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1. Introduction
A key point in the design and operation of a mine is the construction of what is called
an ore body model. The proper description of an ore body is the foundation upon which
follow up mine decisions are taken. An ore body model has three distinct components,
viz.
(i) the physical geometry of the geologic units that formed and host the ore body;
(ii) the attribute characterisation in terms of assays and geo-mechanical properties of
all materials to be mined; and
(iii) the value model in terms of economic mining of the ore body.
The ore body model is constructed by interpolating between sample points and
extrapolating onto the volume beyond sample limits. The modelling depends on
considerations such as sampling methods, reliability of data, specific purpose of
estimation and required accuracy. The basic concept of ore body modelling is to conceive
the entire ore body as an array of blocks arranged in a three dimensional X Y Z grid
system (X representing Easting, Y representing Northing and Z representing Elevation)
by making certain assumptions about the continuity of the ore body parameters. Each
block of uniform size represents a small volume of material to which the value of width,
grade, tonnage and other geological entities are assigned. There are four conditions that
an ore body model must satisfy, viz.
(i) the parameters of a model chosen should allow estimation to be made;
(ii) the model must be able to provide an answer to a relevant question;
(iii) the model must be compatible with data; and
(iv) the predictions of the model should be verified or checked by experience.
The conventional methods are based on the rules given by Popoff (1966), which
govern delineation of block boundaries for the purpose of reserve estimation, viz.
(i) The rule of gradual changes;
(ii) The rule of nearest points or equal sphere of influences; and
(iii) The rule of generalization of influence range.
The rule of gradual changes points to a linear change in any property between two
points where the value of property (such as quality parameters, width, density etc.) is
known. The rule of nearest points expresses that in the absence of any other information,
the value at any point nearer to the location can be presumed. The rule of influence range
provides the reasonable distance for extending the value of a sample along a given
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direction within its influence.
Methods Descriptions
ii) Triangulation method Sample points are connected by straight lines to form a series
of triangles (Fig.1.(2)). The grade of each triangle estimated
from the arithmetic mean of the three corner samples, as a
thickness weighted mean or by weighting samples as a
function of their distance from the centre of the triangle. A
global estimate is obtained by summing the individual triangle
grades weighted by their respective areas.
iii) Sectional method Cross sections are constructed from a set of drill holes in lines
across a mineral deposit (Fig.1. (3)). An area of mineralisation
in each section is outlined by joining the intersected
thicknesses and measured by a planimeter. Estimation of
average grade is carried out by summing the individual drill
composite grades weighted by their respective thickness.
iv) Random Stratified Grid A regular grid of a suitable size and an orientation is adjusted
on a set of sample distributed in space by trial and error until,
method as far as possible, at least one sample falls per grid panel
(Fig.1. (4)). An estimated global mean value of the deposit is
the thickness weighted average of the individual panel values.
vi) Computer methods Most of the above methods have been computerized at some
stage or other. Hewlet (1962) had developed computer
programs for polygons and triangles while numerous
contouring packages are readily available today. Other
computer methods include i) estimation by linear or quadratic
interpolation between known values, i.e. Inverse Distance; ii)
estimation by fitting a surface polynomial to known values, i.e.
Trend Surface Analysis; and iii) estimation by smoothing of
3 grade variation, i.e. Moving Average.
A comprehensive view of these techniques has been given by Davis (1986).
Each of these techniques has its merits and limitations. However, recent advances in
geomathematical modelling have established that the probabilistic methods are more
useful and accurate than the deterministic methods.
3.1 Deterministic techniques
The deterministic techniques provide only one outcome for an event or process.
These methods generate a single realisation for qualitative and quantitative estimates of
reserve parameters. The more important techniques under the deterministic group include
(i) distance weighting, (ii) moving average and (iii) trend surface analysis.
Distance weighting
These methods became more popular when computer assistance became available to
perform a large number of repetitive calculations. The objective of distance weighting
methods is to assign a value for the mineral quality (assay value) parameters i.e. grade or
for the depositional parameters (i.e. thickness) to a point block within given volume
based on an appropriate linear combination of the sample values of the surrounding
sample locations (i.e. drill holes). In general, it is assumed that the potential influence of
a sample value (say, grade) at a point decreases as one moves away from that point. The
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grade change, thus, becomes a function of distance i.e. f (di).
