Investment Research — General Market Conditions

12 July 2010

Commodities Daily This is the last Commodities

Daily in July - next edition due
2 August

Commodities news
Today’s key points
 Overview – Commodities slightly down this morning on the back of minor gains on
Friday. EUR/USD drops below 1.26 after rising above 1.27 late last week. US equity  Q2 earnings: Alcoa
markets rose for a fourth straight day on Friday – ending a very strong week for risky
assets. The Q2 earnings reporting season begins with notably Alcoa, the largest US
aluminium producer, due to report today.

 Cross commodities - Chinese trade data released over the weekend showed a larger
trade surplus than expected, reflecting much stronger exports than anticipated (44% Commodities overview
y/y), but also slightly weaker imports (34% y/y). However, even as import growth
has slowed, June’s numbers should, in our view, not raise any significant concerns Contract Last price %, d/d
about the sustainability of growth in China, but rather support the case for further WTI, NYMEX 1. pos 75.7 0.4
CNY appreciation. Looking into the details for the different commodities on the Brent, ICE 1. pos 75.0 0.4
import side, it is notable that China’s demand for foreign aluminium and copper
Heating Oil, NYMEX 1. pos 202.0 0.8
alike continues to decline; not least, aluminim imports are now down almost 80%
Gasoline, NYMEX 1. pos 206.0 0.5
y/y. However, purchases of crude oil and soybeans continue to surprise on the
upside, both up more than 30% on the year. Aluminium, LME 3M 1995 0.3
Copper, LME 3M 6710 1.4
 Grains –The July WASDE report saw the US Department of agriculture lowering its
Lead, LME 3M 1830 0.1
projections of ending stocks of corn and raising its projections for wheat and soybean
production. However, the report was less bullish than analysts expected and the Nickel, LME 3M 19360 -0.2
figures on the whole weighed on the grains complex. Both CBOT corn and wheat Zinc, LME 3M 1867 0.6
lost a little on Friday and the Matif milling wheat contract is declining this morning. Steel, LME 3M 430 0.0
Hot Rol Coil, NYMEX 1. pos 600 -0.8
 China - Property prices declined marginally on both a monthly and an annual basis in
June. We regard this as a healthy - and necessary - correction rather than a property Gold, spot 1210 1.3
bubble bursting. This underlines that inflationary pressure in China is now easing. Silver, spot 18 1.5
Hence, the risk of aggressive monetary tightening in China now appears to be Wheat, CBOT 1. pos 521.3 -2.4
decreasing but we still expect Peoples bank of China to hike its leading interest rate
Corn, CBOT 1. pos 373.0 -1.2
late in Q3.
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Markets.

Chinese import of metals continue to weaken but oil and soybeans strong Commodities Research:

Latest One month ago m/m One year ago y/y Chief Analyst
Arne Lohmann Rasmussen
Copper (1000 tonnes) 328 397 -17% 477 -31%
+45 4521 8532
Aluminium (1000 tonnes) 75 94 -21% 353 -79% arr@danskebank.dk
Crude Petroleum Oil 22 18 25% 17 34%
Senior Analyst
Steel Products 1 1 8% 2 -10% Christin Tuxen
Soybeans 6 4 42% 5 32% +45 45137867
tux@danskebank.dk
Iron Ore & Concentrate 47 52 -9% 55 -15%
Note: all figures in 100,000 tons unless otherwise stated. Commodities Sales:

Source: Bloomberg, Danske Markets. Senior Dealer

Martin Vorgod
+45 4514 3286
mavo@danskebank.dk

Vice President
Fredrik Åberg
+45 4514 3285
fredrik.aberg@danskebank.dk

Bloomberg: DRFX <GO>

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Commodities Daily

Commodity-price movements

12.07.2010 Yesterday Month ago Year ago This year

Last price %, today Close %, d/d Price %, m/m Price %, y/y %, YTD
Energy (1. pos):
NYMEX WTI ($/bbl) 75.7 -0.5 76.1 0.9 73.8 2.6 59.9 26.4 -4.6
ICE Brent ($/bbl) 75.0 -0.5 75.4 1.0 74.3 0.9 60.5 24.0 -3.7
NYMEX Heating Oil ($/gallon) 202.0 -0.3 202.6 1.0 200.5 0.8 153.3 31.8 -4.6
NYMEX RBOB Gasoline ($/gallon) 206.0 -0.5 207.0 0.9 205.0 0.5 165.1 24.8 0.4
ICE Gasoil ($/ton) 644.0 0.0 644.3 0.6 639.8 0.7 483.8 33.1 1.3
ICE NWE Jet Fuel, CIF ($/ton) 697.1 -0.6 701.3 0.4 697.5 -0.1 550.2 26.7 -0.4
TTF NL Natural Gas (€/mwh) 21.2 0.1 21.1 1.1 19.0 11.2 9.7 118.0 64.5
Henry Hub Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) 4.4 0.1 4.4 0.1 4.8 -7.9 3.4 30.6 -20.9
Nordpool electricity (€/mwh) - 1.3 45.6 0.0 48.7 -5.3 - - -
Fuel oil, 1%, FOB NWE ($/ton) 449.5 0.3 448.0 - 446.5 3.8 301.3 53.8 81.3
Fuel oil, 3.5%, FOB ARA ($/ton) 419.0 0.5 417.0 - 433.0 3.7 227.0 97.8 98.2
API2 steam coal, CIF ARA ($/ton) 93.7 0.1 93.7 0.0 99.0 -5.4 66.5 41.0 13.9
ICE ECX Carbon Emission (€/tn) 14.7 1.7 14.4 -3.0 15.8 -7.0 14.3 2.4 16.9

