Bishop Stuart University

Facility of Business and Development Studies

Department of Economics and Environmental management
Program: MSECM
Corse Unit: social economic in evolution of economic theory
Submitted by: Abaho Enock Kategaya (kategayaenoch@gmail.com , +256701328453)
For: professor. Banugire

Qn: choose any one of the classical economist and identify 2 theories and write a short
essay about these theories showing the assumptions on which they are based as well as
policy implications

Malthusian Theory of Population

Thomas Robert Malthus enunciated his views about population in his famous book, Essay on the
Principle of Population as it affects the Future Improvement of Society, published in 1798. Malthus
revolted against the prevailing optimism shared by his father and Godwin that a perfect state could
be attained if human restraints could be removed.

Malthus objection was that the pressure of increasing population on the food supply would destroy
perfection and there would be misery in the world. Malthus was severely criticized for his
pessimistic views which led him to travel on the continent of Europe to gather data in support of his
thesis. He incorporated his researches in the second edition of his Essay published in 1803.

His Hypothesis
In this famous work, Malthus posited his hypothesis that (unchecked) population growth always
exceeds the growth of means of subsistence. Actual (checked) population growth is kept in line with
food supply growth by "positive checks" (starvation, disease and the like, elevating the death rate)
and "preventive checks" (i.e. postponement of marriage, etc. that keep down the birthrate), both of
which are characterized by "misery and vice". Malthus's hypothesis implied that actual population
always has a tendency to push above the food supply. Because of this tendency, any attempt to
ameliorate the condition of the lower classes by increasing their incomes or improving agricultural
productivity would be fruitless, as the extra means of subsistence would be completely absorbed by
an induced boost in population. As long as this tendency remains, Malthus argued, the
"perfectibility" of society will always be out of reach.

In his much-expanded and revised 1803 edition of the Essay, Malthus concentrated on bringing
empirical evidence to bear (much of it acquired on his extensive travels to Germany, Russia and
Scandinavia). He also introduced the possibility of "moral restraint" (voluntary abstinence which
leads to neither misery nor vice) bringing the unchecked population growth rate down to a point
where the tendency is gone. In practical policy terms, this meant inculcating the lower classes with
middle-class virtues. He believed this could be done with the introduction of universal suffrage,
state-run education for the poor and, more controversially, the elimination of the Poor Laws and the
establishment of an unfettered nation-wide labor market. He also argued that once the poor had a
taste for luxury, then they would demand a higher standard of living for themselves before starting a
family. Thus, although seemingly contradictory, Malthus is suggesting the possibility of
demographic transition", i.e. that sufficiently high incomes may be enough by themselves to reduce
fertility. The Malthusian theory explains the relationship between the growth in food supply and in
population. It states that population increases faster than food supply and if unchecked leads to vice
or misery.

The theory propounded by Malthus can be summed up in the following propositions:

(1) Food is necessary to the life of man and, therefore, exercises a strong check on population. In
other words, population is necessarily limited by the means of subsistence (i.e., food).

(2) Population increases faster than food production. Whereas population increases in geometric
progression, food production increases in arithmetic progression.

(3) Population always increases when the means of subsistence increase, unless prevented by some
powerful checks.

(4) There are two types of checks which can keep population on a level with the means of
subsistence. They are the preventive and a positive check.

The first proposition is that the population of a country is limited by the means of subsistence. In
other words, the size of population is determined by the availability of food. The greater the food
production, the greater the size of the population which can be sustained. The check of deaths caused
by want of food and poverty would limit the maximum possible population.

The second proposition states that the growth of population will out-run the increase in food
production. Malthus thought that mans sexual urge to bear offspring knows no bounds. He seemed to
think that there was no limit to the fertility of man. But the power of land to produce food is limited.
Malthus thought that the law of diminishing returns operated in the field of agriculture and that the
operation of this law prevented food production from increasing in proportion to labour and capital
invested in land. In fact, Malthus observed that population would tend to increase at a geometric rate
(2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, etc.), but food supply would tend to increase at an arithmetic rate (2, 4, 6, 8, 10,
12). Thus, at the end of two hundred years population would be to the means of subsistence as 259
to 9; in three centuries as 4,096 to 13, and in two thousand years the difference would be
incalculable. Therefore, Malthus asserted that population would ultimately outstrip food supply.

According to the third proposition, as the food supply in a country increases, the people will produce
more children and would have larger families. This would increase the demand for food and food per
person will again diminish. Therefore, according to Malthus, the standard of living of the people
cannot rise permanently.

As regards the fourth proposition, Malthus pointed out that there were two possible checks which
could limit the growth of population: (a) Preventive checks, and (b) Positive checks.

