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CANADA

Energy Infrastructure
Ranking of covered stocks

C o m pa ny
P ric e
T ic k e r 0 8 / 3 0 / 13 T a rge t R a t ing
Week in review: Aug 26 Sept 2
A ltaGas A LA $ 35.93 $ 44.00 Outperfo rm
Inter P ipeline IP L $ 24.35 $ 27.00 Outperfo rm
Sector Headlines
Enbridge ENB $ 43.19 $ 54.00 Outperfo rm
P embina PPL $ 32.68 $ 39.00 Outperfo rm
TransAlta (TA CN, not rated) re-contracted its Ottawa gas power plant for another
Keyera KEY $ 57.63 $ 66.00 Outperfo rm 20 years with a new power supply term with the Ontario Power Authority. LINK
A lgo nquin A QN $ 6.74 $ 8.00 Outperfo rm
Gibso n GEI $ 22.59 $ 31.00 Outperfo rm Over 150 investors and corporates joined our August 27 conference call on which
No rthland NP I $ 14.34 $ 19.00 Outperfo rm we discussed the recent dynamics around the AECO gas price. The key takeaway
Capsto ne CSE $ 3.91 $ 4.50 Outperfo rm
is that we expect the cash market for AECO pricing to continue to remain wide,
Veresen VSN $ 12.01 $ 13.50 Neutral
A tlantic A TP $ 4.20 $ 4.50 Neutral which modestly benefits Pembina (PPL, Outperform, TP: $39) and Inter Pipeline
(IPL, Outperform, TP: $27), given their frac spread exposure.
Energy Infrastructure Returns (YTD)
Midstream: 7.6% Power: (15.1%) Utilities: (3.8%) Capital Power (CPX CN, not rated) announced the sale of its New England power
25%
20%19%
10%8% 7% 7%
plants to Emera (EMA CN, not rated). Shares of both Emera and Algonquin
3%2% 1% 1%
5% Power (AQN, Outperform, TP: $8.00) reacted negatively due to concerns that
(0%)
(15%) (3%)
(4%)
(5%)
(6%)
(9%)
(12%) Emera may reduce its strategic interest in AQN to fund the deal (Fig 2). On the
(20%)
(35%)
contrary, we believe Emera could likely sell other assets or issue equity. We
(55%)
recommend investors should take advantage of AQNs weakness, given its
(75%) (61%)
diversification and relatively better growth prospects within the power & utilities
IPL

EMA
CU

NPI
KEY

TRP
ACO/X

GEI
ENB

AQN
CSE

CPX
S&P/TSX
PPL
ALA

FTS
TA

ATP
VSN

sector. LINK

80% 73% S&P TSX Sub-Index Returns (YTD & 12mo)


Media reports (link) suggest Veresen (VSN, Neutral, TP: $13.50) is pitching a
54%
37%
gas-fired plant to Terrace, BC, where it has a land purchase MOU.
50%
28% 41%
29% 27%

20%
18%
21%
13%
19%
10%
PPL signed a contract with Questerre Energy (QEC CN, not rated) for processing
5% 7% 1%6%
20MMcf/d of gas and NGLs. This has no impact on our valuation. LINK
(10%)
(6%)
(9%) (22%)
(40%) (24%) Weekly Performance
Utilities
Health Care

Industrials
Cons. Stap.
Cons. Discr.

Energy
Info Tech

Financials

Telco

Materials

Midstream
Coverage Universe
YTD Price Rtn 12mo Price Rtn Dividend Energy Infrastructure
Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, Macquarie Research, September Power
2013 S&P/TSX
Utilities
(1.5%) (1.0%) (0.5%) 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0%
Inside
Coverage Universe includes ALA, AQN, ATP, CSE, ENB, GEI, IPL-U, KEY, NPI, PPL, VSN
Energy Infrastructure includes ACO/X, ALA, AQN, ATP, CPX,CSE, CU, EMA, ENB, FTS, GEI, IPL, KEY, NPI, PPL, TA, TRP, VSN
Item(s) of the Week .................................. 2 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, September 2013
Key events ................................................ 4
Top research ............................................. 5
Valuation and DCF assumptions .............. 6 This Weeks Watchlist
Investment thesis ...................................... 7
Comps .................................................... 10 Shareholders vote on Capstone Infrastructures (CSE, Outperform, TP$4.50)
acquisition of Renewable Energy Developers (RDZ CN, not rated). LINK
Analyst(s)
Rob Catellier, CFA NEB hearings begin for TransCanadas (TRP CN, not rated) mainline tariffs.
+1 416 848 3512 rob.catellier@macquarie.com
Konark Gupta Investment Thesis
+1 416 848 3539 konark.gupta@macquarie.com
We rank Midstream over Power over Utilities. Midstream is outperforming on
3 September 2013 stronger growth prospects, which is translating into dividend growth. Within
Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd. Midstream, IPL is our favourite in the near term for its corporate conversion.

Please refer to the important disclosures and analyst certification on inside back cover of this document, or on our
website www.macquarie.com/disclosures.
Macquarie Research Energy Infrastructure

Item(s) of the Week


TransAlta PPA Renewal TransAlta signed a new agreement for a 20-year power supply term with the
Ontario Power Authority for its Ottawa gas-fired facility. The previous agreement was set to expire at the
end of 2013. Under the new deal the plant will become a peaking facility. Converting to a peaking plant is
necessary to help reduce surplus baseload generation, which has the impact of increasing government
subsidies through the Global Adjustment Mechanism. While pricing has not been revealed, a 20-year
term is encouraging. Although a longer contract can suggest lower cash flow per year due to a longer
amortization period of any investment required for the conversion, this is a favourable trade off both for
ratepayers and infrastructure companies.
As this is the first new agreement for Non-Utility Generators (NUGs), which hopefully implies that
resolution for Capstones Cardinal plant is inching forward, although every negotiation is unique. The
timing for Capstone is also encouraging, as it may give shareholders of its acquisition target, ReD, more
comfort in approving the share-based acquisition as there is now a precedent for a NUG renewal. This
reduces the risk associated with receiving shares of Capstone as consideration for the acquisition. Votes
for the acquisition are to be held September 4.
Algonquin Power The market penalized AQN last week (Fig 2) on what we think may be developing
concerns that Emera may reduce its strategic interest in AQN to fund its US$541m acquisition of three
New England power plants from Capital Power. We recommend investors take advantage of current
share price weakness, as we believe Emera is more likely to sell other assets or issue equity, instead of
divesting its AQN stake at this time, based on the following reasons: 1) Emera has been building its
position in AQN; and 2) Emera has a strategy of adding to its northeast US assets, and we believe AQN
fits this profile. Recall, Emeras investment agreement with AQN and Maine Public Utility Commissions
ruling allow Emera to own up to 25% equity interest in AQN, while limiting the ownership to 5% of
Emeras total assets. Interestingly, the 5% threshold implies Emera will have more room for AQN, pro
forma the acquisition of Capital Powers assets, although still capped at 25% of AQN. Rather than
creating an overhang, the implications are that Emera actually has more capacity to backstop future
equity issuances from AQN up to the 25% level.

