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October 1, 2014
Rating Matrix
Rating : Buy
Rallis India (RALIND)
Target : 278
Target Period : 18-24 months | 226
Potential Upside : 23% Good play on Agri theme....
Rallis India Ltd (Rallis), a Tata enterprise, is a major crop protection (agro
YoY growth (%) chemicals) player domestically with presence in the hybrid seed segment
(YoY Growth) FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E through its subsidiary Metahelix. The company has transformed itself
Net Sales 19.9 17.3 16.5 16.7 from being an insecticide player in the past decade to a total agriculture
EBITDA 24.1 21.3 22.6 22.7
services solution provider. Rallis presence across the value chain along
Net Profit 27.6 20.9 18.4 25.7
with good brand recall bodes well for the company. In FY10-14, Rallis
EPS (Rs) 27.6 20.9 18.4 25.7
Sales and PAT have grown at a CAGR of 18.4% and 10.6%, to | 1727
crore and | 152 crore respectively. Going forward, on the back of robust
Valuation summary (Consolidated)
FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
outlook in contract manufacturing business, strong retail presence
P/E 28.9 23.3 19.7 15.7 through 2000 dealers & 30000 retailers & increasing share of Non
Target P/E 35.5 29.4 24.8 19.8 pesticide portfolio (NPP share to rise from 33.9% of net sales in FY14 to
EV / EBITDA 17.0 13.6 10.9 8.7 34.6% of net sales in FY17E) we expect the companys Sales and PAT to
P/BV 6.1 5.1 4.4 3.7 grow at a CAGR of 16.8% & 21.6% respectively in FY14-17E. We initiate
RoNW 21.2 22.0 22.2 23.7 coverage on Rallis valuing it at 22x P/E on an average FY16E & FY17E EPS
RoCE 27.5 29.9 33.9 35.4 of | 12.6 with a corresponding target price of | 278 & assign a BUY rating.
Presence across the value chain!!
Stock Data Rallis is present across the agricultural value chain ranging from hybrid
Stock Data seeds (through its subsidiary Metahelix) to plant growth nutrients to
Market Capitalization | 4395.7 Crore
organic manure & soil conditioners (through its subsidiary Zero Waste
Total Debt (FY14) | 74.5 Crore
Agro Organics) to crop protection (agro chemicals). Metahelix
Cash and Investments (FY14) | 15.5 Crore
manufactures and markets hybrid seeds with ~60-65% exposure to the
EV | 4454.7 Crore
52 week H/L 251 / 145
Kharif season. Metahelixs revenue has grown at a CAGR of 59 % in FY12-
Equity capital | 19.5 Crore 14. With good product profile coupled with strong R&D set up, we expect
Face value |1 the Metahelixs revenue to grow at a CAGR of 25% in FY14-17E to | 439
MF Holding (%) 6.7 crore in FY17E (| 225 crore in FY14). Hence with Metahelix traction and
FII Holding (%) 15.0 strong base business we expect consolidated revenues to grow at a
CAGR of 16.8% over FY14-17E to | 2755.3 crore in FY17E.
Comparative return matrix (%) Contract manufacturing; new area of thrust; robust growth outlook
Return % 1M 3M 6M 12M Rallis also has a notable presence in the contract manufacturing segment
Rallis India -5.0 -2.0 37.0 46.0 wherein it manufactures chemicals and formulations for other reputed
PI Industries -5.0 36.0 75.0 210.0 industry players. It is developing its new Dahej SEZ unit for the purpose of
Dhanuka Agritech 11.0 26.0 90.0 260.0
contract manufacturing. In FY14, Rallis clocked a top line of ~| 250 crore
UPL Ltd 3.0 6.0 85.0 138.0
from this segment. With the commissioning of Dahej facility (partially) we
expect this segment to grow at a CAGR of 20% in FY14-17E.
