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BRS Research
Chevron Lubricants Lanka PLC (LLUB: LKR 368.60)
Head of Research - Nikita Tissera
Low base oil offsetting dropping market share : HOLD Senior Research Analyst - Jennita Fernando
LLUB achieved a 11.6% YoY growth in bottom line in Q3 FY 15, aided by cost savings through
favourable base oil prices, expanded margins and growth in net finance income. The EBIT
margin improved to 36.4% (Q3 FY 14 32.1%) while the GP margin expanded 5% YoY to Trading Snapshot
45.9%. The companys top line dropped 2.8% YoY with lower average sales prices (SP) as dis-
Market cap (LKR mn) 43,788
counts were offered during the period. Considering the slow industry growth we have main-
Market cap (USD mn) 306
tained minimal volume growth in the forecast period. Although LLUB is liable to pay super
gains tax of LKR 847mn in Q4 FY 15, we still maintain our forecast DPS given the strong cash Outstanding equity shares (mn) 120
flow. The dividend yield stands at 5.5% at CMP. We have arrived at a DCF based TP of LKR Public Holding (%) - Sep '15 49.00%
356 and total return of LKR 376 (inclu. FY 2015E DPS) with a 2% upside, following the drop in 52-week High/Low (LKR) 456.50/313.00
share price since the last review. We upgrade to HOLD.
YTD ASPI return (%) -4.0%
All figures in LKR mn 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
YTD Stock return (%) -8.7%
Revenue 11,040 11,754 11,197 11,520 11,399 12,089 12,701
Revenue growth (%) 16.6% 6.5% -4.7% 2.9% -1.0% 6.1% 5.1% Beta 0.47
Gross profit 3,474 3,804 4,120 4,603 4,934 5,379 5,653
Gross profit margin (%) 31.5% 32.4% 36.8% 40.0% 43.3% 44.5% 44.5% Valuation Summary
EBIT recurring 2,713 2,913 3,174 3,566 3,945 4,309 4,513
EBIT margin (%) 24.6% 24.8% 28.3% 31.0% 34.6% 35.6% 35.5% CMP (LKR) 368.60
Profit attributable to equity holders 1,988 2,261 2,531 2,742 3,017 3,204 3,382
BRS EPS As Adjusted (LKR) 16.57 18.84 21.10 22.85 25.14 26.70 28.19 Intrinsic value (LKR) 355.54
BRS EPS growth (%) 32.4% 13.7% 11.9% 8.3% 10.0% 6.2% 5.6% DPS (LKR) 20.00
NAV per share (LKR) 26.32 34.45 40.33 43.33 41.40 46.10 50.29
DPS (LKR) 9.00 11.00 15.00 20.00 20.00 22.00 24.00 Target price based on total return (LKR) 375.54
Dividend yield (%) 5.3% 5.4% 5.6% 5.0% 5.4% 6.0% 6.5%
Valuation method DCF valuation
P/E (x) 10.3 x 10.7 x 12.7 x 17.5 x 14.7 x 13.8 x 13.1 x
P/BV (x) 6.5 x 5.9 x 6.6 x 9.2 x 8.9 x 8.0 x 7.3 x Total return % 1.9%
ROE % 73.7% 62.0% 56.4% 54.6% 59.3% 61.0% 58.5%
Rating Hold
Source: Company data and BRS Equity Research
a deteriorating trend (refer page 4), hence, we have maintained marginal volume growth (1% - 6000 350
2%) in the forecast period. Notwithstanding, the industry-wide competition and shrinking mar- 300
ket share, LLUB has been able widen its GP and EBIT margins through a shift in product mix. We 5000
250
maintain our GP margins at 43%-44.5% and EBIT margins at ~35% from FY 2015E to FY 2017E.