Fig 1 Total return comparison for the week ending Aug 30


CPX, 3.6%
GEI, 3.6%
KEY, 2.1%
PPL, 1.8%
VSN, 1.7%
ALA, 0.9%
AQN, 0.7%
IPL, 0.5%
TRP, 0.3%
ENB, 0.2%
TA, -0.1% Midstream Average: 1.4%
FTS, -0.4%
ACO.X, -0.4% Power Average: 0.0%
CU, -0.8%
S&P/TSX, -0.8% Utilities Average: -1.1%
NPI, -1.2%
ATP, -1.3%
CSE, -1.5%
EMA, -2.6%
-4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, September 2013

3 September 2013 2
Macquarie Research Energy Infrastructure

Fig 2 Total return comparison for Aug 27-29 (impact of Capital Powers announcement)
CPX, 4.0%
GEI, 3.1%
VSN, 2.4%
IPL, 2.3%
KEY, 2.1%
ATP, 1.8%
ALA, 1.4%
TRP, 1.4%
ENB, 1.3%
S&P/TSX, 0.9%
CU, 0.7% Midstream Average: 1.8%
PPL, 0.6%
FTS, 0.1% Power Average: 0.5%
ACO.X, 0.1%
NPI, -0.1% Utilities Average: -0.1%
CSE, -0.5%
TA, -0.7%
AQN, -1.3%
EMA, -1.4%
-2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, September 2013

3 September 2013 3
Macquarie Research Energy Infrastructure

Key events

2015
November 30 Expiry of vast majority of Alliance Pipelines long-term transportation agreements
2013
December 31 Joint Review Panel report on Enbridges proposed Northern Gateway project
November 13 AltaGas will host investor day in Toronto, Ontario
October 8 NEB hearings begin for Enbridges proposed Line 9B reversal project
October 1 NEB hearings begin for Enbridges proposed Edmonton-Hardisty project
October 1 Enbridge will host investor day in Toronto, Ontario
September 18 Northland Power will host investor day in North Battleford, Saskatchewan
September 10 AltaGas hosts a site tour at its Forrest Kerr project in BC
September 4 Capstone Infrastructure and ReD special shareholder meeting for ReD acquisition
September 3 NEB hearings begin for TransCanadas proposed Mainline tariff amendments
September 1 Effective date for Inter Pipelines corporate conversion
August 22 Inter Pipeline unitholders and court approved the proposed corporate conversion
August 16 Ontario Power Authority made changes to the Feed-in Tariff (FIT) Program
August 15 Precedent agreement signing period began for Alliance Pipelines post-2015 capacity
July 1 Effective date for TransCanadas revised Mainline tolls set by NEB on March 27, 2013
June 24 NEB hearings ended for Enbridges proposed Northern Gateway project
March 27 NEB fixed multi-year tolls for TransCanadas Mainline effective July 1, 2013
February 4 NEB granted LNG export license to LNG Canada Developments Kitimat terminal

3 September 2013 4
Macquarie Research Energy Infrastructure

Top research

Company reports
Inter Pipeline Dawn of a new era | Full report (LINK)
Algonquin Power Power benefits from diversification | Full report (LINK)
Keyera The plot thickens | Full report (LINK)
Capstone Infrastructure Cardinal still in the wings | Full report (LINK)
Pembina Pipeline The Holy Trinity | Full report (LINK)
Atlantic Power Bumpy ride ahead | Full report (LINK)
Inter Pipeline New oil sands volumes secured | Full report (LINK)
Northland Power Growth questions loom | Full report (LINK)
Veresen Any further ahead? | Full report (LINK)
Keyera Dividend increase justified by operations and outlook | Full report (LINK)
Gibson Energy Capex outlook a sign of the times | Full report (LINK)
Atlantic Power Restricted ability to grow | Full report (LINK)
Gibson Energy Step in the right direction | Full report (LINK)
Northland Power Fork in the road | Full report (LINK)
AltaGas More good news | Full report (LINK)
Enbridge Earnings on track | Full report (LINK)
Pembina Pipeline The buck doesn't stop here | Full report (LINK)
Keyera Strategic value continues to surface | Full report (LINK)
Enbridge Oil sands is still a growth story | Full report (LINK)
Inter Pipeline New agreement illustrates potential | Full report (LINK)
Capstone Infrastructure ReD acquisition requires patience | Full report (LINK)
Pembina Pipeline Progress on the oil sands front | Full report (LINK)
Keyera Blocking and tackling | Full report (LINK)
Enbridge Expanding the tool box | Full report (LINK)
AltaGas California bound | Full report (LINK)
Inter Pipeline Transportation agreements for backbone in place | Full report (LINK)
Keyera Coiled spring | Full report (LINK)

Initiation reports
Enbridge Making a diff-erence | Full report (LINK)

Sector & Thematic reports


Impact of Alberta Floods - Stocks soggy but not washed up | Full report (LINK)
Canadian Strategy - The Yield shoe still fits | Full report (LINK)
Land recapitalization continues - Land sale set up future growth | Full report (LINK)
2013 Outlook - Brave new world | Full report (LINK)
Canadian LNG: The race to the coast - Our views on Canadian LNG | Full report (LINK)
Midstream sector update - NGL demand response to steady the market but... | Full report (LINK)

3 September 2013 5
Macquarie Research Energy Infrastructure

Valuation and DCF assumptions

Fig 3 2014E EV/EBITDA valuation


18x 16.1x 15.7x 15.2x
16x 14.2x 13.9x
14x 12.7x
11.7x 11.6x 11.4x 11.2x
12x
10x 9.2x 9.0x
8x
6x
4x
2x
0x
IPL ENB PPL ALA KEY NPI TRP VSN AQN ATP GEI CSE
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, September 2013

Fig 4 2015E EV/EBITDA valuation


16x 14.8x 14.4x
14x 13.0x 12.5x 12.5x 12.3x 11.7x 11.5x
12x 10.5x 10.3x
10x 8.8x
8.1x
8x
6x
4x
2x
0x
ENB PPL ALA KEY IPL ATP NPI TRP VSN AQN CSE GEI
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, September 2013

Fig 5 DCF assumptions

Risk- Equity risk Cost of Terminal Cost of


Company free rate Beta premium equity growth LT debt WACC DCF
AltaGas 3.0% 0.75 9.0% 9.75% 2.10% 6.00% 6.72% $43.79
Enbridge 3.0% 0.65 9.0% 8.85% 1.80% 5.00% 5.52% $53.89
Gibson Energy 3.0% 0.85 9.0% 10.65% 2.00% 6.50% 8.05% $31.06
Inter Pipeline 3.0% 0.70 9.0% 9.30% 1.60% 5.75% 6.81% $27.27
Keyera 3.0% 0.70 9.0% 9.30% 2.25% 5.75% 7.01% $66.01
Pembina Pipeline 3.0% 0.75 9.0% 9.75% 2.25% 5.75% 7.03% $39.40
Veresen 3.0% 0.80 9.0% 10.20% 1.00% 6.00% 6.93% $13.40
Algonquin Power 3.0% 0.80 9.0% 10.20% 1.13% 6.50% 7.54% $7.95
Northland Power 3.0% 0.70 9.0% 9.30% 0.50% 7.25% 6.99% $18.95
Atlantic Power 3.0% 1.20 9.0% 13.80% 0.00% 7.00% 9.51% $4.57
Capstone Infrastructure 3.0% 0.85 9.0% 10.65% 0.80% 7.00% 8.21% $4.55
Source: Macquarie Research, September 2013

3 September 2013 6
Macquarie Research Energy Infrastructure

Investment thesis

AltaGas ALA Accelerated dividend growth and low near-term earnings risk

Outperform AltaGas is a diversified energy infrastructure company with assets in midstream, power
generation and utility businesses in Canada and the US. We believe ALA will be one of the
TP: $44.00
fastest free cash flow growers of the peer group from commercially secured projects. We expect
this to translate into accelerated dividend growth even as it balances dividends with growth
opportunities. Future catalysts include capital deployment announcements, Forrest Kerr (mid-
2014), McLymont Creek and Volcano Creek (mid-2015), a potentially material PNG pipeline
expansion, CNG/LNG/LPG export development, and potentially a Blythe expansion. Our 12-
month target price of $44.00 is based on a DCF methodology.

