INGENIERIA SISMORRESISTENTE

Fundamentos de Sismologa e Ingenieria Sismolgica

M.I. Jos Velsquez Vargas

Maestra en Ing. Sismorresistente e Ing. Sismolgica (Rose School, Italia)
Terremotos

Terremoto de Pisco (15/08/2007) Terremoto de Hait (12/01/2010)

Terremoto de Chile (27/02/2010) Terremoto de Japn (11/03/2011)

Fuente: Informe de terremotos ocurridos en el mundo - Colegio de Ingenieros del Per

Terremoto de Ecuador (2016)

Terremoto de Manta Mw 7.8 (16/04/2016)

Fuente: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/
 Qu es un terremoto?
Son vibraciones de la corteza terrestre, generadas por distintos fenmenos, como
la actividad volcnica, la cada de techos de cavernas subterrneas y hasta por
explosiones. Sin embargo, los sismos ms severos y ms importantes desde el
punto de vista de la ingeniera, son los de origen tectnico.

Placas que conforman la

corteza terrestre
 SISMICIDAD GL0BAL
Sismicidad global entre 1975-1999 con
terremotos de magnitude mayor a Mw5.5

95% de la energa liberada por terremotos se originan en regiones

estrechas alrededor de la Tierra: estas zona marcan los bordes de
las placas tectnicas
Cinturn de Fuego del Pacfico
Est situado en las costas del ocano Pacfico y se caracteriza por concentrar
algunas de las zonas de subduccin ms importantes del mundo, lo que ocasiona
una intensa actividad ssmica y volcnica en las zonas que abarca.
Con ms de 450 volcanes concentra ms del 75 % de los volcanes activos e
inactivos del mundo. Alrededor del 90 % de los terremotos del mundo y el 80 %
de los terremotos ms grandes del mundo se producen a lo largo del Cinturn de
Fuego.
 Qu es un terremoto?
La presiones que se generan en la corteza por los flujos de magma desde el
interior de la tierra llegan a vencer la friccin que mantienen en contacto los
bordes de las placas y producen cadas de esfuerzo y liberacin de enormes
cantidades de energa almacenada en la roca. La energa se libera
principalmente en forma de ondas vibratorias que se propagan a grandes
distancias a travs de las rocas de la corteza.
 LOS TERREMOTOS
MS GRANDES
DESDE 1900

major eqs 8
 ZS 63 1936-1980
1915-1980
1895-1980
1843-1980
1787-1980
1626-1980

CLCULO DEL PELIGRO SSMICO 10 1501-1980

Numero normalizzato (100 anni)

1300-1980
1000-1980
Scelta

7.0008, 0.18595

0.1

3.7 4 4.3 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.5 5.8 6.1 6.4 6.7 7 7.3 7.6 7.9

Magnitudo

ZS 63 1936-1980
1915-1980
1895-1980
1843-1980
1787-1980
1626-1980
10 1501-1980

Numero normalizzato (100 anni)

1300-1980
1000-1980
Scelta

7.0008, 0.18595

0.1

3.7 4 4.3 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.5 5.8 6.1 6.4 6.7 7 7.3 7.6 7.9

Magnitudo
MAPA DE PELIGRO SSMICO DE PAKISTAN
Movimiento de las placas
Zona de
divergencia
tectnicas
Zona de fallas

Zona de
convergencia
Zona de divergencia
Se generan cuando las placas van en direcciones opuestas, por lo tanto se
separan. Al separarse dejan el camino abierto para que ingrese el magma desde
el centro de la tierra. Como la mayora de las zonas de divergencia estn bajo la
superficie el magma al entrar en contacto con el agua se enfra y genera un
cuerpo slido, una roca.
En esta zona casi no se producen sismos de gran relevancia.
Zona de fallas
Se producen cuando las placas van en direcciones opuestas pero paralelamente,
es decir, se rozan de lado a lado. Producen sismos menores y actividad volcnica
casi nula.
Desde San Francisco (EE. UU.) hasta la pennsula de Baja California en Mxico,
es una zona de falla.
Zona de convergencia
Son zonas en donde dos placas tectnicas se dirigen al mismo lugar, por lo tanto
colisionan, dando lugar a las zonas de subduccin. La placa ms densa
comienza a penetrar debajo de la placa menos pesada, se produce entonces una
zona de contacto directo entre ambas placas que genera gran cantidad de sismos
y actividad volcnica. Generalmente son las placas ocenicas las que se hunden
bajo las placas continentales.
Sismo histrico

Megaterremoto registrado en Chile (Valdivia) el 22/05/1960, con una intensidad de 9.4 en la escala
de Richter. Es considerado el peor terremoto en la historia de la humanidad
 FALLA
Fractura en la roca que desarrolla
un desplazamiento relativo

Falla por
deslizamiento:
el sentido prinicipal del
movimiento en el plano de
falla es horizontal

Falla por inmersin:

el sentido principal del
movimiento en el plano de
falla es vertical

Falla Emerson en California:

Produjo el terremoto de Landers
Fallas por inmersin (dip-slip)
Se producen desplazamientos verticalos a lo largo del plano de
falla.
90 inclinacin es vertical.
Falla norm al : cuando la roca en el lado del plano de la falla
colgante (muro colgante) se desliza hacia abajo
Falla inversa : cuando el muro colgante se desplaza hacia arriba
sobre el muro de apoyo.
Unafalla de em puje es un tipo especial de falla inversa en el
cual el ngulo de inclinacin es pequeo (superficial). Zonas de
subduccin (Cascadia en el Pacfico Noroeste) son zonas de
terremotos con este tipo de fallas

