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ESD.

36J System & Project Management

+
Dynamics of Project Performance

Strategic Issues in Project


Preparation and Planning
SD Class Five (10/7/03)

Copyright 2003
James M. Lyneis
+

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Topics

Homework Review and Module One


Wrapup

Project Management A Strategic


View

Managing Project Dynamics --


Project Preparation and Planning

Copyright 2003
10/7/03 - ESD.36J SPM James M. Lyneis 2
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Topics

Homework Review and Module One


Wrapup

Project Management A Strategic


View

Managing Project Dynamics --


Project Preparation and Planning

Copyright 2003
10/7/03 - ESD.36J SPM James M. Lyneis 3
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Homework Assignments
HW1: Network Planning Techniques
HW2: Task based DSM
HW3: Design a Project Organization
HW4: SD verify Brooks law
HW5: Case study comparison
HW6: SD project adapation
Discuss Master

Solution

Copyright 2003
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HW1 Solution
UAV Project

Reducing Critical Path [Kerzner]:


Transferring resources to critical paths
Elimination of some parts of the project
Addition of more resources
Substitution of less time-consuming tasks
Parallelization of activities
Shortening critical path activities
Shortening early activities
Shortening longest activities
Shortening easiest activities
Shortening activities least costly to speed up
Increasing the number of work hours per day

(EF) June 4, 2008


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HW1 Solution (cont.)
Setting target dates for

engine GFE suppliers:


GFE day 29
Engine day 44 (51)
Probability of finishing by

day 100
TE(m)=20, TV(m)=4
TE(n)=25, TV(n)=25
z=(100-110)/sqrt(29)=-1.86
Probability 3.1%
(EF) June 6, 2008
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HW2 Solution DSM

Items 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1! Requirement definition b
2! Engine specification 1 c 1
3! Vehicle layout 1 d 1
4! GFE interface 1 e 1
5! Fuselage design 1 1 1 f 1
6! Wing design 1 g 1
7! Avionics design 1 1 h 1
8! Empennage design 1 i
9! Engine delivery 1 j
10! Vehicle integration 1 1 1 k 1
11! GFE delivery 1 l
12! Ground testing 1 m
13! Flight testing 1 n

Artifact of sequencing

Design process

Feedback additions

Copyright 2003
10/7/03 - ESD.36J SPM James M. Lyneis 7
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HW2 Solution (cont.)
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N

B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
Copyright 2003
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HW2 Solution (cont.)
Airframe Equipment

Design Installation

Items 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 11 12 13
1! Requirement definition b Planned
3! Vehicle layout 1 d 1 Iterations
5! Fuselage design 1 f 1 1 1
8! Empennage design 1 i 1 Unplanned
6! Wing design 1 g 1
Iterations
4! GFE interface 1 e 1
7! Avionics design 1 h 1
2! Engine specification 1 c 1 Integration
9! Engine delivery 1 j and Test
11! GFE delivery 1 l
10! Vehicle integration 1 1 1 1 k
12! Ground testing 1 1 1 m
13! Flight testing 1 1 1 n
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Wrapup Discussion for Module 1

(Methods and Tools)

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Critical Path Method/PERT

critical path

C,20 E,20 F,40


0 20 20 40 40 80
Finish

S=0 A,0 0 G,20 H,0


80 100 100 F=100
Start

0 B,10 10 20 D,30 50

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What is CPM useful for?

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Design Structure Matrix
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60
1 Set customer target x x
2 Estimate sales volumes x x x
3 Establish pricing direction
x x
x
Concurrent Activity Blocks
4 Schedule project timeline

