Role of High Speed Rail Final

PROMOTING LOW CARBON TRANSPORT IN INDIA
Scenarios and Roadmap for Intercity Transport in India:
The Role of High Speed Rail

PROMOTING LOW CARBON TRANSPORT IN INDIA
Scenarios and Roadmap for Intercity Transport in India:

Authors
P. R. Shukla
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad
Minal Pathak
Centre for Urban Equity (CUE) and Faculty of Planning, CEPT University
Shivika Mittal
National Institute of Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
Subash Dhar
UNEP DTU Partnership, Copenhagen, Denmark
September 2015
UNEP DTU Partnership, Centre on Energy, Climate and Sustainable Development
Technical University of Denmark
This publication is part of the Promoting Low Carbon Transport in India project
ISBN: 978-87-93130-60-9
Design and production:

Magnum Custom Publishing
New Delhi, India
info@magnumbooks.org
Photo acknowledgement:
Front cover: Ilya Semyonoff
Back cover: George W. Hamlin
Disclaimer:
The findings, suggestions and conclusions presented in the case study are entirely those
of the authors and should not be attributed in any manner to UNEP DTU Partnership or
the United Nations Environment Programme, nor to the institutions of individual authors.
Contents
List of Tables and Figures v

Acknowledgements vii
Abbreviations ix
Executive Summary xi
1. Introduction 1
1.1 Background 1
1.2 Intercity Transport: The Context 1
1.3 Scope 2
2. High Speed Rail 5

2.1 Background 5
2.2 Global Experience 5
2.3 Modal share 8
2.4 Benefits of HSR 11
2.5 Construction cost 13
3. The Case for HSR in India 17

3.1 Intercity Transport in India 17
3.2 Investments in Transport Infrastructure 17
3.3 Driving forces 18
3.4 Scenarios 21
3.5 About the Model 22
3.6 Energy and GHG emissions 23
4. Ahmedabad-Mumbai HSR Corridor 27

4.1 About the corridor 27
4.2 Mode share 28
4.3 Travel time 28
4.4 Alternative scenarios for Ahmedabad-Mumbai 30
5. Conclusions and Roadmap 35
6. References 39
Annexure 45
iii
List of Tables and Figures
List of Tables
Table 2.1: Benefits of HSR 12
Table 2.2: Construction cost of HSR in different countries 14
Table 3.1: Share of railways in BAU and HSR Scenario 22
Table 4.1: Population, GDP and Travel Demand between Ahmedabad and Mumbai 27
Table 4.2: Comparison of travel time, cost and CO2 emissions for intercity modes
between Ahmedabad and Mumbai 28
List of Figures
Figure 2.1: Length of HSR network in Selected Countries (km) 6
Figure 2.2: Share by country in Cumulative HSR length 7
Figure 2.3: Existing and Proposed HSR lines (2015) 7
Figure 2.4: Modal share in Passenger Transport US, EU, China and Japan 8
Figure 2.5: Share of high-speed rail in passenger transport in different countries 9
Figure 2.6: GDP per capita at the time of first HSR construction in different countries 10
Figure 3.1: Potential HSR lines in India 19
Figure 3.2: Mode share in BAU and HSR Scenario 23
Figure 3.3: Energy Demand by Fuel in BAU 23
Figure 3.4: Energy Demand by Mode 24
Figure 3.5: CO2 Emissions from passenger transport 24
Figure 4.1: Proposed Ahmedabad-Mumbai High Speed Rail Corridor 29
Figure 4.2: Mode Share in Intercity Transport between Ahmedabad and Mumbai 31
Figure 4.3: CO2 Emissions for Intercity trips between Ahmedabad and Mumbai (Million Tonnes) 31
v
Acknowledgements
We wish to thank Dr. Francesca Pagliara and Ms. Kamala Ernest for reviewing this report. The report has
greatly benefitted from their critical and insightful comments and suggestions.
We are especially thankful to the Airports Authority of India for their support with data on air traffic
between Ahmedabad and Mumbai.
Our special thanks go to Ms. Kamala Ernest from UNEP, for her support and valuable input in
the preparation of this report. A special thanks to Ms. Josephine Baschiribod for proof reading and
Ms. Surabhi Goswami for overseeing the layout of the report.
Authors
vii
Abbreviations
BAU Business-As-Usual
CO2 Carbon dioxide
CO2e Carbon dioxide equivalent
GoI Government of India
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GHG Greenhouse gases
HSR High Speed Rail
HSRC High Speed Rail Corporation of India Limited
JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency
Kmph Kilometres per hour
LCS Low-Carbon Scenario
LCT Low-Carbon Transport
NAPCC National Action Plan for Climate Change
MoEF Ministry of Environment and Forests
MoEF & CC Ministry of Environment and Forests and Climate Change
Pkms Passenger kilometres
UNEP United Nations Environment Programme
ix
Executive Summary
Indias intercity transport demand is mainly met by road and rail. A small part of the demand is met by
air though growth of air traffic has been fast in the last decade. Growth in population, urbanization and
incomes is expected to propel travel demand in future. Given the current trend of declining share of rail,
this demand will largely be met by road-based transport and air, resulting in challenges of national energy
security and greenhouse gas emissions. Increased investments in rail for improving efficiency of railways
and reducing travel time would address the competitiveness of railways and arrest the decline in rail share
in total intercity transport.
The Indian Railways VISION 2020 envisages building four high speed corridors of 2,000 km by 2020 and
further expansion in the future. This report looks at the current intercity transport landscape in India and
analyses future scenarios of intercity passenger transport and the role of HSR within these. The national
scenarios span from 2010 to 2050 and are analysed using a bottom up energy system model: ANSWER
MARKAL and are complemented by a case study of Ahmedabad- Mumbai high speed corridor.
Key findings and recommendations
1. HSR creates opportunities for regional economic development by improving connectivity between
large urban centres, as well as other small and medium cities along the corridors, and generates
socio-economic benefits by improving access to employment, health, education and time savings.
2. HSR can deliver a very sizable reduction in energy in the long-term and, therefore, contribute to
energy security. The energy reductions also provide a significant reduction in CO2 emissions which
get further enhanced when electricity is decarbonized (Figure 1). Significant benefits can therefore
be realized if policies for transport and energy sector are integrated with climate goals.
3. Integrating with other modes, including regional rail and bus services, is essential to enhance the
catchment of HSR. National governments can therefore consider innovative funding mechanisms
that facilitate private sector participation. State and local government can support for building
complimentary infrastructure.
4. HSR can complement as well as compete with air travel. It will compete with air on shorter hauls
(less than 1,000 km) and reduce demand for air, and at the same time improve connectivity of hub
airports with surrounding cities and therefore complement long distance air travel.
5. Upfront investments for developing high speed rail corridors are high, however, the sustainability
benefits are diffused and occur over a longer time frame. Therefore, investments for HSR would
have to be viewed comprehensively for the long-term development benefits they generate.
6. HSR can provide an opportunity to develop domestic manufacturing capacity for wagons and
allied infrastructure.
xi
7. The analysis of the Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor shows that introduction of HSR increases
competition with air and road post 2020. Consequently, the share of rail increases and rail meets
over half the total travel demand in 2050. Due to a shift from air to rail and partly from road to
rail, CO2 emission savings increase gradually post 2020 reaching 0.2 million ton annually by 2050
compared to the No HSR scenario. The most significant benefit of HSR will be balanced regional
development through improved connectivity of the cities located on the corridor.
Figure 1: CO2 Emissions from passenger transport
The The introduction