Preventive Checks:

Preventive checks exercise their influence on the growth of population by bringing down the birth
rate. Preventive checks are those checks which are applied by man. Preventive checks arise from
mans fore-sight which enables him to see distant consequences He sees the distress which frequently
visits those who have large families.

He thinks that with a large number of children, the standard of living of the family is bound to be
lowered. He may think that if he has to support a large family, he will have to subject himself to
greater hardships and more strenuous labor than that in his present state. He may not be able to give
proper education to his children if they are more in number.

Further, he may not like exposing his children to poverty or charity by his inability to provide for
them. These considerations may force man to limit his family. Late marriage and self-restraint during
married life are the examples of preventive checks applied by man to limit the family.

Positive Checks:

Positive checks exercise their influence on the growth of population by increasing the death rate.
They are applied by nature. The positive checks to population are various and include every cause,
whether arising from vice or misery, which in any degree contributes to shorten the natural duration
of human life.

The unwholesome occupations, hard labor, exposure to the seasons, extreme poverty, bad nursing of
children, common diseases, wars, plagues and famines ire some of the examples of positive checks.
They all shorten human life and increase the death rate.

Malthus recommended the use of preventive checks if mankind was to escape from the impending
misery. If preventive checks were not effectively used, positive checks like diseases, wars and
famines would come into operation. As a result, the population would be reduced to the level which
can be sustained by the available quantity of food supply.

Criticisms of the Malthusian theory

The Malthusian theory of population has been widely discussed and criticized during the 19th and
early 20th century. Some of the criticisms are as follows:

(1) Mathematical Form of the Theory Wrong:

The mathematical formulation of Malthus doctrine that food supply increases in arithmetical
progression and population increases in geometrical progression in 25 years has not been proved
empirically. Rather, the food supply has increased more than in the arithmetical progression because
of the rapid advances in technology. As a result, living standards of the people have risen instead of
falling as was predicted by Malthus. While population growth has not been in geometrical
progression so as to double the population in 25 years. But this criticism is beside the point because
Malthus used his mathematical formulation to make his principle clear in the first edition of his
Essay and deleted it in its second edition.

Malthus asserted that food production would not keep pace with population growth owing to the
operation of the law of diminishing returns in agriculture. But by making rapid advances in
technology and accumulating capital in larger quantity, advanced countries have been able to
postpone the stage of diminishing returns. By making use of fertilizers, pesticide better seeds,
tractors and other agricultural machinery, they have been able to increase their production greatly.
In fact, in most of the advanced countries the rate of increase of food production has been much
greater than the rate of population growth. Even in India now, thanks to the Green Revolution, the
increase in food production is greater than the increase in population. Thus, inventions and
improvements in the methods of production have belied the gloomy forecast of Malthus by holding
the law of diminishing returns in check almost indefinitely.

(2) Failed to foresee the Opening up of New Areas:

Malthus had a narrow vision and was particularly influenced by local conditions in England. He
failed to foresee the opening up of new areas of Australia, the United States and Argentina where
extensive farming of virgin lands led to increased production of food. As. a result, countries like
England on the continent of Europe have been provided with abundant supplies of cheap food. This
has been made possible with rapid improvements in the means of transport, a factor almost
overlooked by Malthus. No country need fear starvation and misery if it does not produce sufficient
for its increasing population these days.

(3) Applied a Static Economic Law to a Period of Time:

The Malthusian notion that the food supply increases in arithmetical progression is based on a static
economic law at any one time. i.e., the law of diminishing returns. Malthus could not foresee the
unprecedented increase in scientific knowledge and agricultural inventions over a period of time
which has stayed the law of diminishing returns. Consequently, the food supply has increased much
faster than in arithmetical progression. Malthus has been proved wrong not only in the advanced
countries but also in developing countries like India with the green revolution.

(4) Neglected the Manpower Aspect in Population:

One of the principal weaknesses of Malthus thought has been that he neglected the manpower aspect
in population growth. He was a pessimist and dreaded every increase in population. He forgot,
according to Cannan, that a baby comes to the world not only with a mouth and a stomach, but also
with a pair of hands. This implies that an increase in population means an increase in manpower
which may tend to increase not only agricultural but also industrial production and thus makes the
country rich by an equitable distribution of wealth and income. As rightly pointed out by Seligman,
The problem of population is not merely one of mere size but of efficient production and equitable
distribution. Thus the increase in population may be necessary.

(5) Population not related to Food Supply but to Total Wealth:

The Malthusian theory rests on a weak relationship between population and food supply. In fact, the
right relationship is between population and total wealth of the country. This is the basis of the
optimum theory of population. The argument is that if a country is rich materially and even if it does
not produce enough food for its population, it can feed the people well by importing food stuffs in
exchange for its products or money.