Price movement
Sound financials, lean balance sheet; well poised for growth
9,000 300 Rallis has a lean balance sheet with minimal leverage and strong return
8,000 250 ratios with FY14 ROCE & ROE at 21% & 28% respectively. The company
7,000 also possesses relatively better working capital cycle with Net working
200
6,000 capital days at 23 days in FY14 vis--vis industry average of ~ 44 days.
150 We initiative coverage on Rallis India with a target price of | 278, valuing
5,000
4,000
100 the company at 22x P/E (implying PEG of 1x over FY14-17E period) on an
50 average FY16E & FY17E EPS of |12.6. We assign a BUY rating on the stock
3,000
Exhibit 1: Financial Performance (Consolidated)
2,000 0
(Year-end March) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Net Sales (| crore) 1,440.9 1,727.2 2,026.6 2,360.8 2,755.3
Price (R.H.S) Nifty (L.H.S) EBITDA (| crore) 210.6 261.3 316.9 388.7 476.9
Net Profit (| crore) 119.0 151.9 183.7 217.4 273.2
EPS (|) 6.1 7.8 9.4 11.2 14.0
Analysts name P/E (x) 36.9 28.9 23.3 19.7 15.7
Chirag J Shah Price / Book (x) 7.1 6.1 5.1 4.4 3.7
shah.chirag@icicisecurities.com EV/EBITDA (x) 21.0 17.0 13.6 10.9 8.7
Shashank Kanodia RoCE (%) 26.4 27.5 29.9 33.9 35.4
shashank.kanodia@icicisecurities.com RoE (%) 19.2 21.2 22.0 22.2 23.7
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Q3FY13
Q4FY13
Q1FY14
Q2FY14
Q3FY14
Q4FY14
Q1FY15
crore. Rallis present stake in Metahelix stands at ~80% with a total equity
FII DII investment of | 171 crore. In FY13 it had also acquired a majority stake in
organic manure and soil conditioners manufacturing company based in
Maharashtra i.e. Zero Waste Agro Organics Pvt. Ltd. As of FY14, Rallis
holds 51% in this company with a total equity investment of | 29 crore.
Rallis also has an institutional and contract manufacturing arm that
manufacturers chemicals for its institutional clients namely Bayer
Corpscience, PI Industries among others. The company is a registered
source of supplier in international markets and has no plans to enter into
the subsidy driven fertilizer segment domestically.
Exhibit 2: Rallis India Ltd. Overview
Rallis India
Consolidated revenue of ~
|1750 crore in FY14
Domestic Agro-chemicals Seeds Business Contract Manufacturing Institutional Business Plant Growth Nutrients,
(crop protection) Metahelix Household Chemicals
Revenues of ~|900 crore Revenues of ~| 225 crore Revenues of ~| 250 crore Revenues of ~ | 250 crore Revenues of ~| 125 crore
(51%) (13%) (14%) (14%) (8%)
36.4 80
80 40.0 43.7 48.1 50.6 51.1 57.1 57.5 57.4 58.8 60.0
60
60
% share
40 40
63.6 60.0 28.3 27.9 28.2 27.3 26.1
56.3 51.9 49.4 48.9 20
20
14.6 14.6 14.4 14.0 13.9
0 0
1970-71 1980-81 1990-91 2000-01 2010-11 2013-14 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
Kharif Rabi Agriculture & Allied Sectors Industry Services
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, ICICIdirect.com Research Source: Government of India, ICICIdirect.com Research
The proportion of food grain production between Kharif and Rabi in the
past has been skewed towards the Kharif season (In 1970s & 80s the
share of Kharif stood at ~60%). With increasing thrust on irrigation &
farmer awareness, the scenario is now balanced with current proportion
of food grain production being equally distributed among Kharif & Rabi
season. As of FY14, the share of Kharif & Rabi in total food grain
production stood at 49% & 51% respectively.
