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Dynamics of Project Performance
Copyright 2003
James M. Lyneis
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Topics
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10/7/03 - ESD.36J SPM James M. Lyneis 2
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Topics
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Homework Assignments
HW1: Network Planning Techniques
HW2: Task based DSM
HW3: Design a Project Organization
HW4: SD verify Brooks law
HW5: Case study comparison
HW6: SD project adapation
Discuss Master
Solution
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HW1 Solution
UAV Project
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HW1 Solution (cont.)
Setting target dates for
day 100
TE(m)=20, TV(m)=4
TE(n)=25, TV(n)=25
z=(100-110)/sqrt(29)=-1.86
Probability 3.1%
(EF) June 6, 2008
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HW2 Solution DSM
Items 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1! Requirement definition b
2! Engine specification 1 c 1
3! Vehicle layout 1 d 1
4! GFE interface 1 e 1
5! Fuselage design 1 1 1 f 1
6! Wing design 1 g 1
7! Avionics design 1 1 h 1
8! Empennage design 1 i
9! Engine delivery 1 j
10! Vehicle integration 1 1 1 k 1
11! GFE delivery 1 l
12! Ground testing 1 m
13! Flight testing 1 n
Artifact of sequencing
Design process
Feedback additions
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HW2 Solution (cont.)
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
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HW2 Solution (cont.)
Airframe Equipment
Design Installation
Items 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 11 12 13
1! Requirement definition b Planned
3! Vehicle layout 1 d 1 Iterations
5! Fuselage design 1 f 1 1 1
8! Empennage design 1 i 1 Unplanned
6! Wing design 1 g 1
Iterations
4! GFE interface 1 e 1
7! Avionics design 1 h 1
2! Engine specification 1 c 1 Integration
9! Engine delivery 1 j and Test
11! GFE delivery 1 l
10! Vehicle integration 1 1 1 1 k
12! Ground testing 1 1 1 m
13! Flight testing 1 1 1 n
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Critical Path Method/PERT
critical path
0 B,10 10 20 D,30 50
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What is CPM useful for?
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Design Structure Matrix
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60
1 Set customer target x x
2 Estimate sales volumes x x x
3 Establish pricing direction
x x
x
Concurrent Activity Blocks
4 Schedule project timeline
5 Development methods
x x x x x Generational Learning
6 Macro targets/constraints
x x x x x x
7 Financial analysis
x x x x x
8 Develop program map
x x Potential Iterations
9 Create initial QFD matrix
x x x x
10 Set technical requirements
x x x x x
11 Write customer specification
x x x x x O O O O O O O O
12 High-level modeling
x x x x x x x
13 Write target specification
x x x x x x x x x x x
14 Develop test plan
x x x x x x
15 Develop validation plan
x x x x
16 Build base prototype
x x x x x x
17 Functional modeling
x x x x x x x x x x x x x O O O O O O O O O O
18 Develop product modules
x x x x x x x x x O
19 Lay out integration
x x x x x x x x x
20 Integration modeling
x x x x x x x x x x
21 Random testing
x x x x x
22 Develop test parameters
x x x x x x x x x x
23 Finalize schematics
x x x x x x x O O O O O
24 Validation simulation
x x x x x x x x x
25 Reliability modeling
x x x x x x
26 Complete product layout
x x x x x x x
27 Continuity verification
x x x x x x
28 Design rule check
x x x
29 Design package
x x x x x O O O O O O O
30 Generate masks
x x x x x O
31 Verify masks in fab
x x x
32 Run wafers
x x O
33 Sort wafers
x
34 Create test programs
x
35 Debug products
x x x x x O O O O O O O
36 Package products
x x x
37 Functionality testing
x x x
38 Send samples to customers
x x x x
39 Feedback from customers
x
Sequential Activities
40 Verify sample functionality
x
41 Approve packaged products
x x x x
42 Environmental validation
x x x x
43 Complete product validation
x x x x x
44 Develop tech. publications
x x x x
45 Develop service courses
x x x
46 Determine marketing name
x x x x x x
47 Licensing strategy
x x x
48 Create demonstration
x x x x x x
49 Confirm quality goals
x x x x x
50 Life testing
x x x x x
51 Infant mortality testing
x x x x x
52 Mfg. process stabilization
x x x O O
53 Develop field support plan
x x
54 Thermal testing
x x x
55 Confirm process standards
x x x
56 Confirm package standards
x x x x x x
57 Final certification
x x x x x x x x x x x
58 Volume production
x x x x
59 Prepare distribution network
x x x x x x x x
60 Deliver product to customers
x x x x x x x x x
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What is DSM useful for?