The classic example is of Great Britain which imports almost all its food requirements from Holland,
Denmark, Belgium and Argentina because it concentrates more on the production of wealth rather
than on food products. Thus the very basis of the Malthusian doctrine has been proved wrong.

(6) Increase in Population the Result of declining Death Rate:

The Malthusian theory is one sided. It takes the increase in population as the result of a rising birth
rate, whereas population has grown considerably the world over due to a decline in death rate.
Malthus could not foresee the marvelous advancements in the field of medical sciences which have
controlled fatal diseases and made human life longer. This has been particularly so in underdeveloped
countries like India where the Malthusian theory is said operate.

(7) Empirical Evidence proves this Theory Wrong:

Empirically, it has been proved by demographists that population growth is a function of the level of
per capita income. When per capita income increases rapidly, it lowers the fertility rate and the rate
of population growth declines. Dumonts social capillarity thesis has proved that with the increase
in per capita incomes, the desire to have more children to supplement parental incomes declines.
When people are accustomed to a high standard of living, it becomes a costly affair to rear a large
family. Population tends to become stationary because people refuse to lower their standard of living.
This has actually happened in the case of Japan, France and other western countries.

(8) Preventive Checks do not pertain to Moral Restraint:

Malthus was essentially a religious man who laid emphasis on moral restraint, celibacy, late
marriage, etc. to control population. But he could not visualize that human beings would invent
contraceptives and other family planning devices for birth control. This was perhaps due to the fact
that he could not make any distinction between sexual desire and the desire to have children. People
have sexual desire but they do not want to have more children. Thus moral restraint alone cannot
help to control the increase in population which Malthus suggested. Family Planning is essential as a
preventive check.

(9) Positive Checks not due to Over-population:

Malthus pessimism and religious education led him to believe that over-population was a heavy
burden on the earth which was automatically lessened by God in the form of misery, wars, famines,
floods, diseases, pestilence, etc. But all these are natural calamities which are not peculiar to over-
populated countries. They visit even those countries where the population is on the decline or
stationary, such as France and Japan.

(10) Malthus a False Prophet:

The Malthusian theory is not applicable to countries for which this was propounded. In the western
European countries, the bogey and pessimism of Malthus has been overcome. His prophecy that
misery will stalk these countries if they fail to check the growth of population through preventive
checks has been proved wrong by a decline in birth rate, adequacy of food supply, and increase in
agricultural and industrial production. Thus Malthus has proved to be a false prophet.

Its Applicability and implication of policy flame work

Despite these weaknesses, the Malthusian doctrine contains much truth. The Malthusian doctrine
may not be applicable to the Western Europe and England but its principal tools have become the
part and parcel of the people of these countries. If these lands do not face the problems of over-
population and misery, it is all due to the bogey and pessimism of Malthusianism.
In fact, the people of Europe were made wiser by Malthus who forewarned them of the evils of over-
population and they started adopting measurers toward it off. The very fact that people use
preventive checks, like late marriage and various contraceptives and birth control measures on an
extensive scale proves the vitality of the Malthusian law.

Even famous economists like Marshall and Pigou and sociologists like Darwin were influenced by
this principle when they incorporated it in their theories. And Keynes, initially overawed by the
Malthusian fears of over-population, later wrote about Some Economic Consequences of Declining
Population. Is it not the fear of Malthusianism which has created the problem of declining
population in France?

The Malthusian doctrine may not be applicable now to its place of origin, but its influence spreads
over two-third of this universe. Excluding Japan, the whole of Asia, Africa and South America come
under its purview. India is one of the first countries to adopt family planning on state level to control
population. Positive checks like floods, wars, droughts, disuses, etc. operate.

The birth and death rates are high. The growth rate of population is about 2 per cent per annum. The
real aim of population policy is, however, not to avoid starvation but to eliminate poverty so as to
raise output per head in an accelerated manner. Thus the Malthusian theory is fully applicable to
underdeveloped countries like India. Walker was right when he wrote: The Malthusian theory is
applicable to all communities without any consideration of color and place. Malthusianism has stood
unshattered, impregnable amid all the controversy that has raged around it.

We must, however, add that though the gloomy conclusions of Malthus have not turned out to be true
due to several factors which have made their appearance only in recent times, yet the essentials of the
theory have not been demolished. He said that unless preventive checks were exercised, positive
checks would operate. This is true even today. The Malthusian theory fully applies in India.

It even applies to Uganda. We are at present in that unenviable position which Malthus feared. We
have the highest birth-rate and the highest death-rate in the region. Grinding poverty, ever-recurring
epidemics, famine and communal quarrels are the order of the day. We are deficient in food supply.
Our standard of living is incredibly low.

The ever increasing messages on family planning methods are a clear indication that
the theory of Malthus is relevant today. Most Government especially in china and India
give incentives for family that produces few children. In these countries, it actually a
Government policy. The one child policy in china is a measure to control pollution.

