Analyzing peak runoff dates and main drivers behind snow drought in the

western United States

Ian Russell1 and Dr. Benjamin I. Cook2

Packer Collegiate Institute, Brooklyn, NY, 11201
2NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Columbia University, 2880 Broadway, New
York, NY 10025

Acknowledgments:

I would like to thank my science research mentor, Dr. Benjamin Cook for allowing

me to work with him and be able to conduct this project. I would also like to thank MS.

Erin Schmitz and Mr. Lutz Holzinger for their support in the science research program at

Packer Collegiate Institute.

Abstract:

The West Coast of the United States is an area that is currently under severe

drought conditions due to lack of precipitation and snow drought within the mountain

ranges throughout the region. Lack of snow in the Sierra Nevada and Cascade ranges

is concerning for West Coast residents, as the region's Mediterranean climate often

means very little precipitation in the summer, and water in the reservoirs comes from

the melting snow running down the mountain. The lack of summer precipitation coupled

with an earlier peak runoff date (time when snow is melting and running off the most)

and weaker total runoff values, can lead to areas running out of the necessary water

prior to the end of their dry period. Additionally, temperature is an extremely important

variable in snow drought, since if it is not cold enough to support frozen precipitation

(snow), the snowpack can not increase. Even if precipitation is above average, a snow
drought can still occur due to above average temperatures. Through the modelling of

several datasets using historical temperature and precipitation data from the Sierra

Nevada and Cascade mountain ranges, it was discovered that snow water equivalent

(SWE) is the main driver behind earlier runoff start dates, and lower runoff values. It can

be concluded that in snow drought years, defined in our MATLAB program (Coding

software) as a year where October-March total precipitation is average or above and

March SWE is below average, runoff typically occurs much earlier and at a much lower

value. This scenario has been exhibited throughout the past four years within both

mountain ranges, as there has been record low SWE and runoff values (out of 36 year

dataset). Although the western region has experienced the most severe snow drought

conditions over the entirety of the 36 year dataset in the past four years, it is not certain

that the frequency of such events has been increasing due to close to no trend in the

general March-April yearly SWE values.

Introduction:

The Western Coast of the United States is one of the most diverse climate

regions in the world, stemming from the numerous climate zones spread across several

of the Pacific states (Eardley & James, 2010). The Sierra Nevada and Cascade

mountain ranges running along the coast, contribute to the diversity of the West Coasts

climate. Along with the influence of the Pacific ocean, these ranges allow for a myriad of

weather conditions within the region (Grantham, Merenlender, & Resh, 2010).
 The coastal portion of California experiences a Mediterranean climate, which is

characterized as having hot, dry summers, and warm, wet winters. As much as 85% of

rainfall in some regions of California falls during the winter months (Mooney & Zavaleta,

2016). The Pacific High, a high pressure that sits off the coast of California during the

summer months drives the mediterranean climate, creating hot and dry summers

(Western Regional Climate Center). During the winter months the Pacific High shifts

further south, allowing for the Aleutian Low to set up near Alaska (Rodionov, Bond, &

Overland, 2007). The Aleutian Low is a low pressure system located over the Gulf of

Alaska and the Bering Sea. Many storms throughout the winter are located around this

low and atmospheric disturbances often move into this area and intensify under the

influence of the low. The clockwise motion of the low then pushes these disturbances

eastward into the Pacific Northwest and Northern California, causing large amounts of

rainfall.

The low Pacific Ocean temperatures also play a large role in the wet winter

months. The interaction between cold, ocean water, and the warm, atmospheric air,

leads to condensation, which creates clouds and eventually rain (Grantham,

Merenlender, & Resh, 2010). The jet stream also plays a significant role in West Coast

climate, as in the summer it moves north near British Columbia, Canada, allowing for

warm, dry air to move north from the south (NOAA, 2014). During the winter months, it

moves south to the Pacific Northwest allowing for storms to move along it from the

Pacific Ocean and into the West Coast.

