Nonlinear Dynamics, Psychology, and Life Sciences, Vol. 9, No. 1, January, 2005.

2005 Society for Chaos Theory in Psychology & Life Sciences.

Unnatural Selection: Talent Identification and

Development in Sport

Angela Abbott1, University of Edinburgh, UK

Chris Button, University of Otago, New Zealand
Gert-Jan Pepping, University of Edinburgh, UK
Dave Collins, University of Edinburgh, UK

Abstract. The early identification of talented individuals has become

increasingly important across many performance domains. Current
talent identification (TI) schemes in sport typically select on the basis of
discrete, unidimensional measures at unstable periods in the athletes
development. In this article, the concept of talent is revised as a complex,
dynamical system in which future behaviors emerge from an interaction
of key performance determinants such as psychological behaviors, motor
abilities, and physical characteristics. Key nonlinear dynamics concepts
are related to TI approaches such as sensitivity to initial conditions,
transitions, and exponential behavioral distributions. It is concluded that
many TI models place an overemphasis on early identification rather
than the development of potentially talented performers. A generic model
of talent identification and development is proposed that addresses these
issues and provides direction for future research.

Key Words: talent, sports, personnel selection, development, self-

organization.

Talent identification (TI) has undoubtedly become big business.

Across a range of different fields including sport, art, business and
education, researchers are continually attempting to find effective
methods to identify the best performers for the future. These fields are
united in many societies around the world by high levels of competition

1
Correspondence should be addressed to: Dr. Chris Button, Human
Performance Centre, School of Physical Education, University of Otago, P. O.
Box 56, Dunedin, New Zealand. E-mail: cbutton@pooka.otago.ac.nz.
61
62 NDPLS, 9(1), Abbott et al.
to achieve success against limited financial resources. If an organization
(e.g., a business or a National Governing Body) is to stay ahead of the
game, recruiting and developing high-fliers before they are snatched up
by other competitors is extremely important. For example, many
successful companies employ a range of different psychometric and
behavioral profiling instruments, such as IQ tests for intelligence, when
recruiting or promoting personnel (Guion, 1998). The rationale for using
such procedures is presumably that future talent can be predicted on the
basis of outstanding performance in key transferable skills. Therefore,
the implementation of an effective TI system seems highly appealing for
a wide range of organizations and performance domains.
In this article, we focus on TI procedures in sport and show that
finding the most effective TI method is a complex problem. We argue
that many current TI models around the world are underpinned by an
inappropriate conception of talent and are therefore unlikely to be as
effective as they could be (see also Abbott & Collins, 2002, 2004). The
problem is often manifested in a reliance on discrete, genetically driven,
performance measures that place a large emphasis on the (unnatural)
selection of talented individuals rather than the development and
monitoring of potential. Using ideas borrowed from the sciences of
complexity and nonlinear dynamical systems, we will describe some
fundamental principles that have implications, not only for TI in sport,
but to a whole range of performance domains, such as business and the
arts (Gould, 2002; Loehr & Schwartz, 2001; Lubinski & Benbow, 2000;
Simonton, 1999). Such concepts provide a more accurate description of
the important factors influencing talent and therefore a better ability to
predict future star performers. Finally, a theoretically driven,
multidisciplinary model of TI and development will be described which
is currently being piloted in Scotland.

TALENT IDENTIFICATION: A COMPLEX PROBLEM

The rising importance of TI in sport is reflected by the glut of

related articles in the current coaching and sport science literature (e.g., a
special edition of the Journal of Sports Sciences was devoted to TI
topics, see Volume 18, Issue 9, 2000; Durand-Bush & Salmela, 2001). TI
initiatives in sport have typically looked to identify the talented at as
early an age as possible in order to provide the 10 years of
developmental opportunities that research has suggested is required to
excel (Ericsson, Krampe, & Tesch-Romer, 1993; Starkes, 2000). To
enable this early identification of talent, many TI processes measure and
 NDPLS, 9(1), Talent Identification 63
select young athletes based on genetically driven performance
determinants (e.g., height for basketball). As an example, successful
sporting nations such as Australia (Talent Search initiative, Hoare, 1998),
Germany and the Soviet Union select talented performers on the basis
of physical and performance measures, which are believed to be
correlated with excellence in sport. However, a recent review of
traditional TI processes in sport and their theoretical underpinning
(Abbott & Collins, 2002) highlighted that potentially talented athletes are
often overlooked due to an inappropriate conceptualization of talent.
At least five main problems arise from identifying and
eliminating potential athletes on physical and performance measures:
(a) It is difficult, if not impossible, to predict the mature value of a
genetically driven variable due to non-linear processes of development
(Abbott & Collins, 2002; Aitken & Jenkins, 1998; Simmons & Paull,
2001). (b) Performance is constrained by a range of factors and not all of
these are genetically driven (e.g., Simonton, 1999, 2001). (c) The focus
has been on discrete performance measures that only reveal limited
information about a persons adaptability and development potential
(Morris, 2000). (d) Selection might be based upon unstable
characteristics during important transitional periods in the athletes
career (Davids, Lees & Burwitz, 2000; Helsen, Hodges, van Winckel &
Starkes, 2000). (e) As TI processes should be focused on the future
performance capacity of individuals, not enough emphasis is given to
factors that underpin successful development towards ones potential
(Kunst & Florescu, 1971; Simonton, 1999).
As we describe in the following sections, the selection of
individuals on the basis of physical or performance characteristics such
as strength or possession of a certain technique is based upon a
microscopic (small-scale) description of talent. In fact, our understanding
of skilled motor performance has dramatically changed due to the recent
fusion of sport science with concepts from the dynamical systems
perspective and chaos theory (Davids, Button & Bennett, 1999, in press).
The application of dynamical systems theory to a diverse range of
complex systems (such as global weather patterns, financial stock
exchanges and neural functioning in the brain) provides new methods
through which complex interactions and seemingly unpredictable
patterns can be modeled at a macroscopic level (Freeman, 1999; Kelso,
1995; Stewart, 1995; Wolfram, 2002). A macroscopic approach can help
us to understand that talented performers develop a range of different
behavioral qualities in a nonlinear fashion in order to eventually produce
consistently effective movement patterns. Accordingly, recognition of
64 NDPLS, 9(1), Abbott et al.
how such factors evolve is necessary to aid predictions concerning long-
term behavioral patterns of a talented individual. Indeed, TI processes
that are based upon only the summation of a few physical variables
should be considered in neo-darwinian terms as unnatural selection!

