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"PART BOOK
IOC PROFIT"
4th May 2017
With the full commissioning of 15MMTPA Paradip refinery, Indian Oil Corporation is equipped to cater the growing fuel demand in the country.
Management expects 95% capacity utilization of Paradip refinery and volume growth of 3-4 MTPA going forward. Further management plans to
add 300 retail outlets every year to its existing network of 25000+ outlets. This will improve the volume of the company up-to a large extent. IOC
has equipped with BS VI standard HSD and BS VI standard motor spirit and prepared to start supply by Oct17. IOC maintains healthy dividend
payout of 33%. Currently stock is trading at 1.9x FY19 P/BV. Recently IOC rallied smartly and achieved our recommended target price of Rs 445.
We expect that the stock has discounted all the near term positives and at this price point the valuation seems little stretched, so we recommend
our short term investors to book profit at current levels but long term investors may hold this stock. .............................................. ( Page : 5-8)
Feb-17
Sep-16
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are sold by retail investors, which can be seen as lack of interest for
participation in Buy-back, indicating higher acceptance in buy-back.
After studying Wipro's (Direct Industry Peer) Buy-back Tendering pattern of last years, and on the basis of our analysis
of various other buy backs done in past, We have a positive view on this particular Buy-back.. We recommend retail
shareholders "BUY" the stock around CMP of 2340/- for tendering in Buy-Back . As per our fundamental
analysis, near term downside risk is capped at 10% from current market price..Our analysis suggest potential return
of upto 6.8% safer arbitrage return (after adjusting 30% tax on offline transfer of shares) in this Buy-back.. The
holding period would be approx 45 days from now.
10.0% 10.4%
7.1% 7.1% Financials/Valu FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
5.0%
ation
Net Sales 4,49,509 3,55,927 5,81,260 6,05,700 6,09,900
0.0%
EBITDA 10,550 23,197 38,362 38,949 39,653
EBIT 5,331 17,278 31,289 31,275 31,142
Shareholding patterns % PAT 4,912 11,219 19,778 20,133 19,539
4QFY17 3QFY17 2QFY17 EPS (Rs) 20 46 41 41 40
Promoters 57.3 58.3 58.3 EPS growth (%) -31% 128% -12% 2% -3%
Public 42.7 41.7 41.7 ROE (%) 7% 15% 22% 20% 17%
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 ROCE (%) 5% 16% 24% 22% 20%
BV 68,832 75,994 88,501 1,01,413 1,13,930
Stock Performance % P/B (X) 1.3 1.3 2.4 2.1 1.9
1Mn 3Mn 1Yr P/E (x) 18.2 8.5 10.8 10.6 10.9
Absolute 17.6 107.4 63.3
Rel.to Nifty 16.2 88.8 54.8 RECENT DEVELOPMENT:
200 IOC NIFTY National Green Tribunal (NGT) has confirmed its order dated August 2,
2016, permitting IndianOil to go ahead with its LPG import terminal
180
project at Puthuvypeen, Kerala. This will enable the company to cater
160 growing LNG demand in future.
140
IOC plans to come up with a 15-million-tonne (MT) refinery, with an
investment of about Rs 40,000 crore, at Nagapattinam in Tamil Nadu.
120 Currently, Nagapattinam has a 1-mt plant operated by Chennai Petroleum
Corporation (CPCL), an IOC subsidiary.
100
Oil companies to bear merchant discount rate fees on debit card
80
payments for fuel. The fee is 1% on credit card transactions and 0.25-1%
Jul-16
Sep-16
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
May-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Apr-16
Apr-17
Mar-17
10% 4%
4%
13,684
8,000 7% 4,000 4%
6,591
6,285
6% 6% 8% 4%
10,287
6,000 3,000 2%
3,995
9,284
6%
3,122
3,096
7,949
2,000 2%
1,685
4,000
5,772
4%
5,355
4,750
1,000 -1%
1% 0%
666
2,000 2% -
(450)
- 0% (1,000) -2%
Concall Highlights:
Management expecting a volume growth of between 3- 4 million tonne(MT) going forward.
IOC's management indicated merger with Chennai Petro,but no timeline yet
All units of Paradip refinery are fully commissioned with capacity utilization of 80% in 3QFY17.Management
expects 95% capacity utilization by March 2017.