Inversa
Normal
Fallas de
Inmersin

earth & earthquakes 18

FALLA NORMAL: MURO COLGANTE
ABAJO

Plano de falla Source: John S. Shelton

earth & earthquakes 19
FALLAS
NORMALES
REVERSE FAULTS

earth & earthquakes 21

 Origen de los
terremotos
Posicin original
SIN DEFORMACIN

Almacenamiento de energa
DEFORMACIN PROGRESIVA

Ruptura con emisin de energa

: TERREMOTOR
DESPLAZAMIENTO PERMANENTE
 Teora del Rebote Elstico
Luego del terremoto de San Francisco en 1906 (California), una huella de
falla fue descubierta que tena un recorrido en lnea recta de 430 km. El
desplazamiento relativo de la Tierra en un lado con respecto al otro de la
falla fue de 7 m.

Harry Fielding Reid postul que las

fuerzas que causan los terremotos
estn muy distantes de la fuente del
terremoto. El terremoto es el resultado
del rebote elstico de la energa de
deformacin almacenada en las rocas a
cada lado de la falla.
 Rebote Elstico
Mecanismo de los terremotos
Las rocas a cada lado de la falla son deformadas
por fuerzas tectnicas.
Las rocas se flexionan y almacenan energa de
deformacin.
La friccin que mantienen unidas a las rocas es
superada por las fuerzas tectnicas.
El deslizamiento se inicia en el punto ms dbil (el
foco)
Los terremotos ocurren mientras la roca
deformada vuelve a su posicin de equilibrio
(rebote elstico)
El movimiento mueve las rocas vecinas y as
sucevisamente
Rplicas

-Elcambio en los esfuerzos

que sigue al movimiento
prinicipal crea terremotos
ms pequeos que se
denominan replicas.

Terremoto y rplicas
Tennessee en 1811/1812

earth & earthquakes 25

 Terremotos en zonas de subduccin
Ejemplo recient: Sumatra Mw9.0 (terremoto y tsunami)

earth & earthquakes 26

 SAN FRANCISCO EARTHQUAKE APRIL 18,
1906
Example of a strike-slip fault
Fault trace 2 miles north of the Skinner Ranch
at Olema. View is north.
earth & earthquakes
Fence offset by the causative fault on ranch of
E.R. Strain, 1 1/2 miles north of Bolinas Lagoon,
looking northeast. The sheer offset is 8 1/2 feet;
the total displacement, shown partly by crooking
of fence, is 11 feet.
27
 ALASKA EARTHQUAKE OF MARCH 27, 1964

Hanning Bay fault scarp on Montague Island,

looking northwest. Vertical displacement in
the foreground, in rock, is about 12 feet. The
maximum measured displacement of 14 feet
is at the beach ridge near the trees in the
background.

Example of a thrust fault

Hanning Bay fault on Montague

Island, looking southwest from the
bay. The fault trace on the ridge is
marked by active landslides.
earth & earthquakes 28
 SAN FERNANDO EARTHQUAKE OF FEBRUARY 9,
1971

Example of a reverse fault

Compression of freeway

Trace of the main reverse fault where it

crosses Little Tujunga Road. By the time
this photograph was taken a dirt ramp at
right had been built up the scarp. The
scarp indicates more than 1-meter
reverse dip-slip movement. The fence
indicates little strike-slip displacement at
this place, which is near the last end of
the line of surface rupture.
earth & earthquakes 29
 MAGNITUD
La magnitud mide la fuerza del sismo.
Es proporcional a la energa elstica liberada por el terremoto.
Se mide en base a la amplitud de onda en el sismograma considerando la
distancia epicentral.
Las escalas ms comunes son:
1) Magnitud original para sismos locales obtenida a partir del
sismmetro de torsion estndar de Wood-Anderson indicado como ML o
MAW de acuerdo con la nomenclatura de Karnik (1976);
2) Magnitud a partir de ondas de cuerpo obtenida usando
instrumentos de perodo corto o perodo largo, para distancias
epicentrales mayores a 1800km, llamada mB si se ha derivado a partir de
perodos largos y mb si se ha derivado a partir de perodos cortos. Se
denominan MPV and M, respectivamente, de acuerdo a la nomenclatura
de Karnik
3) Magnitud a partir de ondas de superficie registrada por
instrumentos de perodo largo, para distancias epicentrales de ms de
2200 km, indicada como MS, o MLH de acuerdo a la nomenclatura de
Karnik.

Tambin hay una magnitude calculada a partir de la duracin del registro o del
movimiento local.
 MAGNITUDE

Kanamori (1977) desarroll una escala de magnitud estndar que es independiente

del tipo de instrumento. Se denomina magnitud momento, indicada con M o MW,
y se calcula a partir del momento ssmico M0.

