INDIA

Wockhardt
WPL IN Neutral
Price (at 05:24, 22 Oct 2013 GMT) Rs478.75 UKMHRA restricts exports from Kadaiya
Valuation Rs 725.00 Event
- PER
12-month target Rs 435.00 UKMHRA has issued a restricted GMP certificate to Wockhardts Kadaiya,
Upside/Downside % -9.1 Nani Daman facility. This essentially means WPL will only be able to supply
12-month TSR % -9.1 critical products from this site to the EU (in order to avoid market shortages).
Volatility Index Very High While valuations remain supportive, we think multiples could be under pressure
GICS sector in the near to medium term, driven by uncertainty around remediation timelines,
Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life
Sciences
future approvals and USFDA regulatory risk on L1. We maintain our Neutral
Market cap Rsm 52,578 rating and reduce our 12-month TP to Rs435 from Rs480, as we expect the
Market cap US$m 862 stock to trade at a discount to fair value, which we now set at Rs725, down
Free float % 12 from Rs800.
30-day avg turnover US$m 4.9 Impact
Number shares on issue m 109.8
Sales to EU will be hit: While the names of products allowed to be manufactured
Investment fundamentals are currently not known, EU business from the Kadaiya facility contributed
Year end 31 Mar 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E
Revenue m 56,110 49,381 49,536 51,121
~8% to our earlier FY15E EBITDA estimate (we have now removed them from
EBITDA m 20,509 14,000 11,740 12,116 our assumptions). This facility does not supply anything to the US market.
EBITDA growth % 42.4 -31.7 -16.1 3.2
Adjusted profit m 15,210 10,266 8,062 8,062 Notably, a week ago UKMHRA also issued a restricted GMP certificate to
EPS adj Rs 136.78 92.32 72.50 72.50
EPS adj growth % 58.0 -32.5 -21.5 0.0
WPLs Chikalthana facility which generated annual sales of 12m (now, only
PER adj x 3.5 5.2 6.6 6.6 critical products worth 3m are allowed to be supplied). Chikalthana remains
Total DPS
Total div yield
Rs
%
0.00
0.0
0.00
0.0
0.00
0.0
0.00
0.0
a critical facility for WPLs US business as it contributed ~US$230m in US
ROA % 31.6 19.5 13.9 12.8 sales in FY13. The Chikalthana facility had also received certain observations
ROE % 72.9 31.9 19.5 16.3 from the USFDA. Any potential adverse regulatory action from the USFDA
EV/EBITDA x 3.0 4.3 5.2 5.0
Net debt/equity % 36.0 3.6 -10.1 -19.2 could impact earnings significantly. Almost 70% of our FY15E EBITDA is
P/BV x 2.0 1.4 1.2 1.0 dependent on the Chikalthana facility.
WPL IN rel BSE Sensex performance, & Early resolution critical: We think the speed with which WPL is able to
rec history
resolve regulatory issues is going to be critical (unlikely before FY15-16, in
our view). Apart from this, it remains critical that observations raised by FDA
for Chikalthana in the recent inspection are addressed to the regulators
satisfaction soon. WPL has already taken broader steps to ensure direct
corporate oversight over the quality and operations functions of all facilities
and also hired a third-party auditor (CGMP expert and data consultant).
Earnings and target price revision
We have cut our EPS for FY14E/15E/16E to Rs 92.3/72.5/72.5 (from
Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no
Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Rs96/Rs80/Rs80), building in loss of EU sales from Kadaiya. We now value
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2013 WPL at Rs725 at 10x FY15E PER but reduce our TP to Rs435 at 6x FY15E
(all figures in INR unless noted) PER (down from Rs480 based on 6x FY15E).
Price catalyst
12-month price target: Rs435.00 based on a PER methodology.
Analyst(s)
Abhishek Singhal Catalyst: Clarity regarding regulatory uncertainty, new product approvals
+91 22 6720 4086 abhishek.singhal@macquarie.com
Kumar Saurabh, CFA Action and recommendation
+91 22 6720 4091 kumar.saurabh@macquarie.com
We expect the stock to trade at a significant discount to fair value in the
22 October 2013 medium term until further clarity on regulatory issues emerges. We maintain
Macquarie Capital Securities India (Pvt) Neutral rating, but would advise against value hunting in the near term
Ltd (despite a seemingly attractive valuation at ~6x FY15E PER) until full clarity
regarding USFDA inspection for L1 emerges.