Fig. 1. Relative instability of height within cohorts of Scottish boys and

girls (age 11 to 12). Data taken from Abbott and Collins (2002).
 NDPLS, 9(1), Talent Identification 65

Predicting the Mature Value of a

Genetically Driven Variable
The mature value of a genetically driven variable cannot
necessarily be predicted from an immature value1. For example, height is
often considered to be advantageous to performance in a range of sports
(e.g., high-jump, volleyball; however, see the later Case Study).
Although height is predominantly genetically determined, recent research
conducted by Abbott and Collins (2002) highlighted large instability
within cohorts of both boys and girls from age 11 to 12 (see Fig. 1),
which coincidentally is at the age that many TI processes are conducted.
Figure 1 exemplifies the fact that children typically experience several
sudden maturational changes as they progress through puberty. Therefore
if, for example, height or limb length were major determinants within a
particular sport (and unfortunately little or no research underpins the
selection of such key performance determinants), the most physically
talented could not be identified until post puberty when values become
largely stable within individuals. The delay of TI processes until post
puberty (16+ years) would undoubtedly be resisted as it opposes the
current drive to identify the best children early in order to optimally
support their development. However, identifying talented and
eliminating non-talented adolescents on unstable performance
determinants is tantamount to identifying precocious talent based purely
on performance, which research has shown to be significantly influenced
by the physical maturity of the child (Abbott & Collins, 2002, Blanskby,
Bloomfield, Ponchard, & Ackland, 1990).
The important point to make is that long-term predictions cannot
be made solely on the basis of a few physical characteristics due to their
unstable and nonlinear development over time. As the data in Fig. 1
demonstrates, the height of children from the ages of 11-12 can vary
considerably within a small period of time and therefore such variables
are unreliable determinants of future values. Inter-individual variance is
also influenced by a range of important environmental characteristics
such as diet and exercise levels (Dollman, Olds, Norton & Stuart, 1999;
Parizkova, 1977). Hence, an awareness of the dynamic, complex nature
of development suggests that such long-term predictions are only, at best,
66 NDPLS, 9(1), Abbott et al.
a probabilistic estimate concerning how an athletes physique will
change.
The issue concerning whether it is possible to predict long-term
system behavior (such as the maturational trends of an athlete) given
information about current variables, has intrigued dynamical systems
theorists for some time. For example, Kauffman (1995) points out that,
any small change in a chaotic system can, and typically does, have large
and amplifying effects. Thus this sensitivity implies that the detailed
initial conditionwould have to be known to infinite precision to predict
the result (p. 17). Whilst this message suggests a rather bleak outlook
for those wishing to predict future characteristics or behaviors of an
athlete, i.e., that accurate long-term predictions are impossible, an
important distinction must be made. Human performers possess a critical
quality (to a greater extent than other chaotic systems) in their ability to
display intentional, goal-directed behavior. Humans can be seen as
deterministic organisms, in that they have the capacity to influence
strongly their own future through decision-making processes based on
their goals and desires (Kugler, Shaw, Vincente, & Kinsella-Shaw,
1990). Therefore, individuals with sufficient drive and determination are
more likely to overcome barriers and physical shortcomings in order to
be successful in the future than those who do not possess such qualities.
To illustrate this concept, consider one of many possible
anecdotal examples from sport. Pietro Mennea held the 200m-world
record for 17 years from 1979 to 1996. However, as a youth he was
given little hope of athletic achievement since it was believed that he did
not have the required physique. In a recent interview Pietro Mennea
stated, When I took up athletics almost all the coaches doubted that I
could ever achieve any significant results. I always used that as a
stimulus to prove them wrong and become a success. And I did. (Birri,
2000). Apparently, dedication, application, and technique development
were the key factors in his outstanding success. It is well known that
among many athletes, physical shortcomings in one area may also be
compensated for by strengths in other areas. Therefore, through unique
combinations of physical, mental and behavioral characteristics, talented
athletes can exploit their strengths to achieve their goals. In summary,
whilst certain physical characteristics may be strongly related to high-
level performance in sport, these characteristics can not be used to
identify future talent due to their unstable, nonlinear development and
 NDPLS, 9(1), Talent Identification 67
the ability of athletes to compensate for physical disadvantages in a
variety of ways.