Exhibit 5: India Domestic GDP vs. India Domestic Agriculture GDP
Agricultural GDP at Agricultural GDP at
Domestic GDP at Constant YoY Growth Domestic GDP at Current YoY Growth Constant Prices (2004-05) YoY Growth Current Prices YoY Growth
Fiscal Year Prices (2004-05) (| crore) (%) Prices (| crore) (%) (| crore) (%) (| crore) (%)
FY06 3253073 9.5 3390503 14.1 502996 5.5 536822 12.6
FY07 3564364 9.6 3953276 16.6 523745 4.1 604672 12.6
FY08 3896636 9.3 4582086 15.9 556956 6.3 716276 18.5
FY09 4158676 6.7 5303567 15.7 555442 -0.3 806646 12.6
FY10 4516071 8.6 6108903 15.2 557715 0.4 928586 15.1
FY11 4918533 8.9 7248860 18.7 610905 9.5 1143517 23.1
FY12 5247530 6.7 8391691 15.8 643543 5.3 1300569 13.7
FY13 5482111 4.5 9388876 11.9 649424 0.9 1417468 9.0
FY14 5741791 4.7 10472807 11.5 681412 4.7 1653802 16.7
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, ICICIdirect.com Research ,
The pure play agricultural share in the total GDP at constant prices stood
at ~12% in FY14 while its share at the current prices was at ~16% in
FY14. In FY14, the real agricultural GDP growth rate stood at 4.7%.
40 26 industry size is pegged at ~US$ 3.8 billion (~| 20,000 crore) as of FY12,
which is equally divided between the domestic consumption & exports;
20
each at US$ 1.9 billion (~| 10,000 crore). The domestic industry is
0 expected to grow at a CAGR of ~12% to US$ 6.8 billion by FY17E with
CY06 CY12 CY18E domestic consumption witnessing a growth of ~8% CAGR & exports
expected to grow at a CAGR of ~15% in the aforesaid period.
Source: FICCI, Tata Strategic Group Study, ICICIdirect.com Exhibit 6: Global Agro chemical geographic distribution (CY12)
Research
ROW
4%
Latin America Europe
19% 29%
Globally, Europe constitutes the highest ~29% of the total
agro chemical consumption while Asia ranks 2nd with
~25% share of the total pie as of CY12.
North America
23%
Asia
25%
Source: FICCI, Tata Strategic Group Study, ICICIdirect.com Research Source: FICCI, Tata Strategic Group Study, ICICIdirect.com Research
150 100
132 134
%
131
80 100 132
%
199.0
100
185.7
185.3
60 130
172.6
165.8
50
152.8
143.0
141.3
141.6
140.9
140.3
133.2
131.9
128
118.8
40
50 0 126
20
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
0 0
1950-51 1960-61 1970-71 1980-81 1990-91 2000-01 2010-11 Net Area Sown Total Cropped Area Cropping Intensity
Net Area Sown Total Cropped Area Cropping Intensity
Source: Agriculture Statistics 2013, Ministry of Agriculture, ICICIdirect.com Research Source: Agriculture Statistics 2013, Ministry of Agriculture, ICICIdirect.com
Research
Cropping Intensity i.e. the no of times the same land can used for
cropping (calculated as gross sown area to net sown area) however in the
aforesaid period has increased from 111% in 1950-51 to 141% in 2010-11,
thereby implying efficiencies over the period of time.
As per the Vision 2030 document released by the Indian council of
Indias domestic population has grown from 361 million in
1950-51 to 1210 million in 2010-11 (at a CAGR of 2%).
agricultural research, the domestic demand for food grains is expected to
Going forward, as per the estimates of United Nations (UN) increase at a CAGR of ~2% in CY2000-30. The food grains demand is
Indias population is expected to grow at a CAGR of 1% to expected to reach 355 million tonne in CY 2030 vis--vis 192 million tonne
1450 million by 2028, putting forth a tremendous demand in CY2010. Fruits & vegetables demand is expected to reach 290 million
for food grains.
tonne in CY2030 vis--vis 136 million tonne in CY2010.
