ANALISIS

STATISTIKA

Materi 5
Inferensia dari Contoh Besar
(Inference from Large Samples)
 Introduction
Statistical inference:
Deals with drawing conclusions about
population parameters from an analysis of the
sample data.

Two types of statistical inference:

Estimation of parameters;
Testing of statistical hypotheses.
Table. Heights of One-Year-Old Red Pine
Seedlings (Measured in Centimeters)
2.6 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.4 2.2 1.2 1.6
1.6 1.5 1.4 1.6 2.3 1.5 1.1 1.6
2.0 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.6 2.1 2.8 1.0
1.2 1.2 1.8 1.7 0.8 1.5 2.0 2.2
1.5 1.6 2.2 2.1 3.1 1.7 1.7 1.2

Sample mean = 1.715

Sample standard deviation = 0.475
Sample median = 1.6
First quartile = 1.5
Third quartile = 2.7
The target of our investigation:

1. To estimate a single value for the unknown

(point estimation)
2. To determine an interval of plausible values for
(interval estimation)
3. To decide whether or not the mean height is
1.9 centimeters, which was previously found to
be the mean height of a different stock of pine
seedlings (testing a hypotheses)
 POINT ESTIMATION

A statistic intended for estimating a parameter is

called a point estimator or, simply, an estimator.
The standard deviation of an estimator is called
its standard error (SE).

The sample mean is the estimator of a

population mean :
X1 X 2 ... X n
X
n
The properties of the sample mean:

E(X )
SE ( X) sd( X)
n
With large n, X is normally distributed
with mean and standard deviation
n
 POINT ESTIMATION OF THE MEAN

Parameter: population mean .

Data: X1, X2, , Xn (a random sample of size n)
Estimator: X (sample mean)
s
SE ( X) estimated SE ( X)
n n
For large n, the 100(1-)% error margin is z /2
(if is unknown, use s in place of ) n
Examples:
2.6 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.4 2.2 1.2 1.6
1.6 1.5 1.4 1.6 2.3 1.5 1.1 1.6
2.0 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.6 2.1 2.8 1.0
1.2 1.2 1.8 1.7 0.8 1.5 2.0 2.2
1.5 1.6 2.2 2.1 3.1 1.7 1.7 1.2

xi
x 1.715
40
(X i X)2 (x i x)2
s 0.2254 0.475
(n 1) 39
Examples (cont):

To calculate the 95% error margin, we set (1-)=0.95

so that /2 = 0.025 and z/2=1.96. Therefore, the 95%
error margin is
1.96s 1.96 0.475
0.15 centimeters.
n 40
 SAMPLE SIZE
To be 100(1-)% sure that the error of
estimation |X - | does not exceed d, the
required sample size is
2
z /2
n
d
Examples:
A limnologist wishes to estimate the mean phosphate
content per unit volume of lake water. It is known from
studies in previous years that standard deviation has a
fairly stable value =4. how many water samples must
the limnologist analyze to be 90% certain that the error of
estimation does not exceed 0.8?

Solution:
=4 and 1-=0.90, so /2 = 0.05. The upper 0.05 point
of the N(0,1) distribution is z0.05 = 1.645. The tolerable
error is d=0.8. computing
2
1.645 4
n 67.65 sample size n = 68.
0.8
Exercises:
1. Data on the average weekly earnings were obtained from
a survey of 50 nonsupervisory production workers in the
mining industry. The sample mean and standard
deviation were found to be $630 and $35, respectively.
Estimate the true mean weekly earnings and determine
the 95% error margin.
2. Suppose that the survey of 50 workers was, in fact, a
pilot study intended to give an idea of the population
standard deviation. Assuming =$35, determine the
sample size that is needed for estimating the population
mean weekly earnings with a 98% error margin of $3.50.
 CONFIDENCE INTERVAL FOR
In general, the probability is 1 that the
population mean is contained in the interval

x z 2 x x z 2
n
The normal point z /2 gives a right hand tail area
under the standard normal curve equal to /2
The normal point - z /2 gives a left hand tail area
under the standard normal curve equal to /2
The area under the standard normal curve
between - z /2 and z /2 is 1
 CONFIDENCE INTERVAL FOR
If a population has standard deviation
(known),
and if the population is normal or if
sample size is large (n 30), then

x z 2 x z 2 ,x z 2
n n n
CONFIDENCE INTERVAL FOR
Examples:
To estimate the average weekly income of restaurant waiters
and waitresses in a large city, an investigator collects weekly
income data from a random sample of 75 restaurant
workers. The mean and the standard deviation are found to
be $227 and $15, respectively. Compute 90% confidence
intervals for the mean weekly income.

Solution:
X = 227 and s = 15; (1-)=0.90 /2 = 0.05 and
z0.05=1.645
s s
x 1.645 , x 1.645 (227 2.85,227 2.85)
n n
Exercises:
1. An entomologist sprayed 120 adult melon flies with a
specific low concentration of malathion and observed
their survival times. The mean and standard deviation
were found to be 18.3 days and 5.2 days, respectively.
Use these data to construct a 99% confidence interval for
the true mean survival time.
2. A forester measures 100 needles off a pine tree and finds
the mean of 3.1 centimeters and s = 0.7 centimeter. She
reports that a 95% confidence interval for the mean
needle length is (2.96; 3.24).
a. Is the statement correct?
b. Does the interval (2.96; 3.24) cover the true mean?