5 Development methods
x x x x x Generational Learning
6 Macro targets/constraints
x x x x x x
7 Financial analysis
x x x x x
8 Develop program map
x x Potential Iterations
9 Create initial QFD matrix
x x x x
10 Set technical requirements
x x x x x
11 Write customer specification
x x x x x O O O O O O O O
12 High-level modeling
x x x x x x x
13 Write target specification
x x x x x x x x x x x
14 Develop test plan
x x x x x x
15 Develop validation plan
x x x x
16 Build base prototype
x x x x x x
17 Functional modeling
x x x x x x x x x x x x x O O O O O O O O O O
18 Develop product modules
x x x x x x x x x O
19 Lay out integration
x x x x x x x x x
20 Integration modeling
x x x x x x x x x x
21 Random testing
x x x x x
22 Develop test parameters
x x x x x x x x x x
23 Finalize schematics
x x x x x x x O O O O O
24 Validation simulation
x x x x x x x x x
25 Reliability modeling
x x x x x x
26 Complete product layout
x x x x x x x
27 Continuity verification
x x x x x x
28 Design rule check
x x x
29 Design package
x x x x x O O O O O O O
30 Generate masks
x x x x x O
31 Verify masks in fab
x x x
32 Run wafers
x x O
33 Sort wafers
x
34 Create test programs
x
35 Debug products
x x x x x O O O O O O O
36 Package products
x x x
37 Functionality testing
x x x
38 Send samples to customers
x x x x
39 Feedback from customers
x
Sequential Activities
40 Verify sample functionality
x
41 Approve packaged products
x x x x
42 Environmental validation
x x x x
43 Complete product validation
x x x x x
44 Develop tech. publications
x x x x
45 Develop service courses
x x x
46 Determine marketing name
x x x x x x
47 Licensing strategy
x x x
48 Create demonstration
x x x x x x
49 Confirm quality goals
x x x x x
50 Life testing
x x x x x
51 Infant mortality testing
x x x x x
52 Mfg. process stabilization
x x x O O
53 Develop field support plan
x x
54 Thermal testing
x x x
55 Confirm process standards
x x x
56 Confirm package standards
x x x x x x
57 Final certification
x x x x x x x x x x x
58 Volume production
x x x x
59 Prepare distribution network
x x x x x x x x
60 Deliver product to customers
x x x x x x x x x

x = Information Flows = Planned Iterations O = Unplanned Iterations = Generational Learning

10/7/03 - ESD.36J SPM 13


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What is DSM useful for?

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System Dynamics
External factors; management responses; side effects

Out-of-Sequence
Work, Worksite
Congestion,
Coordination
Fatigue, Problems,
Burnout Morale Problems

Average People Productivity Quality


Employee Skill
and Quality Progress
Work Work
Overtime To Be Done Really Done

Scope Customer
Growth Changes Schedule
Known Undiscovered Acceleration
Rework Rework
Rework
Discovery
Hiring

Apparent
Progress
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What is SD useful for?

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SPM Methods Overview
PERT DSM SD
CPM

(+) Detailed Captures Explores


Planning iterations dynamic
strength Critical path Meta-tasks drivers
identification Architecture- Informs PM
task mapping actions

(-) No iterations Operational individual task


No connection planning models
weakness to organization impractical

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9/9 Network Techniques 9/11 Task-based DSM Class
Schedule
- 9/16 Iterations DSM 9/18 Project Organization
(refer to
9/23 System Dynamics 1 9/25 Feedback & Rework syllabus)

9/30 Project Simulation 10/2 Managing


Dynamics
10/7 Strategic Issues 10/9 PDPs
Module
10/14 ICE Methods 10/16 Case 1: S/W Business
2 Trip
10/21 Case 2: H/W 10/23 Case 3: H/W&S/W
10/28 Critical Path 10/30 Risk Management
11/4 Project Tracking 11/6 Project Adaptation
11/11 Veterans Day 11/13 Concurrency
11/18 Project Metrics 11/20 Success Factors Note two
No Class
3-hour
11/25 No Class 11/27 Thanksgiving classes
in
12/2 Presentations 1 12/4 Presentations 2
December
Copyright 2003
10/7/03 - ESD.36J SPM James M. Lyneis 18
+ System Project Management
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ESD.36 Framework

Project
Preparation Project Project
Planning Monitoring

Enterprise has
chosen what product Project
or system to develop Adaptation

Ref: J. Warmkessel
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Topics

Homework Review and Module One


Wrapup

Project Management A Strategic


View

Managing Project Dynamics --


Project Preparation and Planning

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10/7/03 - ESD.36J SPM James M. Lyneis 20
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Framework

Project Project Project


Preparation Planning Execution

Doing the right job

Project
Adaptation

Doing the job right

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What is strategy as it applies to


an individual project (vs. corporate
strategy as it applies to projects
and the project portfolio)?

