4 January 2007

Research Manager
Australian Fisheries Management Authority
3rd Floor, John Curtin House
22 Brisbane Avenue
Barton ACT 2600

Re: 2006/805 Continued stock assessment and management strategy evaluation for sub-Antarctic
fisheries: 2006-2007.

Dear Sir/Madam,

Please find enclosed a brief progress report for the above project. Please let me know if any additional
information is needed.

Yours sincerely,

Dr. Geoff Tuck

Attachments:

A. Pribac, F. 2006. An adjustment to the abundance estimate for Patagonian toothfish (Dissostichus
eleginoides) at Macquarie Island: 2006. SARAG28, 14 November, 2006. Australian Fisheries
Management Authority, Canberra, Australia.

B. Tuck, G.N., Pribac, F. and Lamb, T. 2006. An integrated assessment of Patagonian toothfish
(Dissostichus eleginoides) in the Aurora Trough region of Macquarie Island: 2006 update. Sub-
Antarctic Fisheries Assessment Group document. SARAG27, 25-26 September, 2006. Australian
Fisheries Management Authority, Canberra, Australia.

C. Tuck, G.N. 2006. A simulation approach to the evaluation of management strategies for
Patagonian toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) of Aurora Trough, Macquarie Island: Update June
2006. Sub-Antarctic Fisheries Assessment Group document. . SARAG27, 25-26 September, 2006.
Australian Fisheries Management Authority, Canberra, Australia

Cc:
Malcolm Haddon (SARAG Chair)
Tony Smith (CSIRO EBFM Leader)
Debbie Vince (Finance Officer)

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MILESTONE PROGRESS REPORT TO

AUSTRALIAN FISHERIES MANAGEMENT AUTHORITY

NAME OF RESEARCH PROVIDER: CSIRO MARINE AND ATMOSPHERIC

RESEARCH

PROJECT TITLE: 2006/805. Continued stock assessment and management strategy

evaluation for sub-Antarctic fisheries: 2006-2007

PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Dr. Geoff Tuck

ORIGINAL MILESTONE DATE AND TITLE: 30/12/06

(as specified in agreement)
Brief Progress Report

PROGRESS AGAINST OBJECTIVES:

1. To provide the SAFAG with updated information on the current status of

Patagonian toothfish around Macquarie Island.

The report by Tuck, Pribac, Lamb and Williams1 (2006) describes the
latest stock assessment for Macquarie Island Patagonian toothfish. This
document was presented inter-sessionally to SARAG members on 29
June, 2006 (prior to the commencement of this project) where industry,
managers and scientists were able to review and discuss the results in
order to provide TAC recommendations to SouthMAC. Since then a brief
update (Pribac, 2006; Attachment A) was provided to SARAG members at
the 14 November meeting (SARAG28). This update was necessary as
there had been some relatively minor changes to the data inputs (tag
release/recapture and catch tables) to the assessment model. The updated
model run for Aurora Trough had amounted to a 3.3% increase in
available biomass. This translated to an increase in the TAC by 8 tonnes,
going from 241 tonnes to 249 tonnes for the 2006/07 season. SARAG
decided that no amendment to the TAC was necessary.
Tuck, Pribac and Lamb (2006; Attachment B) updates the integrated
assessment application to the Aurora Trough stock of Patagonian toothfish
at Macquarie Island using data collected up to and including March 2006.
The assessment is based on an age-structured model of fish population
dynamics and uses a likelihood framework to fit to age-structured tag-
recapture data and catch length-frequencies. The model estimates virgin
year-class strength and the annual recruitment residuals (providing
estimates of annual cohort strength). Key outputs of the model are

1
Tuck, G.N., Pribac, F., Lamb, T. and Williams, R. 2006. Abundance estimation and TAC setting for
Patagonian toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) at Macquarie Island: 2006. Technical paper considered
inter-sessionally by SARAG, 29 June 2006.