Inter Pipeline IPL Corporate conversion lowers funding risk and supports growth

Outperform Inter Pipeline is a diversified energy infrastructure company with assets in the pipeline, storage
and NGL extraction businesses and operations in Western Canada, Denmark, Germany,
TP: $27.00
Ireland and the UK. We believe IPL is a great way to play oil sands growth given its expansion
opportunities and stable cash flow profile, along with reduced dilution risk from corporate
conversion. Future catalysts include effects of corporate conversion (September 1), capital
deployment announcements, Cold Lake / Polaris expansion (2014-17), and potentially more
transportation agreement announcements. Our 12-month target price of $27.00 is based on a
DCF methodology.

Enbridge ENB Strong growth outlook, but headline risk

Outperform Enbridge is a bellwether diversified energy infrastructure company with assets in the liquids
transportation, storage, gas and power generation businesses and operations in Canada and
TP: $54.00
the US. We believe ENB is the best way to play differentials form an infrastructure perspective,
given its highly visible earnings and dividend growth. Future catalysts include capital
deployment announcements, commissioning of $28bn in commercially secured growth projects
(2012-16), Trunkline conversion (not in our valuation), and potentially gas-fired power and
international expansion. Our 12-month target price of $54.00 is based on a DCF methodology.

Pembina PPL Attractive growth visibility and diminishing marketing risk


Pipeline
Outperform Pembina is a diversified energy infrastructure company with assets in the pipeline, storage,
terminal, marketing and gas processing businesses and operations in Western Canada. We
TP: $39.00
believe PPL is an excellent way to gain exposure to the strong liquids environment, with upside
associated with oil price differentials and NGL export development. Future catalysts include
capital deployment announcements, Phase I & II pipeline expansion (2013-15), midstream
infrastructure growth (2013-15), and potentially Phase 3 pipeline expansion (not in our
valuation). Our 12-month target price of $39.00 is based on a DCF methodology.

3 September 2013 7
Macquarie Research Energy Infrastructure

Keyera KEY Strong dividend growth & outlook and diminishing marketing risk

Outperform Keyera is one of the largest midstream companies in Canada with assets in the gas gathering
and processing and NGL midstream businesses and operations in Alberta and BC. We believe
TP: $66.00
KEY is well-positioned to benefit from growth in liquids-rich gas production in the Deep Basin
and oil sands activity, along with Alberta Envirofuels expanding market reach and weak butane
prices in the near term. Future catalysts include capital deployment announcements such as the
Simonette expansion and deep cut, fractionation expansion, rail expansion, and potential NGL
Pipeline Project (late 2015, not in our valuation). Our 12-month target price of $66.00 is based
on a DCF methodology.

Algonquin AQN Tough IPP market, but attractive growth & diversification
Power
Outperform Algonquin owns and operates a diversified portfolio of non-regulated power generation assets
(renewable and thermal) across North America and regulated utilities (water, electricity and gas)
TP: $8.00
in the US. While we are growing cautious about the North American IPP market, AQN is our top
power pick for its visible growth and exposure to contracted power and utilities. Future catalysts
include utility rate increases, commissioning of power projects (2013-16), and potentially
acquisitions. Our 12-month target price of $8.00 is based on a DCF methodology.

Gibson GEI Capex accelerating, but differentials tightening


Energy
Outperform Gibson is a large integrated midstream company providing liquids midstream, retail propane
distribution, environmental and fluid handling services, with operations in Canada and the US.
TP: $31.00
GEI should benefit from multiple expansion over time as it continues to invest in infrastructure
assets. Future catalysts include capital deployment announcements, Hardisty unit train facility
(1Q14), Edmonton terminal expansion (1H15), new storage capacity (2014-15), and
development of its relatively new environmental services platform. Our 12-month target price of
$31.00 is based on a DCF methodology.

Northland NPI Tough IPP market, but shares undervalued


Power
Outperform Northland owns and operates a diversified portfolio of power generation assets (primarily gas-
fired but also renewable) in Canada. While we are growing cautious about the North American
TP: $19.00
IPP market as NPIs recent stake in an offshore wind project in the North Sea elevates its risk
profile and potentially limits near-term dividend increase, we believe NPI is undervalued and its
dividend yield is sustainable. Future catalysts include the investor day (September 18), which
may reduce concern over the recently announced Gemini offshore wind project, and approval of
Marmora pumped storage project (not in our valuation). Our 12-month target price of $19.00 is
based on a DCF methodology.

3 September 2013 8
Macquarie Research Energy Infrastructure

Capstone CSE Cardinal still in the wings, while IPP market challenging
Infrastructure
Outperform Capstone owns and operates a diversified portfolio of power generation assets (gas and
renewable) in Canada and also has interests in utilities (heat and water) in Europe. We remain
TP: $4.50
in a holding pattern owing to the Cardinal outcome uncertainty, while we are also growing
cautious about the North American IPP market. Future catalysts include Cardinal recontracting
and the ReD acquisition (closing in 3Q13, and commissioning of development projects in 2014-
15). Our 12-month target price of $4.50 is based on a DCF methodology.

Veresen VSN High yield and Jordan Cove balancing Alliance recontracting and payout ratio risks

Neutral Veresen is a diversified energy infrastructure company with assets in the pipeline, midstream
and power generation businesses and operations in Canada and the US. Investors must weigh
TP: $13.50
the attractive current dividend yield and increasingly higher possibility of the Jordan Cove
project (not in our valuation) against VSNs high payout ratio and Alliance Pipeline recontracting
risk. Future catalysts include capital deployment announcements, Alliance post-2015 capacity
agreements (through to 2015), and Jordan Cove approvals (mainly non-FTA export license).
Our 12-month target price of $13.50 is based on a DCF methodology.

Atlantic Power ATP Dividend sustainability at risk on potential covenant breach

Neutral Atlantic owns and operates a diversified portfolio of power generation assets (gas, renewable
and thermal) in Canada and the US. Although the company could deleverage over time, we
TP: $4.50
believe ATP is more likely to remain under pressure given investors concern about dividend
stability in light of managements warning of a potential covenant breach in 3Q14, which also
led to tighter credit facility terms and a downgrade by Moodys. In addition, we are growing
cautious about the North American IPP market. Future catalysts include renewal of PPAs,
investment of proceeds from recent sale of non-core assets, deleveraging, and dividend clarity.
Our 12-month target price of $4.50 is based on a DCF methodology.