Exhibit 11: Food grains demand expected to increase at a CAGR of ~2% in CY2000-30
400 355
350
300
million tonne
Grains
Cereals
Fruits
Milk
Vegetables
Food
18 17
16
14 13
12
12
Kg/hectare
10
8 7 7
Pesticide usage in developed countries like USA & UK in FY12
stood at 7 Kg/hectare and 5 Kg/hectare respectively. 6 5 5
4
2 0.6
0
USA Korea France UK India Taiwan China Japan
Source: FICCI, Tata Strategic Group Study, ICICIdirect.com Research Source: FICCI, Tata Strategic Group Study, ICICIdirect.com Research
Among the states, Andhra Pradesh commands the highest share of 24%
in terms of pesticides usage, followed by Maharashtra which accounts for
13% and Punjab at 11%.
Exhibit 16: State Wise Domestic pesticide consumption (FY12)
Others
15% Andhra Pradesh
24%
West Bengal
5%
Haryana
5%
Tamil Nadu
Maharashtra
5%
13%
MP & Chhattisgarh
8%
Punjab
Gujarat Karnataka 11%
7% 7%
Diseases
26%
Insects
26%
Fungicides
15%
Insecticides
65%
Insecticides
22%
Source: FICCI, Tata Strategic Group Study, ICICIdirect.com Research Source: FICCI, Tata Strategic Group Study, ICICIdirect.com Research
MG NREGA Statistics
FY14 (till However, going forward with increasing urbanization and enrolment
Particulars Units FY11 FY12 FY13 Dec'13) under MGNREGA scheme, there is an existing trend of shortage of farm
Total Job Card labour which is driving the growth of herbicides domestically. As the
Issued crore 12.0 12.5 12.8 12.7
Manual labour is waning away, thereby making economics favourable
Employment
provided,
towards increased use of herbicides going ahead. To reiterate our point,
Households crore 5.5 5.1 5.0 3.8
50% of the new products launched by Rallis in the period FY11-14 were in
Person days crore 257.2 218.8 229.9 134.8 the herbicides segment, thereby showing strong inclination to penetrate
Budget Outlay | crore 40100 40000 33000 33000 the most promising agro chemical segment.
Central Release | crore 35769 29190 30010 29886
Source: NREGA.nic.in, ICICIdirect.com Research
Increase in MSPs bodes well for the farmers as it makes them financially
empowered thereby increasing their purchasing power for procuring
optimum raw materials for their farm lands. Increase in MSPs will also aid
in increasing the use of agro-chemicals going forward thereby helping the
agro-chemical industry for a robust growth period ahead.
2500 2500
2071 2095
1930 1909 1930
2000 2000 1757
1626 1626 1652
1535
1380
1500 1500
kg/hectare
kg/hectare
1023
872
1000 710 1000
522
500 500
0 0
1950-51
1960-61
1970-71
1980-81
1990-91
2000-01
2010-11
2000-01
2002-03
2004-05
2006-07
2008-09
2010-11
2012-13
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, ICICIdirect.com Research Source: Ministry of Agriculture, ICICIdirect.com Research
Indias yield of food grains lags considerably vis--vis that of global peers.
Exhibit 23: Paddy/Rice, Yield per hectare (2012) Exhibit 24: Maize, Yield per hectare (2012)
kg/hectare
600 5021
4944 5000
million
4394
million
400 4000
3591 4000
300 3000 400 274
206 2512 3000
164 153 177 208
200 2000 2000
69 200 71
100 31 43 44 1000 35 35
13 8 14 8 21 1000
0 0 0 0
World China India Indonesia Vietnam World USA China Brazil India
Area (million hectare) Production (million tonne) Area (million hectare) Production (million tonne)
Yield (kg/hectare) Yield (kg/hectare)
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, ICICIdirect.com Research Source: Ministry of Agriculture, ICICIdirect.com Research
As evident from the above charts, in the case of rice, domestic yield as of
2012 stood at 3591kg/hectare vs. the global average of 4394 kg/hectare
and significantly lagging behind Chinas yield of 6735 kg/hectare.
