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Energy Infrastructure
Ranking of covered stocks
C o m pa ny
P ric e
T ic k e r 0 8 / 3 0 / 13 T a rge t R a t ing
Week in review: Aug 26 Sept 2
A ltaGas A LA $ 35.93 $ 44.00 Outperfo rm
Inter P ipeline IP L $ 24.35 $ 27.00 Outperfo rm
Sector Headlines
Enbridge ENB $ 43.19 $ 54.00 Outperfo rm
P embina PPL $ 32.68 $ 39.00 Outperfo rm
TransAlta (TA CN, not rated) re-contracted its Ottawa gas power plant for another
Keyera KEY $ 57.63 $ 66.00 Outperfo rm 20 years with a new power supply term with the Ontario Power Authority. LINK
A lgo nquin A QN $ 6.74 $ 8.00 Outperfo rm
Gibso n GEI $ 22.59 $ 31.00 Outperfo rm Over 150 investors and corporates joined our August 27 conference call on which
No rthland NP I $ 14.34 $ 19.00 Outperfo rm we discussed the recent dynamics around the AECO gas price. The key takeaway
Capsto ne CSE $ 3.91 $ 4.50 Outperfo rm
is that we expect the cash market for AECO pricing to continue to remain wide,
Veresen VSN $ 12.01 $ 13.50 Neutral
A tlantic A TP $ 4.20 $ 4.50 Neutral which modestly benefits Pembina (PPL, Outperform, TP: $39) and Inter Pipeline
(IPL, Outperform, TP: $27), given their frac spread exposure.
Energy Infrastructure Returns (YTD)
Midstream: 7.6% Power: (15.1%) Utilities: (3.8%) Capital Power (CPX CN, not rated) announced the sale of its New England power
25%
20%19%
10%8% 7% 7%
plants to Emera (EMA CN, not rated). Shares of both Emera and Algonquin
3%2% 1% 1%
5% Power (AQN, Outperform, TP: $8.00) reacted negatively due to concerns that
(0%)
(15%) (3%)
(4%)
(5%)
(6%)
(9%)
(12%) Emera may reduce its strategic interest in AQN to fund the deal (Fig 2). On the
(20%)
(35%)
contrary, we believe Emera could likely sell other assets or issue equity. We
(55%)
recommend investors should take advantage of AQNs weakness, given its
(75%) (61%)
diversification and relatively better growth prospects within the power & utilities
IPL
EMA
CU
NPI
KEY
TRP
ACO/X
GEI
ENB
AQN
CSE
CPX
S&P/TSX
PPL
ALA
FTS
TA
ATP
VSN
sector. LINK
20%
18%
21%
13%
19%
10%
PPL signed a contract with Questerre Energy (QEC CN, not rated) for processing
5% 7% 1%6%
20MMcf/d of gas and NGLs. This has no impact on our valuation. LINK
(10%)
(6%)
(9%) (22%)
(40%) (24%) Weekly Performance
Utilities
Health Care
Industrials
Cons. Stap.
Cons. Discr.
Energy
Info Tech
Financials
Telco
Materials
Midstream
Coverage Universe
YTD Price Rtn 12mo Price Rtn Dividend Energy Infrastructure
Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, Macquarie Research, September Power
2013 S&P/TSX
Utilities
(1.5%) (1.0%) (0.5%) 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0%
Inside
Coverage Universe includes ALA, AQN, ATP, CSE, ENB, GEI, IPL-U, KEY, NPI, PPL, VSN
Energy Infrastructure includes ACO/X, ALA, AQN, ATP, CPX,CSE, CU, EMA, ENB, FTS, GEI, IPL, KEY, NPI, PPL, TA, TRP, VSN
Item(s) of the Week .................................. 2 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, September 2013
Key events ................................................ 4
Top research ............................................. 5
Valuation and DCF assumptions .............. 6 This Weeks Watchlist
Investment thesis ...................................... 7
Comps .................................................... 10 Shareholders vote on Capstone Infrastructures (CSE, Outperform, TP$4.50)
acquisition of Renewable Energy Developers (RDZ CN, not rated). LINK
Analyst(s)
Rob Catellier, CFA NEB hearings begin for TransCanadas (TRP CN, not rated) mainline tariffs.
+1 416 848 3512 rob.catellier@macquarie.com
Konark Gupta Investment Thesis
+1 416 848 3539 konark.gupta@macquarie.com
We rank Midstream over Power over Utilities. Midstream is outperforming on
3 September 2013 stronger growth prospects, which is translating into dividend growth. Within
Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd. Midstream, IPL is our favourite in the near term for its corporate conversion.