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Corporate Strategy for the Project
-

Determining the fit of the project to business


objectives (the mission doing the right job)
features / scope of end product
schedule milestones (time to market)

delivered quality (defects)

resources & budget (development cost)

And the mix/timing of projects necessary to achieve


corporate strategy

Operationally, projects implement

corporate strategy.

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Mission Dimensions

Priority & Specific Objectives

High, Stretch Medium Low, Slack

Features / Scope

Time-to-Market/
Schedule
Defects/ Undiscovered
Rework

Resources / Cost

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10/7/03 - ESD.36J SPM James M. Lyneis


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Strategic Project Management

Understanding how project design decisions


affect project performance

Scope/schedule/ ... (i.e., mission)

Organization, process, ...

Buffers, phase overlap, ...

Staffing strategies, schedule slip, ...

...

and how they affect other current projects


(portfolio issues), and future projects.
Operationally, day-to-day project
decisions implement project strategy.
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Process & Organization Issues

Waterfall vs. spiral vs. ...


Autonomous team vs. functional (&
therefore multiple projects per person?)
Integrated product teams?
System vs. modules (?)
How much to subcontract, make vs. buy

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Staffing Issues
How much to rely on overtime (vs.
adding staff)?
Should you pay extra for experience?

Generalists vs. specialists?

Co-location vs. geographically

dispersed (vs. not getting enough


people, local content, ?)
How much training

How much is it worth to reduce attrition?


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Strategic vs Operational Decisions

Operational Strategic

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Strategic Project Management Pertains
- to Both Preparation & Planning
Strategic Project
Management

Project Project Project


Preparation Planning Execution

Doing the right job

Project
Adaptation

Doing the job right


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10/7/03 - ESD.36J SPM James M. Lyneis 29
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Topics

Homework Review and Module One


Wrapup

Project Management A Strategic


View

Managing Project Dynamics --


Project Preparation and Planning

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Typical project dynamics ...
Project
Staffing
... Result in
schedule
&/or budget
overrun

Typical
Plan

Time

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Project dynamics from Homework 4:
-
Graph for Staff Level

60

45

30

15
Plan

0
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Time (Month)

Staff Level : Class4 Hire 100 People


Staff Level : Class4 Hire 0 People
Staff Level : Class4 People
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Strategic Project Management

What can we do to avoid/minimize the


dynamics ...
in project preparation (design) and

project planning?
in project execution and adaptation

(e.g., risk management and change


management)?

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How do the dynamics get started?
- Time
Remaining

Skill &
Experience
Staff
Morale Organizational Turnover Hiring
Size
Changes
Overtime
Schedule Staffing
Scheduled Pressure Equivalent Requested
Completion Productivity Quality Staff on
Time Project
Out-of-Sequence
Work
Hours
Progress Expended
Expected Work To Work to Date Expected
Completion Availability Be Done Really Done Hours at
Time of Prerequisites Added Completion
Work Obsoleted
Work Quality Known Undiscovered Work
Rework Rework
to Date Rework
Discovery

Perceived
Progress
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How Does It Get Started?

Inconsistent mission
(scope/schedule/defects/budget)
Late changes and other risks
Quality problems

These are characteristics of complex


(vs. simple) projects

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How does it get started?
- Time
Remaining

Skill &
Experience
Staff
Morale Organizational Turnover Hiring
Size
Changes
Overtime
Schedule Staffing
Scheduled Pressure Equivalent Requested
Completion Productivity Quality Staff on
Time Project
Out-of-Sequence
Work
Hours
Progress Expended
Expected Work To Work to Date Expected
Completion Availability Be Done Really Done Hours at
Time of Prerequisites Added Completion
Work Obsoleted
Work Quality Known Undiscovered Work
Rework Rework
to Date Rework
Discovery

Perceived
Progress
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How Does It Get Started?

