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PETRONAS cautiously optimistic outlook, expecting a modest recovery in Liaw Thong Jung
oil price in 2017 amid an uncertain 2H17, is a similar tone in the industry. (603) 2297 8688
We take the view that the market has bottomed and is on a cyclical tjliaw@maybank-ib.com
recovery. Our key select prefered BUYs are SAKP (TP: MYR2.30), Yinson
(TP: MYR4.35) and Wah Seong (TP: MYR1.30).
Oil & Gas
Cyclical recovery
We take the view that the O&G sector has bottomed and is on a cyclical
recovery. An accelerated rebalancing of global crude oil market (via
supply cut by OPEC & non-OPEC members) will spur capex growth. Oil
price volatility will remain in 2017 as a key lookout is OPECs compliance
on output cut. Our crude oil price assumption of USD55/bbl avg for 2017
is unchanged. On the domestic front, we are seeing a revival in upstream
activities (i.e. rising drilling works), a positive sign. PETRONAS MYR60b
capex target for 2017 (+20% YoY) is also another positive.
Stock Bloomberg Mkt cap Rating Price TP Upside P/E (x) P/B (x) Div yld (%)
code (USD'm) (LC) (LC) (%) 16A 17E 16A 17E 16A 17E
SapuraKencana SAKP MK 2,451 Buy 1.82 2.30 26 10.8 61.2 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.0
Dialog Group DLG MK 2,030 Buy 1.66 1.93 16 32.9 31.5 3.6 3.3 1.3 1.3
Bumi Armada BAB MK 916 Hold 0.70 0.72 4 nm 15.1 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0
Yinson Holdings YNS MK 774 Buy 3.15 4.35 38 14.9 16.6 1.5 1.4 0.5 4.7
MMHE MMHE MK 329 Sell 0.92 0.90 (2) nm nm 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0
Wah Seong WSC MK 151 Buy 0.87 1.30 50 nm 8.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.0
KNM Group KNMG MK 138 Buy 0.29 0.58 104 nm 12.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
Barakah BARAKAH MK 118 Hold 0.64 0.63 (1) 54.8 19.8 1.1 1.1 0.0 0.0
Alam Maritim AMRB MK 58 Sell 0.28 0.13 (54) nm 508.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
THIS REPORT HAS BEEN PREPARED BY MAYBANK INVESTMENT BANK BERHAD PP16832/01/2013 (031128)
SEE PAGE 7 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS
Malaysia Oil & Gas
PETRONAS Results
Quarterly results Cumulative results
FY Dec (MYR b) 4Q16 3Q16 % QoQ 4Q15 % YoY FY16 FY15 % YoY
Turnover 58.6 48.7 20.2 60.1 (2.5) 204.9 247.7 (17.3)
EBIT 17.6 13.5 29.9 10.6 65.2 54.1 60.0 (9.9)
Int. expense (1.0) (0.7) 36.6 (0.9) 7.1 (3.3) (3.3) (1.0)
Associates 0.1 0.3 (52.5) 0.2 (40.3) 0.9 1.0 (16.7)
Exceptional item (1.2) (5.1) (77.2) (8.8) (86.7) (18.0) (21.1) (14.4)
Pretax profit 15.6 8.0 94.8 1.2 NM 33.7 36.7 (8.3)
Tax (4.3) (1.9) 124.1 (4.2) 3.9 (10.1) (15.8) (35.9)
Minority interest (1.8) (1.6) 17.6 (1.7) 5.8 (6.6) (7.7) (14.9)
Net profit 9.4 4.5 108.9 (4.7) NM 17.0 13.2 28.8
Net profit Ex EI 10.6 9.6 9.9 4.1 160.1 35.0 34.2 2.2
EBIT margin (%) 30.0 27.8 2.2 17.7 10.1 26.4 24.2 2.2
Tax rate (%) 27.9 24.2 3.6 341.7 (317.5) 30.2 43.1 (13.0)
Source: PETRONAS
75 3.90
76.27 3.62 3.66
60 3.60
3.30 3.36 61.92
3.23 3.19
45 53.97 3.30
50.26 49.46
43.69 45.57 45.85
30 33.89 3.00
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
1,000
500
0
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
