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Example 1:
1. Tossing a fair coin. Success is obtaining a head. X is
the number of heads. Bernoulli p=1/2.
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4.2 Binomial Distribution
Binomial Experiment
1. The experiment consists of a fixed number of identical
Bernoulli trials.
2. Each trial can result in one of only two possible
outcomes called "success" or "failure".
3. The probability of "success" p is constant from trial to
trial.
4. The trials are independent.
Toss 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Outcome
H T H T .... H T
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In general, what is P(X=x), where x is any whole number
between 0 and n?
n
Recall that x (read n choose x) is defined as follows:
n n!
x x !(n x)!
Trial 1 2 3 ... x n
Outcome S S S ... S F F F
By independence of n trials,
n x n
P( X x) p (1 p)
x
x
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Example 3: Obtain P(X=2) for n=3 from the above
formula and compare it with the result in the first example.
Solution:
n x
P( X x) p (1 p)n x ,
x
where x=0, 1, 2,..., n.
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Mean and Variance
Let X be a random variable following a binomial
distribution with the parameters n and p. Then
E(X) = np and Var(X) = np(1-p).
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4.3 The Geometric Distribution
P( X x) (1 p) x1. p
P( X x) (1 p) x1. p
1 1 p
E( X ) , Var ( X ) 2
.
p p
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(a) What is the probability that the first successful
alignment requires exactly four trials?
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Trial 1 2 3 ... x-1 x n
Outcome S F S ... F S F F
x 1 r 1 ( x 1) ( r 1) x 1 r xr
P( X x) p (1 p ) . p p .(1 p)
r 1 r 1
x 1 r xr
P( X x) p .(1 p ) .
r 1
r r (1 p)
E( X ) Var ( X )
p p2
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(a) What is the probability that 4 or more people will have
to be tested before 2 with the gene are detected?
Example: Accidents
Day 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 ...
X 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 ...
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Poisson Process
x
P( X x) e ,
x!
X=0, 1, 2, .
E(X) = Var(X) = .
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Remark: Using Poisson distribution:
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(c) What is the probability that there are exactly 30 calls
in 2 hours?
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