Performance is Constrained by a Range of Variables and

Not All of These are Genetically Driven
The fundamental concept of self-organization suggests that the
behavior of a complex system is assembled in an emergent fashion
depending on the situational constraints that surround it (Kelso, 1995;
Muchisky, Gershkoff-Cole, Cole, & Thelen, 1996). It is this character-
istic that allows biological organisms to adapt behaviorally to their
environment. Similarly, the various constraints that contribute to an
athletes behavior interact in a nested, discontinuous fashion meaning
that performance cannot be understood (or predicted) when each are
considered in isolation. Despite this multicausal description of athletic
performance, current TI processes are mainly unidimensional in nature
and focus on physical factors that are considered to be primarily under
genetic control (Abbott, Collins, Martindale & Sowerby, 2002;
Simonton, 1999, 2001). The limitation of TI models, where no
consideration is given to many key performance determinants due to
their developmental, and therefore non-predictable, nature, is apparent.
Therefore, there is a need to re-conceptualize talent as a multi-
dimensional construct and acknowledge that many of the key
performance determinants in sport can be developed with the appropriate
training opportunities. Guion (1998) recognized this need in relation to
selection procedures for business, by suggesting that performance is
often complex, attributable to multiple causes of the workers; it is
likely that more than one kind of ability must be measured if the criterion
is to be predicted in all of its complexity (p.15).
In a recent paper, Simonton (1999) proposed a mathematical
equation to model the potential components that contribute to a dynamic
concept of talent in a multiplicative fashion. Whilst Simontons (1999)
model was intended to characterize talent development across a range of
performance domains (e.g., science, sport and the arts) it begins to
address some of the concerns we are raising with unidimensional and
genetically driven variables dominating many current TI models.
Simonton (1999) argued that a number of weighted components must be
considered within each talent domain, such as genetically driven traits as
well as environmentally-influenced, developmental factors. Consequent-
ly the equation is not comprised of static, independent performance-
based measures but rather, of factors that interact and change as a
68 NDPLS, 9(1), Abbott et al.
function of time thereby contributing to a range of possible
developmental trajectories in Eq. 1:
k
Pi(t)* = Cij (t)Wj (1)
j=1
where Pi(t) is potential talent at time t for the ith individual, Cij is the
individuals score on component j (i = 1, 2, 3, N) and wj is the weight
given to the jth component. The symbol indicates that each
contributing component (or performance determinant) is multiplied
together reflecting the exponential and nonlinear nature that a change in
each variable can have on predicted talent (Simonton, 1999, p. 443). At
this time, such a model would need considerable development before it
can be used for simulations of TI in sport (e.g., to select key talent
determinants and the individual exponents to be attached to each).
In fact the use of nonlinear mathematical modeling to depict
probabilistic distributions of human behavior has proved successful in a
wide range of applications, including population growth (May, 1974),
neural assemblies (Meyer-Lindenberg, Ziemann, Hajak, Cohen, &
Berman, 2002), and even in plotting the behavioral patterns of criminals
(Walters, 2002). Perhaps the richest body of evidence can be found in the
motor development literature (for a review see Thelen & Smith, 1994).
For example, Wimmers, Savelsbergh, Beek and Hopkins (2001) have
produced data from a longitudinal study indicating the discontinuous
jump in infant behavior from reaching without grasping being
predominant, to a state in which reaching with grasping is predominant.
This behavioral characteristic, known in dynamical terms as a
bifurcation, is common in dynamical systems which have many tunable
parameters and hence could evolve along several different potential
trajectories (a classic example is the Hnon map, see Kelso, 1995).
Simontons (1999) model predicts that exceptional behavior could
develop in an exponential fashion as a function of many, more specific
parameters in a similar fashion to many other nonlinear dynamical
events, such as the escalation of a serial criminals rate of offences. In
sport, these parameters are likely to include anthropometric variables
(such as height and muscle-fiber ratio), psychological behaviors (such as
commitment and self-evaluation) and perceptual-motor characteristics
(such as agility and hand-eye coordination). It is interesting to note that
several of these variables possess qualities that are transferable across
situations and, possibly, different sports. Longitudinal research plotting
the development of a group of talented athletes is now necessary to
 NDPLS, 9(1), Talent Identification 69
examine the nonlinear distribution characteristics that emerge over time
as predicted within Simontons (1999) approach.
The argument concerning the extent to which genetic
information can determine future performance has raged for some time
(see an interesting discussion on the nature-nurture debate: SportScience
web-based journal, 2001). As geneticists now agree, the transmission of
genetic information between generations always contains some errors
(e.g., Jones, 1999) and therefore genes cannot work in a totally
deterministic fashion. In essence, the presence of the ideal genetic
material does not necessarily represent a blueprint for success in sport
(which may be a shame for Andre Agassi and Steffi Grafs children!).
Furthermore, as Simontons (1999) model indicates, talented
performance results from the interaction of genetic factors and a
conducive practice environment rather than simply on the basis of one of
these factors (see also Helsen et al., 2000). To summarize, current TI
processes that typically limit themselves to testing individuals on
unidimensional, genetically driven factors are simplistic and therefore
likely to eliminate many potentially talented individuals.