introduction of high-speed
of high-speed trains
trains has has the
revived revived
sharethe share
of rail of railintransport
transport in many
many countries. countries. In
In India,
additional
India, capacity
additional through HSRthrough
capacity will helpHSR
alleviate congestion
will help alleviateon congestion
major corridors and help
on major increase
corridors and help
the share of rail. Increasing travel demand, personal incomes and affordability and presence of high
increase
density themake
corridors share of rail.
a strong caseIncreasing
for HSR in travel
the futuredemand, personal
of intercity transportincomes
in India. and
HSR affordability
consumes and
less presence
energy compared to air transport and in future, as electricity gets decarbonized, it will
of high density corridors make a strong case for HSR in the future of intercity transport in also deliver
substantial mitigation benefits. However, this report makes a case for viewing HSR beyond costs or
India. mitigation
immediate HSR consumes
benefits,less energy
and as a largercompared to option
sustainability air transport
leading toand in regional
overall future,development
as electricity gets
by connecting several
decarbonized, smallalso
it will anddeliver
mediumsubstantial
cities in India comparedbenefits.
mitigation to air transport
However, where
thisonly select
report few a case
makes
cities benefit.
for viewing HSR beyond costs or immediate mitigation benefits, and as a larger sustainability
option leading to overall regional development by connecting several small and medium cities in
India compared to air transport where only select few cities benefit.
xii
xiii
Photo credit: Brian Stephenson
1. Introduction
1.1 Background
India is currently the fourth largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHG) globally. The transport sector
accounts for 13% of Indias energy-related CO2 emissions (MOEF, 2010), and, as such, opportunities
exist to mitigate GHG emissions and make Indias transport growth more sustainable and climate
compatible by aligning objectives of development and climate change. Indias National Action Plan for
Climate Change (NAPCC) recognizes that GHG emissions from transport can be reduced by adopting
a sustainability approach through a combination of measures, such as increased use of public transport,
higher penetration of biofuels, and enhanced energy efficiency of transport vehicles (GoI, 2008).
This document is produced as part of a larger research project on Promoting Low-Carbon Transport in
India, an initiative of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), hereafter referred to as the
Low-Carbon Transport (LCT) project. The key objectives of the LCT project are as follows:
a) Delineating an enabling environment for coordinating policies at the national level to achieve a
sustainable transport system.
b) Enhancing the capacity of cities to improve mobility with lower CO2 emissions.
The LCT project has been endorsed by the Ministry of Environment and Forests (MoEF), Government
of India, and is jointly implemented by the UNEP DTU Partnership, Denmark (UDP); Indian Institute
of Technology, Delhi (IIT-D); Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad (IIMA); and CEPT
University, Ahmedabad.
1.2 Intercity Transport: The Context

Per capita mobility in India in 2010 was around 6,000 km, which is lower than most developed countries.
Driven by increase in population, GDP and urbanization, intercity passenger demand is expected to reach
nearly 26,000 bpkms by 2050 an increase of 4.3 times relative to 2010 levels. A prominent trend in recent
years is the declining share of rail transport in overall intercity passenger travel, and a corresponding
increase in the share of air and road-based modes. Projections based on current trends show that future
intercity passenger demand will largely be met by road-based transport and a growing share of air
transport, resulting in challenges of national energy security and greenhouse gas emissions. The demand
shift towards low-carbon modes like rail would underpin the low-carbon transition of transport in India.
Transport sector investments and economic development are closely related since they improve
accessibility for passengers and freight transportation (Gutierrez & Urbano, 1996 for EU; Li S.M. &
Shum Y.M. 2001 for China). However, the investments in transport infrastructures are only one of the
necessary conditions (Gutierrez et al., 2010), and need to be matched by other production factors. The
transport sector in India commands a high share of infrastructure investments, which accounts for around
2.6% of the GDP (NTDPC, 2014).Planned transport infrastructure investments in India include: projects
for expansion and upgradation of roads and highways, capacity additions and upgradation of existing
Promoting low carbon transport in India

Scenarios and Roadmap for Intercity Transport in India 1
railways, electrification of rail corridors, dedicated freight corridors, expansion of air infrastructure
constructing high speed rail corridors and mass transit in cities. Transport sector investments in India
highlight the focus on multiple benefits of meeting the transport demands and delivering environmental
and development benefits (Shukla and Pathak, forthcoming).
Railways face strong competition with air and buses for intercity movement. The Government of India
has planned to boost the share of railways in intercity passenger movement by upgrading infrastructure
to increase the speed of existing rail lines, introducing high speed trains on select corridors, improving
overall rail infrastructure and coach services. Recently, the Ministry of Railways, Government of India, has
formed the High Speed Rail Corporation of India Limited (HSRC) for the development and implementation
of high-speed rail projects.
High speed rails have been suggested as a good substitute for conventional railway services on routes
where high capacity is required, to reduce time, to improve the railway services against other modes
ultimately resulting in mode substitution (Givoni, 2006). The report examines the case of HSR as a
sustainable transport option for India, keeping in mind that increasing incomes will lead to higher travel
demand by air and road, economic growth and high transportation demand between large urban centres.
The ability of HSR to link small and medium cities can lead to a more geographically balanced development.
1.3 Scope
The Indian Railways VISION 2020 envisages a two-pronged approach to bringing high speed rail in the
country. The first strategy involves using conventional technology to increase the speed on segregated
passenger corridors on trunk routes, from the existing 80-100kmph to 160-200 kmph. The second approach
involves identifying viable intercity routes to build advanced high speed corridors for speeds up to 350 kmph.
These plans target building four corridors of 2,000 km by 2020 and planning for eight other corridors. These
interventions are expected to deliver significant economic, social and environmental benefits. However, no
explicit analysis of these considerations is available publicly. In this report, the benefits for energy security
and mitigation of CO2 emissions are analysed, thereby contributing to the understanding of the impacts of
HSR in a limited way. Scenario analysis methodology is used for this purpose.
The report is divided into five sections. The first section is the introduction, and sets the context and
scope of the report. The second section very briefly looks at the historical evolution and progress of HSR
projects globally. The third section presents the current intercity transport scenario in India and its future
scenarios, including the demand, key modes and the competition between these. The section explores
how the introduction of HSR will influence modal split and, in turn, energy use and emissions. This is done
by creating alternative storylines for intercity passenger transport, mainly with respect to high speed rail.
The fourth section details the case study of the Mumbai-Ahmedabad High Speed Rail corridor and its
potential impacts on mobility, GHG emissions and socioeconomic impacts. The final section concludes
with a roadmap for enhancing the share of rail in India.
High Speed Rails can help address future travel demands, reduce congestion along major corridors, and
its proposers claim it will achieve the simultaneous benefits of improved mobility, economic development
along the transport corridor, energy security and climate change mitigation. The authors analyse some
of these claims and identify lessons for policy makers and managers planning rail projects in the country.
Since the results are supported by long-term modelling to 2050, the report emphasizes viewing these
investments in the long run, instead of the short-term views that dominate the current debate.

2 Scenarios and Roadmap for Intercity Transport in India
Photo credit: Minal Pathak
2. High Speed Rail
2.1 Background
The High Speed Rail System comprises of the infrastructure system, rolling stock and operating conditions
(UIC, 2015). High speed trains globally differ in their technology, infrastructure, including rolling stock,
and, consequently, achievable speeds. Currently, high speed rails can achieve speeds ranging from 200
kmph to 350 kmph depending on the technology and infrastructure. The European Union defines High
Speed Rail in terms of infrastructure, speed and rolling stock. Trains that can operate at the maximum
speed of 250 kmph for new lines, and 200 kmph on existing lines are defined as high speed rail (Givoni,
2006). In the literature, HSR system is also classified according to the type of connection with the
neighbouring cities, i.e. non-stop between the metropolitan areas, serving intermediate cities between
metropolitan areas, and the relationship between train technology and infrastructure (Urea et al., 2009;
de Rus et al., 2009). Presently, dedicated high speed rail lines are able to achieve speeds over 350kmph,
and upgraded conventional rail lines are able to reach 250 kmph1. High-speed rail has been suggested
as a good substitute to conventional railway services on routes where there is a need to increase the
capacity, improve the service reliability and reduce the travelling time (Givoni, 2006).
With the increase in running speed up to 300-350 kmph, high speed rail service can compete with air over
the medium distance up to 1,000km. HSR has less access, egress and waiting time compared to air
transport (Rus, 2012). Based on past experiences, it has been estimated that when high-speed rail travel
time is less than 2.5 hours, 80% of passengers switch from air to high-speed trains (UIC, 2012). However,
this competitive advantage reduces for long distance travel (approximately 2,000 km), as air transport
has less in vehicle time than HSR. Aside from the travel time difference between the HSR terminal and
air transport, other factors like service quality, service frequency, location and accessibility to airport and
railway station from city centre, and load capacity also have an influence on the competition between air
and rail transport (Dobruszkes, 2011).
2.2 Global Experience