Management has guided for provisioning of Rs. 20000 Cr for the Entry tax. Out of which provision of Rs.
10000 Cr already made.
Capex guidance for FY18 is Rs. 19600 Cr and FY19 is ~ Rs. 25000 Cr.
Anticipated VAT for Paradip refinery is Rs. 150 Cr per month.
Growth in Gasoline volume - Management indicated that volume growth of gasoline is gaining
traction from March17.Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) volume is also growing at double digits. But,
diesel growth has remained flat.
Upcoming Projects- IOCL is investing Rs 34,000 Cr. on the petrochemical complex. The entire
petrochemical complex is expected to be commissioned by 2021. The polypropylene unit would have a
capacity of 7,000 kilo tonne per annum (KTPA) would be integrated with the oil refinery.
High Operational Efficiency- Paradip is expected to achieve GRM of USD 12/BBL post 95% capacity
utilisation. This will improve core GRM to USD 8/BBL.
LPG pipeline- The company is on track to construct 710km Paradip-Haldia-Durgapur LPG pipeline,
which will facilitate LPG transportation from Paradip and Haldia to the LPG bottling plants at Balasore,
Budge-Budge, Kalyani and Durgapur.
Volume Trend GRM Trend
Registrar Karvy Computershare Pvt Ltd These toll roads projects are BharuchSurat NH 8, JaipurDeoli NH 12, SuratDahisar NH 8,
TumkurChitradurga NH 4, OmalurSalemNamakkal NH 7 and TalegaonAmravati NH 6. While
Surat-Dahisar and Bharuch-Surat project has concession period tenure till January 2022 and Omalur-
Salem-Namakkal till August 2026, other projects have concession tenures ending in June 2037.
Sponsor has 22 BOT road projects on hand as on 31st December 2016 out of which 14 are
operational, 5 are under construction and 3 are under development. Futures of all these projects are
No of shares based on the daily traffic volumes, inflation and regulatory changes. Trust will follow factoring of WPI
in the pricing of the projects.
Offer for Sale 347,61,770
> Company has Experienced Sponsor, Investment Manager and Project Manager with consistent
track records in operating and maintaining projects in the roads and highways sector in India . The
Sponsor is one of the largest infrastructure development and construction companies in India in terms
of net worth in the roads and highways sector with a large project portfolio of 8,183 Lane Kilometres
of roads and highways in operation, under construction or under development, excluding the Initial
Road Assets, as of December 31, 2016.
> The Net Proceeds will be used to repay and replace a significant portion of the Project SPVs'
existing indebtedness. The resulting low leverage will provide them with debt capacity to grow their
business, including by financing future acquisitions. They intend on financing future development and
acquisitions through the issuance of additional Units .
Recommendation
IRB InvIT FUND is India's first registered infrastructure investment trust. IRB has bundled six of its operational toll road assets and transferred them
to the Trust.
The Trust generates income in the form of toll collection from these road assets and interest on cash in their books. According to SEBI guidelines,
the Trust needs to distribute at least 90 percent of this distributable cash to the unit holders in the form of dividend, which will be tax free. The
Trust also is exempted from dividend distribution tax.
Based on projected cash flow on the basis of estimated growth in traffic and inflation-linked increase in toll charges, at an upper price band of IPO
(Rs 102), the dividend yield will be close to 10%. Excessive investor interest may also lead to some price appreciation post-listing.
Risk attached to the issue is that the regulatory framework governing infrastructure investment trusts in India is untested and the interpretation
and enforcement thereof involve uncertainties.
Objects of Issue:
The object and purpose of the Trust, as described in the Indenture of Trust, is to carry on the activity of an infrastructure investment trust under
the InvIT Regulations, to raise resources in accordance with the InvIT Regulations, and to make investments in accordance with the investment
strategy of the Trust. The Trustee and the Investment Manager shall ensure that the subscription amounts are kept in a separate bank account in
the name of the Trust and are only utilised for adjustment against Allotment of Units or refund of money to the applicants until such Units are
listed.