Similarly, in case of maize, which is the crop most widely produced
across the world, Indias yield stands at 2512 kg/hectare vs. global
average of 4944 kg/hectare. However in case of Wheat & Sugarcane India
is at par with the global average. In case of wheat, as of 2012 this stands
at 3174 kg/hectare while the global average is 3116 kg/hectare. Similarly,
in case of sugarcane, as of 2012 domestic yield is 68216 kg/hectare vs.
global average of 68752 kg/hectare
Agriculture Value Chain Seeds Plant Growth Nutrients Organic Manure Crop Protection
Rallis Presence Metahelix Standalone Entity Zero Waste Agro Core Business
Source: ICICIdirect.com Research
Fungicides
1500 1362 30%
1186
1033 Insecticides
| crore
500
Herbicides
0
25%
FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
Syngenta
Rallis is in agreement with Syngenta for co-marketing some of their
products with exposure to crops like rice, cotton & wheat. These products
are sold under the Rallis brand name. The brands include Preet, Paralac &
Sartaj
Bayer
Rallis has sourced the popular brand Tata Mida from Bayer and is also
co-marketing Spiro brand
30 1.8 2.0
R & D expenditure (Industry Players) 1.7
1.8
FY14 25 1.6
Company R&D Exp Net Sales R&D -% of Sales
20 1.2 1.4
PI Industries 8.1 1761 0.4
1.2
0.9
| crore
UPL Ltd 71.8 10771 0.7 0.8
15 0.8 1.0
%
Dhanuka Agritech 1.6 738.4 0.2 0.7
25.5
23.6
0.8
Rallis India 25.5 1747 1.7 10
0.3 0.6
Bayer Corpscience 20.2 3245 0.6
5 0.4
9.2
9.0
Monsanto India 28.8 582 4.9
7.2
0.2
6.0
5.3
2.5
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research 0 0.0
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
R&D Expenditure % of Net Sales
In the current financial year (YTD FY15) the company has launched 2
major products namely Origin (Insecticide + Fungicide) & Duton
(Herbicide). The company expects to break even in 2-3 years from these
new products.
Origin: It is a combination of insecticide & fungicide and is meant for
paddy/rice. Its a first of its kind in India and has been developed in house
by the company.
Duton: It is an herbicide which is meant for paddy. It is in-licensed from
Dow Chemicals.
35 31
30 30
30
25
20
20
15 15
As of FY14, Rallis innovation index stood at 15%, flat YoY
%
15 11
10
5
0
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
500 12.3 14
10.1 12
400
7.8 10
7.4
In FY14, Metahelix clocked sales of | 225 crore with 300 8
| crore
%
EBITDA of | 16.7 crore & corresponding EBITDA margins of
439
200 6
7.4%.
351
2.4
281
4
225
3 16.7
0 0
FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
Net Sales EBITDA EBITDA Margins (RHS)
40
51.6 51.0 50.2 49.4
20
2.0
4.3 2.0
4.2 2.0
4.2 1.9
4.1
0
FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
Plant Growth Nutirents Household Chemicals Domestic Pesticide Contract Manufacturing
40
0
FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
34
33.9 in FY14 and its share of the consolidated revenues in FY14 stood at 31%.
34 33.8
34
Going forward, we expect the share of NPP portfolio to increase from
31% of gross turnover/33.9% of net sales in FY14 to 34.6% of net sales in
33 FY17 primarily on the back of growth in the seeds (Metahelix) & organic
FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E compounds (Zero Waste Agro) business. The company has an internal
target of increasing the NPP share to 40% of the total sales going forward.
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
With increasing share of NPP portfolio (led by increase share of Metahelix
in the total revenue mix; share increasing from 13% in FY14 to 16% in
FY17E) and improvement in margin profile at Metahelix, the consolidated
margins of Rallis is expected to improve from 15.1% in FY14 to 17.3% in
FY17E.