Please refer to the important disclosures and analyst certification on inside back cover of this document, or on our
website www.macquarie.com/disclosures.
Macquarie Research Energy Infrastructure
3 September 2013 2
Macquarie Research Energy Infrastructure
Fig 2 Total return comparison for Aug 27-29 (impact of Capital Powers announcement)
CPX, 4.0%
GEI, 3.1%
VSN, 2.4%
IPL, 2.3%
KEY, 2.1%
ATP, 1.8%
ALA, 1.4%
TRP, 1.4%
ENB, 1.3%
S&P/TSX, 0.9%
CU, 0.7% Midstream Average: 1.8%
PPL, 0.6%
FTS, 0.1% Power Average: 0.5%
ACO.X, 0.1%
NPI, -0.1% Utilities Average: -0.1%
CSE, -0.5%
TA, -0.7%
AQN, -1.3%
EMA, -1.4%
-2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, September 2013
3 September 2013 3
Macquarie Research Energy Infrastructure
Key events
2015
November 30 Expiry of vast majority of Alliance Pipelines long-term transportation agreements
2013
December 31 Joint Review Panel report on Enbridges proposed Northern Gateway project
November 13 AltaGas will host investor day in Toronto, Ontario
October 8 NEB hearings begin for Enbridges proposed Line 9B reversal project
October 1 NEB hearings begin for Enbridges proposed Edmonton-Hardisty project
October 1 Enbridge will host investor day in Toronto, Ontario
September 18 Northland Power will host investor day in North Battleford, Saskatchewan
September 10 AltaGas hosts a site tour at its Forrest Kerr project in BC
September 4 Capstone Infrastructure and ReD special shareholder meeting for ReD acquisition
September 3 NEB hearings begin for TransCanadas proposed Mainline tariff amendments
September 1 Effective date for Inter Pipelines corporate conversion
August 22 Inter Pipeline unitholders and court approved the proposed corporate conversion
August 16 Ontario Power Authority made changes to the Feed-in Tariff (FIT) Program
August 15 Precedent agreement signing period began for Alliance Pipelines post-2015 capacity
July 1 Effective date for TransCanadas revised Mainline tolls set by NEB on March 27, 2013
June 24 NEB hearings ended for Enbridges proposed Northern Gateway project
March 27 NEB fixed multi-year tolls for TransCanadas Mainline effective July 1, 2013
February 4 NEB granted LNG export license to LNG Canada Developments Kitimat terminal
3 September 2013 4
Macquarie Research Energy Infrastructure
Top research
Company reports
Inter Pipeline Dawn of a new era | Full report (LINK)
Algonquin Power Power benefits from diversification | Full report (LINK)
Keyera The plot thickens | Full report (LINK)
Capstone Infrastructure Cardinal still in the wings | Full report (LINK)
Pembina Pipeline The Holy Trinity | Full report (LINK)
Atlantic Power Bumpy ride ahead | Full report (LINK)
Inter Pipeline New oil sands volumes secured | Full report (LINK)
Northland Power Growth questions loom | Full report (LINK)
Veresen Any further ahead? | Full report (LINK)
Keyera Dividend increase justified by operations and outlook | Full report (LINK)
Gibson Energy Capex outlook a sign of the times | Full report (LINK)
Atlantic Power Restricted ability to grow | Full report (LINK)
Gibson Energy Step in the right direction | Full report (LINK)
Northland Power Fork in the road | Full report (LINK)
AltaGas More good news | Full report (LINK)
Enbridge Earnings on track | Full report (LINK)
Pembina Pipeline The buck doesn't stop here | Full report (LINK)
Keyera Strategic value continues to surface | Full report (LINK)
Enbridge Oil sands is still a growth story | Full report (LINK)
Inter Pipeline New agreement illustrates potential | Full report (LINK)
Capstone Infrastructure ReD acquisition requires patience | Full report (LINK)
Pembina Pipeline Progress on the oil sands front | Full report (LINK)
Keyera Blocking and tackling | Full report (LINK)
Enbridge Expanding the tool box | Full report (LINK)
AltaGas California bound | Full report (LINK)
Inter Pipeline Transportation agreements for backbone in place | Full report (LINK)
Keyera Coiled spring | Full report (LINK)
Initiation reports
Enbridge Making a diff-erence | Full report (LINK)
3 September 2013 5
Macquarie Research Energy Infrastructure
3 September 2013 6
Macquarie Research Energy Infrastructure
Investment thesis
AltaGas ALA Accelerated dividend growth and low near-term earnings risk
Outperform AltaGas is a diversified energy infrastructure company with assets in midstream, power
generation and utility businesses in Canada and the US. We believe ALA will be one of the
TP: $44.00
fastest free cash flow growers of the peer group from commercially secured projects. We expect
this to translate into accelerated dividend growth even as it balances dividends with growth
opportunities. Future catalysts include capital deployment announcements, Forrest Kerr (mid-
2014), McLymont Creek and Volcano Creek (mid-2015), a potentially material PNG pipeline
expansion, CNG/LNG/LPG export development, and potentially a Blythe expansion. Our 12-
month target price of $44.00 is based on a DCF methodology.