3 InvIT should hold (directly or through SPVs) the infrastructure assets for at least 3 years from the date of
purchase of the asset by the InvIT (except investment in securities of infrastructure companies)
4 Investment into SPVs is subject to the InvIT holding a controlling interest (at least 51% of equity share capital) in
the SPVs
Profit & Loss Account ( Cr.) 31 Mar 14 31 Mar 15 31 Mar Ratio 31 Mar 14 31 Mar 15 31 Mar
16 16
Revenue (Net) 745.2 900.3 986.7 Profitability Ratios
Other Income 17.3 16.1 17.1 RoE 12% 12% 17%
Total Revenue 762.5 916.4 1,003.8 RoCE 12% 12% 17%
Road work and site expenses 48.0 142.6 128.4 Liquidity Ratios
Employee benefits expense 16.0 17.4 20.9 Net Debt/Equity 1.981 2.031 1.999
Other expenses 11.7 12.2 11.2 Interest Coverage Ratio 101.5 -95.1 18.7
Total Expenses 75.7 172.3 160.5
EBITDA 686.8 744.1 843.3 Issue Information
Depreciation and amortisation expenses 68.7 74.4 84.3 Type 100% Book Building
EBIT 618.2 669.7 759.0 Issue Size Rs. 4700 Crore
Finance Costs 375.6 444.8 434.8 Offer Price *Rs (100-102)/Equity Share
Profit / (loss) before tax 242.6 224.8 324.2 Min App Size 10000 Shares
Tax expenses 2.4 -2.4 17.3 Issue Open 42858.0
PROFIT AFTER TAX 240.2 227.2 306.9 Issue Close 42860.0
Other comprehensive income 0.1 0.0 -0.1 Shares Offer 45.6 Cr
Profit before Tax 240.3 227.2 306.8 Face Value Rs 10
Balance Sheet ( Cr.) 31 Mar 14 31 Mar 15 31 Mar Cash Flow ( Cr. ) 31 Mar 14 31 Mar 15 31 Mar
16 16
Share Capital 1111.6 1114.6 1114.6 Profit/(Loss) before tax (45.2) (126.1) (59.1)
Subordinated debt (in nature of equity) 695.6 698.5 698.5 Adjustments
Other equity 215.6 91.6 15.2 Interest expense 347.4 413.9 398.7
Net Worth 2022.7 1904.7 1828.2 Depreciation and amortisation expenses 356.4 425.4 467.6
Borrowings 4006.9 3868.2 3655.2 Dividend income on current investments (0.0) (0.0) (0.4)
Other financial liabilities 6959.2 6867.3 6662.6 Interest income (12.2) (10.1) (9.6)
Provisions 121.5 73.5 109.4 Operating profit before working capital changes646.4 703.0 797.3
Non - current liabilities 11087.6 10809.0 10427.2 Movement in working capital
Borrowings 677.8 677.8 643.6 Increase/(decrease) in trade payables (44.3) 35.4 (29.5)
Trade payables 7.6 43.0 13.4 Increase/(decrease) in other liabilities 9.8 0.6 (10.9)
Other financial liabilities 383.8 421.0 545.4 Increase/(decrease) in other financial liabilities (139.3) (163.9) (152.1)
Other current liabilities 12.9 13.9 3.0 Increase/(decrease) in provisions 0.2 43.8 35.8
Provisions 0.2 0.1 0.1 Decrease/(increase) in trade receivables (0.7) 0.8 0.7
Current tax liabilities 3.8 3.3 1.4 Decrease/(increase) in financials assets-loans (4.0) (129.9) (70.2)
Current liabilities 1086.1 1159.0 1206.9 Decrease/(increase) in others financial assets 18.0 3.0 1.9
Total Liability 14196.5 13872.7 13462.3 Decrease/(increase) in others assets 139.5 8.3 (4.2)
Fixed Asset 13047.0 13466.3 13940.6 Cash generated from / (used in) operations 625.6 501.1 568.7
Deferred tax assets 44.8 49.2 36.7 Direct taxes paid (net of refunds) 0.8 1.3 7.6
Other non-current assets 3.0 1.1 0.5 Net cash flows from operating activities 624.9 499.8 561.1
Total Non-current assets 13094.8 13516.6 13977.9 Net cash flows from investing activities (454.0) (26.6) (37.2)
Trade receivables 20.4 17.8 14.8 Net cash flows from financing activities (271.8) (463.3) (548.3)
Cash and cash equivalents 173.8 180.8 160.6 Net increase/(decrease) in cash (100.9) 9.9 (24.5)
Loans 0.1 125.3 190.4 Cash at the beginning of the year 173.5 72.5 82.4
Current tax assets 3.5 2.2 3.2 Cash at the end of the year 725.4 824.0 579.4
Other current assets 10.7 4.3 9.0
Total asset 13303.2 13846.9 14355.9
RoE
The company reported 2.4% overall volume growth for this quarter.
