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Traffic Flow Theory
Distance, (m)
Space-time diagrams 5
Fundamental traffic equation q=k vs 6
Topics:
Definition of probability
Random Variables
Discrete Distributions
Poisson Example
Continuous Distributions
Negative Exponential Example
Probability Theory
Deterministic Processes: When the outcome of a situation or process can be known in
advance with certainty (unrealistic)
Discrete random variable: When the number of possible outcomes is countable (e.g.,
heads/tails, number on a die, number of people walking up to a ticket counter)
Otherwise, they are continuous random variable (e.g., time between events, e.g., buses at a
bus stop, cars approaching an intersection, people wanted to buy a burger)
Notation: Random Variables are denoted by capital letters (e.g., X, Y, Z) The realized values
they assume are denoted by lowercase letters (e.g., x, y, z).
The cumulative distribution function (cdf) defined the probability that a random
variable X is less than or equal to a particular value, x. F(x) will be a non-
decreasing step function, bounded between 0 and 1.
F(x) = P[X x]
Ex: Outcome of a single roll of a 6-sided die
1/6
Poisson Distribution
A Poisson process is a process in which events occur continuously and independently at a constant average rate.
The Poisson distribution has wide application in traffic situations. It describes the probability of x
occurrences of an event (successes) within a given interval of time (or space) t.
()
= for x = 0, 1,
!
Where l is the mean arrival rate, and x is the number of occurrences in time t
The mean and variance of the Poisson distribution are the same, E[X] = V[X] = lt. The pdf of the
Poisson distribution is the following:
Example Problem: Cars arrive at a parking garage at a rate of 90 veh/hr according to a Poisson
distribution. Compute the cumulative distribution for the random variable x that represents the
number of arrivals per minute.
Poisson Example
Problem: Cars arrive at a parking garage at a rate of 90 veh/hr according to a Poisson
distribution. Compute the cumulative distribution for the random variable X that
represents the number of arrivals per minute.
Solution: The mean arrival rate, l, is 1.5 veh/min (this is from 90 veh/hr); t = 1 min
(1.5 1) 1.51
= = =
!
x = = F =
0 0.223 0.223
1 0.335 0.558 Probability of 2 or less
vehicles arriving in a
Probability of 2 0.251 0.809 minute
exactly 1 vehicle
arriving in a minute 3 0.126 0.935
4 0.047 0.982
Probability of 5 0.014 0.996
exactly 4 vehicles
arriving in a minute Approaches 1
p(x) =1
Continuous Random Variable
Some situations can only be characterized by an uncountable (infinite) number of
possible outcomes, and are described by continuous random variables, e.g., time
headways between arrivals of people or vehicles
The probability density function (pdf) is f(x). Similar to the discrete case:
f(x) 0 for all x and = 1
Continuous Random Variable
The probability density function (pdf) is f(x).
f(x) 0 for all x and = 1
The probability that an outcome will fall in the interval [a, b] is:
[ = x b]
The cumulative distribution function (cdf) for a continuous variable is also defined the
probability that a random variable X is less than or equal to a particular value, x. F(x) will be
a non-decreasing function, bounded between 0 and 1.
Each distribution will be defined
by a different functional form, f(x)
F(x) = P[X x] =
Negative Exponential Distribution
Related to the discrete Poisson distribution. When the occurrence of an event follows the Poisson
distribution, the interval between occurrences is distributed according to the negative exponential.
For example, if vehicles arrive at an intersection according to the Poisson distribution, the interval
arrival times (headways between vehicles) are exponentially distributed.
f(x) = le-lx
Where l is the mean arrival rate, and x is the time between arrivals
Negative Exponential Example
Given the arrival pattern from before (cars arrive at an average rate of 1.5 veh/min):
(a) what is the probability the headway is less than or equal to 45 sec?
(b) What is the probability the headway is longer than 2 minutes?
Solution a): The probability the headway is less than 45 seconds is equal to the cdf at x = 0.75 min.
0.75
P[X 0.75min] = (1.5)e(1.5)x = F(0.75) = 1 - e-(1.5)0.75 = 0.675
Solution b): The probability the headway is longer than 2 minutes is equal to [1- F(2)].
P[X > 2min] = 1 - P[X 2min] = 1 (1- e-(1.5) 2 )= e-(1.5) 2 = 0.050
Back to Queues
Arrival and Service (Departures)
We previously considered probabilistic arrival processes,
e.g., Poisson process.