4000 200
Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15
Dividend yield >5% at CMP
LLUB declared three interim dividends so far in FY 2015E totalling to LKR 17. We maintain the
DPS and Payout Ratio
previous assumption on FY 2015E DPS at LKR 20, given the healthy cash position, despite the
DPS (LKR) %
super gains tax payment of LKR 847mn being due in Q4 FY 15. However, with the drop in MPS, DPS Payout ratio
120%
LLUBs dividend yield stands at 5.5%. We expect LLUBs dividend payout to continue to be above 24.00
80% during FY 2016E-FY 2017E, as there are no capex plans in the pipeline. 100%
20.00
80%
16.00
Valuation 2% upside on CMP; upgrade to HOLD
12.00 60%
Our DCF based target price is at LKR 356 and after including the FY 2015E DPS of LKR 20, we
have arrived at a total return of LKR 376. Since the last review, the stock has lost ~6%, upgrad- 8.00 40%
ing our recommendation to HOLD with a 2% upside on CMP. On relative valuations, LLUB trades 4.00 20%
at a forward PER of 14.7x (FY 2015E EPS LKR 25.14) based on CMP. The manufacturing sector 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
PER stood at 20.4x as at 12.11.2015.
For analyst certification and other important disclosures, please refer to the Disclosure and Page 1
Disclaimer section at the end of this report.
Company Information Note
Year Ending 31st December 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
Chevron Lubricants Lanka PLC (LLUB) Summary Information
BRS EPS As Adjusted (LKR) 16.57 18.84 21.10 22.85 25.14 26.70 28.19
Company profile BRS EPS growth (%) 32.4% 13.7% 11.9% 8.3% 10.0% 6.2% 5.6%
P/E (x) 10.3 x 10.7 x 12.7 x 17.5 x 14.7 x 13.8 x 13.1 x
Chevron is in the business of importing, manu- Reported EPS adjusted for split (LKR) 16.67 18.88 21.10 22.89 na na na
Sector PE (x) 15.8x 9.9x 13.0X 22.1x na na na
facturing and marketing of lubricants, greases, P/E on reported EPS (x) 10.2 x 10.7 x 12.7 x 17.5 x na na na
brake fluid and specialty products. It is the mar- NAV per share (LKR) 26.32 34.45 40.33 43.33 41.40 46.10 50.29
P/BV (x) 6.5 x 5.9 x 6.6 x 9.2 x 8.9 x 8.0 x 7.3 x
ket leader with a ~52% market share in a very Sector PBV (x) 2.2x 1.6x 1.8x 2.7x na na na
competitive industry with 13 licensed players. It DPS (LKR) 9.00 11.00 15.00 20.00 20.00 22.00 24.00
Dividend yield (%) 5.3% 5.4% 5.6% 5.0% 5.4% 6.0% 6.5%
also exports finished goods to Maldives and FCFF (LKR 000) 1,364,308 2,846,205 1,587,596 1,740,841 2,255,039 3,077,039 3,404,603
Bangladesh, though on a relatively smaller scale. FCFE (LKR 000) 1,365,360 2,846,427 1,587,680 1,741,166 2,255,136 3,077,471 3,402,035
CFPS (LKR) 2.97 12.25 (0.27) (9.96) (1.21) 3.64 4.39
The company relocated its blending plant to
P/CFPS (x) 57.3 x 16.5 x nm nm (305.4 x) 101.3 x 83.9 x
Sapugaskande in November 2014 with an addi- Mkt price adjusted for splits 170.00 202.00 267.80 399.60 368.60 368.60 368.60
Weighted average shares (000) 120,000 120,000 120,000 120,000 120,000 120,000 120,000
tional capacity of ~20%.