Inter Pipeline IPL Corporate conversion lowers funding risk and supports growth
Outperform Inter Pipeline is a diversified energy infrastructure company with assets in the pipeline, storage
and NGL extraction businesses and operations in Western Canada, Denmark, Germany,
TP: $27.00
Ireland and the UK. We believe IPL is a great way to play oil sands growth given its expansion
opportunities and stable cash flow profile, along with reduced dilution risk from corporate
conversion. Future catalysts include effects of corporate conversion (September 1), capital
deployment announcements, Cold Lake / Polaris expansion (2014-17), and potentially more
transportation agreement announcements. Our 12-month target price of $27.00 is based on a
DCF methodology.
Outperform Enbridge is a bellwether diversified energy infrastructure company with assets in the liquids
transportation, storage, gas and power generation businesses and operations in Canada and
TP: $54.00
the US. We believe ENB is the best way to play differentials form an infrastructure perspective,
given its highly visible earnings and dividend growth. Future catalysts include capital
deployment announcements, commissioning of $28bn in commercially secured growth projects
(2012-16), Trunkline conversion (not in our valuation), and potentially gas-fired power and
international expansion. Our 12-month target price of $54.00 is based on a DCF methodology.
3 September 2013 7
Macquarie Research Energy Infrastructure
Keyera KEY Strong dividend growth & outlook and diminishing marketing risk
Outperform Keyera is one of the largest midstream companies in Canada with assets in the gas gathering
and processing and NGL midstream businesses and operations in Alberta and BC. We believe
TP: $66.00
KEY is well-positioned to benefit from growth in liquids-rich gas production in the Deep Basin
and oil sands activity, along with Alberta Envirofuels expanding market reach and weak butane
prices in the near term. Future catalysts include capital deployment announcements such as the
Simonette expansion and deep cut, fractionation expansion, rail expansion, and potential NGL
Pipeline Project (late 2015, not in our valuation). Our 12-month target price of $66.00 is based
on a DCF methodology.
Algonquin AQN Tough IPP market, but attractive growth & diversification
Power
Outperform Algonquin owns and operates a diversified portfolio of non-regulated power generation assets
(renewable and thermal) across North America and regulated utilities (water, electricity and gas)
TP: $8.00
in the US. While we are growing cautious about the North American IPP market, AQN is our top
power pick for its visible growth and exposure to contracted power and utilities. Future catalysts
include utility rate increases, commissioning of power projects (2013-16), and potentially
acquisitions. Our 12-month target price of $8.00 is based on a DCF methodology.
3 September 2013 8
Macquarie Research Energy Infrastructure
Capstone CSE Cardinal still in the wings, while IPP market challenging
Infrastructure
Outperform Capstone owns and operates a diversified portfolio of power generation assets (gas and
renewable) in Canada and also has interests in utilities (heat and water) in Europe. We remain
TP: $4.50
in a holding pattern owing to the Cardinal outcome uncertainty, while we are also growing
cautious about the North American IPP market. Future catalysts include Cardinal recontracting
and the ReD acquisition (closing in 3Q13, and commissioning of development projects in 2014-
15). Our 12-month target price of $4.50 is based on a DCF methodology.
Veresen VSN High yield and Jordan Cove balancing Alliance recontracting and payout ratio risks
Neutral Veresen is a diversified energy infrastructure company with assets in the pipeline, midstream
and power generation businesses and operations in Canada and the US. Investors must weigh
TP: $13.50
the attractive current dividend yield and increasingly higher possibility of the Jordan Cove
project (not in our valuation) against VSNs high payout ratio and Alliance Pipeline recontracting
risk. Future catalysts include capital deployment announcements, Alliance post-2015 capacity
agreements (through to 2015), and Jordan Cove approvals (mainly non-FTA export license).
Our 12-month target price of $13.50 is based on a DCF methodology.
Neutral Atlantic owns and operates a diversified portfolio of power generation assets (gas, renewable
and thermal) in Canada and the US. Although the company could deleverage over time, we
TP: $4.50
believe ATP is more likely to remain under pressure given investors concern about dividend
stability in light of managements warning of a potential covenant breach in 3Q14, which also
led to tighter credit facility terms and a downgrade by Moodys. In addition, we are growing
cautious about the North American IPP market. Future catalysts include renewal of PPAs,
investment of proceeds from recent sale of non-core assets, deleveraging, and dividend clarity.