3 September 2013 9
3 September 2013

Macquarie Research
Comps

Fig 6 Energy infrastructure comps


P/E EV/EBITDA Stock Returns
Total Net Debt/
Target Expected Price Market Current Annual 2013E DCF
TICKER Rating Price Return 08/30/13 Cap EV Yield 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E EBITDA Value P/DCF YTD 52-wk
Power
Algonquin Power AQN CN O $8.00 23.7% $6.74 $1,386 $2,448 5.0% nmf 24.1x 18.8x 15.6x 22.2x 12.6x 11.4x 10.3x 3.7x $7.95 0.85x (1.5%) 1.2%
Atlantic Power ATP CN N $4.50 16.7% $4.20 $504 $2,741 9.5% nmf nmf nmf nmf 15.3x 12.2x 11.2x 12.3x 7.8x $4.57 0.92x (62.9%) (69.8%)
Boralex BLX CN - - - $10.60 $400 $1,093 0.0% nmf nmf nmf nmf 11.8x 12.8x 9.0x 9.0x 6.6x NA NA 15.6% 30.5%
Brookfield Renewable Energy BEP-U CN - - - $27.25 $3,623 $15,502 5.5% nmf nmf nmf nmf 18.8x 12.5x 12.1x 11.9x 5.4x NA NA (7.2%) (7.5%)
Capstone CSE CN O $4.50 22.8% $3.91 $298 $1,511 7.7% 9.9x 7.3x 7.4x 8.1x 8.2x 8.8x 9.0x 8.8x 5.5x $4.55 0.86x (3.0%) (10.3%)
Capital Power CPX CN - - - $20.66 $1,466 $4,480 6.1% 16.0x 15.0x 15.8x 13.2x 11.9x 9.1x 9.4x 7.9x 3.2x NA NA (9.1%) (5.4%)
Innergex Renewable Energy INE CN - - - $8.62 $814 $2,259 6.7% nmf nmf nmf 39.6x 16.3x 15.4x 13.3x 14.9x 8.0x NA NA (16.7%) (21.1%)
Northland Power NPI CN O $19.00 40.0% $14.34 $1,866 $3,555 7.5% nmf 39.5x 35.5x 24.8x 19.2x 15.0x 12.7x 11.7x 5.4x $18.95 0.76x (23.2%) (22.4%)
TransAlta TA CN - - - $13.54 $3,606 $8,952 8.6% 27.1x 23.9x 19.7x 22.0x 9.2x 9.2x 8.7x 8.2x 4.2x NA NA (10.4%) (9.1%)
Average 25.8% $1,551 $4,727 6.3% 17.7x 22.0x 19.4x 20.6x 14.8x 12.0x 10.8x 10.6x 5.5x 0.85x (13.2%) (12.6%)
Median 23.3% $1,386 $2,741 6.7% 16.0x 23.9x 18.8x 18.8x 15.3x 12.5x 11.2x 10.3x 5.4x 0.85x (9.1%) (9.1%)

Pipelines
Enbridge ENB CN O $54.00 27.9% $43.19 $35,662 $70,807 2.9% 27.1x 23.8x 21.4x 18.4x 18.6x 17.4x 15.7x 14.8x 4.9x $53.89 0.80x 0.4% 11.3%
Inter Pipeline IPL CN O $27.00 15.6% $24.35 $6,841 $10,400 4.7% 24.0x 27.0x 23.9x 18.4x 17.3x 18.7x 16.1x 12.5x 5.9x $27.27 0.89x 3.6% 16.4%
Pembina Pipeline PPL CN O $39.00 24.5% $32.68 $10,139 $12,561 5.1% 35.4x 27.4x 26.7x 25.7x 20.1x 16.2x 15.2x 14.4x 1.7x $39.40 0.83x 14.8% 22.3%
TransCanada TRP CN - - - $45.91 $32,430 $59,104 4.0% 24.3x 20.6x 18.2x 17.2x 14.6x 12.5x 11.7x 11.5x 4.8x NA NA (2.4%) 3.4%
Veresen VSN CN N $13.50 20.7% $12.01 $2,401 $5,006 8.3% nmf nmf nmf 31.8x 12.1x 11.8x 11.6x 10.5x 6.0x $13.40 0.90x 1.5% (8.1%)
Average 22.2% $12,953 $31,576 5.0% 27.7x 24.7x 22.6x 22.3x 16.5x 15.3x 14.1x 12.8x 4.7x 0.86x 3.6% 9.1%
Median 22.6% $8,490 $12,561 4.7% 25.7x 25.4x 22.7x 18.4x 17.3x 16.2x 15.2x 12.5x 4.9x 0.86x 1.5% 11.3%

Utilities
Atco ACO/X CN - - - $43.31 $4,992 $13,113 1.7% 13.4x 12.8x 11.8x 11.4x 8.1x 9.6x 9.1x 8.3x 2.9x NA NA 7.3% 13.4%
Canadian Utilities CU CN - - - $34.17 $8,803 $15,382 2.8% 17.0x 15.5x 14.4x 13.7x 11.1x 10.6x 10.2x 9.9x 3.2x NA NA (5.0%) 0.5%
Emera EMA CN - - - $29.83 $3,935 $8,328 4.7% 17.7x 16.9x 15.9x 14.6x 12.4x 11.5x 11.0x 10.9x 4.6x NA NA (14.1%) (13.3%)
Fortis FTS CN - - - $30.35 $6,426 $14,807 4.1% 17.9x 17.6x 16.8x 16.0x 10.8x 10.9x 10.2x 9.5x 5.4x NA NA (11.3%) (6.6%)
Average - $6,039 $12,907 3.3% 16.5x 15.7x 14.7x 13.9x 10.6x 10.7x 10.1x 9.6x 4.0x NA (5.8%) (1.5%)
Median - $5,709 $13,960 3.5% 17.3x 16.2x 15.1x 14.2x 11.0x 10.8x 10.2x 9.7x 3.9x NA (8.2%) (3.0%)

Midstream
AltaGas ALA CN O $44.00 26.7% $35.93 $4,259 $7,724 4.3% 31.6x 26.0x 21.6x 20.1x 22.0x 15.9x 14.2x 13.0x 5.9x $43.68 0.82x 7.0% 15.8%
Gibson Energy GEI CN O $31.00 42.1% $22.59 $2,749 $3,357 4.9% 22.3x 18.4x 22.2x 18.1x 11.0x 8.6x 9.2x 8.1x 1.5x $31.06 0.73x (6.1%) 4.2%
Keyera KEY CN O $66.00 18.4% $57.63 $4,518 $5,368 3.9% 36.9x 30.2x 25.4x 20.5x 18.0x 14.8x 13.9x 12.5x 2.2x $66.01 0.87x 17.1% 28.1%
Average 29.1% $3,634 $5,483 4.3% 30.3x 24.9x 23.1x 19.6x 17.0x 13.1x 12.4x 11.2x 3.2x 0.81x 6.0% 16.0%
Median 26.7% $3,634 $5,368 4.3% 31.6x 26.0x 22.2x 20.1x 18.0x 14.8x 13.9x 12.5x 2.2x 0.82x 7.0% 15.8%

