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JACK A. GOLDSTONE
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Journal of International Affairs, Fall 2002, vol. 56, no. 1. The Trustees of
Columbia University in the City of New York.
Population and Security
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Notes
i
United States Bureau of the Census, World Population Profile 1998. Report
WP/98 (Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office, 1999) p. 11.
ii
Ibid., p. 12
iii
Thomas Homer-Dixon, On the Threshold: Environmental Changes as
Causes of Acute Conflict, International Security 16 (1991) pp. 76116.
iv
Paul Diehl, Environmental Conflict: An Introduction, Journal of Peace
Research 35 (1998) pp. 275276.
v
Daniel Deudney, The Case Against Linking Environmental Degradation and
National Security, Millennium 19 (1990) pp. 461476. Marc A. Levy, Is the
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xvi
Ted Robert Gurr, Handbook of Political Conflict (New York: Free Press,
1980). Jack A. Goldstone, ed., The Encyclopedia of Political Revolutions
(Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly, 1998) and Revolutions:
Theoretical, Comparative, Historical, and Historical Studies, 3rd ed. (Ft.
Worth: Wadsworth, 2002).
xvii
John Foran, ed., Theorizing Revolutions (London: Routledge, 1997); and
Goldstone, ed. (1998).
xviii
Valerie Percival and Thomas Homer-Dixon, The Case of South Africa,
Journal of Peace Research 35 (1998) pp. 279298; and Colin Kahl,
Population Growth, Environmental Degradation, and State-Sponsored
Violence: The Case of Kenya, 19911993, International Security 23 (1998)
pp. 80119.
xix
Alex de Sherbinen, World Population Growth and US National Security,
Environmental Change and Security Project Report of the Woodrow Wilson
Center 1 (1995) pp. 2429.
xx
Joseph Whitmeyer and Rosemary L. Hopcroft, Community, Capitalism, and
Rebellion in Chiapas, Sociological Perspectives 39, no. 4 (1996) pp. 517539.
xxi
Goldstone (1991); Goldstone, ed. (2002).
xxii
Ellen Brennan, Population, Urbanization, Environment, and Security: A
Summary of the Issues, Comparative Urban Studies Occasional Paper Series
no. 22 (Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars,
1999).
xxiii
Esty et al. (1998) p. 15.
xxiv
William Doyle, The Price of Offices in Pre-Revolutionary France,
Historical Journal 27 (1984) pp. 831860. Lenore OBoyle, The Problem of
an Excess of Educated Men in Western Europe, 18001850, Journal of
Modern History 42 (1970) pp. 471495. Goldstone (1991) and The Soviet
Union: Revolution and Transformation, in Mattei Dogan and John Higley,
eds., Elites, Crises, and the Origins of Regimes (Lanham, MD: Rowman and
Littlefield, 1998) pp. 95124.
xxv
Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations, and the Remaking of
World Order (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1996).
xxvi
Paul Collier, Doing Well Out of War: An Economic Perspective, in Mats
Berdal and David M. Malone, eds., Greed and Grievance (Boulder, CO: Lynne
Rienner, 2000) pp. 91111.
xxvii
Herbert Moller, Youth as a Force in the Modern World, Comparative
Studies in Society and History 10 (1968) pp. 238260; Goldstone (1991).
xxviii
Christian G. Mesquida and Neil I. Weiner, Male Age Composition and
Severity of Conflicts, Politics and the Life Sciences 18 (1999) pp. 113117.
xxix
Henrik Urdal, Population Pressure and Domestic Conflict: Assessing the
Role of Youth Bulges in the Onset of Conflict 19502000; paper presented
at the Fourth Pan-European International Relations Conference, University of
Kent (Canterbury, 810 Sept. 2001).
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xxx
David Laitin and James Fearon, Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War,
American Political Science Review (Forthcoming); Nicholas Sambanis, Do
Ethnic and Nonethnic Civil Wars Have the Same Causes? Journal of Conflict
Resolution 45 (2001) pp. 259282; Steven C. Poe and C. Neal Tate,
Repression of Human Rights to Personal Integrity in the 1980s: A Global
Analysis, American Political Science Review 88 (1994) pp. 853872; Poe,
Tate and L.C. Keith, Repression of the Human Right to Personal Integrity
Revisited: A Global Cross-national Study Covering the Years 19761993,
International Studies Quarterly 43 (1999) pp. 291313.
xxxi
Conway Henderson, Population Pressures and Political Repression, Social
Science Quarterly 74 (1993) pp. 322333.
xxxii
Nathaniel Beck, Time-SeriesCross-Section Data: What Have We
Learned in the Past Few Years, Annual Review of Political Science 4 (2001)
pp. 271293; Beck, Jonathan N. Katz and Richard Tucker, Taking Time
Seriously: Time-SeriesCross Section Analysis with a Binary Dependent
Variable, American Journal of Political Science 42 (1998) pp. 12601288.
Kristian S. Gleditsch and Michael D. Ward, War and Peace in Space and
Time: The Rold of Democratization, International Studies Quarterly (2000)
pp. 129; Goldstone, The Case for Case Control: Substantive Issues in the
Study of Rare and Calamitous Events (manuscript, University of California,
Davis, 2002); Donald Green, Soo Yeon Kim, and David Yoon, Dirty Pool,
International Organization 55 (2001) pp. 441468; Gary King and Langche
Zeng, Logistic Regression in Rare Events Data, Political Analysis 9 (2001)
pp. 135163.
xxxiii
Esty et al (1998).
xxxiv
Beck, Gary King and Langche Zeng, Improving Quantitative Studies of
International Conflict: A Conjecture, American Political Science Review 94
(2000) pp. 2135.
xxxv
Charles Ragin, Fuzzy-Set Social Science (Chicago: University of Chicago
Press, 2000).
xxxvi
Myron Weiner and Sharon Stanton Russell, Demography and National
Security (Providence, RI: Berghahn, 2000).
xxxvii
Michael S. Teitelbaum and Jay Winters, A Question of Numbers: High
Migration, Low Fertility, and the Politics of National Identity (New York: Hill
and Wang/Farrar, Straus & Giroux, 1998).
xxxviii
David Lane, The Gorbachev Revolution: The Role of the Political Elite in
Regime Disintegration, Political Studies 44 (1996) pp. 423; Michael Urban,
Vyacheslav Igrunov and Sergei Mitrokhin, The Rebirth of Politics in Russia
(Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997); Michael McFaul, Russias
Unfinished Revolution: Political Change from Gorbachev to Putin (Ithaca, NY:
Cornell University Press, 2001).
xxxix
World Bank, World Development Indicators 1997 (CD-ROM, 1998).
xl
Ibid.
xli
Esty et al. (1995, 1998).
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xlii
Urdal (2001).
xliii
Nicholas Eberstadt, The Poverty of Communism (New Brunswick, NJ:
Transaction Books, 1988).
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