VAN Determinstico

Laboratorio 4
Simulacin Montecarlo: Evaluacin de un Proyecto de Inversin.

Adicin de un nuevo producto a la linea de PROTRAC

Datos La demanda es
Costo de arranque $ 150,000 Costo variable 75% de los ingresos estimada
Precio de venta $ 35,000 Costo de capital 10%
Costo fijo $ 15,000 Tasa de Impuesto 34%
Valor de rescate del
Depreciacin/Ao $ 10,000 equipo 0%
Demanda/Ao 10.0 unidades

Ao 0 1 2 3 4
Demanda 0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0
Ingresos 350,000 350,000 350,000 350,000
Costo fijo 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000
Costo variable 262,500 262,500 262,500 262,500
Depreciacin 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000
Gan. Antes Imp. 62,500 62,500 62,500 62,500
Impuesto 21,250 21,250 21,250 21,250
Gan. Despues Imp. 41,250 41,250 41,250 41,250
Flujo neto (150,000) 51,250 51,250 51,250 51,250
Valor Presnte Neto
VPN $12,455.60

Page 1
 VAN Determinstico

ecto de Inversin.

La demanda es
estimada

Page 2
 Demanda aleatoria

Datos
Costo de arranque $ 150,000 Costo variable 75% de ingresos La gerenc
Costo de sigue una d
Precio de venta $ 35,000 capital 10% discreta
Tasa de unidade
Costo fijo $ 15,000 Impuesto 34% demanda c
Valor de rescate
Depreciacin/Ao 10000 Equip. 0
Demanda/Ao unidades

Ao 0 1 2 3 4
Demanda 10.0 12.0 11.0 10.0
Ingresos 350,000 420,000 385,000 350,000
Costo fijo 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000
Costo variable 262,500 315,000 288,750 262,500
Depreciacin 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000
Gan. Antes Imp. 62,500 80,000 71,250 62,500
Impuesto 21,250 27,200 24,225 21,250
Gan. Despues Imp. 41,250 52,800 47,025 41,250
Flujo neto (150,000) 51,250 62,800 57,025 51,250

VPN $26,339.90

El VPN tambien es una variable aleatoria. Interesar conocer:

1.- Cual es el valor esperado para el VPN? y
2.- Cul es la probabilidad que el VPN asuma un valor negativo?

Page 3
 Demanda aleatoria

La gerencia estima que la demanda

sigue una distribucin de probabilidad
discreta uniforme entre 8 y 13
unidades. Todos los valores de
demanda con la misma probabilidad.

er:

ativo?

Page 4
 Resultados Contiene los
por medio valores de
de tabla de una muestra
datos. -simulacin.