637 535
2,000 437 693 595 620 681 380
614 383 545
690
1,500
1,000
500
0
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
1,500
1,000
500
0
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
4,000 0
Jan-Mar 11
Apr-Jun 11
Apr-Jun 12
Apr-Jun 13
Apr-Jun 14
Apr-Jun 15
Apr-Jun 16
Jul-Sep 11
Oct-Dec 11
Oct-Dec 12
Oct-Dec 13
Oct-Dec 14
Oct-Dec 15
Oct-Dec 16
Jan-Mar 12
Jan-Mar 13
Jan-Mar 14
Jan-Mar 15
Jan-Mar 16
Jul-Sep 12
Jul-Sep 13
Jul-Sep 14
Jul-Sep 15
Jul-Sep 16
Source: PETRONAS, Bloomberg
60 60
25 30 40
45 24 10
14 20
11 39 40
30 18 11 35
14 13 31 32 0
14 10 28
15 4 8 20 22 -20
15 18
11 10 10 12
0 -40
2003
2005
2006
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2015
2016
2004
2007
2012
2014
60.0
Oil market outlook: Expects oil demand growth of 1.3m bpd in 2017. Physical market has begun to tighten;
BP inventories falling faster than seasonal norms. Expects inventory overhang to be eroded by end-2017 if the
promised cuts (OPEC & non-OPEC) is delivered.
Capex: Spent USD16b in 2016 (below the projected USD17-19b). Targets USD16-17b in 2017.
Divestment: Sold USD3.2b in 2016. Targets USD4.5-5.5b in 2017.
Dividends: To sustain 10/ qtr.
Costs management: To sustain a balanced organic sources and uses of cash @ USD60/bbl by end-2017.
Capex: Spent USD19b in 2016 (below the projected USD23b; -38% YoY). Anticipates capex for 2017 to be USD22b.
ExxonMobil Dividends: Paid USD2.98/shr in 2016 vs. USD2.88 in 2015.
Impaired USD2b in 2016.
Target for 2016: Maintain and grow dividend, reduce capex, lower opex, complete asset sales, improve FCF and
Chevron returns.
Capex: Spent USD22b in 2016. Targets USD20b (-12% YoY) in 2017 and USD17-22b in 2018-2020.
Targets to lower opex to USD21-23b in 2017 (2016: USD24b), raise net production by 4-9% YoY (ex-asset sales).
Realised an average USD43.69/bbl (Brent) in 2016. Expects oil price to range between USD45-65/bbl in 2017.
ConocoPhillips Capex: Spent USD4.9b in 2016 (below initial USD5.7b target). Targets USD5b in 2017.
Opex: Targets USD6b (-10% YoY) in 2017.
Divestment: Targeting for a USD5-8b asset sales, primarily the North American natural gas.
Production: Expects 2017 to be 1,540-1,570m boed (0-2% YoY growth).
Earnings sensitivity: An additional USD100-120m for every USD1/bbl change.
Focused on raising dividends, debt reduction.
18bboe of resources has cost of supply of below USD40/bbl in 2016 (vs. 13bboe @ USD50/bbl in 2015).
Capex: Commits EUR16-17b for 2017 (vs. EUR18.3b in 2016; earlier target: EUR19b) and EUR15-17b p.a. in 2018-
Total SA 20. Maintaining discipline on investment.
Opex commitment: To cut by EUR3.5b in 2017 (vs. EUR2.8b in 2016; earlier target EUR2.4b) and targets to bring
production cost down to EUR5.50/boe in 2017 (vs. EUS5.90/boe in 2016; earlier target: EUR6.50/boe) and
EUR5.00/boe in 2018.
Production: Expects a 4% YoY growth in 2017.
Divestment: Targeting for a EUR10b asset sales in 2015-17. 80% completed to-date.
Net debt-to-equity ratio target: 20% (vs. 27% in 2016)
Source: Shell, BP, ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Eni, Total SA, Statoil, Maybank KE
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