Average mkt cap (LKR 000) 20,400,000 24,240,000 32,136,000 47,952,000 44,232,000 44,232,000 44,232,000
Enterprise value (LKR 000) 19,387,939 21,722,756 29,650,826 46,661,470 43,086,294 42,649,687 42,122,515
EV/Sales 1.8 x 1.8 x 2.6 x 4.1 x 3.8 x 3.5 x 3.3 x
EV/EBITDA 7.0 x 7.3 x 9.2 x 12.9 x 10.6 x 9.7 x 9.1 x
Revenue LKR 'mn % Growth (2011-17E) Income Statement (LKR 000)
5% Revenue 11,039,945 11,754,046 11,197,152 11,519,891 11,399,474 12,089,142 12,700,853
12,701
Gross profit 3,474,497 3,804,084 4,120,303 4,602,816 4,934,480 5,379,006 5,653,454
EBITDA recurring 2,760,084 2,956,746 3,220,484 3,613,771 4,073,714 4,398,134 4,612,384
6%
Depreciation and amortisation (47,307) (43,836) (46,234) (48,009) (128,441) (88,722) (99,007)
6% -5%
3% EBIT recurring 2,712,777 2,912,910 3,174,250 3,565,762 3,945,273 4,309,412 4,513,377
-1%
Interest income 61,507 34,638 279,044 91,810 145,274 109,856 152,495
11,040 Interest expense (1,461) (309) (117) (451) (134) (600) (600)
Exceptionals/non-recurrings 12,455 4,563 421 4,839 - - -
Tax expense (767,163) (845,630) (921,697) (952,800) (1,081,712) (1,215,134) (1,282,950)
Net income 1,988,162 2,261,263 2,531,480 2,741,995 3,016,526 3,203,535 3,382,322
Profit attributable to equity holders 1,988,162 2,261,263 2,531,480 2,741,995 3,016,526 3,203,535 3,382,322
Statement of Financial Position (LKR 000)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2017E Cash and cash equivalents 1,012,061 2,517,244 2,485,174 1,290,530 1,145,706 1,582,313 2,109,485
Inventories 1,870,032 2,132,118 1,928,704 1,746,241 2,011,310 2,251,494 2,240,924
Trade receivables 1,199,131 986,882 1,252,068 1,130,140 1,318,526 1,362,747 1,469,050
Revenue breakdown Fixed assets 193,113 215,813 1,296,651 2,243,616 2,175,851 2,208,020 2,236,021
Shortterm investments - - - - - - -
Total assets 4,353,919 5,947,508 7,052,472 6,476,801 6,729,611 7,499,374 8,155,077
Local sales Trade payables 301,439 897,497 1,059,802 652,962 893,916 947,998 1,020,866
8%
Export sales Interest bearing debt -short term - - - - - - -
FY 2014 6% Interest bearing debt -long term - - - - - - -
Total liabilities 1,195,773 1,813,195 2,212,451 1,277,590 1,761,238 1,967,467 2,120,848
Shareholders equity 3,158,146 4,134,313 4,840,021 5,199,210 4,968,373 5,531,907 6,034,229
Total equity 3,158,146 4,134,313 4,840,021 5,199,210 4,968,373 5,531,907 6,034,229
Net debt (cash) (1,012,061) (2,517,244) (2,485,174) (1,290,530) (1,145,706) (1,582,313) (2,109,485)
FY 2013
Total capital employed 3,158,146 4,134,313 4,840,021 5,199,210 4,968,373 5,531,907 6,034,229
92% Casf flow (LKR 000)
94% Cash flow from operations 1,384,049 2,913,609 2,715,618 2,735,614 2,315,786 3,197,499 3,534,180
Net working capital (656,249) 494,835 72,850 (120,785) (239,699) (246,905) (27,663)
Capital expenditure (20,793) (67,627) (1,128,106) (995,097) (60,843) (120,891) (127,009)
Free cash flow 1,363,256 2,845,982 1,587,512 1,740,517 2,254,943 3,076,607 3,407,171
Investing cash flows (8,139) (63,064) (1,127,685) (990,258) (60,611) (120,891) (127,009)
Equity capital - - - - - - -
Dividends paid (1,020,000) (1,380,000) (1,620,000) (2,940,000) (2,400,000) (2,640,000) (2,880,000)
EPS (LKR) Trend in EPS and DPS DPS (LKR) Net borrowings - - - - - - -
33.00 28.00 Other financing cash flows - - - - - - -
EPS DPS Net cash flow 355,910 1,470,545 (32,067) (1,194,644) (144,825) 436,607 527,171
28.00 24.00
Key ratios
Revenue growth (%) 16.6% 6.5% -4.7% 2.9% -1.0% 6.1% 5.1%
23.00 20.00
EBIT growth (%) 19.6% 7.4% 9.0% 12.3% 10.6% 9.2% 4.7%
18.00 16.00 Gross profit margin (%) 31.5% 32.4% 36.8% 40.0% 43.3% 44.5% 44.5%