Simulacin # VPN Simulacin # VPN Columna1

1 26340 1 (904) Columna1
2 26340 2 12152
3 26340 3 (940) Media 12850.8002124
4 26340 4 12471 Error tpico 1063.72173728
5 26340 5 27571 Mediana 12452.8099794
6 26340 6 9702 Moda 12470.7390827
7 26340 7 (6900) Desviacin estndar 10637.2173728
8 26340 8 16171 Varianza de la muestra 113150393.437
9 26340 9 8960 Curtosis -0.4404774961
10 26340 10 11284 Coeficiente de asimetra -0.0060732293
11 26340 11 10534 Rango 51036.9851786
12 26340 12 13647 Mnimo -14788.669428
13 26340 13 7343 Mximo 36248.3157509
14 26340 14 12116 Suma 1285080.02124
15 26340 15 21980 Cuenta 100
16 26340 16 (582) Nivel de confianza(95.0%)2110.65470289
17 26340 17 21586 Recuerde: para P(z=1.96) =95%
18 26340 18 9000 Limite Inferior =
19 26340 19 (14789) Limite Superior =
20 26340 20 (5752)
21 26340 21 30289
22 26340 22 10889
23 26340 23 1817
24 26340 24 22005 His
25 26340 25 22439
26 26340 26 22873
27 26340 27 10172 30
28 26340 28 8171 25
29 26340 29 14400 Frecuencia
20
30 26340 30 3793
31 26340 31 (1769) 15
32 26340 32 (6147) 10
33 26340 33 12471
5
34 26340 34 10965
35 26340 35 14041 0
36 26340 36 5762
37 26340 37 36248
38 26340 38 17272
39 26340 39 24057
40 26340 40 4586
41 26340 41 (585)
42 26340 42 12550
Clase
43 26340 43 5045
44 26340 44 20869
45 26340 45 33132
54 26340 54 9319
 55 26340 55 13683 ANALISIS DE RESULTADOS:
56 26340 56 10097 1.- Se han tomado 100 muestras y su distribucin se pu
57 26340 57 23626 2.- El valor medio del VPN en la muestra es
58 26340 58 3001 3.- La desviacin estndar en la muestra es
59 26340 59 1817 4.- El intervalo de confianza al 95% es
60 26340 60 (1449)
61 26340 61 8989 Significa que el 95 % de los resultados posibles el VPN
62 26340 62 13733 intervalo.
63 26340 63 26319
64 26340 64 (4605) 5.- Existe el 13 % de probabilidad que el VPN asuma u
65 26340 65 5414 6.- En el modelo base la recomendacin habra sido dir
66 26340 66 13299 un VPN esperado de aprox. $ 11323. Sin embargo a la
67 26340 67 21622 cambia de manera importante.
68 26340 68 17233
69 26340 69 17602
70 26340 70 7339
71 26340 71 7777
72 26340 72 (3737)
73 26340 73 (546)
74 26340 74 14005
75 26340 75 27251
76 26340 76 8057
77 26340 77 27890
78 26340 78 15587
79 26340 79 (546)
80 26340 80 14156
81 26340 81 30264
82 26340 82 12435
83 26340 83 25516
84 26340 84 12076
85 26340 85 24060
86 26340 86 25132
87 26340 87 28399
88 26340 88 23945
89 26340 89 32662
90 26340 90 9383
91 26340 91 18814
92 26340 92 1853
93 26340 93 4187
94 26340 94 2925
95 26340 95 27646
96 26340 96 12471
97 26340 97 26319
98 26340 98 11721
99 26340 99 33491
100 26340 100 (5677)
 Los lmites inferior y superior tambin se obtienen
al restar o sumar a la media (12850.8) el valor del
nivel de confianza (2110.65). Habr una diferencia
debido a los redondeos.
Lmite inferior=12850.8-
2110.65=10742.15
Lmite
superior=12850.8+2110.65=14961.45

Clase Frecuencia % acumulado

-14788.6694 1 1.00%
-9684.97091 0 1.00%
-4581.27239 5 6.00%
522.426126 9 15.00%
5626.12464 10 25.00%
10729.8232 16 41.00%
15833.5217 25 66.00%
20937.2202 7 73.00%
26040.9187 14 87.00%
10766 31144.6172 9 96.00%
14936 y mayor... 4 100.00%

Histograma

120.00%
100.00%
80.00%
Frecuencia
60.00%
% acumulado
40.00%
20.00%
.00%

Clase
DOS:
ras y su distribucin se puede aproximar a una normal.
la muestra es 12850.8
la muestra es 10637.2 434.68
Limite Inferior 10765.9
Limite Superi 14935.7 Clculo del tamao de la
esultados posibles el VPN se encontrar en este muestra para alcanzar un
intervalo de confidencia del
95% y un margen de error
de aproximadamente 8%
dad que el VPN asuma un valor negativo
mendacin habra sido directa por la inversin ya que encontramos
11323. Sin embargo a la luz de la simulacin, esta situacin
e.
EJERCICIO 1 EJERCICIO 2