M0 = Ad

Donde es el modulo de corte de la roca con la falla (alrededor de 3.31010

N/m2), A es el rea de la falla (i.e.: el producto de su longitud por su ancho), y d
es el desplazamiento promedio de la falla (i.e.: deslizamiento el cual es la longitud
del vector de deslizamiento de la ruptura medida en el plano de la falla).
La manera estndar de convertir el momento ssmico a una magnitud (Hanks y
Kanamori, 1979) es:

log M 0
Mw = 10.7
1.5
Donde M0 est en dina-cm.
Magnitud local
El concepto de magnitud fue introducido
por Richter (1935): la magnitud de
cualquier sismo se toma el logaritmo de
la mximo trazo de amplitude con el cual
el sismmetro estndar de torsion
registara un sismo a una distancia
epicentral de 100 km.

Charles F. Richter (1900-1985)

ML = log A log A 0
DURATION MAGNITUDE

There is also a magnitude calculated from the duration of the recording of a

local shock: the equation has to be derived empirically by comparison with
actual ML estimates. Duration magnitude is indicated with MD and the
general relation has the form:

M D = a + blog + c
where is the duration of the signal, computed from the P-wave arrival to
the moment when the earthquake wave amplitude has the same amplitude
as the background noise, is the epicentral distance and a, b, and c are
parameters calculated by regression analysis. In practice, c is very small
indicating a slight dependence of MD on distance.

instrumental seismology 33
 BODY-WAVE MAGNITUDE

The general formula recommended from

the IASPEI's Committee of Zurich 1967
is the following, given by Gutenberg in
1945:

A
m = log max + Q +
T

where A is the maximum true amplitude

and T the period of the used wave, Q is
the Gutenberg-Richter's correction value
for hypocentral depth and distance and
is the station correction obtained by
statistical analysis of the resulting
systematic divergences.

instrumental seismology 34
 SURFACE-WAVE MAGNITUDE

The magnitude from surface waves can also be computed using different waves and
vertical or horizontal components. The most common is the one computed with the
waves of maximum amplitude having period from 10 to 30 seconds. The magnitude
expression, given by Karnik (1962) is:
A
M = log max + 1.66log d + 3.3
T
where A is the maximum true amplitude of the wave used, computed as the square root
of the sum of the squares of the two horizontal components, T is the period and d is the
epicentral distance in degrees.

instrumental seismology 35
 SUMMARY
ABOUT
MAGNITUDES

instrumental seismology 36
COMPARACIN

Mw no se satura
Magnitud e Intensidad de un terremoto

Magnitud: La magnitud de un sismo corresponde a la energa liberada por la

rotura o el desplazamiento de rocas en el interior terrestre. Se mide mediante la escala
de Richter; es una escala objetiva porque se basa en los datos extrados del registro de
sismgrafos.

Intensidad: La intensidad de un sismo corresponde a los efectos producidos por

la accin de las ondas superficiales. Se puede medir mediante la escala MSK o
mediante la escala de Mercalli. Las dos son medidas subjetivas porque dependen de la
apreciacin de las personas
ESCALA RICHTER (Se expresa en nmeros rabes)
Representa la energa ssmica liberada en cada terremoto y se basa en el registro
sismogrfico.
Es una escala que crece en forma potencial o semilogartmica, de manera que cada punto
de aumento puede significar un aumento de energa diez o ms veces mayor. Una magnitud
4 no es el doble de 2, sino que 100 veces mayor.
ESCALA MERCALLI Se expresa en nmeros romanos.
Creada en 1902 por el sismlogo italiano Giusseppe Mercalli, no se basa en los
registros sismogrficos sino en el efecto o dao producido en las estructuras y en la
sensacin percibida por la gente. Para establecer la Intensidad se recurre a la
revisin de registros histricos, entrevistas a la gente, noticias de los diarios pblicos
y personales, etc. La Intensidad puede ser diferente en los diferentes sitios
reportados para un mismo terremoto (la Magnitud Richter, en cambio, es una sola) y
depender de:
a)La energa del terremoto,
b)La distancia de la falla donde se produjo el terremoto,
c)La forma como las ondas llegan al sitio en que se registra (oblicua, perpendicular,
etc,)
d)Las caractersticas geolgicas del material subyacente del sitio donde se registra la
Intensidad y, lo ms importante,
e)Cmo la poblacin sinti o dej registros del terremoto.
ESTIMACIN DEL PELIGRO SSMICO

DSHA
PSHA
Elementos del
PSHA
Mapas
Parmetro de
movimiento

seismic hazard 41
 RIESGO= PELIGRO* VUNERABILIDAD* VALOR

RIESGO= probabilidad de observer cierto estado de dao o prdida de

opercin

PELIGRO= probabilidad de observar cierto movimiento del suelo

(aceleracin, intensidad, etc.)
en un perodo de tiempo fijo

VULNERABILIDAD= tendencia del objeto de studio (edificio, complejo, etc.)

a sufrir daos o modificaciones

VALOR = (econmico, social, etc.) cuantificacin del objeto de estudio

seismic hazard 42
 MODELOS ESTADSTICOS

Determinismo = el proceso ES CONOCIDO

y es possible escribir una ecuacin
Ejemplo: ley de la gravedad s = 1/2 g*t2

Probabilismo = el proceso NO ES CONOCIDO

y es posible aproximarlo a partir de
observaciones
Ejemplo: una encuesta

43
 APPROACHES FOR SHA

SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT

Probabilistic approaches Deterministic approaches

Historical determinism
Reference ground motion

Historical probabilism

Seismotectonic probabilism Detailed scenario

Non-Poissonian probabilism

Eq prediction
Muir Wood (1993)

seismic hazard 44
DETERMINISTIC APPROACH

Select a small number of individual

earthquake scenarios: M, R (Location) pairs
Compute the ground motion for each
scenario (typically use ground motion with
50% or 16% chance of being exceeded if the
selected scenario earthquake occurs
Select the largest ground motion from any of
the scenarios

seismic hazard 45
PROBABILISTIC APPROACH (1)