EBITDA margin (%) 25.0% 25.2% 28.8% 31.4% 35.7% 36.4% 36.3%
13.00 12.00 EBIT margin (%) 24.6% 24.8% 28.3% 31.0% 34.6% 35.6% 35.5%
Net profit margin 18.0% 19.2% 22.6% 23.8% 26.5% 26.5% 26.6%
8.00 8.00 ROCE % 100.6% 79.9% 70.7% 71.0% 77.6% 82.1% 78.0%
ROE % 73.7% 62.0% 56.4% 54.6% 59.3% 61.0% 58.5%
3.00 4.00 Payout ratio (%) 54.3% 58.4% 71.1% 87.5% 79.6% 82.4% 85.1%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Debt/equity (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Net debt/equity (%) -32.0% -60.9% -51.3% -24.8% -23.1% -28.6% -35.0%
Gearing (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Page 2
Source: LLUB Annual Reports and BRS Research
BRS Equity Research
Q3 FY 15 Performance
Valuations assumptions
Based on a free cash flow valuation we have arrived at a target price of LKR 355.54 . Our valuations are based
on the following assumptions:
WACC 10%
Terminal growth rate - 3%
Risk free rate 8.9% (previous - 8.7%)
Beta - 0.47 (based on LLUB share price vs. ASPI movement)
Equity risk premium - 5%
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BRS Equity Research
2014 2013
Sales Market Sales Market
Company
Quantity Share (%) Quantity Share (%)
(KL) (KL)
Chevron Ceylon Limited 26,753 49.30 28,241 52.58
*2013 data
Source : PUCSL
70 70,000
Market share
60 60,000
50 50,000
40 40,000
30 30,000
20 20,000
10 10,000
0 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
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BRS Equity Research
Financial Analysis
Year Ending 31st December 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
Net turnover 11,039,945 11,754,046 11,197,152 11,519,891 11,399,474 12,089,142 12,700,853
YoY growth % 16.6% 6.5% -4.7% 2.9% -1.0% 6.1% 5.1%
Cost of Sales (7,565,448) (7,949,962) (7,076,850) (6,917,075) (6,464,994) (6,710,136) (7,047,398)
YoY growth % 17.7% 5.1% -11.0% -2.3% -6.5% 3.8% 5.0%
Gross Profit 3,474,497 3,804,084 4,120,303 4,602,816 4,934,480 5,379,006 5,653,454
YoY growth % 14.1% 9.5% 8.3% 11.7% 7.2% 9.0% 5.1%
Gross profit margin 31.5% 32.4% 36.8% 40.0% 43.3% 44.5% 44.5%
Other operating Income 31,176 12,294 7,061 13,140 11,555 8,000 8,800
Total SG & A expenses (780,441) (898,904) (952,694) (1,045,356) (1,000,762) (1,077,593) (1,148,878)
YoY growth % 0.1% 15.2% 6.0% 9.7% -4.3% 7.7% 6.6%
Total depreciation (47,307) (43,836) (46,234) (48,009) (128,441) (88,722) (99,007)
EBIT including non-recurring items 2,725,232 2,917,473 3,174,670 3,570,601 3,945,273 4,309,412 4,513,377
Non-recurring items 12,455 4,563 421 4,839 - - -
EBIT excluding non-recurring items 2,712,777 2,912,910 3,174,250 3,565,762 3,945,273 4,309,412 4,513,377
YoY growth % 19.6% 7.4% 9.0% 12.3% 10.6% 9.2% 4.7%
EBIT margin 24.6% 24.8% 28.3% 31.0% 34.6% 35.6% 35.5%
EBITDA excluding non-recurring items 2,760,084 2,956,746 3,220,484 3,613,771 4,073,714 4,398,134 4,612,384
YoY growth % 18.4% 7.1% 8.9% 12.2% 12.7% 8.0% 4.9%
EBITDA margin 25.0% 25.2% 28.8% 31.4% 35.7% 36.4% 36.3%
Finance Income / Cost 42,548 193,983 278,927 129,033 152,966 109,256 151,895
Recurring profit before tax 2,755,325 3,106,893 3,453,177 3,694,795 4,098,239 4,418,668 4,665,271
YoY growth % 18.1% 12.8% 11.1% 7.0% 10.9% 7.8% 5.6%
Income tax expense (767,163) (845,630) (921,697) (952,800) (1,081,712) (1,215,134) (1,282,950)
Profit after taxation 1,988,162 2,261,263 2,531,480 2,741,995 3,016,526 3,203,535 3,382,322
YoY growth % 32.4% 13.7% 11.9% 8.3% 10.0% 6.2% 5.6%
Earnings per share - unadjusted (1) 16.67 18.88 21.10 22.89 25.14 26.70 28.19
Earnings per share - BRS adjusted (2) 16.57 18.84 21.10 22.85 25.14 26.70 28.19
Note 1: Based on earnings as reported (unadjusted for non-recurring) share data adjusted for splits and super gains tax