Discrete Performance Characteristics are

Poor Predictors of Talent
As well as basing selection on physique, TI initiatives in sports
have also based the identification of the talented on a range of discrete
outcome based variables thought to underpin success (Davids, Lees &
Burwitz, 2000). For example, the Australian Talent Search program, in
identifying the talented in rowing, considers the performance of
children on the basketball throw, sprint and shuttle run tasks. Such snap-
shot performance variables however fail to capture the finely-tuned,
continuous co-ordination processes that elite athletes exploit to satisfy
task demands. As an example, a photograph of an elite batter in baseball
may not set him apart from a lesser player, whereas detailed analysis of
digital video is much more likely to reveal why he is so successful. The
point to be made here is that more sensitive measures of ability (such as
phase-plane plots and expectancy charts) are needed to provide a better
understanding of the processes underpinning skilful performance
(Button, Davids & Schllhorn, in press; Guion, 1998). Another important
quality that is often ignored by discrete measures is the ability of an
athlete to adapt performance to suit different situations and
environments. In fact, the subtle adaptation (or transfer) of coordination
patterns is arguably what enables elite sports people such as Tiger
70 NDPLS, 9(1), Abbott et al.
Woods (golf) and David Beckham (soccer) to maintain very high levels
of performance consistency over the course of several playing seasons.
Whilst discrete performance variables may be helpful in
signposting potential athletes during development, we should not be
fooled into believing that they can distinguish future performers. The
study of complex systems at a microscopic level reveals seemingly
random variation amongst system parts (e.g., performance characteristics
of a javelin thrower during a practice session). These random variations
in behavior may not be under the athletes direct control but rather are
the result of the different task, environmental and organismic constraints
that interact in that situation (Newell, 1996). Instead, the long-term
behavior of complex systems is better understood by pattern formation at
a macroscopic level of analysis (e.g., seasonal variations in the javelin
throwers performance; Schllhorn, & Bauer, 1998). Consequently, the
key problem is not so much in identifying the best performer at any one
time but instead identifying over time which factors may be limiting
talent development. If an individual does not currently display a desired
behavior, this may be because an important factor (e.g., self-confidence)
is absent or because it will not develop or emerge until later. Applying
dynamical systems concepts within the motor development literature,
Thelen (1995) highlights how certain behaviors wait in the wings and
only emerge when the supporting subsystems and processes are ready.
The lack of a characteristic, such as mental focus, which may take
several years to fully develop (Gould, Dieffenbach & Moffett, 2002) may
hinder the identification of young and otherwise very talented athletes.
Consequently, the comparative delay of one component may act as a
rate limiter, preventing the co-operative self-organization of the other
components, likewise a small retuning of one component can often lead
to an unexpected, nonlinear change in development.
Due to this epigenetic process, the likelihood of identifying a
talented athlete of the future increases as a function of time. In other
words, the number (and accuracy) of potentially talented individuals
identified will increase with the age of the athlete. Clearly therefore, the
earlier a TI procedure is employed, the more potentially talented
individuals will be eliminated. Further, not only may the composition of
a given talent change as a person ages, but the optimal talent domain may
change as well (Simonton, 1999, p. 445). Morris (2000) pointed out that
many cross-sectional studies identifying performance related
characteristics exist in sport but that they are largely descriptive, and
consequently argued for more longitudinal research. Hence, the dynamic
evolution of talent seems to suggest that the focus of TI models in sport
 NDPLS, 9(1), Talent Identification 71
and probably other performance domains should shift from early
identification towards developmental aspects.

