Working Group III Mitigation of Climate Change

Chapter 4

Sustainable Development and Equity



AreportacceptedbyWorkingGroupIIIoftheIPCCbutnotapprovedindetail.

Note:

ThisdocumentisthecopyeditedversionofthefinaldraftReport,dated17December2013,ofthe
Working Group III contribution to the IPCC 5th Assessment Report "Climate Change 2014:
MitigationofClimateChange"thatwasacceptedbutnotapprovedindetailbythe12thSessionof
WorkingGroupIIIandthe39thSessionoftheIPCCon12April2014inBerlin,Germany.Itconsists
ofthefullscientific,technicalandsocioeconomicassessmentundertakenbyWorkingGroupIII.

The Report should be read in conjunction with the document entitled Climate Change 2014:
MitigationofClimateChange.WorkingGroupIIIContributiontotheIPCC5thAssessmentReport
ChangestotheunderlyingScientific/TechnicalAssessmenttoensureconsistencywiththeapproved
Summary for Policymakers (WGIII: 12th/Doc. 2a, Rev.2) and presented to the Panel at its 39th
Session. This document lists the changes necessary to ensure consistency between the full Report
and the Summary for Policymakers, which was approved linebyline by Working Group III and
acceptedbythePanelattheaforementionedSessions.

Beforepublication,theReport(includingtext,figuresandtables)willundergofinalqualitycheckas
wellasanyerrorcorrectionasnecessary,consistentwiththeIPCCProtocolforAddressingPossible
Errors.PublicationoftheReportisforeseeninSeptember/October2014.

Disclaimer:

Thedesignationsemployedandthepresentationofmaterialonmapsdonotimplytheexpressionof
anyopinionwhatsoeveronthepartoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeconcerning
the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the
delimitationofitsfrontiersorboundaries.
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Chapter: 4
Title: SustainableDevelopmentandEquity
Author(s): CLAs: MarcFleurbaeyandSivanKartha
LAs: SimonBolwig,YokeLingChee,YingChen,EsteveCorbera,Franck
Lecocq,WolfgangLutz,MariaSilviaMuylaert,RichardB.Norgaard,
ChukwumerijeOkereke,AmbujSagar
CAs: PaulBaer,DonaldA.Brown,JosefaFrancisco,MichaelZwicky
Hauschild,MichaelJakob,HeikeSchroeder,JohnThgersen,Kevin
Urama
REs: LuizPinguelliRosa,MatthiasRuth,JayantSathaye

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SustainableDevelopmentandEquity

Contents

ExecutiveSummary............................................................................................................................4
4.1Introduction..................................................................................................................................7
4.1.1KeymessagesofpreviousIPCCreports................................................................................7
4.1.2Narrativefocusandkeymessages........................................................................................8
4.1.2.1Consumption,disparitiesandwellbeing......................................................................9
4.1.2.2Equityatthenationalandinternationalscales.............................................................9
4.1.2.3Buildinginstitutionsandcapacityforeffectivegovernance.......................................10
4.2Approachesandindicators.........................................................................................................11
4.2.1Sustainabilityandsustainabledevelopment(SD)...............................................................11
4.2.1.1Definingandmeasuringsustainability.........................................................................11
4.2.1.2Linkswithclimatechangeandclimatepolicy..............................................................13
4.2.2Equityanditsrelationtosustainabledevelopmentandclimatechange...........................13
4.3Determinants,driversandbarriers............................................................................................18
4.3.1Legacyofdevelopmentrelations........................................................................................18
4.3.2Governanceandpoliticaleconomy.....................................................................................19
4.3.3Populationanddemography...............................................................................................22
4.3.4Valuesandbehaviours........................................................................................................23
4.3.5Humanandsocialcapital....................................................................................................24
4.3.6Technology..........................................................................................................................25
4.3.7Naturalresources................................................................................................................27
4.3.8Financeandinvestment......................................................................................................28
4.4Production,trade,consumptionandwastepatterns................................................................29
4.4.1Consumptionpatterns,inequalityandenvironmentalimpact...........................................29
4.4.1.1Trendsinresourceconsumption.................................................................................29
4.4.1.2Consumerismandunequalconsumptionlevels..........................................................30
4.4.1.3Effectofnonincomefactorsonpercapitacarbonfootprint.....................................30
4.4.2Consumptionpatternsandcarbonaccounting...................................................................31
4.4.2.1ChoiceofGHGaccountingmethod.............................................................................31
4.4.2.2Carbonfootprinting(consumptionbasedGHGemissionsaccounting)......................31
4.4.2.3Productcarbonfootprinting........................................................................................32
4.4.2.4ConsumptionbasedandterritorialapproachestoGHGaccounting..........................32

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4.4.3SustainableconsumptionandproductionSCP................................................................34
4.4.3.1Sustainableconsumptionandlifestyle........................................................................34
4.4.3.2Consumersustainabilityattitudesandtherelationtobehaviour...............................35
4.4.3.3Sustainableproduction................................................................................................36
4.4.4Relationshipbetweenconsumptionandwellbeing...........................................................38
4.5Developmentpathways..............................................................................................................39
4.5.1Definitionandexamples......................................................................................................39
4.5.2Transitionbetweenpathways.............................................................................................41
4.5.2.1Pathdependenceandlockins.....................................................................................41
4.5.2.2Examplesandlessonsfromthetechnologytransitionliterature................................42
4.5.2.3Economicmodellingoftransitionsbetweenpathways...............................................43
4.6Mitigativecapacityandmitigation,andlinkstoadaptivecapacityandadaptation..................45
4.6.1Mitigationandadaptationmeasures,capacities,anddevelopmentpathways.................45
4.6.2Equityandburdensharinginthecontextofinternationalcooperationonclimate..........48
4.6.2.1Equityprinciplespertinenttoburdensharinginaninternationalclimateregime.....48
4.6.2.2Frameworksforequitableburdensharing..................................................................51
4.7Integrationofframingissuesinthecontextofsustainabledevelopment................................53
4.7.1Riskanduncertaintyinsustainabilityevaluation................................................................53
4.7.2Socioeconomicevaluation.................................................................................................54
4.8Implicationsforsubsequentchapters........................................................................................55
4.8.1Threelevelsofanalysisofsustainabilityconsequencesofclimatepolicyoptions.............55
4.8.2Sustainabilityandequityissuesinsubsequentchapters....................................................56
4.9Gapsinknowledgeanddata......................................................................................................61
4.10FrequentlyAskedQuestions.....................................................................................................63
References........................................................................................................................................64

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ExecutiveSummary
Sincethefirstassessmentreport,theIPCChasconsideredissuesofsustainabledevelopment(SD)
andequity:acknowledgingtheimportancetoclimatedecisionmaking,andprogressivelyexpanding
thescopetoinclude:thecobenefitsofclimateactionsforSDandequity,therelevanceoflifestyle
andbehaviour,therelevanceoftechnologicalchoices,therelevanceofproceduralequityto
effectivedecisionmaking,andtherelevanceofethicalframeworksandequitableburdensharingin
assessingclimateresponses.ThisAssessmentReportfurtherexploreskeydimensionsofSDand
equity,highlightingthesignificanceofdisparitiesacrossdifferentregionsandgroups,andtheways
inwhichdesigningaclimatepolicyisacomponentofawiderangingsocietalchoiceofa
developmentpath[Section4.1,4.2].
Sustainabledevelopment,acentralframingissueinthisAssessmentReport,isintimately
connectedtoclimatechange(highconfidence).SDisvariablyconceivedasdevelopmentthat
preservestheinterestsoffuturegenerations,thatpreservestheecosystemservicesonwhich
continuedhumanflourishingdepends,orthatharmonizesthecoevolutionofthreepillars
(economic,social,environmental)[4.2].First,theclimatethreatconstrainspossibledevelopment
paths,andsufficientlydisruptiveclimatechangecouldprecludeanyprospectforasustainable
future(mediumevidence,highagreement).Thus,astableclimateisonecomponentofSD.Second,
therearesynergiesandtradeoffsbetweenclimateresponsesandbroaderSDgoals,becausesome
climateresponsesgeneratecobenefitsforhumanandeconomicdevelopment,whileotherscan
haveadversesideeffectsandgeneraterisks(robustevidence,highagreement).Thesecobenefits
andrisksarestudiedinthesectorchaptersofthisreport,alongwithmeasuresandstrategiesto
optimizethem.Optionsforequitableburdensharingcanreducethepotentialforthecostsof
climateactiontoconstraindevelopment(mediumevidence,highagreement).Third,atamore
fundamentallevel,thecapacitiesunderlyinganeffectiveclimateresponseoverlapstronglywith
capacitiesforSD(mediumevidence,highagreement)anddesigninganeffectiveclimatepolicy
involvesmainstreamingclimateinthedesignofcomprehensiveSDstrategiesandthinkingthrough
thegeneralorientationofdevelopment(mediumevidence,mediumagreement)[4.2,4.5].
EquityisanintegraldimensionofSD(highconfidence).First,intergenerationalequityunderliesthe
conceptofsustainability.Intragenerationalequityisalsooftenconsideredanintrinsiccomponent
ofSD.Intheparticularcontextofinternationalclimatepolicydiscussions,severalargumentssupport
givingequityanimportantrole:amoraljustificationthatdrawsuponethicalprinciples;alegal
justificationthatappealstoexistingtreatycommitmentsandsoftlawagreementstocooperateon
thebasisofstatedequityprinciples;andaneffectivenessjustificationthatarguesthatafair
arrangementismorelikelytobeagreedinternationallyandsuccessfullyimplementeddomestically
(mediumevidence,mediumagreement).Arelativelysmallsetofcoreequityprinciplesserveasthe
basisformostdiscussionsofequitableburdensharinginaclimateregime:responsibility(forGHG
emissions),capacity(abilitytopayformitigation,butsometimesotherdimensionsofmitigative
capacity),therighttodevelopment,andequality(ofteninterpretedasanequalentitlementtoemit)
[4.2,4.6].
Whileitispossibletoenvisionanevolutiontowardequitableandsustainabledevelopment,its
underlyingdeterminantsarealsodeeplyembeddedinexistingsocietalpatternsthatare
unsustainableandhighlyinertial(highconfidence).Ausefulsetofdeterminantsfromwhichto
examinetheprospectsforandimpedimentstoSDandequityare:thelegacyofdevelopment
relations;governanceandpoliticaleconomy;populationanddemography;valuesandbehaviour;
humanandsocialcapital;technology;naturalresourceendowments;andfinanceandinvestment.
Theevolutionofeachofthesedeterminantsasadriver(ratherthanbarrier)toaSDtransitionis
conceivable,butalsoposesprofoundchallenges(mediumevidence,mediumagreement)[4.3].

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GoverningatransitiontowardaneffectiveclimateresponseandSDpathwayisachallenge
involvingrethinkingourrelationtonature,accountingformultiplegenerationsandinterests
(includingthosebasedonendowmentsinnaturalresources),overlappingenvironmentalissues,
amongactorswithwidelyunequalcapacities,resources,andpoliticalpower,anddivergent
conceptionsofjustice(highconfidence).Keydebatedissuesincludearticulatingtopdownand
bottomupapproaches,engagingparticipationofdiversecountriesandactors,creatingprocedurally
equitableformsofdecentralizationandcombiningmarketmechanismswithgovernmentaction,all
inaparticularpoliticaleconomiccontext(robustevidence,highagreement)[4.3].
Technologyandfinancebotharestrongdeterminantsoffuturesocietalpaths,andwhilesocietys
currentsystemsofallocatingresourcesandprioritizingeffortstowardinvestmentandinnovation
areinmanywaysrobustanddynamic,therearealsosomefundamentaltensionswiththe
underlyingobjectivesofSD(highconfidence).First,thetechnologicalinnovationandfinancial
systemsarehighlyresponsivetoshorttermmotivations,andaresensitivetobroadersocialand
environmentalcostsandbenefitsonlytotheoftenlimitedextentthatthesecostsandbenefits
areinternalizedbyregulation,taxation,lawsandsocialnorms.Second,whilethesesystemsare
quiteresponsivetomarketdemandthatissupportedbypurchasingpower,theyareonlyindirectly
responsivetoneeds,particularlyofthoseoftheworld'spoor,andtheyoperatewithatimehorizon
thatdisregardspotentialneedsoffuturegenerations(mediumevidence,mediumagreement)[4.3].
Enhancinghumancapitalbasedonindividualknowledgeandskills,andsocialcapitalbasedon
mutuallybeneficialformalandinformalrelationshipsisimportantforfacilitatingatransition
towardsustainabledevelopment(mediumevidence,highagreement).Socialdilemmasarisein
whichshorttermindividualinterestsconflictwithlongtermsocialinterests,withaltruisticvalues
beingfavourabletoSD.However,theformationofvaluesandtheirtranslationintobehavioursis
mediatedbymanyfactors,includingtheavailablesetofmarketchoicesandlifestyles,thetenorof
dominantinformationsources(includingadvertisementsandpopularculture),thecultureand
prioritiesofformalandcivilinstitutions,andprevailinggovernancemode(mediumevidence,
mediumagreement).Thedemographictransitiontowardlowfertilityratesisusuallyviewed
favorably,thoughanageingpopulationcreateseconomicandsocialchallenges,andmigrationsdue
toclimateimpactsmayexacerbatetensions(mediumevidence,mediumagreement)[4.3,4.4].
Theglobalconsumptionofgoodsandserviceshasincreaseddramaticallyoverthelastdecades,in
bothabsoluteandpercapitaterms,andisakeydriverofenvironmentaldegradation,including
globalwarming(highconfidence).Thistrendinvolvesthespreadofhighconsumptionlifestylesin
somecountriesandsubregions,whileinotherpartsoftheworldlargepopulationscontinuetolive
inpoverty.Therearehighdisparitiesinconsumptionbothbetweenandwithincountries(robust
evidence,highagreement)[4.4].
Twobasictypesofdecouplingoftenariseinthecontextofatransitiontowardsustainable
development:thedecouplingofmaterialresourceconsumption(includingfossilfuels)and
environmentalimpact(includingclimatechange)fromeconomicgrowth,andthedecouplingof
economicgrowthfromhumanwellbeing(highconfidence).Thefirsttypethedematerializationof
theeconomy,i.e.,ofconsumptionandproductionisgenerallyconsideredcrucialformeetingSD
andequitygoals,includingmitigationofclimatechange.Productionbased(territorial)accounting
suggeststhatsomedecouplingofimpactsfromeconomicgrowthhasoccurred,especiallyin
industrializedcountries,butitsextentissignificantlydiminishedbasedonaconsumptionbased
accounting(robustevidence,mediumagreement).Consumptionbasedemissionsaremorestrongly
associatedwithGrossDomesticProduct(GDP)thanproductionbasedemissions,becausewealthier
countriesgenerallysatisfyahighershareoftheirfinalconsumptionofproductsthroughnetimports
comparedtopoorercountries.Ultimately,absolutelevelsofresourceuseandenvironmental
impactincludingGHGemissionsgenerallycontinuetorisewithGDP(robustevidence,high
agreement),thoughgreatvariationsbetweencountrieshighlighttheimportanceofotherfactors

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suchasgeography,energysystem,productionmethods,wastemanagement,householdsize,diet
andlifestyle.Thesecondtypeofdecouplingofhumanwellbeingfromeconomicgrowthisa
morecontroversialgoalthanthefirst.Thereareethicalcontroversiesaboutthemeasureofwell
beingandtheuseofsubjectivedataforthispurpose(robustevidence,mediumagreement).There
arealsoempiricalcontroversiesabouttherelationshipbetweensubjectivewellbeingandincome,
withsomerecentstudiesacrosscountriesfindingaclearrelationshipbetweenaveragelevelsoflife
satisfactionandpercapitaincome,whiletheevidenceaboutthelongtermrelationshipbetween
satisfactionandincomeislessconclusiveandquitediverseamongcountries(mediumevidence,
mediumagreement).Studiesofemotionalwellbeingdoidentifyclearsatiationpointsbeyondwhich
furtherincreasesinincomenolongerenhanceemotionalwellbeing(mediumevidence,medium
agreement).Furthermore,incomeinequalityhasbeenfoundtohaveamarkednegativeeffecton
averagesubjectivewellbeing,duetoperceivedunfairnessandunderminedtrustofinstitutions
amonglowincomegroups(mediumevidence,mediumagreement)[4.4].
Understandingtheimpactofdevelopmentpathsonemissionsandmitigativecapacity,and,more
generally,howdevelopmentpathscanbemademoresustainableandmoreequitableinthe
futurerequiresindepthanalysisofthemechanismsthatunderpinthesepaths(highconfidence).
Ofparticularimportancearetheprocessesthatmaygeneratepathdependenceandlockins,
notablyincreasingreturnsbutalsouseofscarceresources,switchingcosts,negativeexternalities
orcomplementaritiesbetweenoutcomes(robustevidence,highagreement)[4.5,4.6].Thestudyof
transitionsbetweenpathwaysisanemergingfield,notablyinthecontextoftechnologytransitions.
Yetanalyzinghowtotransitiontoasustainable,lowemissionpathwayremainsamajorscientific
challenge.Itwouldbeaidedbymodelswithaholisticframeworkencompassingtheeconomy,
society(inparticularthedistributionofresourcesandwellbeing),andtheenvironment,take
accountofrelevanttechnicalconstraintsandtrends,andexplorealongtermhorizonwhile
simultaneouslycapturingprocessesrelevantfortheshorttermandthekeyuncertainties(medium
evidence,mediumagreement)[4.5,4.7].
MitigationandadaptationmeasurescanstronglyaffectbroaderSDandequityobjectives,anditis
thususefultounderstandtheirbroaderimplications(highconfidence).Buildingbothmitigative
capacityandadaptivecapacityreliestoaprofoundextentonthesamefactorsasthosethatare
integraltoequitableandsustainabledevelopment(mediumevidence,highagreement),and
equitableburdensharingcanenhancethesecapacitieswheretheyaremostfragile[4.6].This
chapterfocusesonexaminingwaysinwhichthebroaderobjectivesofequitableandsustainable
developmentprovideapolicyframeforaneffective,robust,andlongtermresponsetotheclimate
problem.[4.8].

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4.1 Introduction
4.1.1 KeymessagesofpreviousIPCCreports
Thischapterseekstoplaceclimatechange,andclimatechangemitigationinparticular,inthe
contextofequityandSD.PriorIPCCassessmentshavesoughttodothisaswell,progressively
expandingthescopeofassessmenttoincludebroaderandmoreinsightfulreflectionsonthepolicy
relevantcontributionsofacademicliterature.
TheIPCCFirstAssessmentReport(FAR)(IPCC,1990)underscoredtherelevanceofequityandSDto
climatepolicy.Mandatedtoidentifypossibleelementsforinclusioninaframeworkconventionon
climatechange,theIPCCprominentlyputforwardtheendorsementandelaborationofthe
conceptofsustainabledevelopmentfornegotiatorstoconsideraspartoftheConventions
Preamble.Itnotedaskeyissueshowtoaddressequitablytheconsequencesforallandwhether
obligationsshouldbeequitablydifferentiatedaccordingtocountriesrespectiveresponsibilitiesfor
causingandcombatingclimatechangeandtheirlevelofdevelopment.Thissetthestageforthe
ensuingUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC)negotiations,which
ultimatelyincludedexplicitappealstoequityandSD,includinginitsPreamble,itsPrinciples(Article
2),itsObjective(Article3),anditsCommitments(Article4).
TheIPCCSecondAssessmentReport(SAR)(IPCC,1995),publishedaftertheUNFCCCwassigned,
maintainedthisfocusonequityandSD.ItreflectedagrowingappreciationfortheprospectsforSD
cobenefitsandreiteratedthepolicyrelevanceofequityandSD.Itdidthismostvisiblyinaspecial
sectionoftheSummaryforPolicymakerspresentingInformationRelevanttoInterpretingArticle2
oftheUNFCCC,includingEquityandsocialconsiderationsandEconomicdevelopmentto
proceedinasustainablemanner.Notably,theSARaddedanemphasisonproceduralequity
throughalegitimateprocessthatempowersallactorstoeffectivelyparticipate,andontheneedto
buildcapacitiesandstrengtheninstitutions,particularlyindevelopingcountries.
TheIPCCSpecialReportonEmissionScenarios(SRES)(Nakicenovicetal.,2000)demonstratedthat
broaderSDgoalscancontributeindirectly,yetsubstantially,toreducingemissions.ThisIPCC
contributionreflectedachangeinthescientificliterature,whichhadinrecentyearsexpandedits
discussionofSDtoencompassanalysesoflifestyles,culture,andbehaviour,complementingits
traditionaltechnoeconomicanalyses.Italsoreflectedarecognitionthateconomicgrowth
(especiallyascurrentlymeasured)isnotthesolegoalofsocieties.TheSRESthusprovidedinsights
intohowpolicyinterventioncandecoupleeconomicgrowthfromemissionsandwellbeingfrom
economicgrowth,showingthatbothformsofdecouplingareimportantelementsofatransitiontoa
worldwithlowgreenhousegas(GHG)emissions.
TheIPCCThirdAssessmentReport(TAR)(IPCC,2001)deepenedtheconsiderationofbroaderSD
objectivesinassessingresponsestrategies.Perhapsowingtoagrowingappreciationfortheseverity
oftheclimatechallenge,theTARstressedtheneedforanambitiousandencompassingresponse,
andwasthusmoreattentivetotheriskofclimatefocusedmeasuresconflictingwithbasic
developmentaspirations.Itthusarticulatedthefundamentalequitychallengeofclimatechangeas
ensuringthatneithertheimpactofclimatechangenorthatofmitigationpoliciesexacerbates
existinginequitiesbothwithinandacrossnations,specificallybecauserestrictionsonemissions
willcontinuetobeviewedbymanypeopleindevelopingcountriesasyetanotherconstraintonthe
developmentprocess(SeeBox4.1forfurtherdiscussionoftherelationshipbetweenclimate
changeanddevelopmentchallengesindevelopingcountries.).TheTARrecognizedtheneedto
deepentheanalysisofequitableburdensharinginordertoavoidunderminingprospectsforSDin
developingcountries.Moregenerally,theTARobservedthatequitableburdensharingisnotsolely
anethicalmatter.Evenfromarationalactorgametheoreticperspective,anagreementinwhichthe
burdenisequitablysharedismorelikelytobesignedbyalargenumberofcountries,andthustobe
moreeffectiveandefficient.

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TheIPCCFourthAssessmentReport(AR4)(IPCC,2007)furtherexpandedtheconsiderationof
broaderSDobjectives.Itstressedtheimportanceofcivilsocietyandothernongovernmentactorsin
designingclimatepolicyandequitableSDstrategiesgenerally.TheAR4focusedmorestronglyonthe
distributionalimplicationsofclimatepolicies,notingthatconventionalclimatepolicyanalysisthatis
basedtoonarrowlyontraditionalutilitarianorcostbenefitframeworkswillneglectcriticalequity
issues.Theseoversightsincludehumanrightsimplicationsandmoralimperatives;thedistributionof
costsandbenefitsofagivensetofpolicies,andthefurtherdistributionalinequitiesthatarisewhen
thepoorhavelimitedscopetoinfluencepolicy.Thisisparticularlyproblematic,theAR4notes,in
integratedassessmentmodel(IAM)analysesofoptimalmitigationpathways,becauseclimate
impactsdonotaffectthepoorexclusivelythroughchangesinincomes.Nordotheysatisfactorily
accountforuncertaintyandrisk,whichthepoortreatdifferentlythantherich.Thepoorhavehigher
riskaversionandloweraccesstoassetsandfinancialmechanismsthatbufferagainstshocks.The
AR4wentontooutlinealternativeethicalframeworksincludingrightsbasedandcapabilitiesbased
approaches,suggestinghowtheycaninformclimatepolicydecisions.Inparticular,theAR4
discussedtheimplicationsofthesedifferentframeworksforequitableinternationalburdensharing.
TheIPCCSpecialReportonRenewableEnergySourcesandClimateChangeMitigation(SRREN)(IPCC,
2011)deepenedtheconsiderationofbroaderSDobjectivesinassessingrenewableenergyoptions,
notingparticularlythatwhilesynergiescanarise(forexample,helpingtoexpandaccesstoenergy
services,increaseenergysecurity,andreducesomeenvironmentalpressures),therecanalsobe
tradeoffs(suchasincreasedpressureonlandresources,andaffordability)andthesemustbe
negotiatedinamannersensitivetoequityconsiderations.
TheIPCCSpecialReportonManagingtheRisksofExtremeEventsandDisasterstoAdvanceClimate
ChangeAdaptation(SREX)(IPCC2012a)highlightedkeyfurtherdimensionsofSDandequity,
includingthedistinctionandinterplaybetweenincrementalandtransformativechangesbothof
whicharenecessaryforaneffectiveclimatepolicyresponse,andemphasizedthediversityofvalues
thatunderliedecisionmaking,e.g.,ahumanrightsframeworkvs.utilitariancostbenefitanalysis.

4.1.2 Narrativefocusandkeymessages
InkeepingwiththepreviousIPCCassessments,thischapterconsidersSDandequityasmattersof
policyrelevanceforclimatechangedecisionmakers.Thechapterexaminesthewaysinwhich
climatechangeisinfactinextricablylinkedwithSDandequity,anditdoessowiththeaimof
drawingpolicyrelevantconclusionsregardingequitableandsustainableresponsestoclimate
change.
Inonedirection,thelinkisselfevident:aneffectiveclimateresponseisnecessaryforequitableand
sustainabledevelopmenttooccur.Thedisruptionsthatclimatechangewouldcauseintheabsence
ofaneffectivesocietalresponsearesufficientlysevere(seeAR5WGIandWGII)toseverely
compromisedevelopment,eventakingintoaccountfuturesocietiesabilitytoadapt(Shaliziand
Lecocq,2010).Noristhisdevelopmentlikelytobeequitable,asanincreasinglyinhospitableclimate
willmostseriouslyunderminethefutureprospectsofthosenations,communities,andindividuals
thatareingreatestneedofdevelopment.Withoutaneffectiveresponsetoclimatechange,
includingbothtimelymitigationandproactiveadaptation,developmentcanbeneithersustainable
norequitable.
Inrecentyears,theacademiccommunityhascomeincreasinglytoappreciatetheextenttowhichSD
andequityarealsoneededasframeworksforassessingandprioritizingclimateresponses:giventhe
strongtradeoffsandsynergiesbetweentheoptionsforaclimateresponseandSD,thedesignofan
effectiveclimateresponsemustaccordwiththeobjectivesfordevelopmentandequityandexploit
thesynergies.Aclimatestrategythatdoesnotdosorunstheriskeitherofbeingineffectiveforlack
ofconsensusandearnestimplementationorofjeopardizingSDjustaswouldunabatedclimate

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change.Therefore,ashifttowardmoreequitableandsustainablemodesofdevelopmentmay
providetheonlycontextinwhichaneffectiveclimateresponsecanberealized.
Thescientificcommunityiscomingtounderstandthatclimatechangeisbutoneexampleofhow
humankindispressingupagainstitsplanetarylimits(MillenniumEcosystemAssessment,2005;
Rockstrmetal.,2009a).Technicalmeasurescancertainlyhelpintheneartermtoalleviateclimate
change.However,thecomprehensiveanddurablestrategiessocietyneedsarethosethatrecognize
thatclimatechangesharesitsrootcauseswithotherdimensionsoftheglobalsustainabilitycrisis,
andthatwithoutaddressingtheserootcauses,robustsolutionsmaynotbeaccessible.
Thischapter,andmanypartsofthisreport,uncoverswaysinwhichabroaderagendaofSDand
equitymaysupportandenableaneffectivesocietalresponsetotheclimatechallenge,by
establishingthebasisbywhichmitigativeandadaptivecapacitycanbebuiltandsustained.In
examiningthisperspective,thischapterfocusesonseveralbroadthemes.

4.1.2.1 Consumption,disparities,andwellbeing
Thefirstthemerelatestowellbeingandconsumption.Therelationshipbetweenconsumption
levelsandenvironmentalpressures,includingGHGemissions,haslongbeenakeyconcernforSD,
withagrowingfocusonhighconsumptionlifestylesinparticularandconsumptiondisparities.A
significantpartoftheliteraturedevelopsmethodologiesforassessingtheenvironmentalimpacts
acrossnationalboundariesofconsumption,throughconsumptionbasedaccountingandGHG
footprintanalysis.Importantresearchisnowalsoemergingontherelationshipbetweenwellbeing
andconsumption,andhowtomoderateconsumptionanditsimpactswithouthinderingwellbeing
andindeed,whileenhancingit.Moreresearchisnowavailableontheimportanceofbehaviour,
lifestyles,andculture,andtheirrelationshiptooverconsumption(Sections4.3,4.4).
Researchisemergingtohelpunderstandunderconsumption,i.e.,povertyanddeprivation,andits
impactsonwellbeingmorebroadly,andspecificallyonthemeansbywhichitundermines
mitigativeandadaptivecapacity(WGIIChapter20).Energypovertyisonecriticalexample,linked
directlytoclimatechange,ofunderconsumptionthatiswellcorrelatedwithweakenedlivelihoods,
lackofresilience,andlimitedmitigativeandadaptivecapacity.Overcomingunderconsumptionand
reversingoverconsumption,whilemaintainingandadvancinghumanwellbeing,arefundamental
dimensionsofSD,andareequallycriticaltoresolvingtheclimateproblem(Sections4.5,4.6).

4.1.2.2 Equityatthenationalandinternationalscales
Giventhedisparitiesevidentinconsumptionpatterns,thedistributionalimplicationsofclimate
responsestrategiesarecriticallyimportant.Asrecenthistoryshows,understandinghowpolicies
affectdifferentsegmentsofthepopulationisessentialtodesigningandimplementingpolitically
acceptableandeffectivenationalclimateresponsestrategies.Atransitionperceivedasjustwould
attractagreaterlevelofpublicsupportforthesubstantialtechnoeconomic,institutional,and
lifestyleshiftsneededtoreduceemissionssubstantiallyandenableadaptiveresponses.
Attheinternationallevel,anequitableregimewithfairburdensharingislikelytobeakeycondition
foraneffectiveglobalresponse(Sections4.2,4.6).Giventheurgencyoftheclimatechallenge,a
ratherrapidtransitionwillberequirediftheglobaltemperatureriseistoremainbelowthe
politicallydiscussedtargets,suchas1.5Cor2Coverpreindustriallevels,withglobalemissions
possiblypeakingassoonas2020(seeWGI,Figure6.25).Particularlyinasituationcallingfora
concertedglobaleffort,themostpromisingresponseisacooperativeapproachthatwouldquickly
requirehumanitytothinklikeasocietyofpeople,notlikeacollectionofindividualstates(Victor,
1998).
Whilescientificassessmentscannotdefinewhatequityisandhowequitableburdensharingshould
beimplementingtheConventionandclimatepoliciesingeneral,theycanhelpilluminatethe

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implicationsofalternativechoicesandtheirethicalbasis(Section4.6,alsoSections3.2,3.3,6.3.6,
13.4.3).