Inconsistent mission
(scope/schedule/defects/budget)
Late changes and other risks
Quality problems

These are characteristics of complex


(vs. simple) projects

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Mission Dimensions
-
Priority & Specific Objectives

High, Stretch Medium Low, Slack

Features / Scope

Time-to-Market/
Schedule
Defects/ Undiscovered
Rework

Resources / Cost

What should the objectives be?

How many can be high priority?

Copyright 2003
10/7/03 - ESD.36J SPM James M. Lyneis
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Consistent Project Can Achieve the Plan
-

Scope = 100 (tasks)


Scheduled Completion Date = 30
(month) (vs. 27 in Class4 model)

Delivered Quality > 99%


Staff = 4 (people)
Normal Quality = .95 (fraction) (vs. .85

in Class4 model)

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Staff & Progress
-
100 Task
6 People

75 Task
4.5 People

50 Task
3 People

25 Task
1.5 People

0 Task
0 People
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Time (Month)

Work Done : Plan Task


Staff Level : Plan People

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Productivity
-
1.2

1.1

0.9

0.8
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Time (Month)

Productivity : Plan Task/(Month*Person)


Effect of Experience on Productivity : Plan Task/(Month*Person)
Effect of Schedule Pressure on Productivity : Plan Task/(Month*Person)

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Quality

-1

0.95

0.9

0.85

0.8
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Time (Month)

Quality : Plan Fraction


Effect of Prior Work Quality on Quality : Plan Fraction
Effect of Experience on Quality : Plan Fraction
Effect of Schedule Pressure on Quality : Plan Fraction

Copyright 2003
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+ Inconsistent Projects Can Initiate
- the Dynamics

Plan Work 125 [Scope = 125 initial tasks (vs


100)]
Plan Schedule 22 [Scheduled completion
date = 22.5 (vs 30)]
Plan Staff 3 [Staff = 3 people until past 50%
complete (vs 4); this might also reflect
resource constraints as well as poor or
aggressive planning].
Plan Quality 85 [Normal Quality = .85 (vs
.95)]
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Graph for Staff Level
20
-

15

10

Plan
0
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Time (Month)

Staff Level : Plan People


Staff Level : Plan Work 125 People
Staff Level : Plan Schedule 22 People
Staff Level : Plan Staff 3 People
Staff Level : Plan Quality 85 People

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+

What makes it worse?


- Time
Remaining

Skill &
Experience
Staff
Morale Organizational Turnover Hiring
Size
Changes
Overtime
Schedule Staffing
Scheduled Pressure Equivalent Requested
Completion Productivity Quality Staff on
Time Project
Out-of-Sequence
Work
Hours
Progress Expended
Expected Work To Work to Date Expected
Completion Availability Be Done Really Done Hours at
Time of Prerequisites Added Completion
Work Obsoleted
Work Quality Known Undiscovered Work
Rework Rework
to Date Rework
Discovery

Perceived
Progress Copyright 2003
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+
What makes it worse?
Graph for Quality
-1
Plan
0.75

0.5 Quality on Quality


Feedback
0.25

0
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Time (Month)

Quality : Class 5 Plan Fraction


Quality : Class 5 Plan Scope 125 Fraction
Quality : Class 5 Plan Schedule 22 Fraction
Quality : Class 5 Plan Staff 3 Fraction
Quality : Class 5 Plan Quality 85 Fraction

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What makes it worse?
Graph for Effect of Experience on Quality
-
1
Plan

0.9

0.8 Experience on
Quality Feedback
0.7

0.6
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Time (Month)

