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NAFTAsFutureandRegionalSecurity
Cooperation
byRichardW.Coughlin March7,2015 11minread original

NAFTAsfutureisconstrainedbymultipleparadoxes.Beforeturningtothese,consider
howonemightthinkaboutNAFTAasaformofregionalism.LarnerandWalters
characterizeregionalismas

anewkindofinternationalizedgovernmentthatemergedsincethe1970stodealwith
anincreasinglyglobalandmarketdrivensociety.Regionalalliancescanbeunderstood
asacollectiveresponse,awayinwhichstatescanwinbacksomecontroloverotherwise
undisciplinedeconomicandsocialforces(2004:409).

Regionalisminvolvestheeorttoconstructpoliticalinstitutionsthatcanshapeeconomic
owsofworkers,trade,investmentandnanceinwaysthatcancreateorenhance
comparativeadvantageforstatesandregions.Buttherearequestionsthatcanberaised
aboutpoliticalresilienceandsustainabilityofregionalism,andofNAFTA,inparticular.

NAFTAisdeeplyenmeshedinwhatAshby(2014)termstheborderparadox,whichis
thataseconomicintegrationbetweentheUnitedStatesandMexicohasdeepened,issues
ofbordersecurityfortheUnitedStateshavebecomeincreasinglypronounced.Border
securityfortheU.S.isapoliticalproblem,notmerelyatechnicalone,rootedinconicting
conceptionsofAmericanidentityandpurpose.Theclashisbetweenimperativestopry
opennewspacesfortradeandinvestmentforU.S.corporationsandtheprotectionthe
U.S.domesticsocietyfrombeingpenetratedbyforeignactorswhoposethreatstoits
identityandsecurity(Coleman,2005).

InthecaseoftheU.S.Mexicanborder,thisclashiscomplicatedbytheissuesof
immigrationandtransnationaldrugtracking.Undertheweightofthedebtcrisisand
structuraladjustmentpolicies,economicliberalizationofMexicoresultedinsuddencuts
toagrariansubsidiesandtradetarisand,inaddition,afarreachingprivatizationofthe
Mexicaneconomy.Peasantandworkerswerepushedintothemigrantstream,provoking
bordermilitarizationintheUnitedStatesevenastheU.S.pursuedNAFTA.Bysecuring
theborder,U.S.policymakerscouldcreatetheconditionsfordeepereconomicintegration
withMexico(Andreas,2000).Thiswas,however,justatemporaryresolutionofthe
borderparadox.

Theborderparadoxreasserteditselfwiththeeventsof9/11andtheimplementationof
securitymeasuresthatimpairedthatoperationofthetransnationalcommoditychainsset
inplacebyeconomicintegration.Itisnoteworthythatintheweekspriortothe9/11
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aacks,theUnitedStateshadbeennegotiatingafarreachingimmigrationagreementwith
Mexicowhichsought,bymeansofanewguestworkerprogram,toestablishlegal
channelsinwhichundocumentedlabormigrantscouldmove.Thispossibilityquickly
recededasU.S.bordersbecamenewlyinvestedwithdanger.

Inthewakeof9/11,U.S.,MexicanandCanadianpolicymakersundertookeortsto
deepenNAFTAthroughpartnershipagreements(termedthepartnershipforSecurity,
PeaceandProsperityorSPP),whichwereconcernedwithcreatingaregionalsecurityasa
wayofdiminishingtheseverityoftheborderparadox.Inajointstatement,policymakers
fromtheU.S.,MexicoandCanadasignaledtheircommitmenttothelongtermgoalof
dramaticallydiminishingtheneedforthecurrentintensityofthegovernmentsphysical
controloftrac,travel,andtradewithinNorthAmerica(Manley,2005).TheSPP
soughttocontrolmobilityregionallyratherthanonlyatthepointoftheborder,through
thedevelopmentofpreclearanceprogramsforthecirculationofpeople(intheformof
trustedtravelers)andgoods.ThroughthemanagementofmobilitytheSPPimagined
theNAFTAregionnotonlyasageographicspace,butasapopulationofrational,utility
maximizingsubjectswhosehealth,securityandwellbeingshouldbecometheobjectof
statepolicies(Gilbert,2007).