4.1.2.3 Buildinginstitutionsandcapacityforeffectivegovernance
Whilethereisstrongevidencethatatransitiontoasustainableandequitablepathistechnically
feasible(seeSections6.1.2,6.3),chartinganeffectiveandviablecoursethroughtheclimate
challengeisnotmerelyatechnicalexercise.Itwillinvolvemyriadandsequentialdecisions,among
statesandcivilsocietyactors,supportedbythebroadestpossibleconstituencies(Section4.3).Such
aprocessbenefitsfromtheeducationandempowermentofdiverseactorstoparticipateinsystems
ofdecisionmakingthataredesignedandimplementedwithproceduralequityasadeliberate
objective.Thisappliesatthenationalaswellasinternationallevels,whereeffectivegovernance
relatingtoglobalcommonresources,inparticular,isnotyetmature.
Anygivenapproachtoaddressingtheclimatechallengehaspotentialwinnersandlosers.The
politicalfeasibilityofthatapproachwilldependstronglyonthedistributionofpower,resources,and
decisionmakingauthorityamongthepotentialwinnersandlosers.Inaworldcharacterizedby
profounddisparities,procedurallyequitablesystemsofengagement,decisionmaking,and
governanceappearneededtoenableapolitytocometoequitableandsustainablesolutionstothe
sustainabledevelopmentchallenge.
Box 4.1 Sustainable development and climate change mitigation in developing countries

Theinterconnectednessofclimatechange,sustainabledevelopment,andequityposesserious
challengesfordevelopingcountriesbutitalsopresentsopportunities.
Developingcountriesareconfrontedbyadauntingmitigationchallengeinthemidstofpressing
developmentneeds.Developingcountryemissionscomprisedmorethanhalfofglobalemissionsin
2010,andgrewduringtheprecedingdecadebyanamountthataccountedforthetotalglobal
emissionsrise(JRC/PBL(2012),IEA(2012),seeAnnexII.9;seeSection5.3).Intheabsenceof
concertedmitigationactions,thecomingdecadeswouldseethistrendprolonged,withacontinued
growthinglobalemissionsdrivenpredominantlybydevelopingcountriesrisingemissions(see
Section6.3).Thistrendistheunsurprisingoutcomeoftherecenteconomicgrowthinmany
developingcountries.Theincreaseinemissionscoincidedwithanumberofpositivedevelopments:
overthepastdecade,theoverallpovertyratehasdeclined,maternalandchildmortalityhavefallen,
theprevalenceofseveralpreventablediseaseshasdecreased,andaccesstosafedrinkingwaterand
sanitationhasexpanded,whiletheHumanDevelopmentIndex(HDI)acrossnationshasrisenandits
convergencehasbecomemorepronounced.ThisriseoftheSouthhasbeentermed
unprecedentedinitsspeedandscale[...]affectingahundredtimesasmanypeopleasthe
IndustrialRevolutionandsettinginmotionadramaticrebalancingofeconomicandgeopolitical
forces(UnitedNations,2011a;UnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme,2013).
Notwithstandingthesegains,furtherdevelopmentalprogressisurgentlyneededthroughoutthe
developingworld.Morethan1.5billionpeopleremaininmultidimensionalpoverty,energy
insecurityisstillwidespread,inequalityofincomeandaccesstosocialservicesispersistentlyhigh,
andtheenvironmentalresourcebaseonwhichhumansrelyisdeterioratinginmultipleways
(MillenniumEcosystemAssessment,2005;Bazilianetal.,2010;UnitedNationsDevelopment
Programme,2013).Moreover,unavoidableclimatechangewillamplifythechallengesof
development:climateimpactsareexpectedtosloweconomicgrowthandexacerbatepoverty,and
currentfailurestoaddressemergingimpactsarealreadyerodingthebasisforsustainable
development(WGIISPM).
Thus,thechallengeconfrontingdevelopingcountriesistopreserveandbuildonthedevelopmental
achievementstodate,sharingthembroadlyandequitablyacrosstheirpopulations,buttodosovia
asustainabledevelopmentpathwaythatdoesnotreproducethefossilfuelbasedandemissions

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intensiveconventionalpathwaybywhichthedevelopedworldmovedfrompovertytoprosperity.
Facedwiththisdilemma,developingcountrieshavesoughtevidencethatsuchalternative
developmentpathwaysexist,lookinginparticulartodevelopedcountriestotaketheleadduringthe
twodecadessincetheUNFCCCwasnegotiated.Somesuchevidencehasemerged,intheformofa
varietyofincipientclimatepolicyexperiments(seeSection15.6,15.7)thatappeartohave
generatedsomeinnovationinlowcarbontechnologies(seeSection4.4)andmodestlycurbed
emissionsinsomecountries(seeSection5.3).
Developingcountrieshavesteppedforwardwithsignificantactionstoaddressclimatechange,but
willneedtobuildmitigativeandadaptivecapacityiftheyaretorespondyetmoreeffectively(see
Section4.6).Morebroadly,theunderlyingdeterminantsofdevelopmentpathwaysindeveloping
countriesareoftennotalignedtowardasustainablepathway(seeSections4.3,4.5).Atthesame
time,developingcountriesareinsomewayswellpositionedtoshifttowardsustainablepathways:
mostdevelopingcountriesarestillintheprocessofbuildingtheirurbanandindustrialinfrastructure
andcanavoidlockin(seeSections4.5,5.6).Manyarealsointheprocessofestablishingthecultural
normsandlifestylesofanemergingmiddleclass,andcandosowithoutreproducingthe
consumeristvaluesofmanydevelopedcountries(4.3,4.4).Somebarriers,suchaslackofaccessto
financialandtechnologicalresources,canbeovercomethroughinternationalcooperationbasedon
principlesofequityandfairburdensharing(seeSections4.6,6.3).

4.2 Approachesandindicators
ThissectionmapsoutthevariousconceptualapproachestotheissuesofSD(4.2.1),equity(4.2.2),
andtheirlinkagestoclimatechangeandclimatepolicy.

4.2.1 Sustainabilityandsustainabledevelopment(SD)

4.2.1.1 Definingandmeasuringsustainability
ThemostfrequentlyquoteddefinitionofSDisdevelopmentthatmeetstheneedsofthepresent
withoutcompromisingtheabilityoffuturegenerationstomeettheirownneeds,fromthe
BrundtlandReport(WorldCommissiononEnvironmentandDevelopment,1987).Thisdefinition
acknowledgesatensionbetweensustainabilityanddevelopment(Jabareen,2006),andthat
developmentobjectivesaimatmeetingbasicneedsforallcitizensandsecuringthemina
sustainablemanner(Murdiyarso,2010).OneofthefirstdefinitionsofSD(PrescottAllen,1980)
referstoadevelopmentprocessthatiscompatiblewiththepreservationofecosystemsandspecies.
ApopularconceptualizationofSDgoesbeyondsecuringneedsandpreservingtheenvironmentand
involvesthreepillarsorthreebottomlinesofsustainability:environmental,economic,andsocial
aspects(Dobson,1991;Elkington,1998;FlintandDanner,2001;Popeetal.,2004;Sneddonetal.,
2006;Murdiyarso,2010;Okereke,2011).Thereissomevariationinthearticulationofthethree
spheres,withsomescholarsarguingforanequalappraisaloftheircoevolutionandmutual
interactions,andotherspositingahierarchywitheconomicactivitiesembeddedinthesocialmatrix,
whichisitselfgroundedintheecosphere(Levin,2000;Fischeretal.,2007).ThisbroadSDframework
isequallyrelevantforrichcountriesconcernedwithgrowth,wellbeing,humandevelopment,and
lifestyles.
Awellknowndistinctionopposesweaksustainabilitytostrongsustainabilityapproaches
(Neumayer,2010).Theformerreliesontheassumptionthathumanmadecapitalcanreplace
naturalresourcesandecosystemserviceswithahighdegreeofsubstitutability.Strongsustainability,
incontrast,takestheviewthatcertaincriticalnaturalstockssuchastheclimatesystemand
biodiversitycannotbereplacedbyhumanmadecapitalandmustbemaintained.Weak
sustainabilityisoftenbelievedtobeinherenttoeconomicmodellingthataggregatesallformsof
capitaltogether(DietzandNeumayer,2007),buteconomicmodelsandindicatorscanaccommodate

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anydegreeofsubstitutabilitybetweendifferentformsofcapital(FleurbaeyandBlanchet,2013).The
linkagebetweenstrongsustainabilityandIAMsisdiscussedinSathayeetal.(2011).Adifferentbut
relatedissueiswhetheroneshouldevaluatedevelopmentpathsonlyintermsofhumanwellbeing,
whichdependsontheenvironmentservices(MillenniumEcosystemAssessment,2005),oralso
accountfornaturalsystemsasintrinsicallyvaluable(McShane,2007;Attfield,2008).
Sustainabilityiscloselyrelatedtoresilience(AR5WII2.5and20.220.6,Folkeetal.,(2010),Gallopin,
(2006),Goerneretal.,(2009))andvulnerability(Kates,2001;ClarkandDickson,2003;
IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange,2012a).Akeypremiseofthisdirectionofresearchis
thatsocialandbiophysicalprocessesareinterdependentandcoevolving(PolskyandEakin,2011).
Thebiosphereitselfisacomplexadaptivesystem,themonitoringofwhichisstillperfectible(Levin,
2000;Thuiller,2007).Criticalperspectivesontheseconcepts,whenappliedtoSDanalysis,canbe
foundinTurner(2010)andCannonandMllerMahn(2010).
Althoughtherearevariousconceptionsofsustainabilityintheliterature,thereareinternationally
agreedprinciplesofSDadoptedbyheadsofstatesandgovernmentsatthe1992UNConferenceon
EnvironmentandDevelopment(UNCED)andreaffirmedatsubsequentreviewandimplementation
conferences(UnitedNations,1992a,1997,2002,2012a).Akeyguidingprincipleis:Therightto
developmentmustbefulfilledsoastoequitablymeetdevelopmentalandenvironmentalneedsof
presentandfuturegenerations(1992RioDeclarationPrinciple3).TheRioprincipleswere
reaffirmedattheJune2012summitlevelUNConferenceonSD.

Box 4.2 Sustainable development indicators (SDI)

WhenSDbecameaprominentconsiderationinpolicymakingintheearly1990s,SDIinitiatives
flourished.Pressurestateresponse(PSR)andcapitalaccountingbased(CAB)frameworks,in
particular,werewidelyusedtoassesssustainability.ThePSRapproachwasfurthermodifiedas
drivingforcestateresponse(DSR)bytheUnitedNationsConferenceonSustainableDevelopment
(UNCSD)(2001)anddrivingforcepressurestateimpactresponse(DPSIR)bytheUnitedNations
EnvironmentProgramme(UNEP)(UNEP,1997,2000,2002).TheSystemofIntegrated
EnvironmentalEconomicAccounting(SEEA)oftheUnitedNationsoffersawealthofinformation
aboutthestateofecosystemsandiscurrentlyunderrevisionandexpansion.1TheCABapproachis
embodiedintheAdjustedNetSavingsindicatoroftheWorldBank(2003,2011),whichismentioned
inSection4.3and14.1ofthisreport.Itisbasedontheeconomictheoryofgenuinesavings
(understoodasthevariationofallnaturalandmanmadecapitalstocks,evaluatedatcertainspecific
accountingprices),whichshowsthatonapaththatmaximizesthediscountedutilitariansum,a
negativevalueforgenuinesavingsimpliesthatthecurrentlevelofwellbeingisnotsustainable
(HamiltonandClemens,1999;Pezzey,2004).
GeneralpresentationsandcriticalassessmentsofSDIscanbefoundinalargeliterature(Daly,1996;
Aronssonetal.,1997;PezzeyandToman,2002;Lawn,2003;HamiltonandAtkinson,2006;Asheim,
2007;DietzandNeumayer,2007;Neumayer,2010;Martinet,2012;MoriandChristodoulou,2012;
FleurbaeyandBlanchet,2013).Thisliteratureispervadedbyaconcernforcomprehensivenessi.e.,
recordingallimportantaspectsofwellbeing,equity,andnaturepreservationforcurrentandfuture
generationsandaccuracyi.e.,avoidingarbitraryorunreliableweightingoftherelevant
dimensionswhensynthesizingmultidimensionalinformation.Thegeneralconclusionofthis
literatureisthatthereiscurrentlynosatisfactoryempiricalindicatorofsustainability.
AlimitationofthePSRmodelisthatitfailstoidentifycausalrelations,anditoversimplifiesthelinks
betweendimensions.Itismoreoverbaseduponaggregateindices,whichlosemuchinformation
containedintheunderlyingindicators.AnimportantlimitationoftheSEEAisthatsocialand

1
Documentationisavailableathttp://unstats.un.org/unsd/envaccounting/seea.asp.

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institutionalissuesareessentiallyleftout,anditsstockandflowapproachisproblematicwith
respecttoenvironmentalandsocialaspectsthatdonothaveamarketprice.Similarly,computing
CABindicatorscompoundsthedifficultyofcomprehensivelyestimatingtheevolutionofcapital
stockswiththedifficultyofcomputingtheaccountingprices.Marketpricesdoproviderelevant
informationforvaluingcapitalstocksinaperfectlymanagedeconomy(asshownbyWeitzman
(1976)),butmaybeverymisleadinginactualconditions(DasguptaandMler,2000;Arrowetal.,
2012).

4.2.1.2 Linkswithclimatechangeandclimatepolicy
Theliteratureonthecomplexrelationsbetweenclimatechange,climatepolicies,andSDislarge
(Swartetal.,2003;Robinsonetal.,2006;Bizikovaetal.,2007;Sathayeetal.,2007;Thuiller,2007;
Akimotoetal.,2012;Janetosetal.,2012).ThelinksbetweenSDandclimateissuesareexaminedin
detailinWGIIChapter20.MappingouttheselinksisalsoimportantinthisWGIIIreport,andisdone
inthissection.
Threemainlinkagescanbeidentified,eachofwhichcontainsmanyelements.First,theclimate
threatconstrainspossibledevelopmentpaths,andsufficientlydisruptiveclimatechangecould
precludeanyprospectforsustainablefuture(WGIIChapter19).Inthisperspective,aneffective
climateresponseisnecessarilyanintegralobjectiveofanSDstrategy.
Second,therearetradeoffsbetweenclimateresponsesandbroaderSDgoals,becausesomeclimate
responsescanimposeotherenvironmentalpressures,haveadversedistributionaleffects,draw
resourcesawayfromotherdevelopmentalpriorities,orotherwiseimposelimitationsongrowthand
development(Sections4.6,7.11,8.9,9.8,10.10,11.9,12.8).Section4.4examineshowtoavoidsuch
tradeoffsbychangingbehaviouralpatternsanddecouplingemissionsandgrowth,and/or
decouplinggrowthandwellbeing.
Third,therearemultiplepotentialsynergiesbetweenclimateresponsesandbroaderSDobjectives.
Climateresponsesmaygeneratecobenefitsforhumanandeconomicdevelopment(Sections3.6,
4.8,6.6,7.9,8.7,9.6,10.8,11.7).Atamorefundamentallevel,capacitiesunderlyinganeffective
climateresponseoverlapstronglywithcapacitiesforSD(Section4.6,5.3).
Akeymessageofthisreportisthatdesigningasuccessfulclimatepolicymayrequiregoingbeyonda
narrowfocusonmitigationandadaptation,beyondtheanalysisofafewcobenefitsofclimate
policy,andmayinsteadrequiremainstreamingclimateissuesintothedesignofcomprehensiveSD
strategies,includingatlocalandregionallevels.Figure4.1illustratesthedifferentperspectivesfrom
whichclimatepolicycanbeenvisioned.Inthebroadest,boldestperspective,thechoiceofthe
developmentpath(seeSections4.5,6.1)isatstake.

4.2.2 Equityanditsrelationtosustainabledevelopmentandclimatechange
EquityisprominentinresearchandpolicydebatesaboutSDandclimate,bothasdistributiveequity
(distributionofresourcesincontextssuchasburdensharing,distributionofwellbeinginthe
broadercontextofsocialjustice,seeSections3.3,4.4,4.6)andproceduralequity(participationin
decisionmaking,seeSection4.3).Variousaspectsofthegeneralconcept,asdevelopedinsocial
ethics,areintroducedinSection3.2underthenameoffairnessandjustice.(Inthischapterthe
termsequity,fairness,andjusticearenotdistinguishedbutareusedaccordingtocommonusage
dependingoncontext).Theaimofthissubsectionistoanalyzethelinksbetweenequity,SD,and
climateissues.

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Figure 4.1. Three frameworks for thinking about mitigation

EquitybetweengenerationsunderliestheverynotionofSD.Figure4.2,avariantofafigurefrom
HowarthandNorgaard(1992),illustratessustainabilityasthepossibilityforfuturegenerationsto
reachatleastthesamelevelofwellbeingasthecurrentgeneration.Itshowsinparticularthat
sustainabilityisamatterofdistributiveequity,notofefficiency,evenifeliminatinginefficiencies
affectingfuturesustainablewellbeingmayimprovesustainability,asstressedinGrubbetal.(2013).
Therehasbeenarecentsurgeofresearchonintergenerationalequity,motivatedbydissatisfaction
withthetraditionofdiscountingtheutilityoffuturegenerationsintheanalysisofgrowthpaths(see,
e.g.,Asheim(2007),RoemerandSuzumura(2002)forrecentsyntheses).Thedebateondiscounting
isreviewedinSection3.6.2.Recentliteraturepresentsnewargumentsderivingtheimperativeof
sustainingwellbeingacrossgenerationsfrommorebasicequityprinciples(Asheimetal.,2001,
2012).

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Figure 4.2. The well-being level of the current generation is sustainable if it does not exceed the
maximum sustainable well-being level of the future generations independently of whether one is or
is not on the possibility frontier. Modified from Howarth and Norgaard (1992).

EquitywithineverygenerationisoftenconsideredanintrinsiccomponentofSDlinkedtothesocial
pillar.TheMillenniumDevelopmentGoals(MDGs)maybeseenasoneindicationofamoreexplicit
globalcommitmenttothesocialpillar(UnitedNations,2000).Yet,therelationbetweenequity
withingenerationsandSDiscomplex.Attemptingtomeettheneedsoftheworldspoorby
proliferatingtheconsumptionpatternsandproductionprocessesoftheworldsrichestpopulations
wouldbeunsustainable(MillenniumEcosystemAssessment,2005;Rockstrmetal.,2009b;Steffen
etal.,2011;IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange,2014).Suchascenariowouldnotlikely
playoutwellfortheworldspoor.Environmentalissuesareinterwovenwiththefabricofracial,
social,andeconomicinjustice.Environmentalcostsandbenefitsareoftendistributedsothatthose
whoalreadysufferothersocioeconomicdisadvantagestendtobearthegreatestburden(Okereke,
2011).
Figure4.3illustratesthenormativeframeworkinwhichaSDpathcanbegroundedoncertainvalues
(wellbeing,equity)andinterrelatedgoals(developmentandconservation),andthesynergiesand
tradeoffsbetweenSDandclimatepolicy,withproceduralequityanditerativelearningnurturing
eachstep,fromconceptualizationtoimplementation.

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Figure 4.3. Links between SD, equity, and climate policy

Intherestofthissection,wefocusononekeydimensionofequitythatisofcentralimportanceto
internationalnegotiationstowardaneffectiveglobalresponsetoclimatechange.Asinmanyother
contexts,fundamentalquestionsofresourceallocationandburdensharingariseinclimatechange,
andthereforeequityprinciplesareinvokedanddebated.Threelinesofargumenthavebeenput
forwardtojustifyareferencetoequityinthiscontext(Section4.6examinesthedetailsofburden
sharingprinciplesandframeworksinaclimateregime.)
Thefirstjustificationisthenormativeclaimthatitismorallypropertoallocateburdensassociated
withourcommonglobalclimatechallengeaccordingtoethicalprinciples.Thebroadsetofethical
argumentsforascribingmoralobligationstoindividualnationshasbeenreviewedinSection3.3,
drawingimplicitlyuponacosmopolitanviewofjustice,whichpositsthatsomeofthebasicrights
anddutiesthatarisebetweenpeoplewithinnationsalsoholdbetweenpeopleofdifferentnations.
Thesecondjustificationisthelegalclaimthatcountrieshaveacceptedtreatycommitmentstoact
againstclimatechangethatincludethecommitmenttosharetheburdenofactionequitably.This
claimderivesfromthefactthatsignatoriestotheUNFCCChaveagreedthat:Partiesshouldprotect
theclimatesystemforthebenefitofpresentandfuturegenerationsofhumankind,onthebasisof
equityandinaccordancewiththeircommonbutdifferentiatedresponsibilitiesandrespective
capabilities(UNFCCC,2002).Thesecommitmentsareconsistentwithabodyofsoftlawandnorms
suchasthenoharmruleaccordingtowhichastatemustprevent,reduceorcontroltheriskof
seriousenvironmentalharmtootherstates(StockholmConvention(UNEP,1972),Riodeclaration
(UnitedNations,1992b),Stone(2004)).Inaddition,ithasbeennotedthatclimatechangeadversely
affectsarangeofhumanrightsthatareincorporatedinwidelyratifiedtreaties(Aminzadeh,2006;
Humphreys,2009;Knox,2009;WewerinkeandYuIII,2010;Bodansky,2010).
Thethirdjustificationisthepositiveclaimthatequitableburdensharingwillbenecessaryifthe
climatechallengeistobeeffectivelymet.Thisclaimderivesfromthefactthatclimatechangeisa
classiccommonsproblem(Hardin,1968;Soroos,1997;Buck,1998;Folke,2007)(alsoseeSection
13.2.2.4).Aswithanycommonsproblem,thesolutionliesincollectiveaction(Ostrom,1990).Thisis
trueattheglobalscaleaswellasthelocal,onlymorechallengingtoachieve(Ostrometal.,1999).

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Inducingcooperationrelies,toanimportantdegree,onconvincingothersthatoneisdoingonesfair
share.Thisiswhynotionsofequitableburdensharingareconsideredimportantinmotivatingactors
toeffectivelyrespondtoclimatechange.Theyareevenmoreimportantgiventhatactorsarenotas
equalastheproverbialcommoners,wheretheverynameassertshomogeneity(Milanovietal.,
2007).Tothecontrary,thereareimportantasymmetriesorinequalitiesbetweenstakeholders
(Okerekeetal.,2009;Okereke,2010):asymmetryincontributiontoclimatechange(pastand
present),invulnerabilitytotheimpactsofclimatechange,incapacitytomitigatetheproblem,and
inpowertodecideonsolutions.Otheraspectsoftherelationbetweenintragenerationalequityand
climateresponseincludethegenderissuesnotedin4.2.1.2,andtheroleofvirtueethicsandcitizen
attitudesinchanginglifestylesandbehaviours(Dobson,2007;Lane,2012),atopicanalyzedin
Section4.4.
Young(2013)hasidentifiedthreegeneralconditionswhichapplytotheclimatecontextunder
whichthesuccessfulformationandeventualeffectivenessofacollectiveactionregimemayhinge
onequitableburdensharing:theabsenceofactorswhoarepowerfulenoughtocoercivelyimpose
theirpreferredburdensharingarrangements;theinapplicabilityofstandardutilitarianmethodsof
calculatingcostsandbenefits;andthefactthatregimeeffectivenessdependsonalongterm
commitmentofmemberstoimplementitsterms.Withrespecttoclimatechange,ithaslongbeen
notedthataregimethatmanymembersfindunfairwillbefaceseverechallengestoitsadoptionor
bevulnerabletofesteringtensionsthatjeopardizeitseffectiveness(Harris,1996;Mller,1999;
Young,2012).Specifically,anyattempttoprotecttheclimatebykeepinglivingstandardslowfora
largepartoftheworldpopulationwillfacestrongpoliticalresistance,andwillalmostcertainlyfail
(RobertsandParks,2007;Baeretal.,2009).Whilecostsofparticipationmayprovideincentivesfor
noncooperationordefectionintheshortterm,theclimatenegotiationsarenotaoneshotgame,
andtheyareembeddedinamuchbroaderglobalcontext;climatechangeisonlyoneofmanyglobal
problemsenvironmental,economic,andsocialthatwillrequireeffectivecooperativeglobal
governanceifdevelopmentandindeedhumanwelfareistobesustainedinthelongterm
(Singer,2004;Jasanoff,2004;SpethandHaas,2006;Kjellen,2008).
Despitethesethreelinesofjustification,thequestionoftherolethatequitydoesorshouldplayin
theestablishmentofglobalclimatepolicyandburdensharinginparticularisnonetheless
controversial(Victor,1998).Thefactthatthereisnouniversallyacceptedglobalauthoritytoenforce
participationistakenbysometomeanthatsovereignty,notequityistheprevailingprinciple.Sucha
conceptionimpliesthatthebottomlinecriterionforaselfenforcing(Barrett,2005)cooperative
agreementwouldbesimplythateveryoneisnoworseoffthanthestatusquo.Thishasbeentermed
InternationalParetianism(PosnerandWeisbach,2010),anditsironic,evenperverseresultshave
beenpointedout:anoptimalclimatetreatycouldwellrequiresidepaymentstorichcountrieslike
theUnitedStatesandrisingcountrieslikeChina,andindeedpossiblyfromverypoorcountrieswhich
areextremelyvulnerabletoclimatechangesuchasBangladesh."(PosnerandWeisbach,2010).
However,bothcriticsandadvocatesoftheimportanceofequityintheclimatenegotiations
acknowledgethatgovernmentscanchoosetoactonmoralratherthanpurelyselfinterested
principles(DeCanioandFremstad,2010;PosnerandWeisbach,2010,2012;Baer,2013;Jamieson,
2013)(seealsoSection3.10).Whetherornotstatesbehaveasrationalactors,giventhesignificant
globalgainstobehadfromcooperation,thisleavesampleroomfordiscussionoftheroleofequity
inthedistributionofthoseglobalgains,whilestillleavingallpartiesbetteroff(Stone,2004).
Whiletheabovediscussionfocusesonequityamongnations,equallyrelevantconcernsregarding
equitywithinnationsalsoarise,andindeedcanbeoverridingdeterminantsoftheprospectsfor
climatepolicytobeadopted.Demandsforequityhavebeenarticulatedbylabourcommunities
primarilyintermsofajusttransition(InternationalLabourOffice,2010;NewellandMulvaney,
2013),andoftenbymarginalizedpopulationsandracialminoritiesintermsofenvironmentaljustice
andjustsustainability(AgyemanandEvans,2004;WalkerandBulkeley,2006;Shiva,2008).While

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theparticulardemandsarehighlylocationandcontextspecific,thebroadconcernsareprocedural
anddistributivejusticewithreducedpowerasymmetries,asunderscoredthroughoutthischapter.

4.3 Determinants,driversandbarriers
ThissectionexploresthedeterminantsofSD,emphasizinghoweachinfluencestheextenttowhich
societiescanbalancetheeconomic,social,andenvironmentalpillarsofSD,whilehighlighting
potentialsynergiesandtradeoffsforthebuildingofmitigativeandadaptivecapacityandthe
realizationofeffectiveandequitablemitigationandadaptationstrategies.Determinantsreferto
socialprocesses,properties,andartefacts,aswellasnaturalresources,whichtogethercondition
andmediatethecourseofsocietaldevelopment,andthustheprospectsforSD.Whendeterminants
facilitateSDtheyactdriversandwhentheyconstrainittheyactasbarriers.
Thedeterminantsdiscussedinclude:thelegacyofdevelopmentrelations;governanceandpolitical
economy;populationanddemography;humanandsocialcapital;behaviour,culture,andvalues;
technologyandinnovationprocesses;naturalresources;andfinanceandinvestment.These
determinantsareinterdependent,characterizedbyfeedbacksthatblurthedistinctionbetween
causeandeffect,andtheirrelativeimportancedependsoncontextseeanalogousdiscussioninthe
contextofGHGemissiondriversin5.3.Theyarenotunique,andotherdeterminantssuchas
leadership(JonesandOlken,2005),randomness(Holling,1973;Arthur,1989),orhumannature
(Wilson,1978)couldbeaddedtothelist,buttheyarelessamenabletodeliberateinterventionby
policymakersandotherdecisionmakersandhavethereforebeenexcluded.Whatfollowslaysthe
foundationsforunderstandingconceptsthatrecurthroughoutthischapterandthosethatfollow.

4.3.1 Legacyofdevelopmentrelations
FollowingWorldWarII,security,economic,andhumanitarianrelationsbetweenrichnationsand
poornationswerecomingledandaddressedundertheumbrellaofdevelopment(Truman,1949;
Sachs,Wolfgang,1999).Differingperspectivesonthemixedoutcomesofsixdecadesof
development,andwhattheoutcomesmayindicateaboutunderlyingintentionsandcapabilities,
informdifferentactorsindifferentwaysastowhatwillworktoaddressclimatechangeandthe
transitiontoSD.Duringthe1950sand1960s,forexample,expectationswerethatpovertywouldbe
reduceddramaticallybytheendofthecentury(Rist,2003).Itwaswidelybelievedthateconomic
developmentcouldbeinstigatedthroughaidfromrichernations,bothfinancialandinkind.
Developmentwasseenasaprocessofgoingthroughstagesstartingwithtransformingtraditional
agriculturethrougheducation,theintroductionofnewagriculturaltechnologies,improvedaccessto
capitalforfarmimprovements,andtheconstructionoftransportationinfrastructuretofacilitate
markets.Improvedagriculturewouldreleaseworkersforanindustrialstageandtherebyincrease
opportunitiesforeducationandcommercialdevelopmentincities.Asdevelopmentproceeded,
nationswouldincreasinglyacquiretheirownscientificcapabilitiesand,later,sophisticated
governancestructurestoregulatefinanceandindustryinthepublicgood,becomingwellrounded,
wellgovernedeconomiescomparabletothoseofrichnations.
Bythe1970s,however,itwasclearthatdevelopmentwasnotonapathtofulfillingtheselinear
expectationsbecause:1)contributionsofaidfromtherichnationswerenotatlevelsanticipated;2)
technologicalandinstitutionalchangeswereonlypartiallysuccessful,provedinappropriate,orhad
unpredicted,unfortunateconsequences;3)requestsformilitaryaidandthesecurityandeconomic
objectivesofrichernationsinthecontextoftheColdWarwerefrequentlygivenpriorityover
povertyreduction;and4)graft,patronage,andthefavouringofspecialinterestsdivertedfunds
frompovertyreduction.Thegeneralbeliefthatnationsnaturallywentthroughstagesof
developmenttobecomewellroundedeconomiesfadedbytheearly1980s.Greaterparticipationin
globaltrade,withitsimpliedspecialization,wasinvokedasthepathtoeconomicgrowth.Diverse
othereffortsweremadetoimprovehowdevelopmentworked,butwithonlymodestsuccess,

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leavingmanyinrichandpoornationsconcernedaboutdevelopmentprocessandprospects(United
Nations,2011a).
Layeringthegoalofenvironmentalsustainabilityontothegoalofpovertyreductionfurther
compoundedthelegacyofunmetexpectations(WorldCommissiononEnvironmentand
Development,1987).Therehavebeendifficultiesdetermining,shiftingto,andgoverningfor
sustainablepathways(Sanwal,2010)see4.3.2below.Thenegotiationofnewrulesforthemobility
ofprivatecapitalandthedriveforglobalizationoftheeconomyalsocamewithnewexpectationsfor
development(Stiglitz,2002).TheMillenniumDevelopmentGoals(MDG)establishedin2000tobe
metby2015areanexampleofhowsuchexpectationswerethoughttoberealizableintherapidly
evolvingtimesoftheglobalfinancialeconomy.Inretrospectandafterthe2008financialsector
inducedrecession,significantimprovementsarelargelyinChinaandIndiawhereeconomicgrowth
acceleratedthroughprivatecapitalflowsindependentoftheMDGprocess.Excludingthese
countries,therecordismixedatbestandstillpoorinmostofAfrica(KeyzerandWesenbeeck,2007;
Easterly,2009;UnitedNations,2011a).Additionally,sincethe1990s,greenhousegasemissions
becameanotherfocusofcontention(RobertsandParks,2007;Penetrante,2011;Dryzeketal.,
2011).Thedevelopednationsbecamerichthroughtheearlyuseoffossilfuelsandland
transformationsthatputGHGsintheatmosphere,imposingcostsonallpeople,richandpoor,
throughclimateimpactsthatwillpersistovercenturies(Srinivasanetal.,2008).Connections
betweencausalandmoralresponsibilityarose,complicatingthelegacyofdevelopment.
Suchlegacyofunmetdevelopmentandsustainabilityexpectationsisopentomultiple
interpretations.Inrichernations,theevidencecanbeinterpretedtosupporttheviewsoffiscal
conservativeswhoopposeaid,libertarianswhoopposehumanitarianandenvironmental
interventions,progressiveswhourgethatmoreneedstobedonetoreachsocialandenvironmental
goals,andsomeenvironmentalistswhourgedematerializationanddegrowthamongtherichas
necessarytomeettheneedsofthepoor.Inpoorernations,thelegacysimilarlysupportsvarious
viewsincludingadistrustofrichnationsfornotdeliveringdevelopmentandenvironmental
assistanceaspromised,cynicismtowardtheintentionsandconceptualrationaleswhenitis
provided,andalsoawarinessofdevelopmentsunpredictedoutcomes.
Inbothdevelopedanddevelopingnationsthesediversesentimentsamongthepublic,policy
makers,andclimatenegotiatorscontributetowhatphilosopherGardiner(2011b)referstoasthe
perfectmoralstormofclimatepolicy.Someanalystsarguethatthelegacyofdevelopmentand
interrelatedissuesofequitysocloudglobalclimatenegotiationsthatadhocagreementsand
voluntarypledgesarethemostthatcanbeachieved(Victor,2004)andconsiderationsof
developmentandequityarebetterleftaside(PosnerandWeisbach,2010),althoughthisleaves
openwhethersucharrangementscouldprovideanadequatelyambitiousclimateresponse
consistentwiththeUNFCCCsobjectives.(SeeSection4.6.2forfurtherdiscussionofperspectiveson
equityinaclimateregime,andSection13.4.3forfurtherdiscussionofregimearchitectures).