High-speed rail is not a new technology. Historically, high-speed trains have been around since the first
line opened in Japan between Tokyo and Osaka in 1964. After the success of the Tokaido Shinkansen,
which started in 1965, the Japanese government adopted the Shinkansen Development Law in 1970. The
Shinkansen network has expanded significantly since then, with the total length of high-speed railway
network in Japan growing to 2,620 km and carrying around 292 million people in 2010.
1 http://ec.europa.eu/transport/themes/infrastructure/studies/doc/2010_high_speed_rail_en.pdf Accessed March 1, 2014. The

upgrade of conventional rail lines requires some modification to tracks but new rolling stock however the speed achieved will
depend on the track infrastructure e.g., trains running on narrow gauge would be difficult to upgrade to a speeds above 150
km per hour

Shinkansen, which started in 1965, the Japanese government adopted the Shinkansen Development
Law in 1970. The Shinkansen network has expanded significantly since then, with the total length
of high-speed railway network in Japan growing to 2,620 km and carrying around 292 million
people in 2010.
Figure 2.1: Length of HSR network in Selected Countries (km)
25000
20000
China
Japan
15000
Italy
kms
10000 Germany
France
5000 Spain
Denmark
0
Figure 2.1: Length of HSR network in Selected Countries (km)

Source: NBSC (2014); MLIT (2014);EU (2014)
Source: NBSC (2014); MLIT (2014); EU (2014)

The success of Shinkansen in Japan triggered HSR investments in other countries. The French National
Railway decided to build a high-speed railway line in 1981aiming to increase the capacity on the congested
The success of Shinkansen in Japan triggered HSR investments in other countries. The French
route between Paris and Lyon. This was the first HSR line to open in Europe. After the commencement
ofNational Railway
TGV-Sud-Est decided
in 1985, to buildextended
the network a high-speed
furtherrailway
to other line in such
areas, 1981aiming to increase
as south-western the the
France, capacity
south of France, eastern France, Germany, Belgium, and Holland. Other European countries like Spain,
on the congested route between Paris and Lyon. This was the first HSR line to open in Europe. After
Germany and Italy also adopted this technology and have HSR networks (Figure 2.1). Learning from the
the commencement
experiences of Europe andof TGV-Sud-Est
Japan, Asian in 1985, the
countries, network
including extended
Taiwan, Korea further to other
and China, began areas, such as
to invest
in dedicated high-speed lines. Globally, HSR networks cover over 20,000km, 60% of which is in Asia and
south-western France, the south of France, eastern France, Germany, Belgium, and Holland. Other
the rest in Europe, with a very small share of other countries including the United States. The US has
anEuropean
ambitious countries like Spain,
plan to introduce Germany
over 17,000 milesand Italy also
of national high adopted
speed railthis technology
network, and have
which includes the HSR
California HSR corridor (Box 1) (USHSR, 2015).
networks (Figure 2.1). Learning from the experiences of Europe and Japan, Asian countries,
including
The Taiwan,railway
first high-speed Korea connection
and China,wasbegan to invest
inaugurated in in dedicated
2008 between high-speed lines. Globally,
Beijing and Tianjin in China HSR
and since then, Chinas high-speed rail network has expanded at a rapid pace. This was an outcome of
networks cover over 20,000km, 60% of which is in Asia and the rest in Europe, with a very small
aggressive government proposals to invest in HSR infrastructure, resulting in a significant expansion of
HSR network in the country in a relatively short span of time. With a length of over 6,000 km, China has
a third of the global HSR length, which equals the aggregate share of European countries (Figures 2.1.
15
and 2.2).

share of other countries including the United States. The US has an ambitious plan to introduce over
17,000 miles of national high speed rail network, which includes the California HSR corridor (Box
1) (USHSR, 2015).
Figure 2.2: Share by country in Cumulative HSR length
Netherlands
Taiwan-China Belgium 1%
2% 1% UK
USA 1%
South Korea 2%
2%
Turkey
3%
Italy
5%
China
37%
Germany
7%
France
11%
Spain
12% Japan
16%
Source: UIC (2015)
Figure 2.2 Share by country in Cumulative HSR length

Figure 2.3: Existing and Proposed HSR lines (2015)
Source: UIC (2015)
In operation Under construction Planned

The first high-speed railway connection was inaugurated in 2008 between Beijing and Tianjin in
16000
China 14000
and since then, Chinas high-speed rail network has expanded at a rapid pace. This was an
12000
outcome of aggressive government proposals to invest in HSR infrastructure, resulting in a
10000
significant expansion of HSR network in the country in a relatively short span of time. With a length
kms
of over 8000
6,000 km, China has a third of the global HSR length, which equals the aggregate share of
6000
European countries (Figures 2.1.and 2.2).
4000
2000
0
Iran
Japan
Italy
USA
Russia
Spain
Switzerland
Brazil
Sweden
China
France
Portugal
India
Turkey
Belgium
Morocco
Germany
Poland
Taiwan-China
Saudi Arabia
South Korea
United Kingdom
The Netherlands
16
Source: UIC (2015)

Figure 2.3 Existing and Proposed HSR lines (2015)
Source: UICScenarios
(2015) and Roadmap for Intercity Transport in India 7
There is a renewed impetus to augment rail infrastructure, in particular the HSR. Several countries have
initiated ambitious investments in HSR projects aimed at expanding networks and introducing new lines
(Figure 2.3). HSR has evolved significantly with respect to technology, speed, safety and comfort, and
this differentiates the new HSR capacity additions e.g. the proposed HSR line in Japan along the
existing corridor between Tokyo and Osaka will run on magnetic levitation, and proposes to double the
passenger capacity and half the travel time.
Figure 2.4: Modal share in Passenger Transport US, EU, China and Japan
Figure 2.4: Modal share in Passenger Transport US, EU, China and Japan
Source: EU (2014)
Source: EU (2014)
2.3 Modal share
Globally, road transport dominates the share in passenger transport (Figure 2.4). Rail transport has a
2.3. share,
sizeable Modal share
however, in several countries, it has lost significant share to road and air transport. The
introduction of high-speed trains has revived the share of rail transport in many countries. For example,
since the introduction of Shinkansen in 1965, the share of high-speed railways in total demand by rail in
Globally,
Japan hasroad transport
increased dominates
from 4% thearound
in 1965 to share24%in passenger
of total railtransport (Figure
passenger-km 2.4). Rail transport has
in 2010.
a sizeable share, however, in several countries, it has lost significant share to road and air transport.
Figure 2.5 shows the changing share of HSR in passenger kilometres by rail between the years 2000 and
The introduction of high-speed trains has revived the share of rail transport in many countries. For
2010 in the EU, USA, Japan and China. China has shown a remarkable growth from a very small share at
inception
example,tosince
over the
10%introduction
in 2010. In Europe, the share in
of Shinkansen ranges
1965,from
theasshare
low as
ofaround 10% torailways
high-speed over 30%.
inThe
total
demand by rail in Japan has increased from 4% in 1965 to around 24% of total rail passenger-km in
2010.
Figure 2.5 shows the changing share of HSR in passenger kilometres by rail between the years 2000
over 30%. The shares of HSR in Spain and France are higher at 50% and 60%, respectively. Overall,
shares of HSR in Spain and France are higher at 50% and 60%, respectively. Overall, the share of HSR in
the share of HSR in total rail kilometres has increased to 30% in the EU27.
total rail kilometres has increased to 30% in the EU27.
Within the EU, high-speed rail networks have expanded from domestic to international lines. The Eurostar
Within the EU, high-speed rail networks have expanded from domestic to international lines. The
between London and Paris transported10 million passengers in 2013 and earned an operative profit of
Eurostar 2between
54million London
. The railway andinParis
share total transported10 milliontravel
intercity passenger passengers in 2013
increased and earned
2.5 times betweenanBrussels
and Paris after the introduction2 of HSR service (UIC, 2012).
operative profit of 54million . The railway share in total intercity passenger travel increased 2.5
times between
Figure Brussels
2.5: Share ofand Paris after rail
high-speed the introduction
in passengerof HSR service (UIC,
transport 2012).
in different countries
Figure 2.5: Share of high-speed rail in passenger transport in different countries