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System Dynamics
External factors; management responses; side effects
Out-of-Sequence
Work, Worksite
Congestion,
Coordination
Fatigue, Problems,
Burnout Morale Problems
Scope Customer
Growth Changes Schedule
Known Undiscovered Acceleration
Rework Rework
Rework
Discovery
Hiring
Apparent
Progress
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What is SD useful for?
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SPM Methods Overview
PERT DSM SD
CPM
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9/9 Network Techniques 9/11 Task-based DSM Class
Schedule
- 9/16 Iterations DSM 9/18 Project Organization
(refer to
9/23 System Dynamics 1 9/25 Feedback & Rework syllabus)
Project
Preparation Project Project
Planning Monitoring
Enterprise has
chosen what product Project
or system to develop Adaptation
Ref: J. Warmkessel
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Topics
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Framework
Project
Adaptation
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Corporate Strategy for the Project
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corporate strategy.
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Mission Dimensions
Features / Scope
Time-to-Market/
Schedule
Defects/ Undiscovered
Rework
Resources / Cost
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Strategic Project Management
...
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Process & Organization Issues
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Staffing Issues
How much to rely on overtime (vs.
adding staff)?
Should you pay extra for experience?
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Strategic vs Operational Decisions
Operational Strategic
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Project
Adaptation
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Typical project dynamics ...
Project
Staffing
... Result in
schedule
&/or budget
overrun
Typical
Plan
Time
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Project dynamics from Homework 4:
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Graph for Staff Level
60
45
30
15
Plan
0
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Time (Month)
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Strategic Project Management
project planning?
in project execution and adaptation
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How do the dynamics get started?
- Time
Remaining
Skill &
Experience
Staff
Morale Organizational Turnover Hiring
Size
Changes
Overtime
Schedule Staffing
Scheduled Pressure Equivalent Requested
Completion Productivity Quality Staff on
Time Project
Out-of-Sequence
Work
Hours
Progress Expended
Expected Work To Work to Date Expected
Completion Availability Be Done Really Done Hours at
Time of Prerequisites Added Completion
Work Obsoleted
Work Quality Known Undiscovered Work
Rework Rework
to Date Rework
Discovery
Perceived
Progress
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How Does It Get Started?
Inconsistent mission
(scope/schedule/defects/budget)
Late changes and other risks
Quality problems
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How does it get started?
- Time
Remaining
Skill &
Experience
Staff
Morale Organizational Turnover Hiring
Size
Changes
Overtime
Schedule Staffing
Scheduled Pressure Equivalent Requested
Completion Productivity Quality Staff on
Time Project
Out-of-Sequence
Work
Hours
Progress Expended
Expected Work To Work to Date Expected
Completion Availability Be Done Really Done Hours at
Time of Prerequisites Added Completion
Work Obsoleted
Work Quality Known Undiscovered Work
Rework Rework
to Date Rework
Discovery
Perceived
Progress
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How Does It Get Started?
Inconsistent mission
(scope/schedule/defects/budget)
Late changes and other risks
Quality problems
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Mission Dimensions
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Priority & Specific Objectives
Features / Scope
Time-to-Market/
Schedule
Defects/ Undiscovered
Rework
Resources / Cost
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Consistent Project Can Achieve the Plan
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in Class4 model)
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Staff & Progress
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100 Task
6 People
75 Task
4.5 People
50 Task
3 People
25 Task
1.5 People
0 Task
0 People
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Time (Month)
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Productivity
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1.2
1.1
0.9
0.8
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Time (Month)
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Quality
-1
0.95
0.9
0.85
0.8
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Time (Month)
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+ Inconsistent Projects Can Initiate
- the Dynamics
15
10
Plan
0
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Time (Month)
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Skill &
Experience
Staff
Morale Organizational Turnover Hiring
Size
Changes
Overtime
Schedule Staffing
Scheduled Pressure Equivalent Requested
Completion Productivity Quality Staff on
Time Project
Out-of-Sequence
Work
Hours
Progress Expended
Expected Work To Work to Date Expected
Completion Availability Be Done Really Done Hours at
Time of Prerequisites Added Completion
Work Obsoleted
Work Quality Known Undiscovered Work
Rework Rework
to Date Rework
Discovery
Perceived
Progress Copyright 2003
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What makes it worse?