 Figure 1 | Jet Stream Position in Summer (orange arrow) vs. Winter (blue arrow) (NC State University)

As precipitation moves ashore in the West Coast, it predominantly moves in a

West to East pattern, causing the moisture to interact with the mountain ranges further

inland. As this happens, orographic lift occurs since moisture is forced from a low

elevation to a higher elevation as it moves over rising terrain (Pandey, Cayan, &

Georgakakos, 1999). As the air mass gains altitude it quickly cools down, which can

raise the relative humidity and create clouds and under the right conditions,

precipitation. This leads to extremely high amounts of precipitation within the mountain

ranges, as almost all of the moisture from the air mass is being deposited on this area.

Since most of the precipitation is wrung out on the east-

Figure 2 | As moist air quickly rises up an sharp increase in elevation, the moisture is wrung from the
cloud causing a large amount of precipitation falling on the mountains. Since most of the water falls as
some precipitation type before reaching the other side of the mountain, a rain shadow occurs.
(Encyclopedia Britannica)

-ern side of the mountains (West Coast mountain ranges), a rain shadow occurs on the

western side, as most of the air masses cannot make it past the mountain. This causes

desert-like conditions, and close to no rainfall for several hundred miles past these

ranges.

Figure 3a/3b | (Figure 3a) depicts a portion of the Sierra Nevada mountain range. To the west of the
mountains shows green, lush vegetation, indicative of a non-desert climate, whereas to the east of the
mountain range, it is a brown, barren landscape demonstrating the rain shadow. (Figure 3b) depicts a
portion of the Cascade mountain range. To the west of the mountains shows green, lush vegetation,
indicative of a non-desert climate, whereas to the east of the mountain range, it is a brown, barren
landscape demonstrating the rain shadow. (NASA Earth Observatory)

As temperatures at higher elevations are much lower, most of the precipitation

that occurs during the winter months in both mountain ranges falls in the form of snow

(Mote, 2006). Since temperatures remain below freezing for the higher elevations, there

is not a significant amount of snow melt occurring during the winter months allowing for

the snowpack to build up rapidly. Towards the end of winter, start of spring,

temperatures begin to increase, leading to snowmelt and runoff, a process that sees the

water produced from the melt, run down the mountain via streams and rivers into the

valleys below. The runoff that occurs supplies water to states across the West Coast

such as California, Oregon, Washington, and Nevada. This is especially important in

rain shadow areas as they do not receive sufficient rains to be able to supply citizens

with the necessary water. Typically, the runoff occurs at the end of March, early April,

which allows for reservoirs to be filled in anticipation for the summer dry period along

most of the West Coast. Because of this, the runoff peak and start date for both

mountain ranges is extremely important, as if it occurs earlier, stored water for millions

of people could run out prior to the start of the wet season.

The ongoing drought that has been severely impacting much of the West Coast

for the past four years, has caused increased water shortage fears, as extremely low

precipitation and SWE values have been recorded within the region (Cooper, Nolin, &

Safeeq, 2016). This coupled with above-average temperatures has led to earlier runoff

dates and more precipitation falling as rain, rather than snow. Because of the ongoing
drought, and the importance of both the Sierra Nevada and Cascade mountain ranges,

it is necessary to explore the reasoning and impacts behind changes in the runoff dates,

and the find the variables such as temperature, SWE, snow-frac, that are most highly

correlated to runoff to explore how it connects to the current west coast drought. This

can be achieved through using historical data (1979-2015) for the aforementioned

variables. Lastly, it is important to investigate the overarching topic of snow drought,

which can be characterized in numerous ways including a year with a snowfall deficit, or

one with below average SWE. It is necessary to find the years in our datasets for both

mountain ranges with the worst snow droughts in an attempt to determine if similar

events have been occurring more frequently and also find the main drivers behind snow

drought, and which variables are most highly correlated to it.

