Caitlin Ide

Math 1040
Project 5
Explain in general the purpose and meaning of a confidence interval. (5 points)
The confidence interval is used to calculate or measure the probability that a specific population will fall
within a parameter of two set values. This confidence interval will tell the individual how confident the
certain statistic is and will most likely be mentioned when providing the statistic they calculated. For
example, if 70 adults own a cell phone in a random sample of 100 adults, we can be fairly confident that
the true percentage in the population is somewhere between 61% and 79%(example provided by Khan
Academy).
Put simply, an interval of numbers based on a point estimate that gives a range of values that are ikely of
an unknown parameter.
Identify the requirements for computing confidence intervals. List the requirements
separately for a confidence interval for a population proportion and for a population
mean. (5 points)
Population Proportion:
1.) The size of the sample is no more than 5% of the size of the population it was drawn from.
2.) np(1-p) is greater or equal to 10. If the sample meets the requirement it means that it has a normal
distribution(approximately).

Or in less words,
1.) Simple Random Sample
2.) np hat(1- p hat)>=10
3.) n< = 0.05N

Population Mean:
1.) Simple Random Sample
2.) n<=.05N
3.) Population normal or n> = 30
Using values for the class data that you computed in Part 2 of the project, construct a
99% confidence interval estimate for the true proportion of yellow candies using the
class data as your sample. Remember that for this computation, n is the number of
CANDIES for the entire class data. Include all your work, showing the formula used
and appropriate values inserted (neatly written and scanned or typed). (10 points)
x(amount of yellow)= 626
n= 3228
p-hat= x/n = 626/3228 = .1939
Z a/2= 2.58
Formula: P hat + - z a/2 sq rt (p hat(1-p hat)/n
.1939 - (2.58) sq rt (.1939(1-.1939)/3228) = -2.3861 x .0069585156 = (.0166)
.1939 + (2.58) sq rt (.1939(1-.1939)/3228) = 2.7739 x .0069585156 = (.0193)
Answer: (.0166, .0193)
Give an appropriate interpretation of your interval. (5 points)
With 99% confidence, the true proportion of yellow candies is between .0166 and .0193.
Based on your interval for the true proportion of yellow candies, was the proportion of
yellow candies in the single bag of candy you purchased a likely value for the true
population proportion? Explain how you know using actual values from your data and
computations. (5 points)
P-hat: 12/63 = .1905
The proportion of yellow candies in my bad was not likely because it is higher than the interval.
Using values you computed in Part 2 of the project, construct a 95% confidence interval
estimate for the true mean number of candies per bag using the class data as your
sample, but for this computation, n is the number of BAGS. Include all your work,
showing the formula used and appropriate values inserted (neatly written and scanned
or typed). (10 points)
x bar= 59.777778
N= 54
Degrees of freedom= 54 - 1 = 53
invT(.95, 53) = 1.674
Standard Deviation= 2.2034849
x bar + - t a/2 s/(sq rt n)
59.777778 + 1.674 (2.203/ sq rt 54) = 61.451778 x .2998
59.777778 - 1.674 (2.2034849/ sq rt 54) = 58.1038 x .29987
(58.1038, 61.251778)
Give an appropriate interpretation of your interval. (5 points)
With 95% confidence the true mean number of candies per bag is between 58.1038 and 61.251778.
 Based on your interval for the true mean number of candies per bag, was the total
number of candies in the single bag you purchased a likely value for the population
mean? Explain how you know using actual values from your data and computations. (5
points)
I had a total of 63 candies in my bag. It was not likely because it was outside the interval.