Case Study:
Comparing Traditional and Dynamic IT Approaches
To illustrate some of the TI issues that have been discussed so
far, we can consider hypothetical data from three budding gymnasts
(Arnold, Lorenz, and Nash). We have measured three components of
gymnastic performance that may help to distinguish which athlete is
most talented. Looking at Fig. 2, consider which of our gymnasts you
think would have been identified by traditional TI models that select on
the basis of physical or performance determinants? (n.b., Bear in mind
that in gymnastics, it is generally considered a disadvantage to be tall as
shorter people have a lower center of gravity and can generate angular
momentum quickly.)
Times up! It is probable that you chose Nash as he was the
shortest gymnast of the three and did comparatively well on the other
two components (commitment and agility). However, the concerns that
we have raised in this article thus far also apply here. At present, the
component that receives most emphasis is a physical factor (height), but
the inclusion of psycho-behavioral and psychomotor characteristics
provides a more holistic description of talent. Even if you acknowledged
this fact and added the contributions of the three components to provide a
total score of talent, this still does not provide us with an understanding
of the interaction of these factors over time. In Fig. 3, each factor is
monitored over time depicting the changes in stability associated with
each individual performer. Also, rather than simply adding the mature
values of each component, consider the multiplicative effect that each
might have on talent and how the history of each factor will be of
importance.
Which gymnast would you select now? It is possible that instead
of Nash, you chose Arnold as his values for height, commitment, and
agility were favorable at the final re-test. Alternatively it might have
been interesting to consider Lorenz, the lack of stability in his
components may indicate the fact that he is progressing through a
transitional period. Either way, the important message is that unidimen-
sional, discrete measures of performance related variables will be less
effective than a nonlinear dynamics approach to TI.
A real-life example recently emerged in the form of the Russian
artistic gymnast Svetlana Khorkina who was originally thought to be too
72 NDPLS, 9(1), Abbott et al.
tall to compete at the elite level and was advised to take up rhythmic
gymnastics instead. However, Khorkina insisted on pursuing the sport
she loved most and excelled despite her height disadvantage (she is a
multiple world champion winner across various gymnastic disciplines).
In fact, she turned her added stature to an advantage by producing slower
and more graceful long, levered movements. This example highlights the
limitations of basing selection on just a few discrete measures of ideal
performance.

Possible Components of Talent for Gymnastics

High

Height

Commitment

Agility

Low

Arnold Nash Lorenz

Fig. 2. Hypothetical description of possible performance determinants

amongst gymnasts: Three possible components of talent measured for
three different performers (height, agility and commitment).

Selection During Transitional Periods of Development

As we have suggested, TI in sport is occurring amongst
increasingly younger performers. Whilst we have already discussed the
dangers of using non-mature physical variables for selection, another
concern is the timing of such procedures. Elite athletes make several
transitions in their careers in order to progress to the highest standards.
For example, individuals often begin to specialize and achieve mastery
within their chosen sport as a consequence of factors such as technical
coaching and increased competitive standards. As the performer makes
 NDPLS, 9(1), Talent Identification 73

Fig. 3. Changes in height for each gymnast over time, c) Changes in

commitment for each gymnast over time, d) Changes in agility for each
gymnast over time.
74 NDPLS, 9(1), Abbott et al.

such transitions, many aspects of their performance become unstable. In

dynamical systems terms, such unstable behavioral characteristics have
been called critical fluctuations, which are in fact necessary to move
the system from a previously stable state into a new more effective state.
As an example, evidence from bimanual coordination tasks has revealed
that, prior to transitions between stable states, the relative phasing
between limbs typically exhibits critical fluctuations (Schner, Haken &
Kelso, 1987). This behavioral feature provides theorists and practitioners
with a way of predicting when transitions between one coordination
pattern and another are about to occur. Likewise, at a macroscopic level,
by plotting the stability of a relevant performance variable, one should
see increased within-individual variability prior to a transition followed
by decreased within-individual variability as the movement system
settles into a new stable state. Mathematical modeling of other complex
systems in nature reveals that global performance trends possess similar
characteristics (Kauffman, 1995).
Therefore, the ability of a developing athlete to cope with these
unstable periods in their development is key to a successful transition to
the next stage of development. Research has demonstrated that the
application of psychological behaviors (e.g., effective performance
evaluation, goal setting and reinforcement) is crucial to this development
process and consequently underpins the potential of an individual to
become a successful and consistent elite performer (see Abbott et al.,
2002). With respect to the mechanisms of development processes,
Granott, Fischer & Parziale (2002) refer to a dynamical systems concept
known as bridging, whereby the performer creates partially defined
attractor shells that mark future skills to be constructed at higher
knowledge levels (see Ollis, 2002). In effect, athletes use psycho-
behaviors as transition mechanisms that can guide them into more
effective, stable levels of performance. For example, the ability to
produce consistently world-class performances is often viewed as the
mark of a true champion. However, national standard athletes may
struggle to progress to the world class level if they do not possess the
will to train to a sufficient high intensity (out of their comfort zone) and
deal with the associated instability in their performance. Interestingly,
Kreiner-Phillips and Orlick (1993) found that, out of 17 athletes who had
won major international titles in a range of sports, only seven continued
to maintain their level of performance. The remaining athletes either
experienced prolonged performance slumps (n=6) or were never able to
reproduce comparative performances (n=4). Kreiner-Phillips and Orlick
 NDPLS, 9(1), Talent Identification 75
reported that only psychological factors were able to distinguish between
consistent performers, those who experienced prolonged performance
slumps, and those who failed to reproduce comparative performances.
Consequently, any TI processes should promote and monitor athletes (at
a macroscopic level) on these key psycho-behaviors.