Deterministic Probabilistic
(Single outcome) (Many p ossible outcomes)
Parametric Non-Parametric
(Interval or ratio scale) (Normal or ordinal Scale)
At times, a constant `k is added to the distance with power `n, the value of `k being
chosen empirically to provide an adequate fit. This provides a mathematical function:
f{1/ (din +k)}
Although the most common distance weight in use is 1/d2, various other powers or
combinations of powers of `d and a constant `k are used (David, 1980). The distance
weighting methods have following drawbacks:
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Moving average
Moving average technique produces a trend surface and represents a smooth picture
of grade variation but not confined by a mathematical function. It was first used by krige
(1964) in South Africa to establish block grades that provided the basis for the
development of Geostatistics. The method differs from others in that all data surrounding
block is used to value it but once all the blocks have been valued, the point values are
deleted from any further calculations.
The strategy in the trend surface analysis should be initiated by (i) evaluating the
reliability of the fitted trend surface (ii) selecting right geological and statistical models
and (iii) considering the pertinence of trend surface analysis of geological data (Koch and
Link, 1970). Trend surface of a part can be patched with each other. It is a mathematical
technique and unless it can be geologically explained, it has no relevance in geological
data analysis or in modelling of a mineral deposit.
1 0.5{( xi x ) / s}2
f ( x) e
p.d.f.,
s 2 ,where x is sample mean which is an
The cumulative probability density function (c. d. f.) of normal distribution has the
expression:
xi
Estimation of parameters
Once the fit of a normal distribution is established to a sample distribution, the
theory of distribution can be applied to estimate mean, variance and confidence limits of
mean. The sample mean and the sample variance for a normal distribution are estimated
as follows:
n
Sample mean, X = [1/n] xi
i 1
n
Sample variance, s 2 =[1/n-1] ( xi x )2
i 1
where S = S2 is the standard deviation of the sample population and ' n ' is the number
of samples drawn from the population. The mean value 'm' of the ore body is estimated
by m = x with variance, V = S2/n. If mp were the confidence limit of the true mean 'm'
such that the probability of 'm' being less than mp is p, then m1-p is the confidence limit
such that the probability that 'm' being larger than m1-p is 1-p, then the probability of 'm'
falls between mp and m1-p is 1-2p confidence limits of mean. The following equations are
to be used to calculate mp and m1-p for the mean value 'm' of the ore body:
Lower limit, mp = m - t 1-p* S/ n; and
Upper limit, m1-p = m + t 1-p* S/ n.
where t 1-p is the value of the Student's 't' variate for f = n-1, degrees of freedom, such
that the probability that 't' is smaller than t 1-p is 1-p.
Once optimum solution for 'm' has been determined, it is desirable to check for the
goodness of fit for the normal distribution to the sample distribution. Chi-squared (2)
provides a robust technique for the fit. The test statistics is given by:
2 = [(Oi - Ei) 2/ Ei],
where Oi = observed frequency in a group; and Ei = corresponding expected frequency
in that group. For a sample distribution approximating normal distribution, the calculated
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The degree of skewness and kurtosis of a sample distribution are given as:
Skewness, Sk = [1/n-1] [( xi x )3 /S3 ]
The degree of skewness is a parameter that measures the symmetry of the distribution
curve while the degree of kurtosis measures its peakedness. For an ideal normal
distribution curve, the degree of skewness should be zero or close to zero and the kurtosis
should be equal to or close to three (Rendu, 1981).
Fitting a normal distribution
The first step in fitting a normal distribution to sample values involves grouping of
the sample values in different classes and calculation of frequencies corresponding to
each class. Though the class interval is chosen based on experience, yet it is best
achieved applying an approximation provided by Sturges rule (Wellmer, 1998) as given
below:
Class interval = R / ((1+3.322 log10 (n))
=R/((1+1.4427ln (n))
where R= Range of values, a difference between maximum and minimum value;
n = Total number of values/cumulative frequency.
The individual class frequencies when divided by the total number of sample
frequencies provide relative frequencies and enable construction of histogram that
reflects whether or not the sample values are symmetrically distributed.
x 2
where = Logarithmic mean or log mean and;
2 = Logarithmic variance or log variance.
The probability distribution of a 3-parameter lognormal variate xi is defined by
(i) the additive constant c;
(ii) the log mean of (xi + c); and
13 (iii) the log variance of (xi + c).
The value of n (V) factor is read from Sichel's table (David, 1977), where n = number of
samples and V= Log variance.
Average value, m = m*-c
Variance, S2 = m2 [eV -1] = m2 [exp (2) -1]
The lower and upper limits for the estimation of a central 90% confidence interval of
the mean of a lognormal distribution is obtained by using the factors 0.05 (V, n) and 0.95
(V, n) respectively.