Service Distribution
Deterministic (e.g., green light time phase)
Random (e.g., supermarket check out)
Service Method:
First Come First Served (FCFS) or First In First Out (FIFO) (e.g., ramp meter)
Last Come First Served (LCFS) or Last In First Out (LIFO) (e.g., airplane)
Priority (e.g. HOV bypasses at ramp meters, some light rail/bus priority lanes)
Characteristics of Queues
Rates
Arrival Rate (veh/hr): A(t) =
Departure Rate (veh/hr): D(t) =
Service time (hr/veh): 1/
Utilization Rate (veh/hr): = /
Degree of Saturation
Oversaturated: > Always queueing
Under-saturated: < Sometimes queueing in stochastic system
Saturated: = Sometimes queueing in stochastic system
Queue Length Characteristics Finite (e.g., ramp meter) or Infinite (e.g., waiting list)
The average queue size (measured in vehicles) equals the arrival rate (vehicles per unit time)
multiplied by the average waiting time (both delay time in queue plus service time) (in units of
time). This result is independent of particular arrival distributions and, while perhaps obvious,
is an important fundamental principle that was not proven until 1961.
A(2)
A(1)
(vph)
Based on the departure rate and arrival rate pair data, the delay
of every individual vehicle can be obtained.
Time (min)
Deterministic Queue Example
Suppose vehicles arrive at a rate of 500 vehicles per hour for hour 1 (A1), and
300 vehicles per hour for hour 2 (A2). The server can discharge 400 vehicles
per hour (D(t)).
800 veh
A2 = 300vph
500 veh
D(t) = 400vph
A1 = 500vph
Time (min)
1 hr 2 hr
Deterministic Queue Example
Answers:
Suppose vehicles arrive at a rate of 500 vehicles per hour for hour 1 (A(1)), and
300 vehicles per hour for hour 2 (A(2)). The server can discharge 400 vehicles per
hour (D(t)).
b) What is the total delay? Compute the area under the triangle(s)
A = base* height = (0.5 *1 hr *100veh) + (0.5 *1 hr *100veh) = 100 veh-hr
Deterministic Queue Example
Answers:
Suppose vehicles arrive at a rate of 500 vehicles per hour for hour 1 (A(1)), and
300 vehicles per hour for hour 2 (A(2)). The server can discharge 400 vehicles per
hour (D(t)).
b) What is the total delay? Compute the area under the triangle(s)
A = base* height = (0.5 *1 hr *100veh) + (0.5 *1 hr *100veh) = 100 veh-hr
Cumulative inputs-outputs Diagram
Number of vehicles
800 veh
A2 = 300vph
500 veh
D(t) = 400vph
400 veh
Max Queue
A1 = 500vph
Time (min)
1 hr 2 hr
Deterministic Queue Example
Answers:
Suppose vehicles arrive at a rate of 500 vehicles per hour for hour 1 (A(1)), and
300 vehicles per hour for hour 2 (A(2)). The server can discharge 400 vehicles per
hour (D(t)).
a) What is the total delay? Compute the area under the triangle(s)
A = base* height = (0.5 *1 hr *100veh) + (0.5 *1 hr *100veh) = 100 veh-hr
Deterministic Queue Example
Answers:
Suppose vehicles arrive at a rate of 500 vehicles per hour for hour 1 (A(1)), and
300 vehicles per hour for hour 2 (A(2)). The server can discharge 400 vehicles per
hour (D(t)).
b) What is the total delay? Compute the area under the triangle(s)
A = base* height = (0.5 *1 hr *100 veh) + (0.5 *1 hr *100 veh) = 100 veh-hr
Cumulative inputs-outputs Diagram
Number of vehicles
800 veh
A2 = 300vph
1 hr = triangle base
500 veh
2 D(t) = 400vph
400 veh
A1 = 500vph
1 100 veh = triangle height
Time (min)
1 hr 2 hr
Deterministic Queue Example
Answers:
Suppose vehicles arrive at a rate of 500 vehicles per hour for hour 1 (A(1)), and
300 vehicles per hour for hour 2 (A(2)). The server can discharge 400 vehicles per
hour (D(t)).
b) What is the total delay? Compute the area under the triangle(s)
A = base* height = ( *1 hr *100 veh) + ( *1 hr *100 veh) = 100 veh-hr
Stochastic Queues
Rates
Arrival Rate (veh/hr): A(t) = These are now (independent)
Departure Rate (veh/hr): D(t) = random variables that each
follow a Poisson distribution
Service time (hr/veh): 1/
Utilization Rate (veh/hr): = /
Only Arrival
rate is random
Stochastic Queue Properties
E(n) - average queue size including customers currently being served
E(v) - average delay time (wait time + service time)
E(w) - average wait time (excludes service time)
What do we know?
This is an under-saturated system, <
As expected, the delay associated with the more random case (M/M/1, which
has both random arrivals and random service) is greater than the less random
case (M/D/1).
Krusty Burger Example M/M/1 Case
Problem 2:
How likely is it that Homer got his pile of hamburgers in less
than 1, 2, or 3 minutes?
Krusty Burger Example M/M/1 Case
Problem 2:
How likely is it that Homer got his pile of hamburgers in less
than 1, 2, or 3 minutes?