Recognizing and Exploiting the Capacity to Develop

The rationale for adopting TI processes should be that they
enable scarce resources to be targeted to facilitate the development of the
talented. Therefore, a key determinant of potential must be the capacity
to develop if provided with appropriate developmental experiences and
support (Kunst & Florescu, 1971). The majority of past and current TI
processes identify solely on the basis of variables perceived to impact
performance at that particular moment, with little consideration of the
range of constraints that demonstrate the individuals potential to
develop. Within sport, such processes are likely to eliminate many late
maturing children from strength sports (e.g., rugby) and early maturing
children in agility sports (e.g., diving) and may negatively impact
physical activity levels of those deselected. As an example, Helsen,
Starkes, and Van Winckel (1998) report that players born later in the
selection year tended to drop out of football as early as 12 years of age.
Clearly, to avoid prematurely eliminating talented children who are
currently not performing, it is essential to distinguish between variables
that influence performance and those that influence development.
Psycho-behaviors and psychomotor experiences have been highlighted as
key parameters during a sports persons development (Blanskby, 1980;
Kunst & Florescu, 1971). Interestingly, the same psycho-behaviors and
psychomotor factors underpin success across sports, a crucial factor since
domain change (i.e. starting in one sport but eventually excelling at
another) has been identified as an important experience of elite
performers in British sport (Moore, Collins, Burwitz, & Jess, 1998).
Unfortunately, the current trend of encouraging sport specific
involvement at an earlier age to ensure the talented get appropriate
developmental opportunities (e.g., mini-rugby), is likely to prohibit the
ability to transfer between sports and could further restrict the number of
athletes that develop into successful senior international performers. The
problem is that if children are not encouraged to experience and practice
a range of different motor skills at a young age, this may prevent them
from capitalizing on individual strengths or transferring these skills when
specializing at later stages. Consequently, practice in a range of different
76 NDPLS, 9(1), Abbott et al.
physical activities is advisable, particularly at an early age, as it helps to
improve generalizable coordination skills such as postural control and
timing. Furthermore, activities that promote the application of a range of
tactical solutions in cognitively demanding situations have been shown
to enhance skill retention and transfer (Turner & Martinek, 1999).
Specialization at too young an age in sport (and education?) will impede
such important developmental processes.
Case Study: Make or Break,
Examples from Sport of Nonlinear Behavioral Transitions
In sport, there are numerous examples of athletes needing to
make (nonlinear) transitions from one performance plateau to another to
further their development. In the following brief examples, we can see
that perturbations to stable states are often brought about by a change in
sport or mental approach.
Basketball: John Amaechi, forward/center for the Utah Jazz is
the only citizen of Great Britain currently playing in America's National
Basketball Association (2003 season). His first love was Rugby and it
was only a chance outing at the age of 16 at the local basketball court
that enticed Amaechi to give basketball a try.
Athletics: Linford Christie was involved in athletics as a youth.
However, until the age of 16, this involvement lacked commitment. The
turning point appears to have been in the summer of 1985 (age 25) when
his coach Ron Roddan and Andy Norman, the promotions officer for
British Athletics, sent letters to him saying, in effect, use your talent or
leave athletics. That lit a fire, and the next year Christie lowered his 100-
meter best from 10.42 to 10.04 and went on to claim his first major title.
In 1992, he became the Olympics 100m title holder.
Ballet: At the age of 14, Ryan Nye was on track to play
cornerback or linebacker one day for the Waterville Senior High School
football team when he took up ballet. At 14 he was a late starter and had
to reshape his body before he could master the many movements and the
extraordinary extension demanded of a quality ballet dancer. By the age
of 15, he was playing lead roles in the Bossov Ballet.

The Dynamic Nature of TiD: A Revised Concept of Talent

We shall now discuss a revised conception of talent based on the
concepts and philosophy discussed thus far. A critical message is that
talent development (TD) processes must be considered alongside TI
initiatives to enhance the likelihood that future stars can emerge from
 NDPLS, 9(1), Talent Identification 77
such schemes. Due to the range of dynamical subcomponents of talent
discussed earlier, it is likely that the identification and development
processes that an athlete experiences share an important reciprocal
relationship. In other words, effective identification may be aided by
effective development processes and vice versa. Therefore, contrary to
many existing models, we argue that TI and TD should be considered as
combined processes that emphasize direction and development, instead
of the current practice of identification and elimination, thus TiD. The
increased humanism of this approach may also do much to close the
split between the educational and the sporting community over the ethics
of elitist TI. To ensure an appropriate emphasis of pertinent factors, the
distinction between determinants of performance and determinants of
potential need to be acknowledged. Recognition of this distinction should
lead to greater emphasis on psycho-behaviors within TiD processes and
less emphasis, at least initially, on physique and performance. Further,
TiD processes need to measure and direct the most pertinent factors for
development through formative as opposed to summative testing.
Finally, one must be aware that a number of different developmental
trajectories toward elite performance are possible. Due to the complex
nature of talent development, predictions concerning future behaviors
should be acknowledged in dynamical language as fuzzy and
probabilistic (in terms of the sensitivity and accuracy of TiD
respectively). For clarity, the model will be developed piece by piece
over the following sub-sections. Whilst it is beyond the scope of this
paper to provide a detailed explanation of how the model can be
employed in practice, the role of psychology in actualizing an
individuals potential is highlighted.