US Midstream
Kinder Morgan KMI US - - - $37.93 $52,428 $88,718 4.2% nmf 31.8x 23.3x 19.9x 22.0x 34.3x 29.8x 18.9x 13.6x NA NA 7.4% 6.0%
ONEOK OKE US - - - $51.44 $10,607 $20,123 3.0% 30.1x 31.0x 25.2x 22.2x 14.3x 12.8x 10.6x 9.1x 5.2x NA NA 20.3% 15.5%
Spectra Energy SE US - - - $33.11 $22,162 $37,723 3.7% 23.2x 21.9x 20.6x 18.4x 15.6x 12.9x 12.0x 11.5x 4.9x NA NA 20.9% 17.2%
Williams Companies WMB US - - - $36.24 $24,759 $38,417 4.0% 32.6x nmf 30.5x 24.9x 16.1x 17.6x 14.0x 12.1x 4.5x NA NA 10.7% 12.3%
Average - $27,489 $46,245 3.7% 28.6x 28.2x 24.9x 21.4x 17.0x 19.4x 16.6x 12.9x 7.0x NA 14.8% 12.8%
Median - $23,460 $38,070 3.9% 30.1x 31.0x 24.3x 21.0x 15.8x 15.2x 13.0x 11.8x 5.0x NA 15.5% 13.9%

Overall Average 25.4% 4.9% 23.9x 22.7x 20.8x 19.8x 15.1x 13.7x 12.5x 11.3x 5.1x 0.84x -1.9% 1.0%
Overall Median 23.7% 4.7% 24.0x 23.8x 21.0x 18.4x 15.3x 12.6x 11.6x 11.5x 4.9x 0.85x -1.5% 3.4%

Energy Infrastructure
Notes:
CSE (including ReD and Bristol Water @ 100%); ENB (minority int. @ market); VSN (proportionally consolidated debt)
US stock market data in USD
Ratings: O (Outperform), N (Neutral), U (Underperform)
Basic Market Cap, Fully Diluted EV

Source: Company reports, FactSet, Macquarie Research, September 2013


10
3 September 2013

Macquarie Research
Fig 7 North American midstream comps

P/E EV/EBITDA Stock Returns


Target Price Market Current Annual
TICKER Rating Price 08/30/13 Cap EV Yield 2013E 2014E 2015E 2013E 2014E 2015E YTD 52-wk
Pipelines - Canada
Enbridge ENB CN O $54.00 $43.19 $35,662 $70,807 2.9% 23.8x 21.4x 18.4x 17.4x 15.7x 14.8x 0.4% 11.3%
Inter Pipeline IPL CN O $27.00 $24.35 $6,841 $10,400 4.7% 27.0x 23.9x 18.4x 18.7x 16.1x 12.5x 3.6% 16.4%
Pembina Pipeline PPL CN O $39.00 $32.68 $10,139 $12,561 5.1% 27.4x 26.7x 25.7x 16.2x 15.2x 14.4x 14.8% 22.3%
TransCanada TRP CN - - $45.91 $32,430 $59,104 4.0% 20.6x 18.2x 17.2x 12.5x 11.7x 11.5x (2.4%) 3.4%
Veresen VSN CN N $13.50 $12.01 $2,401 $5,006 8.3% nmf nmf 31.8x 11.8x 11.6x 10.5x 1.5% (8.1%)
Average $17,495 $31,576 5.0% 24.7x 22.6x 22.3x 15.3x 14.1x 12.8x 3.6% 9.1%
Median $10,139 $12,561 4.7% 25.4x 22.7x 18.4x 16.2x 15.2x 12.5x 1.5% 11.3%

Pipelines - US MLPs
Atlas Pipeline Partners L.P. APL US - - $38.80 $3,014 $4,927 6.4% nmf 26.0x 22.7x 13.5x 10.9x 9.5x 22.9% 11.7%
Boardwalk Pipeline Partners L.P. BWP US - - $30.06 $7,311 $10,420 7.1% 23.4x 22.1x 20.7x 14.0x 13.4x 12.8x 20.7% 11.2%
Buckeye Partners L.P. BPL US - - $70.00 $7,428 $10,081 6.1% 20.9x 18.7x 16.6x 16.2x 14.4x 13.0x 54.2% 41.6%
El Paso Pipeline Partners L.P. EPB US - - $41.73 $9,275 $10,901 6.0% 20.5x 19.0x 18.9x 11.8x 11.2x 10.9x 12.9% 15.3%
Enbridge Energy Partners L.P. EEP US - - $29.82 $9,042 $16,862 7.3% 27.6x 18.8x 18.5x 12.3x 11.0x 10.7x 6.9% 1.2%
Energy Transfer Partners L.P. ETP US - - $51.27 $19,289 $39,581 7.0% 21.7x 17.4x 19.2x 12.0x 11.6x 10.5x 19.4% 20.0%
Enterprise Products Partners L.P. EPD US - - $59.42 $55,065 $71,672 4.6% 21.2x 20.1x 18.6x 15.6x 14.8x 13.9x 18.7% 11.3%
Holly Energy Partners L.P. HEP US - - $35.53 $2,084 $2,828 5.5% 32.6x 27.2x 24.5x 15.4x 14.0x 12.9x 8.0% 5.4%
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners L.P. KMP US - - $81.56 $35,127 $57,037 6.5% 30.2x 31.0x 28.3x 10.8x 9.7x 9.0x 2.2% (1.5%)
NuStar Energy L.P. NS US - - $41.71 $3,249 $5,773 10.5% nmf 22.8x 17.2x 13.2x 11.3x 10.4x (1.8%) (17.8%)
Plains All American Pipeline L.P. PAA US - - $50.56 $17,329 $25,292 4.6% 16.5x 17.4x 16.0x 11.5x 11.3x 10.7x 11.8% 16.9%
Regency Energy Partners L.P. RGP US - - $27.03 $5,673 $9,097 6.9% nmf nmf 37.5x 14.7x 12.5x 12.3x 24.7% 16.8%
Sunoco Logistics Partners L.P. SXL US - - $64.24 $6,921 $9,012 3.7% 16.9x 19.2x 16.7x 10.5x 10.8x 9.7x 29.2% 37.7%
Transmontaigne Partners L.P. TLP US - - $41.28 $666 $901 6.3% 20.1x 15.5x 15.0x 12.5x 11.2x 11.3x 8.7% 13.0%
Williams Partners L.P. WPZ US - - $49.33 $21,478 $27,868 7.0% 34.8x 23.5x 19.5x 13.8x 11.1x 9.7x 1.4% (4.4%)
Average $13,530 $20,150 6.4% 23.9x 21.3x 20.7x 13.2x 11.9x 11.1x 16.0% 11.9%
Median $7,428 $10,420 6.4% 21.4x 19.7x 18.9x 13.2x 11.3x 10.7x 12.9% 11.7%

Midstream - Canada
AltaGas ALA CN O $44.00 $35.93 $4,259 $7,724 4.3% 26.0x 21.6x 20.1x 15.9x 14.2x 13.0x 7.0% 15.8%
Gibson Energy GEI CN O $31.00 $22.59 $2,749 $3,357 4.9% 18.4x 22.2x 18.1x 8.6x 9.2x 8.1x (6.1%) 4.2%
Keyera KEY CN O $66.00 $57.63 $4,518 $5,368 3.9% 30.2x 25.4x 20.5x 14.8x 13.9x 12.5x 17.1% 28.1%
Average $3,842 $5,483 4.3% 24.9x 23.1x 19.6x 13.1x 12.4x 11.2x 6.0% 16.0%
Median $4,259 $5,368 4.3% 26.0x 22.2x 20.1x 14.8x 13.9x 12.5x 7.0% 15.8%

