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Another Tool in Home Field Advantage

We’ve said many times that home field/court advantage is far from equal. “Good starting
point” is the term that always comes to mind with the power ratings discussed in previous
articles. But the ability to look outside the box is imperative in all facets of handicapping
and analyzing the extent of HFA on a game by game basis is high on the list.

Rivals.com once wrote an article with the not-so-original title from my favorite
movie, “There is No Place Like Home”. Though the article is limited in scope, it’s one
we’ve saved because it does have usefulness to the gambler in accurately saying which
stadiums are the toughest to play in and most importantly why and under what
circumstances.

They of course tout the popular theory about LSU’s home field advantage increasing at
night because the fans love to tailgate and get more juiced, literally and figuratively by
the time the sun goes down. The article brings attention to why the Wisconsin “Fifth
Quarter” tradition keeps the fans into the game even in fourth quarter blowouts,
something to consider in large pointspreads and betting 4th quarter lines.

We’ve always said there are not many more important handicapping statistics in all sports
than home/road dichotomy. The article brings into focus a perspective that goes beyond
the useful but far from perfect power ratings and raw statistics.

Look-Ahead, Letdown and Sandwich Games

For the gambling newbie, the definitions of the above terms are fairly self explanatory.
Look-ahead games are contests in which one opponent may not be totally focused on their
current game because a bigger competition is on the horizon. Letdown games are when a
team may not be emotionally ready after playing one of their biggest games of the year or
perhaps following suffering a heartbreaking loss, stunning win or any circumstance that
can have a team coming out flat.

Sandwich games are just that: a game that is in between a letdown game and a look-ahead
contest. They are much more prevalent in college football and basketball at least
percentage wise. However in the five-game-in-seven-nights drudge that can be the NBA,
we’ve found under proper circumstances, pro basketball situations present themselves
too. Most importantly because of the preponderance of games, those contests sneak under
the radar, visible only the sharpest of players.

Far and away the most common parameter when an opportunity arises is a big favorite
overlooking an inferior team. Sandwich games in college football are generally the games
that most often hold true to expected form for the capper. A big favorite coming off a
defining victory and facing a watershed game the following week is the exact set of
circumstances that we exploit most often, pouncing on the live dog.

In college football, both winning and losing teams off of a multiple overtime game gets a
long look from us as a possible go-against the following week in a letdown situation.
Stop Teasing

We often get questins about the viability of teasers. Teasers prey on the psychology of the
square player who craves the (facade of) an extra security blanket. The only circumstance
that sharp players consistently play teasers is 10-point teasers in the NFL. Thanks to so-
called parity in the NFL, blowouts are rare and often it’s the dog that wins. So for
example making a seven-point dog a 17 point pup is the one type situation that some
sharp players have exploited on a consistent basis in the NFL.

We don’t like parlays either because—here’s a shock—the best handicappers don’t hit
100 percent. We simply win a lot more than we lose. But going 4-1 and losing in a parlay
nullifies good handicapping. The lure of low risk/high return is yet another enticement the
books create to help you lose money fast. Joey Bagodonuts pays Frankie at the office $10,
picks four games and feels like he bet $100.

Do yourself a favor. Bet the traditional way to win money and have a totally separate
entertainment bankroll of disposable income. Use that to bet $10-20 per week on office
parlay cards to get that lottery ticket vicarious feeling, but stick to straight betting to
experience the thrill of actually winning money.

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it will enable us to increase the amount of free sports betting content.

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