Considering subdued International business growth which contributes
ROE
approx. 25% of companys total revenue and expectation of contraction in
45%
margin going forward on the back of higher A&P expenses we are Neutral
40%
38% 36%
34% on this stock.
35% 32%
30%
30% 26%
25%
20%
15%
Financials/Valu FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E
10%
5%
ation
Net Sales 7,827 7,869 7,701 8,615 9,808
0% EBITDA 1,316 1,518 1,509 1,612 1,845
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
EBIT 1,201 1,385 1,366 1,833 2,117
Shareholding patterns % PAT 1,066 1,251 1,277 1,411 1,639
4QFY17 3QFY17 2QFY17 EPS (Rs) 6 7 7 8 9
Promoters 68 68 68 EPS growth (%) 16% 17% 2% 11% 16%
Public 32 32 32 ROE (%) 32% 30% 26% 26% 26%
Total 100 100 100 ROCE (%) 34% 31% 26% 23% 24%
BV 19 24 28 32 38
Stock Performance % P/B (X) 10.2 11.6 10.3 8.8 7.5
1Mn 3Mn 1Yr P/E (x) 32.0 38.8 39.3 35.5 30.6
Absolute 2.5 2.9 5.5
Rel.to Nifty 1.0 (4.0) (13.2) RESULT REVIEW:
125 DABUR NIFTY DABURs result for Q4FY17 is below than our expectations. Sales
120 declined by 5% YoY to Rs 1915 cr from Rs 2010 cr.
115
Gross margin declined by 163 bps YoY to 49% due to increase in material
110
105 costs and adverse currency impact.
100 EBITDA margin improved by 115 bps YoY to 21.8% from 20.7% led by
95 lower employee, A&P and Other expenses.
90
85 PAT margin improved by 91 bps YoY 17.4% from 16.5%.
80
DABURs PAT for this quarter remained flat. Reported PAT of Rs 333 cr
(Vs Rs 331 cr in Q4FY16).
RAJEEV ANAND
rajeev.anand@narnolia.com
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report
Narnolia Securities Ltd
Quarterly Performance
Financials 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 YoY % QoQ% FY16 FY17 YoY %
Net Sales 2,010 1,928 1,981 1,853 1,915 -5% 3% 7,869 7,701 -2%
Other Income 54 61 89 83 65 21% -22% 217 298 37%
COGS 992 938 967 938 976 -2% 4% 3,850 3,843 0%
Ad & P Expenses 157 197 149 177 123 -21% -31%
Employee Cost 202 212 216 189 173 -14% -9% 794 790 -1%
Other Expenses 245 234 240 214 225 -8% 5% 1,707 1,560 -9%
EBITDA 415 349 408 334 418 1% 25% 1,518 1,509 -1%
Depreciation 36 34 36 33 40 11% 19% 133 143 7%
Interest 13 12 17 14 12 -12% -16% 48 54 11%
PBT 420 364 445 370 431 3% 17% 1,554 1,610 4%
Tax 87 70 87 75 98 13% 30% 300 330 10%
PAT 331 293 357 294 333 0% 13% 1,251 1,277 2%
International
business Expect subdued growth due to pressure on International Business going forward.
declined by
4.5% in cc term. International business declined by 4.5% in constant currency terms led by currency devaluation in
Egypt, Turkey and Nigeria and Macro economic slowdown in MENA region.
Severe currency devaluation of ~55% in Egyptian Pound, ~20% in LIRA and ~36% in Naira led to
translation loss in the international business
Local currency growth for Egypt remained 19% while Nepal and Turkey recorded local currency
growth of 16% in Q4FY17.