Source: MLIT (2014), EU (2014), NBSC (2014)
Source: MLIT (2014), EU (2014), NBSC (2014)
2
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/mar/05/eurostar-passenger-figures-10-million-2013 Accessed March 6,
2 2014.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/mar/05/eurostar-passenger-figures-10-million-2013 Accessed March 6, 2014.
19
Global experiences show that the level of economic development was a major influencing factor for
the introduction of HSR. As income grows, the opportunity cost of time increases and people shift
Global experiences show that the level of economic development was a major influencing factor for the
towards faster
introduction modes
of HSR. of travelgrows,
As income (Schafer & Victor, 2000).
the opportunity Moreover,
cost of comfort
time increases andand reliability
people also
shift towards
faster
assumemodes of travel with
importance (Schafer
rise& in
Victor, 2000).
income. Moreover,
The comfort
construction of and reliabilityrailways
high-speed also assume importance
in European
with rise in income. The construction of high-speed railways in European countries started when the per
countries
capita GDPstarted when
was in the theofper
range USD capita GDP was in
17,000-27,000 the range
(Figure of USD 17,000-27,000
2.6). However, (Figure
in the case of Asian 2.6).
countries
like Japan and
However, China,
in the theAsian
case of construction
countries began at relatively
like Japan earlythe
and China, stages of development.
construction began atFor instance,
relatively
Chinas per capita GDP was around USD 3,000 when the construction of the first HSR line between
early stages of development.
Qinhuangdao-Shenyang For instance,
commenced in 1999.Chinas per capita GDP was around USD 3,000 when the
construction of the first HSR line between Qinhuangdao-Shenyang commenced in 1999.
Figure 2.6: GDP per capita at the time of first HSR construction in different countries
Figure 2.6: GDP per capita at the time of first HSR construction in different countries
Source: World Bank database
Source: World Bank database
High population density of connecting cities was also an influencing factor for the introduction of several
Highcorridors.
HSR population density
In these of connecting
cases, citiesrailway
the high-speed was also anwere
lines influencing factor forthe
built to increase thecapacity,
introduction ofto
in order
satisfy
severalthe highcorridors.
HSR travel demand between
In these cases,densely populated railway
the high-speed cities. A lines
high frequency
were builtofto high speed trains
increase the
with advanced signalling systems increases the passenger carrying capacity on overcrowded routes
capacity, inlarge
connecting order to satisfy the high travel demand between densely populated cities. A high
cities.
20
The first high-speed rail operation started between Tokyo and Osaka, where the population density was in
the range of 2,000-3,000 persons per square kilometre. The transport demand generated due to the high
concentration of population rationalised the HSR projects in countries like China and Japan, despite the
relatively low per capita GDP at the time of construction (Vickerman et al., 1999; Gutirrez et al., 1996).
2.4 Benefits of HSR

High speed rails transport more passengers per unit of energy compared to all other modes, including
regional suburban rail, air, bus and private car (UIC, 2010). In recent years, aircraft efficiency and fuel
economy for passenger cars has improved substantially. Currently, new aircrafts are 20-30% more efficient
than older ones (Sims et al., 2014). Although aircraft efficiency is projected to undergo improvements in
the future, these will be slow due to long aircraft life and limited options for fuel switching, except from
biofuels. Fuel economy standards for passenger cars are also expected to improve substantially in the
future. Meanwhile, HSR will benefit from energy efficiency through advanced technology and design,
further decarbonisation of electricity and other measures including regenerative braking (ibid).
High-speed trains offer the advantages of improved mobility through comfort, and convenience through
seamless connectivity with local transport modes, compared to air travel. Compared to conventional
rails, time savings from high-speed rails are significant. This also includes time saved from travelling to
the terminals within the city. As an alternative against air travel, HSR offers convenience through better
connectivity to local transport infrastructure. Since HSR can use rail infrastructure within cities, time
for intra-city commuting to and from terminals can be reduced through strategic planning of stations
within cities.
Total CO2 emissions per 100 passenger kilometres by HSR are four times less than air travel and three
times less than car travel (UIC, 2010). However, CO2 emissions depend on a number of factors, including
the design of the system (speed and distance between stops), capacity utilization3 and carbon content
of electricity. There is a discussion over high-speed rails contributing to large emissions in the short-term
if embedded emissions are considered. However, research shows that high traffic volumes could recover
costs and balance construction emissions, provided most of the traffic diverted from other modes is from
aviation, and the project does not involve the extensive use of tunnels (Westin and Kageson, 2012). Table
2.1 highlights the reported benefits of HSR on social, environmental and economic dimensions.
3 http://www.c2es.org/technology/factsheet/Aviation, Accessed April 18, 2015.

Table 2.1: Benefits of HSR
Dimensions Impacts References

(Z. Chen &
Increase the number of tourist arrivals Haynes, 2015;
Impact on tourism Have impact on travel destination choice Masson & Petiot,
Boost the tourism market 2009; Pagliara,
2014)
Increase in real estate prices
(Andersson, Shyr,
Increase in productivity due to time saving & Fu, 2010; Chen
Economic Impact Stimulated economic growth in the nearby & de Abreu e
cities Silva, 2014; Gins
De Rus, 2012;
Increase in average market potential for the
Zheng & Kahn,
cities connected by high speed train due to
2013)
better accessibility
Better accessibility to health and education (Gines de Rus &

centres Nombela, 2007;
Social Impact
Givoni, 2007a;
Better social cohesion UIC, 2011)
Less pollutant emissions compared to air(Chester &

(for example: journey between Heathrow and
Horvath, 2012;
Paris by aircraft results overall in three times
Givoni, 2007b;
more emissions of pollutants than by HSR)
Kamga & Yazici,
Impact on
HSR is on average 2-5 times more energy 2014; Miyoshi &
environment
efficient than air and cars Givoni, 2014)
Shift of traffic from energy intensive mode
like air to HSR, due to comparable speed for
medium distance travel

High speed rail is also more efficient on land use an average high-speed line uses 3.2 ha per km
compared to 9.3 ha per km for an average motorway (UIC, 2012). Land impacts can be significantly
reduced if new high-speed lines are laid out parallel to existing motorways.
Time savings is one of the most significant benefits of HSR over conventional rail and road. HSR has been
shown to be more time efficient compared to air for distances below 1,000 km, if the access and egress to
airports is considered. HSR also delivers multiple benefits including: revitalizing cities, encouraging high-
density real estate development along corridors, boosting the development potential of smaller cities along
the corridor, providing employment access and choice to workers through better connectivity, linking cities
into integrated economic regions and enhancing tourism4. Moreover, in comparison to air transport that
links two cities without any stopovers, HSR connects many more mid-cities and also several smaller towns
through feeder lines that facilitate more balanced development along the high-speed rail corridor(Dutzik
and Steva, 2010; UIC,2012; UIC,2010). For example, areas surrounding Frankfurt-Cologne where high-
4 http://www.ushsr.com/benefits/economic.html Accessed April 18, 2015.

speed rail stations were built, witnessed a 2.7% rise in overall economic activity compared to the rest of
the region (Dutzik and Steva, 2010).High speed rail reduces congestion on conventional rail and road and
is also safer. Recognizing the multiple benefits of HSR, the state of California has initiated an ambitious
project connecting San Francisco to the Los Angeles basin with HSR, which is expected to deliver a range
of benefits including emission savings of 1.3 million tonnes of CO2e at the end of Phase I (Box I).
Box 1: High Speed Rail in California
The state of California is one of the most important actors in the United States in terms of green
development. California has achieved its success with almost no federal or international support.
With the strong intention to take action to limit climate change, in 2006 the state launched, under
Arnold Schwarzeneggers mandate, the Global Warming Solutions Act better known as law AB32.
Through this law, the state has committed itself to reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels
by 2020 and reducing them 80% by 2050.
An important milestone in Californias green agenda is the High Speed Rail connecting the mega
regions of the state. According to the current plans, a high speed rail link will connect San Francisco
to the Los Angeles basin by 2029. With a speed of over 200 miles per hour, this will cut travel time
to less than three hours. The states links will further expand, totalling 800 miles, connecting other
urban centres. The HSR is seen as an important part of the overall strategy of meeting Californias
climate goals.
High Speed Rail Authoritys GHG Report to the Legislature highlights the low-carbon benefits
of HSR. At the end of Phase I, the project will reduce 1.3 million tonnes of CO2e as a result of
offering mobility choices, and consequently decreasing vehicle miles travelled by passenger vehicle
and airplane. The project is seen as part of the sustainable growth strategy that will reduce traffic
and airport congestion and energy dependency, contribute to economic development and a cleaner
environment, create jobs and preserve agricultural and protected lands.
Source: http://www.hsr.ca.gov/ Accessed May 15, 2014
2.5 Construction cost

High speed rails need significant upfront investment for the development of dedicated tracks, stations and
signalling systems. The construction costs depend on a number of factors including type of tracks, land
acquisition cost, choice of technology maximum operating speed, number of tunnels, bridges and viaducts
involved, number and scale of stations (Ollivieretal.,2014;Peterman,2013). The construction cost of the
high speed line increases with the operating speed of the train as advanced signalling system, limited
curvature, modest gradients and several other design modification are required at higher speeds. The
cost of building HSR on level terrain is more cost effective compared to building special structures like
bridges or tunnels in order to accommodate special topographical features including rivers and mountains
along the route.