Considere el ejercicio resuelto de la Prctica de PANCHITA

Laboratorio Nro 4 "Evaluacin de un proyecto de Panchita desea poner
inversin", redisee la plantilla excel de tal manera centro comercial de Ar
que se obtenga el VPN considerando tambin como y determin que su inv
aleatorias las siguientes variables: costos fijos mensuales
Precio de venta: UNIF(30000,45000) dlares alcanzarn el 55% de
Costo de capital: NORM(9,2) % 14.00 por unidad. El im
Costo Fijo: UNIF(15000,25000) dlares capital es 8% anual. D
Se pide: segura de la demanda
a) La tabla excel del flujo de efectivo. NORM(600,50) unidad
b) Una muestra de 250 resultados para el VPN. hacer una pequea pu
c) El histograma respectivo. 600 unidades, el siguie
d) El reporte estadsco. por el siguiente mes, l
e) El anlisis de los resultados en relacin a la decisin siguiente distribucin:
de inversin. Costo en s
500 0.40
Anexo:
800 0.35
1 000 0.25
Ciertamente ella cree
primer mes. Ms an,
superiores a 600 unida
siguiente mes tendr q
y slo por un mes a un
mensuales. Desarrolle
0, Mes 1, , Mes 6) de
simulacin con 1000 e
a) Determine y com
para el VPN.
b) Es significativa l
en ese periodo?
JERCICIO 2 EJERCICIO 3

PANCHITA
Panchita desea poner una tienda de dulces en un importante
centro comercial de Arequipa. Ha desarrollado su plan de negocio
y determin que su inversin inicial deber ser de S/. 6000. Los
costos fijos mensuales sern de S/. 1500 y los costos variables
alcanzarn el 55% de los ingresos. Planea vender los dulces a S/.
14.00 por unidad. El impuesto a la renta es 30% y su costo de
capital es 8% anual. Desafortunadamente Panchita no est
segura de la demanda. Su asesor le sugiere que seguir una
NORM(600,50) unidades-mensual. Adicionalmente sabe que debe
hacer una pequea publicidad. Si sus ventas son menores que
600 unidades, el siguiente mes har esta campaa y nicamente
por el siguiente mes, las veces que este sea necesario, bajo la
siguiente distribucin:
Costo en s/. Probabilidad
500 0.40
800 0.35
1 000 0.25
Ciertamente ella cree que no ser necesario hacer publicidad el
primer mes. Ms an, si sus ventas en un mes dado son
superiores a 600 unidades y en ese mes hizo publicidad el
siguiente mes tendr que contratar un asistente a medio tiempo
y slo por un mes a un costo que flucta entre s/. 500 y s/. 700
mensuales. Desarrolle un anlisis para los primeros 6 meses (Mes
0, Mes 1, , Mes 6) de operacin del negocio y efecte una
simulacin con 1000 ensayos.
a) Determine y comente el intervalo de confianza al 95%
para el VPN.
b) Es significativa la probabilidad de que pierda dinero
en ese periodo?
EJERCICIO 4

Ud. maneja el proyecto de un nuevo telfono

deber adicionar a la empresa IAQP una nuev
Los costos de puesta en marcha para el nuevo
S3 (que incluye compra de equipos de automa
capacitacin de empleados, etc) estn estima
nuevo producto ser vendido a un precio que
forma normal con media de $40 y desviacin
unidad. Los costos fijos estn estimados en $2
mientras que el costo variable tiene una distri
entre 70% y 80% de los ingresos totales de ca
contable sobre las nuevas instalaciones ser d
depreciacin de $15000 por ao durante los p
se considera valor de salvamento. El CPPC (Co
ponderado de capital o costo de oportunidad)
impuesto a la renta es de 30%.
Ante la incetidumbre de iniciar la produccin o
utilizar el mtodo de la TIR para evaluar si imp
o no, pero adems deber utilizar el mtodo d
tomar una decisin ms certera analizando m
(2000 iteraciones). Para esto la demanda ser
10000 a 15000 unidades por ao. Se pide:
a) Calcular la TIR media de 700 iteraciones.
b) Determine y comente el intervalo de confia
TIR.
b) Cul es el mximo TIR que se puede dar?
c) inteprete los datos y sugiera una accion a a
cto de un nuevo telfono inteligente por lo que
empresa IAQP una nueva lnea de produccin:
en marcha para el nuevo telfono CHARACAT
pra de equipos de automatizacin,
leados, etc) estn estimados en $200000. El
vendido a un precio que se comporta de
edia de $40 y desviacin estndar de $15 por
os estn estimados en $20000 al ao,
o variable tiene una distribucin uniforme
los ingresos totales de cada ao. La vida til
uevas instalaciones ser de 5 aos y la
000 por ao durante los prximos 5 aos. no
e salvamento. El CPPC (Costo promedio
l o costo de oportunidad) es de 14.5% y el
es de 30%.
de iniciar la produccin o no Ud. deber
la TIR para evaluar si implementa el proyecto
eber utilizar el mtodo de Montecarlo para
ms certera analizando ms de un escenario
ara esto la demanda ser uniforme entre
ades por ao. Se pide:
dia de 700 iteraciones.
nte el intervalo de confianza al 95% para la