Please refer to the important disclosures and analyst certification on inside back cover of this document, or on our
website www.macquarie.com.au/disclosures.
Macquarie Research Wockhardt

Wockhardt (WPL IN, Neutral, Target Price: Rs435.00)

Quarterly Results 1Q/14A 2Q/14E 3Q/14E 4Q/14E Profit & Loss 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E

Revenue m 11,852 12,345 12,345 12,839 Revenue m 56,110 49,381 49,536 51,121
Gross Profit m 7,626 7,944 7,944 8,262 Gross Profit m 38,634 31,777 29,722 30,673
Cost of Goods Sold m 4,225 4,401 4,401 4,577 Cost of Goods Sold m 17,476 17,604 19,814 20,449
EBITDA m 3,360 3,500 3,500 3,640 EBITDA m 20,509 14,000 11,740 12,116
Depreciation m 304 316 316 329 Depreciation m 1,221 1,265 1,368 1,522
Amortisation of Goodwill m 0 0 0 0 Amortisation of Goodwill m 0 0 0 0
Other Amortisation m 0 0 0 0 Other Amortisation m 0 0 0 0
EBIT m 3,056 3,184 3,184 3,311 EBIT m 19,288 12,734 10,372 10,594
Net Interest Income m -180 -188 -188 -195 Net Interest Income m -2,154 -750 -600 -600
Associates m 0 0 0 0 Associates m 0 0 0 0
Exceptionals m 0 0 0 0 Exceptionals m 0 0 0 0
Forex Gains / Losses m 0 0 0 0 Forex Gains / Losses m 0 0 0 0
Other Pre-Tax Income m 59 62 62 64 Other Pre-Tax Income m 664 247 0 0
Pre-Tax Profit m 2,935 3,058 3,058 3,180 Pre-Tax Profit m 17,798 12,231 9,772 9,994
Tax Expense m -470 -489 -489 -509 Tax Expense m -2,582 -1,957 -1,710 -1,932
Net Profit m 2,466 2,569 2,569 2,671 Net Profit m 15,216 10,274 8,062 8,062
Minority Interests m -2 -2 -2 -2 Minority Interests m -6 -8 0 0

Reported Earnings m 2,464 2,567 2,567 2,669 Reported Earnings m 15,941 10,266 8,062 8,062
Adjusted Earnings m 2,464 2,567 2,567 2,669 Adjusted Earnings m 15,210 10,266 8,062 8,062

EPS (rep) 22.16 23.08 23.08 24.00 EPS (rep) 143.35 92.32 72.50 72.50
EPS (adj) 22.16 23.08 23.08 24.00 EPS (adj) 136.78 92.32 72.50 72.50
EPS Growth yoy (adj) % -32.5 -32.5 -32.5 -32.5 EPS Growth (adj) % 58.0 -32.5 -21.5 0.0
PE (rep) x 14.0 5.2 6.6 6.6
PE (adj) x 14.7 5.2 6.6 6.6

EBITDA Margin % 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 Total DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
EBIT Margin % 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 Total Div Yield % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Earnings Split % 24.0 25.0 25.0 26.0 Weighted Average Shares m 111 111 111 111
Revenue Growth % -12.0 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0 Period End Shares m 111 111 111 111
EBIT Growth % -34.0 -34.0 -34.0 -34.0

Profit and Loss Ratios 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Cashflow Analysis 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E

Revenue Growth % 21.6 -12.0 0.3 3.2 EBITDA m 20,509 14,000 11,740 12,116
EBITDA Growth % 42.4 -31.7 -16.1 3.2 Tax Paid m 3,341 1,957 1,710 1,710
EBIT Growth % 46.4 -34.0 -18.6 2.1 Chgs in Working Cap m -2,670 313 -34 -34
Gross Profit Margin % 68.9 64.4 60.0 60.0 Net Interest Paid m -2,154 -750 -600 -600
EBITDA Margin % 36.6 28.4 23.7 23.7 Other m 2,995 0 0 0
EBIT Margin % 34.4 25.8 20.9 20.7 Operating Cashflow m 22,022 15,519 12,816 13,192
Net Profit Margin % 27.1 20.8 16.3 15.8 Acquisitions m 12,883 0 0 0
Payout Ratio % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Capex m -2,618 -3,457 -3,468 -3,468
EV/EBITDA x 11.2 4.3 5.2 5.0 Asset Sales m 0 0 0 0
EV/EBIT x 12.0 4.8 5.9 5.7 Other m 589 247 0 0
Investing Cashflow m 10,854 -3,210 -3,468 -3,468
Balance Sheet Ratios Dividend (Ordinary) m 0 0 0 0
ROE % 72.9 31.9 19.5 16.3 Equity Raised m -3,509 0 0 0
ROA % 31.6 19.5 13.9 12.8 Debt Movements m -15,820 0 0 0
ROIC % 37.3 29.1 22.1 20.9 Other m 3,129 0 0 0
Net Debt/Equity % 36.0 3.6 -10.1 -19.2 Financing Cashflow m -16,199 0 0 0
Interest Cover x 9.0 17.0 17.3 17.7
Price/Book x 8.2 1.4 1.2 1.0 Net Chg in Cash/Debt m 16,793 12,310 9,349 9,724
Book Value per Share 243.2 335.5 408.0 480.5
Free Cashflow m 19,404 12,063 9,349 9,724