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 trajectories of mature biomass (with confidence bounds) and an
assessment of risk associated with different levels of future catch.
Results provide acceptable fits to catch length-frequencies and tag-
recapture data. The catch length-frequencies indicate that most catch from
the first year of fishing (1995/96) was from recruitments occurring in 1981
and 1988. Estimates of catch-at-age suggest that much of this initial catch
was from mature age fish recruited in 1981. Estimates of available
biomass show a declining and then recovering trajectory, similar to that
observed in the previous lumped-age assessment models (Tuck, Williams
and Lamb, 2005a). A generally consistent time-series of mature biomass is
shown over all sensitivities considered. Mature biomass for the base case
model is estimated to have been around 3,200t at 1 July 1995, and is
estimated to be around 1700t by 30 June 2006. Mature biomass in Aurora
Trough, under most models, is currently estimated to be above 50% (base
case is 54%) of the reference biomass level. The model predicts that
mature biomass over the next few years will increase as the fish from the
large 1994 cohort move into spawning population. There does not appear
to have been any major recruitment to the fishery since the large 1994
recruitment. To assess the risk associated with different future levels of
catch, forward projections (1000 simulations) were carried out over a 35-
year period with the catch held at a range of levels. The projections are
based on 1000 random samples from the Bayesian posterior distribution.
Projection results indicate that an annual TAC of approximately 100t will
lead to a median reduction in mature biomass to 50% of the reference
level over a 35 year projection period.
These models are in the process of being updated for the next assessment
round (May/June 2007). New data from the fishery will be included and
assessment models that extend those above are being developed.

2. To develop long-term management strategies for the Macquarie Island

Patagonian toothfish fishery.

The paper by Tuck (2006; Attachment C) describes the latest application

of MSE analyses applied to the Aurora Trough population of toothfish at
Macquarie Island. This paper was presented to SARAG27 (25-26
September, 2006) where industry, managers and scientists were able to
review and discuss the results in order to provide TAC and management
recommendations to SouthMAC. The objectives of the MSE were updated
in accordance with those stated by Haddon (SAFAG20/3). The method
used to condition the historical component of the fishery was refined by
using the age-structured integrated assessment model (Tuck, Pribac and
Lamb, 2006). Two alternative formulations for the calculation of the
percent remaining of available biomass were considered, namely,

PRB A 100 B f / B 0 Model A

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 or
PRB B 100 B f /( B 0 exp( M )) Model B

where Bf is the final biomass, Bo is the initial biomass and M is natural

mortality.
Results showed that mean annual catches across management alternatives
ranged between 90t and 118t, giving percent remaining in SSB of 52% to
35%. For the same harvest rate , percent remaining Model A produced
lower mean annual catches than Model B, larger commercial catches
(when a commercial fishery exists), a larger fraction of remaining mature
biomass in the long-term and more frequent commercial closure. Model A
with a research quota of 60t and harvest rate =0.1 is the most analogous
management strategy to that currently adopted at Macquarie Island. This
led to mean yields of 101t per year, mean commercial catches (not
including research quota years) of 282t and a final percent remaining in
spawning biomass of 44%. Many of the management strategies considered
produce large proportions of years with research quotas being adopted (i.e.
commercial closure). This is a consequence of commercial catches driving
the stock well below the target reference levels. In some circumstances, it
then takes many years for the stock to recover to a level that would again
allow a commercial TAC. Having no research quota and simply applying
the harvest rate every year to the available biomass greatly reduces the
final SSB relative to initial values. If this strategy is to be adopted then a
lower harvest rate than 0.1 would need to be applied. However, for
0.05 the TACs are frequently low (below 60t on 42% of simulated
years), suggesting that this strategy may not be economically viable.
Model A with a research quota of 60t and harvest rate 0.05 led to a
final median spawning biomass being greater than 50%, with a mean
annual yield of around 90t.
Refinements are currently being made to the tested harvest strategies to
bring them closer to those applied to the Macquarie Island population and
to that which may be adopted in the future for this fishery. Alternative
harvest strategies will continue to be tested. Results from these
simulations will be presented to the SARAG in May/June of 2007.
Collaboration with Andre Punt (University of Washington) and Tony
Smith (CSIRO) is assisting this work.

3. To participate in the stock assessments for Heard and McDonald Islands

Patagonian toothfish and icefish conducted through CCAMLR, and assist in
providing effective communication between the CCAMLR and AFMA
assessment processes.

Dr. Tuck and Dr. Pribac are scientific members of SARAG where issues
related to the assessment of Australias sub-Antarctic fish stocks are
discussed. These project staff attended the pre-CCAMLR SARAG
meeting (SARAG27, 25-26 Sept 2006) where issues relating to the

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 assessment of HIMI icefish and toothfish were discussed. Dr. Pribac also
attends the pre-CCAMLR industry consultation meetings at the Australian
Antarctic Division and CCAMLR Consultative Forum meetings.

INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY ISSUES ARISING:

None

PUBLICATIONS OR MEDIA REPORTS:

None

VARIATIONS TO PROJECT:
There are no variations to the original project proposal.