Methodology:

To explore the changes in snow drought and runoff, MATLAB, a programming

application, was used to create code in order to represent our data. Two datasets with a

resolution of 8km by 8km for both the Sierra Nevada and Cascade mountain ranges

were used (Pan, 2003). Higher elevations were looked at to focus solely on the

mountains and not areas around them, which could skew our data. The datasets that

were used had 36 years of data, ranging from 1979-2015, and included six variables,

TSurf (surface temperature in celsius), PrecTotal (precipitation total in liquid form in

mm), Snowfall (snowfall in mm), SWE (mm), Runoff (mm), and SnowFrac (snowfall in

mm/PrecTotal). The data was obtained through snow station observations in the Sierra
Nevada and Cascade ranges, where precipitation, temperature, and rainfall was

recorded, and later inputted into a model that calculated runoff and SWE based on the

actual observations (Pan, 2003). Each model uses slightly different equations to

calculate the values for each month and year in the datasets, and therefore gives more

information about what could be occurring within the mountain ranges for each variable.

These models were run by separate scientists, and the data collected and modelled

was created in a separate study.

Figure 4 | This is a picture of the dataset for snowfall in the Sierra Nevada mountains (NOAH model). The
row number indicates the month, (1 = January, 2 = February.), and the row indicates the year (1 =
1979, 2 = 1980, 3 = 1981). Therefore the value in row 1, column 1, indicates the total snowfall for
January in 1979 in the Sierra Nevada range. This is not the entire dataset as the figure only depicts rows
1-23 and columns 1-10. There are a total of 36 rows (for each year) and 12 columns (for each month).

Each year in the dataset had a value for each month within that year (See figure

4). Depending on the variable, the value is an average of the months conditions
(average TSurf for the month), or is a sum of the conditions (sum of rainfall for each

month). Additionally, in some of the coding, datasets from three different models were

used (NOAH, VIC, MOS) for both locations. Some key figures used as a control were

the climatology figures. Climatologies are the monthly averages of each variable for

each month over the 36 years of data. For example, when looking at a climatology, the

value for TSurf in November would represent the average monthly TSurf value over the

36 years. Several different programs were written in order to extract figures from the

data that compared variables for different years, found correlations between different

variables, and ranked years in severity of snow drought.

Data:

Precipitation (mm) Climatology in Sierras and Cascades Temperature (C) Climatology in Sierras and

Cascades

Month Value (Jan. - Dec.) Month Value (Jan. - Dec.)

Figure 5a/5b | (Figure 5a) depicts the total precipitation climatology for the Sierra Nevada (blue line) and
Cascade (orange line) mountain ranges. The climatology was produced through averaging the values of
each month over the 36 year dataset for total precipitation. The y-axis depicts mm of precip., and the
x-axis depicts the month (January (1) - December (12). (Figure 5b) depicts the temperature climatology
for the Sierra Nevada (blue line) and Cascade (orange line) mountain ranges. The climatology was
produced through averaging the values of each month over the 36 year dataset for temperature. The
y-axis depicts temperature in celsius and the x-axis depicts the month (January (1) - December (12).
SWE (mm) Climatology in Cascades (All Models) SWE (mm) Climatology in Sierras (All Models)

Month Value (Jan. - Dec.) Month Value (Jan. - Dec.)

Figure 6a/6b | (Figure 6a) depicts the SWE climatology for the Sierra Nevada mountain range. The
climatology was produced through averaging the SWE of each month over the 36 year dataset for total
precipitation. The y-axis depicts mm of SWE., and the x-axis depicts the month (January (1) - December
(12). The three different colored lines correspond to the model being used for data. (Blue = MOS. Orange
= NOAH. Yellow = VIC) (Figure 6b) depicts the SWE climatology for the Cascade mountain range. The
climatology was produced through averaging the SWE of each month over the 36 year dataset for total
precipitation. The y-axis depicts mm of SWE., and the x-axis depicts the month (January (1) - December
(12). The three different colored lines correspond to the model being used for data. (Blue = MOS. Orange
= NOAH. Yellow = VIC)
Snowfall (mm) Climatology in Cascades (All Models) Snowfall (mm) Climatology in Sierras (All Models)

Month Value (Jan. - Dec.) Month Value (Jan. - Dec.)