Lower limit = [(0.05 (V, n) ) (m)] - c
Upper limit = [(0.95 (V, n) ) (m* )]- c
(i) The curve is plotted on a logarithmic-probability scale. The upper class value limits are
14 plotted on the ordinate (in log scale) while the corresponding percent cumulative
frequencies are plotted on the abscissa (in probability scale).
The classical statistical models can define the precision of an estimate, but they have
a few drawbacks. It is assumed that the samples taken from an unknown population are
randomly distributed and are independent of one another. In case of mineral deposits, this
implies that all the samples in the deposit have an equal probability of being selected. The
likely presence of trends, zones of enrichment or pay shoots in the mineralisation all may
get neglected (Rendu, 1981).
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Most regionalised variables, in ore reserve estimation, display two aspects; viz. (i) a
random aspect, consisting of highly irregular and unpredictable variations and (ii) a
structured aspect, reflecting spatial characteristics of the regionalised phenomena. The
two-fold purposes of the theory of regionalised variables are, (i) to express the spatial
properties of regionalised phenomena in adequate form; and (ii) to solve the problems of
estimating regionalised variables from sample data (Kim, 1991).
Geostatistics, if properly understood and appropriately applied does derive from the
raw data, the best possible estimates of ore body parameters. The Conventional methods
of estimation of mineral reserves and grades, in practice, do not provide any objective
way of measuring the reliability of the estimates (Sarkar, O' Leary and Mill, 1990). The
Classical statistical techniques provide an error of estimation stated by confidence limits
but ignore the spatial relations within a set of sample values (Royle et al., 1980). Trend
surface analysis and Moving average methods take into account the spatial relationships
16 but ignore the error of estimations (Davis, 1986). Geostatistics overrides these limitations
by providing estimates together with a minimum error variance (Matheron, 1971).
A brief description of some the important geostatistical techniques are given in Table 2.
Of these kriging techniques, the Ordinary Kriging is the most simple and widely used
kriging technique.
Table 3. Various techniques of kriging
Kriging techniques Description
1. Ordinary kriging Linear kriging of a variable with unknown mean is called as
(Journel and Huijbregts, ordinary kriging (OK). The OK technique accounts for local
1978; Goovaerts, 1997 variation of mean by limiting the domain of stationarity of
and Olea, 1999) mean to neighbourhood samples. This technique imposes a
constraint that the sum of the kriged weights must be equal
to unity.
2. Simple kriging Simple kriging (SK) is the form of linear kriging where the
(Goovaerts, 1997; mean of the regionalised variable is known. There is no
Armstrong, 1998 and condition in the sum of the weight.
Olea 1999)
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4. Lognormal kriging At times when it is not possible to find an acceptable linear
(Rendu, 1979 and 1981; combination of kriging coefficients, kriged estimate may be
13. Factorial kriging Factorial kriging technique estimates a given factor for a
(Bleines et al., 2004) given scale component. In this method, the kriged estimate
can be recovered through a linear decomposition, as the
factors are mutually independent.
14. Collocated kriging This technique is used when a variable based on sparse
(Bleines et al., 2004) sampling is being estimated on a regular grid and analysis of
another correlated variable is available at each node. This
technique is a modification of co-kriging technique.
Semi-variography
The basic assumptions made for geostatistical structural modelling purpose include:
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(i) The values of samples located near or inside a block of ground are most closely related
where Z (xi) is the value of regionalised variable (e.g., grade) at a point x i in the space;
Z(xi +h) is the grade at another point at a distance 'h' known as lag distance/lag interval
and 'N' is the number of sample pairs being considered.
2 Variance
(h)
CV(h)
20 h
(ii) A measure of the zone or area of influence: The distance at which a semi-
variogram levels off its plateau is called the range (or zone) of influence of semi-
variogram. It is the distance up to which the regionalised component has its effect. In
other words, it is the range where a sample reaches a point far enough apart so as to
have its any influence upon the other sample point. Beyond this amount of separation,
values of sample pair do not correlate with one another and become independent. In the
deposits, where there is no continuity, the samples have no range of influence. The range
of influence thus provides an improved basis over the conventional notion of half way
influence.
(iii) Sill (C0 +C): The corresponding value of semi-variogram function (h) for which
semi-variogram plateaus off is referred to as sill variance (Matheron, 1971). For all
practical purposes, the sill variance is considered equal to the statistical variance of all
sample values used to compute an experimental semi-variogram.