Our 12-month target price of $4.50 is based on a DCF methodology.
3 September 2013 9
3 September 2013
Macquarie Research
Comps
Pipelines
Enbridge ENB CN O $54.00 27.9% $43.19 $35,662 $70,807 2.9% 27.1x 23.8x 21.4x 18.4x 18.6x 17.4x 15.7x 14.8x 4.9x $53.89 0.80x 0.4% 11.3%
Inter Pipeline IPL CN O $27.00 15.6% $24.35 $6,841 $10,400 4.7% 24.0x 27.0x 23.9x 18.4x 17.3x 18.7x 16.1x 12.5x 5.9x $27.27 0.89x 3.6% 16.4%
Pembina Pipeline PPL CN O $39.00 24.5% $32.68 $10,139 $12,561 5.1% 35.4x 27.4x 26.7x 25.7x 20.1x 16.2x 15.2x 14.4x 1.7x $39.40 0.83x 14.8% 22.3%
TransCanada TRP CN - - - $45.91 $32,430 $59,104 4.0% 24.3x 20.6x 18.2x 17.2x 14.6x 12.5x 11.7x 11.5x 4.8x NA NA (2.4%) 3.4%
Veresen VSN CN N $13.50 20.7% $12.01 $2,401 $5,006 8.3% nmf nmf nmf 31.8x 12.1x 11.8x 11.6x 10.5x 6.0x $13.40 0.90x 1.5% (8.1%)
Average 22.2% $12,953 $31,576 5.0% 27.7x 24.7x 22.6x 22.3x 16.5x 15.3x 14.1x 12.8x 4.7x 0.86x 3.6% 9.1%
Median 22.6% $8,490 $12,561 4.7% 25.7x 25.4x 22.7x 18.4x 17.3x 16.2x 15.2x 12.5x 4.9x 0.86x 1.5% 11.3%
Utilities
Atco ACO/X CN - - - $43.31 $4,992 $13,113 1.7% 13.4x 12.8x 11.8x 11.4x 8.1x 9.6x 9.1x 8.3x 2.9x NA NA 7.3% 13.4%
Canadian Utilities CU CN - - - $34.17 $8,803 $15,382 2.8% 17.0x 15.5x 14.4x 13.7x 11.1x 10.6x 10.2x 9.9x 3.2x NA NA (5.0%) 0.5%
Emera EMA CN - - - $29.83 $3,935 $8,328 4.7% 17.7x 16.9x 15.9x 14.6x 12.4x 11.5x 11.0x 10.9x 4.6x NA NA (14.1%) (13.3%)
Fortis FTS CN - - - $30.35 $6,426 $14,807 4.1% 17.9x 17.6x 16.8x 16.0x 10.8x 10.9x 10.2x 9.5x 5.4x NA NA (11.3%) (6.6%)
Average - $6,039 $12,907 3.3% 16.5x 15.7x 14.7x 13.9x 10.6x 10.7x 10.1x 9.6x 4.0x NA (5.8%) (1.5%)
Median - $5,709 $13,960 3.5% 17.3x 16.2x 15.1x 14.2x 11.0x 10.8x 10.2x 9.7x 3.9x NA (8.2%) (3.0%)
Midstream
AltaGas ALA CN O $44.00 26.7% $35.93 $4,259 $7,724 4.3% 31.6x 26.0x 21.6x 20.1x 22.0x 15.9x 14.2x 13.0x 5.9x $43.68 0.82x 7.0% 15.8%
Gibson Energy GEI CN O $31.00 42.1% $22.59 $2,749 $3,357 4.9% 22.3x 18.4x 22.2x 18.1x 11.0x 8.6x 9.2x 8.1x 1.5x $31.06 0.73x (6.1%) 4.2%
Keyera KEY CN O $66.00 18.4% $57.63 $4,518 $5,368 3.9% 36.9x 30.2x 25.4x 20.5x 18.0x 14.8x 13.9x 12.5x 2.2x $66.01 0.87x 17.1% 28.1%
Average 29.1% $3,634 $5,483 4.3% 30.3x 24.9x 23.1x 19.6x 17.0x 13.1x 12.4x 11.2x 3.2x 0.81x 6.0% 16.0%
Median 26.7% $3,634 $5,368 4.3% 31.6x 26.0x 22.2x 20.1x 18.0x 14.8x 13.9x 12.5x 2.2x 0.82x 7.0% 15.8%
US Midstream
Kinder Morgan KMI US - - - $37.93 $52,428 $88,718 4.2% nmf 31.8x 23.3x 19.9x 22.0x 34.3x 29.8x 18.9x 13.6x NA NA 7.4% 6.0%
ONEOK OKE US - - - $51.44 $10,607 $20,123 3.0% 30.1x 31.0x 25.2x 22.2x 14.3x 12.8x 10.6x 9.1x 5.2x NA NA 20.3% 15.5%
