Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Handling Uncertainty
21,600 Unique
Sandwiches!
Make to Order
Make to Stock
Engineer to Order
By Jimmy John's Franchise, LLC http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e3/Jimmy_John_employees_having_fun_making_sandwiches.jpg
By U.S. Department of Agriculture (20111012-FNCS-LSC-0242) [CC-BY-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/06/20111012-FNCS-LSC-0242_-_Flickr_-_USDAgov.jpg
Pull
n Execution is performed in response to an order
n Demand is actual and known with certainty
n Reactive process based on actual need/demand
One-of-a-Kind Dagwood
By U.S. Department of Agriculture (20111012-FNCS-LSC-0195) [CC-BY-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikim
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3A20111012-FNCS-LSC-0195_-_Flickr_-_USDAgov.jpg
By pdphoto.org (pdphoto.org) [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ASandwich.jpg
"Dagwood" by EncycloPetey - Own work. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons
CTL.SC1x - Supply Chain and Logistics Fundamentals Lesson: Key concepts 6
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Dagwood.JPG#mediaviewer/File:Dagwood.JPG
Push vs Pull Processes
What about pure systems?
n Pure push leads to higher inventory levels and potential spoilage /
imbalance but faster cycle time
n Pure pull very rare
Mixed systems are common Where is the Push-Pull Point?
n Push undifferentiated, raw product or components
n Pull finished product
Benefits of mixed systems
n Allows for efficient mass customization (Postponement)
n Allows for pooling of products aggregating demand
Key Principles
n Maximize external variety with minimal internal variety
n Keep in-process inventory as Raw as Possible (RAP)
c
c
Summer
c
Fulfillment
c
Center
Distribution
Center
Winter Fulfillment c
c
Center
c
c c
90%
80%
70%
Percent of Sales Volume
60%
50%
40%
144
30%
20%
10%
144 144
144
0%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Percent of SKUs
100%
90%
80%
70%
Percent of Items Sold
60%
y = 1.1245x0.3784
50% 2
R = 0.9717
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Percent of Products
100%#
90%#
3% of volume is handled
80%#
by 43% of the lanes!
70%#
Percent'of'Total'Volume'(Shipments)'
60%#
50%#
Very few traffic lanes account
40%# 50% of volume is handled for the vast majority of
by 3% of the lanes! truckload movements.
30%#
20%#
10%#
0%#
0%# 10%# 20%# 30%# 40%# 50%# 60%# 70%# 80%# 90%# 100%#
Percent'of'Total'Lanes'(5'digit'postal'code'to'5'digit'postal'code)'
Fundamental Insight
Distribution of many phenomena across a
population follow a Power Law relationship
CTL.SC1x - Supply Chain and Logistics Fundamentals Lesson: Key concepts 17
ABC Analysis
100%
90%
Percent of Annual Value
80%
70% C
60% Items
50% B
40% Items
30%
A
20%
Items
10%
0%
%
%
5%
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
Percent of SKUs
H
Demand variability
C B A
Economic value
Volatile: Sophisticated techniques; frequent reviews
Functional Innovative
Demand Predictable Unpredictable
Life Cycle Long > 2 yrs Short <1 yr
Margin 5% to 20% 20% to 60%
Variety Low (10-20) High
Error at Production ~10% ~40-100%
Avg Stockout Rates 1% to 2% 10% to 40%
Forced Mark down 0% 10% - 25%
Lead time for MTO 6 mon to 1 yr 1 day to 2 wks
Supply Chain Objective Efficiency Match Supply & Demand
Source: Fisher, M. (1997) What Is the Right Supply Chain for Your Product?, Harvard Business Review. Adapted from Sheffi (2010) ESD.260 Course Notes
By Balougador (Own work) [GFDL (http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html) or CC-BY-SA-3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/)], http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ACampbellsModi
By (Own work) [GPL (http://www.gnu.org/licenses/gpl.html), GFDL (http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html) or CC-BY-SA-3.0-2.5-2.0-1.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)],
CTL.SC1x - Supply Chain and Logistics Fundamentals
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ASmart_phone.jpg Lesson: Key concepts 25
Supply Chain Portfolio
Decision variables for SC Design :
(One option is chosen from each column)
Source: Olavsun, Lee, & DeNyse (2010) A Portfolio Approach to Supply Chain Design, Supply Chain Management Review. Adapted from Sheffi (2010) ESD.260 Course Notes
Normal Distribution ( )
f x x0 =
e
2 x2
x 2
Normal ~N(, )
fx(x0)
Spreadsheets
NORMINV(probability,,) =+kx Area = Area =
P[x<+kx] P[x+kx]
NORMDIST(x,,,1) =P[x<+kx]
=1-P[x<+kx]
Unit Normal ~N(0,1)
Transformation: k = (x-)/x
Spreadsheets
x0
NORMSINV(probability) =k +kx
NORMSDIST(k) =P[u<k] x02
15%
10%
5%
0%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Random Variable
"Jack Russell tilting her head" by Writ Keeper - Own work. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike
3.0 http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Jack_Russell_tilting_her_head.jpg