Thisprojectwasalsomarked,however,bywhatOng(1999)hastermedexible
citizenship,entailingastraticationofsubjectsinrelationshiptotheprotmaking
objectivesofregionalintegration.Thisstraticationwasrootednotonlyintheproduction
ofeconomicvalue,butalsointhedistinctionbetweenlicitandillicitformofglobalization
thatis,betweenourglobalizationoflegitimatetrade,investmentandtravelandtheir
globalizationnarcotracking,humantracking,illegalmigrationandterrorism
(Amoore,2006).Inthiscontext,bordersecurityhasoperatedparadoxicallytointensify
thesedierentformsillicitcommerce.Theriskpremiumsassociatedwithgreaterborder
securityenabledtrackerstochargehigherpricesfortheprovisionofillicitcommerce.
Paradoxically,increasedbordersecurityendsupactingasaforcemultiplierfor
transnationalorganizedcrime,spurringittoadaptandprovidingthoseorganizationsthat
doadaptwithimmensenancialrewards.

Thecounterproductivecharacterofbordersecurityisnoteasyforpolicymakersto
disavow.CitizensoftheUnitedStateshavealargepsychologicalinvestmentinthe
territorialintegrityoftheUnitedStates.Itisnotdicultforpoliticiansatboththestate
andfederallevelstosecuritizethebordertoname,thatis,theborderasasecurity
issuethatthreatensthecollectivewayoflifethroughtheactivitiesofmigrants,drug
trackers,andpotentialterrorists(Williams,2003).Manyoftheseclaimsareformulated
bylegislatorsandgovernorsfromtheSunbeltregionoftheUnitedStates.Thesehave
resultedinaseriesoffederalandstatestatutesdirectedagainstnoncitizens.

TheselegislativeenactmentspointtowardabifurcationofsovereigntyintheUnitedStates
inwhichthestate,insomerespects,isorientedtowardactinggloballyorregionallyin
somecontextsandnationallyinothers.Thereisatensioninherentinthesemodesof
action,suchthat,asCastellshasargued,

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themorethatstatesemphasizecommunalism[visavistheirnationalsociety],theless
eectivetheybecomeascoagentsofaglobal[orregional]systemofsharedpower.They
moretheytriumphintheplanetary[orregional]scenethelesstheyrepresenttheir
nationalsecurity(1997:308).

Thesetensionsbetweenglobal/regionalandnationmaterializearoundbordersbetween
outsideandinsidethestate.Thesebordersdonotcoincidewithnationalboundaries.
Therehasbeen,rather,adiusionofbordersinconjunctionwithincreasedvolumeof
transnationaleconomicowssothatitisthegeographicalbreadthoftheseowsrather
thanthespaceoftheborderpersethatformstheterrainofregionalsecurity.Onecan
think,inthisregard,ofaproliferationoftheborderintothespacesofeverydaylifeand,
correspondingly,arecruitmentofcitizens,rmsandnonfederallawenforcement
agenciesintotheregulationoftheseborders(Amoore,2006).

Themanagementofbordersbecomes,inconsequence,awayofmanagingthelargercrisis
ofsovereignty.Thestateasamanagerofglobalismorregionalismalsoemergesasthe
statethatisconcerned,domestically,withsecuringtheproliferatingbordersbetween
insideandoutside,whichglobalizationhasnowspreadovertheentiresurfaceofsociety.
Politicsattheregionalanddomesticlevelsaresuperimposedupononeanotherinan
unevenandvariegatedfashion.Drawingthisconnectionenablesustothinkabovethe
developmentalpossibilitiesofNAFTAintermsofbothU.S.andMexicandomestic
politics.

WithintheUnitedStates,theformulationofdenationalizingpolicyagendas(Sassen,
2006)havevestednewrightsincorporateactorswhilerestructuringthepowersofthe
state.Sincethe1970s,thesepolicieshavebeendrivenbyapervasiveantiWashington
ethos,whichhascenteredonexpandingthepowerofmarketforces,butalsoon
expandingthescopeofthestatessocialcontroloverthosesocialgroupsthatwere
deemedtobeincapableofexercisingthenewmarketfreedoms.WheretheNewDeal
statehadoncepursuedpoliciesrehabilitation,thecriminaljusticesystem,atboththestate
andnationlevels,turnedinthedirectionofpenalseverity:overalllevelsofincarceration
intheU.S.increasedsixfoldsincethe1970s(Garland,2001).TheWaronDrugsdeclared
bytheReaganadministrationservedasapoliticalcenterpieceforthisrevolutioninpenal
severityandalsobroughtmigrantswithintheframeworkofthenewsocialcontrolpolicy
agenda.