Note 2: EPS adjusted for share split, consolidations and non recurring information
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BRS Equity Research
Financial Analysis
Current Assets
Inventories 1,870,032 2,132,118 1,928,704 1,746,241 2,011,310 2,251,494 2,240,924
Receivables and Prepayments 1,199,131 986,882 1,252,068 1,130,140 1,318,526 1,362,747 1,469,050
Cash and Cash Equivalents 1,012,061 2,517,244 2,485,174 1,290,530 1,145,706 1,582,313 2,109,485
4,081,224 5,636,245 5,665,946 4,166,911 4,475,542 5,196,554 5,819,459
Current Liabilities
Trade and Other payables 301,439 897,497 1,059,802 652,962 893,916 947,998 1,020,866
Current Tax 372,565 468,370 490,590 403,131 580,291 719,914 788,875
Dividends payable 420,000 360,000 540,000 - - - -
Bank Borrowings - - - - - - -
1,094,004 1,725,867 2,090,392 1,056,093 1,474,207 1,667,911 1,809,740
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BRS Equity Research
Financial Analysis
Investing Activities
Purchase of property, plant & equipment (20,793) (67,627) (1,128,106) (995,097) (60,843) (120,891) (127,009)
Proceeds from disposal of PPE 12,654 4,563 421 4,839 232 - -
Short term investments uplifted & maturity - - - - - - -
ST Investments made during the year - - - - - - -
Net cash used in investing activities (8,139) (63,064) (1,127,685) (990,258) (60,611) (120,891) (127,009)
Financing Activities
Short term loans obtained / (settled) to related parties - - - - - - -
Dividends paid (1,020,000) (1,380,000) (1,620,000) (2,940,000) (2,400,000) (2,640,000) (2,880,000)
Net Cash in financing activities (1,020,000) (1,380,000) (1,620,000) (2,940,000) (2,400,000) (2,640,000) (2,880,000)
Increase Decrease In Cash and Cash Equivalents 355,910 1,470,545 (32,067) (1,194,644) (144,825) 436,607 527,171
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BRS Equity Research
2 HSBC INTL NOM LTD-SSBT WASATCH FRONTIER EMERGING SMALL COUNTRIES FUND 6,300,185 5.25
3 Cigroup Global Markets Limited Agency Trading Prop Securies A/C 2,961,409 2.47
6 RBC Investor Services Bank- COELI SICAV I- FRONTIER MARKETS FUND 1,864,851 1.55
7 HSBC INTL NOM LTD-BP2S LUXEMBOURG-ABERDEEN GLOBAL FRONTIER MARKETS EQUITY FUND 1,830,800 1.53
8 HSBC Internaonal Nominees Ltd-BPSS Lux Aberdeen Global Asian Small companies fund 1,675,287 1.40
9 Caceis Bank Luxembourg S/A BARCA GLOBAL MASTER FUND LPOGIER 1,607,208 1.34
12 HSBC INTL NOMINEES LTD-BP2S LONDON- ABERDEEN ASIA SMALLER COMPANIES INVESTMENT TRUST 1,384,697 1.15
13 Nothern Trust CO S/A- Nothern Trust Fiduciary Services (Ireland) Ltd AS TRUSTEE TO BARING ASEAN FRO 1,272,128 1.06
14 Nothern Trust Global Services London S/A VERDIPAPIRONDET ODIN EMERGING MARKETS 1,256,947 1.05
19 CB NY S/A WASATCH FRONTIER EMERGING SMALL COUNTRIES CIT FUND 950,060 0.79
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BRS Equity Research
DISCLAIMER
Important Disclosures
This report was prepared by Strategic Research Limited for clients of Bartleet Religare Securities.
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Stock Ratings
Recommendation
Buy
More than 10%
Hold
Between 10% and 0
Sell
Less than 0%
Expected absolute returns are based on the share price at market close unless otherwise stated. Stock recommendations are based on absolute upside (downside)
and have a 12-month horizon. Our target price represents the fair value of the stock based upon the analysts discretion. We note that future price fluctuations
could lead to a temporary mismatch between upside/downside for a stock and our recommendation.
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