Midstream - US MLPs
Crestwood Midstream Partners L.P. CMLP US - - $25.94 $1,750 $2,343 7.9% nmf 32.6x 25.0x 14.9x 11.7x 9.4x 20.5% 5.4%
Crosstex Energy L.P. XTEX US - - $18.72 $1,660 $2,659 7.1% nmf nmf nmf 13.3x 10.0x 8.2x 28.7% 25.8%
DCP Midstream Partners L.P. DPM US - - $47.93 $4,180 $5,560 5.9% 21.2x 19.8x 15.8x 17.5x 14.1x 11.6x 14.8% 11.1%
Inergy L.P. NRGY US - - $13.74 $2,432 $2,023 3.8% nmf nmf nmf 12.8x 7.4x 7.0x 28.3% 33.3%
Magellan Midstream Partners L.P. MMP US - - $54.26 $12,300 $14,565 3.9% 21.9x 20.0x 18.2x 18.3x 16.7x 15.4x 25.6% 30.8%
MarkWest Energy Partners L.P. MWE US - - $66.79 $9,416 $13,719 5.0% nmf 28.2x 21.1x 19.3x 13.5x 11.5x 30.9% 25.8%
Martin Midstream Partners L.P. MMLP US - - $45.49 $1,211 $1,785 6.9% 25.0x 23.8x 18.4x 12.5x 11.4x 10.0x 46.5% 33.7%
Spectra Energy Partners L.P. SEP US - - $41.68 $4,535 $5,587 4.9% 27.1x 17.4x 17.2x 24.7x 6.9x 6.5x 33.5% 30.2%
Targa Resources Partners L.P. NGLS US - - $48.86 $5,183 $7,858 5.9% nmf 27.8x 20.8x 13.5x 10.8x 9.7x 30.7% 20.6%
Average $4,741 $6,233 5.7% 23.8x 24.2x 19.5x 16.3x 11.4x 9.9x 28.8% 24.1%
Median $4,180 $5,560 5.9% 23.5x 23.8x 18.4x 14.9x 11.4x 9.7x 28.7% 25.8%

Overall Average $10,769 $16,646 5.8% 24.1x 22.4x 20.6x 14.4x 12.2x 11.1x 16.7% 15.3%

Energy Infrastructure
Overall Median $6,257 $9,055 5.9% 23.4x 21.8x 18.7x 13.7x 11.6x 10.8x 15.9% 15.6%

Notes:
ENB (minority int. @ market); EEP (our estimated EPS and EBITDA); VSN (proportionally consolidated debt)
Ratings: O (Outperform), N (Neutral), U (Underperform)
US stock market data in USD

Source: Company reports, FactSet, Macquarie Research, September 2013


11
3 September 2013

Macquarie Research
Fig 8 North American power comps
P/E EV/EBITDA Stock Returns
Target Price Market Current Annual
TICKER Rating Price Analyst 08/30/13 Cap EV Yield 2013E 2014E 2015E 2013E 2014E 2015E YTD 52-wk
Power - Canada
Algonquin Power AQN CN O $8.00 RC $6.74 $1,386 $2,448 5.0% 24.1x 18.8x 15.6x 12.6x 11.4x 10.3x (1.5%) 1.2%
Atlantic Power ATP CN N $4.50 RC $4.20 $504 $2,741 9.5% nmf nmf nmf 12.2x 11.2x 12.3x (62.9%) (69.8%)
Boralex BLX CN - - RC $10.60 $400 $1,093 0.0% nmf nmf nmf 12.8x 9.0x 9.0x 15.6% 30.5%
Brookfield Renewable Energy BEP-U CN - - RC $27.25 $3,623 $15,502 5.5% nmf nmf nmf 12.5x 12.1x 11.9x (7.2%) (7.5%)
Capstone CSE CN O $4.50 RC $3.91 $298 $1,511 7.7% 7.3x 7.4x 8.1x 8.8x 9.0x 8.8x (3.0%) (10.3%)
Capital Power CPX CN - - RC $20.66 $1,466 $4,480 6.1% 15.0x 15.8x 13.2x 9.1x 9.4x 7.9x (9.1%) (5.4%)
Innergex Renewable Energy INE CN - - RC $8.62 $814 $2,259 6.7% nmf nmf 39.6x 15.4x 13.3x 14.9x (16.7%) (21.1%)
Northland Power NPI CN O $19.00 RC $14.34 $1,866 $3,555 7.5% 39.5x 35.5x 24.8x 15.0x 12.7x 11.7x (23.2%) (22.4%)
TransAlta TA CN - - RC $13.54 $3,606 $8,952 8.6% 23.9x 19.7x 22.0x 9.2x 8.7x 8.2x (10.4%) (9.1%)
Average $1,551 $4,727 6.3% 22.0x 19.4x 20.6x 12.0x 10.8x 10.6x (13.2%) (12.6%)
Median $1,386 $2,741 6.7% 23.9x 18.8x 18.8x 12.5x 11.2x 10.3x (9.1%) (9.1%)

Power - US
Calpine CPN US N $22.00 AS $19.33 $8,656 $18,760 0.0% nmf 33.5x 23.8x 10.3x 9.6x 9.1x 17.3% 33.2%
Dynegy DYN US U $18.00 AS $19.43 $1,982 $3,164 0.0% 16.1x nmf nmf 14.6x 14.0x 14.4x 15.3% (39.8%)
NRG Energy NRG US O $33.00 AS $26.25 $8,584 $20,551 1.8% nmf 19.9x 30.9x 7.9x 7.0x 7.3x 15.4% 70.0%
Average $6,407 $14,158 0.6% 16.1x 26.7x 27.4x 10.9x 10.2x 10.2x 16.0% 21.1%
Median $8,584 $18,760 0.0% 16.1x 26.7x 27.4x 10.3x 9.6x 9.1x 15.4% 33.2%

Utilities - Canada
Atco ACO/X CN - - - $43.31 $4,992 $13,113 1.7% 12.8x 11.8x 11.4x 9.6x 9.1x 8.3x 7.3% 13.4%
Canadian Utilities CU CN - - - $34.17 $8,803 $15,382 2.8% 15.5x 14.4x 13.7x 10.6x 10.2x 9.9x (5.0%) 0.5%
Emera EMA CN - - - $29.83 $3,935 $8,328 4.7% 16.9x 15.9x 14.6x 11.5x 11.0x 10.9x (14.1%) (13.3%)
Fortis FTS CN - - - $30.35 $6,426 $14,807 4.1% 17.6x 16.8x 16.0x 10.9x 10.2x 9.5x (11.3%) (6.6%)
Average $6,039 $12,907 3.3% 15.7x 14.7x 13.9x 10.7x 10.1x 9.6x (5.8%) (1.5%)
Median $5,709 $13,960 3.5% 16.2x 15.1x 14.2x 10.8x 10.2x 9.7x (8.2%) (3.0%)