Spectra Energy SE US - - - $33.11 $22,162 $37,723 3.7% 23.2x 21.9x 20.6x 18.4x 15.6x 12.9x 12.0x 11.5x 4.9x NA NA 20.9% 17.2%
Williams Companies WMB US - - - $36.24 $24,759 $38,417 4.0% 32.6x nmf 30.5x 24.9x 16.1x 17.6x 14.0x 12.1x 4.5x NA NA 10.7% 12.3%
Average - $27,489 $46,245 3.7% 28.6x 28.2x 24.9x 21.4x 17.0x 19.4x 16.6x 12.9x 7.0x NA 14.8% 12.8%
Median - $23,460 $38,070 3.9% 30.1x 31.0x 24.3x 21.0x 15.8x 15.2x 13.0x 11.8x 5.0x NA 15.5% 13.9%
Overall Average 25.4% 4.9% 23.9x 22.7x 20.8x 19.8x 15.1x 13.7x 12.5x 11.3x 5.1x 0.84x -1.9% 1.0%
Overall Median 23.7% 4.7% 24.0x 23.8x 21.0x 18.4x 15.3x 12.6x 11.6x 11.5x 4.9x 0.85x -1.5% 3.4%
Energy Infrastructure
Notes:
CSE (including ReD and Bristol Water @ 100%); ENB (minority int. @ market); VSN (proportionally consolidated debt)
US stock market data in USD
Ratings: O (Outperform), N (Neutral), U (Underperform)
Basic Market Cap, Fully Diluted EV
Macquarie Research
Fig 7 North American midstream comps
Pipelines - US MLPs
Atlas Pipeline Partners L.P. APL US - - $38.80 $3,014 $4,927 6.4% nmf 26.0x 22.7x 13.5x 10.9x 9.5x 22.9% 11.7%
Boardwalk Pipeline Partners L.P. BWP US - - $30.06 $7,311 $10,420 7.1% 23.4x 22.1x 20.7x 14.0x 13.4x 12.8x 20.7% 11.2%
Buckeye Partners L.P. BPL US - - $70.00 $7,428 $10,081 6.1% 20.9x 18.7x 16.6x 16.2x 14.4x 13.0x 54.2% 41.6%
El Paso Pipeline Partners L.P. EPB US - - $41.73 $9,275 $10,901 6.0% 20.5x 19.0x 18.9x 11.8x 11.2x 10.9x 12.9% 15.3%
Enbridge Energy Partners L.P. EEP US - - $29.82 $9,042 $16,862 7.3% 27.6x 18.8x 18.5x 12.3x 11.0x 10.7x 6.9% 1.2%
Energy Transfer Partners L.P. ETP US - - $51.27 $19,289 $39,581 7.0% 21.7x 17.4x 19.2x 12.0x 11.6x 10.5x 19.4% 20.0%
Enterprise Products Partners L.P. EPD US - - $59.42 $55,065 $71,672 4.6% 21.2x 20.1x 18.6x 15.6x 14.8x 13.9x 18.7% 11.3%
Holly Energy Partners L.P. HEP US - - $35.53 $2,084 $2,828 5.5% 32.6x 27.2x 24.5x 15.4x 14.0x 12.9x 8.0% 5.4%
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners L.P. KMP US - - $81.56 $35,127 $57,037 6.5% 30.2x 31.0x 28.3x 10.8x 9.7x 9.0x 2.2% (1.5%)
NuStar Energy L.P. NS US - - $41.71 $3,249 $5,773 10.5% nmf 22.8x 17.2x 13.2x 11.3x 10.4x (1.8%) (17.8%)
Plains All American Pipeline L.P. PAA US - - $50.56 $17,329 $25,292 4.6% 16.5x 17.4x 16.0x 11.5x 11.3x 10.7x 11.8% 16.9%
Regency Energy Partners L.P. RGP US - - $27.03 $5,673 $9,097 6.9% nmf nmf 37.5x 14.7x 12.5x 12.3x 24.7% 16.8%
Sunoco Logistics Partners L.P. SXL US - - $64.24 $6,921 $9,012 3.7% 16.9x 19.2x 16.7x 10.5x 10.8x 9.7x 29.2% 37.7%
Transmontaigne Partners L.P. TLP US - - $41.28 $666 $901 6.3% 20.1x 15.5x 15.0x 12.5x 11.2x 11.3x 8.7% 13.0%