Butthispolicyagendaisnowdisintegrating.Massincarcerationisnowregardedas
scallyunsustainableandmorallyproblematic.Inseveralstates,therecreationaluseof
marijuanahasbeenapproved,adevelopmentthatmarksaretreatfromthedrugwarsof
1980s.Additionally,thefusionofthecriminaljusticeandimmigrationsystemsinthe
UnitedStatesisrunningintotheheadwindsofanincreasinglypowerfulLatinovoting
blocwithinU.S.presidentialpolitics.Initsrecentmovestoprotectundocumented
immigrantsfromdeportation,theObamaadministrationhasendedtheSecure
Communitiesprogram,alynchpinofthedeportationsystem.Thesocialandeconomic
exclusionsthathelpedtodrivetheimplementationofdenationalizingpolicyagendasare

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weakening.Thisopensthepossibilityfortheemergenceofamultiethnic,progressive
policymajorityintheUnitedStatesthatmaybeinclinedtowardchallengingthepolitical
andeconomiccommitmentsassociatedwithneoliberalism.

ThesepoliticaldevelopmentsintheUnitedStateshavebeenmetbyaverydierentsetof
politicalandeconomicdevelopmentswithinMexicowhereaconjunctureofneoliberal
economicrestructuringandpartialdemocratizationofthestatehasresultedinthe
emergenceofadeeplyfracturedpoliticalorder.Wecanthinkaboutthesepointswith
respecttothegrowingpowerofdrugcartelsinMexico.DuringtheeraofPRIdominance,
from1930to1980,drugcartelswere,likeothersocialactors,suchasthepeasantsector
andtheworkersmovement,subjecttocorporatistcontrolthroughthepartyandthestate
(WaandZepeda,2012).ThearmyandthePRIallocatedplazastodrugtracking
groupswithinparticularjurisdictionsinexchangeforprotectionmoney.Thesedrug
trackersreceivedprotectionfromthestatewhileunrecognizedgroupsweresubjectto
judicialprosecutionandextrajudicialviolence.

Inthe1980s,drugtrackingnetworkslinkingColombiatotheUnitedStatesshiftedfrom
theCaribbeanandFloridatoMexico.Thiswasdue,inpart,toU.S.interdictionpoliciesin
FloridaandtheCaribbean,butalsotoeconomicneoliberalizationinMexico.Starting
withthedebtcrisisof1982,economicneoliberalizationdismantledMexicossystemof
importsubstitutionindustrializationandexpelledworkersfromtheeconomicsectorsthat
hadbeenintegraltothismodelofdevelopmentsuchastheejidos,protectedindustries,
andthepublicsector.Structuraladjustmentpolicieswereimplementedinthecontextof
demandsforscalausterity.Attheverymomentwhenthenationaleconomywasbeing
dismantled,thecapacityofthestatetomaintaincorporatistcontroloverMexicansociety
wasalsoweakening.Inthecontextofthesechanges,therapidexpansionofborder
industrializationandtheconcomitantgrowthofintrarmtradebetweenMexicoandthe
UnitedStatescreatedopeningsfortheexpansionofdrugtrackingnetworksthrough
Mexico.

Cartelrevenuesareestimatedtobebetween$20and$50billionperyear.Theupperrange
ofthisestimatesigniesrevenueslargerthanMexicosnexttwolargestexportearners
remiancesandoilcombined(HillandZepeda,2012:169).Theexpansionofdrug
trackingandtheweakeningofthestatereversedthehistoricalrelationshipbetweenthe
two.Beginninginthe1990s,thedrugcartelsexerteddirectcontroloverthestatein
variousjurisdictionsandindirectlybymeansofcorruptionextendingtothehighestlevels
ofthestate.