Table 2.2: Construction cost of HSR in different countries
Country USD million per km

China 17-21
Europe 25-39
California 52
India 20
Source: World Bank (2014)
Globally, the construction cost per km of HSR varies between USD 17 and 52 million (Table 2.2).The
construction cost is low in China compared to other countries due to low labour costs, domestic capacity
to manufacture construction equipment and standardization of design and manufacturing process of
construction equipment like bridge beams and slab track. Upgrading the existing tracks and signalling
system to increase the speed has a lower cost than constructing a dedicated track especially for HSR.
However, topographic features of existing tracks place limitations on the potential speed improvements.
It has been argued that high speed rails are an expensive solution. However, given the multiple benefits
of HSR, described in Section 2.4, its cost should be evaluated on the basis of the value it generates at
the local, regional and national levels. In addition, the shift to rail will save funds on aviation infrastructure
and facilities.

Photo credit: Daniel Simon

3. The Case for HSR in India
3.1 Intercity Transport in India

Effective transport connectivity is essential for economic development. Indias transport sector is a
rapidly growing sector, contributing 6.6% of Indias GDP. Despite its significant growth, the sector suffers
from capacity constraints, poor infrastructure conditions and inefficiency (World Bank 2013). Presently,
road transport dominates intercity transport in India with a share of over two-thirds, followed by rail and
a limited share of air transport (Dhar and Shukla, 2015) (Annexure 1). There is extensive air connectivity
between larger cities, which is expanding rapidly.
Road transport mostly includes buses operated by State Road Transport Corporations, private companies
and private car transport. These are mainly high-density short-haul trips, preferred due to the unavailability
of other efficient alternatives, such as rail-based public transport systems (Gota, 2012). The share of cars
in intercity road transport has increased due to higher incomes and improvements of selected highways
in the country. The highway network in India, on a length per square kilometre basis, is among the highest
in the world. However, most highways in the country are narrow and congested with poor surface quality
(World Bank, 2013). In addition, a common network between passenger and freight transport adds to
problems for both passenger and freight transportation through rail (Pangotra and Shukla, 2012).
Indian railways take up a significant share of intercity transport in the country. First introduced in 1853,
this is the largest railway network in Asia, with a ridership of nearly 23 million passenger kilometres daily
(GoI, 2012). Between 1951 and 2011, rail passenger traffic has increased by six times from 1.3 billion to
7.8 billion. During this period, the rail network has also expanded substantially and has a network length of
115,000 km and connects 7,500 centres. Indian Railways, however, suffer from huge capacity constraints
and poor infrastructure. Consequently, the share of rail in intercity transport has been decreasing. The
share of rail in overall motorized passenger travel has dropped from over 40% in 1970 to 11% in 2010 due
to high competition from road transport.
3.2 Investments in Transport Infrastructure

The transport sector took 45% of the total infrastructure investments and 2.6% of GDP in the eleventh
plan period, 2007 to 2012 (GoI, 2012). Key focus areas of the Government of India include expansion and
modernization of transport infrastructure, including expansion and upgradation of roads and highways,
reducing congestion in railways, investments in dedicated freight corridors, expansion of air infrastructure
and investments in high speed rail.
Intercity passenger travel is expected to increase significantly in the future (Dhar & Shukla, 2015;
NTDPC, 2014) due to rapid urbanization, increasing personal incomes and improved infrastructure. Indian
Railways, however, has seen a fall in the shares of both passengers and goods transported over the last
60 years. The government of India recognizes the implications of this modal transformation on energy
security. For intercity passenger transport, policies aim to increase rail competitiveness by raising the
average speed and improving efficiency.

The Indian government has set an ambitious agenda for introducing HSR in the country. The Diamond
Quadrilateral project of the Government of India aims to establish an HSR quadrilateral that will connect
the four metro cities in India i.e. Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata. Presently, feasibility studies
are on-going for three corridors, and other corridors are identified for pre-feasibility assessments
(HSRC, 2015).
The Railways Vision 2020 issued by the Ministry of Railways (MOR), government of India, plans to build a
2,000 km High Speed Railways Network (HSR) by 2020(Figure3.1).The proposed Diamond Quadrilateral
HSR network will link the four metro cities of India1. These are mainly high-density corridors and range
from 135-991 km in length2. In February 2012, the Expert Group for Modernization of Indian Railways
recommended undertaking a detailed study for selected corridors. Currently, a feasibility assessment for
three projects is in progress. A high speed rail line between Mumbai-Ahmedabad is the first line which
has been undertaken in a detailed feasibility study. The Mumbai-Ahmedabad corridor is explored in detail
in Chapter 4.
In order to facilitate HSR infrastructure, the Ministry of Railways, government of India, has created
a special purpose vehicle, the High Speed Rail Corporation of India Limited (HSRC). HSRC will deal
with all aspects of HSR in India, including conducting technical analysis and feasibility studies, exploring
financing models all stages of project development from plan to execution, construction, operation
and maintenance3.
3.3 Driving forces
Economic growth and travel demand
In 2008, the average distance per trip was 229 km, while the average distance per trip for premium
segments was 624 km (GoI, 2010). Currently, rail transport infrastructure in India suffers from a significant
gap between supply and demand. The average occupancy ratio4 between 2004 and 2008 ranged between
250 and 300 per coach, indicating huge overcrowding. For second class coaches5, the occupancy ratio
ranged between 400 and 500 (GoI, 2010). For longer rail journeys, advance bookings are made nearly
120 days ahead of the trip. This imposes a restriction on mobility choices, especially for the income group
that cannot afford to travel by air and, therefore, would only have to opt for road transport (buses, taxis
and personal cars).High-speed rails will add new capacity along congested corridors, thereby catering to
some part of unmet demand. It will also allow the connecting of regional centres to the network, which
may not be connected by air.
Indias per capita GDP in 2010 was USD2, 983, in PPP terms. Since HSR involves huge upfront costs,
it is argued that this is an expensive solution for India. According to OECD estimates, Indias per capita
GDP is expected to reach USD5,000, in PPP terms, in 2020 which corresponds to Japans per capita
GDP in 1965 when the first high-speed train service started between Tokyo to Osaka.
1 Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai
2 http://hsrc.in/backgroundExpertGroup.html Accessed March 1, 2014.
3 http://hsrc.in/index.html. Accessed on September 16, 2014
4 Occupancy Ratio: average number of passengers to total seatingcapacityor seats offered, multiplied by 100 (Singh, 2006).
5 Indian trains typically have three classes: first, second and third class, with the highest ticket price for the first class.

Figure 3.1: Potential HSR lines in India
Sources: Goyal A. (2015); GoI (2015)

Figure 3.1 Potential HSR lines in India
Sources: Goyal A. (2015); GoI (2015)