430
400
359
| crore
300
300
250
200
FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
In the case of plant growth nutrients, foliar grade essentially Hybrid Maize, Hybrid Paddy, Bt Cotton, Bajra, Black Gram, Green
means the nutrients which are applied on the plant leaves Seeds Crops Covered Gram, Red Gram, Bengal Gram, Soybean, Wheat, Mustard
or sprayed in the air and are to be absorbed by the plant Foliar Grades
leaves. Fertigation grade on the other hand means the
Plant Growth Nutrients Fertigation Grades Gluco Beta, Ralligold, Solubar, Tata Bahaar, Tracel, Tata Uphaar
nutrients which are released along the irrigation channel
which are normally applied to the roots directly Household products Insecticides Termex, Sentry
Seed Treatment Tata Mida 70 WS, Glazer 35 WS, Tata Mida 600 FS, Captaf 50
Chemicals WP
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com, Research
160 200
134 173
140 180
160
120
140
100 88
120
days
days
80 100 83
58 59
60 80
33 60 47
40 34
40 23
20 6 13
20
0 0
UPL Ltd
Corpscience
Monsanto
Dhanuka
Rallis India
PI Industries
Agritech
UPL Ltd
Corpscience
Monsanto
Dhanuka
Rallis India
PI Industries
Agritech
India
India
Bayer
Bayer
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
70
58
60
50
40
40 35
30 30
30 23
days
20
10
10 6
1
0
-10 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
-20 -15
30 262627 26 25 26 252524
21 20 20 2221 20 2019
19 1815 1716 1715 18 17
20 14 1513 15
1212 11 12 11
10 4
0
Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14
Quarterly sales as a % of annual sales Quarterly EBITDA as a % of annual EBITDA Quarterly PAT as a % of annual PAT
0
Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14
Quarterly sales as a % of annual sales Quarterly EBITDA as a % of annual EBITDA Quarterly PAT as a % of annual PAT
19 17
15 13 13 13
products in the top 12 products by customer unaided recall. Rallis brands
20 12 that featured in the survey are Contaf, Rogor, Asataf, Tatamida, Contaf
10
Plus, Applaud & Tatamono.
0
Confidor
(Rallis)
(Syngenta)
Tatamida
(Bayer)
Tatamono
Rogor
(Bayer)
Fame
Proclaim
(Rallis)
(Rallis)
Tata Mida, Reeva, Asataf, Manik, Fateh, Nominee Gold, Osheen, Foratox, Fosmite, Fluid, Onestar, Lustre, Dhanzyme Gold Gr, Manzate Prostick, Super Wham,
Tata Metri, Tata Panida, Contaf, Contaf Biovita and Roket. Fuzi super, maxxlyd Starthene,Vandozeb, Tricor, Lancer Gold,
Key Brands Plus, Master and Fujione, Gluco Beta, Saaf, Devrinol, Phoskill
Ralligold, Solubar, Tata Bahaar, Tracel,
Tata Uphaar
In FY15, the company has launched 2 The Company introduced two new Introduced five new products Danfuron, Company expects to develop at least five
major products namely Origin & Duton. products during FY14 MELSA, a wheat Defend, Maxyld, Media Super and mega brands in the near future. It has
Newly launched Origin is a combination of insecticide & herbicide and PIMIX, a rice herbicide. Protocol during FY 2013-14. The launched 6 new products in India in FY14
products fungicide and is meant for paddy/rice. Going ahead, the company plans to company intends to launch two novel
Duton is an herbicide which is meant for introduce 7-8 new products over the next molecules in each of the next three years
paddy. 3-4 years
2000 dealers & 30,000 retailers 40,000 retail points & 9000 8,000 distributors/ dealers selling to over NA
Network
distributors/dealers 75,000 retailers
14% of revenues 52% of revenues Nil NA
Share of contract
manufacturing
Employees 881 in FY14 1432 in FY14 >1100 employees in FY14 3595 in FY14
FY14 Numbers
R&D as a % of 1.7 0.40 0.20 0.7
Sales
Net WC days 23 34.0 173.0 83.0
Gross Block 651 676 99 3588
Asset Turnover 2.7 2.6 7.5 3.0
| crore
1,441
%
| crore
1,994
1,500 1,000 27
1,701
1,453
1,238
1,024
1,000 500 26
761
660
574
417
489
500 - 25
FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
-
FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Domestic Sales Exports Exports as a % of Total Sales
25 2.0
23.1 23.1 1.83
20 19.8 1.5
18.5 1.34
16.7
15 15.1 15.7
13.7 1.0 0.94
x
0.72 0.92
10 9.9
9.0 0.5
7.6 0.41 0.35
5 5.2
0.0
0 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
Standalone revenue multiplier (x)
Nominal Agri GDP growth (%) Standalone Revenue growth (%) Average multiplier (x) FY07-FY14
Going forward, we have assumed the real Agri GDP growth rate of 4%
and added to it the average Agri inflation rate (10.8%) over the last 7
years to derive the nominal Agri growth rate of 14.8%. Applying a
revenue multiplier of 1x, we have obtained the revenue growth for
companys standalone operations (14.8% in FY14-17E).