TIR que se puede dar?

s y sugiera una accion a aseguir.
Datos
Costo
Costo de arranque $ 6,000 variable 50% de ingresos Costo Publicidad:
Costo de
Precio de venta $ 4 capital 8.00% 500 0
Tasa de
Costo fijo $ 1,500 Impuesto 30% 800 0.35
Valor de
rescate Equip. 0
Depreciacin/Ao 1000 0.75
Demanda/
Ao aleatoria unidades

Ao 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Demanda 579.0 566.0 604.0 515.0 615.0 582.0
Ingresos 2,316 2,264 2,416 2,060 2,460 2,328
Costo fijo 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500
Costo variable 1,158 1,132 1,208 1,030 1,230 1,164
Publicidad - 500 1,000 - 500 -
Asistente - - - 683 - 659
Gan. Antes Imp. (342) (868) (1,292) (1,153) (770) (995)
Impuesto (103) (260) (388) (346) (231) (298)
Gan. Despues Imp. (239) (608) (904) (807) (539) (696)
Flujo neto (6,000) (239) (608) (904) (807) (539) (696)

VPN ($8,859.74)

Histograma
70
60
50
40
Frecuencia 30
20
10
0

Clase
 El intervalo de confianza al 95% es:
Lmite Superior=-8237+37=-8200
Lmite Inferior=-8237-37=-8274
As mismo la media es negativa, lo cual implica
que la probabilidad de que el VAN sea negativo
es altsima.