Bangladesh recorded local currency growth of 2% in Q4FY17.
The company is facing headwinds in Saudi & UAE market. We expect it to remain for at least one
year. Although company has indicated that market shares in most categories & countries remained
stable to increasing but we remain bearish on overall International business considering slower
MENA region growth going forward.
Contribution from International business in total revenue declined from 34% to 25%.
Others, 3% Others, 4%
International,
International, 25%
34%
Domestic
FMCG, 63% Domestic
FMCG, 71%
Gross margin declined by 168 bps YoY and 34 bps QoQ led by increase in material costs and adverse
currency impact.
EBITDA margin improved by 115 bps YoY and 379 bps QoQ on the back of lower employee expense
(down by 100bps) ,AD&P expense (down by 136 bps) and Other expense(down by 42 bps).
PAT margin improved by 91 bps YoY and 154 bps QoQ in Q4FY17.
1930
1950
1959
1972
1928
1981
1853
1915
2079
1907
2010
1700 0
Concall Highlights(Q4FY17):
Translation loss Rural market is showing signs of revival.
remained Rs 79 New Launches: Red Gel Toothpaste Launched, Dabur Woman Restorative Tonic.
cr in Q4FY17. Media Spend: Expects sharp increase especially 2nd half of FY18.
International business: Translation loss remained Rs 79 Cr in Q4FY17.
If tax differential will be less in GST than chances of de-stocking will be less.
Secondary sales is much higher than primary sales in this quarter.
The company will curtail its promotions sharply going forward in FY18.
Tax rate: Under MAT for some more time.
Tezpur plant: Tezpur plant commissioned in March17.Excise duty benefit and 80i benefits will
remain for next 10 years.
Market share in toothpaste segment increased by 100 bps yoy.
Dabur gained volume market share by 70bps in Air fresheners and 100 bps in Mosquito
Repellant Creams YOY.
International business: Pressure in MENA region will remain for whole year.
Pricing action: The Company will take price hike only to maintain margin.
OTC remained subdued.
The company has inventory of 6-8 months of low priced raw honey. Company will not increase
prices in Q1FY18.
4% 10%
2%
0%
0%
16.0%
15.2%
14.0%
13.7% 13.6%
12.7%
12.0%
11.3%
Financials/Valu FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E
10.0% 9.7% ation
Net Sales 3,090 3,347 3,891 5,026 5,964
8.0% EBITDA 564 636 851 1,148 1,363
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E
EBIT 343 387 574 604 793
Share Holding patterns % PAT 497 550 612 512 653
4QFY17 3QFY17 2QFY17 EPS (Rs) 25 28 31 26 33
Promoters 60.7 60.7 60.7 EPS growth (%) 20% 11% 11% -16% 27%
Public 37.2 37.2 37.2 ROE (%) 15% 14% 13% 10% 11%
Others 1.8 1.8 1.8 ROCE (%) 8% 6% 8% 8% 9%
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 BV 3,271 4,034 4,838 5,253 5,782
Stock Performance % P/B (X) 2.9 2.4 4.6 4.2 3.8
1Mn 3Mn 1Yr P/E (x) 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0
Absolute (3.7) 8.5 93.5
Rel.to Nifty (5.4) 0.7 76.9 RECENT DEVELOPMENT:
Mylan got a nod for breast cancer tablets -Exemestane tablets. U.S. sales
200
BIOCON NIFTY of approximately $100 million for the 12 months ending Jan. 31, 2017,
180 according to IMS Health
160 US FDA accepts Biocon-Mylan biosimilar application for proposed anti-
cancer bio-similar. The market size of Trastuzumab injection is valued at
140
about $6.5 billion, according to IMS data
120
Biocon has partnered with Japanese drug firm Eisai Pharma to market the
100
latter's anti-ulcer drug rabeprazole in India.Market size for rabeprazole and
rabeprazole-D is roughly Rs 950 crore in India
80
Mylan has inked a settlement pack with Genentech and Roche in relation
Jul-16
Sep-16
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
May-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Apr-16
Apr-17
Mar-17
Gross Margin contracted by 100bps YoY and 400bps QoQ due to higher purchase of stock in trade
and cost of material consumed.