For the companys seed & organic composite business, given their low
base, we have built in revenue CAGR of 25% & 50% respectively over
FY14-17E.
| crore
| crore
15.1 16
300 16 15.4
%
14.6 % 200 423 16
477 15
200 389 353
15 295 15
317 247
261 14 100 203 15
100 211
14 14
- 13 - 14
FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
300 12
9.9
8.8 9.1 9.2
250 8.3 10
200 8
| crore
150 6
%
273
100 217 4
184
152
50 119 2
- -
FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
|/share
20 23.7
%
22.2 8 20
%
21.2 22.0 14.0
15 19.2 6 11.2 15
10 9.4
4 7.8 10
5 6.1
2 3.4 4.2 5
- 2.3 2.4 2.8
- -
FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
RoE RoCE EPS DPS Payout Ratio
The company has maintained a healthy dividend payout at 38% in FY13 &
31% in FY14. We expect the company to maintain this healthy payout at
~30% going forward. We expect the company to record an EPS of | 9.4
in FY15E, | 11.2 in FY16E & | 14.0 in FY17E. The corresponding dividend
is expected at | 2.8/share in FY15E, | 3.4/share in FY16E & | 4.2/share in
FY17E.
0.5 0.5
%
300 0.5
x
2.1
200
100 2
477
0.4 0.4
168
156
200
389
0.3
317
50 1.1 1
261
90
255
0.2
211
211
200
198
100
47
104
0.1 - -
- -
FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
CFO EBITDA CFO/EBITDA Free Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Yield
The company has got re-rated multiple times in the last decade and with
the current governments thrust on increasing the farm productivity, we
expect the robust outlook for Rallis to continue going forward with the
company enjoying premium valuations. We have valued Rallis on the
average FY16E (| 11.2/share) & FY17E (| 14.0/share) EPS of | 12.6 and
assigned a P/E multiple of 22x (implying a PEG of 1x over FY14-17E;
bottom line growth of 21.6% in FY14-17E) to arrive at a target price of |
278. We assign a BUY rating on the stock. With pick up in the monsoon
activity towards the end of current season and progressive sowing
domestically the risks over subdued agricultural activity have also
relatively tapered down thereby rendering sentimental support to
premium valuations.