28
Urbanization and city regions
Indias urban population is approximately 384 million, of which a large part still resides in small and medium
cities (less than million).However, the number of million plus cities is also increasing quickly (Singh, 2012),
and in 2011 there were 43 cities with a population of more than 1 million. As more economic opportunities
exist in the million plus cities, a large number of people commute for work from smaller cities to the million
plus cities. Economic growth and the corresponding rise in personal incomes will also increase leisure trips.
With the growth of metropolitan suburbs, Indias spatial transformation is occurring rapidly. There is
a recent debate on whether the benefits of this transformation are spreading uniformly over space
and whether there is a need for interventions that can support the spread of economic activity without
impacting overall economic development (World Bank, 2013). From a spatial equity perspective, HSR can
help in redistributing economic development and population density by enhancing opportunities for the
smaller cities (less than million) along the corridor. HSR can facilitate the labour and residential market
for the larger cities, and open up new economic and territorial opportunities for the intermediate cities
(Garmendia et al., 2012).
Regional development depends a great deal on the connectivity of production centres to markets. High-
speed rail improves connectivity between urban centres, thereby playing an important role in facilitating
socioeconomic development. Efficient intercity travel can improve connectivity, provide better access
to regional markets, take advantage of agglomeration forces, and lead to reduced transportation costs.
There is a relationship between centrality of regions and economic wealth (Ahfeldt and Federson, 2010)
and, therefore, investments in national and regional infrastructure facilitates socioeconomic development
and enhances competitiveness of urban centres.
Recognizing the potential of transport connectivity to enhance economic growth at a regional level,
the Government of India has focused in recent years on large intercity transport projects. The Delhi-
Mumbai Industrial Corridor is one such project aimed at improving regional connectivity and facilitating
economic development (DMICDC, 2015). Evidence shows a modal shift from air transport for rail journey
times of around3 hours, as well as generation of new trips. Studies have shown that the introduction of
HSR has resulted in altered patterns of regional travel by expanding the access to major urban centres
(Amos et al., 2010).
High-speed rails in India will facilitate the horizontal integration by improving connectivity of cities
with each other and unifying the region. A study looking at HSR infrastructure in India concluded that
adding HSR along the Bangalore-Mysore corridor would improve social and economic linkages between
intermediate cities. This will generate secondary impacts of local economic development in these small
towns, with improvement of infrastructure and value added to local businesses (Verma et al., 2013).
Presence of high-density corridors
High Speed Rail (HSR) is especially suited to replace short-distance passenger air travel in some
circumstances, such as spatial corridors with high densities. The European and Japanese experience
has shown HSR to generally be competitive with air travel on routes of up to 300-500 miles, where there
exists high demand for intercity travel and where several high-population areas can be connected along
a single corridor6.
6 http://www.c2es.org/technology/factsheet/Aviation . Accessed on April 19, 2015.

The presence of several high-density corridors in China has greatly influenced the success of HSR. It has
been stated that, high-speed rail investment is difficult to justify when the expected first year demand is
below 810 million passengers for a line of 500 km (de Rus & Nombela, 2007). Based on the European
experience, it has been suggested that linking large urban centres could generate a ridership of 12-
15 million passengers, which would ensure the viability of HSR operation (Vickerman, 1997). India has
several such corridors for example, the Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor had a ridership of 18 million
in 2010.
Intermodal competition
Presently, Indian trains operate at a maximum speed of around 130 kmph for the majority of trains, with a
few express trains achieving upto 150-160 kmph. Railways have started losing share to modes like road
and air for intercity travel due to capacity constraints and inadequate connectivity with other modes,
which can lead to higher total travel time by rail. Air transport has already witnessed a rapid growth in the
last decade, and the demand is expected to increase further with the rising incomes of future travellers.
In addition to increasing the capacity of railways, HSR lines on major corridors will compete with air in the
future, improving competitiveness of rail against air transport. Globally, air traffic has been found to be
lower on a number of routes where the modes compete (Albalate and Bel, 2012; Jimnez and Betancor,
2012; Cheng, 2010), however, in cases of hub airports with internal HSR stations, HSR could have a
complimentary impact (Albalate et al., 2015).
The modal shift of business travellers with greater ability to pay to HSR will reduce congestion on existing
railways and deliver mobility benefits to a large section of middle and low-income travellers. Currently,
infrastructure upgradation is happening sequentially, with slow trains being upgraded to medium speed
trains (160 kmph). Early investments in HSR on major rail corridors in India can offer the opportunity
for leapfrogging by significantly increasing capacity on existing corridors. Improving linkages between
regional centres can further increase the catchment area of HSR beyond the cities connected on the
HSR line.
HSR fares are higher compared to those of conventional rail. The passenger profile is expected to change
in the future. The opportunity cost of time will rise with increase in per capita income, which will result
in traffic shift towards faster modes of transport, like air and car, for intercity travel. HSR will become a
convenient access for business trips where affordability and time value may be higher. Yao and Morikawa
(2005) have found business railroad travellers to be more sensitive to changes in travel time, access time,
and service frequency than non-business travellers. Models predict that a rise in passengers time value,
representing growth in business travellers, increases the demand for HSR (Hsu et al., 2010).
3.4 Scenarios
In order to look at the future of intercity transport in India, two scenarios were explored: the Business-as-
Usual scenario and the HSR scenario. The business-as-usual (BAU) scenario follows the current policy
dynamics, while the HSR scenario assumes a faster implementation of HSR in India. In both scenarios,
the level of economic development and population are kept the same. The total intercity passenger travel
demand is projected to increase by four times, from the current 6,772 bpkm in 2010 to 25,941 bpkm in
2050 in the BAU scenario. The methodology for projecting the travel demand is described in Dhar and
Shukla (2015).

Business-as-Usual
The Business-as Usual scenario assumes implementation of the planned HSR corridors (Section 3.2)
and upgradation of other prominent corridors for semi high speed trains (160-200 kmph).The rail share,
however, is projected to go down from 16.1% in 2010 to 14.1% in the BAU scenario (Table 3.1) due to a
slower pace of implementation resulting from difficulties in the financing required for these projects. The
NTDPC assumes that to reverse the decline in share of rail, investments would have to be increased from
0.3% of GDP to 1.2% of GDP (NTDPC, 2014), which is considered to be difficult in the BAU scenario. It is
assumed that in the BAU scenario, the first HSR corridor (Ahmedabad-Mumbai) will become operational
by 2025and the quadrilateral length of 2,000 km will be operational in 2030. Rail would also lose share
due to the increase in preference for air resulting from rising incomes, upgradation of air infrastructure
and greater value for time. The demand for rail would grow in absolute terms (Figure 3.1).
Table 3.1: Share of railways in BAU and HSR Scenario
Scenario 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

BAU 16.1% 16.1% 14.4% 13.6% 14.1%
HSR Scenario 16.1% 16.1% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%
HSR scenario
This scenario assumes a more aggressive approach to introducing HSR, which is accompanied by an
increase in allocation to railways in line with NTDPC recommendations. Compared to BAU, the speed of
implementation of HSR corridors in this scenario increases significantly. The HSR scenario also assumes
a stronger implementation of semi high speed corridors. All these targeted investments are expected
to prevent any further decline in the share of railways and push up the share to 30% in 2050 (Table
3.1), catering to a demand of 7,004 billion passenger kilometres. The 30% mode share for rail has been
provided exogenously, and links to experiences from outside India e.g. Japan, which has a very elaborate
network of railways, has a mode share of 27% (Tiwari and Gulati, 2013).The HSR scenario also considers
an overall policy of promoting public transportation within the interconnected cities, and improved urban
and regional planning which can result in higher a concentration of populations and provide the necessary
ridership for making HSR economically viable.
3.5 About the Model

The ANSWER MARKAL model was used for the analysis of the scenarios. MARKAL is a mathematical
model for evaluating the energy system, and has a detailed characterization of technology, fuel mix and
investment decisions at detailed end-use level, while maintaining consistency with system constraints
such as energy supply, demand, investment and emissions (Loulou et al., 2004). The ANSWER MARKAL
model framework has been used extensively for India (Shukla et al., 2008, 2009). Assessing the role of
intercity transport in the long-term involves analysing cost competitiveness with other vehicle technologies
and interaction with different energy markets. Choices on modes within the transport sector depend on
investments into infrastructure e.g. rail, road, etc. These modal transitions are handled separately (see
Dhar & Shukla, 2015) and provided as exogenous inputs to the MARKAL model.

and Gulati, 2013).The HSR scenario also considers an overall policy of promoting public
transportation within the interconnected cities, and improved urban and regional planning which
can result in higher a concentration of populations and provide the necessary ridership for making
HSR economically viable.
Figure 3.2: Mode share in BAU and HSR Scenario
Passenger Transport Demand - Inter-city Passenger Transport Demand - Inter-city
BAU (Bpkm) High Speed Rail (Bpkm)
25,000 25,000
20,000 20,000
15,000The ANSWER MARKAL model was used for the analysis

15,000 of the scenarios. MARKAL is a mathematical
model for evaluating the energy system, and has a detailed characterization of technology, fuel mix
10,000and 10,000while maintaining consistency with system
investment decisions at detailed end-use level,
constraints such as energy supply, demand, investment and emissions (Loulou et al., 2004). The
5,000 5,000
ANSWER MARKAL model framework has been used extensively for India (Shukla et al., 2008, 2009).
- Assessing the role of intercity transport in the long-term
- involves analysing cost competitiveness
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
with other vehicle technologies and interaction with different energy markets. Choices on modes
Air Road Rail Air Road Rail
within the transport sector depend on investments into infrastructure -- e.g. rail, road, etc. These
modal transitions are handled separately (see Dhar & Shukla, 2015) and provided as exogenous
Figure
inputs to the MARKAL
Figure 3.3: Energy 3.2:by
model.
Demand Mode
Fuelshare
in BAUin BAU and HSR Scenario
3.5. About the Model Oil Gas Electricity Others