n ($8,859.74) Muestra Columna1 Clase Frecuencia

1 3034.83925 -7846.65792 -9660.69753 1
2 1988.50632 -9017.21747 Media -8236.95198 -9561.88752 0
3 1457.03592 -8749.89347 Error tpico 18.8275237 -9463.07751 3
4 2185.75252 -7608.28208 Mediana -8265.24271 -9364.2675 9
5 3728.48001 -7976.03057 Moda Err:512 -9265.45749 12
6 2519.75759 -8830.27104 Desviacin es 595.378575 -9166.64748 14
7 509.386916 -8734.16559 Varianza de l 354475.647 -9067.83747 33
8 4145.92385 -6822.97865 Curtosis -0.45570089 -8969.02746 36
9 1576.59269 -8211.89871 Coeficiente d 0.26117494 -8870.21745 55
10 1922.72121 -9200.16213 Rango 3063.11029 -8771.40744 46
11 2861.35687 -7288.23975 Mnimo -9660.69753 -8672.59743 53
12 1880.88066 -8650.636 Mximo -6597.58724 -8573.78742 53
13 1157.41008 -8359.236 Suma -8236952 -8474.97741 66
14 1253.39707 -7699.27034 Cuenta 1000 -8376.1674 55
15 1866.20833 -6760.71586 Nivel de conf 36.9460303 -8277.35739 58
16 2195.92359 -7344.0888 -8178.54739 61
17 3359.47257 -8850.81048 -8079.73738 62
18 2672.22736 -8327.66542 -7980.92737 57
19 4500.29398 -8159.65668 -7882.11736 34
20 2846.71257 -8284.49112 -7783.30735 51
21 2781.57544 -8994.21948 -7684.49734 40
22 498.00131 -7383.11107 -7585.68733 53
23 2506.93872 -9134.3836 -7486.87732 32
24 2699.70382 -8667.57651 -7388.06731 34
25 2203.39088 -9285.03215 -7289.2573 27
26 2307.80955 -7723.84171 -7190.44729 16
27 2038.22873 -8539.23873 -7091.63728 11
28 2467.73457 -6711.79569 -6992.82727 4
29 1452.73411 -7598.19831 -6894.01726 1
30 2597.03176 -8989.68941 -6795.20726 9
31 1941.93281 -8353.77119 -6696.39725 9
32 1876.49394 -9237.87512 y mayor... 5
33 3899.99505 -7585.92826
34 2105.22425 -8138.34985
35 2177.53856 -7442.63592
36 3383.07755 -9015.59701
37 2814.03345 -8310.54988
38 3583.83949 -8835.67279
39 1857.82574 -8203.14651
40 2666.28236 -7663.89184
41 3792.37535 -8633.85664
42 3898.42003 -8323.46484
43 1785.2398 -8168.0641
44 2912.1777 -8886.17206
45 2954.73714 -8216.80652
46 1090.6542 -8241.63372
47 2460.84116 -7504.00404
48 1062.43757 -8610.00829
49 2684.14869 -8407.80162
50 1777.7777 -8124.52078
51 3287.69629 -8864.32256
52 2606.50291 -7151.27905
53 2680.7691 -8210.45642
54 1630.89949 -8884.95886
55 3567.2437 -8665.74954
56 1667.89141 -7925.63859
57 2598.19624 -8507.86617
58 3420.28066 -8162.85289
59 2853.14869 -7437.66739
60 1733.03031 -8813.84565
61 1765.75103 -7839.65808
62 2666.90779 -7588.49042
63 4309.124 -9453.53258
64 3644.34805 -8639.81776
65 1880.62211 -8179.80332
66 2681.79106 -8145.25171
67 3522.19852 -9310.71584
68 649.447396 -7726.72217
69 882.637516 -8533.27897
70 1444.96771 -7419.00988
71 3554.29009 -7674.97353
72 2035.14218 -7599.49987
73 1461.58453 -8156.54721
74 2581.3792 -7743.69821
75 1308.1523 -7672.83627
76 3170.4902 -8858.15767
77 1711.20137 -7804.67439
78 1718.3629 -6652.73671
79 3187.67801 -8026.31257
80 2393.07846 -8127.17678
81 3137.44951 -7677.48064
82 1429.24874 -8354.32471
83 2351.69476 -8520.89902
84 2544.88996 -7813.31087
85 3171.04255 -9371.72485
86 3490.31666 -7224.25018
87 1466.7835 -8579.23863
88 2090.25633 -7915.41015
89 2739.45035 -9087.51366
 90 910.829528 -8957.22564
91 3120.81257 -9007.01339
92 1986.42834 -8866.9763
93 2315.3766 -7588.28767
94 2250.04853 -8734.81113
95 2407.05683 -8830.32679
96 2102.84451 -8630.27726
97 2797.82345 -7386.29233