Williams Partners L.P. WPZ US - - $49.33 $21,478 $27,868 7.0% 34.8x 23.5x 19.5x 13.8x 11.1x 9.7x 1.4% (4.4%)
Average $13,530 $20,150 6.4% 23.9x 21.3x 20.7x 13.2x 11.9x 11.1x 16.0% 11.9%
Median $7,428 $10,420 6.4% 21.4x 19.7x 18.9x 13.2x 11.3x 10.7x 12.9% 11.7%
Midstream - Canada
AltaGas ALA CN O $44.00 $35.93 $4,259 $7,724 4.3% 26.0x 21.6x 20.1x 15.9x 14.2x 13.0x 7.0% 15.8%
Gibson Energy GEI CN O $31.00 $22.59 $2,749 $3,357 4.9% 18.4x 22.2x 18.1x 8.6x 9.2x 8.1x (6.1%) 4.2%
Keyera KEY CN O $66.00 $57.63 $4,518 $5,368 3.9% 30.2x 25.4x 20.5x 14.8x 13.9x 12.5x 17.1% 28.1%
Average $3,842 $5,483 4.3% 24.9x 23.1x 19.6x 13.1x 12.4x 11.2x 6.0% 16.0%
Median $4,259 $5,368 4.3% 26.0x 22.2x 20.1x 14.8x 13.9x 12.5x 7.0% 15.8%
Midstream - US MLPs
Crestwood Midstream Partners L.P. CMLP US - - $25.94 $1,750 $2,343 7.9% nmf 32.6x 25.0x 14.9x 11.7x 9.4x 20.5% 5.4%
Crosstex Energy L.P. XTEX US - - $18.72 $1,660 $2,659 7.1% nmf nmf nmf 13.3x 10.0x 8.2x 28.7% 25.8%
DCP Midstream Partners L.P. DPM US - - $47.93 $4,180 $5,560 5.9% 21.2x 19.8x 15.8x 17.5x 14.1x 11.6x 14.8% 11.1%
Inergy L.P. NRGY US - - $13.74 $2,432 $2,023 3.8% nmf nmf nmf 12.8x 7.4x 7.0x 28.3% 33.3%
Magellan Midstream Partners L.P. MMP US - - $54.26 $12,300 $14,565 3.9% 21.9x 20.0x 18.2x 18.3x 16.7x 15.4x 25.6% 30.8%
MarkWest Energy Partners L.P. MWE US - - $66.79 $9,416 $13,719 5.0% nmf 28.2x 21.1x 19.3x 13.5x 11.5x 30.9% 25.8%
Martin Midstream Partners L.P. MMLP US - - $45.49 $1,211 $1,785 6.9% 25.0x 23.8x 18.4x 12.5x 11.4x 10.0x 46.5% 33.7%
Spectra Energy Partners L.P. SEP US - - $41.68 $4,535 $5,587 4.9% 27.1x 17.4x 17.2x 24.7x 6.9x 6.5x 33.5% 30.2%
Targa Resources Partners L.P. NGLS US - - $48.86 $5,183 $7,858 5.9% nmf 27.8x 20.8x 13.5x 10.8x 9.7x 30.7% 20.6%
Average $4,741 $6,233 5.7% 23.8x 24.2x 19.5x 16.3x 11.4x 9.9x 28.8% 24.1%
Median $4,180 $5,560 5.9% 23.5x 23.8x 18.4x 14.9x 11.4x 9.7x 28.7% 25.8%
Overall Average $10,769 $16,646 5.8% 24.1x 22.4x 20.6x 14.4x 12.2x 11.1x 16.7% 15.3%
Energy Infrastructure
Overall Median $6,257 $9,055 5.9% 23.4x 21.8x 18.7x 13.7x 11.6x 10.8x 15.9% 15.6%
Notes:
ENB (minority int. @ market); EEP (our estimated EPS and EBITDA); VSN (proportionally consolidated debt)
Ratings: O (Outperform), N (Neutral), U (Underperform)
US stock market data in USD
Macquarie Research
Fig 8 North American power comps
P/E EV/EBITDA Stock Returns
Target Price Market Current Annual
TICKER Rating Price Analyst 08/30/13 Cap EV Yield 2013E 2014E 2015E 2013E 2014E 2015E YTD 52-wk
Power - Canada
Algonquin Power AQN CN O $8.00 RC $6.74 $1,386 $2,448 5.0% 24.1x 18.8x 15.6x 12.6x 11.4x 10.3x (1.5%) 1.2%