Figure 7a/7b | (Figure 7a) depicts the snowfall climatology for the Cascade mountain range. The
climatology was produced through averaging the snowfall values of each month over the 36 year dataset.
The y-axis depicts snowfall in mm and the x-axis depicts the month (January (1) - December (12). The
three different colored lines correspond to the model being used for data. (Blue = MOS. Orange = NOAH.
Yellow = VIC) (Figure 7b) depicts the snowfall climatology for the Sierra Nevada mountain range. The
climatology was produced through averaging the snowfall values of each month over the 36 year dataset.
The y-axis depicts snowfall in mm and the x-axis depicts the month (January (1) - December (12). The
three different colored lines correspond to the model being used for data. (Blue = MOS. Orange = NOAH.
Yellow = VIC)

Correlation between Runoff and SWE in Sierras Correlation between Runoff and SWE in Sierras

Month Value (Jan. - Dec.) Month Value (Jan. - Dec.)

Figure 8a/8b | (Figure 8a) depicts the correlation between SWE and Runoff for each month (x-axis =
month) in the Sierra Nevada range. The three different trend lines each depict a different data model
(Orange = VIC, Yellow = MOS, Blue = NOAH). (Figure 8b) depicts the correlation between SWE and
 Runoff for each month (x-axis = month) in the Cascade range. The three different trend lines each depict
a different data model (Orange = VIC, Yellow = MOS, Blue = NOAH).

Sierra VIC Runoff for Drought and Non-Drought Years Cascade VIC Runoff for Drought and Non-Drought
Years

Month Value (Sep. - Aug.) Month Value (Sep. - Aug.)

Figure 9a/9b | (Figure 9a) depicts the average monthly runoff for the VIC model in the Sierra Range. The
blue line represents the non-snow drought years, and the orange line represents the snow drought years.
X-axis: September (9)-August (8). (Figure 9b) depicts the average monthly runoff for the VIC model in the
Sierra Range. The blue line represents the non-snow drought years, and the orange line represents the
snow drought years. X-axis: September (9)-August (8).

Sierra NOAH Runoff for Drought and Non-Drought Years Cascade NOAH Runoff for Drought and Non-Drought
Years

Month Value (Sep. - Aug.) Month Value (Sep. - Aug.)

Figure 10a/10b | (Figure 10a) depicts the average monthly runoff for the NOAH model in the Sierra
Range. The blue line represents the non-snow drought years, and the orange line represents the snow
drought years. X-axis: September (9)-August (8). ( Figure 10b) depicts the average monthly runoff for the
 NOAH model in the Sierra Range. The blue line represents the non-snow drought years, and the orange
line represents the snow drought years. X-axis: September (9)-August (8).

Sierra MOS Runoff for Drought and Non-Drought Years Cascade MOS Runoff for Drought and Non-Drought
Years

Month Value (Sep. - Aug.) Month Value (Sep. - Aug.)

Figure 11a/11b | (Figure 11a) depicts the average monthly runoff for the MOS model in the Sierra
Range. The blue line represents the non-snow drought years, and the orange line represents the snow
drought years. X-axis: September (9)-August (8). ( Figure 11b) depicts the average monthly runoff for the
MOS model in the Sierra Range. The blue line represents the non-snow drought years, and the orange
line represents the snow drought years. X-axis: September (9)-August (8).

SWE 36-Year Cascade Yearly Time Series SWE 36-Year Sierra Yearly Time Series

Year Year

Figure 12a/12b | (Figure 12a) depicts a SWE time series graph for the Cascade mountain range for the
months of April and March. Each point on the graph represents the SWE value for the month and year.
The series spans from 1979-2015. The y-axis depicts the SWE value in mm. (Figure 12b) depicts a SWE
time series graph for the Sierra mountain range for the months of April and March. Each point on the
graph represents the SWE value for the month and year. The series spans from 1979-2015. The y-axis
depicts the SWE value in mm.