Graph for Quality
-1
Plan
0.75
0
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Time (Month)
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What makes it worse?
Graph for Effect of Experience on Quality
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1
Plan
0.9
0.8 Experience on
Quality Feedback
0.7
0.6
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Time (Month)
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Trying to achieve inconsistent
- objectives can lead to disaster
Test Finish Cost(person-mos)
Staff to 3
35.8 213.5
Normal Q = .85
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How Does It Get Started?
Inconsistent mission
(scope/schedule/defects/budget)
Late changes and other risks
Quality problems
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+ Late Project Changes Can Create
- the Dynamics As Well
Changes
20% of tasks done obsoleted at month 15
Put into undiscovered rework (what needs
to be redone often not completely known
when change is made).
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Work DoneGraph...for Work Done
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100
75
50
Changes
25
0
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Time (Month)
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Staffing ...
- Graph for Staff Level
20
15
Changes
10
0
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Time (Month)
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Quality ...
- Graph for Quality
0.9
0.8
Changes
0.7
0.6
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Time (Month)
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How Does It Get Started?
Inconsistent mission
(scope/schedule/budget)
Late changes and other risks
Quality problems
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+ What causes project quality
- problems?
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+ What causes project quality
- problems?
Endogenous feedback effects (manageable)
Exogenous factors
Availability and quality of information from others
(suppliers, other projects, platforms)
Uncertain customer requirements
Uncertain technology, technology leap
Scope (esp. number of features and resultant
complexity)
Other -- type of people available, tools,
organization structure
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+ What are differences between changes
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and quality problems?
Consistent mission?
risks?
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Strategic Project Management Pertains to
- Both Preparation & Planning
Strategic Project
Management
Project
Adaptation
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Strategic Project Management
Establishing project design
parameters --
Consistent mission
Development process
Organization structure (?)
Staffing strategy
Phase overlap & concurrency
What to measure, monitor, and exert
pressure on
...
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Strategic Project Design
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How many people feel that on the typical project
- in your organization, budget and schedule are
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Lessons
Consistent mission?
risks?
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Strategic Project Management
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parameters --
Consistent mission
Development process
Staffing strategy
Strategic
Phase overlap & concurrency Project
What to measure, monitor,
Planning?
and exert pressure on
...
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Selected Issues in Project Planning
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Strategic Process & Organization Issues
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concurrency?
How much to subcontract, make vs.
buy?
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Strategic Staffing Issues
How much to rely on overtime (vs.
adding staff)?
Should you pay extra for experience?
dispersed?
How much training?
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...
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+ Autonomous Integrated Teams vs.
- Functional: Autonomous Teams ...
Pros Cons
Copyright 2003
Integrated Teams:
Improve normal quality to 0.925 (from 0.85
because diverse members of team capture
mistakes before they happen)
Reduce Maximum rework discovery time to
4 months (from 12 months)
Reduce Normal productivity to .9 (from 1
because multiple team member slow
progress, more review, discussion, )
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Graph for Staff Level
20
-
15
10
Functional
Integrated
5
Product Team
Plan
0
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Time (Month)
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Graph for Quality
1
-
Plan
0.75
Integrated
Product Team
0.5
Functional
0.25
0
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Time (Month)
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+ Graph for Undiscovered Rework
40
-
30
20
Functional
10
Plan Integrated
Product Team
0
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Time (Month)
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+ Autonomous Integrated Teams vs.
- Functional
Test
Finish Cost(person-mos)
Plan 29.875 116.7
Functional 38.875 263.3
Integrated
Product Team 31.625 189.38
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Conclusions re. Integrated Teams
design issues
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