98 3697.69272 -8129.94962
99 2922.81006 -7436.64469
100 2515.91618 -7994.55953
101 1864.60513 -8943.58211
102 1550.19181 -8513.52017
103 1884.3857 -9002.52951
104 3523.95536 -8307.55373
105 3414.36965 -8419.88542
106 5119.27094 -7987.78408
107 3083.71375 -8887.50205
108 3478.74964 -8853.69457
109 2021.93276 -8178.29985
110 2671.09776 -7820.11339
111 2475.16047 -8502.43948
112 2239.0922 -8558.35062
113 3285.89062 -7348.98875
114 1562.11169 -7990.45045
115 2030.90175 -8015.36484
116 2133.41279 -8052.2617
117 1810.97638 -7251.76148
118 1435.59211 -8182.59037
119 3203.45347 -8890.78157
120 2960.51128 -7876.57948
121 2597.23352 -8492.27609
122 1812.04887 -8760.58292
123 1728.86998 -8997.88849
124 2677.21367 -7353.36508
125 1709.74696 -7797.85902
126 4578.2958 -8132.75223
127 1375.13675 -8899.83499
128 2955.25747 -8665.70608
129 1577.64395 -8153.70773
130 3417.03668 -8961.97344
131 2805.78527 -8304.92362
132 3174.39666 -8612.96959
133 1192.57831 -9041.05086
134 3132.64644 -8451.2559
135 2792.33498 -7158.47412
136 1835.69765 -8438.02692
137 2063.57202 -8898.63689
138 3497.55688 -9419.47456
139 1729.00767 -8878.94374
140 1481.10103 -7466.36758
141 2546.29276 -8456.13517
142 3125.76813 -7455.11129
143 3607.43564 -7669.77311
144 2436.29818 -8739.39823
145 2245.97814 -8125.23764
146 4221.92435 -8605.3305
147 1569.07871 -7461.71223
148 991.538129 -8288.12138
149 4767.77044 -8034.18915
150 1715.76695 -8167.09834
151 1713.98546 -9000.13917
152 4126.36366 -8624.83416
153 2238.76973 -8613.94029
154 3038.60085 -7705.3728
155 1493.57487 -8551.58037
156 2724.29095 -7365.78901
157 3092.28251 -8311.66022
158 322.827163 -8701.61806
159 2411.12619 -9195.17171
160 1421.54278 -8611.62193
161 3695.61006 -9141.30515
162 2251.57844 -8334.97804
163 1796.18968 -8684.58613
164 3774.43639 -8454.07978
165 2237.15034 -6648.29799
166 2415.57084 -7498.859
167 2642.05071 -8939.64571
168 1983.18425 -8355.73882
169 2319.89768 -8482.6613
170 2260.15968 -8313.91086
171 1629.41483 -8792.93193
172 3112.39175 -7742.13261
173 1414.93277 -7524.1149
174 2983.22665 -8280.57168
175 2357.21965 -8693.39894
176 2741.22212 -7968.88827
177 2140.50858 -7462.51749
178 4049.77731 -7885.085
179 2542.3048 -8543.40807
180 1864.57979 -7676.03147
181 2834.96839 -7554.04228
182 2435.98821 -9183.66964
183 2485.59425 -7901.96518
184 1791.34447 -8446.58005
185 1053.42508 -8449.78618
186 2520.44292 -8592.44201
187 1737.40965 -7404.75795
188 2618.49601 -8749.84651
189 2995.54016 -8298.47044
190 2183.90937 -7883.01826
191 1816.90925 -7674.93693
192 1915.81239 -8407.7
193 3434.19693 -7406.26989
194 3415.78184 -7354.15406
195 2077.34842 -9117.55095
196 3950.12539 -8880.26341
197 1852.50535 -7991.16182
198 2102.17719 -8177.75913
199 2155.61268 -7803.61154
200 3226.7049 -8866.99602
201 1224.6222 -8070.31453
202 2886.50029 -8924.92899
203 1949.1929 -8546.27915
204 2094.59131 -8553.63144
205 3019.99172 -7722.97793
206 2412.84726 -8648.81352
207 2991.08168 -8795.47374
208 1681.02187 -8043.6669
209 4435.63329 -7959.37946
210 3545.51929 -8539.40364
211 2124.28516 -7201.1649
212 3867.89692 -7306.12027
213 1864.26631 -8071.40031
214 2921.96003 -8820.71065
215 3221.30168 -8308.04573
216 3065.22926 -8416.14123
217 2374.34635 -8006.05427
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