Performance Dispositions
We propose a TiD approach (Abbott et al., 2002; Abbott &
Collins, 2004) that reflects both performance dispositions and the
capacity of an individual to develop (Simonton, 1999; Ziegler & Perleth,
1997, as cited in Ziegler & Heller, 2000). Our viewpoint adopts an
interdisciplinary perspective on the contribution of physical, motor and
psychological dispositions to sporting talent. Initially at least, TiD
models should primarily be concerned with the potential an individual
has to develop within sport. As psycho-behaviors characterize the means
by which an individual interacts with the environment, and therefore the
extent that they make the most of the opportunities that they are given,
our model advocates considerable emphasis should initially be on these
78 NDPLS, 9(1), Abbott et al.
key developmental attributes. In other words, psycho-behaviors are seen
as key tools in positively facilitating the interaction of an individual with
their environment and enabling successful negotiation of a path to
excellence (or fulfilling ones potential!) (Freeman, 2000). Of course, the
model also recognizes that key psychomotor skills and physical attributes
are advantageous and essential to achieve excellence in a chosen sport
(See Fig. 4). However, as these variables will be heavily influenced by
both past experiences and physical maturity (Ackland & Bloomfield,
1996; Bloomfield, Blanskby, & Ackland, 1990), immature values may be
highly unstable and are therefore poor predictors of talent. Nevertheless,
as many interdependent and compensatory processes will take place
within and between psycho-behavioral, psychomotor and physical
factors, it is crucial that an individual is also provided with the
opportunities that enables the development of a repertoire of required
psychomotor and physical performance dispositions.
The emphasis on psycho-behavioral, psychomotor and physical
factors within our proposed TiD model acknowledges the distinction
made by Kunst and Florescu (1971) between determinants of potential
and determinants of performance. Additionally, the model recognizes
that as an individual matures and develops within their chosen sport, the
emphasis will shift from monitoring determinants of potential to
performance (Fig. 4). However, considerable emphasis will still be
required on psycho-behavioral factors if an individual is to negotiate
successfully a pathway to excellence.

Pathways to Excellence
The model acknowledges that there are multiple pathways to
excellence that can emerge within any sport. These pathways are
typically complex, where athletes progress through various stages of
development and the requirements of individuals will adjust as they
progress through these stages (Tebbenham, 1998). Based on previous
research, four macro stages of development are highlighted within our
TiD model. Specifically, our model builds upon the three stages of
development identified by Bloom (1985) from his work with US athletes
(initiation stage, development stage and mastery stage), and also
recognizes Kreiner-Phillips and Orlicks (1992) work on the distinction
between getting there (producing a world-class performance) and
staying there (consistently producing world class performances) (see
Fig. 6) within each of these stages, unique favorable environmental
conditions exist and required support will differ. Additionally, it is
 NDPLS, 9(1), Talent Identification 79
important to recognize that whilst our model highlights four macro stages
of development, the successful athlete will progress through many micro
and mezo stages of development (e.g., coping with injury or a technique
change) making development and the kind of support required highly
idiosyncratic and difficult to predict (Ollis, 2002).
An awareness of the complex pathways to excellence also
emphasizes the necessity for performers to make several transitions in
their careers. For example, Fig. 5 indicates that for an individual to make
the transition to the mastery stage of development, increased technical
coaching and financial support will be required. Therefore, the ability of
an athlete to initiate and/or adapt to these changes is key to a successful
developmental transition.

Fig. 4. Proposed contribution of physical, motor & psychological disposi-

tions to the development and performance of an athlete (adapted from
Kunst & Florescu, 1971).
80 NDPLS, 9(1), Abbott et al.

Fig. 5. Stages of development previously identified within sport.

Successful Transition from One Stage

of Development to Another
Irrespective of the performance dispositions displayed or the
environmental opportunities afforded, an individual only displays true
potential when they are able to successfully transfer from one stage of
development to another in order to eventually achieve consistent
performance at the world-class level. Research has shown that this ability
to successfully transfer between stages of development is facilitated, and
indeed characterized, by an individual developing and applying a range
of psycho-behaviors (such as goal setting, self-reinforcement, and
realistic performance evaluation). Consider for instance, research by
Kreiner-Phillips and Orlick (1992) on the athlete who has obtained
international excellence but is unable to reproduce stable, high levels of
performance. Kreiner-Phillips and Orlick highlight that it is only those
athletes who are able to maintain their focus that are able to be consistent
world-class performers. Psycho-behaviors have been shown to strengthen
stable performance characteristics whilst resisting the perturbation of
distracting information (Moran, 1996).
Therefore, a key concept underpinning our approach is that
TiD processes should place early and continual emphasis on the
development and application of key psychological behaviors as
they will play a crucial role in bridging successful negotiations of
developmental transitions (Ollis, 2002) (see Fig. 6). Without the
ability to progress from one stage of development to the next, and
 NDPLS, 9(1), Talent Identification 81
to negotiate micro and mezo transitions encountered within a
development stage, an individual talent will at best remain a
potential. Finally, the model acknowledges that an individuals
capacity to make the transition to the next stage of development
may be facilitated or inhibited by their motor and physical
performance dispositions. For instance, an individual who has an
inadequate ratio of fast to slow twitch fibers will be find it
extremely difficult to successfully make the transitions to become
a world class sprinter.