Effect of Experience on Quality : Class 5 Plan Dimensionless


Effect of Experience on Quality : Class 5 Plan Scope 125 Dimensionless
Effect of Experience on Quality : Class 5 Plan Schedule 22 Dimensionless
Effect of Experience on Quality : Class 5 Plan Staff 3 Dimensionless
Effect of Experience on Quality : Class 5 Plan Quality 85 Dimensionless

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Trying to achieve inconsistent
- objectives can lead to disaster
Test Finish Cost(person-mos)

Plan 29.875 116.7

Increase Scope 33.125 211.3 (vs. 145


to 125 budget)
Reduce 27.6 194.7
Schedule to 22.5

Reduce Initial 34 193.0

Staff to 3

35.8 213.5
Normal Q = .85

With end result worse (schedule/cost) than if project


budgeted higher at start
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+ What is implicit lower priority in above
-
simulations (and Homework 4 model)?

Adding staff, and therefore cost.

Based on homework, can this ever


work?

How often do you believe those


conditions exist?

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How Does It Get Started?

Inconsistent mission
(scope/schedule/defects/budget)
Late changes and other risks
Quality problems

These are characteristics of complex


(vs. simple) projects

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+ Late Project Changes Can Create
- the Dynamics As Well

Changes
20% of tasks done obsoleted at month 15
Put into undiscovered rework (what needs
to be redone often not completely known
when change is made).

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Work DoneGraph...for Work Done
-
100

75

50

Changes

25

0
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Time (Month)

Work Done : Class 5 Plan Task


Work Done : Class 5 Changes Task

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Staffing ...
- Graph for Staff Level

20

15

Changes
10

0
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Time (Month)

Staff Level : Class 5 Plan People


Staff Level : Class 5 Changes People

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Quality ...
- Graph for Quality

0.9

0.8

Changes

0.7

0.6
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Time (Month)

Quality : Class 5 Plan Fraction


Quality : Class 5 Changes Fraction

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How Does It Get Started?

Inconsistent mission
(scope/schedule/budget)
Late changes and other risks
Quality problems

These are characteristics of complex


(vs. simple) projects

Copyright 2003
10/7/03 - ESD.36J SPM James M. Lyneis 55
+ What causes project quality
- problems?

Remember, quality as used in the


model is any work done incorrectly or
incompletely, regardless of cause

Copyright 2003
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+ What causes project quality
- problems?
Endogenous feedback effects (manageable)
Exogenous factors
Availability and quality of information from others
(suppliers, other projects, platforms)
Uncertain customer requirements
Uncertain technology, technology leap
Scope (esp. number of features and resultant
complexity)
Other -- type of people available, tools,
organization structure

Copyright 2003
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+ What are differences between changes
-
and quality problems?

Changes represent truly unknowable,


uncontrollable, exogenous impacts
(though the fact that they often happen
might be planned for)
competitor introduces a new feature
...
Quality problems can be anticipated
and dealt with in the design and
management of the project
buffers, prototypes, process, ...
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+
How can we design a project that minimizes
- the chances of the dynamics getting started?

Consistent mission?

Reflects typical quality problems?

Accounts for possible changes and

risks?

Note: Source of problem affects solution

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+
Strategic Project Management Pertains to
- Both Preparation & Planning
Strategic Project
Management

Project Project Project


Preparation Planning Execution

Doing the right job

Project
Adaptation

Doing the job right

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+

-
Strategic Project Management
Establishing project design
parameters --
Consistent mission
Development process
Organization structure (?)
Staffing strategy
Phase overlap & concurrency
What to measure, monitor, and exert
pressure on

...

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Strategic Project Design

Given the mission objectives, what is the


project likely to cost and when will it finish
(given prior experience)? What risks might
the project face?
How can we optimize the tradeoff among
scope/schedule/budget in meeting the
projects mission? What will it really cost me
to finish earlier, add features, .
What changes in process, organization,
etc. might improve the tradeoff.

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How many people feel that on the typical project
- in your organization, budget and schedule are

More than is needed __________

Just right __________

Tight, but manageable __________

Insufficient enough that the vicious circles are


significant __________

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Why Wont We Develop a Realistic Plan?