EBITDA degrew by 8%YoY to Rs.188 crore. EBITDA Margin also declined by 130bps YoY to 20.1%
on account of higher employee cost.
PAT degrew by 61%YoY to Rs.128 crore. In 4QFY16, there was an exceptional item of Rs. 268 Cr.
which has inflated profit in 4QFY16.
14%
333
13%
240
205
188
185
185
100 10%
169
160
202
100 10%
171
167
147
128
126
50 5%
104
50 5%
91
-1%
0 0% 0 0%
-11
-50 -5%
Investment Arguments:
Delay in Copaxone approval: Biocon has received queries from the USFDA relating to its ANDA for
generic Copaxone 20 mg and 40mg. The company is yet to respond to these queries
Discontinuance of Ambraxane: Biocon has discontinued Ambraxane drug from its portfolio which is a
major set back for the company.
Waiting for EMA Nod:Marketing Authorization application for Bio-similar Trastuzumab, pegfilgrastim
and insulin Glargine were accepted by European Medical agency for review. Company is still waiting
for approval which usually takes 12-18 months.
Commercialization of Malaysian facility : The facility manufactures the Drug Substance for Biocons
range of rh-insulin and insulin analogs as well as Drug Products in vials, cartridges and devices. This
facility supplies drug to the US market.This facility has been set up at an investment of over USD 250
million
Biocon has discontinued drug Ambraxane from Indian and European markets which impacted
4QFY17s sales. On-going pricing pressure in US market and rupee appreciation are key concerns for
the company going forward. In last Dec. 2016, fire broke out at one of its facilities has adversely
impacted the EBITDA margin of the company by 130bps. Commercial sales of Insulin to US from
Malaysian facility has started but we do not have any clarity on the revenue front in this quarter. We do
not expect any sharp improvement in revenue in near term. Currently, the stock is trading at 4.74x
FY17 P/BV. Considering the growth un-certainities in near term, we maintain Neutral rating in this
stock.
10%
5%
Financials/Valu FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E
ation
Net Sales 50,801 57,589 68,085 71,496 79,796
0%
EBITDA 6,844 8,768 10,358 10,848 12,231
EBIT 4,329 5,947 7,754 7,878 9,621
Share Holding patterns % PAT 3,807 5,377 7,511 7,449 9,188
4QFY17 3QFY17 2QFY17 EPS (Rs) 126 178 249 247 304
Promoters 56.2 56.2 56.2 EPS growth (%) 33% 41% 40% -1% 23%
Public 43.8 43.8 43.8 ROE (%) 16% 19% 20% 18% 19%
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 ROCE (%) 18% 21% 21% 19% 20%
BV 805 919 1,227 1,384 1,598
Stock Performance % P/B (X) 4.6 4.0 5.2 4.6 4.0
1Mn 3Mn 1Yr P/E (x) 29.3 20.9 25.6 25.8 20.9
Absolute 6.6 7.6 64.7
Rel.to Nifty 4.0 (0.5) 47.3 RECENT DEVELOPMENT: Commencement of Gujarat Plant
170
MARUTI NIFTY Gujarat plant has started production of first phase from February 2017
160 with total capacity of 250000 units per annum and initially, it will produce
150 20,000 units per month.
140 Suzuki Motor Corporation had plans to spent around Rs.8500 crore on the
130 Gujarat plant. The plant will become operational in three phases.
120 Suzuki Motor Corporation will sell the production on cost to Maruti once its
110 gets completed.
100 Baleno will be first model to be produced and later on depending on the
90 demand scenario other models can also be produced from same
80 plateform.
The plant will take care of new models and exports. It will also reduce the
Jul-16
Sep-16
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
May-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Apr-16
Apr-17
Mar-17
Maruti reported results in line with our estimates. Net sales stood at Rs.18333 crore in 4QFY17 a
Utility Vehicles growth of 20% over same quarter previous year. This was driven by 15% volume growth and 4.5%
volume grew by realization growth YoY.
72% Domestic volumes grew by 15%YoY to 382618 units during 4QFY17. Compact segment saw a
growth of 21% and utility vehicle segment grew by 72% YoY during the quarter. Fast growing UV
and Compact segment demand is driven by Vitara Brezza and Baleno. These two models enjoys a
waiting period of 5 and 7 months waiting period respectively.