Fig. 6. The role of psycho-behaviors in facilitating the successful nego-

tiation of developmental transitions.

Interaction of Elements
The model of TiD depicted in Fig. 7 combines the principles
presented within Figs 4, 5, and 6. As such, the model recognizes the
dynamic, evolutionary nature of talent and therefore the need to combine
82 NDPLS, 9(1), Abbott et al.

Fig. 7. A proposed multi-dimensional and dynamic model of talent

identification and development in sport.
 NDPLS, 9(1), Talent Identification 83
TI and TD processes. Consequently, our proposed TiD model requires a
shift from the traditional emphasis on selection and elimination to one of
development and continual monitoring. While the identification process
is typically seen as a precursor to the TD process, we advocate the need
to initially place less emphasis on the identification process and greater
emphasis on providing children with the opportunity to develop factors
that underpin successful development. As such, we advocate continual
monitoring and development of all components that may influence the
fulfillment of an individuals talent as opposed to the traditional
approach of identifying the talented based on one-off performance
observations (e.g., talent scouting in soccer). This approach recognizes
that multiple interactive and compensatory processes take place within
and between innate capabilities, environmental conditions, and psycho-
behaviors. Therefore, individuals should not be identified or deselected
on any one component (e.g., height) since an advantage on another or a
combination of other components (for instance, speed and commitment)
may compensate for other weaknesses.
Whilst the proposed model places substantial emphasis on the
role of psychology in actualizing ones potential, we acknowledge that the
transition from one stage of development to the next is also constrained
by motor and physical factors. Crucially, the proposed TiD model also
helps to guide the support provided to the athlete at different stages of
their development and not just serve a selection agenda. In other words,
(copying both jargon and approach from Higher Education) coaches and
scientists should increasingly adopt a formative as opposed to a
summative assessment approach in their TiD efforts. Therefore,
selection processes should consider an individuals progress and
behavior (e.g., commitment) during a development program as opposed
to purely considering performance levels. The proposed interaction of
potential performance dispositions (psychomotor, psycho-behavioral,
and physical) and environmental conditions, on the development of an
individual in sport is illustrated in Fig. 7.

CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS

In summary, we have reviewed some of our major concerns with
current TI processes in sport and alluded to more general applications in
other performance domains (e.g., business, education). Theoretical
considerations from non-linear dynamics and the study of complex
systems provide convincing support for an alternative approach
emphasizing the development of sporting talent. We have also explained
how many TI models have adopted a unidimensional, microscopic
84 NDPLS, 9(1), Abbott et al.
approach in which talent is inappropriately conceived as a set of discrete,
performance-based variables. It is likely that many countries (and
corporations) around the world are currently not selecting their most
potentially talented performers due to poorly defined and theoretically
weak selection tools. In order to address these issues, we have proposed a
generic, multidimensional model in which talent identification and talent
development (TiD) processes in sport are appropriately balanced.
To test the proposed TiD model with regard to some of the
nonlinear dynamics principles we have discussed would require a
significant research program with several stages. An important step
would be to identify the range of key determinants of elite performance
(perhaps through retroactive interviews with world-class athletes).
Importantly, longitudinal research is needed to monitor micro- and
macro-level transitions and to develop athlete behavior over time
(Morris, 2000). It would then be possible to test the stability
characteristics of an athletes behavior and associated dynamical
concepts such as resistance to perturbation and relaxation time back into
the new phase of their career. Finally, the fluctuations in performance
that athletes experience should be measured to anticipate appropriate
interventions particularly in the build up and recovery from transitions. A
specific working model along these lines is currently being piloted for
several sports in Scotland and it is expected to yield positive results over
the coming years. Finally, it is likely that many of the issues discussed in
this article which relate to TI in sport transfer to other performance
domains (e.g., business, education, arts etc.) (Gould, 2002; Lubinski &
Benbow, 2000; Simonton, 1999). Indeed, many of the psychological
behaviors that are considered necessary for talent development in sport
(such as mental focus, goal-setting and self-evaluation) are beginning to
receive greater attention across a range of performance domains (Jones,
2002; Loehr & Schwartz, 2001). In future work, researchers will gain an
appreciation of the benefits to be gained from actively facilitating such
psychological skills throughout the performers development.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The authors would like to thank two anonymous reviewers
and Stewart Ollis for their helpful suggestions and advice about
certain aspects of the paper.
ENDNOTE
In the sport context, we focus here on physical factors such as
height or weight but other performance domains such as business also
 NDPLS, 9(1), Talent Identification 85
use mental attributes such as intelligence or personality traits (Guion,
1998).
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