Discussion:

Based on our results, I was able to conclude that SWE is the most highly

correlated variable to runoff in both the Cascades and Sierras during peak runoff

season. In both regions between the months of March and June, the SWE-Runoff

correlation value is in the range of 0.8 to 1.0 for both regions, which is an extremely high

value (See figures 5a/5b). This indicates that when SWE is high, runoff is also very

high, which aligns with the idea that a lesser snow pack will result in lower runoff values.

I also discovered that the correlation between TSurf and Runoff peaked during the

melting months of March-June for both locations, at a value of 0.4, which indicates that

the two variables are moderately correlated.

When comparing the runoff climatologies between non-snow drought years and

snow drought year (defined as years where October-March total precipitation is average

or above and March SWE is below average) I discovered that in the snow drought

years, the runoff value was much lower, and the start date was much earlier compared

to the non-snow drought years (See figures 6a/6b). This was relevant for both locations,

and for all three models. In particular, the VIC model snow drought climatology in the

Sierra Nevada range, showed a runoff peak date that was almost a month earlier than

the non-snow drought climatology.

Another concerning figure that I was able to extract was one that showed SWE

values for March and April over all 36 years of data in both locations. Over the entirety
of the dataset year range, the figures make it clear that the recent West Coast drought

is unprecedented and is something these areas have not seen for a long time. In the

Sierra Nevada range, the VIC model shows that the March and April SWE has been

below a value of 25 mm for the past 4 years, which has not occurred since late 1980s.

Even then, the SWE values for April rose above 25 mm during two of the four year snow

drought stretch. Additionally, for the Cascade Mountains, 2014-2015 have had the two

lowest SWE values over the entirety of the 36 year dataset, and based on the trend line

for this figure, the drought appears to continue to be worsening. Also due to the already

proven high correlation between runoff and SWE, I can assume that these record

setting years for low SWE, also means extremely low runoff values and even much

earlier runoff start dates. This is extremely concerning for West Coast residents as their

water supply is not being replenished by the melting snow and eventual runoff. Although

the 2011-2015 period has been extremely dry throughout the West Coast, it is not

possible to claim that the frequency of such events are increasing in both ranges due to

close to no trend in the general March-April yearly SWE values.

While analyzing snow drought, our data led us to believe that the year

prior to a defined snow drought was the greatest indicator of such event. For the

Cascades, the temperature the year before a snow drought was on average 0.23 C

warmer than the average yearly temperature for the location. Additionally, during April,

the peak runoff period, the average temperature during the year before a snow drought

was 0.75 C warmer than the average April temperature. The Sierra Nevadas also saw a

similar increase in temperature during years before a snow drought. This statistic is
extremely important because in both regions the snowfrac was on average much lower

in years prior to a snow drought, and rainfall was almost 100% higher compared to the

yearly average, which indicates that although the precipitation may not be decreasing,

the majority of it is falling in the form of rain. This is extremely detrimental to the region,

as more precipitation falling as rain means there is less of a snowpack buildup during

the winter, leading to lower SWE, which ends up causing a snow drought. Since the

higher temperatures is what leads to a lower snowfrac, it can be assumed that

temperature the year before a snow drought is the greatest indicator for such event

occurring in the upcoming year.

Conclusion:

Based on our results, the Western portion of the United States is experiencing

one of the worst snow droughts out of the past 36 years and due to the general trend of

the SWE values, will not return to their average yearly SWE value in 2016. Additionally,

due to the extremely low SWE values and the earlier peak runoff dates, it can be

assumed that water levels in reservoirs will remain very low. Higher than average

temperatures in 2015 could also lead to a 2016 snow drought based on our conclusion

that temperature the year before a snow drought is one of the greatest indicators of an

upcoming snow drought. It is imperative that California and surrounding regions

continue to monitor temperature and SWE values for the Cascade and Sierra Nevada

mountain ranges, and should take action to attempt to conserve as much water as
possible due to the suggestion from our results that the current snow drought may not

end within the next year.

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