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= =

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x

4

Traffic Flow Theory

Distance, (m)

Space-time diagrams 5

Fundamental traffic equation q=k vs 6

Vehicle Following Origin , , , ,

Spacing requirements and relationship to safety Time, (seconds)

Relationship between spacing (m) and density (veh/km)

Relationship between headway (sec) and flow (veh/hr)

Average speed calculations (time vs space)

Moving Observer Method

Level of Service

Introduction to Queueing Theory

Queueing

theory, a model is constructed so that queue lengths and waiting time can be predicted.

(In regards to transport) queueing is the study of traffic behaviour near a certain section

where demand exceeds available capacity.

When not dealt with properly, queues can result in severe network congestion or

"gridlock" conditions, therefore making them something important to be studied and

understood by engineers

Examples of queues in transport

For Roads:

Geometric Bottlenecks (lane drops, hard curves, hills)

Accidents and Incidents

Traffic Signals and Intersection Controls

Toll Booths

Ramp Meters

"Gawker" Effect

Platform Capacities

Ticket Windows/Ticket Machines

Security Checkpoints

Runways

Available Airspace for Approaches and Departures

Ticketing Counters/Check-in Procedures

Security Checkpoints

Examples of queues NOT in transport

Before we jump to queues

Lets revisit probability theory.

Topics:

Definition of probability

Random Variables

Discrete Distributions

Poisson Example

Continuous Distributions

Negative Exponential Example

Probability Theory

Deterministic Processes: When the outcome of a situation or process can be known in

advance with certainty (unrealistic)

uncertainty into situations. Probability theory evolved in 1654 out of a gambling dispute

between two famous French mathematicians, Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat.

Random Variables

A random variable is a variable that takes on the values of an experiment.

Discrete random variable: When the number of possible outcomes is countable (e.g.,

heads/tails, number on a die, number of people walking up to a ticket counter)

Otherwise, they are continuous random variable (e.g., time between events, e.g., buses at a

bus stop, cars approaching an intersection, people wanted to buy a burger)

Notation: Random Variables are denoted by capital letters (e.g., X, Y, Z) The realized values

they assume are denoted by lowercase letters (e.g., x, y, z).

Discrete Probability Distributions

Examples of Discrete Events:

1. Flipping a coin

2. Rolling a die

3. The blood type of a given donor

A (fair) coin is flipped 3 times. X is the number of times heads occurs.

Possible values of x are 0,1,2,3.

8 possible outcomes exist: TTT, TTH, THT, HTT, HHT, HTH, THH, HHH

P(x=0) = 1/8

P(x=1) = 3/8

P(x=2) = 3/8

P(x=3) = 1/8

Uniform, Bernoulli, binomial, geometric, negative binomial, Poisson.

Discrete Probability Distributions

A function, p(x) = P[X=x] associates each value of a discrete random variable to its

probability, and is know as the probability mass function (pmf). The following

conditions must always be satisfied:

The cumulative distribution function (cdf) defined the probability that a random

variable X is less than or equal to a particular value, x. F(x) will be a non-

decreasing step function, bounded between 0 and 1.

F(x) = P[X x]

Ex: Outcome of a single roll of a 6-sided die

1/6

Poisson Distribution

A Poisson process is a process in which events occur continuously and independently at a constant average rate.

The Poisson distribution has wide application in traffic situations. It describes the probability of x

occurrences of an event (successes) within a given interval of time (or space) t.

()

= for x = 0, 1,

!

Where l is the mean arrival rate, and x is the number of occurrences in time t

The mean and variance of the Poisson distribution are the same, E[X] = V[X] = lt. The pdf of the

Poisson distribution is the following:

Example Problem: Cars arrive at a parking garage at a rate of 90 veh/hr according to a Poisson

distribution. Compute the cumulative distribution for the random variable x that represents the

number of arrivals per minute.

Poisson Example

Problem: Cars arrive at a parking garage at a rate of 90 veh/hr according to a Poisson

distribution. Compute the cumulative distribution for the random variable X that

represents the number of arrivals per minute.