Source Characterization
Develop a comprehensive set of possible scenario
earthquakes: M, R (location)
Specify the rate at which each scenario earthquake (M, R)
occurs
Ground Motion Characterization
Develop a full range of possible ground motions for each
earthquake scenario (=number of std dev above or below
the median)
Specify the probability of each ground motion for each
scenario

seismic hazard 46
PROBABILISTIC APPROACH (2)

Hazard Calculation
Rank scenarios (M,R, ) in order of decreasing severity of
shaking
Table of scenarios with ground motions and rates
Sum up rates of scenarios (hazard curve)
Select a ground motion for the design hazard level
Back off from worst case ground motion until the sum of the
rates of scenarios exceeding the ground motion is large
enough to warrant consideration (e.g. the design hazard
level)

seismic hazard 47
 STEPS OF THE DETERMINISTIC
APPROACH

1. Identification and characterization of all earthquake

sources capable of producing significant ground
motion at the site.

2. Selection of a source-to-site distance parameter for

each source zone. In most DSHAs, the shortest
distance between the source zone and the site
of interest is selected.

3. Selection of the controlling earthquake (i.e., the

earthquake that is expected to produce the
strongest level of shaking), generally expressed
in terms of some ground motion parameter, at
the site.

4. The hazard at the site is formally defined, usually in

terms of the ground motions produced at the site
by the controlling earthquake. Its characteristics
are usually described by one or more ground
motion parameters obtained from predictive
relationships.

seismic hazard 48
 CALCULO DEL PSHA
SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT

Probabilistic Approaches Deterministic Approaches

Reference Shaking
Historical Determinism Detailed Scenario
Historical Probabilism
Seismotectonic Probabilism
Non-Poissonian Probabilism
Earthquake Prediction

(Muir-Wood, 1993)

seismic hazard 49
 EL PRIMER MAPA DE
PELIGRO SSMICO (?)

Mapa de ocurrencia de terremotos

por Robert Mallet en 1854 50
2ND GENERATION
Gumbel approach (1)
HISTORICAL
PROBABILISM
The Gumbel approach
Given Imax = max Xi, with i=1, , n and n large
Type 1: no upper limit of Xi

P[Imax i] = FIm ax (i) = exp[e (iu) ]

Type 3: upper limit of Xi

P[Imax i] = F Im ax (i) = exp{[(w i) /(w u)]k}

Application
Putting F X (x) = i /(n + 1)
Introducing the reduced variable
y i = ln{ln[ F X (xi)]}
y i = (xi u)

seismic hazard 51
2ND GENERATION HISTORICAL
Gumbel approach (2)
PROBABILISM
Example of the Gumbel approach
Given an eq catalogue, lets take the maximum annual (extreme)
magnitudes and order them x1, x2, , xn: xi xi+1 i
lets assign the annual non exceedence probability:
F X (x) = i /(n + 1)
lets calculate the Gumbel reduced variable:
y i = ln{ ln[ F X (xi )]}
we obtain: y i = (x i u)
lets compute and u by regression analysis:

lets compute the hazard estimates

(e.g.: extreme exceeded with probability p in T years:
y p,T = u {ln[ ln(1 p)] + lnT} /

seismic hazard 52
2ND GENERATION
HISTORICAL The smoothed seismicity approach (1)
PROBABILISM
The smoothed seismicity approach
The hazard computation is based on the number ni of earthquakes
with magnitude greater than Mref in each cell i of a grid: this count
represents the maximum likelihood estimate of 10a for that cell.
The grid of ni values is then smoothed spatially by multiplying by a
Gaussian function with correlation distance c, obtaining :

ne
2 2
ij / c
j
=
j
i
e
2ij / c 2
j

The annual rate (u>u0) of exceeding ground motion u0 at a

specific site is determined from a sum over distance and magnitude
mu
(u > u 0) = i P[u > u 0 | di, mj ] fm(m)dm
1
T i m min
where
1 ln u0 ln u(di ,m j )
P[u > u0 | di, mj] =
2 2

bln10 10b( mm 0 )
fm (m) =
(from Frankel, 1995 and 110b(mu m 0 )
Lapajne et al., 1997)
seismic hazard 53
2ND GENERATION
HISTORICAL
The smoothed seismicity approach (2)
PROBABILISM

Options:
the activity rate can be computed considering different seismicity models;
the b-value and Mmax can vary in space;
different attenuation relations can be used.