350
300
250
200 33
Mtoe
150
100
50
-
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Figure 3.3: Energy Demand by Fuel in BAU

3.6 Energy and GHG emissions
Presently,3.6. Energy and
road transport GHG intercity
dominates emissions passenger transport with a share of 83%. In BAU, intercity
travel demand is expected to increase by 4.2 times by 2050. The share of road will dominate in BAU and
the sharePresently,
of rail willroad
decrease marginally,
transport dominateswhile air transport
intercity passengerwill increase
transport share
with fromofbelow
a share 83%. 1% in 2010 to
In BAU,
3.7% in 2050 (Figure3.2). Both road and air transport largely depend on oil, as a result of which oil will
intercity travel demand is expected to increase by 4.2 times by 2050. The share of road will
continue to remain the fuel of choice for passenger transport (Figure 3.3). Comparing energy demand by
dominate in BAU and the share of rail will decrease marginally, while air transport will increase
mode, cars and buses will take up significant demand in 2030 and 2050 (Figure 3.4).The high dependence
on oil willshare from below
also result 1% in 2010
in a six-fold to 3.7%
increase in 2050
in CO2 (Figure3.2).
emissions from Both
2010road and 3.5).
(Figure air transport largely
depend on oil, as a result of which oil will continue to remain the fuel of choice for passenger
34
transport (Figure 3.3). Comparing energy demand by mode, cars and buses will take up significant
demand in 2030 and 2050 (Figure 3.4).The high dependence on oil will also result in a six-fold
increase
Figure 3.4:inEnergy
CO2 emissions
Demandfrom by
2010 (Figure 3.5).
Mode
350
300
250 Rail
200 Bus
Mtoe
Air
150
4 Wheeler
100 3 Wheeler
50 2 Wheeler
-
BAU HSR BAU HSR
2010 2030 2050
Increased investments in rail forFigureimproving3.4:efficiency

Energy Demand
of railwaysby Mode
and building high speed corridors are a
way to address the decline in rail share in total intercity transport kilometres. In the HSR scenario, due
to an increased
Increased share of rail,
investments the for
in rail demand for road-based
improving efficiency transport
of railwaysand
andairbuilding
declinehigh
(Figure
speed3.2). Since rail
corridors
is highly efficient in energy used per passenger kilometre, especially when the occupancy is high, the
are a way to address the decline in rail share in total intercity transport kilometres. In the HSR
increase in energy demand for hauling the additional passenger kilometres is not very significant. This
helpsscenario, duea very
to deliver to ansizable
increased share in
reduction ofenergy
rail, the
in demand for road-based
the long-term (Figure 3.4) transport and air contribute
and, therefore, decline
to energy
(Figuresecurity. Therail
3.2). Since efficiency
is highlyofefficient
railwaysinisenergy
also enhanced
used perdue to a greater
passenger use ofespecially
kilometre, electricitywhen
by the
rail transport sector. The energy reductions also provide a significant reduction in CO2 emissions which
get the occupancy
further enhanced is when
high, electricity
the increase in energy demand
is decarbonized, due to afor hauling
higher sharethe additional passenger
of renewables and nuclear,
kilometres
within the HSRisplus
notlow-carbon
very significant.
scenarioThis helps3.5).
(Figure to deliver a very sizable reduction in energy in the
long-term (Figure 3.4) and, therefore, contribute to energy security. The efficiency of railways is
Figure 3.5: CO2 Emissions from passenger transport
also enhanced due to a greater use of electricity by the rail transport sector. The energy reductions
also provide a1,000.00
significant reduction in CO2 emissions which get further enhanced when electricity is
BAU
decarbonized, due to a higher share of renewables and nuclear, within the HSR plus low-carbon
scenario (Figure800.00
3.5).
CO2 Emissions (Million tCO2)
HSR
600.00
HSR Low
400.00 Carbon
35
200.00
-
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

24 Figure
Scenarios and Roadmap 3.5: CO
for Intercity 2 Emissions
Transport in India from passenger transport
Photo credit: Hanvit Uiwang
4. Ahmedabad-Mumbai HSR Corridor
4.1 About the corridor

As the first planned HSR corridor in the country, the Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor envisages high speed
train services between two major cities in western India Mumbai and Ahmedabad. The planned corridor
will span a length of 530 km starting from Mumbai and following the existing rail alignment in Gujarat,
connecting the cities of Surat, Vadodara and, finally, Ahmedabad (Figure 4.1). With a speed of over 300
kmph, this will reduce travel time between Ahmedabad and Mumbai to less than two hours.
An investment of Rs. 600 billion is expected for developing HSR infrastructure. The project will be financed
through a mix of governmental funds, multilateral funding and by alternative means of resource mobilization,
including Public-Private Partnership (PPP). The financial and operational feasibility assessment is under
progress by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA).
With a population of 6.4 million and 19.7 million in 2011, Ahmedabad and Mumbai are large business
centres that contribute significantly to the national GDP (Table 4.1).Mumbai is known as the financial
capital of the country. The corridor is also important as it links a significant economic region in the country
covering two major cities in Gujarat: Vadodara and Surat. Additionally, around11 small and medium cities
dot the length of the corridor, and there is high intercity traffic along it. In 2011, 4.3 million passengers
had travelled between Ahmedabad and Mumbai, mainly for business, education and social trips.
Table 4.1: Population, GDP and Travel Demand between Ahmedabad and Mumbai
Population (in Travel Demand (million

GDP per capita*
millions) passengers/year)
2011 2005 2010 2005 2010

Ahmedabad 6.4 45196 62635 3.2 4.3
Mumbai 19.7 47761 65637 2.7 4.1
*State GDP
The population of Ahmedabad is expected to increase from 7.1 million in 2015 to 10.5 million by 2030.
During the same period, the population of Mumbai is expected to increase to 27.8 million from the current
20.7 million (UN, 2014).
With major infrastructural projects like the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial corridor and the western dedicated
freight corridor already planned on the stretch, the region is expected to see an increase in economic
activities. It is evident that there will be a substantial increase in travel demand. In absence of high speed
rail, the transport demand will be catered mainly by air and road-based modes. Additional traffic volumes
will add to the congestion on existing routes, necessitating upgradation of air and road infrastructure to
accommodate the rising demand.

4.2 Mode share
Ahmedabad and Mumbai are well connected by air, road and rail. Mode preference for intercity travel
depends on several factors, such as accessibility, travel time, service quality and cost. Various transport
modes compete to service intercity travel demand segments. In the case of shorter distances, the
competition is based on access and cost of service. The competing travel modes are owned or hired
personal vehicles, buses and slower trains. In the case of longer distances, the competition is bifurcated
by the cost or quality of the service in terms of comfort and value of time. The competing modes with rail
at present are luxury buses operating at average speeds of 50 to 70 kmph, premier trains with average
speeds in the range of 80 to 120 kmph, or air travel. For shorter distances within the corridor, private cars
are preferred.
Over two-dozen trains and a dozen flights operate between Ahmedabad and Mumbai daily. National
Highway 8 connects the two cities. State transport and private bus operators provide bus services; nearly
two-dozen private companies operate bus services with fares ranging between Rs. 460 to 1,010 for a
one-way trip. In terms of mode share, rail occupies the largest share followed by air and road. The share
of rail and air in the overall travel demand between the two cities has increased steadily between 2004
and 2010. In 2010, 3.5 million passengers travelled by rail between the two cities.
4.3 Travel time

