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What is Alpha?
Is Alpha Dead?
2
What Is Alpha?
3
Beating the Market Has Become Nearly Impossible
OBITUARIES
Alpha is Dead
4 Source: Institutional Investor, Julie Segal, Oct 27 2013; The Death of Alpha On Wall Street, Scott Appleby, Tabb Forum, December 23, 2013
Who Is To Blame For the Death of Alpha?
Consultants Too Quick to Replace Managers
Investment Committees Weak Governance, Spending Majority of Time
On Non-Governance Matters (i.e. Economy, Performance, etc)
Financial Innovation ETFs Are Commoditizing Alpha
Money Managers Overpromise Performance & Over Simplify Process
Pension Staff Inexperience Leads To Chasing Hot Performing Managers
Private Equity Firms Reduce # of Stocks By Taking Companies Private
Regulators & Accountants Regulation Fair Disclosure
Sell Side (i.e. Brokers) Decline In Quantity/Quality of Research
Traders Electronic Trading Reduces Trade Information Flow
Technology The Internet Information is Immediately Disseminated
7
Active/Passive Investing Success Varies Over Time
8 Source: Peak Passive: The Coming Active Renaissance, by Joe Mezrich, Nomura Quant Strategy, Jan 5, 2017
Three Fundamental Laws Driving The Active/Passive Debate
9
The Market Is Driven By Different Factors Over Time
In the Short Term, Many Factors Can Drive Market Returns and
Influence The Success Of Active Management Irrespective Of Skill:
10.
Cap Managers Tend to Outperform When Cap Wins
Russell 2000 TRI - S&P 500 TRI
Quarterly, Mar 1980 Dec 2016
Statistics
1 Year
20% Small Cap Qtrl.
Rolling
40.0%
Mean 0.1% -0.3%
Outperforms Median -0.4% -1.0%
Stdev 5.2% 11.7% 30.0%
15% High 15.1% 41.5%
Low -15.4% -34.7%
10.0%
5%
0.0%
0%
-10.0%
-5%
-20.0%
-10%
Large Cap -30.0%
Outperforms
-15% -40.0%
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
20% 20%
0% 0%
-20% -20%
-40% -40%
-60% -60%
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Standard Deviation 30 days
Risk is measured as 30 Day Standard Deviation of Returns, Top 30 and bottom 30 stocks,
12 3 Month Rolling Data, Monthly Rebalanced
Sources: See Footnote 1.
In High Risk Regimes, Stock Correlations Are High and
Stock Dispersion is Low
Russell 1000 120 Day Intra-Portfolio Correlation vs VIX
Monthly, Dec 1986 Dec 2016
IPC VIX
Statistics Statistics
Dec-16
0.7 IPC: 0.18 70.0
Mean 0.28 Mean 20.62
Median 0.26 Median 18.91 VIX: 14.0
0.6 Stdev 0.12 Stdev 7.97 60.0
High 0.66 High 61.41
Low 0.07 Low 9.82
0.5
50.0
0.4
40.0
0.3
30.0
0.2
20.0
0.1
0.0 10.0
-0.1 0.0
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Recession Periods and Bear Markets IPC Average VIX VIX
1- Erb, Claude B., Harvey, Campbell R., and Viskanta, Tadas E., Forecasting International Equity Correlations (November/December 1994), Financial
Analysts Journal, Pages 32 45; Campbell, Rachel, Koedijk, Kees, and Kofman, Paul., Increased Correlation in Bear Markets (January/February 2002). AIMR,
Pages 87-94. Bouchaud; Jean-Philippe, and Potters, Marc., More Stylized Facts of Financial Markets: Leverage Effect and Downside Correlations (2001).
Physica A, Pages 60-70; Pownall, Rachel A.J., Forbes, Catherine S., Koedijk, Kees C. G. and Kofman, Paul, Diversification Meltdown or Just Fat Tails? (June
2006), EFA 2006 Zurich Meetings; Ankrim, Ernest M., and Ding, Zhuaxin., Cross-Sectional Volatility and Return Dispersion (September/October 2002),
AIMR, Pages 67-73;Weigand, Robert A., Gorman, Larry R. and Sapra, Steven G., The Cross-Sectional Dispersion of Stock Returns, Alpha and the Information
13 Ratio (Fall, 2010), Journal of Investing; Bouchey, Paul., Fjelstad, Mary. and Vadlamudi, Hemambara., Measuring Alpha Potential in the Market (2011).
Journal of Investing. Fall 2011, Vol. 2, No. 2: Pages 40-47.
Noise Traders Trade On Noise As If It Were Information
Adaptive Markets Hypothesis (AMH) is based on an evolutionary approach to economic interactions, which incorporates behavioral biases and argues that markets are not efficient but are driven
by fear and greed. The Degree of Market Efficiency Is Related To Environmental FactorsSuch as the Number of Competitors In the Market, the Magnitude of Profit Opportunities Available etc
Sources: *De Long, J.B., A. Shleifer, L. Summers, and R. Waldmann., Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation (Jun 1990), Journal of
Finance, pp: 379 395. Lo, Andrew W., The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis: Market Efficiency from an Evolutionary Perspective, (2004), The Journal of Portfolio
14 Management, 30, pp: 15-29.
.