Atlantic Power ATP CN N $4.50 RC $4.20 $504 $2,741 9.5% nmf nmf nmf 12.2x 11.2x 12.3x (62.9%) (69.8%)
Boralex BLX CN - - RC $10.60 $400 $1,093 0.0% nmf nmf nmf 12.8x 9.0x 9.0x 15.6% 30.5%
Brookfield Renewable Energy BEP-U CN - - RC $27.25 $3,623 $15,502 5.5% nmf nmf nmf 12.5x 12.1x 11.9x (7.2%) (7.5%)
Capstone CSE CN O $4.50 RC $3.91 $298 $1,511 7.7% 7.3x 7.4x 8.1x 8.8x 9.0x 8.8x (3.0%) (10.3%)
Capital Power CPX CN - - RC $20.66 $1,466 $4,480 6.1% 15.0x 15.8x 13.2x 9.1x 9.4x 7.9x (9.1%) (5.4%)
Innergex Renewable Energy INE CN - - RC $8.62 $814 $2,259 6.7% nmf nmf 39.6x 15.4x 13.3x 14.9x (16.7%) (21.1%)
Northland Power NPI CN O $19.00 RC $14.34 $1,866 $3,555 7.5% 39.5x 35.5x 24.8x 15.0x 12.7x 11.7x (23.2%) (22.4%)
TransAlta TA CN - - RC $13.54 $3,606 $8,952 8.6% 23.9x 19.7x 22.0x 9.2x 8.7x 8.2x (10.4%) (9.1%)
Average $1,551 $4,727 6.3% 22.0x 19.4x 20.6x 12.0x 10.8x 10.6x (13.2%) (12.6%)
Median $1,386 $2,741 6.7% 23.9x 18.8x 18.8x 12.5x 11.2x 10.3x (9.1%) (9.1%)
Power - US
Calpine CPN US N $22.00 AS $19.33 $8,656 $18,760 0.0% nmf 33.5x 23.8x 10.3x 9.6x 9.1x 17.3% 33.2%
Dynegy DYN US U $18.00 AS $19.43 $1,982 $3,164 0.0% 16.1x nmf nmf 14.6x 14.0x 14.4x 15.3% (39.8%)
NRG Energy NRG US O $33.00 AS $26.25 $8,584 $20,551 1.8% nmf 19.9x 30.9x 7.9x 7.0x 7.3x 15.4% 70.0%
Average $6,407 $14,158 0.6% 16.1x 26.7x 27.4x 10.9x 10.2x 10.2x 16.0% 21.1%
Median $8,584 $18,760 0.0% 16.1x 26.7x 27.4x 10.3x 9.6x 9.1x 15.4% 33.2%
Utilities - Canada
Atco ACO/X CN - - - $43.31 $4,992 $13,113 1.7% 12.8x 11.8x 11.4x 9.6x 9.1x 8.3x 7.3% 13.4%
Canadian Utilities CU CN - - - $34.17 $8,803 $15,382 2.8% 15.5x 14.4x 13.7x 10.6x 10.2x 9.9x (5.0%) 0.5%
Emera EMA CN - - - $29.83 $3,935 $8,328 4.7% 16.9x 15.9x 14.6x 11.5x 11.0x 10.9x (14.1%) (13.3%)
Fortis FTS CN - - - $30.35 $6,426 $14,807 4.1% 17.6x 16.8x 16.0x 10.9x 10.2x 9.5x (11.3%) (6.6%)
Average $6,039 $12,907 3.3% 15.7x 14.7x 13.9x 10.7x 10.1x 9.6x (5.8%) (1.5%)
Median $5,709 $13,960 3.5% 16.2x 15.1x 14.2x 10.8x 10.2x 9.7x (8.2%) (3.0%)
Utilities - US
AES AES US O $14.50 AS $12.71 $9,469 $29,903 1.3% 10.0x 9.4x 8.9x 6.0x 5.6x 5.5x 11.3% (2.2%)
Alliant Energy LNT US O $53.00 AW $49.61 $5,501 $8,917 3.8% 15.7x 15.1x 14.4x 10.2x 9.8x 10.1x 12.3% 10.6%
American Electric Power AEP US N $47.50 AS $42.80 $20,801 $39,638 4.6% 13.7x 13.0x 12.6x 9.1x 9.2x 9.4x 4.5% 13.2%
CenterPoint Energy CNP US O $27.00 AW $22.93 $9,851 $18,598 3.6% 19.1x 17.4x 16.0x 8.7x 9.7x 9.6x 21.0% 14.8%
CMS Energy CMS US O $30.00 AW $26.53 $7,221 $14,368 3.8% 16.1x 15.1x 14.4x 8.9x 8.8x 9.0x 12.5% 18.4%
Dominion Resources D US O $63.00 AS $58.35 $33,800 $53,362 3.9% 17.7x 16.4x 15.5x 11.6x 11.0x 10.5x 8.7% 5.5%