Solution: The mean arrival rate, l, is 1.5 veh/min (this is from 90 veh/hr); t = 1 min

(1.5 1) 1.51

= = =

!

x = = F =

0 0.223 0.223

1 0.335 0.558 Probability of 2 or less

vehicles arriving in a

Probability of 2 0.251 0.809 minute

exactly 1 vehicle

arriving in a minute 3 0.126 0.935

4 0.047 0.982

Probability of 5 0.014 0.996

exactly 4 vehicles

arriving in a minute Approaches 1

p(x) =1

Continuous Random Variable

Some situations can only be characterized by an uncountable (infinite) number of

possible outcomes, and are described by continuous random variables, e.g., time

headways between arrivals of people or vehicles

Instead, probabilities are associated with ranges of the outcome.

The probability density function (pdf) is f(x). Similar to the discrete case:

f(x) 0 for all x and = 1

Continuous Random Variable

The probability density function (pdf) is f(x).

f(x) 0 for all x and = 1

The probability that an outcome will fall in the interval [a, b] is:

[ = x b]

The cumulative distribution function (cdf) for a continuous variable is also defined the

probability that a random variable X is less than or equal to a particular value, x. F(x) will be

a non-decreasing function, bounded between 0 and 1.

Each distribution will be defined

by a different functional form, f(x)

F(x) = P[X x] =

Negative Exponential Distribution

Related to the discrete Poisson distribution. When the occurrence of an event follows the Poisson

distribution, the interval between occurrences is distributed according to the negative exponential.

For example, if vehicles arrive at an intersection according to the Poisson distribution, the interval

arrival times (headways between vehicles) are exponentially distributed.

f(x) = le-lx

Where l is the mean arrival rate, and x is the time between arrivals

Negative Exponential Example

Given the arrival pattern from before (cars arrive at an average rate of 1.5 veh/min):

(a) what is the probability the headway is less than or equal to 45 sec?

(b) What is the probability the headway is longer than 2 minutes?

Solution a): The probability the headway is less than 45 seconds is equal to the cdf at x = 0.75 min.

0.75

P[X 0.75min] = (1.5)e(1.5)x = F(0.75) = 1 - e-(1.5)0.75 = 0.675

Solution b): The probability the headway is longer than 2 minutes is equal to [1- F(2)].

P[X > 2min] = 1 - P[X 2min] = 1 (1- e-(1.5) 2 )= e-(1.5) 2 = 0.050

Back to Queues

Arrival and Service (Departures)

We previously considered probabilistic arrival processes,

e.g., Poisson process.

Arrival and Service Distributions

Arrival Distribution

Deterministic (uniform) (e.g., )

Random (e.g. Poisson) (e.g., intersection)

Service Distribution

Deterministic (e.g., green light time phase)

Random (e.g., supermarket check out)

Service Method:

First Come First Served (FCFS) or First In First Out (FIFO) (e.g., ramp meter)

Last Come First Served (LCFS) or Last In First Out (LIFO) (e.g., airplane)

Priority (e.g. HOV bypasses at ramp meters, some light rail/bus priority lanes)

Characteristics of Queues

Rates

Arrival Rate (veh/hr): A(t) =

Departure Rate (veh/hr): D(t) =

Service time (hr/veh): 1/

Utilization Rate (veh/hr): = /

Degree of Saturation

Oversaturated: > Always queueing

Under-saturated: < Sometimes queueing in stochastic system

Saturated: = Sometimes queueing in stochastic system

Queue Length Characteristics Finite (e.g., ramp meter) or Infinite (e.g., waiting list)

Size and waiting time of queues

E(n) - average queue size including customers currently being served (in number of units)

E(w) - average wait time (excludes service time)

E(v) - average delay time (wait time + service time) due to the existence of the bottleneck

E(m) - expected number of units in the queue (excluding customers being served), which is

a different formula ( arrival rate multiplied by the average waiting time,

The average queue size (measured in vehicles) equals the arrival rate (vehicles per unit time)

multiplied by the average waiting time (both delay time in queue plus service time) (in units of

time). This result is independent of particular arrival distributions and, while perhaps obvious,

is an important fundamental principle that was not proven until 1961.