Seismicity models:
m0 = 3, low seismicity contributes to define hazard
(activity rates normalized over different Ts
according to the zone)
m0 = 5, only high seismicity contributes to define hazard
(activity rates normalized over different Ts
according to the zone)

seismic hazard 54
2ND GENERATION:
HISTORICAL The smoothed seismicity approach (3)
PROBABILISM
Zonation models
in each zone b-value and Mmax are constant

Average PGA
with T=475 from
zonation models
seismic hazard 55
3RD GENERATION
The 4 steps
SEISMOTECTONIC PROBABILISM
of PSHA

seismic hazard 56
 The Cornell (1968) approach (1)

El enfoque de Cornell (1968)

El teorema de probabilidad total: P[E] = P [E | S]f (s)ds

s
donde f S (s) = F S (s)/ s es el PDF de S

y
F S (s) = P[S < s] es el CDF de S
Promedio anual de Application
tasa de
Modelo de atenuacin
excedencia N mu r=

z = i P(Z > z | m,r) f i(m) f i (r)drdm

mo r= o
i=1
Tasa anual promedio SZ geometry
cada fuente de ocurrencia GR distribution

If it is a Poisson process (stationary, independent, non-multiple events)

P [ZT > z] = 1 e z T
where: T=return period;
T = t /ln(1 P(ZT > z)) t=period of analysis

seismic hazard 57
3RD GENERATION The Cornell (1968) approach (2)
SEISMOTECTONIC PROBABILISM

Working hypotheses of the

Cornell (1968) approach

The eq magnitude is exponentially

distributed
The eq number in time forms a
Poisson process
The seismicity is spatially uniform
inside the seismic sources (faults,
areas, etc.)

(from Algermissen & Perkins, 1976)

seismic hazard 58
3RD GENERATION The Cornell (1968) approach (3)
SEISMOTECTONIC PROBABILISM

a b

c
Contributing information

a = geology, historical & instrumental

seismicity
b = historical & instrumental
seismicity
c = instrumental seismicity for PGA
historical seismicity for intensity
d = statistics
e = statistics d e

(from Algermissen & Perkins, 1976)

seismic hazard 59
3RD GENERATION The Cornell (1968) approach (4)
SEISMOTECTONIC PROBABILISM Gutenberg-Richter law
Uniformely distributed seismicity

The actual steps

in PSHA computation
A) Definition of SZs
B) Seismicity characterisation
Attenuation relation
C) Probability of ground motion
exceedence
D) Probability of ground motion
exceedence in T yrs

(from Algermissen & Perkins, 1976)

Poisson distribution
seismic hazard 60
 SOURCE-TO-
SITE
DISTANCE

Arcs of circles with centers at the

site approximate in Seisrisk III
the area of the quadrilater.

Examples of different earthquake source geometries: a) short fault that can be

modelled as a point source; b) shallow fault that can be modelled as a linear
source; c) 3D source zone modelled as an area source
(from Kramer, 1996) seismic hazard 61
 FR(R)

Variations of source-to-site distance for different source zone geometries. The

shape of the PDF can be visualized by considering the relative portions of the
source zone that would fall between each of a series of circles (or spheres for
3D problems) with equal differences in radius (b)

fL (l)dl = fR (r )dr
dl
fR (r ) = fL (l)
dr
fL (l) = l / Lf
l 2 = r 2 rmin
2

r
fR (r ) =
Many single sources, see (a) Lf r 2 rmin
2

(from Kramer, 1996) seismic hazard 62

 FM(M)
GUTENBERG - RICHTER
LAW

log n m = a bm
m
n m = 0e
Gutenberg-Richter recurrence law: a) meaning of
a and b parameters; b) application of Gutenberg-
n m = 0e (mm 0 ) Richter law to worldwide seismicity data

with m0 = threshold
magnitude
= b ln10 nm0 nm
FM (m) = P[M < m | M > m0 ] = = 1 e (mm 0 )
0 = 10a nm0
d
f M (m) = FM (m) = e (mm 0 )
dm

seismic hazard 63
 FM(M)
BOUNDED GUTENBERG -
RICHTER LAW

exp[ (m m0 )] exp[ (mmax m0 )]

nm =
1 exp[ (mmax m0 )]
1 e (mm 0 )
FM (m) = P[M < m | m0 M mmax ] =
1 e (m max m 0 )
e (mm 0 )
f M (m) =
1 e (m max m 0 )

where =exp(m0) is the rate of

occurrence of earthquakes
exceeding m0
Bounded Gutenberg-Richter recurrence
laws for mo=4 and mmax=6, 7, and 8
constrained by constant seismicity rate

seismic hazard 64
 CHARACTERISTIC
EARTHQUAKE

Youngs & Coppersmith

developed a
generalized
magnitude-frequency
PDF that combined an
exponential magnitude
distribution at lower
magnitudes with a
uniform distribution in
the vicinity of the
characteristic
earthquake.
Comparison of recurrence laws from bounded Gutenberg-Richter and characteristic earthquake
models (from Youngs & Coppersmith, 1985).Inconsistency of mean annual rate of exceedance as
determined from seismicity data and geologic data (from Schwartz and Coppersmith, 1984).
seismic hazard 65
 SEISMIC HAZARD PGA with 10% exceedance
probability over various exposure
times for 14 areas in North
CURVE
The individual components of the Eq are
America

complicated that the integrals cannot be

evaluated analitically: numerical integration is
required
P[E] = P [E | S]f S (s)ds
mu r=