4.3.2 Governanceandpoliticaleconomy
GovernanceandpoliticaleconomyarecriticaldeterminantsforSD,equity,andclimatechange
mitigationbecausetheycircumscribetheprocessthroughwhichthesegoalsandhowtoattainthem
arearticulatedandcontested.Thequestforequityandclimatechangemitigationinthecontextof
SDthusnecessitatesanimprovedunderstandingandpracticeofgovernance(Biermannetal.,2009;
Okerekeetal.,2009).Governanceinthebroadestsensereferstotheprocessesofinteractionand
decisionmakingamongactorsinvolvedinacommonproblem(Kooiman,2003;Hufty,2011).Itgoes
beyondnotionsofformalgovernmentorpoliticalauthorityandintegratesotheractors,networks,
informalinstitutions,andincentivestructuresoperatingatvariouslevelsofsocialorganization
(Rosenau,1990;ChotrayandStoker,2009).Inturn,climategovernancehasbeendefinedasthe
mechanismsandmeasures"aimedatsteeringsocialsystemstowardspreventing,mitigatingor
adaptingtotherisksposedbyclimatechange(JagersandStripple,2003).Fromthisdefinition,it

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canbeseenasabroadphenomenonencompassingnotonlyformalpolicymakingbystates,butall
theprocessesthroughwhichauthorityisgeneratedandexertedtoaffectclimatechangeand
sustainability.ThisincludespolicymakingbystatesbutalsobymanyotheractorsNGOs,TNCs,
municipalities,forexampleoperatingacrossvariousscales(Okerekeetal.,2009).
ManyscholarshavehighlightedthechallengesassociatedwithgoverningforSDandclimatechange
(AdgerandJordan,2009;Levinetal.,2012).First,itinvolvesrethinkingthewayssocietyrelatesto
natureandtheunderlyingbiophysicalsystems.Thisisrelevantinthecontextofthegrowing
evidenceoftheimpactofhumanactivityontheplanetandtheunderstandingthatextraordinary
degreesofirreversibledamageandharmaredistinctpossibilitiesiftherightmeasuresarenottaken
withinanadequatetimescale(MillenniumEcosystemAssessment,2005;Rockstrmetal.,2009a).
Second,governingclimatechangeinvolvescomplexintergenerationalconsiderations.Ontheone
hand,causeandeffectofsomeenvironmentalimpactsandclimatechangeareseparatedby
decades,oftengenerations,andontheotherhand,thosewhobearthecostsofremediationand
mitigationmaynotbetheonestoreapthebenefitsofavoidedharm(Biermann,2007).
Third,effectiveresponsetoclimatechangemayrequireafundamentalrestructuringoftheglobal
economicandsocialsystems,whichinturnwouldinvolveovercomingvestedmultipleinterestsand
theinertiaassociatedwithbehaviouralpatternsandcraftingnewinstitutionsthatpromote
sustainability(Meadowsetal.,2004;MillenniumEcosystemAssessment,2005).Thischallengeis
exacerbatedbythehugemismatchbetweentheplanninghorizonneededtoaddressglobal
environmentalproblemsandclimatechangeandthetenureofdecisionmakers(Hovietal.,2009).
Fourth,andfinally,SDgovernancecutsacrossseveralrealmsofpolicyandorganization.Particularly,
thegovernanceofmitigationandadaptationisanelementofacomplexandevolvingarenaofglobal
environmentalgovernance,whichdealswithother,andoftenoverlapping,issuessuchas
biodiversityloss,desertification,watermanagement,trade,energysecurity,andhealth,among
others(AdgerandJordan,2009;Brown,2009;Belletal.,2010;BalsigerandDebarbieux,2011;da
Fonsecaetal.,2012;Barketal.,2012).Sitesofclimatechangegovernanceandpolicymakingare
thusmultipleandarenotconfinedtotheUNFCCCandnationalrulemakingprocesses,asituation
whichraiseschallengesinrelationtocoordination,linkages,andsynergies(Ostrom,2010;Zelli,
2011;Jinnah,2011)seeSections13.4,13.13,14.1,15.2,notablyFigure13.1foravisualsummary.
Theseconsiderationsexplainwhyclimategovernancehasattractedmorepoliticalcontroversythan
otherissuesinrelationtoglobalsustainabilityanditsequityconsiderations.Someofthemain
aspectsofthiscontroversyinclude:whoshouldparticipateindecisionmaking;howtomodulate
powerasymmetryamongstakeholders;howtoshareresponsibilityamongactors;whatideasand
institutionsshouldgovernresponsemeasures;andwhereshouldinterventionsfocus?Questionsof
justiceareembeddedthroughout,aggravatedbythehighstakesinvolvedandthestarkasymmetry
amongstatesandothersactorsintermsofcause,effect,andcapabilitytorespondtotheproblem
(OkerekeandDooley,2010;Okereke,2010;Schroederetal.,2012).
Scholarshavelonganalyzedtheaboveissueswithinclimategovernance,offeringamultitudeof
possiblesolutions.Concerningparticipation,adeparturefromthetopdownapproachimpliedinthe
KyotoProtocoltowardsamorevoluntaryandbottomupapproachhasbeensuggested(Rayner,
2010).Somearguethatlimitingparticipationtothe"mostcapable,responsibleandvulnerable"
countriescanfosterprogresstowardmorestringentmitigationpolicy(Eckersley,2012).However,
thelatterhasbeenopposedonthebasisthatitwouldfurtherexacerbateissuesofinequity(Aitken,
2012;StevensonandDryzek,2012).Othershavediscussedtheneedtocreatespacesfor
collaborativelearningtodebate,legitimize,andpotentiallyovercomeknowledgedividesbetween
expertsandlaypeopleinsectoralclimatepolicydevelopment(Swansonetal.,2010;Armitageetal.,
2011;Colfer,2011;Larsenetal.,2012)seeSection13.13forfurtherdetail.Onallocationof
responsibility,aglobalagreementhasbeenelusivenotmerelybecausepartiesandotherkeyactors
havedifferingconceptionsofafairallocation(Okereke,2008),butbecausethepertinentpoliciesare

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highlycontentiousgiventhecombinationoffactorsatplay,prominentamongwhicharefinance,
politics,ineffectiveinstitutions,andvestedinterests.
Adefiningimageoftheclimategovernancelandscapeisthatkeyactorshavevastlydisproportionate
capacitiesandresources,includingthepolitical,financial,andcognitiveresourcesthatarenecessary
tosteerthebehaviourofthecollectivewithinandacrossterritorialboundaries(Dingwerthand
Pattberg,2009).Acentralelementofgovernancethereforerelatestohugeasymmetryinsuch
resourcesandtheabilitytoexercisepowerorinfluenceoutcomes.Someactors,including
governments,makeuseofnegotiationpowerand/orlobbyingactivitiestoinfluencepolicydecisions
atmultiplescalesand,bydoingso,affectthedesignandthesubsequentallocationanddistribution
ofbenefitsandcostsresultingfromsuchdecisions(MarkussenandSvendsen,2005;Benvenistiand
Downs,2007;Schfer,2009;Sandler,2010)seee.g.,Section15.5.2.Theproblem,however,also
residesinthefactthatthosethatwieldthegreatestpowereitherconsideritagainsttheirinterestto
facilitaterapidprogresstowardsagloballowcarboneconomyorinsistthattheacceptedsolutions
mustbealignedtoincreasetheirpowerandmaterialgains(SverudandSkjrseth,2007;Giddens,
2009;Hulme,2009;Lohmann,2009,2010;OkerekeandMcDaniels,2012;Wittnebenetal.,2012).
Themostnotableeffectofthisisthatdespitesomeexceptions,theprevailingorganizationofthe
globaleconomy,whichconferssignificantpoweronactorsassociatedwithfossilfuelinterestsand
withthefinancialsector,hasprovidedthecontextforthesortsofgovernancepracticesofclimate
changethathavedominatedtodate(NewellandPaterson,2010).
Manyspecificgovernanceinitiatives,describedinSections13.13and15.3,whetherorganizedby
statesoramongnovelconfigurationsofactors,havefocusedoncreatingnewmarketsorinvestment
opportunities.Thisapplies,forexample,tocarbonmarkets(Paterson,2009),carbonoffsetting
(BumpusandLiverman,2008;Lovelletal.,2009;CorberaandSchroeder,2011;Corbera,2012),
investorledgovernanceinitiativessuchastheCarbonDisclosureProject(CDP)(Kolketal.,2008)or
partnershipssuchastheRenewableEnergyandEnergyEfficiencyPartnership(REEEP)(Parthanet
al.,2010).Somescholarsfindthatcarbonmarketscancontributetoachievingalowfossilcarbon
transition,butrequirecarefuldesignstoachieveenvironmentalandwelfaregains(WoodandJotzo,
2011;PezzeyandJotzo,2012;Springmann,2012;Bakametal.,2012).Othersnotethatsuch
mechanismsarevulnerabletocapturebyspecialinterestsandagainsttheoriginalpurposesfor
whichtheyareconceived.SeveralauthorshavediscussedthisprobleminthecontextoftheClean
DevelopmentMechanism(CDM)andtheEuropeanUnionEmissionsTradingScheme(EUETS)
(Lohmann,2008;Cl,2010;OkerekeandMcDaniels,2012;Bhmetal.,2012).
GoverningforSDandclimatechangerequirescloseattentiontothreekeyissues.First,thereisa
needtounderstandcurrentgovernanceasencompassingmorethantheactorswithinformal
governmentstructures,andtounderstandhowchoicesaredrivenbymorethanoptimaldecision
makingtheory.Secondeffectivegovernancerequiresunderstandingthedynamicsthatdetermine
whetherandhowpolicyoptionsarelegitimized,andthenformallydeliberatedandadopted(ornot).
Consequently,itisnecessarytoexaminehowthesemodesofgovernancearedefinedand
establishedinthefirstplace,bywhomandforwhosebenefit,thusilluminatingtherelationshipand
tensionsbetweeneffectivegovernanceandexistingtrendsinpoliticaleconomy.Third,thereisa
needtoexplorehowdifferentmodesofgovernancetranslateintooutcomes,affectingthedecisions
andactionsofactorsatmultiplescales,andtodrawlessonsabouttheirenvironmentaleffectiveness
anddistributionalimplications.Whilesomearguethatstatesshouldstillberegardedaskeyagents
insteeringsuchtransitions(Eckersley,2004;Weale,2009),mostdecisionmakingrelevanttoSDand
climateremainsfundamentallydecentralized.Akeychallengeofgovernanceisthustorecognizethe
politicaleconomycontextofthesedecisionmakers,toensureprocedurallyequitableprocessesthat
addresstheallocationofresponsibilitiesandensuretransparencyandaccountabilityinany
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4.3.3 Populationanddemography
Populationvariables,includingsize,density,andgrowthrate,aswellasage,sex,education,and
settlementstructures,playadeterminantroleincountriesSDtrajectories.Theirdrivers,in
particularfertility,mortality,andmigration,arereciprocallyinfluencedbydevelopmentpathways,
includingevolvingpolicies,socioculturaltrends,aswellasbychangesintheeconomy(Bloom,
2011).Intheclimatechangecontext,populationtrendshavebeenshowntomatterbothfor
mitigationeffortsaswellasforsocietiesadaptivecapacitiestoclimatechange(ONeilletal.,2001).
Currentdemographictrendsshowdistinctpatternsindifferentpartsoftheworld.Whilepopulation
sizesareonadecliningtrajectoryinEasternEuropeandJapan,theyaresetforsignificantfurther
increaseinmanydevelopingcountries(particularlyinAfricaandsouthwesternAsia)duetoavery
youngpopulationagestructureandcontinuedhighlevelsoffertility.Asmostrecentprojections
show,theworldspopulationisalmostcertaintoincreasetobetween8and10billionbymid
century.Afterthatperiod,uncertaintyincreasessignificantly,withthefuturetrendinbirthrates
beingthekeydeterminant,butitisalsoamplifiedbytheuncertaintyaboutfutureinfectiousdisease
mortalityandthestilluncertainconsequencesofclimatechangeonfuturemortalitytrajectories
(ONeilletal.,2001;LutzandKC,2010;UnitedNations,2011b;Lee,2011;Scherbovetal.,2011).The
populationofSubSaharanAfricawillalmostcertainlydoubleandcouldstillincreasebyafactorof
threeormoredependingonthecourseoffertilityoverthecomingdecades,whichdepends
primarilyonprogressinfemaleeducationandtheavailabilityofreproductivehealthservices
(Bongaarts,2009;Bloom,2011;BongaartsandSinding,2011).
Decliningfertilityrates,togetherwithcontinuedincreasesinlifeexpectancy,resultinsignificant
populationageingaroundtheworld,withthecurrentlowfertilitycountriesbeingmostadvancedin
thisprocess.Populationageingisconsideredamajorchallengeforthesolvencyofsocialsecurity
systems.Forpopulationsstillintheprocessoffertilitydecline,theexpectedburdenofageingisa
moredistantprospect,andthedecliningbirthratesareexpectedtobringsomeneartermbenefits.
Thisphaseintheuniversalprocessofanydemographictransition,whentheratioofchildrento
adultsisalreadydecliningandtheproportionofelderlyhasnotyetincreased,isconsidereda
windowofopportunityforeconomicdevelopment,whichmayalsoresultinaneconomicrebound
effectleadingtohigherpercapitaconsumptionandemissions(BloomandCanning,2000).
Lowdevelopmentiswidelyunderstoodtocontributetohighpopulationgrowth,whichdeclinesonly
aftertheappearanceofwidespreadaccesstokeydevelopmentalneedssuchasperinataland
maternalhealthcare,andfemaleeducationandempowerment.Conversely,highpopulationgrowth
iswidelyregardedasanobstacletoSDbecauseittendstomakeeffortssuchastheprovisionof
cleandrinkingwaterandagriculturalgoodsandtheexpansionofhealthservicesandschool
enrolmentratesdifficult(Dyson,2006;Potts,2007;PimentelandPaoletti,2009).Thishasgivenrise
tothefearofaviciouscircleofunderdevelopmentandgenderinequityyieldinghighpopulation
growthandenvironmentaldegradation,inturninhibitingthedevelopmentnecessarytobringdown
fertility(CaoleandHoover,1958;EhrlichandHoldren,1971;Dasgupta,1993).However,history
showsthatcountriescanbreakthisviciouscirclewiththerightsocialpolicies,withanearly
emphasisoneducationandfamilyplanning;prominentexamplesincludeSouthKoreaand
Mauritius,whichwereusedinthe1950sastextbookexamplesofcountriestrappedinsuchavicious
circle(Meade,1967).
Withrespecttoadaptationtoclimatechange,theliteratureonpopulationandenvironmenthas
beguntoexploremorecloselypeoplesvulnerabilitytoclimatestressors,includingvariabilityand
extremeevents,andtoanalyzetheiradaptivecapacityandrelianceonenvironmentalresourcesto
copewithadversitiesandadapttogradualchangesandshocks(Bankoffetal.,2004;Adgeretal.,
2009)seealso4.6.1andAR5WGII.Generallyspeaking,notonlydoesthenumberofpeople
matter,butsodoestheircompositionbyage,gender,placeofresidence,andlevelofeducation,as
wellastheinstitutionalcontextthatinfluencespeoplesdecisionmakinganddevelopment

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opportunities(Dyson,2006).Onewidelyandcontroversiallydiscussedformofadaptationcanbe
internationalmigrationinducedbyclimatechange.Thereisoftenpublicconcernthatmassive
migrationofthissortcouldcontributetopoliticalinstabilityandpossiblyconflict.However,amajor
recentreviewofourknowledgeinthisfieldhasconcludedthatmuchenvironmentallyinduced
migrationislikelytobeinternalmigrationandthereisverylittlesciencebasedevidencefor
assessingpossibleconsequencesofenvironmentalchangeonlargeinternationalmigrationstreams
(UKGovernmentOfficeforScience,2011).

4.3.4 Valuesandbehaviours
Researchhasidentifiedarangeofindividualandcontextualpredictorsofbehavioursinfavouror
againstclimatechangemitigation,rangingfromindividuals'psychologicalneedstoculturaland
socialorientationstowardstimeandnature(Swimetal.,2009)seeSections2.4,3.10,and5.5.
Belowwediscusssomeofthesefactors,focusingonhumanvaluesthatinfluenceindividualand
collectivebehavioursandaffectourprioritiesandactionsconcerningthepursuitofSD,equitygoals,
andclimatemitigation.Valueshavebeendefinedasenduringbeliefsthatpertaintodesirableend
statesorbehaviours,transcendspecificsituations,guideselectionorevaluationofbehaviourand
eventsandareorderedbyimportance(citingSchwartzandBilsky,1987,p.551;Pepperetal.,2009,
p.127).Valuesprovideguidesforlivingthebestwaypossibleforindividuals,socialgroupsand
cultures(citingRohan,2000,p.263;Pepperetal.,2009,p.127)andsoinfluenceactionsatalllevels
ofsocietyincludingtheindividual,thehousehold,thefirm,civilsociety,andgovernment.
Individualsacquirevaluesthroughsocializationandlearningexperience(Pepperetal.,2009)and
valuesthusrelatetomanyoftheotherdeterminantsdiscussedinthissection.Valuesmayberooted
incultural,religious,andotherbeliefsystems,whichmaysometimesconflictwithscientific
understandingsofenvironmentalrisks.Inparticular,distinctvaluesmayinfluenceperceptionsand
interpretationsofclimateimpactsandhenceclimateresponses(Wolfetal.,2013).
TherelevanceofvaluestoSDand,particularly,toecologicallyconscious(consumer)behaviour,is
relatedtothenatureofenvironmentalissuesassocialdilemmas,whereshorttermnarrow
individualinterestsconflictwiththelongertermsocialinterest(Pepperetal.,2009).Researchers
havehighlightedtheroleofnonselfishvaluesthatpromotethewelfareofothers(includingnature),
notingthatsomebutnotallindigenoussocietiesareknowntofocusoncollectiveasopposedto
individualinterestsandvalues,whichoftenresultinpositiveresourceconservationstrategiesand
wellbeing(Gadgiletal.,1993;Sobrevila,2008;Watsonetal.,2011).However,itiswellknownthata
rangeoffactorsalsomediatetheimpactofvaluesonbehavioursuchthatthelinkfromvaluesto
ecologicallyconsciousbehaviourisoftenloose(Pepperetal.,2009).
Infact,thisvalueactiongapsuggeststhatpursuingclimatechangemitigationandSDgloballymay
requiresubstantialchangesinbehaviourintheshorttermalongwithatransformationofhuman
valuesinthelongterm,e.g.,progressivelychangingconceptionsandattitudestowardbiophysical
systemsandhumaninteraction(Gladwinetal.,1995;Leiserowitzetal.,2005;VlekandSteg,2007;
Folkeetal.,2011a).Changinghumanvalueswouldrequireabetterunderstandingofcrosscultural
behaviouraldifferencesthatinturnrelatetoenvironmental,economic,andpoliticalhistories
(Norenzayan,2011).
Behaviouralchangecanbeinducedbychangesinformalandcivilinstitutionsandgovernance,
humanvalues(Jackson,2005a;Folkeetal.,2011a;Fischeretal.,2012),perceptionsofriskand
causality,andeconomicincentives.Removingperversesubsidiesforenvironmentallyharmful
products,favouringgreenerconsumptionandtechnologies,adoptingmorecomprehensiveformsof
biophysicalandeconomicaccounting,andprovidingsaferworkingconditionsareconsideredcentral
forachievingproSDbehaviouralchange(LebelandLorek,2008;Thgersen,2010;LeBlanc,2010).
Yetbehaviourexperiments(OsbaldistonandSchott,2012)suggestthereisnosilverbulletfor
fosteringecologicallyconsciousbehaviour,asfavourableactions(e.g.,toconserveenergy)are
triggeredbydifferentstimuli,includinginformation,regulationoreconomicrewards,andinfluenced

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bythenatureoftheissueitself.Furthermore,peopleareabletoexpressbothrelativelyhighlevels
ofenvironmentalconcernandrelativelyhighlevelsofmaterialismsimultaneously(Gaterslebenet
al.,2010).Thissuggeststheneedtobeissue,context,andculturallyawarewhendesigningspecific
actionstofosterproSDbehaviour,asbothenvironmentalandmaterialisticconcernsmustbe
addressed.Thesecomplexitiesunderscorethechallengesinchangingbeliefs,preferences,habits,
androutines(Southerton,2012)seeSections4.4and5.5.2.

4.3.5 Humanandsocialcapital
LevelsofhumanandsocialcapitalalsocriticallyinfluenceatransitiontowardSDandthedesignand
implementationofmitigationandadaptationstrategies.Humancapitalresultsfromindividualand
collectiveinvestmentsinacquiringknowledgeandskillsthatbecomeusefulforimprovingwellbeing
(Iyer,2006).Suchknowledgeandskillscanbeacquiredthroughformalschoolingandtraining,as
wellasinformallythroughcustomarypracticesandinstitutions,includingcommunitiesandfamilies.
Humancapitalcanthusbeviewedasacriticalcomponentofabroaderencompassinghuman
capability,i.e.,apersonsabilitytoachieveagivenlistoffunctioningsorachievements,which
dependonarangeofpersonalandsocialfactors,includingeducation,age,gender,health,income,
nutritionalknowledge,andenvironmentalconditions,amongothers(Sen,1997,2001).SeeClark
(2009)andSchokkaert(2009)forareviewofSen'scapabilityapproachanditscritiques.
Economistshavelongconsideredimprovementsinhumancapitalakeyexplanatoryreasonbehind
theevolutionofeconomicsystems,intermsofgrowthandconstantinnovation(Schultz,1961;Healy
andCote,2001).Macroeconomicresearchshowsastrongcorrelationbetweenlevelsofeconomic
developmentandlevelsofhumancapitalandviceversa(Schultz,2003;Iyer,2006),whilemicro
economicstudiesrevealapositiverelationshipbetweenincreasesinthequantityandqualityof
formaleducationandfutureearnings(Duflo,2001).Gainsinhumancapitalcanbepositively
correlatedtoeconomicgrowthandefficiency,butalsotonutritional,health,andeducation
standards(Schultz,1995).Assuch,improvementsinhumancapitalprovideabasisforSD,asthey
shapecountriessocioeconomicsystemsandinfluencepeoplesabilitytomakeinformedchoices.
Seemingly,humancapitaloftenalsoexplainsthedevelopmentandsurvivalofbusinessventures
(ColomboandGrilli,2005;Patzelt,2010;GimmonandLevie,2010),whichareanimportantsourceof
innovationanddiffusionofprinciplesandtechnologiesthatcancontributetoSDandtoambitious
mitigationandadaptationgoals(MarvelandLumpkin,2007;Terjesen,2007).
Additionally,agrowingbodyofliteratureineconomics,geography,andpsychology(reviewedin
Sections2.4,2.6.6and3.10aswellasinWGIIChapter2)hasshownthatthediversityof
environmental,socioeconomic,educationalandculturalcontextsinwhichindividualsmake
decisionsshapetheirwillingnessand/orabilitytoengageinmitigationandadaptationaction
(Lorenzonietal.,2007).Itisimportanttodistinguishbetweenformallyacquiredknowledgeon
climatechangeoftenbasedonscientificdevelopmentsandtraditionalknowledgeonclimate
relatedissues(SmithandSharp,2012),aswellastorecognizethattherelativevalidityofbothtypes
ofknowledgetodifferentaudiences,andthemeaningandrelevanceofpersonalengagement,will
beinfluencedbyindividualperceptions,preferences,values,andbeliefs.Therefore,knowledgeon
climateissuesdoesnotaloneexplainindividualandcollectiveresponsestotheclimatechallenge
(Whitmarsh,2009;Sarewitz,2011;WolfandMoser,2011;Berkhout,2012).Thereisevidenceof
cognitivedissonanceandstrategicbehaviourinbothmitigationandadaptation.Denialmechanisms
thatoverratethecostsofchanginglifestyles,blameothers,andthatcastdoubtontheeffectiveness
ofindividualactionorthesoundnessofscientificknowledgearewelldocumented(StollKleemann
etal.,2001;Norgaard,2011;McCrightandDunlap,2011),asistheconcertedeffortbyopponentsof
climateactiontoseedandamplifythosedoubts(Jacquesetal.,2008;Kolmes,2011;Conwayand
Oreskes,2011).
Amongthedifferentdefinitionsofsocialcapital,oneofthemostinfluentialwasproposedby
Fukuyama(2002):thesharednormsorvaluesthatpromotesocialcooperation,whicharefounded

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inturnonactualsocialrelationships,includingtrustandreciprocity.Socialcapitalappearsinthe
formoffamilybonds,friendshipandcollectivenetworks,associations,andothermoreorless
institutionalizedformsofcollectiveaction.Socialcapitalisthusgenerallyperceivedasanassetfor
boththeindividualsthatrecognizeandparticipateinsuchnormsandnetworksandforthe
respectivegroup/society,insofarastheyderivebenefitsfrominformation,participatingindecision
makingandbelongingtothegroup.Socialcapitalcanbelinkedtosuccessfuloutcomesineducation,
employment,familyrelationships,andhealth(GamarnikowandGreen,1999),aswellasto
economicdevelopmentandparticipatory,democraticgovernance(Woolcock,1998;Fukuyama,
2002;DohandMcNeely,2012).Indeed,socialcapitalcanalsobesustainedonunfairsocialnorms
andinstitutionsthatperpetuateaninequitableaccesstothebenefitsprovidedbysocialorganization
(WoolcockandNarayan,2000),throughsocialnetworksofcorruptionorcriminalorganizations,for
example,thatperpetuatetheunevendistributionofpublicresources,andunderminesocieties
cohesionandphysicalsecurity.
ScholarshipsuggeststhatsocialcapitalissupportiveforSD(Rudd,2000;BridgerandLuloff,2001;
Tsai,2008;Ostrom,2008;Jonesetal.,2011),havingshownthatitcanbeinstrumentaltoaddress
collectiveactionproblems(Ostrom,1998;Rothstein,2005),combatinjusticesandconditionsof
povertyandvulnerability(WoolcockandNarayan,2000),andbenefitfromresources(Bebbington,
1999;Diazetal.,2002),andtofostermitigationandadaptation(Adger,2003;Wolfetal.,2010).

