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Operational Research Methods Simulation
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Operational Research Methods Simulation
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Operational Research Methods Simulation
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Operational Research Methods Simulation
Exercise: Expenditure
A slightly deeper analysis of the amount spent by customers on each order at the fast-food restaurant
reveals that the distribution appears to be normal, with a mean expenditure of 6.07 and a standard
deviation of 0.75.
Use the following random digits to produce a sample of 10 expenditures:
07 91 83 84 66 45 31 50 13 74
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Operational Research Methods Simulation
Example
If we wish to sample from a negative exponential distribution with mean 100 and are given the random
digits 93 and 81:
Digits Prob Z X Calculation
93 0.93 2.6593 265.93 100 2.6593
81 0.81 1.6607 166.07 100 1.6607
Exercise: Emergency Call Centre
The distribution of times between calls arriving at the emergency call centre for the gas supplier has
been analysed and is reckoned to follow a negative exponential distribution, with a mean of 54 seconds
between each call.
Use the following random digits to produce a sample of 10 inter-arrival times:
80 78 37 47 36 85 28 05 84 39
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Operational Research Methods Simulation
Lboro Academy
Lboro Academy is developing a new scheme for testing the English of new students called the Lboro
English Testing Scheme (LETS). This requires hiring some testers paid by the hour, and so the LETS
manager needs to know the total times the testers will need for each candidate.
Each candidate answers some multiple choice questions on-line, and then writes an essay. This essay is
marked independently by two testers which takes each of them anywhere between 30 and 50 minutes.
The two testers then discuss together to agree an essay mark. Usually this is easy, but can sometimes
take a long time, so the time to discuss and reach agreement has a negative exponential distribution
with a mean of 10 minutes. The candidate then has a recorded interview with one of the testers who
records marks during the interview. As the interview varies depending on the candidates ability, the
times vary and it can take anywhere between 30 and 40 minutes on 10% of occasions, between 40 and
60 minutes for 40% of occasions and between 60 and 80 minutes for the remaining 50%.
In 30% of cases the marks for the essay and the interview are consistent, so the testers move straight on
to the report stage. However, in other cases extra marking is needed. In 35% of all cases one of the
testers must assess the on-line answers which takes 20 minutes but in the remaining 35% of cases the
second tester must watch and mark the recorded interview.
Finally, the two testers involved meet to discuss and type up a report together. The time to prepare this
report is normally distributed around a mean of 30 minutes with a standard deviation of 10 minutes. So
the total time per candidate for the paid testers includes the times to mark the essay and agree the
mark, the time for the interview, the time for report writing and any time needed for extra marking.
Management Kollege
Management Kollege (MK) is seeking to recruit several new Associate Professors of Finance, so is using
head hunters, who charge by the time involved of their assessors. Before deciding on the number of
applicants to short list the dean of MK wants to know the cost per applicant of the selection process.
Each short listed applicant submits a technical summary of their work to date and then presents to MK
staff and two of the outside assessors, who have previously read the summary submitted.
The head hunters confirm that for each applicant their technical summary will be read and assessed
independently by two assessors. For each assessor this can take anywhere between 30 and 40 minutes.
The dean of MK knows that, although each applicant is asked to present for 45 minutes, the time taken
will be normally distributed around that target with a standard deviation of 10 minutes.
After the presentation the two assessors discuss together to try and agree a recommendation for the
dean. The time taken to do this varies considerably. 25% of the time it is easy and takes between 10
and 20 minutes and 40% of the time takes between 20 and 30 minutes but in 35% of cases it takes
anywhere between 30 minutes and one hour. Overall, in two thirds of discussions the assessors reach
agreement but in a third of the cases they cannot agree and then both must meet with MKs dean to
resolve the recommendation. Such meetings are usually quite short, but occasionally very long and so
the distribution of these meeting times can be taken as negative exponential with a mean of 20 minutes.
The total time per short listed applicant for each assessor is the time to assess the summary, listen to
the presentation, discuss the applicant and possibly meet with the dean. MKs dean is concerned about
the total assessor time per applicant as that determines their cost.
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