.
.
.
. Fears surfaced
. that if the government takes a bigger stake in major banks, this would be
49 . 2009
Apr 20, -4.48% nationalizing. the banks through their back doors. Citigroup was down big today on this news.
Wall Street rallied Thursday, finding momentum at the end of tough session, on a CNBC report
50 Sep 18, 2008 4.41% that the government is working on a more permanent solution to absorbing bad debt.
Source: What Moves Stock Prices: Another Look, by Bradford Cornell, The Journal of Portfolio Management 2013.39.3:32-38
15
This Law Will Help You Avoid The Performance Trap
16 Source: Perspectives on Institutional Investment Management, by Harry S. Marmer, Rogers Publishing, 2002
Chasing Performance
Law #1 Suggests That It is Very Challenging For Active
Managers To Stay Consistently in First Quartile
Managers in Top Quartile
51 4 2 1 0
1 Year Of Past Performance Has NO
Predictive Power
17 Source: Hillsdale Investment Management, eVestment Alliance. Manager universe is based on eVestments All Canadian Equity Universe.
Active Investment Management Is Usually Called Into
Question At Precisely The Wrong Time
RBC Dexia Median Canadian Equity Manager vs. S&P/TSX TRI
Yearly, 1990 - 2015
9% 9%
8% 8%
7% 7%
6% 6%
5% 5%
4% 4%
3% 3%
2011
2% 2%
1% 1%
0% 0%
-1% -1%
-2% -2%
-3% -3%
-4% -4%
1993
-5% -5%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Calendar Year Value Added 4 Year Annualized
Part A.
Market (Index) Return = Passive Portfolios + Active Portfolios
Source: The Arithmetic of Active Management: Does Fund Size Matter?The Financial Analysts' Journal Vol. 47, No. 1, by William Sharpe,
19 January/February 1991. pp. 7-9. Before Costs The Return On The Average Actively Managed Dollar Will Equal The Return On the Average Passively
Managed Dollar.
In A Perfect World or Efficient Market, The Median
Manager Will Approximate the Index Return Before Costs
16%
1st Quartile
14%
3rd Quartile Median S&P 500
Manager
12%
10%
US Equity Universe
1st Quartile 15.06
Median 14.29
3rd Quartile 13.71
S&P 500 14.45
Part B.
Market Return Passive Portfolios + Active Portfolios
21 Source Harry Marmer, The Active vs Passive Debate: A Never Ending Debate. Unpublished
How The Arithmetic of Active Investment Management May
Not Add Up
22 1 This is discussed in more detail by Manager Selection, by Scott Stewart, Research Foundation of CFA Institute, 2013.
In An Imperfect or Inefficient World, The Median Manager
Will Not Approximate the Market
Canadian Small/SMID Cap Equities 5 Year Annualized Returns Ending Dec 2015
18.0%
15.0%
12.0%
5th Percentile 15.7%
9.0% 1st Quartile 6.9%
Median Median 5.2%
6.0% Manager
3rd Quartile 1.8%
3.0%
95th Percentile -0.2%
S&P/TSX Small Cap -5.7%
0.0%
-3.0% TSX
Small Cap
-6.0%
Cdn Small/SMID Cap
Factor
1 Intelligence
2 Knowledge
3 Focus
4 Long-Term Thinking
5 Independent Thinking
6 Alignment of Interests
25 Source: Pg 32 in Manager Selection, by Scott D. Steward. (December 2013), Research Foundation of CFA Institute.
Active Management Is Hard*
*Quote is sourced from The Great Divide Over Market Efficiency, Clifford Asness, John Liew, Institutional Investor, March 2014
26
Where to Search For Alpha (Value Added)
i.e. Beat The Market
27
Smart Managers Who Can Count Cards
28
Counting Cards A Visual
Breadth
-15% -15%
-25% -25%
Bond Universe Small Cap Universe
Quartile 1 Quartile 2 Quartile 1 Quartile 2
Quartile 4 Quartile 3 Quartile 4 Quartile 3
30 Source: Harry Marmer, pg 60, in Perspectives On Institutional Investing, Rogers Publishing, 2002
The Perversity of Success in Asset Management - Success
Can Lead to Mediocrity
Value
Added
0
Assets Under Management
Sources: Perspectives in Institutional Investment Management, by Harry Marmer, Rogers Publishing, 2002, page 61, Asset Growth and Its Impact on
Expected Alpha, by R.Kahn, in Global Perspectives on Investment Management, CFA Institute, 2006, pages 197 212, The Right Amount of Assets
Under Management, by A. Perold and R. Salomon Jr. FAJ, May-June 1991, 31 - 39 and Optimal Asset Allocation and Risk Shifting in Money
31 Management, by S. Basak, A. Pavola and A. Shapiro, The Review of Financial Studies, 2007, page 1583- 1621
Why Can Alpha Shrink Over Time?
