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Matias D. Cattaneo
University of Michigan
I Sim ple and ob jective. Requires little inform ation, if design available.
I M ight b e viewed as a lo cal random ized trial.
I Easy to falsify, easy to interpret.
I C areful: very local!
Overview of RD packages
https://sites.google.com/site/rdpackages
Experimental Design.
Sharp RD design
SRD = E[Yi (1) Yi (0)jXi = x] = lim E[Yi jXi = x] lim E[Yi jXi = x]
x#x x"x
0
1
0
1
2
0
1
0
1
2
0
1
0
1
2
0
0
2
Data:
Yi = election outcome.
Ti = whether incumbent.
Xi = vote share previous election (x = 0).
Zi = covariates (demvoteshlag1, demvoteshlag2, dopen, etc.).
Potential outcomes:
Yi (0) = election outcome if had not been incumbent.
Yi (1) = election outcome if had been incumbent.
Causal Inference:
Yi (0) 6= Yi jTi = 0 and Yi (1) 6= Yi jTi = 1
Graphical and Falsication Methods
Plot density of Xi for assessing validity; test for continuity at cuto and elsewhere.
I Two ingredients: (i) Sm o othed global p olynom ial t & (ii) binned discontinuous
lo cal-m eans t.
I Two goals: (i) detention of discontinuities, & (ii) representation of variability.
I Two tuning param eters:
F G lo b a l p o ly n o m ia l d e g re e (kn ).
F L o c a tio n (E S o r Q S ) a n d nu m b e r o f b in s (Jn ).
Manipulation Tests & Covariate Balance and Placebo Tests
I Idea: distribution of running variable should b e sim ilar at either side of cuto.
F P re -b in n e d lo c a l p o ly n o m ia l m e th o d M c C ra ry (2 0 0 8 ).
F N e w tu n in g -p a ra m e te r-fre e m e th o d C a tta n e o , J a n sso n a n d M a (2 0 1 5 ).
I Idea: zero RD treatm ent eect for outcom e at values other than cuto.
I M ethods: global p olynom ial, lo cal p olynom ial, random ization-based.
Estimation and Inference Methods
I Bandwidth selection.
I Bias-correction.
I Condence intervals.
I W indow selection.
Idea: approximate regression functions for control and treatment units locally.
hn Xi < x : x Xi hn :
^ IK = C
h ^IK n 1=5
^ CCT = C
h ^CCT n 1=5
" Bias(^SRD ) =) ^
#h and " Var(^SRD ) =) ^
"h
Local-Polynomial Methods: Bandwidth Selection
Two main methods: plug-in & cross-validation. Both MSE-optimal in some sense.
I They dier in the way Var(^ SRD ) and Bias(^ SRD ) are estim ated.
where
I ^ +;p (x; h) and ^ are lo cal p olynom ials estim ates.
;p (x; h)
I 2 (0; 1), X and X+;[ denote -th quantile of fXi : Xi < xg and fXi : Xi xg.
;[ ] ]
I Our im plem entation uses = 0:5; but this is a tuning param eter!
Conventional Approach to RD
hn Xi < x : x Xi hn :
^SRD ^+ ^
T^(hn ) = p = q d N (0; 1)
V^n ^ ^
V+;n + V ;n
^SRD
T^(hMSE ) = p d N (B; 1) 6= N (0; 1), B>0
V^n
^ n = 0:5 h
Undersmoothing/Small Bias Approach: Choose smaller hn ... Perhaps h ^ IK ?
Bias-correction Approach:
^SRD B^n
T^bc (hn ; bn ) = p d N (0; 1)
^n
V
h p i
=) 95% Condence Interval: I^bc (hn ; bn ) = ^SRD ^n
B 1:96 ^n
V
Robust approach:
3 Do sensitivity analysis.
See Cattaneo, Titiunik and Vazquez-Bare (2015) for further results and
implementation.