4.3.6 Technology
Technologyhasbeenacentralelementofhuman,social,andeconomicdevelopmentsinceancient
times(Jonas,1985;Mokyr,1992).ItcanbeameanstoachievingequitableSD,byenablingeconomic
andsocialdevelopmentwhileusingenvironmentalresourcesmoreefficiently.Thedevelopmentand
deploymentoftheoverwhelmingmajorityoftechnologiesismediatedbymarkets,respondingto
effectivedemandofpurchasers(Baumol,2002),andcarriedoutbyprivatefirms,wherethepre
requisitesoftechnologicalcapacityandinvestmentresourcestendtobefound.However,this
processdoesnotnecessarilyaddressthebasicneedsofthosemembersofsocietywithinsufficient
marketdemandtoinfluencethedecisionsofinnovatorsandinvestors,nordoesitprovidean
incentivetoreduceexternalizedcosts,suchasthecostsofGHGpollution(Jaffeetal.,2005).
FundamentalobjectivesofequityandSDarestillunmet.Forexample,thebasicenergyand
nutritionalneedsoflargepartsoftheworldspopulationremainunfulfilled.Anestimated1.3billion
peoplelackedaccesstoelectricityin2011andabout3billionpeopleworldwidereliedonhighly
pollutingandunhealthytraditionalsolidfuelsforhouseholdcookingandheating(Pachaurietal.;
IEA,2012b)(seeSection14.3.2.1).Similarly,theFoodandAgriculturalOrganization(FAO)indicates
thatalmost870millionpeople(mostlyindevelopingcountries)werechronicallyundernourishedin
201012(FAO,2012).AchievingtheobjectivesofequitableSDdemandsthefulfilmentofsuchbasic
andotherdevelopmentalneeds.Thechallengeisthereforetodesign,implement,andprovide
supportfortechnologyinnovationanddiffusionprocessesthatrespondtosocialandenvironmental
goals,whichatpresentdonotreceiveadequateincentivesthroughconventionalmarkets.
Scholarsoftechnologicalchangehave,inrecentyears,beguntohighlightthesystemicnatureof
innovationprocessesaswellasthefundamentalimportanceofsocialandtechnicalinteractionsin
shapingtechnologicalchange(seeSection4.5.2.2).Accordingly,asafirststeptowardunderstanding
howinnovationcouldhelpmeetsocialandenvironmentalgoals,asystematicassessmentofthe
adequacyandperformanceoftherelevantinnovationsystemswouldbehelpful,includingan
examinationofthescaleofinnovationinvestments,theallocationamongvariousobjectivesand
options,theefficiencybywhichinvestmentsyieldoutputs,andhoweffectivelytheoutputsare
utilizedformeetingthediffusionobjectives(SagarandHoldren,2002;Sanwal,2011;Aitken,2012).
Forexample,manyreportsandanalyseshavesuggestedthatinvestmentsininnovationforpublic
goodssuchascleanenergyandenergyaccessarenotcommensuratewiththenatureandscaleof
thesechallenges(NemetandKammen,2007;AEIC,2010;Bazilianetal.,2010).Innovationinand

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diffusionofnewtechnologiesalsorequireskillsandknowledgefrombothdevelopersandusers,as
wellasdifferentcombinationsofenablingpolicies,institutions,markets,socialcapital,andfinancial
meansdependingonthetypeoftechnologyandtheapplicationbeingconsidered(Bretschger,2005;
Dinica,2009;BlalockandGertler,2009;RaoandKishore,2010;Weyant,2011;Jnicke,2012).
Appropriatelyharnessingthesekindsofcapabilitiesandprocessesmaythemselvesrequirenovel
mechanismsandinstitutionalforms(BonvillianandWeiss,2009;Sagaretal.,2009).
Atthesametime,theroleofpublicpolicyincreatingdemandfortechnologiesthathaveapublic
goodsnaturecannotbeoverstated(seealsoSection3.11),althoughthesepoliciesneedtobe
designedcarefullytobeeffective.Inthecaseofrenewables,forexample,ithasbeenshownthat
intermittentpolicysubsidies,governmentschangingR&Dsupport,misalignmentsbetweenpolicy
levels,sectors,andinstitutionscangreatlyimpedethediffusionofthesetechnologies(Negroetal.,
2012).Similarly,inagriculture,whiletherearemanyintersectionsbetweenmitigationandSD
throughoptionssuchassustainableagriculture,thepotentialforleveragingthesesynergiesis
contingentonappropriateandeffectivepolicies(Smithetal.,2007)seealsoSections4.6.1and
11.3.
SometimestheremaybeaclearalignmentbetweenachievingequitableSDbenefitsandmeeting
climategoalssuchastheprovisionofcleanenergytotheruralpoor.Butinmeetingmultiple
objectives,potentialforconflictsandtradeoffscanalsoarise.Forexample,ourlikelycontinued
relianceonfossilfuels(IEA2012)underliesthecurrentexplorationofneworwellestablishedGHG
mitigationoptions,suchasbiofuelsornuclearpower,andotherapproacheslikecarbondioxide
captureandstorage(CCS)andgeoengineering,includingsolarradiationmanagementtechniques,
toavoidadangerousincreaseoftheEarth'stemperature(Crutzen,2006;Raschetal.,2008;
IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange,2012b).Whilesuchtechnologicaloptionsmayhelp
mitigateglobalwarming,theyalsoposepotentialadverseenvironmentalandsocialrisks,andthus
giverisetoconcernsabouttheirregulationandgovernance(Mitchell,2008;Pimenteletal.,2009;de
PaulaGomesandMuylaertdeAraujo,2011;ShraderFrechette,2011;Jackson,2011b;Scheideland
Sorman,2012;Scott,2013;DiazMaurinandGiampietro,2013)seeSections7.5and11.3.
Thepublicperceptionandacceptabilityoftechnologiesiscountryandcontextspecific,mediatedby
age,gender,knowledge,attitudestowardsenvironmentalrisksandclimatechange,andpolicy
procedures(Shackleyetal.,2005;Pidgeonetal.,2008;Wallquistetal.,2010;Corneretal.,2011;
Poumadereetal.,2011;VisschersandSiegrist,2012)andthereforeresolutionofthesekindsof
tradeoffsandconflictsmaynotbeeasy.Yetthetradeoffsandsynergiesbetweenthethree
dimensionsofSD,aswellastheimpactsonsocioecologicalsystemsacrossgeographicalscaleswill
needtobesystematicallyconsidered,whichinturnwillrequiretheacknowledgementofmultiple
stakeholderperspectives.Assessmentofenergytechnologyoptions,forexample,willneedto
includeimpactonlandscapesecologicalandsocialdimensionsaccountingformultiplevalues
andonenergydistributionandaccess(Wolsink,2007;ZografosandMartinezAlier,2009).
Therearealsosomecrosscuttingissues,suchasregimesfortechnologytransfer(TT)andintellectual
property(IP)thatareparticularlyrelevanttointernationalcooperationinmeetingtheglobal
challengeofpursuingequitableSDandmitigation,althoughprogressundertheUNFCCChasbeen
incomplete.Forexample,TTundertheCDMhasbeenlimitedtoselectiveconditionsandmainlytoa
fewcountries(Dechezleprtreetal.,2009;Seresetal.,2009;Wang,2010).IPrightsandpatentlaws
havebeenshownaspromotinginnovationinsomecountries(Khan,2005),althoughrecentwork
suggestsamorenuancedpicture(Moser,2013;HudsonandMinea,2013).Infact,IPprotectionhas
alsobeenregardedasapreconditionfortechnologytransferbut,again,realityhasprovenmore
complex(UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgrammeetal.,2010).Arecentstudyshowsthatinthe
windsector,therearepatentthickets,whichmightrestraintheextentandscopeofdissemination
ofwindpowertechnologies(Wangetal.,2013).Inpart,therearesuchdivergentviewsonthisissue
sinceIPandTTalsotouchuponeconomiccompetitiveness(Ockwelletal.,2010).Asnotedearlier,

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perspectivesareshapedbyperceivednationalcircumstances,capabilities,andneeds,yetthese
issuesdoneedtoberesolvedinfact,theremaybenosingleapproachthatwillmeetallneeds.
DifferentIPregimes,forexample,arerequiredtomeetdevelopmentobjectivesatdifferentstages
ofdevelopment(Correa,2011).Theimportanceofthisissueandthelackofconsensusprovide
impetusforfurtheranalysisoftheevidenceandforexplorationtodevelopIPandTTregimesthat
furtherinternationalcooperationtomeetclimate,SD,andequityobjectives.

4.3.7 Naturalresources
Countrieslevelofendowmentwithrenewableand/ornonrenewableresourcesinfluencesbutdoes
notdeterminetheirdevelopmentpaths.Thelocation,types,quantities,longtermavailabilityand
theratesofexploitationofnonrenewableresources,includingfossilfuelsandminerals,and
renewableresourcessuchasfertileland,forests,orfreshwateraffectnationaleconomies(e.g.,in
termsofGDP,tradebalance,andrentpotential),agriculturalandindustrialproductionsystems,the
potentialforcivilconflict,andcountries'roleinglobalgeopoliticalandtradesystems(Krausmannet
al.,2009;Muradianetal.,2012;CollierandGoderis,2012).Economiescanevolvetoreflectchanges
ineconomictrends,inpoliciesorinconsumptionpatterns,bothnationallyandinternationally.Inthe
contextofclimatechange,naturalresourceendowmentsaffectthelevelandprofileofGHG
emissions,therelativecostofmitigation,andthelevelofpoliticalcommitmenttoclimateaction.
Resourcerichcountriescharacterizedbygovernanceproblems,includingrentseekingbehaviour
andweakjudiciaryandpoliticalinstitutions,havemorelimitedcapacitytodistributeresource
extractionrentsandincreaseincomes(Mehlumetal.,2006;Pendergastetal.,2011;Bjorvatnetal.,
2012).Somehavenegativegenuinesavings,i.e.,theydonotfullyreinvesttheirresourcerentsin
foreignassetsorproductivecapital,whichinturnimpoverishespresentandfuturegenerationsand
underminesbothnaturalcapitalandhumandevelopmentprospects(Mehlumetal.,2006;vander
Ploeg,2011).Furthermore,thesecountriesalsofacerisksassociatedwithanoverspecializationon
agricultureandresourcebasedexportsthatcanundermineotherproductivesectors,e.g.,through
increasesinexchangeratesandarelianceonimportingcountrieseconomicgrowthtrajectories
(Muradianetal.,2012).Insomecountries,anincreaseinprimarycommodityexportscanleadtothe
riseofsocioenvironmentalconflictsduetotheincreasingexploitationofland,mineral,andother
resources(MartinezAlieretal.,2010;MitchellandThies,2012;Muradianetal.,2012).
Scholarshavenotreacheddefinitiveconclusionsontheinterrelationshipsbetweenresource
endowmentanddevelopmentpaths,includingimpactsonsocialwelfareandconflict,andprospects
forSD.Recentreviews,forexample,notetheneedtocontinueinvestigatingcurrentresourcebooms
andbustsanddocumentingthelatterseffectonnationaleconomies,policies,andsocialwellbeing,
andtodrawhistoricalcomparisonsacrosscountriesanddifferentinstitutionalcontexts(Wickand
Bulte,2009;Deacon,2011;vanderPloeg,2011).Itisclearthoughthatthestateandthoseactors
involvedinnaturalresourcesuseplayadeterminingroleinensuringafairdistributionofany
benefitsandcosts(Banaietal.,2011).Further,economicvaluationstudieshavenotedthat
systematicvaluationsofbothpositiveandnegativeexternalitiescaninformpolicymakingrelatingto
resourceexploitation,insomecasesshowingthattheexploitationoflandandmineralresources
maynotalwaysbesociallyoptimal,i.e.,thesocialandenvironmentalcostsofactionmaybehigher
thantheeconomicbenefitsofexploitation(deGroot,2006;Thampapillai,2011).
Theseconsiderationsarerelevantformitigationpolicyforatleastthreereasons.First,theyraise
questionsaboutifandhowcountriesinvestresourcerentsacrosseconomic,social,and
environmentalsectorsforSD(seeSection4.3.8).Second,theysuggestthatnationsorsubnational
actorswithabundantfossilfuelreserveshave,inprinciple,strongeconomicinterestinexploiting
them,andthusinopposingtheadoptionofpoliciesthatconstrainsuchexploitation.Thetimeliness
ofthisissueisunderscoredbythegrowingfinancialsectorattention(althoughnotyetacademic
attention)tothepotentialimpactofaglobalcarbonconstraintonthefossilsector(Grantham
InstituteandCTI2013;HSBCGlobalResearch,2013;Standard&Poors,2013).Thisraisestheissue

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ofhowtocompensateresourcerichcountriesforforgonebenefitsifnecessarytowintheir
participationininternationalmitigationefforts(Rival,2010;Waismanetal.,2013).Itsimilarlyraises
theissueofcompensating(orcircumventing)subnationalactorswhoarepoliticalpowerfulenough
toimpededomesticclimateefforts.Andthird,theysuggestthat,ifanygivenresourcerichcountry
facesincreasedexposuretoclimatevariabilityandextremeevents,theforgonebenefitsofresource
rentsmayundermineitsabilitytoabsorbincreasingadaptationcosts.Inthisregard,arecent
analysisoftherelationshipbetweencountriesadoptionofmitigationpoliciesandtheirvulnerability
toclimatechangeconfirmsthatcountriesthatmaysufferconsiderableimpactsofclimatechangein
thefuture,whichincludemanyresourcerichdevelopingcountries,donotshowastrong
commitmenttoeithermitigationoradaptation,whilecountriesexhibitingstrongpolitical
commitmentandactiontowardsmitigationarealsoactiveinpromotingadaptationpolicies(Tubiet
al.,2012).

4.3.8 Financeandinvestment
Thefinancialsystem,comprisingalargesetofprivateandpublicinstitutionsandactors,isthe
mediumbywhichhouseholds,firms,andcollectivitiesmanageinsurablerisksandfundinvestments
tosecurefuturereturns,therebylayingthefoundationsforfuturewellbeing.Assuch,itisakey
determinantofsocietysdevelopmentpathwayandthusitsprospectsforanSDtransition.
ThefinancialsystemischaracterizedbyfourstructuraltensionswiththeidealsofSD.First,its
dominantprivatecomponent(banksandfinancialmarkets)isfocusedoncommercialreturnsand
cannotspontaneouslyinternalizeenvironmentalandsocialspillovers,evenifsomeinvestors
interestinsustainableinvestmentisgrowing(UNPRI,2012).Climatechange,identifiedasthe
greatestandwidestrangingmarketfailureeverseen(SternandTreasury,2007),isbutone
obviousexampleofalargesocietallyimportantcostthatisneglectedbycapitalmarkets.Second,
theprivatecomponentofthefinancialsystemisalsolargelyunattunedtodistributiveissuesand
particularlyinsensitivetotheessentialneedsoftheworld'spoor,towhichoverridingpriority
shouldbegiven(WorldCommissiononEnvironmentandDevelopment,1987),evenifforeigndirect
investmentshavecontributedtooverallgrowthinemergingeconomies.Third,theinterestsof
futuregenerationsmaybeneglected(althoughoverinvestmentisalsopossibleseeGollier,(2013)
andwithinageneration,therearevariousgovernance,organizationalandsociologicalmechanisms
contributingtoshorttermism(Tonello,2006;MarginsonandMcAulay,2008).Fourth,therecent
crisishasledsometoconcludethatthefinancialsystemitselfisasourceofeconomicinstability
(Farmeretal.,2012),anissuereinforcedbytherecentfinancializationoftheglobaleconomy,with
acceleratedgrowthofthefinancialsectorrelativetotherealeconomy,andanincreasingroleof
thefinancialsysteminmediatingshorttermspeculationasdistinctfromlongterminvestment
(Epstein,2005;Krippner,2005;Palley,2007;Dore,2008).
Theseinherentproblemsinthefinancialsystemaresometimescompoundedbyhurdlesinthe
economicandinstitutionalenvironment.Thechallengesarefeltespeciallyinmanydeveloping
countries,whichfaceseveralinvestmentbarriersthataffecttheircapacitytomobilizeprivatesector
capitaltowardSDobjectivesandclimatechangemitigationandadaptation.Thesebarriersinclude
thecomparativelyhighoverallcostofdoingbusiness;marketdistortionarypoliciessuchassubsidies
forconventionalfuels;absenceofcreditworthyofftakers;lowaccesstoearlystagefinancing;
lowerpublicR&Dspending;toofewwealthyconsumerswillingtopayapremiumforgreen
products;socialandpoliticalinstability;poormarketinfrastructure;andweakenforcementofthe
regulatoryframeworks.Establishingbettermechanismsforleveragingprivatesectorfinancethrough
innovativefinancingcanhelp(EGTT,2008),buttherearealsorisksinrelyingontheprivatesectoras
marketbasedfinancefocusesonshorttermlending,andprivatefinancingduringepisodesof
abundantliquiditymaynotconstituteasourceofstablelongtermclimatefinance(Akyz,2012)
seeSection16.4forfurtherdiscussionandreferencesonbarriers,risks,andinnovativemechanisms.

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Whilesomedevelopingcountriesareabletomobilizedomesticresourcestofinanceeffortstoward
SD,theneedsformanydevelopingcountriesexceedtheirfinancialcapacity.Consequently,their
abilitytopursueSD,andclimatechangemitigationandadaptationactionsinparticular,canbe
severelyconstrainedbylackoffinance.Theinternationalprovisionoffinance,alongsidetechnology
transfer,canhelptoalleviatethisproblem,aswellasaccordwithprinciplesofequity,international
commitments,andargumentsofeffectivenessseeSections4.2.2and4.6.2.Underinternational
agreements,inparticularAgenda21andtheRioConventionsof1992,andreaffirmedinsubsequent
UNresolutionsandprogramsincludingthe2012UNConferenceonSustainableDevelopment
(UnitedNations,2012a),developedcountrieshavecommittedtoprovidefinancialresourcesto
developingcountriesthatarenewandadditionaltoconventionaldevelopmentassistance.

4.4 Production,trade,consumptionandwastepatterns
Theprevioussectionhashighlightedtheroleofbehavioursandlifestylesandthecomplex
interactionofthevalues,goals,andinterestsofmanyactorsinthepoliticaleconomyofSDand
equity.Inordertobetterunderstandthepossibilitiesanddifficultiestoequitablysustainwellbeing
inthefuture,thissectionexaminestheconsumptionofgoodsandservicesbyhouseholds,
consumptiontrendsanddisparities,andtherelationshipbetweenconsumptionandGHGemissions.
Italsodiscussesthecomponentsanddriversofconsumption,effortstomakeconsumption(and
production)moresustainable,andhowconsumptionaffectswellbeing.Inordertoshedlighton
importantdebatesaboutequityinmitigation,thischapteralsoreviewsapproachestoconsumption
basedaccountingofGHGemissions(carbonfootprinting)andtheirrelationshiptoterritorial
approaches.SowhilesubsequentchaptersanalyzeGHGemissionsassociatedwithspecificsectors
andtransformationpathways,thischapterfocusesonaparticulargroup(consumers)andexamine
theiremissionsinanintegratedway.
ThepossibilityofaSDpathwayfortheworldhingesondecoupling(vonWeizsckeretal.,1997,
2009;Jackson,2005b,2009).Weconsidertwotypesofdecouplingattheglobalscaleandinthelong
term:thedecouplingofmaterialresourceconsumption(includingfossilcarbon)andenvironmental
impact(includingclimatechange)fromeconomicgrowth(dematerialization);andthedecoupling
ofhumanwellbeingfromeconomicgrowthandconsumption.Thefirsttype(seeSections4.4.1and
4.4.3)involvesanincreasedmaterialefficiencyandenvironmentalefficiencyofproductionandis
generallyconsideredcrucialformeetingSDandequitygoals(UNEP,2011);yetwhilesome
dematerializationhasoccurred,absolutelevelsofresourceuseandenvironmentalimpacthave
continuedtorise,highlightingtheimportantdistinctionbetweenrelativeandabsolutedecoupling
(Krausmannetal.,2009).Thishasinspiredexaminationofthesecondtypeofdecoupling(Jackson,
2005b,2009;Assadourian,2010),includingthereductionofconsumptionlevelsinwealthier
countries.Weaddressthistopic(inSection4.4.4)byexamininghowincomeandincomeinequality
affectdimensionsofwellbeing.Whilethesecondtypeofdecouplingrepresentsastrongerform
thanthefirst,itisalsoamorecontroversialgoal,eventhoughtheunsustainabilityofexcessive
consumptionwashighlightedbyChapter4ofAgenda21(UnitedNations,1992c).

4.4.1 Consumptionpatterns,inequalityandenvironmentalimpact

4.4.1.1 Trendsinresourceconsumption
GloballevelsofresourceconsumptionandGHGemissionsshowstronghistoricaltrends,driven
primarilybydevelopmentsinindustrializedcountriesandemergingeconomies(seeSections5.2and
14.3).Theglobalannualuse(extraction)ofmaterialresourcesi.e.,oresandindustrialminerals,
constructionmaterials,biomass,andfossilenergycarriersincreasedeightfoldduringthe20th
century,reachingabout55Gtin2000,whiletheaverageresourceusepercapita(themetabolic
rate)doubled,reaching8.59.2tonnespercapitaperyearin2005(Krausmannetal.,2009;UNEP,
2011).Thevalueoftheglobalconsumptionofgoodsandservices(theglobalGDP)hasincreased

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sixfoldsince1960whileconsumptionexpenditurespercapitahasalmosttripled(Assadourian,
2010).ConsumptionbasedGHGemissions(carbonfootprintsseeSection4.4.2.2)increased
between1990and2009intheworldsmajoreconomies,excepttheRussianFederation,ranging
from0.10.2%peryearintheEU27,to4.86.0%peryearinChina(Petersetal.,2012)(seeSection
5.2.1).
GlobalresourceconsumptionhasrisenslowerthanGDP,especiallyafteraround1970,indicating
somedecouplingofeconomicdevelopmentandresourceuse,andsignifyinganaggregateincrease
inresourceproductivityofabout12%annually(Krausmannetal.,2009;UNEP,2011).While
dematerializationofeconomicactivityhasbeenmostnoticeableintheindustrializedcountries,
metabolicratesacrosscountriesremainhighlyunequal,varyingbyafactorof10ormoreduelargely
todifferencesinlevelofdevelopment,althoughthereisalsosignificantcrosscountryvariationin
therelationbetweenGDPandresourceuse(Krausmannetal.,2009;UNEP,2011).

4.4.1.2 Consumerismandunequalconsumptionlevels
Thespreadofmaterialconsumptionwithrisingincomesisoneofthemegadriversofglobal
resourceuseandenvironmentaldegradation(Assadourian,2010).Whilefortheworldsmanypoor
people,consumptionisdrivenmainlybytheneedtosatisfybasichumanneeds,itisincreasingly
commonacrossculturesthatpeopleseekmeaning,contentmentandacceptanceinconsumption.
Thispatternisoftenreferredtoasconsumerism,definedasaculturalparadigmwherethe
possessionanduseofanincreasingnumberandvarietyofgoodsandservicesistheprincipal
culturalaspirationandthesurestperceivedroutetopersonalhappiness,socialstatusandnational
success(Assadourian,2010,p.187).
Consumeristlifestylesinindustrializedcountriesseemtobeimitatedbythegrowingelites(Pow,
2011)andmiddleclasspopulationsindevelopingcountries(ClevelandandLaroche,2007;Gupta,
2011),exemplifiedbytheincreaseddemandforspacecoolinginemergingeconomies(Isaacandvan
Vuuren,2009).Togetherwiththeunequaldistributionofincomeintheworld,thespreadof
consumerismmeansthatalargeshareofgoodsandservicesproducedareluxuriesthatonlythe
wealthycanafford,whilethepoorareunabletoaffordevenbasicgoodsandservices(Khor,2011).
AdisproportionatepartoftheGHGemissionsarisingfromproductionarelinkedtotheconsumption
ofproductsbyarelativelysmallportionoftheworldspopulation,illustratedbythegreatvariation
inthepercapitacarbonfootprintbetweencountriesandregionsatdifferentincomelevels
(HertwichandPeters,2009;DavisandCaldeira,2010;Petersetal.,2011)(SeeSection14.3.1).The
carbonfootprintisstronglycorrelatedwithconsumptionexpenditure.Acrosscountries,Hertwich
andPeters(2009)foundanexpenditureelasticityof0.57forallGHGs:asnationsbecomewealthier,
thepercapitacarbonfootprintincreasesby57%foreachdoublingofconsumption.Within
countries,similarrelationshipshavebeenfoundbetweenhouseholdexpenditureandcarbon
footprint(DruckmanandJackson,2009;Hertwich,2011).Becausewealthiercountriesmeetahigher
shareoftheirfinaldemandfrom(net)importsthandolesswealthycountries,consumptionbased
emissionsaremorecloselyassociatedwithGDPthanareterritorialemissions,thedifferencebeing
theemissionsembodiedintrade(seeSection4.4.2aswellas5.2and14.3).

4.4.1.3 Effectofnonincomefactorsonpercapitacarbonfootprint
Nonincomefactorssuchasgeography,energysystem,productionmethods,wastemanagement
(GAIA,2012;Corstenetal.,2013),householdsize,diet,andlifestylealsoaffectpercapitacarbon
footprintsandotherenvironmentalimpacts(Tukkeretal.,2010a)sothattheeffectsofincreasing
incomevariesconsiderablybetweenregionsandcountries(Lenzenetal.,2006;Hertwich,2011;
Hommaetal.,2012),cities(JonesandKammen,2011)andbetweenruralandurbanareas(Lenzen
andPeters,2010).Inthisregard,theenvironmentalimpactofspecificconsumptionpatternshas
beenstudiedintenselyinrecentyears(DruckmanandJackson,2009;DavisandCaldeira,2010;
Tukkeretal.,2010a;Hertwich,2011).Atthegloballevel,HertwichandPeters(2009)foundthat

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foodistheconsumptioncategorywiththegreatestclimateimpact,accountingfornearly20%of
GHGemissions,followedbyhousing/shelter,mobility,services,manufacturedproducts,and
construction(SeeSections8.2,9.2,10.3,11.2,12.2).Foodandserviceswerealargershareinpoor
countries,whileathighexpenditurelevels,mobilityandtheconsumptionofmanufacturedgoods
causedthelargestGHGemissions(HertwichandPeters,2009).Thefactorsresponsibleforvariations
incarbonfootprintsacrosshouseholdsatdifferentscalesarefurtherdiscussedinSections5.3,5.5,
12.2and14.3.4.

4.4.2 Consumptionpatternsandcarbonaccounting

4.4.2.1 ChoiceofGHGaccountingmethod
NewGHGaccountingmethodshaveemergedandproliferatedinthelastdecade,inresponseto
interestin1)determiningwhethernationsarereducingemissions(BowsandBarrett,2010;Peters
etal.,2011,2012),2)allocatingGHGresponsibility(PetersandHertwich,2008a;b;Bowsand
Barrett,2010),3)assuringtheaccountabilityofcarbonmarkets(StechemesserandGuenther,2012),
4)determiningthefullimplicationsofalternativeenergytechnologies(vonBlottnitzandCurran,
2007;Martnezetal.,2009;Cherubinietal.,2009;Soimakallioetal.,2011)andofoutsourcingof
industrialproduction(SeeSection4.4.3.3)helpingcorporationsbecomegreener(Wiedmannetal.,
2009),and6)encouragingconsumerstoreducetheircarbonfootprints(BolwigandGibbon,2010;
JonesandKammen,2011).Methodsdifferonwhetherconsumersorproducersofproductsare
responsible;whetheremissionsembeddedinpastorpotentialreplacementofcapitalinvestments
areincluded;andwhetherindirectemissions,forexample,throughgloballandusechangeresulting
fromchangingproductprices,areincluded(Finkbeiner,2009;Plevinetal.,2010;Plassmannetal.,
2010).Thesemethodologicaldifferenceshavenormativeimplications.
SystemsofGHGemissionsaccountingareconstructedaccordingtocertainconventionsand
purposes(DavisandCaldeira,2010).Betterwaysmaybeexcessivelyexpensivegiventheplausible
importanceofthevalueofbetterinformationinthedecisionprocess.Someinterestswillpleadfor
standardizedtechniquesbasedonpastdatabecauseitfavoursthem.Otherswillarguefortailored
approachesthatmaketheirtechnologiesorproductslookgood.Producersfavourresponsibility
beingassignedtoconsumers,asdonationsthatarenetexportersofindustrialgoods.Controversies
overGHGemissionsaccountingapproachesplayintothebroaderissueofmitigationgovernance
(seeSection4.4.2.4).Andwhethercarbonmarketsareeffectiveornotdependsongoodaccounting
andenforcementbutwhatwillbeenforcedwilldependontheaccountingmeasuresagreedupon.
ThenextsectiondiscussesconsumptionbasedGHGemissionsaccounting.

4.4.2.2 Carbonfootprinting(consumptionbasedGHGemissionsaccounting)
Carbon(orGHG)accountingreferstothecalculationoftheGHGemissionsassociatedwith
economicactivitiesatagivenscaleorwithrespecttoagivenfunctionalunitincludingproducts,
households,firms,cities,andnations(Peters,2010;Pandeyetal.,2011).GHGaccountinghas
traditionallyfocusedonemissionsources,butrecentyearshaveseenagrowinginterestinanalyzing
thedriversofemissionsbycalculatingtheGHGemissionsthatoccuralongthesupplychainof
differentfunctionalunitssuchasthosejustmentioned(Peters,2010).Theresultofthis
consumptionbasedemissionsaccountingisoftenreferredtoascarbonfootprintevenifitinvolves
otherGHGsalongwithCO2.CarbonfootprintingstartsfromthepremisethattheGHGemissions
associatedwitheconomicactivityaregeneratedatleastpartlyasaresultofpeoplesattemptsto
satisfycertainfunctionalneedsanddesires(Lenzenetal.,2007;DruckmanandJackson,2009;Bows
andBarrett,2010).Theseneedsanddesirescarrytheconsumerdemandforgoodsandservices,and
therebytheproductionprocessesthatconsumeresourcesandenergyandreleasepollutants.
Emissiondriversarenotlimitedtoindividualsconsumptionbehaviour,however,butincludealso
thewidercontextsofconsumptionsuchastransportinfrastructure,productionandwastesystems,
andenergysystems(seebelowandSections7.3,8.2,9.2,10.3,11.2,12.2).

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Thereisnosingleacceptedcarbonfootprintingmethodology(Pandeyetal.,2011),noristhereone
widelyaccepteddefinitionofcarbonfootprint.Peters(2010)proposesthisdefinition,whichallows
forallpossibleapplicationsacrossscales:[t]hecarbonfootprintofafunctionalunitistheclimate
impactunderaspecificmetricthatconsidersallrelevantemissionsources,sinksandstorageinboth
consumptionandproductionwithinthespecifiedspatialandtemporalsystemboundary(pp.245).
Theemissionsassociatedwiththefunctionalunit(butphysicallynotpartoftheunit)arereferredto
asembodiedcarbon,carbonflowsorsimilarterms.(AnnexIIofthisreportdiscussesdifferent
carbonfootprintmethodologies,includingLifeCycleAssessment(LCA)andenvironmentally
extendedinputoutput(EIO)models.)Carbonfootprintshavebeenestimatedwithrespectto
differentfunctionalunitsatdifferentscales.Mostrelevanttotheanalysisofconsumptionpatterns
andmitigationlinkagesarethecarbonfootprintsofproductsandnations,discussedinturn.

4.4.2.3 Productcarbonfootprinting
Aproductcarbonfootprintincludesallemissionsgeneratedduringthelifecycleofagoodorservice
fromproductionanddistributiontoenduseanddisposalorrecycling.Carbonfootprintingof
products(andfirms)canenablearangeofmitigationactionsandcanhavecobenefits(Sinden,
2009;BolwigandGibbon,2010).Informingconsumersabouttheclimateimpactofproductsthrough
labellingorothermeanscaninfluencepurchasingdecisionsinamoreclimatefriendlydirectionand
atthesametimeenableproductdifferentiation(EdwardsJonesetal.,2009;WeberandJohnson,
2012).CarbonfootprintingcanalsohelpcompaniesreduceGHGemissionscosteffectivelyby
identifyingthevariousemissionsourceswithinthecompanyandalongthesupplychain(Sinden,
2009;Sundarakanietal.,2010;Lee,2012).Thoseemissionscanbereduceddirectly,orby
purchasingoffsetsincarbonmarkets.Thereisboththeoreticalandempiricalevidenceofapositive
relationshipbetweenacompanysenvironmentalandfinancialperformance(DelmasandNairn
Birch,2011;Griffinetal.,2012).Thespecificeffectofcarbonfootprintingoncompanyfinancial
performanceandinvestorvaluationisnotwellresearched,however,andtheresultsareambiguous:
intheUnitedKingdom,SullivanandGouldson(2012)foundlimitedinvestorinterestintheclimate
changerelateddataprovidedbyretailers,whileastudyfromNorthAmericaconcludesthat
investorsdocareaboutcompaniesGHGemissiondisclosures,whethertheseoccurthrougha
voluntaryschemeorinformalestimates(Griffinetal.,2012).2(SeealsoSection15.5.5)
Therearealsorisksassociatedwithproductcarbonfootprinting.Itcanaffectcompetitivenessand
tradebyincreasingcostsandreducedemandforproductsmadeabroad,includingindeveloping
countries,anditmayviolateWorldTradeOrganization(WTO)traderules(Brentonetal.,2009;
EdwardsJonesetal.,2009;Ericksonetal.,2012).AonesidedfocusonGHGemissionsinproduct
developmentandconsumerchoicecouldalsoinvolvetradeoffswithothersustainabilitydimensions
(Finkbeiner,2009;Laurentetal.,2012).Sotherearereasonstoadoptmorebroadlyencompassing
conceptsandtoolstoassessandmanagesustainabilityinrelationtotheconsumptionofgoodsand
services.

4.4.2.4 ConsumptionbasedandterritorialapproachestoGHGaccounting
ConsumptionbasedaccountingofGHGemissions(carbonfootprinting)atnationalleveldiffersfrom
theproductionbasedorterritorialframeworkbecauseofimportsandexportsofgoodsandservices
that,directlyorindirectly,involveGHGemissions(DavisandCaldeira,2010;Petersetal.,2011,
2012).Theterritorialframeworkallocatestoanation(orotherjurisdiction)thoseemissionsthatare
physicallyproducedwithinitsterritorialboundaries.Theconsumptionbasedframeworkassignsthe
emissionsreleasedthroughthesupplychainofgoodsandservicesconsumedwithinanation
irrespectiveoftheirterritorialorigin.Thedifferenceininventoriescalculatedbasedonthetwo

2
IntheUnitedStates,increasingcarbonemissionswasfoundtopositivelyimpactthefinancialperformanceof
firmswhenusingaccountingbasedmeasures,whiletheimpactwasnegativewhenusingmarketbased
performancemeasures(DelmasandNairnBirch,2011).