The relevancy of the theories today

Malthus is widely regarded as the founder of modern demography. He made the

prediction that population would outrun food supply, leading to a decrease in food per
person and so to widespread famine. He thus advocated sexual abstinence and late
marriages as methods of controlling the population growth. The influence of Malthus'
theories was substantial. His theory of demand-supply mismatches, which he termed
"gluts" was a precursor to later theories about the Great Depression, and to the works of
admirer and economist John Maynard Keynes. Malthus' idea of humanitys "Struggle for
existence also had a decisive influence on Charles Darwin and evolutionary theory.
Although Malthus opposed the use of contraception to limit population growth, his work
had a strong influence on Francis Place, whose Neo-Malthusian movement was the first
to advocate contraception. Concerns based on Malthus' theory also helped promote the
idea of a national population Census in the UK. His writings also were also influential in
bringing about the Poor Law Amendment Act of 1834.

In African and Uganda at large, the current food crisis in Isingiro District and many parts
of the county are a sign of famine that Malthus feared. More people have died and
continue to dies. The reduced rains and poor farming methods coupled with poor
planning have not increased food production. The technology to improve farming is not
available in the rural area. There like Malthus feared, this ever increasing population is
out numbering the means of livelihood. At the point his suggestions of reducing
population are more and more relevant.

Malthus has since been proven wrong in his assumption that population growth will
outrun the food supply, necessitating population control. Malthus' approach was
incomplete, and thus inadequate, but his influence has been significant. As human
society becomes more and more interdependent through globalization and technological
advances, the need to satisfy both the physical and spiritual needs of all people is of
paramount importance. While not finding the answers, Malthus nonetheless raised
awareness of the need to balance population growth with the needs of that increasing
population.

Malthus and Rent

The hypothesis

At the East India College Malthus developed a theory of rent which he regarded as the direct consequence
of his principle of population. If population tends to increase more rapidly than subsistence, Malthus
argued, people will continually have to bring under cultivation soils of an inferior quality.

Assumptions

The labour needed to produce food would go up and so would the price of food.
The price of food generally goes up because the cost of producing it at the margin of profitable
production has increased.
The people who are farming the least profitable land get just enough in terms of wages and profits
to make it worth their while.
The people farming the more fertile land, the price they get for their produce has increased, but
their costs have not.
Because of competition wages and profits tend to be equal on different soils.
A landlord whose tenant farmer is making a big profit will increase the rent - and if the farmer will
not pay there will be a farmer from the poorer soil to take his place, because, on more fertile land,
this farmer will be able to reduce his labour costs to pay the extra rent.
So, there is a surplus from the more fertile areas, but it all goes to the landlord as increased rent,
not to the farm labourers (wages) or to the farmers (profits)
Rent is not a cost of production, it is merely a deduction from the surplus
Rent is price determined, not price determining
 Rent is due to three facts:
agricultural production yields a surplus
the wage-fertility dynamics guarantee that the price of corn would
remain above its cost of production
That fertile land is scarce.

The Link between the population theory and Rent

An increase results in higher rent. Larger numbers need more food. An extra supply of food can be secured
only by ploughing less fertile land, because the more fertile or better situated lands are already under the
plough.

Resources on T. Robert Malthus

HET Pages: General Glut Controversy

Letters to Thomas Robert Malthus on Political Economy and Stagnation of Commerce by Jean-
Baptiste Say, 1821

"Malthus And The Liberties Of The Poor " by William Hazlitt, 1807

"An Examination of Mr Malthus's Doctrines " by William Hazlitt, 1819

"On the Application of Mr Malthus' Principle to the Poor Laws " by William Hazlitt, 1819

"Queries Relating to the Essay on Population " by William Hazlitt, 1819

"The Malthusian Theory - Discussed in a Correspondence between Alex H. Everett and Professor
George Tucker of the University of Virginia", US Democratic Review, 1845: Part I (pp. 297-
310), Part II (pp.379-92) ,

"The Condition of China, with Reference to the Malthusian Theory, Discussed in a Correspondence
between Alex H. Everett and Professor George Tucker, Late of the University of Virginia", US
Democratic Review, 1847: Part I ( pp. 397-411) , 1848, Part II (pp.11-18) ,

"Malthusianism ", 1867, Princeton Review

"Malthusianism, Darwinism, and Pessimism ", by Francis Bowen, 1879, NAR

"Are There Too Many of Us? " by E. B. Andrews, 1892, NAR

Malthus and his legacy: The population debate after 200 years , National Academic Forum, 1998

"The Malthus-Ricardo Correspondence: Sequential Structure, Argumentative Patterns and

Rationality ", by Marcelo Dascal and Sergio Cremaschi.