Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
2008-2013
Uncommon Profits
By Raamdeo Agrawal
13 December 2013
Theme Study
18th Annual Wealth Creation Study www.motilaloswal.com
Theme Discussion Points
2
A simple mantra for Wealth Creation
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18th Annual Wealth Creation Study www.motilaloswal.com
Uncommon Wealth Creation #2
750
HDFC Bank Sensex - Re-based
600
450
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18th Annual Wealth Creation Study www.motilaloswal.com
What leads to Uncommon Wealth Creation?
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What is Emergence & Endurance?
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Uncommon Profit & Company Lifecycle
PAT
(a) Renewal
Post-Emergence struggle
for Endurance
(b) Decline
POINT OF
EMERGENCE
Pre-Emergence
struggle for survival
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Uncommon Profit Case Study #1
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Uncommon Profit Case Study #2
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Uncommon Profit Case Study #3
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Framework to identify Value Creators
Contribution of various factors to abnormal profits
Contributing factor High Performers Low Performers
Emergence Sustainability Emergence Sustainability
Year 2% 3% -7% -5%
Industry 37% 44% 12% 13%
Corporate-parent 18% 19% -4% 2%
Segment-specific 43% 34% 99% 90%
Source: Paper by Anita McGahan & Michael Porter
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Value Creators: Industry-level factors
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Value Creators: Industry-level factors
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Value Creators: Industry-level factors
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Value Creators: Industry-level factors
#3 Value Migration
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Value Creators: Industry-level factors
#4 Stability of industry
12000
11440
Baltic Freight Index
10000
Cyclicality makes industries risky
8000
5551
6000
4078
4000
2337
2000
1804
715
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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
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Value Creators: Industry-level factors
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Uncommon Wealth Creation
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Feb-10
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Aug-13
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Value Creators: Corporate-parent factors
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Value Creators: Company-specific factors
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Pitfalls to avoid in Emergence
#1 Pre-empting emergence
#2 Emergence during peak of good times
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Methodology for Emerging Value Creators
#1 Age criterion
Select listed companies below 25 years of age
#2 Meaningful Emergence
15% RoE for first time with minimum PAT size, say, Rs 10 crores
#3 View on corporate-parent/management
based on group performance, Annual Reports, payout policy, etc
#4 Avoid cyclicals
Incorporating stability of industry
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Backtesting during 2001 to 2008
Emerging Value Creators financial & stock market performance
Company Year of P/E (x) 5-year post emergence (%)
Emerg. in YoE PAT CAGR Price CAGR Rel Perf.
Shriram Transport 2001 1 56 85 60
Accelya Kale 2008 3 36 60 56
Shriram City Union 2004 3 45 70 58
GRUH Finance 2003 4 33 60 22
Plastiblends (I) 2004 4 1 4 -8
Manappuram Finance 2007 4 123 70 64
Havells India 2004 7 P to L 39 27
Cera Sanitaryware 2008 7 36 29 17
KPIT Tech 2004 8 36 4 -7
Blue Dart Express 2001 9 22 45 20
Titan Industries 2003 12 53 85 46
Hitachi Home 2006 12 14 22 11
Tata Elxsi 2001 16 20 23 -3
Emami 2007 18 31 33 27
Suprajit Engg. 2006 18 21 0 -12
IL&FS Invt Managers 2007 18 32 9 3
Asahi India Glass 2002 19 25 51 21
AVERAGE 10 24 41 24
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Backtesting during 2001 to 2008
Portfolio avg 17 24 32 41 24
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Backtesting during 2001 to 2008
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Emerging Value Creators to bet on now
Potential Value Creators by applying methodology for years 2009-13
(Rs crores) FY13 1HFY14 Nov-13
PAT PAT Gr. % RoE % PAT Gr. % Price Mkt Cap P/E (x)
With amplifiers
Bajaj Finserv 1,574 18 24 36 739 11,760 7
Bajaj Corp 161 38 35 15 231 3,410 19
Zydus Wellness 97 43 44 29 544 2,127 20
Symphony 59 11 29 27 408 1,427 23
Others
Cairn India 11,882 49 25 6 324 61,868 5
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Why Enduring Value Creators
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Methodology for Enduring Value Creators
#1 Quality & Longevity criteria
RoE >= 15% for each of the last 10 consecutive years
#2 View on corporate-parent/management
based on group performance, Annual Reports, payout policy, etc
#3 Growth
Last 3-year CAGR of at least 15%
#4 Value-enhancing growth
Postive delta RoE over the last 5 years
#5 Reasonable valuation
Not more than 50% premium to market
i.e. P/E typically not exceeding 30x
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Backtesting during 1999 to 2008
2008 Enduring Value Creators financial & stock market performance
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Enduring Value Creators to bet on now
Applying methodology for years 2004 to 2013; preferred bets highlighted
Company 2010-13 2003-13 P/E Price Return CAGR
PAT CAGR % Avg RoE % (x) (INR) 08-13 (%)
City Union Bank 28 23 7 49 25
Axis Bank 28 20 10 1,155 11
Suprajit Engg 24 31 11 39 34
Torrent Pharma 27 26 15 462 38
HCL Technologies 47 26 16 1,087 25
M & M Financial 36 22 17 296 28
Zydus Wellness 28 37 20 544 38
VST Industries 25 31 20 1,664 37
HDFC Bank 32 18 23 661 19
Astral Poly Technik 29 30 24 250 35
GRUH Finance 28 27 26 233 47
ITC 21 29 34 320 25
Hindustan Unilever 16 77 40 594 17
Page Industries 42 62 44 5,265 51
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Thank You !
&
Happy Investing For
Uncommon Profits