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frameworksaretheemissionsembodiedintrade(PetersandHertwich,2008b;BowsandBarrett,
2010).Weemphasizethatterritorialandconsumptionbasedaccountingofemissionsassuch
representpureaccountingidentitiesmeasuringtheemissionsembodiedingoodsandservicesthat
areproducedorconsumed,respectively,byanindividual,firm,country,region,etc.Responsibility
fortheseemissionsonlyarisesonceitisassignedwithinanormativeorlegalframework,suchasa
climateagreement,specifyingrightstoemitorobligationstoreduceemissionbasedononeofthese
metrics.Asdetailedbelow,thetwoapproachesfunctiondifferentlyinaglobalversusafragmented
climatepolicyregime.
Steckeletal.(2010)showthatwithinaglobalregimethatinternalizesacostofGHGemissions,the
twoapproachesaretheoreticallyequivalentintermsoftheirefficiencyininducingmitigation.For
example,withaglobalcapandtradesystemwithfullcoverage(i.e.,anefficientglobalcarbon
market)andgiveninitialemissionallocations,countriesexportinggoodsbenefitfromexport
revenues,withcostsrelatedtoGHGemissionsandanyothernegativeimpactsofproductionof
thosegoodspricedin,suchthatthechoiceofaccountingsystemhasnoinfluenceontheefficiency
ofproduction.Norwillitinfluencethewelfareofcountries,irrespectiveofbeingnetexportersor
importersofemissions,sincecostsassociatedwiththeseemissionsarefullyinternalizedinproduct
pricesandwillultimatelybebornebyconsumers.Inpractice,considerationssuchastransaction
costsandinformationasymmetrieswouldinfluencetherelativeeffectivenessandchoiceof
accountingsystem.
Inthecaseofafragmentedclimatepolicyregime,oneargumentputinfavourofaconsumption
basedframeworkisthat,unliketheterritorialapproach,theydonotallowcurrentemission
inventoriestobereducedbyoutsourcingproductionorrelyingmoreonimportstomeetfinal
demand.Hence,someauthors(e.g.,PetersandHertwich,(2008b);BowsandBarrett,(2010))argue
thatthisapproachgivesafairerillustrationofresponsibilityforcurrentemissions.Carbon
footprintingalsoincreasestherangeofmitigationoptionsbyidentifyingthedistributionofGHG
emissionsamongdifferentactivities,finaluses,locations,householdtypes,etc.Thisenablesabetter
targetingofpoliciesandvoluntaryactions(BowsandBarrett,2010;JonesandKammen,2011).
Ontheotherhand,reducingemissionsattheconsumptionendofsupplychainsrequireschanging
deeplyentrenchedlifestylepatternsandspecificbehavioursamongmanyactorswithdiverse
characteristicsandpreferences,asopposedtoamongthemuchfeweractorsemittingGHGsatthe
source.Ithasalsobeenpointedoutthatidenticaltotheaccountingofproductionbased
emissionsthereisnodirectonetoonerelationshipbetweenchangesinconsumptionbasedand
globalemissions(JakobandMarschinski,2012).Thatis,ifsomegoodsorserviceswerenot
consumedinagivencountry,globalemissionswouldnotnecessarilydecreasebythesameamount
ofemissionsgeneratedfortheirproduction,asthiscountrystradepartnerswouldadjusttheir
consumptionaswellasproductionpatternsinresponsetopricechangesresultingfromits
changeddemandprofile.ThishasbeenshownforChina(Petersetal.,2007)andIndia
(DietzenbacherandMukhopadhyay,2007):whilethesecountriesarelargenetexportersof
embodiedcarbon,territorialemissionswouldremainroughlyconstantorevenincreaseiftheywere
towithdrawfrominternationaltrade(andproducetheirentirecurrentconsumptiondomestically
instead).Hence,withoutinternationaltrade,consumptionbasedemissionsofthesecountriestrade
partnerswouldlikelybereduced,butnotglobalemissions.
ItisforthisreasonthatJakobandMarschinski(2012)arguethatamoredetailedunderstandingof
theunderlyingdeterminantsofemissionsisneededthanwhatiscurrentlyprovidedbyeither
territorialorconsumptionbasedaccounts,inordertoguidepoliciesthatwilleffectivelyreduce
globalemissionsinafragmentedclimatepolicyregime.Inparticular,abetterunderstandingof
systeminterrelationshipsinaglobaleconomyisrequiredinordertobeabletoattributehow,e.g.,
policychoicesinoneregionaffectglobalemissionsbytransmissionviaworldmarketpricesand
associatedchangesinproductionandconsumptionpatternsinotherregions.Furthermore,as

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marketdynamicsandresourceusearedrivenbybothdemandandsupply,itisconceivabletorely
onclimatepoliciesthattargettheconsumptionaswellastheproductionsideofemissions,asis
doneinsomeotherpolicyareas

4.4.3 SustainableconsumptionandproductionSCP
Theconceptsofsustainableconsumptionandsustainableproductionrepresent,respectively,
demandandsupplysideperspectivesonsustainability.Theeffortsbyproducerstoimprovethe
environmentalorsocialimpactofaproductarefutileifconsumersdonotbuythegoodorservice
(Moisanderetal.,2010).Conversely,sustainableconsumptionbehaviourdependsontheavailability
andaffordabilityofsuchproductsinthemarketplace.Theideaofsustainableconsumptionand
production(SCP)wasfirstplacedhighontheinternationalpolicyagendaatthe1992UNConference
onEnvironmentandDevelopmentandwasmadepartofAgenda21.In2003,a10yearFramework
ofProgrammesonSCPwasinitiated,whichwasformalizedinadocumentadoptedbythe2012UN
ConferenceonSustainableDevelopment(UnitedNations,2012b,p.2).Agreatvarietyofpublicand
privateSCPpoliciesandinitiativeshavedevelopedalongsidetheUNledinitiatives(seeSection
10.11.3),ashasalargebodyofresearchthatwereportonbelow.

4.4.3.1 Sustainableconsumptionandlifestyle
Arichresearchliteratureonsustainableconsumptionhasdevelopedoverthepastdecade,including
severalspecialissuesofinternationaljournals(Tukkeretal.,2010b;LeBlanc,2010;Kilbourne,2010;
Black,2010;SchraderandThgersen,2011).Severalbooks,suchasProsperitywithoutGrowth
(Jackson,2009),discusstheunsustainablenatureofcurrentlifestyles,developmenttrajectories,and
economicsystems,andhowthesecouldbechangedinmoresustainabledirections.Several
definitionsofsustainableconsumptionhavebeenproposedwithinpolicy,business,andacademia
(PogutzandMicale,2011).AtameetinginOsloin2005,agroupofscientistsagreedonthefollowing
broadandintegratingconceptualizationofsustainableconsumption:
Thefuturecourseoftheworlddependsonhumanitysabilitytoprovideahighqualityoflifefor
aprospectiveninebillionpeoplewithoutexhaustingtheEarthsresourcesorirreparably
damagingitsnaturalsystemsInthiscontext,sustainableconsumptionfocusesonformulating
strategiesthatfosterthehighestqualityoflife,theefficientuseofnaturalresources,andthe
effectivesatisfactionofhumanneedswhilesimultaneouslypromotingequitablesocial
development,economiccompetitiveness,andtechnologicalinnovation.(Tukkeretal.,2006)
Thisperspectiveencompassesbothdemandsideandproductionissues,andaddressesallthree
pillarsofSD(social,economic,andenvironmental)aswellasequityandwellbeing,illustratingthe
complexityofsustainableconsumptionanditsconnectionstootherissues.
Researchhasdemonstratedthatconsumptionpracticesandpatternsareinfluencedbyarangeof
economic,informational,psychological,sociological,andculturalfactors,operatingatdifferent
levelsorspheresinsocietyincludingtheindividual,thefamily,thelocality,themarket,andthe
workplace(Thgersen,2010).Furthermore,consumerspreferencesareoftenconstructedinthe
situation(ratherthanpreexisting)andtheirdecisionsarehighlycontextual(WeberandJohnson,
2009)andofteninconsistentwithvalues,attitudes,andperceptionsofthemselvesasresponsible
andgreenconsumersandcitizens(Barr,2006;deBarcellosetal.,2011)(seebelow,aswellas
Sections2.6.6and3.10).
Thesustainableconsumptionofgoodsandservicescanbeviewedinthebroadercontextoflifestyle
andeverydaylife.Conversely,sustainableconsumptionpracticesareboundupwithperceptionsof
identity,ideasofgoodlife,andsoon,andconsideredalongsideotherconcernssuchasaffordability
andhealth.Ethicalconsumptionchoicesarealsonegotiatedamongfamilymemberswithdivergent
prioritiesandinterpretationsofsustainability.Choosingasimplerlifestyle(voluntarysimplifying)
seemstoberelatedtoenvironmentalconcern(ShawandNewholm,2002;Huneke,2005),but
frugality,asamoregeneraltraitordisposition,isnot(Lastovickaetal.,1999;Pepperetal.,2009).

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Otherresearchdrawsattentiontotheconstraintsplacedonconsumptionandlifestylechoicesby
factorsbeyondtheinfluenceoftheindividual,familyorcommunity,whichtendstolock
consumptionintounsustainablepatternsbyreducinggreenagencyatthemicrolevel(Thgersen,
2005;PogutzandMicale,2011).Thesestructuralissuesincludeproductavailability,culturalnorms
andbeliefs,andworkingconditionsthatfavouraworkandspendlifestyle(Sanne,2002).Brulle
andYoung(2007)foundthatthegrowthinpersonalconsumptionintheUnitedStatesduringthe
20thcenturyispartlyexplainedbytheincreaseinadvertising.Accordingtothisstudy,theeffectof
advertisingonspendingisconcentratedonluxurygoods(householdappliancesandsuppliesand
automobiles)whileitisnonexistentinthefieldofbasicnecessities(foodandclothes),while
DruckmanandJackson(2010)foundthatintheUK,expendituresonfoodandclothesclearly
exceedednecessarylevels.
Thestrengthandpervasivenessofpoliticaleconomyfactorssuchasthosejustmentioned,andthe
inadequateattentiontothembypolicy,isanimportantcauseofthelackofrealprogresstowards
moresustainableconsumptionpatterns(Thgersen,2005;Tukkeretal.,2006;LeBlanc,2010).
Furthermore,theunsustainablelifestylesinindustrializedcountriesarebeingreplicatedbythe
growingelites(Pow,2011)andmiddleclasspopulationsindevelopingcountries(Clevelandand
Laroche,2007;Gupta,2011).Finally,mostSustainableConsumption(SC)studiesaredoneina
consumerculturecontext,whichlimitsdiscussionofinstanceswheresustainableconsumptionhas
preemptedconsumerism.

4.4.3.2 Consumersustainabilityattitudesandtherelationtobehaviour
Despitetheoverwhelmingimpactofstructuralfactorsonconsumerpractices,choicesand
behaviour,itiswidelyagreedthattheachievementofmoresustainableconsumptionpatternsalso
dependsonhowconsumersvalueenvironmentalqualityandotherdimensionsofsustainability
(Jackson,2005a;Thgersen,2005;BambergandMser,2007).Italsodependsonwhetherpeople
believethattheirconsumptionpracticesmakeadifferencetosustainability(FrantzandMayer,
2009;HanssandBhm,2010),whichinturnisinfluencedbytheirvalueprioritiesandhowmuch
theytrusttheenvironmentalinformationprovidedtothembyscientists,companies,andpublic
authorities(Kellstedtetal.,2008).Themotivationalrootsofsustainableconsumerchoicesseemto
besubstantiallythesame,althoughnotequallysalientindifferentnationalandculturalcontexts
(Thgersen,2009;ThgersenandZhou,2012).
InasurveyofEuropeanattitudestowardssustainableconsumptionandproduction(Gallup
Organisation,2008a),84%ofEUcitizenssaidthattheproductsimpactontheenvironmentisvery
importantorratherimportantwhenmakingpurchasingdecisions.Thisattitudeisrarelyreflected
inbehaviour,however.Thereisplentyofevidencedemonstratingthepresenceofanattitude
behaviourorvaluesactiongapwherebyconsumersexpressinggreenattitudesfailtoadopt
sustainableconsumptionpatternsandlifestyles(Barr,2006;Youngetal.,2010;deBarcellosetal.,
2011).Toalargemeasure,thisgapcanbeattributedtomanyothergoalsandconcernscompeting
forthepersonslimitedattention(WeberandJohnson,2009).Thisobservationisreflectedinthe
substantialdifferenceinthelevelofenvironmentalconcernthatEuropeansexpressinopinionpolls
whentheissueistreatedinisolation,andwhentheenvironmentisassessedinthecontextofother
importantsocietalissues.Forexample,in2008,64%ofEuropeanssaidprotectingtheenvironment
wasveryimportanttothempersonallywhentheissuewaspresentedinisolation(Gallup
Organisation,2008b)whileonly4%pointedatenvironmentalpollutionasoneofthetwomost
importantissuesfacingtheircountryatthemoment(GallupOrganisation,2008a).Whenthereare
manyimportantissuescompetingforthepersonslimitedattentionandresources,thosethat
appearmostpressingineverydaylifearelikelytoprevail.
Thelikelihoodthatapersonwillactonhisorherenvironmentalconcernisfurtherdiminishedby
factorsaffectingeverydaydecisionsandbehaviour,includingthestructuralfactorsmentioned
above,butalsomorespecificfactorssuchashabit,hightransactionscosts(i.e.,timeforinformation

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searchandprocessingandproductsearch),availability,affordability,andtheinfluenceofnongreen
criteriasuchasquality,size,brand,anddiscounts(Youngetal.,2010).Someofthesefactorsvary
acrossdifferentproductcategoriesandwithinsectors(McDonaldetal.,2009).Theimpactofallof
theseimpedingfactorsissubstantial,callingintoquestionthecapacityofthegreenconsumerto
effectivelyadvancesustainableconsumptionandproduction(Csutora,2012)and,moregenerally,
theindividualisticviewoftheconsumerasapowerfulmarketactor(Moisanderetal.,2010).
Thirdpartyecolabelsanddeclarationshaveproventobeaneffectivetooltotransformconsumer
sustainabilityattitudesintobehaviourinmanycases(Thgersen,2002).Oneofthereasonsisthata
trustedlabelcanfunctionasachoiceheuristicinthedecisionsituation,allowingtheexperienced
consumertomakesustainablechoicesinafastandfrugalway(seeSection2.6.5andThgersenet
al.,2012).Labelingproductswiththeircarbonfootprintmayhelptocreatenewgoals(e.g.,to
reduceCO2emissions)andtoattractandkeepattentiononthosegoals,inthecompetitionbetween
goals(WeberandJohnson,2012).InEurope,72%ofEUcitizensthoughtthatcarbonlabellingshould
bemandatory(GallupOrganisation,2008a).InAustralia,Vanclayetal.(2010)foundastrong
purchasingresponseof20%whenagreenlabelledproduct(indicatingrelativelylowlifecycleCO2
emissions)wasalsothecheapest,andamuchweakerresponsewhengreenlabelledproductswere
notthecheapest.Hence,consumers,atleastindevelopedcountries,showinterestinproduct
carbonfootprintinformationandmanyconsumerswouldprefercarbonlabelledproductsandfirms
overothers,otherthingsbeingequal(BolwigandGibbon,2010).Yettheimpedingfactorsandthe
relatedattitudebehaviourgaplimithowfaronecangettowardssustainableconsumptionwith
labellingandotherinformationbasedmeansalone.
Researchonthesetopicsinthedevelopingworldislacking.Consideringthenotionofahierarchyof
needs(Maslow,1970;ChaiandMoneta,2012)andthechallengesfacingconsumersindeveloping
countries,carbonfootprintsandotherenvironmentaldeclarationsmightbeseenasaluxuryconcern
thatonlydevelopedcountriescanafford.Counteringthisview,Kvalyetal.(2012)find
environmentalconcernindevelopingcountriesatthesamelevelasindevelopedcountries.
Furthermore,ecolabelledproductsincreasinglyappearatretaillevelindevelopingcountries
(RoitnerSchobesbergeretal.,2008;ThgersenandZhou,2012).

4.4.3.3 Sustainableproduction
Researchandinitiativesonsustainableproductionhavebeenconcernedwithincreasingthe
resourceefficiencyof,andreducingthepollutionandwastefrom,theproductionofgoodsand
servicesthroughtechnologicalinnovationsinprocessandproductdesignattheplantandproduct
levels,and,morelately,throughsystemwideinnovationsacrossvaluechainsorproduction
networks(PogutzandMicale,2011).Policiesthatincentivizecertainproductchoiceshavealsobeen
developed(seeSection10.11.3).Ecoefficiency(SchmidheinyandWBSCD,1992)isthemain
managementphilosophyguidingsustainableproductioninitiativesamongcompanies(Pogutzand
Micale,2011)andisexpressedascreatedvalueorprovidedfunctionalitypercausedenvironmental
impact.Movingtowardsamoreecoefficientproductionthusmeanscreatingthesameorhigher
valueorfunctionalitywhilecausingalowerenvironmentalimpact(relativeorevenabsolute
decoupling).Thisinvolvesconsiderationofmultipleimpactsacrossscales,rangingfromglobal
impactslikeclimatechangeoverregionalimpactsassociatedwithairandwaterpollution,tolocal
impactscausedbyuseoflandorwater.
Astrongincreaseintheecoefficiencyofproductionisaprerequisitefordevelopingasustainable
society(PogutzandMicale,2011).TheI=PATequationexpressestheenvironmentalimpactIasa
productofthepopulationnumberP,theaffluenceA(valuecreatedorconsumedpercapita),anda
technologyfactorTperceivedasthereciprocalofecoefficiency.Consideringtheforeseeablegrowth
inPandA,andthecurrentunsustainablelevelofIformanyenvironmentalimpactsitisclearthat

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theecoefficiency(1/T)mustincreasemanytimes(afactor4to20)3toensureasustainable
production.Whileaprerequisite,eventhiskindofincreasesinecoefficiencymaynotbesufficient
sinceAandTarenotmutuallyindependentduetothepresenceofreboundincludingmarket
effects;indeed,sometimesareductioninT(increasedecoefficiency)isaccompaniedbyaneven
greatergrowthinA,therebyincreasingtheoverallenvironmentalimpactI(PogutzandMicale,
2011).(ArelatedconcepttoI=PATistheKayaidentity,seeSection5.3)
Withitsfocusontheprovidedfunctionanditsbroadcoverageofenvironmentalimpacts,LCAis
frequentlyusedforevaluationoftheecoefficiencyofproductsorproductionactivities(Hauschild,
2005;Finnvedenetal.,2009)(seeAnnexII.4.2).LCAhasbeenstandardizedbytheInternational
OrganizationforStandardization(ISO14040andISO14044)andisakeymethodologyunderlying
standardsforecolabellingandenvironmentalproductdeclarations.LCAisalsotheanalyticaltool
underlyingDFE(designforenvironment)methods(Bhanderetal.,2003;Hauschildetal.,2004).
Withtheglobalizationandoutsourcingofindustrialproduction,analyzingtheentireproduct
lifecycle(orproductchain)fromresourceextractiontoendoflifegainsincreasedrelevance
whenoptimizingtheenergyandmaterialefficiencyofproduction.Alifecycleapproachwillreveal
thepotentialproblemshiftingthatisinherentinoutsourcingandthatmayleadtoincreasedoverall
resourceconsumptionandGHGemissionsoftheproductoveritslifecycleinspiteofreduced
impactsofthemothercompany(ShuiandHarriss,2006;LiandHewitt,2008;Herrmannand
Hauschild,2009).Thisiswhyalifecycleperspectiveisappliedwhencalculatingthecarbonfootprint.
Indeed,alifecyclebasedassessmentisgenerallyneededtoachieveresourceandemissions
optimizationacrosstheproductchain.Theusestagecanbeespeciallyimportantforproductsthat
useelectricityorfuelstofunction(Wenzeletal.,1997;SamarasandMeisterling,2008;Yungetal.,
2011;Sharmaetal.,2011).Improvementpotentialsalongproductchainscanbelarge,inparticular
whencompaniesshiftfromsellingonlyproductstodeliveringproductservicesystems,often
increasingthenumberofusesoftheindividualproduct(ManziniandVezzoli,2003).Exchangeof
flowsofwastematerialsorenergycanalsocontributetoincreasingecoefficiency.Underthe
headingofindustrialsymbiosis,suchmutuallybeneficialrelationshipsbetweenindependent
industrieshaveemergedatmultiplelocations,generallyleadingtosavingsofenergyandsometimes
alsomaterialsandresources(ChertowandLombardi,2005;Chertow,2007;Sokkaetal.,2011)(See
Section10.5).
WhilethebroadcoverageofenvironmentalimpactssupportedbyLCAisrequiredtoavoidunnoticed
problemshiftingbetweenimpacts,anarrowerfocusonclimatechangemitigationinrelationto
productionwouldbesupportedbyconsideringenergyefficiency,whichcanbeaddressedat
differentlevels:theindividualprocess,theproductionfacility,theproductchain,andtheindustrial
system(industrialsymbiosis).Attheprocesslevel,theoperationoftheindividualprocessand
considerationoftheusestageenergyefficiencyinthedesignofthemachinetoolsandproduction
equipmentcanbeaddressed(seeSection10.4).Improvementsinenergyefficiencyinmanufacturing
havefocusedonboththedesignandoperationofavarietyofprocesses(Gutowskietal.,2009;
Duflouetal.,2010;Herrmannetal.,2011;KaraandLi,2011),findingimprovementpotentialsatthe
individualprocesslevelofupto70%(Duflouetal.,2012),andattheplantlevelbyreusinge.g.,
wasteheatfromoneprocessforheatinginanother(Hayakawaetal.,1999).Exergyanalysisand
energypinchanalysiscanbeusedtoidentifypotentialsforreutilizationofenergyflowsinother
processes(CreytsandCarey,1999;Bejan,2002).
Researchonthesocialdimensionsofproductionsystemshaveaddressedsuchissuesasworker
conditions(Riisgaard,2009),farmincome(Bolwigetal.,2009),smallproducerinclusionintomarkets
andvaluechains(Bolwigetal.,2010;MitchellandColes,2011)andtheroleofstandardsinfostering

3
Factor4tofactor20increasescanbecalculateddependingontheexpectedincreasesinPandAandthe
neededreductioninI(vonWeizsckeretal.,1997;SchmidtBleek,2008).

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sustainability(Gibbonetal.,2010;Bolwigetal.,2013).Recently,theLCAmethodologyhasbeen
elaboratedtoincludeassessmentofsocialimpactssuchaslabourrights(Dreyeretal.,2010),in
ordertosupporttheassessmentofproblemshiftingandtradeoffsbetweenenvironmentaland
socialdimensions(Hauschildetal.,2008).

4.4.4 Relationshipbetweenconsumptionandwellbeing
Asnotedearlier,globalmaterialresourceconsumptioncontinuestoincreasedespitesubstantial
gainsinresourceproductivityorecoefficiency,causingfurtherincreasesinGHGemissionsand
overallenvironmentaldegradation.Inthislightitisrelevanttodiscusswhetherhumanwellbeingor
happinesscanbedecoupledfromconsumptionorgrowth(AhuviaandFriedman,1998;Jackson,
2005b;Tukkeretal.,2006).Wedothisherebyexaminingtherelationshipbetweendifferent
dimensionsofwellbeingandincome(andincomeinequality)acrosspopulationsandovertime.
Happinessisanambiguousconceptthatisoftenusedasacatchwordforsubjectivewellbeing
(SWB).SWBismultidimensionalandincludesbothcognitiveandaffectivecomponents(Kahneman
etal.,2003).Cognitivewellbeingreferstotheevaluativejudgmentsindividualsmakewhenthey
thinkabouttheirlifeandiswhatisreportedinlifesatisfactionorladderoflifedata,whereas
affectiveoremotionalwellbeingreferstotheemotionalqualityofanindividualseveryday
experienceascapturedbysurveysabouttheintensityandprevalenceoffeelingsalongtheday
(KahnemanandDeaton,2010).Emotionalwellbeinghasbeendefinedasthefrequencyand
intensityofexperiencesofjoy,fascination,anxiety,sadness,anger,andaffectionthatmakesones
lifepleasantorunpleasant(KahnemanandDeaton,2010,p.16489).CamfieldandSkevington
(2008)examinetherelationshipbetweenSWBandqualityoflife(QoL)asusedintheliterature.They
findthatSWBandQoLarevirtuallysynonymous;thattheybothcontainasubstantialelementoflife
satisfaction,andthathealthandincomearekeydeterminantsofSWBorQoL,whilelowincomeand
highinequalityarebothassociatedwithpoorhealthandhighmorbidity.
TheEasterlinparadoxreferstoanemergingbodyofliteraturesuggestingthatwhilethereislittle
ornorelationshipbetweenSWBandtheaggregateincomeofcountriesorlongtermGDPgrowth,
withincountriespeoplewithmoreincomearehappier(Easterlin,1973,1995).Absoluteincomeis,it
isargued,onlyimportantforhappinesswhenincomeisverylow,whilerelativeincome(orincome
equality)isimportantforhappinessatawiderangeofincomelevels(Layard,2005;Clarketal.,
2008).Theseinsightshavebeenusedtoquestionwhethereconomicgrowthshouldbeaprimary
goalofgovernmentpolicy(forrichcountries),insteadof,forexample,focusingonreducing
inequalitywithincountriesandglobally,andonmaximizingsubjectivewellbeing.Forinstance,
Assadourian(2010)arguesagainstconsumerismonthegroundsthatincreasedmaterialwealth
aboveacertainthresholddoesnotcontributetosubjectivewellbeing.
TheEasterlinparadoxhasbeencontestedincomparisonsacrosscountries(Deaton,2008)andover
time(StevensonandWolfers,2008;Sacksetal.,2010),onthebasisoftheWorldGallupsurveyof
wellbeing.Theseworksestablishaclearlinearrelationshipbetweenaveragelevelsofladderoflife
satisfactionandthelogarithmofGDPpercapitaacrosscountries,andfindnosatiationthreshold
beyondwhichaffluencenolongerenhancessubjectivewellbeing.Theirtimeseriesanalysisalso
suggeststhateconomicgrowthisonaverageassociatedwithrisinghappinessovertime.Onthis
basistheypictureastrongroleforabsoluteincomeandlessforrelativeincomecomparisonsin
determininghappiness.
Theseresultscontrastwithstudiesofemotionalwellbeing,whichgenerallyfindaweakrelationship
betweenincomeandwellbeingathigherincomelevels.IntheUnitedStates,forexample,
KahnemanandDeaton(2010)findaclearsatiationeffect:beyondaroundUSD201075,000annual
householdincome(justabovethemeanUnitedStateshouseholdincome)furtherincreasesin
incomenolongerimproveindividualsemotionalwellbeing(includingaspectssuchasspendingtime

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withpeopletheylike,avoidingpainanddisease,andenjoyingleisure)(p.16492).4Butevenforlife
satisfaction,thereiscontrastingevidence.Inparticular,Deaton(2008)findsmuchvariationofSWB
betweencountriesatthesamelevelofdevelopment,andSacksetal.(2010)findsthelongterm
positiverelationshipbetweenincomeandlifesatisfactiontobeweaklysignificantandsensitiveto
thesampleofcountries(seealsoGraham(2009),Easterlinetal.(2010),DiTellaandMacCulloch
(2010)).AnimportantphenomenonisthatallcomponentsofSWB,invariousdegrees,adapttomost
changesinobjectiveconditionsoflife,exceptafewthings,suchasphysicalpain(Kahnemanetal.,
2003;Layard,2005;Clarketal.,2008;Graham,2009;DiTellaandMacCulloch,2010).
ThegreatvariabilityofSWBdataacrossindividualsandcountriesandtheadaptationphenomenon
suggestthatthesedatadonotprovideindicesofwellbeingthatarecomparableacrossindividuals
andovertime.Respondentshavedifferentstandardswhentheyanswersatisfactionquestionsat
differenttimesorindifferentcircumstances.Therefore,theweaknessoftheobservedlinkbetween
growthandSWBisnotonlydebated,butitisquitecompatiblewithastrongandfirmdesireinthe
populationforevergrowingmaterialconsumption(Fleurbaey,2009).Decouplinggrowthandwell
beingmaybemorecomplicatedthansuggestedbyrawSWBindicators.
Decouplingindividualwellbeingfromconsumptionmaybefraughtwithcontroversies,but
decouplingsocialwelfarefromaverageconsumptionmightbepossibleviainequalityreduction.It
hasbeenfoundthatinequalityinsocietyhasamarkednegativeeffectonaverageSWB.For
example,Oishietal.(2011)foundthatovera37yearperiod,Americanswerelesshappyonaverage
duringyearswithgreaterincomeinequality.Thiswasexplainedbythefactthatlowerincome
respondents"trustedotherpeoplelessandperceivedotherpeopletobelessfairintheyearswith
morenationalincomeinequality"(Oishietal.,2011,p.1095).Thepotentialdecouplingofsocial
welfarefromaverageconsumptionisevenmoreobviousifsocialwelfareisdefinedinawaythat
givesprioritytothosewhoarelesswelloff(Atkinson,1970).

4.5 Developmentpathways
Sustainabledevelopmentprovidesaframeworkfortheevaluationofclimatepolicies.Thisis
particularlyusefulinviewofthefactthatagivenconcentrationpathwayorclimateobjectivecan
typicallybeachievedthroughvariouspoliciesanddevelopmentpathwaysinducingdifferentimpacts
ontheeconomy,thesociety,andotheraspectsoftheenvironment.Integratedmodelsprovide
valuabletoolsfortheanalysisofpathways,thoughmostmodelssufferfromlimitationsanalyzedin
thissection.

4.5.1 Definitionandexamples
Thoughwidelyusedintheliterature,theconceptofdevelopmentpathwayhasrarelybeendefined.5
AccordingtoAR4,adevelopmentpathisanevolutionbasedonanarrayoftechnological,
economic,social,institutional,cultural,andbiophysicalcharacteristicsthatdeterminethe
interactionsbetweenhumanandnaturalsystems,includingconsumptionandproductionpatternsin
allcountries,overtimeataparticularscale(IPCC,2007,Glossary,p.813).AR4alsoindicatesthat
alternativedevelopmentpathsrefertodifferentpossibletrajectoriesofdevelopment,the
continuationofcurrenttrendsbeingjustoneofthemanypaths.ThoughAR4definesdevelopment
pathwaysasglobal,theconcepthasalsobeenusedatregional(e.g.,LiandZhang,2008),national
(e.g.,Poteete,2009)andsubnationalscales(e.g.Dusyketal.,2009)atprovincialscaleand
(YigitcanlarandVelibeyoglu,2008)atcityscale.Inthepresentreport,adevelopmentpathway
characterizesalltheinteractionsbetweenhumanandnaturalsystemsinaparticularterritory,
regardlessofscale.

4
Thisresultisbasedoncrosssectionaldataanddonotrefertotheeffectsofachangeinapersonsincome.
5
Developmentpathanddevelopmentpathwayaresynonymous.

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Theconceptofdevelopmentpathwayisholistic.Itisbroaderthanthedevelopmenttrajectoryofa
particularsector,orofaparticulargroupofpeoplewithinasociety.Thus,awiderangeofeconomic,
social,andenvironmentalindicatorsarenecessarytodescribeadevelopmentpathway,notallof
whichmaybeamenabletoquantitativerepresentation.AsdefinedbyAR4,however,apathwayis
notarandomcollectionofindicators.Ithasaninternalnarrativeandcausalconsistencythatcanbe
capturedbythedeterminantsoftheinteractionsbetweenhumanandnaturalsystems.The
underlyingassumptionisthattheobserveddevelopmenttrajectoryasrecordedbyvarious
economic,social,andenvironmentalindicatorscanbeexplainedbyidentifiabledrivers.Thisroots
theconceptofdevelopmentpathwayinthe(dominant)intellectualtraditionaccordingtowhich
historyhassomedegreeofintelligibility(whileanothertraditionholdsthathistoryisachaoticsetof
eventsthatisessentiallynotintelligible(Schopenhauer,1819).
Theliteratureondevelopmentpathwayshastwomainbranches.Abackwardlookingbodyofwork
describespastandpresentdevelopmenttrajectoriesforgiventerritoriesandexplorestheir
determinants.Forexample,mostofthegrowthliteratureaswellasalargepartofthe(macro)
developmentliteraturefallintothiscategory.6ThisbodyofworkisdiscussedinSection4.3aswellas
inseveralotherchapters.Inparticular,Section5.3.1reviewsthedeterminantsofGHGemissions,
Section12.2reviewspasttrajectoriesofhumansettlements,andSection14.3discussespast
trajectoriesofdevelopmentatregionalscale.Inaddition,forwardlookingstudiesconstruct
plausibledevelopmentpathwaysforthefutureandexaminethewaysbywhichdevelopmentmight
besteeredtowardsonepathwayoranother.Box4.3brieflyreviewsthemainforwardlooking
developmentpathwayspublishedsinceAR4.MostofChapter6isdevotedtoforwardlooking
studies.