DTE Energy DTE US O $71.00 AW $66.87 $11,795 $19,059 3.9% 16.4x 15.6x 14.7x 8.5x 8.5x 8.5x 10.6% 14.1%
Duke Energy DUK US O $74.00 AS $65.60 $46,314 $86,449 4.7% 15.4x 14.6x 14.0x 10.8x 10.8x 10.3x 6.0% (1.6%)
Edison International EIX US O $52.00 AS $45.89 $15,144 $26,931 2.9% 13.6x 13.4x 13.2x 8.1x 7.5x 7.0x 4.6% 4.1%
Entergy ETR US O $74.00 AS $63.23 $11,238 $25,830 5.3% 12.5x 12.0x 11.8x 8.6x 8.3x 8.4x 10.2% 5.4%
Exelon EXC US N $33.00 AS $30.49 $26,045 $45,282 4.1% 12.5x 14.0x 13.4x 6.1x 6.7x 6.7x 5.4% (14.3%)
FirstEnergy FE US O $44.00 AS $37.47 $15,662 $35,426 5.9% 12.4x 12.2x 10.6x 7.4x 7.1x 6.4x (11.3%) (22.4%)
Hawaiian Electric Industries HE US N $26.00 AW $25.01 $2,493 $3,956 5.0% 15.4x 14.7x 14.3x 9.0x 9.3x 10.0x (0.9%) (10.7%)
NextEra Energy NEE US O $86.00 AS $80.36 $34,089 $60,728 3.3% 16.4x 15.5x 14.6x 10.1x 9.8x 9.4x 15.4% 19.1%
Northeast Utilities NU US N $43.00 AW $40.97 $12,945 $22,084 3.6% 16.1x 15.3x 14.5x 15.6x 16.0x 16.2x 5.6% 8.6%
PG&E Corp. PCG US N $43.00 AS $41.36 $18,707 $32,525 4.4% 15.6x 14.0x 13.7x 9.5x 9.4x 9.4x 12.8% 2.0%
Portland General Electric POR US N $31.00 AW $28.81 $2,218 $3,824 3.8% 22.1x 13.4x 13.1x 7.8x 8.2x 7.9x 10.5% 15.7%
PPL PPL US O $33.00 AS $30.70 $20,416 $37,824 4.8% 13.2x 14.3x 14.2x 10.4x 11.1x 11.2x 3.8% 8.1%
Public Service Enterprise PEG US N $34.00 AS $32.42 $16,437 $24,478 4.4% 13.2x 13.6x 14.5x 7.3x 7.2x 7.5x 7.5% 5.1%
SCANA SCG US N $49.00 AW $48.12 $6,742 $12,301 4.2% 14.5x 14.2x 13.6x 11.7x 12.5x 13.3x 7.0% 4.7%
Southern SO US N $45.00 AS $41.62 $36,251 $61,015 4.9% 15.3x 14.6x 14.1x 9.7x 10.0x 9.4x 2.8% (5.0%)
TECO Energy TE US N $17.00 AW $16.53 $3,562 $6,412 5.3% 17.7x 16.1x 14.5x 8.6x 7.8x 7.6x 1.4% (4.2%)
UIL Holdings UIL US N $40.00 AW $37.76 $1,933 $3,663 4.6% 18.0x 15.7x 14.9x 9.0x 10.2x 10.7x 4.9% 6.8%
Xcel Energy XEL US N $31.00 AS $27.92 $13,684 $24,833 4.0% 14.7x 13.9x 13.4x 9.1x 9.2x 9.1x 7.3% 3.2%
Average $15,930 $29,059 4.2% 15.3x 14.3x 13.7x 9.2x 9.3x 9.3x 7.3% 4.1%
Median $13,314 $25,331 4.1% 15.4x 14.4x 14.1x 9.0x 9.2x 9.4x 7.2% 5.2%
Overall Average $10,991 $20,851 4.3% 16.4x 15.8x 15.6x 10.1x 9.8x 9.7x 2.0% 1.1%
Energy Infrastructure
Overall Median $7,903 $15,442 4.3% 15.5x 14.7x 14.3x 9.6x 9.5x 9.4x 5.5% 2.6%
Notes:
CSE (including ReD and Bristol Water @ 100%)
Analyst: AS (Angie Storozynski), AW (Andrew Weisel), RC (Rob Catellier)
Ratings: O (Outperform), N (Neutral), U (Underperform)
US stock market data in USD
3 September 2013 13
Macquarie Research Energy Infrastructure
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