Balance Sheet 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E

Cash m 10,961 19,356 25,285 30,941

Receivables m 9,585 9,295 9,327 9,649
Inventories m 10,588 10,268 10,303 10,660
Investments m 26 26 26 26
Fixed Assets m 16,413 18,604 20,704 22,761
Intangibles m 7,264 7,264 7,264 7,264
Other Assets m 5,564 5,499 5,506 5,578
Total Assets m 60,401 70,313 78,415 86,880
Payables m 6,342 6,150 6,171 6,384
Short Term Debt m 5,953 5,953 5,953 5,953
Long Term Debt m 14,752 14,752 14,752 14,752
Provisions m 0 0 0 0
Other Liabilities m 6,313 6,143 6,161 6,350
Total Liabilities m 33,359 32,997 33,037 33,440
Shareholders' Funds m 27,042 37,308 45,370 53,432
Minority Interests m 0 8 8 8
Other m 0 0 0 0
Total S/H Equity m 27,042 37,316 45,378 53,440
Total Liab & S/H Funds m 60,401 70,313 78,415 86,880

All figures in INR unless noted.

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, October 2013

22 October 2013 2
Macquarie Research Wockhardt

Important disclosures:
Recommendation definitions
Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand
Outperform return >3% in excess of benchmark return
Neutral return within 3% of benchmark return
Underperform return >3% below benchmark return
Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal
GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend
yield
Macquarie Asia/Europe
Outperform expected return >+10%
Neutral expected return from -10% to +10%
Underperform expected return <-10%
Macquarie First South - South Africa
Outperform expected return >+10%
Neutral expected return from -10% to +10%
Underperform expected return <-10%
Macquarie - Canada
Outperform return >5% in excess of benchmark return
Neutral return within 5% of benchmark return
Underperform return >5% below benchmark return
Macquarie - USA
Outperform (Buy) return >5% in excess of Russell
3000 index return
Neutral (Hold) return within 5% of Russell 3000 index
return
Underperform (Sell) return >5% below Russell 3000
index return
Volatility index definition*
This is calculated from the volatility of historical
price movements.
Very highhighest risk Stock should be
expected to move up or down 60100% in a year
investors should be aware this stock is highly
speculative.
High stock should be expected to move up or
down at least 4060% in a year investors should
be aware this stock could be speculative.
Medium stock should be expected to move up
or down at least 3040% in a year.
Lowmedium stock should be expected to
move up or down at least 2530% in a year.
Low stock should be expected to move up or
down at least 1525% in a year.
* Applicable to Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only
Recommendations 12 months
Note: Quant recommendations may differ from
Fundamental Analyst recommendations
Financial definitions
All "Adjusted" data items have had the following
adjustments made:
Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for
catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging,
IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense
Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property
revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends &
minority interests
EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa*
ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets
ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average
total assets
ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds
Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation
*equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average
number of shares
All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks
are modelled under IFRS (International Financial
Reporting Standards).

Recommendation proportions For quarter ending 30 September 2013

AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR
Outperform 50.56% 56.87% 48.78% 41.00% 61.75% 47.10% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 5.85% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)
Neutral 38.95% 25.18% 42.68% 54.40% 34.43% 30.89% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 3.90% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)
Underperform 10.49% 17.94% 8.54% 4.60% 3.83% 22.01% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 0.00% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)

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Risk Disclosure: Any inability to compete successfully in their markets may harm the business. This could be a result of many factors which may include
geographic mix and introduction of improved products or service offerings by competitors.The results of operations may be materially affected by global
economic conditions generally, including conditions in financial markets.The company is exposed to market risks, such as changes in interest rates,
foreign exchange rates and input prices. From time to time, the company will enter into transactions, including transactions in derivative instruments, to
manage certain of these exposures.
Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/disclosures.
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22 October 2013 3
Macquarie Research Wockhardt

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