Exports volumes have seen growth of 18%YoY backed by exposure in the new geographies and
increase in the Baleno volumes exported to Japan.
Realization improved by 4.6%YoY to Rs.442000 per car on account of better product mix and price
increases taken during the quarter.
Royalty rate for the quarter stood at Rs.948 crore.
Volume (in No.) Growth YoY Realization (Rs./car) Realization Growth (QoQ)
424,373
428,400
426,382
435,500
379,138
382,216
388,243
392,973
393,313
392,013
1%
299,894
323,911
346,712
341,329
353,335
360,402
348,443
418,470
387,251
321,898
374,182
414,389
442420
100,000 4% 360,000
50,000 2% 350,000 0%
- 0% 340,000 -1%
Gross Margin contracted by 360bps YoY and 40bps QoQ due to increasing commodity prices and
higher discounts on the mini segment cars during the quarter.
EBITDA Margin also declined by 130bps YoY to 13.9% on account of higher marketing and
promotional expenses. New launches and Ciaz movement to Nexa also led to increase in the other
expenses.
PAT grew by 15.8%YoY to Rs.1709 crore on account of higher other income. PAT margin declined by
40bps YoY and 100bps QoQ in 4QFY17.
EBITDA (Rs. Crore) EBITDA Margin PAT (Rs. Crore) PAT Margin
17%
3,500 16% 16% 16% 18% 3,000 16%
15% 15% 15% 13%
3,000
14% 14% 16% 14%
12% 13%
2,500
12% 14% 11%
10% 10% 10% 12%
2,500 9% 9%
12% 2,000 9%
8% 10%
2,000 10% 7% 7%
1,500 6% 8%
1,500 8%
6%
6% 1,000
1,000
1,284
1,193
1,497
1,183
1,538
1,486
2,398
1,745
1,709
4%
4%
762
863
802
500
1,328
1,521
2,164
2,189
2,245
2,339
2,216
2,489
2,549
1,593
2,145
3,037
500 2%
2%
- 0% - 0%
Concall Highlights:
Confident of double digit growth in next fiscal.
Confident of
The management do not see any kind of slow down in demand for next financial year.
double digit
Exports Revenue in FY17 stood at Rs. 6000 crore.
volume growth
in domestic The company will maintain its market share going forward.
market. Capex plan-Rs.4500 crore; large chunk of it would be for new models and rest is for R&D expenses
and maintenance of old plants.
Gujarat plant started production in 4QFY17 and initially, it will produce 20,000 units per month.
Management expects that the industry is going to benefit hugely from GST.
Maruti have been working with its suppliers and dealers to make sure that they are absolutely ready
for GST.
The company has asked its vendors to work with their tier II and tier III suppliers to make sure that
they also become GST compliant by July 1.
Increasing Annual Budget on Old Plants- Plants and machineries at Gurugram and Manesar plants
more than 25 years older so the maintenance cost of these plants are high and the manegement has
stated that the capex would be 800 crore for FY18 but it may go up going ahead.
International market to remain subdued- Maruti is facing challenges in establishing its footprint in
the exports. Africa market is facing dollar availability issue from last one and half years and Another
big market for Maruti was Sri-Lanka where the government has changed the duty structure. Japan and
Europe are the two markets where Maruti is exporting significant volumes.
New Launches by rivals in the premium segment- Maruti has taken the benefit of selling preimium
segment cars as a market leader in the Indian market but going forward competitors like Tata Motors,
Honda and Ford will share the pie with Maruti. These companies have been started spending huge
amount on R&D to take advantage of future demand.
Reducing dependency on Yen to improve profitability- Maruti is also aggressively working towards
bringing down the import content in its cars from an average 16% at the end of FY16 to 10% as part of
its vision 2.0 plan. Currently about 14 percent of imports are yen denominated. Management expects
to bring it down to 5 percent and typically, 1% movement in yen leads to around 1% change in the
operating profit of Maruti. The company also have rupee denominated Royalty contracts with the
parent Suzuki Motors for new models.
1510000
1510000
1650000
1760000
1260000
1510000
400000 20%
20% 31% 31% 30% 30% 27% 27% 27% 25% 200000
0% 0 0%
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