Box 4.3. Forward-Looking Development Pathways: new developments since AR4

Forwardlookingdevelopmentpathwaysaimatilluminatingpossiblefutures,andatprovidinga
senseofhowthesefuturesmightbereached(oravoided).Forwardlookingpathwayscanbe
constructedusingvarioustechniques,rangingfromsimulationswithnumericalmodelstoqualitative
scenarioconstructionorgroupforecastingexercises(vanNottenetal.,2003).
NewsetsofforwardlookingdevelopmentpathwayshavebeenproposedsincetheAR4review(in
Sathayeetal.(2007),Section12.2.1.2).Attheglobalscale,theyinclude,interalia,theclimatesmart
pathway(WorldBank,2010),theTellusInstitutescenarios(Raskinetal.(2010)),anddegrowth
strategies(MartnezAlieretal.,2010)orthescenariosdevelopedundertheIntegratedAssessment
ModellingConsortium(IAMC)umbrella(Mossetal.,2010)toupdatethe2000SRESscenarios
(NakicenovicandSwart,2000).Pathwayshavealsobeenproposedforspecificsectors,suchas
health(EtienneandAsamoaBaah,2010),agriculture(Paillardetal.,2010),biodiversity(Leadleyet
al.,2010;Pereiraetal.,2010),andenergy(AyresandAyres,2009).
Atthenationalandregionallevels,theemergenceofthegreengrowthagenda(OECD,2011)has
spurredthedevelopmentofmanyshorttomediumtermexercises(e.g.RepublicofKorea,2009;
Jaegeretal.,2011);aswellasreneweddiscussionsonSDtrajectories(e.g.Jupestaetal.,2011).
Similarly,thereisgrowingresearchonthewaysbywhichsocietiescantransitiontowardsalow
carboneconomy,consideringnotonlymitigationandadaptationtoclimatechange,butalsothe

6
Thisliteraturecanitselfbedividedintwomaingroups:papersaimedatidentifyingindividualmechanisms
thatdrivedevelopmenttrajectories,andpapersaimedatidentifyingbroadpatternsofdevelopment.One
exampleoftheformeristheliteratureontherelationshipsbetweenGDPandemissions,discussedinChapter
5,andinSection4.1.Oneexampleofthelatteristhesocalledinvestmentdevelopmentpathliterature,
which,followingDunning(1981),identifiesstagesofdevelopmentforcountriesbasedonthedirectionof
foreigndirectinvestmentflowsandthecompetitivenessofdomesticfirmsoninternationalmarkets.

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needforsocial,economic,andtechnological(Shuklaetal.,2008)(see6.6.2forabroaderreview).
Forinstance,studiesinChinashowthatcontrollingemissionswithoutproperpoliciestocounteract
thenegativeeffectswillhaveanadverseimpactonthecountryseconomicdevelopment,reducing
itspercapitaincomeandthelivingstandardsofbothurbanandruralresidents(WangCanetal.,
2005;WangKe,2008).Chinaisdevelopingindicatorsforlowcarbondevelopmentandlowcarbon
society(UN(2010),withmanycitations)withspecificindicatorstestedonselectedcitiesand
provinces(Fu,Jiafengetal.,2010),providingusefuldataonchallengesandgapsaswellastheneed
forclearlydefinedgoalsanddefinitionsoflowcarbonanditsSDcontext.

4.5.2 Transitionbetweenpathways
Backwardlookingstudiesrevealthatpastdevelopmentpathwayshavedifferedinmanyrespects,
notablyintermsofGHGemissionsbecauseofdifferencesin,interalia,fuelsupplymix,location
patterns,structureofeconomicactivity,compositionofhouseholddemand,etc.evenacross
countrieswithotherwiseverysimilareconomiccharacteristics.Similarly,forwardlookingstudies
pointtoverycontrasted,yetequallyplausible,futuresintermsofGHGemissions.Shiftingfroma
hightoalowemissionsdevelopmentpathwayrequiremodifyingthetrajectoryofthesystemthat
generates(amongothers)GHGemissions.Itthusrequirestimeaswellasactionovermultiple
dimensionsofdevelopment(location,technology,lifestyles,etc.).Yet,shiftingfromahightoalow
emissionsdevelopmentpathwaycouldpotentiallybeasimportantforclimatechangemitigationas
implementingclimatepolicies(Halsnaesetal.,2011).
Acentralthemeofthepresentreportistoexploretheconditionsofatransitiontowards
developmentpathwayswithloweremissions,globally(Chapter6),sectorally(Chapters712),and
regionally(Chapters1315).Toframethesesubsequentdiscussions,thepresentsectiondoestwo
things.First,itdiscussestheobstaclestochangingcoursebyintroducingthekeynotionsofpath
dependenceandlockins(4.5.2.1).Second,examplesandlessonsfromthetechnologytransition
literaturearediscussed(4.5.2.2).Thepolicyandinstitutionalaspectsofbuildingstrategiesto
transitionbetweenpathwaysarediscussedinthesubsequentchapters.7

4.5.2.1 Pathdependenceandlockins
Pathdependenceisthetendencyforpastdecisionsandeventstoselfreinforce,therebydiminishing
andpossiblyexcludingtheprospectsforalternativestoemerge.Pathdependenceisimportantfor
analyzingtransitionsbetweendevelopmentpathways.Forexample,developmentofintercity
highwaysmaymakefurtherextensionoftheroadnetworkmorelikely(ifonlyforfeederroads)but
alsomakefurtherextensionofrailnetworkslesscosteffectivebydrawingouttrafficandinvestment
financing(seeSection12.5),therebydiminishingtheprospectsforalternativetransportation
investments.
Chiefamongthemechanismsthatunderliepathdependenceareincreasingreturnsmechanisms
(Page,2006)inwhichanoutcomeinoneperiodincreasestheprobabilityofgeneratingthatsame
outcomeinthenextperiod.Increasingreturnsisalargegroupthatcomprises,interalia,increasing
returnstoscale,learningbydoing,inducedtechnologicalchange,oragglomerationeconomies.As
(ShaliziandLecocq,2013)note,theconceptofincreasingreturnshasalongtraditionineconomic
history,andtheimplicationsofincreasingreturnsmechanismshavebeensystematicallyexplored
overthepastthreedecadesorso,notablyaroundissuesofmonopolisticcompetition(Dixitand
Stiglitz,1977),internationaltrade(Krugman,1979),economicgeography(Fujitaetal.,1999),

7
Thekeypoint,asemphasizedinAR4,isthatadevelopmentpathwayresultsfromtheinteractionsof
decisionsbymultipleagents,atalllevels.Thusingeneralpublicpolicies7alonecannottriggerchangesin
pathways,andcooperationbetweengovernments,markets,andcivilsocietiesarenecessary(Sathayeetal.,
2007).

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economicgrowth(Romer,1990),industrialorganizations,oradoptionoftechnologies(Arthur,
1989).
Yetincreasingreturnsareneithersufficientnornecessarytogeneratepathdependence.Theyare
notsufficientbecausecompetingincreasingreturnscancancelout.Andtheyarenotnecessary
becauseothermechanismsmightgeneratepathdependence.Forexample,decisionsthatinvolve
theuseofscarceresources,suchasland,labourorexhaustiblenaturalresourcesconstrainfuture
agentsoptions,eithertemporarily(forlabour)orpermanently(forexhaustibleresources).Similarly,
inthepresenceofswitchingcostse.g.,costsattachedtoprematurereplacementoflonglived
capitalstockdecisionsmadeatonepointintimecanpartiallyortotallylockindecisionmakers
subsequentchoices(FarrellandKlemperer,2007).Also,pathdependencecanemergefrom
coordinationfailuresincomplexsystemsthatrequirehighdegreeofarticulationbetweenactors
(Yarime,2009).Thekeymessageisthatitisessentialtolookbroadlyformechanismsthatmay
generatepathdependencewhenanalyzingthedeterminantsofpathways(pastoranticipated)
(ShaliziandLecocq,2013).
Lockinisthemostextrememanifestationofpathdependence,whenitbecomesextremelycostlyor
impossibletoshiftawayfromthecurrentpathway.Lockinscanemergeinmanydomains,with
examplesrangingfromendusetechnologystandards(e.g.thecompetitionbetweentheAZERTYand
theQWERTYkeyboards,orbetweentheVHSandBETAMAXvideostandards),energysupply
networkstoexpansionpathwaysofregionsonceinitialchoicesaremade(Fujitaetal.,1999).Lock
insarenotgoodorbadperse(ShaliziandLecocq,2013),butidentifyingrisksofbadlockinsand
takingadvantageofpossiblegoodlockinsmattersforpolicymaking,sothatexantedecisionsare
notregrettedexpost(LiebowitzandMargolis(1995)).Theliterature,however,underlinesthatlock
insdonotstemonlyforlackofinformation.Therearealsomanycasesinwhichrationalagents
mightmakedecisionsbasedonlyonpartoftheinformationavailable,becauseof,interalia,
differencesbetweenlocalandglobaloptimum,timeandresourceconstraintsontheprocessor
informationsymmetry(Foray,1997);whichpointstotheprocessofdecisionmaking(See4.3.2on
GovernanceandPoliticalEconomy).

4.5.2.2 Examplesandlessonsfromthetechnologytransitionliterature
Partoftheliteratureoninnovation(reviewedinSections3.11and4.3.6;technologicalchangeis
reviewedinSection5.6)adoptsabroad,systemicperspectivetotrytoexplainhownew
technologiesemerge.Itthusprovidesexamplesof,andinsightsonhowtransitionbetween
pathwayscanoccur.Infact,changesintechnologies,theircauses,andtheirimplicationsfor
societieshavebeenactivelystudiedinsocialsciencessincethelate18thcenturybyhistorians,
economists,andsociologists.Acommonstartingpointistheobservationthattechnologicalchange
isnotahaphazardprocess,butproceedsincertaindirections(Kemp,1994).Forexample,
processorstendtobecomefaster,planestobecomelighter,etc.Tocharacterizetheseregularities,
scholarshavedevelopedtheconceptsoftechnologicalregime(NelsonandWinter,2002)and
technologicalparadigms(Dosi,1982;DosiandNelson,1994).Technologicalregimesrefertoshared
beliefsamongtechniciansaboutwhatisfeasible.Technologicalparadigmsrefertotheselectedset
ofobjectsengineersareworkingon,andtotheselectedsetofproblemstheychoosetoaddress.
Howtechnologicalregimesmaychange(suchaswiththedevelopmentofinformationtechnologies)
isasubjectofintenseresearch.Radicalinnovations(e.g.,thesteamengine)areseenasanecessary
condition.Butthedriversofradicalinnovationthemselvesarenotclearlyunderstood.Inaddition,
onceaninnovationispresent,theshiftintechnologicalregimeisnotastraightforwardprocess:the
forcesthatmaintaintechnologicalregimes(e.g.,increasingreturnstoscale,vestedinterests,
networkexternalities)arenoteasytoovercomeallthemoresothatnewtechnologiesareoften
lessefficient,inmanyrespects,thanexistingones,andcompetingtechnologiesmaycoexistfora
while.Historythussuggeststhatthediffusionofnewtechnologiesisaslowprocess(Kemp,1994;
Fouquet,2010).

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Morerecentresearchoverthepast20yearshasyieldedtwomajorperspectivesontechnology
transitions(TrufferandCoenen,2012):themultilevelperspectiveonsociotechnicalsystems(Geels,
2002)andtheconceptoftechnologicalinnovationssystems(Bergeketal.,2008).Themultilevel
perspectivedistinguishesthreelevelsofanalysis:nicheinnovations,sociotechnicalregimes,and
sociotechnicallandscape(Geels,2002).Atechnologicalnicheisthemicrolevelwhereradical
innovationsemerge.Sociotechnicalregimescorrespondtoanextendedversionofthetechnological
regimediscussedabove.Thesociotechnicallandscapecorrespondstotheregulatory,institutional,
physical,andbehaviouralenvironmentwithinwhichinnovationsemerge.Thereisconsiderable
inertiaatthisthirdlevel.Changesinsociotechnicalregimesemergefromtheinteractionsbetween
thesethreelevels.AccordingtoGeelsandSchotstypology(2007),changesinsociotechnical
regimescanfollowfourdifferentpaths.Transformationcorrespondstocasesinwhichmoderate
changesinthelandscapeoccuratatimewhennicheinnovationsarenotyetdeveloped,thus
resultinginarelativelysmallchangeofdirectionofthedevelopmentpathway.Anexampleof
transformationoccurredwhenmunicipalsewersystemswereimplementedinDutchcities(Geels,
2006).Dealignmentandrealignmentcorrespondtosuddenchangesinthelandscapethatcause
actorstolosefaithintheregime.Ifnoclearreplacementisreadyyet,alargerangeoftechnologies
maycompeteuntilonefinallydominatesandanewequilibriumisreached.Oneexampleisthe
transitionfromhorsepoweredvehiclestocars.Ifnewtechnologiesarealreadyavailable,onthe
otherhand,atransitionsubstitutionmightoccur,asinthecaseofthereplacementofsailingshipsby
steamshipsbetween1850and1920.Finally,areconfigurationoccurswheninnovationsinitially
adoptedaspartofthecurrentregimeprogressivelysubvertitintoanewone,anexampleofwhich
isthetransitionfromtraditionalfactoriestomassproductionintheUnitedStates.
Thetechnologicalinnovationsystemsapproach(Bergeketal.,2008)adoptsasystemicperspective
byconsideringallrelevantactors,theirinteractions,andtheinstitutionsrelevantforinnovation.
Earlyworkinthisapproacharguesthatbesidemarketfailures,systemfailuressuchas,interalia,
actordeficiencies,coordinationdeficitsorconflictswithexistinginstitutionalstructures(institutional
deficits)canexplainunsuccessfulinnovation(JacobssonandBergek,2011).Morerecentanalysis
focusesoncoreprocessescriticalforinnovation,suchaspresenceofentrepreneurialactivities,
learning,knowledgediffusionthroughnetworks,etc.Thetechnologicalinnovationsystemsconcept
wasdevelopedtoinformpublicpolicyonhowtobettersupporttechnologiesdeemedsustainable
withanincreasingfocusonsysteminnovationsasopposedtoinnovationinsingletechnologiesor
products(TrufferandCoenen,2012).

4.5.2.3 Economicmodellingoftransitionsbetweenpathways
Asnotedabove(4.5.1),economicmodellingisamajortoolforanalyzingfuturedevelopment
pathways.Modelsprovidedifferenttypesofinformationabouttransition,dependingontheir
featuresandonhowtheyareused.Thepresentsubsectionreviewsuseofmodelsforstudying
transitions.SeeSection6.2forareviewofmodellingtoolsforintegratedassessment.
Therearefourincreasinglycomplexwaysofusingeconomicmodelstoanalyzetransitionsbetween
developmentpathways.Thefirstoptionstaticmodellingconsistsofbuildingplausibleimagesof
thefutureatagivendateandcomparingthem(comparativestatics).Thefocusisontheinternal
consistencyofeachimage,andonthedistancebetweenthem.Modelswithoutexplicit
representationoftime(e.g.,inputoutput,partialequilibrium,orstaticgeneralequilibriummodels)
aresufficient.Staticmodelscanprovideinsightsonthesustainablecharacterofthelongterm
images,totheextentthatthemodelcapturescriticalvariablesforsustainabilitysuchasnatural
resourcesuseorimpactofeconomicactivityontheenvironment(e.g.,GHGemissions).However,
nationalaccountstypicallyaddupmultipleproductswithverydifferentmaterialcontent,very
differentenergycontents,andverydifferentprices.Thus,constructingrobustrelationshipsbetween
aggregatemonetaryindicatorsandphysicalflowsrequiresindepthanalysis.Similarly,staticmodels
canprovideinsightsonthesocialcomponentsofsustainabilitytotheextenttheyincludesomeform

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ofrepresentationofthedistributionofeconomicactivitywithinthesociety,notablyacrossincome
groups(seeSection4.4.1).Again,theassociateddatachallengeissignificant.Byconstruction,onthe
otherhand,staticmodelsdonotprovideinsightsonthepathwaysfromthepresentontoeach
possiblefuture,letaloneonthetransitionsbetweenpathways.
Dynamicmodelsareneededtodepictthepathwaytowardsdesirable(orundesirable)longterm
futures.Still,therelevanceofdynamicmodelsfordiscussingtransitionsdependsontheirstructure,
content,andwaytheyareused.Alargepartofthemodellingliteratureonclimatechangemitigation
reliesonneoclassicalgrowthmodelswithexogenous(Swan,1956;Solow,1956)orendogenous
(Koopmans,1965;Cass,1965)savingsrate.Inthosemodels,longtermgrowthisultimatelydriven
bythesumofpopulationgrowthandexogenoustotalfactorproductivitygrowth(exogenous
technicalchange).Inthesimplestversionoftheneoclassicalmodel,thereisthusonlyonepathway
tospeakof,asdeterminedbyhumanfertilityandhumaningenuity.Anydeparturefromthis
pathwayresorbsitselfendogenouslythroughadjustmentoftherelativeweightsofcapitaland
labourintheproductionfunction,andthroughadjustmentofthesavingsrate(whenendogenous).
Empirically,neoclassicalgrowthmodelshavelimitedabilitytoexplainobservedshorttermgrowth
patterns(e.g.,Easterly,(2002)).
Modellingofprocessesisneededtoenrichdiscussionsabouttransitionsbydifferentiatiatingshort
termeconomicprocessesfromlongtermprocesses.Thegeneralpointisthatthetechnical,
economic,andsocialprocessesoftenexhibitmorerigiditiesintheshortthaninthelongrun.As
Solow(2000)suggests,atshorttermscales,somethingsortofKeynesianisagoodapproximation,
andsurelybetterthananythingstraightneoclassical.Atverylongtimescales,theinteresting
questionsarebeststudiedinaneoclassicalframeworkandattentiontotheKeynesiansideofthings
wouldbeaminordistraction.Thereisalongtraditionofdebatesineconomicsonthedegreeto
whichproductiontechnologiesandwagesshouldbeconsideredflexibleorrigidintheshortand
mediumrun,withpotentiallyverydifferentresultsfortheassessmentofmitigationpolicies(Rezai
etal.,2013),(Guivarchetal.,2011).Otherimportantrigiditiesinclude,interalia,longlivedphysical
capital,theprematurereplacementofwhichistypicallyverycostly,andthedynamicsofwhichhave
importantimplicationsforthecosts,timing,anddirectionofclimatepolicies(e.g.Lecocqetal.,
1998;Wing,1999);rigiditiesassociatedwiththelocationofhouseholdsandfirms,changesofwhich
taketime;orrigiditiesassociatedwithpreferencesofindividualsandwithinstitutions.Presenceof
rigiditiesmayalsoleadtobifurcationstowardsdifferentlongtermoutcome(i.e.,equilibrium
dependenceandnotjustpathdependenceasinsection4.5.2)(Seee.g.Hallegatteetal.,2007).
Recognizinguncertaintyisafurtherkeyelementfortheenrichingtheanalysisoftransitions,
relaxingthefullinformationhypothesisunderwhichmanymodelsarerun.Ifinformationincreases
overtime,thereisarationaleforasequentialdecisionmakingframework(Arrowetal.,1996),in
whichchoicesmadeatonepointcanbereconsideredinlightofnewinformation.Thus,theissueis
nolongertoselectapathwayonceandforall,buttomakethebestfirststep(orshortterm)
decision,giventhestructureofuncertaintiesandthepotentialforincreasinginformationovertime
factorswhichareespeciallyrelevantinthecontextofclimatechange.Inertiaplaysanespecially
importantroleinthiscontext,asthemorechoicesmadeatonepointconstrainfutureopportunity
sets,themoredifficultitbecomestomakeadvantageofnewinformation(e.g.,HaDuongetal.,
1997).Anotherwaybywhichuncertaintycanbecapturedinmodelsistoabandontheintertemporal
optimizationobjectivealtogetherandusesimulationmodelsinstead,withdecisionsmadeatany
timebasedonimperfectexpectations(Scrieciuetal.,2013).Suchshifthasmajorimplicationsforthe
transitionpathway(Sassietal.,2010),butresultsstronglydependonhowexpectationsand
decisionsunderuncertaintyarerepresented.
Ideally,modelsthatproducedevelopmentpathwaysshouldthus(1)beframedinaconsistent
macroeconomicframework(sinceapathwayisholistic),(2)imposerelevanttechnicalconstraintsin
eachsector,suchasassumptionsabouttheprocessoftechnicalchange,(3)capturethekey

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relationshipsbetweeneconomicactivityandtheenvironment,e.g.,energyandnaturalresources
consumptionorgreenhousegasesemissions,(4)haveahorizonlongenoughtoassess
sustainabilityalongtermhorizonwhichalsoimplies,incidentally,thatthemodelmustbeableto
representstructuralandtechnicalchangeyet(5)recognizeshorttermeconomicprocessescritical
forassessingtransitionpathways,suchasmarketimbalanceandrigidities,allthiswhile(6)providing
anexplicitrepresentationofhoweconomicactivityisdistributedwithinthesociety,andhowthis
retrofitsintothegrowthpattern,and(7)representingkeyuncertainties.
Nomodeltodaymeetsallthesespecifications.Currentmodelscanbeclassifiedalongtwomajor
faultlines:bottomupvs.topdown,andlongtermvs.shortterm.Bydesign,computablegeneral
equilibrium(CGE)modelsprovideacomprehensivemacroeconomicframework,andtheycanbe
harnessedtoanalyzedistributionalissues,atleastamongstincomegroups,buttheytypicallyfailto
incorporatekeytechnicalconstraints.Conversely,bottomupengineeringmodelsprovideadetailed
accountoftechnicalpotentialsandlimitations,buttheirmacroengine,ifatall,ismostoften
rudimentary.Emerginghybridmodelsdevelopedinthecontextofclimatepolicyassessmentare
stepstowardsclosingthisgap(Hourcadeetal.,2006).Asimilarriftoccurswithregardtotime
horizon.GrowthmodelslikeSolowsaredesignedtocapturekeyfeaturesoflongtermdevelopment
pathways,buttheydonotincludeshortormediumtermeconomicprocessessuchasmarket
rigidities.Ontheotherhand,shorttermmodels(econometricorstructural)willmeetrequirement
butarenotdesignedtolookdeepinthefuture.Again,emergingmodelsincludeshort/medium
termprocessesintoanalysisofgrowthinthelongrun(seee.g.,(BarkerandSerbanScrieciu,2010),
butthisprettymuchremainsanopenresearchfield.

Box 4.4. Characterizing the sustainability of development pathways

Constructingandmodellingforwardlookingdevelopmentpathwaysisonething,evaluatinghow
theyfareintermsofsustainabilitywithinandbeyondthetimehorizonofthemodellingisanother.
Twoquestionscanactuallybedistinguished(Asheim,2007).Oneistopredictwhetherthecurrent
situation(welfare,environment)willbepreservedinthefuture:areweonasustaineddevelopment
pathway,i.e.,apathwaywithoutdownturninwelfareorenvironmentalobjectives?Thisquestionis
answeredbylookingattheevolutionofthetargetvariableswithinthetimehorizonofthescenario,
andwhathappensbeyondthehorizonremainsundetermined.Anotherquestionistodetermine
whetherthecurrentgenerationsdecisionsleaveitpossibleforfuturegenerationstoachievea
sustainedpathway:isasustaineddevelopmentpathwaypossiblegivenwhatthecurrentgeneration
does?Unliketheformerquestion,thelatterdoesnotrequirepredictingthefuturegenerations
decisions,onlytheirfutureconstraintsandopportunities.Showingtheexistenceofasustained
pathwayisthenanargumentinfavourofthecompatibilityofcurrentdecisionswithfuture
sustainability.Someindicatorsofsustainabilitysuchasgenuinesavings(seeBox4.2)aremeantto
provideananswerbasedonthecurrentevolutionof(economic,social,environmental)capital
stocksandcanalsobeusedfortheevaluationofscenariosthatdepictthesestocks.Inpractice,
sustainabilityanalysis(ofeithertype)isnotfrequentinthescenariobuildingcommunity,though
multicriteriaanalysisofscenarioshasbeengaininggroundinrecentyears(Seee.g.,GEA,2012).

4.6 Mitigativecapacityandmitigation,andlinkstoadaptivecapacityand
adaptation
4.6.1 Mitigationandadaptationmeasures,capacities,anddevelopmentpathways
Eventhoughadaptationandmitigationaregenerallyapproachedasdistinctdomainsofscientific
researchandpractice(Biesbroeketal.,2009)(asreflected,forexample,intheIPCCseparate
WorkingGroupsIIandIII),arecognitionofthedeeplinkagesbetweenmitigationandadaptationhas
graduallyemerged.Initially,mitigationandadaptationwereanalyzedprimarilyintermsoftechno

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economicconsiderations.Butgrowingattentionhasbeendirectedattheunderlyingcapacities,first
withrespecttoadaptation,andlaterandlessfullywithrespecttomitigation,(Grothmannand
Patt,2005;BurchandRobinson,2007;Winkleretal.,2007;Goklany,2007;Pelling,2010).
Thisattentionhasnecessitatedabroadeningofthescopeofanalysiswellbeyondnarrowtechno
economicconsiderations,tothesocial,political,economic,andculturaldomains,asultimately,this
iswheretheunderlyingdeterminantsofmitigativeandadaptivecapacitylie.Followingtheliterature
enumeratedabove,anonexhaustivelistoftheseunderlyingdeterminantsinclude:theleveland
distributionofwealth,robustnessandlegitimacyofinstitutions,availabilityofcredibleinformation,
existenceandreliabilityofinfrastructure,accesstoandadequacyoftechnologiesandsystemsof
innovation,effectivegovernance,socialcohesionandsecurity,distributionofdecisionmakingpower
amongactors,conditionsofequityandempowermentamongcitizens,andtheopportunitycostsof
action,aswellasindividualcognitivefactors,includingrelevantskills,knowledgeandcultural
framings.Thefactthatmitigativeandadaptivecapacitiesshareandaresimilarlyaffectedbythese
underlyingdeterminantshighlightstheirsimilarity,blurringthedistinctionbetweenthemand
leadingsomescholarstoarguethatthereissimplyresponsecapacity(TompkinsandAdger,2005;
Wilbanks,2005;BurchandRobinson,2007).Becauseresponsecapacityisdirectlyshapedbythese
underlyingtechnological,economic,institutional,sociocultural,andpoliticaldeterminants,itisin
otherwordsdirectlyshapedbytheoveralldevelopmentpathway,whichisthecombinedproductof
thosesameinterrelateddeterminants.Thisdependenceofresponsecapacityondevelopment
pathwayisunderscoredbythestrongparallelbetweenitsdeterminants(outlinedabove)andthe
definingdimensionsofadevelopmentpathway(discussedinSections4.3and4.5).Indeed,response
capacityisdeterminedmuchmorebytheoveralldevelopmentpathwaythanbytargetedclimate
specificpolicies.TheacademicconsensusonthispointhasbeenclearlyreflectedintheIPCCAR4
(2007),inWGIChapter12inthecaseofmitigativecapacity,andWGIIChapter18inthecaseof
adaptivecapacity.Ofcourse,morenuancedandsitespecificassessmentsofthedeterminantsof
suchcapacitycanprovidefurtherusefulinsight;seee.g.,Keskitaloetal.,2011).
Moreover,thereisconsensusthataneffectivetransitiontowardaSDpathwayinparticularcan
moreeffectivelyfosterresponsecapacity(IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange,2007;
MatthewandHammill,2009;Parry,2009;Halsnaesetal.,2011;HarryandMorad,2013).Thereare
variouselementsoffosteringatransitiontowardSDthatnaturallyaccordwiththecreationof
mitigativeandadaptivecapacity,including,forexample,theestablishmentofinnovationsystems
thataresupportiveofenvironmentalandsocialpriorities,thesupportforadaptiveecosystem
managementandconservation,thestrengtheningofinstitutionsandassetstosupportfoodand
watersecurityandpublichealth,andthesupportforprocedurallyequitablesystemsofgovernance
(Banuri,2009;Barbier,2011;Bowenetal.,2011;BowenandFriel,2012).Mitigationandadaptation
outcomescanofcoursestillbeexpectedtodependontheextenttowhichexpliciteffortsaretaken
toimplementandmainstreamclimatechangepoliciesandmeasures,aswellasonthemannerin
whichaparticularSDapproachmayevolvewithmoreorlessemphasisoneconomic,social,or
environmentalobjectives(Giddingsetal.,2002;Begetal.,2002;Grist,2008;Halsnsetal.,2008).
ThecentralityofmitigativeandadaptivecapacitytoSDishighlightedbythegrowingattentiontothe
ideathattheEarthsystemhasmovedfromtheHoloceneintotheAnthropocene(Steffenetal.,
2011),wheresocietiesarethemostimportantdriversoftheEarthsdynamics.Mitigativeand
adaptivecapacitycanbeseeningeneralterms,i.e.,notjustwithrespecttoGHGemissionsand
climateimpacts,butallanthropogenicenvironmentalpressuresandimpactsfromecosystem
degradation.Inthisview,mitigativeandadaptivecapacityarecentraltosustainableecosystem
management(Holling,1978;WaltersandHolling,1990;McFaddenetal.,2011;Williams,2011),and
thusfundamentaltoSD(Chapinetal.,2010;Folkeetal.,2011b;Polaskyetal.,2011;Biermannetal.,
2012).Somescholarsinterpretthisasafundamentalredefinitionofdevelopmentcallingfor
transformationalshiftsbasedonreimaginingpossibilitiesforfuturedevelopmentpathways(Pelling,
2010;Jackson,2011a;Ehrlichetal.,2012;Katesetal.,2012).