1. Active Bets Diminish Over Time
2. Skills Are No Longer Skills
3. Increase in AUM
i. Transaction Costs Creep Up
ii. # of Securities Increase
ii. Hire More Professionals Increase in Securities
iii. Higher Administrative Stress
iv. Deviation from Style
4. Lifecycle of A Business, i.e. Business Decisions
No Skill
Protective Mode, i.e. Guardian Mentality
Sources: Mutual Fund Performance: Does Fund Size Matter? Financial Analyst Journal, by Daniel C. Indro, Christine X. Jiang, Michael Y. Hu and
32 Wyne Y. Lee, May 1999, The Evolution of Investment Processes, by Paul Greenwood, Russell Research Commentary, June 1999.
As AUM Increases, More Professionals Are Hired, More
Administrative Care Is Required
Number of CFA Charter Holders vs. Number of Stocks & Mutual Funds
180,000
160,000
Exponential
Growth
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Source: Elton, Edwin J., Martin J. Gruber, and Christopher R. Blake. Incentive Fees and Mutual Funds, April 2003, The Journal of Finance. Vol. LVIII,
34 No. 2, Page 802.
Key Takeaways
Alpha (Value Added) Is Not Dead
These Variabilities Reflect Both The Complexity and Dynamics Of The Market
Significant Value Added Can Be Gained In Select Asset Classes But Success Will
Depend on Manager Breadth, Skill and the Market
To Temper the Quest for Mediocrity Clients Can Align Their Managers with Well
Designed Incentive Based Fees
35 Source: Empirical Evidence Indicates a Positive Correlation Between the Inclusion of Performance Based Fees and Higher Alphas page 69 in Manager
Selection by Scott Stewart, Research Foundation of the CFA Institute, 2013.
Appendix
36
Institutional Managers Outperform
Using a dataset of $17 trillion of assets under management, we document
that actively managed institutional accounts outperformed strategy
benchmarks by 86 (42) basis points gross (net) during 20002012. In
return, asset managers collected $162 billion in fees per year for managing
29% of world capital.
We trace this outperformance to systematic deviations from the asset-class
benchmarks. The asset manager industry is therefore not just a passive
pass-through entity
Source: Institutional Performance and Smart Betas by J. Gerakos Juhani ,T. Linnainmaa, & A. Morse, November 28, 2016
We Find That the Average Mutual Fund Has Used This
Skill to Generate About $3.2 Million Per Year.
The total value the manager extracts from markets is equal to the amount of
money the fund charges in fees, minus any money it takes from investors: the
percentage fee multiplied by AUM plus the product of the return to investors in
excess of the benchmark and AUM. This quantity is the funds gross excess
return over its benchmark multiplied by assets under management, what we
term the value added of the fund.
Investors appear to be able to identify talent and compensate it: current
compensation predicts future performance.
Not only do better funds collect higher aggregate fees, but current aggregate
fees are a better predictor of future value added than past value added
To measure skill we take the product of the funds abnormal return (the return
before fees minus the benchmark return) and assets under management (AUM)
Source: Measuring Skill in the Mutual Fund Industry, by Jonathan Berk and J. van Binsbergen, Journal of Financial Economics, 2015, vol. 118, issue 1,
pages 1-20
44
Footnotes and References
Footnote 1
All data presented is from Hillsdales proprietary database unless indicated otherwise. This database consolidates
information from multiple vendors to support Hillsdales research, portfolio management and reporting activities.
All performance data shown in this presentation is gross of fees unless otherwise indicated.
Footnote 2
Performance and other data in this presentation are shown for illustrative purposes only. Backtested returns are
based on a quantitative testing where stocks are selected based on Hillsdales proprietary stock selection systems.
All Backtest returns are shown gross of fees and are calculated in Canadian or US dollars as indicated. No
representations are being made that the investment process will achieve similar returns on a going forward basis.
Investors should not consider the data included in the presentation as an indication, assurance, estimate or forecast
of future results. Actual returns may differ materially from the returns shown for reasons including, but not limited
to, investment restrictions and guidelines, fees and other expenses, cash holdings, timing of trade execution and
fluctuations in the market.
Footnote 3
Russell Investment Group is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks and copyrights related to the
Russell Indexes. Russell is a trademark of Russell Investment Group.
39
Harry S. Marmer
Harry S. Marmer, BBA, MBA, CFA, Partner. Prior to joining Hillsdale in 2008, Mr.
Marmer led the Canadian institutional business of Franklin Templeton Investments and
before that the institutional business at Russell Investment Group. He was also a
principal and co-leader of Mercer's Canadian Investment Consulting Practice. Before
this he was a Senior Investment Analyst at Sun Life Canada. Mr. Marmer is a frequent
conference speaker and has authored more than 47 articles and a book entitled,
"Perspectives in Investment Management." Currently, he continues to volunteer for the
CFA Institute and is a member of the Investment Committee of the Canadian Friends
of Hebrew University. Mr Marmer has served on a number of industry boards and was
past president of the Toronto CFA Society. He was awarded the Toronto CFA Societys
Research Award and received the Societys Volunteer of Distinction Award
40