-

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Lessons

Getting a feasible project design is the


first step to avoiding adverse project
dynamics
Prior projects are the best source of

information with which to design a


robust project
There is an optimal tradeoff among

scope, budget, schedule, and delivered


defects
Copyright 2003
10/7/03 - ESD.36J SPM James M. Lyneis 65
+ How can we design a project that minimizes the
-
chances of the dynamics getting started?

Consistent mission?

Reflects typical quality problems?

Accounts for possible changes and

risks?

Note: Source of problem affects solution

Copyright 2003
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+
Strategic Project Management
-

Establishing project design

parameters --

Consistent mission

Development process

Organization structure (?)

Staffing strategy

Strategic
Phase overlap & concurrency Project
What to measure, monitor,
Planning?
and exert pressure on

...
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-
Selected Issues in Project Planning

Selecting the process model


Defining teams and responsibilities
Activity planning and resource allocation
Scheduling
Determining what to measure, monitor,
exert pressure on (reward)
Identifying risks and mitigation plans

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+
Strategic Process & Organization Issues
-

Waterfall vs. spiral vs. adaptive vs. ?


Autonomous (dedicated) integrated

product team vs. functional?

System vs. modules?

How much phase overlap and

concurrency?
How much to subcontract, make vs.

buy?
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+

-
Strategic Staffing Issues
How much to rely on overtime (vs.
adding staff)?
Should you pay extra for experience?

Generalists vs. specialists?

Co-location vs. geographically

dispersed?
How much training?

How much is it worth to reduce attrition?

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+

How do we assess what is right


for out project?

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+
How do we assess what is right
- for our project?
System Dynamics Approach:

Model the project with current processes, policies,

Specify the direct impacts of alternatives (steady-


state vs. dynamic) on --
Scope
productivity
quality
rework discovery
strength of productivity and quality effects

...

[Secondary impacts assessed via simulation]

Simulate and compare performance

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+ Autonomous Integrated Teams vs.
- Functional: Autonomous Teams ...

Pros Cons

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+ Autonomous Integrated Teams vs.
- Functional: Sample Test

Integrated Teams:
Improve normal quality to 0.925 (from 0.85
because diverse members of team capture
mistakes before they happen)
Reduce Maximum rework discovery time to
4 months (from 12 months)
Reduce Normal productivity to .9 (from 1
because multiple team member slow
progress, more review, discussion, )

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+
Graph for Staff Level
20
-

15

10
Functional

Integrated
5
Product Team

Plan
0
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Time (Month)

Staff Level : Class6 Plan People


Staff Level : Class6 Waterfall People
Staff Level : Class6 Integrated Teams People

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Graph for Quality
1
-
Plan

0.75

Integrated
Product Team
0.5
Functional

0.25

0
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Time (Month)

Quality : Class6 Plan Fraction


Quality : Class6 Waterfall Fraction
Quality : Class6 Integrated Teams Fraction

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+ Graph for Undiscovered Rework
40
-

30

20
Functional

10

Plan Integrated
Product Team
0
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Time (Month)

Undiscovered Rework : Class6 Plan Task


Undiscovered Rework : Class6 Waterfall Task
Undiscovered Rework : Class6 Integrated Teams Task

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+ Autonomous Integrated Teams vs.
- Functional

Test
Finish Cost(person-mos)
Plan 29.875 116.7
Functional 38.875 263.3
Integrated
Product Team 31.625 189.38

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-
Conclusions re. Integrated Teams

An integrated product team or similar


organization structure can improve
performance if project conditions would
otherwise cause significant undiscovered
rework
The benefits of these structures increase with
the uncertainty (risk), and likely project
overrun with traditional development
approaches
Cautions ...
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+
Strategic Project Management
-
Establishing project design parameters --
Consistent mission
Development process
Organization structure (?)
Staffing strategy
Phase overlap & concurrency
What to measure, monitor, and exert pressure on
...
Next SD class well deal with the other

design issues

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