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Scholarshipexploringthelinksbetweenmitigation,adaptation,socioecologicalresilienceandSD
moregenerally,hasgenerallypointedtowardtheexistenceof(potential)synergiesandtradeoffs
withinandacrosspolicysectorsandacrossimplementationmeasures(Gallopn,2006;Rosenzweig
andTubiello,2007;Vogeletal.,2007;Boydetal.,2009;ThorntonandGerber,2010;Adgeretal.,
2011;Warren,2011;Laletal.,2011;Vermeulenetal.,2012;DentonandWilbanks,2012;Hill,2013).
Thesestudiesshowthat,inspiteofmitigativeandadaptivecapacitiesbeingsocloselyintertwined
witheachotherandwithSD,therelationshipbetweenmitigationandadaptationmeasuresismore
ambiguousand,inlinewiththeIPCCAR4,suggestthatoutcomesarehighlydependentonthe
measuresandthecontextinwhichtheyareundertaken,withsomepolicysectorsbeingmore
conducivetosynergiesthanothers.
Intheagriculturalsector,forexample,scholarshaveformanyyearshighlightedthepotentialof
fosteringbothmitigationandadaptationbysupportingtraditionalandbiodiverseagroecological
systemsaroundtheworld(Campbell,2011;AltieriandNicholls,2013,andseeSection11.5).A
recentmodellingexercisesuggeststhatinvestingsubstantiallyinadaptingagriculturetoclimate
changeinsomeregionsAsiaandNorthAmericacanresultinsubstantialmitigationcobenefits,
whilethelattermaybeinsignificantinAfrica(Lobelletal.,2013).Thereareempiricalstudieswhere
interventionsinagriculturalsystemshaveledtopositivemitigationandadaptationoutcomesor
viceversa(Kenny,2011;Wollenberg,2012;Bryanetal.,2012),orwheresynergiesbetween
adaptationandmitigationhavenotmaterializeddueto,forexample,limitedscientificandpolicy
knowledge,aswellasinstitutionalandfarmers'ownfinancialandcognitiveconstraints(Hadenetal.,
2012;ArbuckleJr.etal.,2013;Bryanetal.,2013).Inforestry,thelinksbetweenfosteringmitigation
strategies,e.g.,throughplantingtrees,developingagroforestrysystemsorconservingdiverse
ecosystems,andtheadaptationofbothforestsandpeopletoclimatechangehavebeenwidely
acknowledgedandthepossibilityofeffectivelinkagesinpolicyandactionhavealsobeenidentified
(Locatellietal.,2011;Schoenebergeretal.,2012;Morietal.,2013).Methodsforidentifying
tradeoffsbetweenmitigationandadaptationatpolicyandimplementationlevelsandtofoster
legitimatedecisionmakinghavealsobeenrecentlydeveloped(Laukkonenetal.,2009;Janetosetal.,
2012).
ThisevolvingliteraturehighlightstheneedtoexamineadaptationandmitigationfortheirSD
implications,andultimatelytomainstreamtheminbroaderdevelopmentpolicy.Italsoexplainsthe
parallelemergenceofenvironmentalgovernanceresearchaboutreformingexistingordeveloping
institutionsindifferentpolicydomainstomeetthisneed(Folkeetal.,2005;Folke,2007;Brunner
andLynch,2010).Recentstudieshighlighttheorganizational,institutional,financial,andknowledge
barrierstothedevelopmentofeffectivegovernanceformitigationandadaptationingeneral
governmentpolicy(Pickettsetal.,2012),aswellasinparticularpolicysectors,e.g.,inforestry
(JohnstonandHesseln,2012);inhealth(Bowenetal.,2013);orinurbanplanning(Barton,2013).
Othersidentifythemultiscale,interconnected,anddynamicnatureofmanyclimateissuesand
theirassociatedresponsesasakeybarriertoaction,particularlyatlocallevel(RomeroLankao,
2012).Analysesoftheeffectivenessofpublicprivatepartnershipsandotherformsofmultiactor
cooperationtomainstreambothmitigationandadaptationmeasuresinagivensectorandcontext
alsorevealthechallengingnatureofsuchendeavour(Pattberg,2010;PinkseandKolk,2012).
ThereisamplescopetoimproveresponsecapacityinnationsandcommunitiesbyputtingSDatthe
coreofdevelopmentpriorities,despitetheconsiderablegovernancechallengestomainstreaming
mitigationandadaptationmeasuresacrosspolicysectors,collectiveandindividualbehaviour,andto
exploitpossiblesynergiesandconfronttradeoffs.Nonetheless,itremainsthecasethatthevariation
ofmitigativeandadaptivecapacitybetweendifferentnationsandcommunitieswithinthemisa
functionofthevastdisparitiesinthedeterminantsofsuchcapacity.Thesedifferencesincapacity
areinturndriventoasignificantdegreebydifferencesindevelopmentpathwaysand,specifically,
levelofdevelopment.Thisisaprimaryreasonwhytheissueofburdensharingamongnations

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featuressoprominentlyinconsiderationofinternationalcooperationonclimatechangegenerally,
andtheUNFCCCinparticular,asdiscussedfurtherinthefollowingsection.

4.6.2 Equityandburdensharinginthecontextofinternationalcooperationonclimate
Chapter3(Sections3.2to3.5)introducedthegeneralequityprinciplesinthephilosophicalliterature
andtheirrelevancetoclimatechangeincludingburdensharing.Thissectionbrieflyreviewsthe
extensiveliteratureregardingburdensharinginaglobalclimateregime.Iffocusesfirstontheequity
principlesastheyareinvokedintheliterature,whichemphasisesthoselaidoutintheUNFCCC.It
thenreviewsseveralcategoriesofburdensharingframeworks.Whiletheacademicliteratureuses
thetermburdensharing,itisunderstoodthatmitigationactionentailsnotonlyburdensbutalso
benefits.

4.6.2.1 Equityprinciplespertinenttoburdensharinginaninternationalclimateregime
TheUNFCCCclearlyinvokesthevisionofequitableburdensharingamongPartiestowardachieving
theConventionsobjective.WhilePartieshadnotarticulatedaspecificburdensharingarrangement
inquantifieddetail,theyhadestablishedaninitialallocationofobligationsamongcountrieswith
explicitreferencestotheneedforequitablecontributions.AllPartiesadoptedgeneralcommitments
tomitigate,adapt,andundertakeotherclimaterelatedactions,butdistinctcategoriesofcountries
reflectinglevelofdevelopmentwereidentifiedandassignedspecificobligations.Developed
countries(listedinAnnexI)weredistinguishedfromdevelopingcountriesandobligedtotakethe
leadoncombatingclimatechangeandtheadverseeffectsthereof(Article3.1),notingtheneed
forequitableandappropriatecontributionsbyeachofthesePartiestotheglobaleffortregarding
[theUNFCCC]objective(Article4.2(a)).AsubsetofAnnexIcountriesconsistingofthewealthier
developedcountries(listedinAnnexII)werefurtherobligedtoprovidefinancialandtechnological
supporttodevelopingcountriestoenablethemtoeffectivelyimplementtheirUNFCCC
commitments(Article4.7),notingthattheyshalltakeintoaccounttheimportanceof
appropriateburdensharingamongthedevelopedcountryParties.
WhilePartiesequitablecontributionsareelaboratedfurtherinsubsequentUNFCCCdecisionsand
undertheDurbanPlatformforEnhancedAction,anexplicitarrangementforequitableburden
sharingremainsunspecified.Becausethereisnoabsolutestandardofequity,countries(likepeople)
willtendtoadvocateinterpretationswhichtendtofavourtheir(oftenshortterm)interests
(Heyward,2007;Langeetal.,2010;KalsandMaes,2011).Itisthustemptingtosaythatnoreasoned
resolutionispossibleandtoadvocateapurelyproceduralresolution(Mller,1999).However,there
isabasicsetofsharedethicalpremisesandprecedentsthatapplytotheclimateproblem,and
impartialreasoning(asbehindaRawlsian(Rawls,2000)veilofignorance)canhelpputboundson
theplausibleinterpretationsofequityintheburdensharingcontext.Evenintheabsenceofa
formal,globallyagreedburdensharingframework,suchprinciplesareimportantinestablishing
expectationsofwhatmaybereasonablyrequiredofdifferentactors.Theyinfluencethenatureof
thepublicdiscourse,theconcessionsindividualsarewillingtogrant,thedemandscitizensare
inclinedtoimposeontheirowngovernments,andthetermsinwhichgovernmentsrepresenttheir
negotiatingpositionsbothtoothercountriesandtotheirowncitizens.Fromtheperspectiveofan
internationalclimateregime,manyanalystshaveconsideredprinciplesforequitableburdensharing,
(Rose1990;HayesandSmith1993;Baeretal.2000;B.Metzetal.2002;Ringius,Torvanger,and
Underdal2002;Aldy,Barrett,andStavins2003;Ghersi,Hourcade,andCriqui2003;Gardiner2004;
Caney2005;Caney2009;Caney2010;Heyward2007;E.A.Page2008;Vanderheiden2008;Klinsky
andDowlatabadi2009;Winkleretal.2011).Equitableburdensharinghasbeenmostfrequently
appliedtocostsofmitigation,thoughsimilarissuesarisewithregardtoadaptation(Baer,2006;
PaavolaandAdger,2006;Adger,2006;JagersandDuusOtterstrom,2008;Dellinketal.,2009;
Grasso,2010;HartzellNichols,2011).Heretheseequityprinciplesaregivenalongfourkey
dimensionsresponsibility,capacity,equality,andtherighttosustainabledevelopment,expanding
onthephilosophicalargumentsinSections3.23.4.

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Responsibility
Intheclimatecontext,responsibilityiswidelytakenasafundamentalprinciplerelating
responsibilityforcontributingtoclimatechange(viaemissionsofGHGs)totheresponsibilityfor
solvingtheproblem.Theliteratureextensivelydiscussesit,distinguishingmoralresponsibilityfrom
causalresponsibility,andconsideringthemoralsignificanceofknowledgeofharmfuleffects
(Neumayer,2000;Caney,2005;Mlleretal.,2009).Commonsenseethics(andlegalpractice)hold
personsresponsibleforharmsorriskstheyknowinglyimposeorcouldhavereasonablyforeseen,
and,incertaincases,regardlessofwhethertheycouldhavebeenforeseen.Thenotionof
responsibilityisthuscloselyconnectedtothePolluterPaysPrinciple(PPP),andburdensharing
principlesthatderivefromitholdthatcountriesshouldbeaccountablefortheirgreenhousegas
emissions.ThisisacommoninterpretationoftheUNFCCCphrasecommonbutdifferentiated
responsibilities(Harris,1999;Rajamani,2000),givenitssimilaritytothemoreexplicitRio
Declaration(seeSection4.1).
Responsibilityistakenbysometoincludepresentandpastemissions(GrblerandFujii,1991;
Smith,1991;Neumayer,2000;Riveetal.,2006;Weietal.,2012).Thishasbeenjustifiedonthree
maingrounds.First,climatechangeresultsfromthestockofaccumulatedhistoricemissions.
Second,thetotalamountofgreenhousegasesthatcanbeemittedtotheatmospheremustbe
constrained(toaleveldeterminedbysocietyschoiceofglobalclimatestabilizationgoal(seeIPCC
AR5WGI),andthusconstitutesafinitecommonresource(oftenlooselyreferredtoasthe
atmosphericspaceorthecarbonbudget).Usersofthisresourcewhethercurrentorhistorical
shouldbeaccountablefordepletingtheresourceandprecludingtheaccessofothers.Third,
historicalemissionsreflecttheuseofaresourcefromwhichbenefitshavebeenderived,i.e.,wealth,
fixedcapital,infrastructure,andotherassets.Thesebenefitsconstitutealegacybasedinparton
consumingacommonresourcethat(1)shouldbepaidfor,and(2)providesabasisformitigative
capacity(Shue,1999;Caney,2006,2010).Thelatterargumentcarriesthenotionofresponsibility
furtherbackintime,assigningresponsibilityfortheemissionsofpreviousgenerations,totheextent
thatpresentgenerationshaveinheritedbenefits.Thisargumentlinksresponsibilitywiththecapacity
principlediscussedbelow(MeyerandRoser,2010;Gardiner,2011a;Meyer,2012).Ifconventional
developmentcontinues,therelativeresponsibilityofsomenationsthatcurrentlyhaverelativelylow
cumulativeemissionswouldmatchandexceedbymidcenturytherelativeresponsibilityofsome
nationswhocurrentlyhavehighresponsibility(HhneandBlok,2005;Botzenetal.,2008),onan
aggregateifnotpercapitabasis.Suchprojectionsillustratethattherelativedistributionof
responsibilityamongcountriescanvarysubstantiallyovertime,andthataburdensharing
frameworkmustdynamicallyreflectevolvingrealitiesiftheyaretofaithfullyreflectethical
principles.Theyalsomayprovideabasisforunderstandingwheremitigationmightproductivelybe
undertaken,thoughnotnecessarilywhoshouldbeobligedtobearthecosts.
Eachnationsresponsibilityforemissionsistypicallydefined(asinIPCCinventorymethodologies)in
termsofemissionswithinthenationsterritorialboundary.Analternativeinterpretation(Fermann,
1994),whichhasbecomemoresalientasinternationaltradehasgrownmoreimportant,isto
includeemissionsembodiedininternationallytradedgoodsconsumedbyagivennation.Recent
studies(Lenzenetal.,2007;Panetal.,2008;Petersetal.,2011)haveprovidedaquantitativebasis
forbetterunderstandingtheimplicationsofaconsumptionbasedapproachtoassessing
responsibility.Ingeneral,attheaggregatelevel,developedcountriesarenetimportersofemissions,
anddevelopingcountriesarenetexporters(seeSections5.3.3.2and14.3.4).Therelevanceofthisto
burdensharingmaydependonfurtherfactors,suchasthedistributionbetweentheexportingand
importingcountriesofthebenefitsofcarbonintensiveproduction,andthepresenceofother
climatepoliciessuchasbordercarbontariffs(seeSection13.8.1and14.4.1),aswellasthe
developmentoftherelevantdatasources(seealsoSections3.9and4.4).Manyanalystshave
suggestedthatallemissionsarenotequivalentinhowtheytranslatetoresponsibility,distinguishing

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thecategoriesofsurvivalemissions,developmentemissions,andluxuryemissions(Agarwaland
Narain,1991;Shue,1993;Baeretal.,2009;RaoandBaer,2012).
Determiningresponsibilityforemissionsinordertoallocateresponsibilityraisesmethodological
questions.Inadditiontothestandardquestionsaboutdataavailabilityandreliability,therearealso
equityrelatedquestions.Forinstance,therearevariousrationalesfordetermininghowfarinthe
pasttoincludehistoricalemissions.Onerationaleisthatthe1990sshouldbetheearliestdate,
reflectingthetimingoftheFirstIPCCAssessmentReportandthecreationofaglobalregimethat
imposedobligationstocurbemissions(PosnerandSunstein,2007).Somearguethatthedateshould
beearlier,correspondingtothetimethatclimatechangebecamereasonablysuspectedofbeinga
problem,andgreenhousegasemissionsthusidentifiableasapollutantworthyofpolicyaction.For
example,onemightargueforthe1970sor1960s,basedonthepublishedwarningsissuedby
scientificadvisorypanelstotheUnitedStatespresidentsJohnson(U.S.NationalResearchCouncil
CommitteeonAtmosphericSciences,1966;MacDonaldetal.,1979)andCarter(MacDonaldetal.,
1979),andthefirstG7SummitDeclarationhighlightingclimatechangeasaproblemandseekingto
preventfurtherincreasesofcarbondioxideintheatmosphere(Groupof7HeadsofState,1979).
Othersarguethatastillearlierdateisappropriatebecausethedamageisstillcaused,thestock
depleted,andthebenefitsderived,regardlessofwhetherthereisalegalrequirementorknowledge.
Anotherissueisthequestionofaccountingfortheresidencetimeofemissionsintotheatmosphere,
asanalternativetosimplyconsideringcumulativeemissionsovertime.Inthecaseofcarbon
dioxide,responsibilitycouldincludepastemissionsevenwhentheyarenolongerresidentinthe
atmosphere,onthegroundsthatthoseemissions(1)havecontributedtothewarmingandclimate
damagesexperiencedsofar,anduponwhichfurtherwarminganddamageswillbeadditive,and(2)
havebeenremovedfromtheatmospherepredominantlytotheoceans,wheretheyarenowcausing
oceanacidification,whichisitselfanenvironmentalproblem(SeeAR5WGI,Chapters3and6).

Capacity(or,AbilitytoPay)
Asecondprincipleforallocatingeffortarisesfromthecapacitytocontributetosolvingtheclimate
problem(Shue,1999;Caney,2010).Generally,capacityisinterpretedtomeanthatthemoreone
canaffordtocontribute,themoreoneshould,justassocietiestendtodistributethecostsof
preservingorgeneratingsocietalpublicgoods;i.e.,mostsocietieshaveprogressiveincometaxation.
Thisviewcanbeappliedatthelevelofcountries,oratalowerlevel,recognizinginequalities
betweenindividuals.Smithetal.(1993)suggestedGDPasanincomebasedmeasureofabilityto
pay,subjecttoathresholdvalue,determinedbyanindicatorofqualityoflife.Thiswasdevelopedin
Karthaetal.(2009)andBaeretal.(2010),takingintoaccountintranationaldisparities.
AsdiscussedinSection4.6.1,responsecapacityreferstomorethanjustfinancialwherewithal,
encompassingalsoothercharacteristicsthataffectanationsabilitytocontributetosolvingthe
climateproblem.Itrecognizesthateffectiveresponsesrequirenotonlyfinancialresources,butalso
technological,institutional,andhumancapacity.ThisissuehasbeentreatedbyWinkler,Letete,and
Marquard(2011)byconsideringtheHumanDevelopmentIndexasacomplementtoincomein
consideringcapacity.Capacity,eveninthisbroadersense,canbedistinguishedfrommitigation
potential,whichreferstothepresenceoftechnoeconomicopportunitiesforreducingemissions
dueto,forexample,havingrenewableenergyresourcesthatcanbeexploited,alegacyofhigh
carboninfrastructurethatcanbereplaced,orarapidlygrowingcapitalstockthatcanbebuiltbased
onlowcarboninvestments.Mitigationpotentialisausefulcharacteristicfordeterminingwhere
emissionsreductionscanbelocatedgeographicallyforreasonsofcosteffectiveness,butthiscanbe
distinguishedfromburdensharingperse,inthesenseofdeterminingonnormativegroundswhich
countryshouldpayforthosereductions.Thisdistinctionisreflectedintheeconomistsnotionthat
economicefficiencycanbedecoupledfromequity(Coase,1960;ManneandStephan,2005).

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Equality
Equalitymeansmanythings,butacommonunderstandingininternationallawisthateachhuman
beinghasequalmoralworthandthusshouldhaveequalrights.Somearguethisappliestoaccessto
commonglobalresources,expressedintheperspectivethateachpersonshouldhaveanequalright
toemit(Grubb,1989;AgarwalandNarain,1991).Thisequalrightisappliedbysomeanalyststo
currentandfutureflows,andbysometothecumulativestockaswell.(Seefurtherbelow.)
Someanalysts(Caney,2009)havenoted,however,thatacommitmenttoequalitydoesnot
necessarilytranslateintoanequalrighttoemit.Egalitariansgenerallycallforequalityofatotal
packageofresources(orcapabilitiesoropportunitiesforwelfare)andthusmaysupport
inequalitiesinonegoodtocompensateforinequalitiesinothergoods(Starkey,2011).Forexample,
onemightarguethatpoorpeoplewhoaredisadvantagedwithrespecttoaccesstoresourcessuch
asfoodordrinkingwatermaybeentitledtoagreaterthanpercapitashareofemissionsrights.
Second,someindividualsmayhavegreaterneedsthanothers.Forexample,poorerpeoplemay
havelessaccesstoalternativestofossilfuels(orunsustainablyharvestedwoodfuel)becauseof
highercostorlessavailabletechnologies,andthusbeentitledtoalargershareofemissionrights.
Othershavesuggestedthatequalitycanbeinterpretedasrequiringequalsacrifices,eitherbyall
parties,orbypartieswhoareequalalongsomerelevantdimension.Then,totheextentthatparties
arenotequal,moreresponsibility(GonzalezMiguezandSanthiagodeOliveira,2011)orcapacity
(Jacobyetal.,2009)wouldimplymoreobligation,allelsebeingequal.

Righttodevelopment
TherighttodevelopmentappearsininternationallawintheUNDeclarationontheRightto
Development,theRioDeclaration,andtheViennaDeclaration,andiscloselyrelatedtothenotionof
needasanequityprinciple,inthatitpositsthattheinterestsofpoorpeopleandpoorcountriesin
meetingbasicneedsareaglobalpriority(AndreassenandMarks,2007).TheUNFCCCacknowledges
arighttopromotesustainabledevelopment,andthelegitimatepriorityneedsofdeveloping
countriesfortheachievementofsustainedeconomicgrowthandtheeradicationofpoverty
(UNFCCC,2002)andrecognizesthateconomicandsocialdevelopmentandpovertyeradicationare
thefirstandoverridingprioritiesofthedevelopingcountryParties(p.3).
Inthecontextofequitableburdensharing,aminimalistinterpretationofarighttodevelopmentisa
righttoanexemptionfromobligationsforpoorParties(Ringiusetal.,2002)onthebasisthat
meetingbasicneedshasclearmoralprecedenceovertheneedtosolvetheclimateproblem,or,at
theveryleast,itshouldnotbehinderedbymeasurestakentoaddressclimatechange.

4.6.2.2 Frameworksforequitableburdensharing
Therearevariouswaysofinterpretingtheaboveequityprinciplesandapplyingthemtothedesign
ofburdensharingframeworks.Itishelpfultocategorizethemintotwobroadclasses.Resource
sharingframeworksareaimedatapplyingethicalprinciplestoestablishabasisforsharingthe
agreedglobalcarbonbudget.Effortsharingframeworksareaimedatsharingthecostsofthe
globalclimateresponse.Theresourcesharingframeisthenaturalpointofdepartureifclimate
changeisposedasatragedyofthecommonstypeofcollectiveactionproblem;ifitisposedasa
freeridertypeofcollectiveactionproblem,theeffortsharingperspectiveismorenatural.Neither
oftheseframingsisobjectivelythecorrectone,justasneithercollectiveactionframingofthe
climatechangeproblemiscorrect.Bothcaninformpolicymakersjudgmentsindifferentways.
Indeed,thetwoapproachesarecomplementary:anygivenresourcesharingframeworkimpliesa
particulardistributionoftheeffort,andconverselytheoppositeistrue.Ineithercase,burden
sharingframeworksaretypicallyformulatedasemissionentitlementstobeusedintradingsystem
orglobalclimatefund,whichenablesacosteffectivedistributionoftheactualmitigationefforts.
Throughsuchmechanisms,countrieswithobligationsgreaterthantheirdomesticmitigation

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potentialcanfundreductionsincountrieswithobligationsthatarelessthantheirdomestic
mitigationpotential(seeSections6.3.6and13.4.3).
Oneimportantdimensionalongwhichbothresourcesharingandeffortsharingproposalscanbe
comparedisthenumberofcategoriesintowhichcountriesaregrouped.TheUNFCCCinfacthad
threecategoriesAnnexI,AnnexII(theOECDcountrieswithinAnnexI),andnonAnnexI.Manyof
theproposalsdiscussedbelowreproducethesedistinctions.Othersincreasethenumberofbins,to
asmanyassix(Winkleretal.,2006).Finally,manyotherseliminateanyqualitativecategories,
insteadallocatingemissionsrightsorobligationsonthebasisofacontinuousindex.

Resourcesharingapproaches
Theresourcesharingapproachstartsbyacknowledgingthattheglobalcarbonbudgetisbounded,
withitssizedefinedbytheagreedclimatestabilizationtarget.Themoststraightforwardresource
sharingapproachisanequalpercapitaapproach(Grubb,1990;AgarwalandNarain,1991;Jamieson,
2001),whichispremisedontheequalrightstotheatmosphericcommonstoallindividuals,and
allocatesemissionallowancestoeachcountryinproportiontoitspopulation.Inresponsetothe
concernthatanequalpercapitaallocationwouldprovideanincentiveformorerapidpopulation
growth,someanalystshavearguedthattheeffectwouldbenegligibleincomparisontoother
factorsaffectingpopulation,andothershaveproposedsolutionssuchasholdingpopulation
constantasofsomeagreeddate(Jamieson,2001),establishingstandardizedgrowthexpectations
(Cline,1992),orallocatingemissioninproportiononlytoadultpopulation(Grubb,1990).
Inresponsetotheconcernthatunrealisticallyrapidreductionswouldberequiredinthosecountries
whosecurrentemissionsarefarabovetheglobalaverage,somehaveproposedaperiodof
transitionfromgrandfatheredemissionrights(i.e.,allocatedinproportiontocurrentemissions)to
equalpercapitaemissionrights(GrubbandSebenius,1992;Welsch,1993;Meyer,2004).This
rationaleappliesspecificallytoaframeworkintendedtodetermineactualemissionpathways,in
whichcaseanimmediatepercapitadistributionwouldimposeunrealisticallyabruptchangesfrom
presentemissionlevels.Foraframeworkintendedtoassigntransferablerightstoemit,ratherthan
actualemissions,therationaleisquestionable:theopportunitytoacquireadditionalallocations
throughemissionstradingorsomeothertransfersystemwouldallowacosteffectivetransitionand
lessen,thoughnoteliminate,thepoliticalchallengesofanimmediateequalpercapitaallocation.
Avariantontheabovethataimstoaddresstheconcernthatmanydevelopingcountrieswouldhave
toreducetheiremissionsfromalreadyverylowlevelsisCommonbutDifferentiatedConvergence
(Hhneetal.,2006),underwhichadevelopingcountryisrequiredtobeginconvergingonlyonceits
percapitaemissionsexceedaspecified(andprogressivelydeclining)threshold.Chakravartyetal.
(2009)putforwardavariantthatlookedbeyondaveragenationalindicatorsofemissionsby
examiningthedistributionofemissionsacrossindividualsatdifferentincomelevelswithincountries.
Extendingtheconceptofequalpercapitarightstoincludeboththehistoricalandfuturecarbon
budgetgivestheequalcumulativepercapitaemissionrightsfamilyofframeworks(Bode,2004;
denElzenetal.,2005;GermanAdvisoryCouncilonGlobalChange,2009;Oberheitmann,2010;
Hhneetal.,2011;CASS/DRCJointProjectTeam,2011;Jayaramanetal.,2011;Panetal.,2013).
Theseframeworksvary,forexample,intheirchoiceoftheinitialdateforhistoricalemissions,the
waytheydealwithgrowingpopulations,theirtreatmentofluxuryversussurvivalemissions,and
theirwayofdistributingabudgetovertime.Assomecountries(whichtendtobehigherincome
countriesthatindustrializedearlier)haveconsumedmorethantheirequalpercapitashareofthe
historicalglobalbudget,thisexcessuseisofferedasanargumentforobligingthemtoprovide
financialandtechnologicalresourcestoothercountriesthathaveusedlessthantheirhistorical
share.Thisobligationhasbeenlinkedtothenotionofacarbondebtorclimatedebt(Pickering
andBarry,2012),andframedasasubsetofalargerecologicaldebt(RobertsandParks,2009;

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GoeminneandParedis,2010),whichsomeanalyseshaveattemptedtoquantify(Smith,1991;
Srinivasanetal.,2008;Cranstonetal.,2010).

Effortsharingapproaches
Effortsharingframeworksseektofairlydividethecostsofreducingemissionstoanagreedlevel.
(Effortsharingapproachescanalsobeappliedtoadaptationcostswhereasresourcesharing
approachescannot.)Manyofthephilosophersengagedwiththequestionofburdensharinginthe
climateregimehavearguedthatobligationsshouldbeproportionalinsomefashiontoresponsibility
andcapacity(see,forexampletheanalysesofShue(1993);orCaney(2005)).
AnearlyeffortsharingapproachwastheBrazilianproposalusinghistoricresponsibilityforemissions
andthusglobaltemperatureriseasabasisforsettingKyototargets.Thisapproachhasbeen
quantitativelyanalyzed(HhneandBlok,2005)andrecentlydiscussedintheglobalpoliticalcontext
(GonzalezMiguezandSanthiagodeOliveira,2011).Otherapproacheshaveusedcapacitybasedon
indicatorssuchasGDPpercapita(Wadaetal.,2012)asabasisforeffortsharing,orhavecombined
capacityandresponsibility(Winkleretal.,2006).Somehaveincludedminimalformofarightto
developmentbyidentifyingathresholdofdevelopmentbelowwhichincomeandemissionsarenot
includedinanationscapacityorresponsibility(Cao,2008;Karthaetal.,2009;YueandWang,2012).
Thequantitativeimplicationsofanumberofburdensharingframeworksarepresentedforseveral
regionsinSection6.3.6.6.Theframeworksaregroupedintosixcategories,correspondingeitherto
oneoftheunderlyingburdensharingprinciples(responsibility,capability,equality,rightto
development),oracombinationofthem.Itisimportanttonotethatseveraloftheapproachesare
basedonconsiderationsotherthanequityprinciples.Forexample,severalallocateallowances
basedongrandfatheredemissionslevels,withatransitiontoanequitybasedallocationonlyover
severaldecadesorinsomecaseswithnosuchtransition.Othersallocateallowancesinproportion
toGDP,whileothersincludemitigationpotentialasonebasisinadditiontoequityprinciples.

4.7 Integrationofframingissuesinthecontextofsustainabledevelopment
Chapters2and3ofthisreportreviewtheframingissuesrelatedtoriskanduncertainty(Chapter2)
andsocial,economic,andethicalconsiderationsguidingpolicy(Chapter3).Theyexaminehowthese
issuesbearonclimatepolicy,bothonthemitigationandontheadaptationsideofourresponseto
thechallengeofclimatechange.Theirgeneralanalysisisalsodirectlyrelevanttotheunderstanding
ofSDandequitygoals.Thissectionbrieflyexamineshowtheconceptsreviewedinthesechapters
shedlightonthetopicofthepresentchapter.

4.7.1 Riskanduncertaintyinsustainabilityevaluation
Thesustainabilityidealseekstominimizerisksthatcompromisefuturehumandevelopment
(Sections4.2and4.5).Thisobjectiveislessambitiousthanmaximizinganexpectedvalueofsocial
welfareoverthewholefuture.Itfocusesonavoidingsetbacksondevelopment,andisthereforewell
inlinewithChapter2(Section2.5.1)highlightingthedifficultyofapplyingthestandarddecision
modelbasedonexpectedutilityinthecontextofclimatepolicy.Itisdirectlyakintothemethodsof
riskmanagementlistedthere(Sections2.5.22.5.7),inparticularthosefocusingonworstcase
scenarios.Theliteratureonadaptationhassimilarlyemphasizedtheconceptofresilience,whichis
theabilityofasystemtopreserveitsfunctionsinariskyandchangingenvironment(WGIISection
2.5andSections20.220.6,Folkeetal.(2010),Gallopin(2006)).
Thischapterhasreviewedtheactorsanddeterminantsofsupportforpoliciesaddressingtheclimate
challenge(Sections4.3and4.6).Amongtherelevantconsiderations,onemustincludehowrisk
perceptionsshapetheactorsunderstandingofthreatstosustainabilityandwillingnesstotake
action.Chapter2(Section2.4)hasdescribedhowframingandaffectiveassociationscanbeeffective

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andmanipulative,howabsenceorpresenceofadirectexperienceofclimateextremesmakes
individualsdistortprobabilities,andhowgradualchangesareeasytounderestimate.
Riskanduncertaintyarealsorelevanttothedimensionofequity,inrelationtosustainability,
becausevariousregionsoftheworldandcommunitieswithinthoseregionsexperienceunequal
degreesofclimateriskanduncertainty.Betterinformationaboutthedistributionofrisksbetween
regionsandcountrieswouldaffectthepolicyresponseandnegotiations.LecocqandShalizi(2007)
arguethattheabsenceofinformationaboutthelocationandextentofimpactsraisesincentivesfor
mitigation,andLecocqandHourcade(2012)showthattheoptimallevelofmitigationmayalso
increase.
Incorporatingriskintheevaluationofsustainabilityofadevelopmentpathwayischallengingand
hasbeenanalyzedinasmallliterature.Inparticular,BaumgrtnerandQuaas(2009)andMartinet
(2011)proposetodefinethresholdsforwellbeingorforvariousnaturalormanmadestocksandto
assesssustainabilitybytheprobabilitythatthresholdswillbecrossedintheforeseeablefuture.
However,adecisionmakermaynotfinditsufficienttocheckthattheriskofunsustainabilityis
belowagiventhreshold,andmayalsowanttoknowthelikelihoodofthebadscenariosandthe
harmincurredbythepopulationinthesescenarios.

