $7,026.0 $7,131.0 $6,095.0 $4,318.0
TOTAL LONG-TERM LIABILITIES $59,151.0 $54,944.0 $59,791.0 $53,637.0 $44,396.0 $42,754.0 $40,428.0 $37,866.0 $36,191.0 $27,576.0
TOTAL LIABILITIES $128,496.0 $126,762.0 $122,091.0 $112,240.0 $99,939.0 $98,144.0 $98,906.0 $90,014.0 $85,016.0 $70,758.0
COMMON STOCK $323 $332 $342 $352 $378 $393 $397 $413 $417 $423
PAID IN CAPITAL $2,362 $3,620 $3,692 $3,577 $3,803 $3,920 $3,028 $2,834 $2,596 $2,425
RETAINED EARNINGS $76,566 $72,978 $68,691 $63,967 $66,357 $63,660 $57,319 $55,818 $49,105 $43,854
ACCUMULATED COMPREHENSIVE INCOME (LOSS) -$2,996 -$587 -$1,410 $646 -$70 -$2,688 $3,864 $2,508 $1,053 $2,694
TOTAL SHAREHOLDER EQUITY $76,255.0 $76,343.0 $71,315.0 $68,542.0 $70,468.0 $65,285.0 $64,608.0 $61,573.0 $53,171.0 $49,396.0
TOTAL LIABILITIES & SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY $204,751.0 $203,105.0 $193,406.0 $180,782.0 $170,407.0 $163,429.0 $163,514.0 $151,587.0 $138,187.0 $120,154.0
PROP, PLANT & EQUIP (GROSS) $45,780 $43,964 $41,531 $37,048 $35,765 $34,816 $31,982 $28,381 $25,214 $22,272
ACCUMULATED DEP $14,402 $13,311 $12,382 $11,555 $10,485 $9,060 $7,887 $6,950 $6,176 $5,412
PROP, PLANT & EQUIP (NET) $31,378.0 $30,653.0 $29,149.0 $25,493.0 $25,280.0 $25,756.0 $24,095.0 $21,431.0 $19,038.0 $16,860.0
Company-owned life insurance investments $305 $269 $371 $358 $319 $305 $578 $559 $524 $446
GOODWILL $151 $59 $59 $59 $59 $60 $60 $60.0 $60.0 $206.0
INTANGIBLE ASSETS $206 $165 $183 $164 $180 $171 $148 $152 $123 $0.0
Interest Rate Swaps $62 $85 $114 $139 $131 $163 $215 $23 $0 $0
Prepaid Pension Expense $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1 $394 $325 $752 $733
OTHER LONG-TERM ASSETS $409 $338 $249 $279 $140 $162 $164 $93 $93 $126
TOTAL LONG-TERM ASSETS $32,511.0 $31,569.0 $30,125.0 $26,492.0 $26,109.0 $26,618.0 $25,654.0 $22,643.0 $20,590.0 $18,371.0
TOTAL ASSETS $44,084.0 $47,957.0 $46,574.0 $43,705.0 $44,533.0 $44,106.0 $44,560.0 $37,349.0 $34,995.0 $32,293.0
FISCAL YEAR ENDED (MOST RECENT YEAR FIRST) 01-Feb-2014 02-Feb-2013 28-Jan-2012 29-Jan-2011 30-Jan-2010 31-Jan-2009 02-Feb-2008 03-Feb-2007 28-Jan-2006 29-Jan-2005
ACCOUNTS PAYABLE $7,683 $6,468 $6,282 $6,067 $6,511 $6,337 $6,721 $6,575 $6,268 $5,779
ACCRUED EXPENSES $2,835 $3,471 $3,184 $3,039 $2,477 $2,282 $2,337 $2,195 $2,193 $1,633
ACCRUED TAXES PAYABLE $221 $272 $257 $144 $24 $0 $111 $422 $374 $304
Gift Card Liability $521 $503 $467 $422 $387 $381 $372 $338 $0 $0
Interest Payable $85 $91 $109 $103 $105 $130 $162 $122 $0 $0
Dividends Payable $272 $232 $202 $176 $127 $120 $115 $103 $0 $0
CURRENT PORTION OF LTD $1,160 $2,994 $3,786 $119 $1,696 $1,262 $1,964 $1,362 $753 $504
TOTAL CURRENT LIAB $12,777.0 $14,031.0 $14,287.0 $10,070.0 $11,327.0 $10,512.0 $11,782.0 $11,117.0 $9,588.0 $8,220.0
LONG TERM DEBT $12,622 $14,654 $13,697 $15,607 $15,118 $17,490 $15,126 $8,675 $9,119 $9,034
DEFERRED TAXES $1,433 $1,311 $1,191 $934 $835 $455 $470 $577 $851 $973
Other noncurrent liabilities $1,375 $1,439 $1,409 $1,479 $1,728 $1,619 $1,733 $1,347 $1,232 $1,037
Pension and postretirement health care $115 $170 $225 $128 $178 $318 $142 $0 $0 $0
TOTAL INTEREST BEARING LTL $12,622.0 $14,654.0 $13,697.0 $15,607.0 $15,118.0 $17,490.0 $15,126.0 $8,675.0 $9,119.0 $9,034.0
TOTAL NON-INTEREST BEARING LTL $2,923.0 $2,920.0 $2,825.0 $2,541.0 $2,741.0 $2,392.0 $2,345.0 $1,924.0 $2,083.0 $2,010.0
TOTAL LONG-TERM LIABILITIES $15,545.0 $17,574.0 $16,522.0 $18,148.0 $17,859.0 $19,882.0 $17,471.0 $10,599.0 $11,202.0 $11,044.0
TOTAL LIABILITIES $28,322.0 $31,605.0 $30,809.0 $28,218.0 $29,186.0 $30,394.0 $29,253.0 $21,716.0 $20,790.0 $19,264.0
COMMON STOCK $53 $54 $56 $59 $62 $63 $68 $72 $73 $74
PAID IN CAPITAL $4,470 $3,925 $3,487 $3,311 $2,919 $2,762 $2,656 $2,387 $2,121 $1,810
RETAINED EARNINGS $12,599 $13,155 $12,959 $12,698 $12,947 $11,443 $12,761 $13,417 $12,013 $11,148
ACCUMULATED COMPREHENSIVE INCOME (LOSS) -$1,360.0 -$782.0 -$737.0 -$581.0 -$581.0 -$556.0 -$178.0 -$243.0 -$2.0 -$3.0
TOTAL SHAREHOLDER EQUITY $15,762.0 $16,352.0 $15,765.0 $15,487.0 $15,347.0 $13,712.0 $15,307.0 $15,633.0 $14,205.0 $13,029.0
TOTAL LIABILITIES & SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY $44,084.0 $47,957.0 $46,574.0 $43,705.0 $44,533.0 $44,106.0 $44,560.0 $37,349.0 $34,995.0 $32,293.0