P[Z > z] =
Exceedence
P(Z > z | m,r) f i(m) f i (r)drdm
mo r= o
probability
NS mu r=

z =
Mean annual rate
i P(Z > z | m,r) f i(m) f i (r)drdm
mo r= o
of exceedence i=1
Magnitude and distance ranges are divided into segments
NS N M N R

z = iP(Z > z | m j ,rk ) f M (m j ) f R (rk )mr

i i
i=1 j=1 k=1
NS N M N R

z = iP(Z > z | m j ,rk )P[M = m j ]P[R = rk ] Hazard curve

i=1 j=1 k=1

P [ZT > z] = 1 e z T Poisson model

seismic hazard 66
Hazard curves for 4 bridges in Veneto

ponti del Veneto

1

Fener
exceedence probability in 50 yrs

0.1

Botteon
Peron
0.01

Spresiano

0.001
0.1 PGA 1

seismic hazard 67
MAXIMUM MAGNITUDE

The circles represent actual

earthquake data. The dataset is
complete for small magnitudes, but
becomes erratic for the larger. At
about M=5, there are no records,
simply because the historical record
is usually too short. In some cases
paleoseismology can fill some of the
gap.

seismic hazard 68
THE KIJKO APPROACH (1)

The maximum magnitude mmax is the upper limit of magnitude

for a given seismogenic source

The generic formula for estimation of mmax

seismic hazard 69
THE KIJKO APPROACH (2)

Three cases are possible:

eq magnitudes are distributed according to the G-R relation;
eq magnitude distribution deviates largely from the G-R relation;
no specific model for the eq magnitude distribution is assumed.

seismic hazard 70
THE KIJKO
APPROACH
(3)

e
E1(z ) = z

d

z 2 + 2.334733z + 0.250621
E1(z ) =
z(z 2 + 3.330657z +1.681534)

seismic hazard 71
THE KIJKO
APPROACH (4)

seismic hazard 72
THE KIJKO
APPROACH (3)

seismic hazard 73
THE EARTHQUAKE CYCLE (1)

Some regions repeatedly

experience earthquakes and
this suggests that perhaps
earthquakes are part of a cycle.
The effects of repeated
earthquakes were first noted
late in the nineteenth century
by American geologist G. K.
Gilbert, who observed a fresh
fault scarp following the 1872
Owens Valley, California
earthquake

seismic hazard 74
THE EARTHQUAKE CYCLE (2)

For an ideal elastic-rebound

fault, the stress on the fault
periodically cycles between a
minimum and maximum value
and if the two blocks continue to
move at a constant rate, the
recurrence time (the time
between earthquakes) is also
uniform

seismic hazard 75
THE EARTHQUAKE CYCLE (3)

Unfortunately, actual faults

are more complex: the
recurrence time is not
periodic and we have few
observations of complete
earthquake cycles. In fact,
the Nankaido region of Japan
shows that neither the time
nor the slip is uniform from
earthquake-to-earthquake

seismic hazard 76
 THE GSHAP PROJECT
The Global
(1)
Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) was
launched in 1992 by the International Lithosphere Program (ILP)
with the support of the International Council of Scientific
Unions (ICSU), and endorsed as a demonstration program in the
framework of the United Nations International Decade for
Natural Disaster Reduction (UN/IDNDR). The primary goal of
GSHAP was to create a global seismic hazard map in a harmonized
and regionally coordinated fashion, based on advanced methods
in probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHA). The GSHAP
strategy was to establish Regional Centres which were
responsible for the coordination and realization of the four
basic elements of modern PSHA:
1. Earthquake catalogue
2. Earthquake source characterization
3. Strong seismic ground motion
4. Computation of seismic hazard.

seismic hazard 77
 Seismic hazard map
THE GSHAP PROJECT (2) produced by GSHAP
(Giardini et al., 1999)
http://www.seismo.ethz.ch/GSHAP/index.html

seismic hazard 78
 THE ESC PROJECT (1)

The ESC-SESAME is the first

ever unified model for
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard
Assessment for Europe and
the Mediterranean. It was
developed within the
framework of several recent
projects on global and
regional seismic hazard
assessment and allows for
homogeneous hazard
computation throughout the
whole European-
Mediterranean domain.

seismic hazard 79
seismic hazard 80
THE ESC PROJECT
(3)

Seismic hazard map of the

European Mediterranean
region (Jimenez et al., 2003)
http://wija.ija.csic.es/gt/earthquakes/

seismic hazard 81
 Predictive relationships of the expected ground motion (mainly
PGA) are nearly always obtained empirically by least-squares
regression on a particular set of strong motion parameter data.
Despite attempts to remove questionable data and the use of
quality-based weighting schemes, some amount of scatter in the
data is inevitable. The scatter results from randomness in the
mechanics of rupture and from variability and heterogeneity of the
source, travel path, and site conditions. Scatter in the data can be
quantified by confidence limits or by the standard deviation of the
predicted parameter. Reflecting the form of most predictive
relationships, the standard deviation of the logarithm of the
predicted parameter is usually computed.

ATTENUATION

Schematic illustration of conditional probability of exceeding a particular

value of a ground motion parameter for a given magnitude and distance
seismic hazard 82
 3rd Generation Seismotectonic Probabilism
The Cornell (1968) approach

INGREDIENTS OF PSHA

Seismogenic zonation for source geometry

Earthquake catalogue for seismicity characterisation (rates, Mmax,

recurrence)

Attenuation relations

seismic hazard 83
General framework: Kinematic model of Adria

The SZs are drawn

on the basis
of the slip vector pattern
representing
the kinematic model
of the Adria microplate

seismic hazard 84
 Seismogenic zonation of Italy

Legend:
1. Seismic source zones related to the interaction
between Adria and Europe.
2. Alps/Apennine transfer zones.
3. Seismic source zones related to the sinking
of the Adria lithosphere
and to the uplift of the asthenosphere.
4. Seismic source zones related to the deactivation
of the thrust belt - foredeep system
and to the counterclockwise rotation of Adria.
5. Seismic source zones of the Calabrian Arc.
6. Seismic source zones inside the foreland region
and along the flexural margins.
7. Seismic source zones in active volcanic regions.