Utilities - US
AES AES US O $14.50 AS $12.71 $9,469 $29,903 1.3% 10.0x 9.4x 8.9x 6.0x 5.6x 5.5x 11.3% (2.2%)
Alliant Energy LNT US O $53.00 AW $49.61 $5,501 $8,917 3.8% 15.7x 15.1x 14.4x 10.2x 9.8x 10.1x 12.3% 10.6%
American Electric Power AEP US N $47.50 AS $42.80 $20,801 $39,638 4.6% 13.7x 13.0x 12.6x 9.1x 9.2x 9.4x 4.5% 13.2%
CenterPoint Energy CNP US O $27.00 AW $22.93 $9,851 $18,598 3.6% 19.1x 17.4x 16.0x 8.7x 9.7x 9.6x 21.0% 14.8%
CMS Energy CMS US O $30.00 AW $26.53 $7,221 $14,368 3.8% 16.1x 15.1x 14.4x 8.9x 8.8x 9.0x 12.5% 18.4%
Dominion Resources D US O $63.00 AS $58.35 $33,800 $53,362 3.9% 17.7x 16.4x 15.5x 11.6x 11.0x 10.5x 8.7% 5.5%
DTE Energy DTE US O $71.00 AW $66.87 $11,795 $19,059 3.9% 16.4x 15.6x 14.7x 8.5x 8.5x 8.5x 10.6% 14.1%
Duke Energy DUK US O $74.00 AS $65.60 $46,314 $86,449 4.7% 15.4x 14.6x 14.0x 10.8x 10.8x 10.3x 6.0% (1.6%)
Edison International EIX US O $52.00 AS $45.89 $15,144 $26,931 2.9% 13.6x 13.4x 13.2x 8.1x 7.5x 7.0x 4.6% 4.1%
Entergy ETR US O $74.00 AS $63.23 $11,238 $25,830 5.3% 12.5x 12.0x 11.8x 8.6x 8.3x 8.4x 10.2% 5.4%
Exelon EXC US N $33.00 AS $30.49 $26,045 $45,282 4.1% 12.5x 14.0x 13.4x 6.1x 6.7x 6.7x 5.4% (14.3%)
FirstEnergy FE US O $44.00 AS $37.47 $15,662 $35,426 5.9% 12.4x 12.2x 10.6x 7.4x 7.1x 6.4x (11.3%) (22.4%)
Hawaiian Electric Industries HE US N $26.00 AW $25.01 $2,493 $3,956 5.0% 15.4x 14.7x 14.3x 9.0x 9.3x 10.0x (0.9%) (10.7%)
NextEra Energy NEE US O $86.00 AS $80.36 $34,089 $60,728 3.3% 16.4x 15.5x 14.6x 10.1x 9.8x 9.4x 15.4% 19.1%
Northeast Utilities NU US N $43.00 AW $40.97 $12,945 $22,084 3.6% 16.1x 15.3x 14.5x 15.6x 16.0x 16.2x 5.6% 8.6%
PG&E Corp. PCG US N $43.00 AS $41.36 $18,707 $32,525 4.4% 15.6x 14.0x 13.7x 9.5x 9.4x 9.4x 12.8% 2.0%
Portland General Electric POR US N $31.00 AW $28.81 $2,218 $3,824 3.8% 22.1x 13.4x 13.1x 7.8x 8.2x 7.9x 10.5% 15.7%
PPL PPL US O $33.00 AS $30.70 $20,416 $37,824 4.8% 13.2x 14.3x 14.2x 10.4x 11.1x 11.2x 3.8% 8.1%
Public Service Enterprise PEG US N $34.00 AS $32.42 $16,437 $24,478 4.4% 13.2x 13.6x 14.5x 7.3x 7.2x 7.5x 7.5% 5.1%
SCANA SCG US N $49.00 AW $48.12 $6,742 $12,301 4.2% 14.5x 14.2x 13.6x 11.7x 12.5x 13.3x 7.0% 4.7%
Southern SO US N $45.00 AS $41.62 $36,251 $61,015 4.9% 15.3x 14.6x 14.1x 9.7x 10.0x 9.4x 2.8% (5.0%)
TECO Energy TE US N $17.00 AW $16.53 $3,562 $6,412 5.3% 17.7x 16.1x 14.5x 8.6x 7.8x 7.6x 1.4% (4.2%)
UIL Holdings UIL US N $40.00 AW $37.76 $1,933 $3,663 4.6% 18.0x 15.7x 14.9x 9.0x 10.2x 10.7x 4.9% 6.8%
Xcel Energy XEL US N $31.00 AS $27.92 $13,684 $24,833 4.0% 14.7x 13.9x 13.4x 9.1x 9.2x 9.1x 7.3% 3.2%
Average $15,930 $29,059 4.2% 15.3x 14.3x 13.7x 9.2x 9.3x 9.3x 7.3% 4.1%
Median $13,314 $25,331 4.1% 15.4x 14.4x 14.1x 9.0x 9.2x 9.4x 7.2% 5.2%

Overall Average $10,991 $20,851 4.3% 16.4x 15.8x 15.6x 10.1x 9.8x 9.7x 2.0% 1.1%

Energy Infrastructure
Overall Median $7,903 $15,442 4.3% 15.5x 14.7x 14.3x 9.6x 9.5x 9.4x 5.5% 2.6%

Notes:
CSE (including ReD and Bristol Water @ 100%)
Analyst: AS (Angie Storozynski), AW (Andrew Weisel), RC (Rob Catellier)
Ratings: O (Outperform), N (Neutral), U (Underperform)
US stock market data in USD

Source: Company reports, FactSet, Macquarie Research, September 2013


12
Macquarie Research Energy Infrastructure
Important disclosures:
Recommendation definitions Volatility index definition* Financial definitions
Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand This is calculated from the volatility of historical price All "Adjusted" data items have had the following
Outperform return >3% in excess of benchmark return movements. adjustments made:
Neutral return within 3% of benchmark return Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for
Underperform return >3% below benchmark return Very highhighest risk Stock should be expected catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS
to move up or down 60100% in a year investors impairments & IFRS interest expense
Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal should be aware this stock is highly speculative. Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property
GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend yield revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends &
Macquarie Asia/Europe High stock should be expected to move up or minority interests
Outperform expected return >+10% down at least 4060% in a year investors should
Neutral expected return from -10% to +10% be aware this stock could be speculative. EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa*
Underperform expected return <-10% ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets
Medium stock should be expected to move up or ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average
Macquarie First South - South Africa down at least 3040% in a year. total assets
Outperform expected return >+10% ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds
Neutral expected return from -10% to +10% Lowmedium stock should be expected to move Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation
Underperform expected return <-10% up or down at least 2530% in a year. *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number
Macquarie - Canada of shares
Outperform return >5% in excess of benchmark return Low stock should be expected to move up or
Neutral return within 5% of benchmark return down at least 1525% in a year. All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are
Underperform return >5% below benchmark return * Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting
only Standards).
Macquarie - USA
Outperform (Buy) return >5% in excess of Russell 3000 Recommendations 12 months
index return Note: Quant recommendations may differ from
Neutral (Hold) return within 5% of Russell 3000 index Fundamental Analyst recommendations
return
Underperform (Sell) return >5% below Russell 3000
index return

Recommendation proportions For quarter ending 30 June 2013


AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR
Outperform 49.80% 57.68% 48.05% 41.13% 61.75% 47.10% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 8.12% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)
Neutral 39.85% 24.45% 42.86% 54.70% 34.42% 30.89% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 6.60% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)
Underperform 10.35% 17.87% 9.09% 4.17% 3.83% 22.01% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 0.00% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)

Company Specific Disclosures:


Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd or one of its affiliates has received compensation for investment advisory services from AltaGas Ltd. in the past 12
months. Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd or one of its affiliates managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for AltaGas Ltd. in the past 12
months. Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd. or one of its affiliates managed or co-managed a public offering of securities of Pembina Pipeline
Corporation in the past 12 months. Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd. or one of its affiliates has received compensation for investment advisory
services from Pembina Pipeline Corporation in the past 12 months. Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd or one of its affiliates received compensation for
investment advisory service from Keyera in the past 24 months. Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Limited or one of its affiliates managed or co-managed
an offering of securities of Keyera in the past 24 months. Macquarie Group Limited or one of its affiliates has received compensation for investment advisory
services from Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. in the past 24 months. Macquarie Group Limited or one of its affiliates managed or co-managed a public
offering of securities of Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. in the past 24 months. Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd or one of its affiliates managed or
co-managed a public offering of securities of Gibson Energy in the past 12 months. Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd or one of its affiliates has
received compensation for investment advisory services from Gibson Energy in the past 12 months. Macquarie Capital Markets North America Ltd. or one of
its affiliates has received compensation for investment advisory services from Northland Power Inc. in the past 24 months. Macquarie Capital Markets North
America Ltd. or one of its affiliates managed or co-managed a public offering of securities of Northland Power Inc. in the past 24 months. Macquarie Capital
Markets Canada Ltd. or one of its affiliates managed or co-managed a public offering of securities of Capstone Infrastructure Corp in the past 24 months.
Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd. or one of its affiliates has received compensation for investment advisory services from Capstone Infrastructure
Corp in the past 12 months. Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd. or one of its affiliates received compensation for products and services other than
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3 September 2013 15
Research
Heads of Equity Research Financials contd TMET contd
John OConnell (Global - Head) (612) 8232 7544 Online Brokers, Exchanges & Asset Managers Internet
Greg MacDonald (Canada) (1 416) 628 3934 Sameer Murukutla (New York) (1 212) 231 0689 Ben Schachter (Head of TMET) (1 212) 231 0644
Andrew Root (US) (1 212) 231 2336 Sumit Malhotra (Toronto) (1 416) 848 3687 Tom White (New York) (1 212) 231 0643

Consumer Discretionary & Healthcare Mortgage & Consumer Finance Semiconductors


Sean Dargan (New York) (1 212) 231 0663 Shawn Webster (San Francisco) (1 415) 762 5033
Life Sciences & Technology Bryan Brown (Toronto) (1 416) 848 3521 Deepon Nag (New York) (1 212) 231 8014
Jon Groberg (Head of US Consumer Discretionary Property & Casualty Insurance Software & IT Hardware
& Healthcare) (1 212) 231 2612 Amit Kumar (New York) (1 212) 231 8013 Brad Zelnick (New York) (1 212) 231 2618
Healthcare Services Bryan Brown (Toronto) (1 416) 848 3521
Dane Leone (New York) (1 212) 231 6369 Media & Entertainment
Industrials Tim Nollen (New York) (1 212) 231 0635
Gaming & Leisure
Chad Beynon (New York) (1 212) 231 2634 Chemicals Utilities & Alternative Energy
Cooley May (New York) (1 212) 231 2586
Department Stores & Softlines Angie Storozynski (Head of US Utilities &
Construction and Engineering/Machinery Alternative Energy) (1 212) 231 2569
Liz Dunn (New York) (1 212) 231 8066 Sameer Rathod (San Francisco) (1 415) 762 5034 Andrew Weisel (New York) (1 212) 231 1159
Electrical Equipment & Building Products Rob Catellier (Toronto) (1 416) 848 3512
Energy Mike Wood (New York) (1 212) 231 6590
Commodities & Precious Metals
US Exploration & Production Transports & Logistics
Joe Magner (Denver) (1 303) 952 2751 Kelly Dougherty (New York) (1 212) 231 2493 Colin Hamilton (Global) (44 20) 3037 4061
Paul Grigel (Denver) (1 303) 952 2754 Jim Lennon (London) (44 20) 3037 4271
Materials Kona Haque (London) (44 20) 3037 4334
US Refining
Chi Chow (Denver) (1 303) 952 2757 Paper & Packaging Oil & Gas
Al Kabili (New York) (1 212) 231 0683
US Oilfield Services & Drilling Vikas Dwivedi (Houston) (1 713) 275 6352
Nigel Browne (Houston) (1 713) 275 6838 Steel & Metals
Aldo Mazzaferro (New York) (1 212) 231 0693 Economics and Strategy
US Integrated
Jason Gammel (London) (44 20) 3037 4085 Global Metals & Mining Dane Leone (New York) (1 212) 231 6369
Daniel Greenspan (Toronto) (1 416) 848 3541 David Doyle (Toronto) (1 416) 848 3663
US Natural Gas Vehicle Industry Pierre Vaillancourt (Toronto) (1 416) 848 3647
Matthew Blair (Denver) (1 303) 952 2759 Michael Siperco (Toronto) (1 416) 848 3520 Quantitative Analysis
Canadian Oil Sands/Heavy Oil Producers Michael Gray (Vancouver) (1 604) 639 6372 Gavin Smith (New York) (1 212) 231 0588
Chris Feltin (Calgary) (1 403) 539 8544 Real Estate Data Services
Canadian Independents REITs
Chris Feltin (Calgary) (1 403) 539 8544 Seasha Merino (New York) (1 212) 231 8018
Robert Stevenson (Head of US REITs) (1 212) 231 8068
Canadian Integrateds Michael Smith (Toronto) (1 416) 848 3696
Chris Feltin (Calgary) (1 403) 539 8544 Find our research at
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Kevin Smithen (New York) (1 212) 231 0695 Reuters: www.knowledge.reuters.com
David Popowich (Calgary) (1 403) 539 8529
Greg MacDonald (Toronto) (1 416) 628 3934 Bloomberg: MAC GO
Ray Kwan (Calgary) (1 403) 539 4355
Factset: http://www.factset.com/home.aspx
Business & Computer Services
Financials Kevin McVeigh (New York) (1 212) 231 6191 CapitalIQ www.capitaliq.com
Contact Gareth Warfield for access (612) 8232 3207
Banks/Trust Banks Cable, Satellite & Entertainment
David Konrad (Head of Banks) (1 212) 231 0525 Amy Yong (New York) (1 212) 231 2624 Email addresses
Thomas Alonso (New York) (1 212) 231 8047 FirstName.Surname@macquarie.com
John Moran (New York) (1 212) 231 0662
eg. john.oconnell@macquarie.com
Sumit Malhotra (Toronto) (1 416) 848 3687
Life Insurance
Sean Dargan (New York) (1 212) 231 0663
Sumit Malhotra (Toronto) (1 416) 848 3687

Equities Sales Trading


Head of Global Cash Equities US Sales US Sales Trading
Stevan Vrcelj (Sydney) (612) 8232 5999 Austin Graham (New York) (1 212) 231 2494 Austin Graham (New York) (1 212) 231 2494
Peter Doerr (Chicago) (1 312) 660 9052
Head of US Equities Ross Peet (San Francisco) (1 415) 762 5069 Canada Trading
Ken Savio (New York) (1 212) 231 1184 Perry Catellier (Toronto) (1 416) 848 3619
Canada Sales
Head of Canadian Equities Roy McDowall (Montreal) (1 514) 925 2864 International Sales Trading
Alex Rothwell (Toronto) (1 416) 848 3677 Chris Reale (New York) (1 212) 231 2555
US Quantitative Specialist Sales
Victor Morange (New York) (1 212) 231 2538

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