TheregionalpolicyresponsetothesedevelopmentshasbeentheMeridaInitiativethe
provisionofU.S.militaryandforeignaidorientedtowardstrengtheningthemilitary,
police,andjudicialsinewsoftheMexicanstate.ThesepoliciesareareectionofU.S.
strategicinterests,whichconsistofmaintainingeconomicliberalizationwhilemanaging
thesecurityrisksthatgoalongwithit.AsAshby(2014)observes,takingontransnational
organizedcrimeisausefulpretextforregionalizingsecuritycooperation.Realistically,
theobjectiveofMeridaisnottheeliminationofnarcotracking.TheMexicanstate
undertheruleofthePartidodeAccionNacional(PAN)hassoughttoaccommodatethe
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mostpowerfuldrugcartelsmostsignicantly,theJuarezCartel(HillandZepeda,2012:
14179).WhileunderPresidentCalderon(20062012),theMexicanmilitaryintensiedits
counterdrugoperations,thesepolicieshavenotaddressedmoneylaunderingoperations
fromwhichelitesinbothMexicoandtheUnitedStateshavebeneted.

Thereis,inthisrespect,aclassdimensiontotheMeridaledghtagainsttransnational
criminalorganizations.MeridaisnotsodierentfromPlanColombia,whichprovided
billionsinmilitaryaidtotheColombianstate.Widelylaudedasaforeignpolicysuccess,
PlanColombiasucceedednotineliminatingnarcotracking,butinstrengtheningthe
ColombiaasananchorstatefortheprojectionofU.S.militaryandeconomicinuenceinto
LatinAmerica.Oneshouldnote,however,thattherelativesecurityestablishedbyPlan
ColombiahascreatedconditionsinwhichdemocraticforcesinColombiancivilsocietycan
challengeconservativecontrolovertheColombianstate(Hough,2015).Onemighthope
forasimilaroutcomeinMexico,butthisshouldnotdistractaentionfromthecentral
pointofU.S.securitypolicyinbothofthesecountries,whichistostabilizeprocessesof
neoliberalizationbymeansorderingsocietiesthathavebeendisorderedbyneoliberal
economicrestructuring.AsRogers(2010)hasremarked,suchpoliciesaretantamountto
keepingthelidonexistingconictsinaworldwheretherevolutionofrisingexpectations
associatedwiththepostWorldWarTwodevelopmentprojecthasbeenreplacedbythe
revolutionoffrustratedexpectationsstemmingfromglobalneoliberalization.

Keepingthelidonexistingconictsmay,infact,provetobeatallordergivennotonlythe
economicinequalitiesassociatedwithneoliberalism,butalsowiththedestabilizing
impactsofclimatechange.Theseareemergingmostrapidlywithintheglobalsouth.
Societiesoftheglobalsouth,besetwithpoliticalconictandmassiveeconomic
dislocation,areunlikelytobeabletoadapteectivelytothechallengesofclimatechange.
ThisisthesituationofMexico.InParentiswords,

Alandofbillionairesandhungrymasses,ofdroughtandood,whosesocialstructure
andinstitutionsareinfectedwiththegangreneofnarcocorruption,isnotonethatcan
adapttorisingsealevels,extremeweather,decliningcropyieldsandthemass
migrationstheseprocesseswillsetintomotion(2011:205).

WhiletheMeridaInitiativecouldestablishpoliticalspaceforthemobilizationof
democraticforcesinMexico,processesofclimatechangearealsolikelytointensifythe
provisionofbordersecurityonthepartoftheUnitedStates.Theseresponsesmaybe
counteredbytheemergenceofprogressivepoliticalcoalitionsintheUnitedStates,but
deeplyentrenchedconceptionsoftheU.S.asanexceptionalspacethatmustbesecured
fromundesirableforeignelementsisalsolikelytoremainstrong,perhapseven
overpowering.Inthisseing,itwillbedicultfortheUnitedStatestomaintainitscore
interestofsecuringitseconomicintegrationwithMexico.TheultimatefateofNAFTA
mightbethattheforcesithasunleashedmassmigrationsandtransnationalorganized
crimeare,inworldbesetwithclimatechange,toopowerfulanddestabilizingtocontain.

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