4.7.2 Socioeconomicevaluation
Chapter3hasreviewedtheprinciplesofsocialandeconomicevaluationandequityinageneralway.
In3.6.1itrecallsthatthereisnowaconsensusthatmethodsofcostbenefitanalysisthatsimplyadd
upmonetaryequivalentgainsandlossesareconsistentandapplicableonlyunderveryspecific
assumptions(constantmarginalutilityofincomeandabsenceofpriorityfortheworseoff)whichare
empiricallydubiousandethicallycontroversial.Itisthusnecessarytointroduceweightsinsuch
summations(seeEq.3.6.2)thatembodysuitableethicalconcernsandrestoreconsistencyofthe
evaluation.Adler(2011)makesadetailedargumentinfavourofthissocialwelfarefunction
approachtocostbenefitanalysis.ThisapproachisfollowedbyAnthoffetal.(2009),refining
previoususeofequityweightsbyFankhauseretal.(1997)andTol(1999).Anadvantageofawell
specifiedmethodologyforthechoiceofequityweightsistheabilitytoreachmoreprecise
conclusionsthanwhenallpossibleweightsarespanned.Italsomakesitpossibletotransparently
relateconclusionstoethicalassumptionssuchasthedegreeofprioritytotheworseoff.
Chapter3(Sections3.23.4)describesthegeneralconceptsofsocialwelfareandindividualwell
being.Inapplicationstotheassessmentofdevelopmentpathsandsustainability,empirical
measuresareneeded.SeveralmethodsarediscussedinStiglitzetal.(2009)andAdler(2011).In
particular,thecapabilityapproach(Sen,2001,2009)iswellknownforitsbroadmeasureofwell
beingthatsynthesizesmultipledimensionsofhumanlifeandincorporatesconsiderationsof
autonomyandfreedom.Mostapplicationsofitdonotdirectlyrelyonindividualpreferences(Alkire,
2010).FleurbaeyandBlanchet(2013)defendanapproachthatreliesonindividualpreferences,ina
similarfashionasmoneymetricutilities.Someauthors(e.g.,Layardetal.(2008))evenproposeto
usesatisfactionlevelsobtainedfromhappinesssurveysdirectlyasutilitynumbers.Thisis
controversialbecausedifferentindividualsusedifferentstandardswhentheyanswerquestions
abouttheirsatisfactionwithlife(Graham,2009).
Onereasonwhywellbeingmaybeusefulasaguidingprincipleintheassessmentofsustainability,
asopposedtoamorepiecemealanalysisofeachpillar,isthatithelpsevaluatetheweakversus
strongsustainabilitydistinction.AsexplainedinSection4.2,weaksustainabilityassumesthat
producedcapitalcanreplacenaturalcapital,whereasstrongsustainabilityrequiresnaturalcapitalto
bepreserved.Fromthestandpointofwellbeing,thepossibilitytosubstituteproducedcapitalfor
naturalcapitaldependsontheconsequencesonlivingbeings.Ifthewellbeingofhumansdepends
directlyonnaturalcapital,ifthereisoptionvalueinpreservingnaturalcapitalbecauseitmayhave

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usefulpropertiesthathaveyettobediscovered,orifnonhumanlivingbeingsdependonnatural
capitalfortheirflourishing,thisgivespowerfulreasonstosupportaformofstrongsustainability.
Additionally,Chapter3(inparticularSections3.3and3.5)mentionsotheraspectsofequitythatare
relevanttopolicydebatesandinternationalnegotiationsonclimateresponses.Chapter3discusses
theseissuesatthelevelofethicalprinciples,andgiventheimportanceofsuchissuesinpolicy
debatesaboutmitigationefforts,Section4.6developshowtheseprincipleshavebeenappliedtothe
issueofburdensharinginclimateregime.

4.8 Implicationsforsubsequentchapters
Theprimaryimplicationofthischapterasaframingforsubsequentchaptersistounderscorethe
importanceofexplicitlyscrutinizingthecandidatemitigationtechnologies,measures,andpolicies
fortheirbroaderequityandsustainabilityimplications.Indeed,therelevantstakeholdersand
decisionmakershavevariouspriorities,inparticularregardingeconomicandhumandevelopment,
whichmayalignorconflictwithprospectiveclimateactions.Equitableandsustainabledevelopment
providesabroaderoverarchingframeworkwithinwhichtoexamineclimatestrategiesasoneofthe
multipleinteractingchallengesconfrontingsociety.Ultimately,itisaframeworkwithinwhich
societycanconsiderthefundamentalquestionofitsdevelopmentpathway.

4.8.1 Threelevelsofanalysisofsustainabilityconsequencesofclimatepolicyoptions
VariousdefinitionsandindicatorsofSDhavebeenintroducedinthischapter(inparticularin
4.2,.4.5).Thissubsectionoffersasimpletaxonomyofapproachesfortheassessmentof
sustainability.
Longtermevolutionofthethreepillars.Theoutcomesofclimatepolicyoptionscangenerallybe
observedinthethreespheresrelatedtothethreepillarsofSD:theeconomic,thesocial,andthe
environmentalsphere.Sustainabilityintheeconomyreferstothepreservationofstandardsofliving
andtheconvergenceofdevelopingeconomiestowardthelevelofdevelopedcountries.
Sustainabilityinthesocialspherereferstofosteringthequalityofsocialrelationsandreducing
causesofconflictsandinstability,suchasexcessiveinequalitiesandpoverty,lackofaccesstobasic
resourcesandfacilities,anddiscriminations.Sustainabilityintheenvironmentalspherereferstothe
conservationofbiodiversity,habitat,naturalresources,andtotheminimizationofecosystem
impactsmoregenerally.
Longtermevolutionofwellbeing.Thewaythethreespheres(andpillars)flourishcanbeviewedas
contributingtosustainingwellbeingforhumansaswellasforotherlivingcreatures.Humanwell
beingdependsoneconomic,social,andnaturalgoods,andtheotherlivingbeingsdependonthe
qualityoftheecologicalsystem.Itmaythereforebeconvenienttosummarizethemultiplerelevant
considerationsbysayingthattheultimateendresult,forsustainabilityassessment,isthewellbeing
ofalllivingbeings.Measuringwellbeingisconsidereddifficultforhumansbecausethereare
controversiesabouthowbesttodepictindividualwellbeing,andabouthowtoaggregateoverthe
wholepopulation.However,asexplainedinSections3.4and4.7,manyofthedifficultieshavebeen
exaggeratedintheliterature,andpracticalmethodologieshavebeendeveloped.Trulyenough,it
stillremainsdifficulttoassessthewellbeingofalllivingbeings,humansandnonhumanstogether.
But,evenifcurrentmethodologiesfallshortofoperationalizingcomprehensivemeasuresofwell
beingofthatsort,itisusefulforexpertswhostudyparticularsectorstobearinmindthatanarrow
notionoflivingstandardsforhumansdoesnotcoveralltheaspectsofwellbeingforthepurposesof
assessingsustainability.Itisalsousefultotrytoassesshowvariousinteractionsbetweenthethree
spherescanimpactonwellbeing.Whentherearetradeoffsbetweendifferentaspectsofthe
economic,social,andecologicaldimensions,onehastomakeanassessmentoftheirrelative
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Currentevolutionofcapacities.Sustainabilitycanalsobeassessedintermsofcapitalorcapacities,
assuggestedbysomeindicatorssuchasgenuinesavings(Section4.2).Preservingtheresources
transmittedtothefuturegenerationisakeystepinguaranteeingasustainablepath.Again,itis
usefultothinkofthecapacitiesunderlyingthefunctioningofthethreespheres:economic,social,
environmental.Theeconomicsphereneedsvariousformsofproductivecapitalandrawmaterials,
infrastructures,andapropitiousenvironment,butalsohumancapital,institutions,governance,and
knowledge.Thesocialsphereneedsvariousformsofinstitutionsandresourcesforsharinggoods
andconnectingpeople,whichinvolvecertainpatternsofdistributionofeconomicresources,
transmissionofknowledge,andformsofinteraction,coordination,andcooperation.Theecological
sphereneedstokeepthebasesofitshealth,includinghabitat,climate,andbiologicalintegrity.In
general,climatepolicyoptionscanaffectcapacitiesinallofthesespheres,tovaryingdegrees.

4.8.2 Sustainabilityandequityissuesinsubsequentchapters
Asdiscussedinthischapter(Sections4.2and4.5),sustainabilityisapropertyofadevelopment
pathwayasawhole.Andsomeoftheliteraturereviewedinthesubsequentchapters(616)actually
discussesdevelopmentpathwaysandthesustainabilitythereof.Inaddition,Chapters616discuss
individualissuesrelevanttoSDandequity.BasedonadetaileddescriptionofSDandequityissues
(rootedinthethreepillarsapproachforSD,seeSection4.8.1),thissectionprovidesamapanda
readersguideforthereportfromtheSDandequityperspective.Table4.1showswherethose
issuesareaddressedthroughoutthereport.Itissupplementedinthissectionbyabriefoutlineof
howeachchapterfrom616dealswiththem.
Thepresentsectionisbroaderthan,andacomplementto,Section6.6andTable6.5,whichsumup
anddiscusskeycobenefitsandadversesideeffectsinchapters712.Itisbroaderintwoways.
First,thepresentsectioncoversallchapters,notjustthesectoralchapters.Second,thepresent
sectionreviewsnotonlywherecobenefitsandadversesideeffectsarediscussed(the
developmentintheclimatelensapproachasinSathayeetal.(2007)),butalsowherethe
implicationsofkeydevelopmentpoliciesformitigationandmitigativecapacityarediscussed
(climateinthedevelopmentlens),andwhereintegrateddevelopmentpaths,includingbutnot
limitedtoclimatemitigation,areanalyzed.Ontheotherhand,Section6.6andTable6.5providea
moredetaileddescriptionofmanysortsofcobenefitsandadversesideeffects(notallofwhich
directlybearonSD).
Thereviewconductedinthepresentsectionleadstothreekeymessages.First,SDandequityissues
arepervasivethroughoutthechapters,reflectinggrowingliteratureandattentionpaidtothetopic.
Second,alargepartofthediscussionremainsframedwithintheframeworkofcobenefitsand
adversesideeffects.Althoughextremelyimportantanduseful,ithasbeennotedabove(Section4.2)
thatcobenefitsandadversesideeffectsareonlyabuildingblocktowardsafullSDassessment
whichisaboutintegratingthedifferentdimensionsinacomprehensivepathwayframework.Third,
whilesometopics,suchashealthcobenefitsandadversesideeffectsassociatedwithmitigation
policies,appearalreadywellcoveredintheliterature,othersremainscarcelyaddressed.In
particular,distributionalissues(bothdistributionalimplicationsofmitigationpoliciesand
implicationsofdifferentdistributionalsettingsforclimatepolicies),employment,andsocial
cohesiveness,havelimitedcoveragedespitebeingamongthekeySDgoalsthatpolicymakerswill
consider.
Thefollowingparagraphsbrieflydescribehoweachchapter(from5to16)dealswithSDandequity
issues.Chapter5analyzesthedriversofGHGemissions,andmanyofthesedrivershavetodowith
basiccharacteristicsofthedevelopmentpathway(population,economicgrowth,behaviours,
technology)thatimpactsustainabilityperspectives(5.3,5.5,5.6).Italsoprovidesabriefoverviewof
cobenefits(inparticularinhealth)andadversesideeffects(5.7)andtakesasystemperspectiveto
understandthelinkagesbetweenemissionsandthevariousdrivers(5.8)suchasystemicviewis
congenialtothecomprehensiveapproachtoSDdiscussedin4.2.

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Chapter6analyzesdistributionalconsequencesofdifferentinternationalburdensharingregimes
(6.3.6.6).Thischapteralsohighlightsthecontrastbetweentheliteraturesuggestingthatmitigation
mightincreasetheruralurbangapanddeterioratethelivingstandardsoflargesectionsofthe
populationindevelopingcountries,andtheSDliteraturestatingthatpolicyandmeasuresalignedto
developmentandclimateobjectivescandeliversubstantialcobenefits[Box6.2].Section.6.5.2
discussesunderlyingfactorsthatenableorpreventmitigation.Section6.6.1summarizesChapters
712informationoncobenefitsandadversesideeffects,while6.6.2attemptstolink
transformationpathwaystudieswithotherkeydevelopmentpriorities,includingairpollutionand
health(6.6.2.1),energysecurity(6.6.2.2),energyaccess(6.6.2.3),employment(6.6.2.4),biodiversity
(6.6.2.5),wateruse(6.6.2.6).Section6.6.2.7reviewsscenariostudiesanalyzingtheinteractions
betweenmitigation,airquality,andenergysecurityobjectives.

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Table 4.1. Overview of SD and equity issues as addressed in Chapters 516 of the WGIII AR5 report.
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

EQUITY
13.2.2.3
Distribution(withinandbetweencountriesand 15.5.2.3
5.3.3 6.3.6.6 7.9.1 8.10.1 9.7.1 11.7.1 12.6 13.4.2.4 14.1.3
generations) 15.5.2.4
13.13.1.2
11.7.1
Proceduralequity(Participation/involvement, 12.5.2.3
6.3.6.6 11.8.2 13.2.2.4 15.2.1
includinginstitutionalissues) 12.6.1
11.9.3
ECONOMIC
11.7.1 12.4.2
Employment 5.7.2 6.6.2.4 7.9.1 8.7.1 9.7.2.1 10.8.1 14.1.3
11.13.6 12.5.2.1
Standardsofliving 5.3.3 6.3.1.2 7.10.2 8.2.2.1 9.7.2.5 10.8.1 11.7.1 12.5.2.1
14.3.7
Financing 7.10.2 9.10.3.3 11.7.1 12.6.2 13.11.1 16.8
14.4.4
11.3.1
Innovation 5.6.1 6.5.1 7.9.1 8.7.3 10.8.4 12.2.1.3 13.9 14.3.6 15.6
11.13.6
6.3.6.4 7.9,1 12.3.2.1
Pathdependenceandlockins 5.6.3 8.4 9.4.3 11.3.2 14.3.2
6.4.3 7.10.5 12.4.1
EnergySecurity 5.3.4 6.6.2.2 7.9.1 8.7.1 9.7.2.2 10.8.1 11.13.6 12.8.2 14.4.3

SOCIAL
11.7.1
7.9,1
Poverty(alleviation) 6.6.2.3 8.7.1 9.7.2.5 11.8.1 14.1.3
7.10.3
11.13.6
12.4.2.4 14.3.2.1
Accesstoandaffordabilityofbasicservices 6.6.2.3 7.9.1 8.7.1 9.7.1 11.A.6
12.5.2.1
5.3.5 11.7.1
Foodsecurity 6.3.5 7.9.4
5.7.2 11.13.6/7
Educationandlearning 7.9.1 13.10 15.10 16.3
9.7.3.1 11.7.1 12.8.1
Health 5.7.1 6.6.2.1 7.9.2;7.9.3 8.7.1 10.8.1
9.7.3.2 11.13.6 12.8.3/4
11.7.1
Displacements 7.9.4 10.8.1
11.13.6
Qualityoflife 7.9.4 8.7.1 9.7.1 10.8.1 11.A.6 12.8.2/3
11.7
GenderImpacts 7.9.1(Box) 9.7.1
11.13.5
ENVIRONMENTAL
11.7.2 12.5.1
Ecosystemimpactsandbiodiversityconservation 5.7.2 6.6.2.6 7.9.2 8.7.1 9.7.1 10.8.1 14.3.5 15.5.6
11.13.6/7 12.8.1/4

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5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
11.7.2
12.6.1
Water,soils,andothernaturalresources 5.5.2 6.6.2.5 7.9.2;7.9.3 8.7.2 9.7.3.3 10.8.1 11.8.3
12.8.4
11.13.6

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Chapter7reviewstheliteratureonthecobenefits,risks,andspilloversofmitigationintheenergy
sector,withemphasisonemployment,energysecurityandenergyaccess(7.9.1),andhealthand
environmentalissues(7.9.2and7.9.3).Italsoputsenergymitigationoptionsintoabroader
developmentcontext,notablybyexamininghowspecialmechanismssuchasmicrofinancecanhelp
liftingruralpopulationsoutoftheenergypovertytrapandincreasethedeploymentoflowcarbon
energytechnologies(7.10.2).ItstressesthatpovertyitselfisshapingenergysystemsinLeast
DevelopedCountries(LDCs)andcreatingobstacles(e.g.,legalbarriers,orvandalism,ininformal
settlements)tothedistributionofelectricity(7.10.3).Italsohighlightstheimplicationsofthelong
lifedurationofenergysupplyfixedcapitalstock(7.10.5).
Chapter8emphasizestheimportanceofthetransportsectorbothforhumandevelopmentandfor
mitigation(8.1.1).Therearemanypotentialcobenefitsassociatedwithmitigationactionsinthe
transportsector,withrespecttoequitablemobilityaccess,healthandlocalairpollution,traffic
congestion,energysecurity,androadsafety(8.7.1).Itis,however,difficulttoassessthesocialvalue
ofsuchbenefits,andtherearerisksanduncertainties(8.7.2).Thechapteranalyzesthespecial
uncertaintiesandconcernsofdevelopingcountries,whereeffortsaremadetodeveloporimprove
institutionaleffectivenesstosupportintegratedplanning(involvingtransportation,landuse,energy,
agricultureandpublichealthauthorities)thatusestransportationasadriverfordeveloping
economicandsocialresilience(8.9.3).Finally,Chapter8mentionstheconcernswithmarketbased
policieshavingdifferentialimpactsacrosspopulationgroups(8.10.1).
Chapter9liststhecobenefitsandadversesideeffectsassociatedwithbuildings,notablyintermsof
employment(9.7.2.1),energysecurity(9.7.2.2),fuelpovertyalleviation(9.7.2.5),andhealth(9.7.3.1
and9.7.3.2).Detailedanalysisisalsoconductedonpathdependenceandlockineffectsassociated
withthebuildingstock(9.4.2)andwithfinancingissues,astheyrelatetotheparticularsituationsof
developingcountries(9.10.3).
Chapter10discussesthecobenefitsandadversesideeffectsassociatedwithmitigationactionsin
theindustrysector,focusingmostlyonmacroeconomicandhealthbenefits(10.8.1).Thechapter
alsofocusesonemploymentimpactsofecoinnovationandinvestment,notingthatsubstantial
impactsrequirejobsupportmechanisms,andthatthedistributionaleffectsofthesepoliciesand
acrossdifferentcountriesremainunclear(10.10.2).
Chapter11framesthediscussionofmitigationoptionsintheAgriculture,Forestry,andLandUse
(AFOLU)sectorwithinasystemicdevelopmentcontext(11.4.1).Itthoroughlyexaminesthesocio
economicimpactsofchangesinlanduse(11.7.1).Increasinglandrentsandfoodpricesduetoa
reductioninlandavailabilityforagriculture,andincreasinginequityandlandconflictsareserious
concerns(11.7.1).Specialcareforsmallholdersandequityissues,includinggender,should
accompanymitigationprojects(Box11.5).Bioenergydeploymentcanhavestrongdistributional
impacts,mediatedbyglobalmarketdynamics,includingpolicyregulationsandincentives,the
productionmodelanddeploymentscale,andplacespecificfactorssuchaslandtenuresecurity,
labourandfinancialcapabilities.Itcanraiseanddiversifyfarmincomesandincreaserural
employment,butcanalsocausesmallholders,tenantsandherderstoloseaccesstoproductiveland,
whileothersocialgroupssuchasworkers,investors,companyowners,biofuelsconsumers,would
benefit(bioenergyappendix).
Chapter12naturallyadoptsasystemicperspectiveindealingwithhumansettlements(12.1,12.4,
12.5.1),anddiscussesproceduralequityissuesinthecontextofcitygovernance(12.6).Itnotesthat
ahighdensitycity,dependingheavilyuponlandbasedpublicprivatefinancing,facesissuesofreal
estatespeculationandhousingaffordability(12.6.2).Adaptedtaxpoliciescanhelpintegratemarket
incentiveswithpolicyobjectivessuchassustainabletransitfinancing,affordablehousing,and
environmentalprotection.Section12.8focusesmorespecificallyonthecobenefitsofmitigation
optionsinhumansettlements,notablyintermsofimprovedhealth,butalsoregardingqualityoflife
(noise,urbanheatislandeffect)andenergysecurityandefficiency.

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Chapter13providesadetailedexaminationofvariousinternationalagreementsandmechanisms
throughthelensofdistributionalimpacts,notingthecomplexinteractionbetweenequityand
participationinvoluntarycooperationprocesses(13.2).Thechapterdiscussesthedistributional
impactsoftheKyotoProtocolaswellasvariousproposalsformultilateralsystems(globalpermit
market,globaltax,technologyorientedschemes)(13.13.2),linkages(13.7.2),andmore
decentralizedinitiativessuchastradesanctions(13.8)andgeoengineering(13.4.4).Chapter13
furtherdiscussesadvantagesandlimitationsoflinkingnegotiationsonmitigationandnegotiations
onotherdevelopmentobjectives(13.3.3).Linkswithpoliciesandinstitutionsrelatedtoother
developmentgoalsarenotdiscussed,exceptforrelationshipsbetweenmitigationandinternational
traderegulation(13.8).Finally,humanrightsandrightsofnaturearediscussedinsofarasthey
mightsupportlegalchallengestogreenhousegasesemissions(13.5.2.2).
Chapter14firmlyembedsitsanalysisofclimatepoliciesattheregionallevelwithinthecontextof
possibledevelopmentpaths,highlightingsignificantregionaldifferences(14.1.2,14.1.3).Given
heterogeneityofcapacitiesbetweencountries,itarguesthatregionalcooperationonclimate
changecanhelptofostermitigationthatconsidersdistributionalaspects.Inparticular,high
inequalitiesinpoorregionsraisedifficultdistributionalquestionsregardingthecostsandbenefitsof
mitigationpolicies(14.1.3).Mitigationopportunitiesarediscussedinthecontextofthebroader
developmentobjectives,withregardtoenergyaccess(14.3.2),urbanization(14.3.3),consumption
patterns(14.3.4),agricultureandlanduse(14.3.5),andtechnologicaldevelopment(14.3.6).
Relationshipsbetweenmitigationoptionsandregionaltradeagreementsnotadevelopment
objectivepersebutaninstrumentforachievingeconomicgrowtharealsoexamined(14.4.2).
Finally,Chapter14examinesthegeographicalconcentrationofCDMprojects(14.3.7).
Inanalyzingpoliciesatthenationalandsubnationallevel,Chapter15providesadetailedanalysisof
therelationshipsbetweenclimatechangemitigationandotherdevelopmentgoals.Whileitnotes
thepracticalimportanceofcobenefitsinthedesignofclimatepolicies(15.2.2),italsoshowsthat
certainmeasuressetupwithprimarilyotherdevelopmentobjectiveshaveimportantimplications
forclimatechangemitigation,eitherdirectlyintermsofemissionreductions,orindirectlyinterms
ofprovisionofpublicgoodsnecessaryformitigationpoliciestobeeffective(15.3.4,15.5.2,15.5.6).
Inaddition,thechapterhighlightstheimportanceofdesigningpolicypackagesthatjointlyaddress
differentdevelopmentobjectives,anddiscussesindepththeopportunitiesbutalsothedifficulties
ofsuchassociation(15.7.2,15.11.3).Chapter15insistsonthefactthatwhetherapolicyisadopted
ornot,andwhatoutcomeitfinallyhasstronglydependsonlocalcircumstances(notably
institutions),andontheprocessbywhichthedecisionismade(15.8.2,15.9).Finally,thischapter
notesthatwhilethedistributionalincidenceoftaxeshasbeenstudiedquiteextensively,muchlessis
knownaboutthedistributionalincidenceofotherpolicies(15.13).
Availabilityofresourcesforinvestmentiscriticalforsupportinganydevelopmentpath.The
literaturereviewedinChapter16notesthattherearebarrierstoinvestmentinmanycountries,not
specifictomitigationalthoughmitigationactivitieshavespecificcharacteristics(size,perceived
risks,etc.)thatmaketheirfinancingevenmoredifficult(16.8).However,Chapter16notesthatthe
literatureonfinancingremainslimited,andfocusesquitenarrowlyonenergymitigationpolicies.
Thereisverylittleevaluation,bothatthemicroandmacrolevel,ofhowinvestmentflowsinother
sectors(suchastransportationorhousing),couldberedirectedinrelationwithmitigation.

4.9 Gapsinknowledgeanddata
Thecurrentliteratureanddataintheareaofsustainabledevelopmentandequityhasgapsthat
couldbebetteraddressed.Thepointsbelowhighlightquestionsandconnectionsthatmayserveas
openingsforfutureresearch.

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Therelationshipbetweencountrieshumancapitallevelsandtheirnationaland
internationalengagementinclimatechangepolicywouldbenefitfromadditionalstudies.
Therearemanyopenquestionsabouthowdevelopingcountriescanbestpulltogetherthe
resourcesandcapabilitiestoachieveSDandmitigationobjectivesandhowtoleverage
internationalcooperationtosupportthisprocess.
Notmuchisknownaboutthedesirabilityandfeasibilityofvariouseconomicandpolicy
frameworksforthecompensationofforegonebenefitsfromexploitingfossilfuelsin
resourcerichcountries.
IntheeffortsmadetowardanevaluationoffundingnecessarytoimplementUNFCCC
mitigationandadaptationactivities,harmonizedandclearmethodologiesandprocessesare
stillmissingasabasisforaccurateestimates.
Itisstilldifficulttoassesstheunrealizedpotentialforreducingtheenvironmentalimpactof
economicactivityandtounderstandhowthispotentialcanberealized.
Fortechnologytransitions,knowledgeremainsinsufficientforacomparativeassessmentof
alternativeinnovationanddiffusionsystemsandanassessmentoftheinterplaybetween
propertyrights,marketsandgovernmentaction,takingaccountoflocalcircumstancesand
constraints.
TherelativeimportanceinaSDtransitionofchangesinvalues,asopposedtostandard
economicinstrumentsinfluencingbehavioursandeconomicactivity,remainshardtoassess.
Notmuchisknownabouttherelativepotentialoffrugality(lifestylesandconsumption
patternsinvolvinglowerexpendituresongoodsandservices)versusecologicallyconscious
behaviour(lifestylesandconsumptionpatternsinvolvingfewermaterialresourcesandless
environmentalharmwithoutnecessarilyreducingexpenditure)forpromotingSDandequity.
Thenoneconomicmotivationsforclimatefriendlybehavioursarenotwellunderstood,
particularlywithregardtotherespectiveroleofsocialconsiderationsorvalues(e.g.
universalismregardingfellowhumanbeings)versusecologicalconsiderations(universalism
regardingtheenvironment),andtheextenttowhichthesedriverscanbeseparated.
Thepredictivepowerofvaluesregardingecologicallyconsciousconsumerbehaviourisoften
low,typicallylessthan20%,duetoarangeoffactorsoperatingatdifferentlevels.The
causesofthisvalueactiongapregarding,especially,behavioursthatincreaseorlimitGHG
emissionsarenotwellunderstood.
Themeasurementofwellbeing,forthepurposeofpublicpolicy,remainsacontroversial
field,whichsuggestsaneedtofurtherexplorethepotentialusesofsubjectivedata,andalso
seekwaystoimprovethequalityofdataonwellbeing.
Theempiricaleconomicmodelsusedinthecontextofclimatepolicycouldsubstantially
improvebyintegratingtransitionissues(shortmediumterm)intolongtermanalysis,and
alsobyadoptingasequentialstructurecompatiblewiththeresolutionofuncertaintyover
time.
Thecurrentmethodologiesfortheconstructionofscenariosdonotyetdeliversufficiently
detailedandsufficientlylongtermdatainordertoassessdevelopmentpathsatthebarof
sustainabilityandequity.ThestudiesofSDimpactsofsectoralmeasuresintermsofco
benefitsareseldomintegratedintoacomprehensiveassessmentofsustainabilityofthe
generaldevelopmentpath.
Abetterunderstandingofthedistributionalimpactsofprospectiveclimatepolicieswould
provideguidancefordesigningequitablepolicies,andinsightintothepresentpolitical
economiclandscapewhereinsomeactorssupportclimateactionandothersopposeit.

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4.10 FrequentlyAskedQuestions
FAQ4.1WhydoestheIPCCneedtothinkaboutsustainabledevelopment?
Climatechangeisoneamongmany(someofthemlongstanding)threatstoSD,suchasthedepletion
ofnaturalresources,pollutionhazards,inequalities,orgeopoliticaltensions.Aspolicymakersare
concernedwiththebroaderissuesofSD,itisimportanttoreflectonhowclimaterisksandpolicies
fitinthegeneraloutlook.Thisreportstudiestheinterdependencebetweenpolicyobjectivesviathe
analysisofcobenefitsandadversesideeffects.Morebroadly,itexamineshowclimatepolicycanbe
conceivedasacomponentofthetransitionofnationstowardSDpathways(Sections4.2,4.6,4.8).
Manyfactorsdeterminethedevelopmentpathway.Amongthemainfactorsthatcanbeinfluenced
bypolicydecisions,onecanlistgovernance,humanandsocialcapital,technology,andfinance.
Populationsize,behavioursandvaluesarealsoimportantfactors.Managingthetransitiontoward
SDalsorequirestakingaccountofpathdependenceandpotentialfavourableorunfavourablelock
ins(e.g.,viainfrastructures),andattentiontothepoliticaleconomyinwhichallofthesefactorsare
embedded(Sections4.3,4.4,4.5).

FAQ4.2TheIPCCandUNFCCCfocusprimarilyonGHGemissionswithincountries.Howcan
weproperlyaccountforallemissionsrelatedtoconsumptionactivities,evenifthese
emissionsoccurinothercountries?
Foranygivencountry,itispossibletocomputetheemissionsembodiedinitsconsumptionorthose
emittedinitsproductivesector.TheconsumptionbasedframeworkforGHGemissionaccounting
allocatestheemissionsreleasedduringtheproductionanddistribution(i.e.,alongthesupplychain)
ofgoodsandservicestothefinalconsumerandthenation(oranotherterritorialunit)inwhichthey
resides,irrespectiveofthegeographicaloriginoftheseproducts.Theterritorialorproductionbased
frameworkallocatestheemissionsphysicallyproducedwithinanationsterritorialboundarytothat
nation.Thedifferenceinemissionsinventoriescalculatedbasedonthetwoframeworksarethe
emissionsembodiedintrade.ConsumptionbasedemissionsaremorestronglyassociatedwithGDP
thanareterritorialemissions.Thisisbecausewealthiercountriessatisfyahighershareoftheirfinal
consumptionofproductsthroughnetimportscomparedtopoorercountries.(Section4.4)

FAQ4.3Whatkindofconsumptionhasthegreatestenvironmentalimpact?
Therelationshipbetweenconsumerbehavioursandtheirassociatedenvironmentalimpactsiswell
understood.Generally,higherconsumptionlifestyleshavegreaterenvironmentalimpact,which
connectsdistributiveequityissueswiththeenvironment.Beyondthat,researchhasshownthatfood
accountsforthelargestshareofconsumptionbasedGHGemissions(carbonfootprints)withnearly
20%oftheglobalcarbonfootprint,followedbyhousing,mobility,services,manufacturedproducts,
andconstruction.Foodandservicesaremoreimportantinpoorcountries,whilemobilityand
manufacturedgoodsaccountforthehighestcarbonfootprintsinrichcountries.(Section4.4)

FAQ4.4Whyisequityrelevantinclimatenegotiations?
TheinternationalclimatenegotiationsundertheUNFCCCareworkingtowardacollectiveglobal
responsetothecommonthreatofclimatechange.Aswithanycooperativeundertaking,thetotal
requiredeffortwillbeallocatedinsomewayamongcountries,includingbothdomesticactionand
internationalfinancialsupport.Atleastthreelinesofreasoninghavebeenputforwardtoexplain
therelevanceofequityinallocatingthiseffort:(1)amoraljustificationthatdrawsuponwidely
appliedethicalprinciples,(2)alegaljustificationthatappealstoexistingtreatycommitmentsand
softlawagreementstocooperateonthebasisofstatedequityprinciples,and(3)
aneffectivenessjustificationthatarguesthataninternationalcollectivearrangementthat
isperceivedtobefairhasgreaterlegitimacyandismorelikelytobeinternationallyagreedand
domesticallyimplemented,reducingtherisksofdefectionandacooperativecollapse.(Sections4.2,
4.6)

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