Identification: supported by geology,

neotectonics, seismicity
Geometry: controlled by kinematics, seismicity
Behaviour: controlled by kinematics, neotectonics,
intensity maps, fps

seismic hazard 85
(from Slejko et al., 1999)
WHERE IS THE EPICENTER?

1348 Villach

1511 Idrija - Gemona

Doubts remain on the epicenters

of the two strogest events in the
Image from: http://nisee.berkeley.edu/kozak/
Images of Historical Earthquakes

Eastern Alps
The Jan T. Kozak Collection
seismic hazard 86
Fresco of 1361 in St. Mary chapel (Karlstein Castle, Prague)
illustrating the damage caused to the Arnoldstein castle
by the Villach (Austria) earthquake of January 25, 1348
 THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE
INSTRUMENTAL SEISMOLOGY

Fault plane solution

Fault

Hypocentral probability

seismic hazard 87
Map of the historical earthquakes (1000 1980)

Seismogenic zone 10

seismic hazard 88
MAP OF THE PRESENT-DAY SEISMICITY (SINCE 1977)

Principal
faults

seismic hazard 89
 Principal faults
in Friuli - Venezia Giulia

Neotectonic fault
Seismogenic fault

Tectonic scheme for PSHA

seismic hazard 90
 Seismicity characterisation of the SZs

Seismicity rates and maximum magnitude for SZ 4; different time periods are plotted (see legend);
arrows indicate the rates suggested from the completeness analysis, large open squares the selected ones.
The line is the Gutenberg-Richter interpolation, on which the maximum magnitude (Mmax) is evaluated.
seismic hazard 91
Uncertain seismicity characterisation for some SZs
ZS 10 1936-1980
1915-1980
ZS 63 1936-1980
1915-1980 1895-1980
1895-1980 1871-1980
1843-1980 1836-1980
I am fine 1787-1980 1826-1980
1626-1980 10
I am poor 1699-1980

Numero normalizzato (100 anni)

10 1501-1980 1596-1980
Numero normalizzato (100 anni)

1300-1980 1000-1980
1000-1980 Scelte
Scelta

1
1

7.0008, 0.18595
0.1
0.1

3.7 4 4.3 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.5 5.8 6.1 6.4 6.7 7 7.3 7.6 7.9
3.7 4 4.3 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.5 5.8 6.1 6.4 6.7 7 7.3 7.6 7.9
Magnitudo
Magnitudo
ZS 54 1936-1980
ZS 67 1936-1980 1915-1980
1915-1980
1895-1980
1895-1980
1843-1980
1843-1980 I am crazy 1787-1980
1787-1980
1626-1980 1686-1980
10 1626-1980

Numero normalizzato (100 anni)

10 1501-1980
Numero normalizzato (100 anni)

1300-1980 1501-1980
1000-1980 1465-1980
Scelta Scelta

1 1
I am moody

0.1 0.1

3.7 4 4.3 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.5 5.8 6.1 6.4 6.7 7 7.3 7.6 7.9 3.7 4 4.3 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.5 5.8 6.1 6.4 6.7 7 7.3 7.6 7.9
Magnitudo Magnitudo

seismic hazard 92
INFLUENCE OF HISTORICAL AND INSTRUMENTAL SEISMICITY TO HAZARD

100 1

0.9
Number (in 100 yrs)

10 0.8

% PGA
0.7

1 0.6

0.5

0.1 0.4
3.1 3.4 3.7 4 4.3 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.5 5.8 6.1 6.4 3.1 3.4 3.7 4 4.3 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.5 5.8 6.1

Magnitude Threshold magnitude

Seismicity rates seismic hazard Contribution to hazard 93

 PGA attenuation relations

M=6.0

Amb96

S&P87
M=4.5

B&S05

seismic hazard 94
 PGA with a 475-yr return period

Computed considering
seismogenic zones

seismic hazard 95
 Accelerazione orizzontale di picco
con periodo di ritorno 475 anni

calcolata solo con le

faglie sismogenetiche

seismic hazard 96
 Accelerazione orizzontale di picco
con periodo di ritorno 475 anni

calcolata sia con le

faglie sismogenetiche
che con quelle
neotettoniche

seismic hazard 97
Seismogenic zonation for the Eastern Alps

SZs, faults,
historical and instrumental eqs
seismic hazard 98
 Valutazione della pericolosita' sismica
alla scala nazionale
GNDT 1990-1995

Zonazione Revisione Stima

Sismotettonica Catalogo dei Probabilistica
Terremoti moto del suolo

1996
PGA

SORGENTI
AREALI

CATALOGO & MCS

DATABASE
seismic hazard 99
 Gruppo Nazionale per la Difesa dai Terremoti

Seismic Hazard Map of Italy

475-yr return period PGA
on an average soil

In color boxes
(red=rock, blue=stiff soil, green=soft soil):
year, place, magnitude, max recorded PGA,
and number of deaths for recent eqs

Proposal for the seismic zonation 2003

seismic hazard 100

Consensus seismic hazard maps:
basic products for the present national seismic zonation

seismic hazard 101

The most recent
seismic hazard
map of Italy in
agreement with
Ord. 3274

seismic hazard 102

Comparison between results obtained with the Gumbel and Cornell approaches

8
8

8
8

0.22 g = 8 MCS
seismic hazard 103
0.13 g = 7 MCS
The smoothed seismicity approach vs. the Cornell approach

Average PGA with T=475

from the smoothed seismicity appr.

