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[client name deleted]:
I'm working on the Vinashin scandal and wanted to ask you a question about the
timing of the scandal:
Do you think the fact that the scandal is going out now in the media, less than 6
months before the party congress, is a mere coincidence? Or could it be politically
motivated to weaken a camp ahead of the congress? If, yes, who do you think is
targeted ?
ANSWER: Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung has been a major supporter of building
up Vietnamese business conglomerates along the model of South Korea’s chaebols.
He made the decision in 2009 to exempt Vinashin from the government audit that
was due. The fact that Vinashin is reported to be close to mismanagement due to
overextension and substandard management reflects poorly on the Prime Minister.
Since the Vietnamese press is not free to report on issues such as Vinashin, it is
obvious that a political decision has been made to publicize the issue. It is significant
that the first hint of scandal was raised by the party Inspection Committee and not
the State Inspection Commission or the Ministry of Public Security. This clearly
indicates Vinashin is a political issue. In such a scenario one must look to the
Secretariat and its head, first permanent secretary Truong Tan Sang. He has
aspiration to become the next party secretary general. Dung has been rumored to be
interested in this post, especially if it were combined with that of state president a la
China. But the merger of state president and party secretary general is apparently
not on the cards. The military is pushing for its nominee as state president. Dung has
therefore been boxed in his position as prime minster.
Dung has struck preemptively. He ordered the restructuring of Vinashin (the same
week it was announced Vinashin had signed a contract to carry out repairs on U.S.
navy auxiliary ships). Up to 26 Vinashin subsidiaries and their debts will be
transferred to PetroVietnam and Vinalines. These are also conglomerates in the
Dung mould. What could have been a threat to the prime minister has been turned
around by Dung himself. He is seen as preserving the role of conglomerates and their
large work forces. And Vinashin is to return to its core business of building ships. It
rose to the fifth largest ship builder in the world. And Vinashin will repair U.S. naval
auxiliaries, a signal to China that Vietnam has friends in the United States. Dung has
put himself in a win‐win situation.