Exhibit 57: Peer Comparison (Financials)
Market Sales EBITDA EBITDA Margin PAT
Company Cap Debt FY12 FY13 FY14 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY12 FY13 FY14
PI Industries 6245 122 956.9 1246.3 1761.0 182.1 190.8 306.8 19.0 15.3 17.4 103.6 97.3 188.0
UPL Ltd 14564 3350 7671.3 9185.7 10771.0 1435.7 1726.6 2050.1 18.7 18.8 19.0 600.7 740.7 934.8
Dhanuka Agritech 2476 39 529.2 582.3 738.4 80.0 88.9 125.4 15.1 15.3 17.0 57.1 64.5 93.1
Insecticide Ind 914 258 521.8 616.7 864.1 56.4 69.5 82.2 10.8 11.3 9.5 33.0 35.3 39.9
Rallis India 4396 77 1274.8 1458.2 1746.6 202.9 210.6 261.3 15.9 14.4 15.0 99.1 119.0 151.9
Monsanto (I) 5308 0 373.8 442.4 581.8 70.4 86.6 151.1 18.8 19.6 26.0 50.2 67.3 122.9
Bayer Corp (I) 8561 0 2272.0 2725.0 3245.0 240.1 428.8 510.0 10.6 15.7 15.7 139.0 1162.0 289.5
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
Rallis India 4396 28.9 23.3 19.7 17.0 13.6 10.9 6.1 5.1 4.4 18.1 19.3 21.0 21.2 22.0 22.2
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
Sensitivity Analysis
Exhibit 59: EPS & Target price sensitivity to revenue growth
For every 200 bps alternation in the revenue CAGR over 16 11 14 278
FY14 - 17E
300
250
200
(|)
150
100
50
0
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Price 28x 25x 22x 19x 16x 13x 10x
Exhibit 61: 1 year forward P/E Graph Exhibit 62: 2 year forward P/E Graph
15 15
x
10 10
5 5
0 0
Sep-09
Mar-10
Sep-10
Mar-11
Sep-11
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Nov-10
Jan-10
Jun-10
Apr-11
Sep-11
Feb-12
Jul-12
Dec-12
Oct-13
Aug-14
May-13
Mar-14
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 63: Rallis P/E multiple; premium over PI Industries & Dhanuka Agritech
250
200
150
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Aug-13
Oct-13
Dec-13
Feb-14
Apr-14
Jun-14
Aug-14
Ratios
Exhibit 69: Ratio Analysis
(Year-end March) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
Per Share Data
EPS 6.1 7.8 9.4 11.2 14.0
Cash EPS 7.7 9.9 11.7 13.8 17.0
BV 31.9 36.9 43.0 50.3 59.4
Operating profit per share 10.8 13.4 16.3 20.0 24.5
Operating Ratios
EBITDA / Total Operating Income 14.4 15.0 15.5 16.3 17.1
PAT / Total Operating Income 8.2 8.7 9.0 9.1 9.8
Return Ratios
RoE 19.2 21.2 22.0 22.2 23.7
RoCE 26.4 27.5 29.9 33.9 35.4
RoIC 27.4 27.5 32.0 35.6 39.6
Valuation Ratios
EV / EBITDA 20.4 16.6 13.6 10.9 8.7
P/E 35.9 28.2 23.3 19.7 15.7
EV / Net Sales 3.0 2.5 2.1 1.8 1.5
Sales / Equity 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4
Market Cap / Sales 3.0 2.5 2.1 1.8 1.6
Price to Book Value 6.9 6.0 5.1 4.4 3.7
Turnover Ratios
Asset turnover 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4
Inventory Days 67.7 69.6 75.0 75.0 75.0
Debtor Days 41.7 35.5 35.0 40.0 45.0
Creditor Days 103.5 81.6 80.0 80.0 80.0
Working Capital Days 6.0 23.5 30.0 35.0 40.0
Solvency Ratios
Debt / Equity 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Current Ratio 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5
Quick Ratio 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
million hectares
7.1, 11%
16.0, 25% 60 23 30
Other Wells, 18
%
17
92
89
10.8, 17% 40 20
76
65
64
63
Tanks, 1.9,
55
50
48
3% 20 10
39
38
31
28
25
23
21
0 0
Tube Wells, 1950-51 1960-61 1970-71 1980-81 1990-91 2000-01 2010-11 2011-12
29.4, 44% Gross Irrigated Area (million hectares)
Net Irrigated Area (million hectares)
% of Gross Irrigated Area over Gross Cropped Area
Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction;
Buy: >10%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively;
Hold: Up to +/-10%;
Sell: -10% or more;
research@icicidirect.com
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