21 (v) A measure of trend: A visual glance on the semi-variogram may reflect the
presence of trend in the dataset. The trend is characterised by a conspicuous hump in
Based on semi-variography of the residuals (x), block values are then estimated
for the residuals, employing geostatistical estimation (Rossi, 1989; Journal and Rossi,
1989; Isaaks and Srivastava, 1989; Sarma and Selvaraj, 1990; Singh and Singh, 1996 and
Watson et al., 2001). The trend component m (x) of each block is added to the estimated
residual value R (x) to have the estimated block value g (x) for a variable, i.e.,
g (x) = R (x) + m (x)
(vi) A measure of Anisotropy: When the semi-variograms calculated for all pairs of
points in various principal directions exhibit different types of behaviours such as
difference in ranges, they are said to reflect anisotropy. If this does not occur, the semi-
variograms depend only on the magnitude of distance between the points and are said to
spatially 'isotropic'. Two different types of anisotropies are distinguished as: (i)
geometric/elliptic anisotropy; and (ii) zonal/stratified anisotropy. In the former case, the
ratio of the larger range to smaller range provides the anisotropy ratio while in the latter
case it is common practice to split the semi-variogram into two components-an isotropic
one plus another anisotropic type that reflects variations in the vertical direction.
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Based on inspection of crude semi-variogram model that is initially fitted by hand fit
method to the experimental semi-variogram, estimates of semi-variogram parameters (C0,
Kriging
The geostatistical procedure of estimating values of a regionalized variable using the
information obtained from a semi-variogram is Kriging. Let G* be the kriged estimate of
the average value of grade G of the samples having values g1, g2, g3, ..,gn. Let a1, a2,
a3,.. an be the weightage given to each of the values respectively such that ai =1; and
G* =ai gi .Thus the estimation becomes unbiased; the mean error is zero for a large
number of estimated values and the estimated variance is minimum. The Kriging
variance is given as k2 = (gi -G *). 2
11 12 13 1 a1 1p
12 22 23 1 * a2 = 2p
13 23 33 1 a3 3p
1 1 1 0 1
where I,j is the semi-variance over a distance 'h' corresponding to separation between
control points (i,j).From this matrix, the values of a1,a2,a3 and are obtained and the
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value at a desired point is estimated thereof. The kriging variance is computed as: k2
Block kriging
It is a method of estimation of a block of ground with the help of surrounding sample
values using the theory of Regionalised variables. The kriged estimate G * of a block is
mathematically expressed as: G* = ai gi where G* = estimated value of the block using a
set of sample Si.; ai = weight coefficients and n = number of samples used for estimation
of block. Normally, the minimum and maximum number of samples used for kriging a
block is taken between 4 and 12 or 3 and 15.
The weight coefficients, ai, and the Lagrangian multiplier, are computed from the
matrix form of kriging equation, which is given as:
Each slice forms a set of X and Y arrays of blocks with constant Z values (X-Easting,
Y-Northing, Z- Elevation). The arrays of blocks are then kriged slice by slice, producing
kriged estimates and kriging variance for each of them. At first step, the following input
parameters are required for block Kriging:
i. A minimum of 4 and a maximum of 16 samples to krige a block,
ii. The radius of search for sample points around a block centre should be within the
range of influence,
iii. The semi-variogram parameters: nugget variance (C0), transition variance or
continuity and range (a),
iv. The ratio of anisotropy in case of anisotropic semi-variogram model, and
v. The dimension of blocks to be kriged and block coordinates.
The next steps that follow include:
i) Computation of average variability of sample values contained within the
dimensions of small blocks;
ii) Selection of nearest samples lying within the radius of search;
iii) Counting the number of the samples. If found insufficient with reference to a
minimum specified to krige a block, the next block is taken up and procedure is
repeated from step ii);
iv) Establishing kriging matrices and computation of weight coefficient;
The individual slices are then averaged to produce a global estimate of kriged mean
together with associated variance. The methods of kriging described here viz.,Point
Kriging and Block Kriging belong to linear geostatistics.
The non-linear geostatistics deals with Lognormal Kriging (Rendu, 1979 and 1981;
Sinclair and Blackwell, 2002), Disjunctive Kriging (Matheron, 1976) and Multi-Gaussian
Kriging (Verly, 1983), while the non-parametric geostatistics includes Indicator Kriging
(Journel, 1983; Sinclair and Blackwell, 2002) and Probability Kriging (Sulivan, 1984).
Additionally, there are other models such as Universal Kriging (Kriging in the presence
of trend, Journel and Huijbregts, 1978; Deutsch and Journel, 1997), Co-Kriging (Kriging
of one variable based on the correlation of it with the other variable, Journel and
Huijbregts, 1978); Polygonal kriging and Blast hole Kriging (David, 1988; Kim, 1993).
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