Deterministic Queues

Queueing Cumulative Input-Output Diagram

Link Performance Function (BPR)

A(2)

A(1)

(vph)

Cumulative inputs-outputs Diagram (Newell Curve)

Number of vehicles

Based on the departure rate and arrival rate pair data, the delay

of every individual vehicle can be obtained.

departure - time of arrival (t2 t1).

Departure Rate D(t)

The queue at time t is the difference in

Queue the cumulative number of vehicles that

have arrived and departed, (n2 n1).

delay

each vehicle, which is the area in the

triangle between the arrival (A(t)) and

departure (D(t)) curves.

Time (min)

Deterministic Queue Example

Suppose vehicles arrive at a rate of 500 vehicles per hour for hour 1 (A1), and

300 vehicles per hour for hour 2 (A2). The server can discharge 400 vehicles

per hour (D(t)).

b) What is the maximum queue

c) What is the total delay

Cumulative inputs-outputs Diagram

Number of vehicles

800 veh

A2 = 300vph

500 veh

D(t) = 400vph

A1 = 500vph

Time (min)

1 hr 2 hr

Deterministic Queue Example

Answers:

Suppose vehicles arrive at a rate of 500 vehicles per hour for hour 1 (A(1)), and

300 vehicles per hour for hour 2 (A(2)). The server can discharge 400 vehicles per

hour (D(t)).

Total Arrivals 500veh/hr*1hr + 300veh/hr*1hr = 800 veh

Total Departures 400veh/hr*2hr = 800 veh

800veh 800 veh = 0 veh in the queue at 2 hrs

(500veh arrive in hour 1) (400 veh depart in hr 1) = 100 veh in queue at 1 hour

b) What is the total delay? Compute the area under the triangle(s)

A = base* height = (0.5 *1 hr *100veh) + (0.5 *1 hr *100veh) = 100 veh-hr

Deterministic Queue Example

Answers:

Suppose vehicles arrive at a rate of 500 vehicles per hour for hour 1 (A(1)), and

300 vehicles per hour for hour 2 (A(2)). The server can discharge 400 vehicles per

hour (D(t)).

Total Arrivals 500veh/hr*1hr + 300veh/hr*1hr = 800 veh

Total Departures 400veh/hr*2hr = 800 veh

800veh 800 veh = 0 veh in the queue at 2 hrs

b) What is the total delay? Compute the area under the triangle(s)

A = base* height = (0.5 *1 hr *100veh) + (0.5 *1 hr *100veh) = 100 veh-hr

Cumulative inputs-outputs Diagram

Number of vehicles

800 veh

A2 = 300vph

500 veh

D(t) = 400vph

400 veh

Max Queue

A1 = 500vph

Time (min)

1 hr 2 hr

Deterministic Queue Example

Answers:

Suppose vehicles arrive at a rate of 500 vehicles per hour for hour 1 (A(1)), and

300 vehicles per hour for hour 2 (A(2)). The server can discharge 400 vehicles per

hour (D(t)).

Arrivals 500veh/hr*1hr + 300veh/hr*1hr = 800 veh

Departures 400veh/hr*2hr = 800 veh

800veh 800 veh = 0 veh in the queue at 2 hrs

(500veh arrive in hour 1) (400 veh depart in hr 1) = 100 veh in queue at 1 hour

a) What is the total delay? Compute the area under the triangle(s)

A = base* height = (0.5 *1 hr *100veh) + (0.5 *1 hr *100veh) = 100 veh-hr

Deterministic Queue Example

Answers:

Suppose vehicles arrive at a rate of 500 vehicles per hour for hour 1 (A(1)), and

300 vehicles per hour for hour 2 (A(2)). The server can discharge 400 vehicles per

hour (D(t)).

Arrivals 500veh/hr*1hr + 300veh/hr*1hr = 800 veh

Departures 400veh/hr*2hr = 800 veh

800veh 800 veh = 0 veh in the queue at 2 hrs

(500veh arrive in hour 1) (400 veh depart in hr 1) = 100 veh in queue at 1 hour

b) What is the total delay? Compute the area under the triangle(s)

A = base* height = (0.5 *1 hr *100 veh) + (0.5 *1 hr *100 veh) = 100 veh-hr

Cumulative inputs-outputs Diagram

Number of vehicles

800 veh

A2 = 300vph

1 hr = triangle base

500 veh

2 D(t) = 400vph

400 veh

A1 = 500vph

1 100 veh = triangle height

Time (min)

1 hr 2 hr

Deterministic Queue Example

Answers:

Suppose vehicles arrive at a rate of 500 vehicles per hour for hour 1 (A(1)), and

300 vehicles per hour for hour 2 (A(2)). The server can discharge 400 vehicles per

hour (D(t)).