Base metals:
Aluminium, LME 3M, $/ton 1995 -0.4 2004 0.8 1945 2.6 1572 26.9 -10.5
Copper, LME 3M, $/ton 6710 -0.7 6760 2.2 6479 3.6 4858 38.1 -9.0
Lead, LME 3M, $/ton 1830 -0.8 1845 0.9 1670 9.6 1596 14.7 -24.8
Nickel, LME 3M, $/ton 19360 -0.7 19500 0.5 19545 -0.9 14490 33.6 4.5
Zinc, LME 3M, $/ton 1867 -1.9 1904 2.6 1740 7.3 1493 25.1 -27.1
Steel, LME 3M, $/ton 430 1.2 425 -1.2 440 -2.3 345 24.6 5.0
Hot Rolled Coil, NYMEX, 1. pos, $/ton 600 -0.8 605 0.0 665 -9.8 450 33.3 9.1

Precious Metals (spot, $/t oz.):

Gold 1210 -0.1 1211 1.4 1228.4 -1.5 912.3 32.6 10.1
Silver 18 0.0 18 1.6 18.3 -1.1 12.6 43.1 6.8

Agriculturals (1. pos):

CBOT Wheat ($/bu.) 521.3 -0.4 523.5 -2.0 440.8 18.3 491.8 6.0 -3.7
Matif Mill Wheat (€/ton) 150.0 -5.1 158.0 3.8 128.0 -12.1 136.0 -17.3 -14.3
CBOT Corn ($/bu.) 373.0 -0.6 375.3 -0.6 349.5 6.7 345.5 8.0 -10.0
CBOT Soybeans ($/bu.) 1023.0 -0.2 1025.5 1.3 946.3 8.1 1128.3 -9.3 -1.6
NYBOT Sugar ($/lb.) 16.6 -2.8 17.1 0.2 15.2 9.6 17.1 -2.9 -38.4

Commodity indices (total return):

DJ-UBS 255 0.5 254 0.4 251 1.5 229 11.5 -8.7
S&P GSCI 4065 0.6 4042 1.2 4009 1.4 3798 7.0 -10.3
Reuters CRB 260 0.4 259 0.5 256 1.8 233 11.7 -8.0
Rogers commodity index 3004 0.5 2990 1.0 2895 3.8 2700 11.2 -8.3
DJ-AIG 127 0.5 126 0.4 125 1.5 114 11.4 -8.8
S&P GSCI Energy 902 0.8 895 1.4 902 0.1 858 5.2 -11.2
S&P GSCI Industrial Metals 1504 1.5 1481 0.1 1426 5.5 1188 26.6 -11.9
S&P GSCI Precious Metals 1561 1.1 1544 -0.3 1586 -1.5 1185 31.8 9.7
S&P GSCI Agriculture 533 -0.7 536 1.5 480 10.9 540 -1.4 -13.5
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Markets.

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Commodities Daily

Energy
Oil prices US crude oil stocks, EIA

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

WTI (NYMEX) forward curve Brent (ICE) curve

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

Jet fuel and gasoil crack spreads Gasoline crack spread, RBOB, NYMEX 1. pos

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

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Heating oil crack spread, NYMEX 1. pos Fuel oil, NWE, crack spreads

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

CO2 emission rights, ICE 1. pos Electricity, Nordpool quarterly, 1. pos

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

Natural gas, 1. pos API2 coal, 1. pos

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

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Metals
Aluminium Aluminium forward curve

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

Copper Copper forward curve

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

Nickel Nickel forward curve

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

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Zinc Zinc forward curve

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

Copper SHFE-LME spread Steel

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

Gold and silver Gold forward curve

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

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Grains
Wheat Milling wheat forward curve, NYSE LIffe

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

Corn, CBOT 1. pos Corn forward curve, CBOT

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

Soybeans, CBOT 1. pos Soybeans forward curve, CBOT

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

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Commodities Daily

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