Average PGA with T=475

from the Cornell appr.

Difference
(smoothed seismicity - Cornell)

seismic hazard 104

1 2

From the 3rd to the 4th generation PSHA

Seismic Hazard in Central Italy
475-yr return period PGA

1 - Cornell approach with SZs

2 - Cornell approach with faults
3 - characteristic time-dependent eq on faults
3 seismic hazard 105
 GROUND-MOTION PARAMETERS

SINGLE QUANTITIES
Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA);
Peak Ground Velocity (PGV): better than PGA because it is associated
with kinetic energy, which is proportional to the square of velocity.

COMBINED QUANTITIES (correlated with the damage onset; Benjamin et al., 1988)
Arias Intensity;
Cumulative Absolute Velocity.

SOME OTHER COMBINED QUANTITIES

Effective Peak Acceleration (EPA);
Housner Intensity (SI).

Which is better for seismic design and which for zonation?

seismic hazard 106
 Spectral Quantities

Response Spectrum

PGA

seismic hazard SI is the area of the velocity spectrum

107
 Quantification of seismic hazard

Different SA and PSV at 1 s

Similar PGA

Grumento 50 50

Pseudovelocity (cm/s)
40 40

0.7 0.7 30 30
Absolute acceleration (g)

0.5 0.5

20 20
0.3 0.3

b
10 10
0.1 0.1 0.1 1
Period (s)
0.08 0.08
a
0.06 0.06 Gemona
0.1 Period (s) 1
Grumento is the most hazardous site in Italy
seismic hazard 108
 Different SIs
Spectrum intensity 0.1 - 0.5 s can characterize sites
with different seismicity
100

10
M=7 D=10km

M=4 D=10km
1 M=7 D=100km
Similar SI

M=4 D=100km
0.1
0.01 0.1 1 10
period (s)
Spectrum intensity 0.2 - 2.0 s
100

10
M=7 D=10km

M=4 D=10km
1
M=7 D=100km Different SI

M=4 D=100km
0.1
0.01 0.1 1 10
period (s) seismic hazard 109
Response spectra for the main Italian towns

Specific main soil

seismic hazard 110

 MILAN
VENICE
TRIESTE
0.8 FLORENCE
ROME
NAPLES
MESSINA
CATANIA

spectral acceleration (g)

1st cat.
0.6 2nd cat.
Uniform hazard 3rd cat.

response spectrum
for the main
Italian towns 0.4

and design spectra

of the seismic code
pre-2003 0.2

0.1 1
period (s)
seismic hazard 111
 10 10

T=1.0s

Acceleration (g)
T=0.2s

Acceleration (g)
1 1

Ms=7.0 Ms=7.0
0.1 0.1

Ms=5.5

Ms=5.5
0.01 0.01

Ms=4.0
Spectral
a b Ms=4.0
Attenuation 0.001 0.001
1 10 100 1 10 100
Relations Distance (km) Distance (km)
10 10
solid = Ambraseys et al
(1996)
Acceleration (g)

Acceleration (g)
T=0.2s SD T=1.0s SD
dashed = Sabetta & Pugliese
(1996)
1 1

Ms=7.0
Ms=7.0
0.1 0.1
Ms=5.5

Ms=5.5

0.01 0.01
Ms=4.0

Ms=4.0
c d
0.001 0.001
1 10 100 1 10 100
seismic
Distance (km) hazard Distance (km) 112
IMAGES OF SEISMIC HAZARD (1)

seismic hazard 113

IMAGES OF SEISMIC HAZARD (2)

seismic hazard 114

IMAGES OF SEISMIC HAZARD (3)

seismic hazard 115

 Comparison among
different parameters

Every point is an
Italian municipality

seismic hazard 116

 DEAGGREGATION

It allows the estimate of the most

likely earthquake magnitude and
distance: the mean annual rate of
exceedence is expressed as a
function of magnitude and
distance

NS

z(mj ,rk ) P[M = mj ]P[R = rk ] iP(Z > z | mj ,rk )

i =1
seismic hazard 117
 SITE EFFECTS

Influence of:
lithology
morphology

seismic hazard 118

SITE CLASSIFICATION
AND
AMPLIFICATION
FACTORS

seismic hazard 119

SITE CLASSIFICATION
AND
ATTENUATION
RELATIONS
Attenuation relations for European eqs (Ambraseys et al., 1996)

seismic hazard 120

SOIL TYPES IN NE ITALY

seismic hazard 121

HAZARD MAPS FOR NE ITALY

rock

Soft soil

Stiff soil
seismic hazard 122
SOIL HAZARD MAPS FOR NE ITALY

PGA with a 475-yr

return period

median values

with aleatory uncertainty

seismic hazard 123
SOIL HAZARD MAP FOR FRIULI - VENEZIA
GIULIA

seismic hazard 124

HAZARD MAP OF FRIULI - VENEZIA GIULIA
IN INTENSITY

seismic hazard 125

THIS IS THE END OF SEISMIC
HAZARD

seismic hazard 126