Arrivals 500veh/hr*1hr + 300veh/hr*1hr = 800 veh

Departures 400veh/hr*2hr = 800 veh

800veh 800 veh = 0 veh in the queue at 2 hrs

(500veh arrive in hour 1) (400 veh depart in hr 1) = 100 veh in queue at 1 hour

b) What is the total delay? Compute the area under the triangle(s)

A = base* height = ( *1 hr *100 veh) + ( *1 hr *100 veh) = 100 veh-hr

Stochastic Queues

Rates

Arrival Rate (veh/hr): A(t) = These are now (independent)

Departure Rate (veh/hr): D(t) = random variables that each

follow a Poisson distribution

Service time (hr/veh): 1/

Utilization Rate (veh/hr): = /

Under-saturated: < Sometimes queueing

Number of Channels = 1 (e.g. Ramps, Supermarket, road lanes)

Infinite Capacity

Stochastic Queue Properties

E(n) - average queue size including customers currently being served

E(v) - average delay time (wait time + service time)

E(w) - average wait time (excludes service time)

Only Arrival

rate is random

Stochastic Queue Properties

E(n) - average queue size including customers currently being served

E(v) - average delay time (wait time + service time)

E(w) - average wait time (excludes service time)

rate is random rate are random

Additional M/M/1 Queue Properties

Krusty Burger Queueing Example

Problem 1: At the Krusty-Burger, if the arrival rate is 1 customer every

minute and the service rate is 1 customer every 45 seconds, find the

average queue size, the average waiting time, and average total delay.

Compare solutions for a M/D/1 an M/M/1 process.

Krusty Burger Example

Information Provided:

Arrival rate, l = 1 customer every minute

Service rate, m = 1 customer every 45 seconds

Number of channels = 1

m = 1.33 customers per minute

Utilization rate, r = l/ m = 1 / 1.33 = 0.75 (Meaning the server is busy on average 75% of the

time)

What do we know?

This is an under-saturated system, <

E(n) Queue; E(w) wait time; E(v) - delay

Krusty Burger Example M/M/1 Case

Krusty Burger Example M/M/1 Case

Krusty Burger Example M/M/1 Case

Krusty Burger Example M/M/1 Case

Krusty Burger Example M/M/1 Case

Krusty Burger Example M/D/1 Case

As expected, the delay associated with the more random case (M/M/1, which

has both random arrivals and random service) is greater than the less random

case (M/D/1).

Krusty Burger Example M/M/1 Case

Problem 2:

How likely is it that Homer got his pile of hamburgers in less

than 1, 2, or 3 minutes?

Krusty Burger Example M/M/1 Case

Problem 2:

How likely is it that Homer got his pile of hamburgers in less

than 1, 2, or 3 minutes?

Krusty Burger Example M/M/1 Case

Problem 2:

How likely is it that Homer got his pile of hamburgers in less

than 1, 2, or 3 minutes?

Krusty Burger Example M/M/1 Case

Problem 2:

How likely is it that Homer got his pile of hamburgers in less

than 1, 2, or 3 minutes?

Krusty Burger Example M/M/1 Case

Problem 2:

How likely is it that Homer got his pile of hamburgers in less

than 1, 2, or 3 minutes?

Krusty Burger Example M/M/1 Case

Problem 3:

Before he encounters the pimply face teen who serves burgers,

what is the likelihood that homer waited more than three minutes?

Krusty Burger Example M/M/1 Case

Problem 3:

Before he encounters the pimply face teen who serves burgers,

what is the likelihood that homer waited more than three minutes?

Krusty Burger Example M/M/1 Case

Problem 4:

How likely is it that there were more than five customers in front

of Homer?

Krusty Burger Example M/M/1 Case

Problem 4:

How likely is it that there were more than five customers in front

of Homer?

Questions?