The travel time by train between Ahmedabad and Mumbai ranges from 7 to 12 hours (Table 4.2). There are
plans to increase the speed of some existing trains from 110 kmph to 130 kmph, which would reduce the
travel time to 6 hours. This travel time is expected to reduce to less than 2 hours after the commencement
of high speed rail service. A dozen airlines also operate daily between the two cities with a travel time of
approximately 1 hour 15 minutes. Currently, rail has less access and egress time, as the railway station
is located close to the city centre and connects with other means of transport, whereas the airport is
located outside the city, 12 km away from the city centre. However, this advantage is offset with the
speed advantage of air travel. In order to gain a competitive advantage over short and medium-haul
flights, railways need to increase travelling speeds.
Table 4.2: Comparison of travel time, cost and CO2 emissions for intercity modes
between Ahmedabad and Mumbai
Mode Travel time(hrs) Cost for one-way trip* Modal share in 2008
Air 1-1.15 Rs. 3391-6103 22%
Rail 7-12 Rs. 5002000 71%
Bus 12-14 Rs. 460-1010 5%
Car 79 Rs. 1400-1800 2%
* Approximate

Figure 4.1: Proposed Ahmedabad-Mumbai High Speed Rail Corridor
Figure 4.1: Proposed Ahmedabad-Mumbai High Speed Rail Corridor
4.3. Travel time
The travel time by train between Ahmedabad and Mumbai ranges from 7 to 12 hours (Table 4.2).
There are plans to increase the speed of some existing trainsand
Scenarios from 110 for
Roadmap kmph to 130
Intercity kmph,
Transport which
in India 29
39
4.4 Alternative scenarios for Ahmedabad-Mumbai
Intercity travel demand for passenger transport is estimated based on methodology given in Dhar and
Shukla (2015), by first estimating the overall travel demand and then deducting demand for urban
transportation. Indias overall intercity passenger travel demand is expected to grow by 3.4% between
2010 and 2050. Ahmedabad-Mumbai links important economic centres in western India, therefore,
growth in population and economic activity along the corridor will generate a high demand for passenger
travel between the two cities. In 2050, the travel demand is projected to reach 58.2 billion pkms
anincreaseoffour and half timesrelative to 2010 levels.
The modal breakdown for intercity travel for 2010 is established by using data for rail (Indian Railways)
and air (Airports Authority of India). In the case of road transport, the data for bus travel was obtained
from GoI (2010) and the residual was apportioned for cars. In 2010, the modal shares for road, rail and
air were49%, 43% and 8%, respectively. The future modal share for the No HSR scenario mimics the
BAU scenario of Dhar and Shukla (2015) in terms of growth rates for road and air transport, with road
transport accounting as the residual. In the HSR scenario, the overall demand is considered similar to
the No HSR scenario. The HSR capacity is based on a bottom up estimation of availability of capacity
over a period of time. The shift to HSR is considered to be predominantly from air and conventional rail.
Two alternative scenarios have been conceptualized, and intermodal competition is assessed in the two
scenarios No HSR Scenario and HSR Scenario. The travel demand in both scenarios is kept the same.
Scenario 1: No HSR Scenario
In the absence of HSR, passenger travel will continue to operate on the existing modes including road, rail
and air. Despite the improvement in rail capacity, the share of air will increase due to income effects. In
addition, growing ownership of private vehicles will result in a significant number of trips being served by
cars. Road will continue to dominate, especially short trips between intermediate cities along the corridor.
Scenario 2: HSR Scenario
In line with the proposed plans, the HSR scenario assumes the commissioning of HSR along the
Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor in 2020. Construction and operation is assumed in a phase-wise manner. In
addition to the four major cities (Ahmedabad, Vadodara, Surat, Mumbai), approximately nine cities along
the corridor with populations ranging from 50,000 to 1.2 million will fall in the direct HSR influence zone.
Figure 4.2 shows the projected levels of passenger kilometres under both scenarios. In the future, the
relative shares between different modes of transport are expected to change. The No HSR scenario
assumes additional capacity and an improvement in rail services. As a result, the share of rail increases,
although this is not significant. Better road infrastructure increases convenience for road travel, particularly
for short intercity trips. However, the overall share of road will reduce, as the trips between Ahmedabad
and Mumbai will decrease both by bus and car, mainly due to the higher travel time relative to the other
modes. This decrease will be somewhat offset by an increase in short road trips between intermediate
cities. Income will influence a higher number of trips by air and, as a result, the share of air in total pkms
is assumed to double between 2010 and 2050 in BAU. In the alternate scenario, HSR competes with air,
resulting in a reduced growth rate of the share of air. In the HSR scenario, the share of air in total travel
increases initially, however, post 2020 this slows down. In this scenario, HSR serves one fifth of the total
travel demand in 2050.

Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor in 2020. Construction and operation is assumed in a phase-wise
manner. In addition to the four major cities (Ahmedabad, Vadodara, Surat, Mumbai), approximately
nine cities along the corridor with populations ranging from 50,000 to 1.2 million will fall in the
direct HSR influence zone.
Figure 4.2: Mode Share in Intercity Transport between Ahmedabad and Mumbai
Figure 4.2 shows the projected levels of passenger kilometres under both scenarios. In the future,
Nobetween
the relative shares HSR different modes of transport are HSR Scenario
expected to change. The No HSR
70 70
scenario assumes additional capacity and an improvement in rail services. As a result, the share of
60 60
rail60increases, although this is not significant. Better road infrastructure increases convenience for
50 50
pkms
Billion pkms
pkms
Billion pkms
road travel, particularly for short intercity trips. 40

However, the overall share of road will reduce, as
40
the30
trips between Ahmedabad and Mumbai will 30
decrease both by bus and car, mainly due to the
Billion
Billion
30
higher
20 travel time relative to the other modes. This
20 decrease will be somewhat offset by an increase
in short
10 10
road trips between intermediate cities. Income will influence a higher number of trips by
0
0 as a result, the share of air in total pkms is 0
air and, assumed to double between 2010 and 2050 in
2020 2010 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
BAU. In the alternate
Road scenario,
Rail Air HSR competes with air, resulting in a reduced
Road Rail HSR Air growth rate of the
share of air. In the HSR scenario, the share of air in total travel increases initially, however, post
2020 this slows down. In this scenario, HSR serves one fifth of the total travel demand in 2050.
Figure 4.2: Mode Share in Intercity Transport between Ahmedabad and Mumbai
Figure 4.3: CO2 Emissions for Intercity trips between Ahmedabad and Mumbai
(Million Tonnes)
41
No HSR HSR Scenario
1.5 1.5
1 1
0.5 0.5
0 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Road Air Conventional Rail Road Air Conventional Rail HSR
Figure
The energy 4.3: CO
demand Emissions
and2 CO for
emissions Intercity
were trips
calculated between
for both Ahmedabad
the scenarios and
Figure 4.3 Mumbai
shows their
2
CO2 emissions. The CO2 emissions are 0.2 MT lower in the HSR scenario than the BAU scenario. Since
(Million Tonnes)
CO2 emissions depend on the carbon content of electricity, further emission reductions are possible if
electricity is decarbonized.
Summary
The energy demand and CO2 emissions were calculated for both the scenarios --Figure 4.3 shows
their
The CO2 emissions. The
Ahmedabad-Mumbai CO2 emissions
corridor areoverall
reflects the 0.2 MT lower in the
urbanization HSR
trend in scenario than
India, which the BAU
currently scenario.
shows
a higher concentration of cities with a million plus population forming large city regions. It has been
Since CO2 emissions depend on the carbon content of electricity, further emission reductions are
argued that support to potentially successful small and medium-sized urban settlements can generate
possible if for
employment electricity is decarbonized.
the growing labour force and lead to economic growth and development (Kundu, 2011).
The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor shows that HSR will increase the capacity of rail along the corridor
and facilitate a modal shift away from air and road to rail. HSR network on the corridor will help improve
Summary

The Role of High Speed Rail 42
the connectivity and attractiveness of Surat and Vadodara. In addition, between seven to nine smaller
and medium-sized cities are situated in direct catchment of the corridor that will benefit from the project.
Compared to air, which will connect only two cities, Ahmedabad and Mumbai, HSR will deliver a more
balanced urban growth, leading to overall regional economic development.
HSR offers significant time savings, compared to road and conventional rail. The modal change away from
air and road will also shift the demand away from oil an important consideration for national energy
security. Since all other modes, including air and road transport, will also undergo efficiency improvements
and switch to cleaner fuels, CO2 emission savings are not very significant for HSR unless electricity
is decarbonized. Nevertheless, it is emphasized that given the multiple benefits generated, impacts
of the Ahmedabad-Mumbai project should be viewed for its larger sustainability benefits beyond CO2
emission savings.

Photo credit: Pierre H.
5. Conclusions and Roadmap
Growing intercity demand has conventionally been met by rail, road and air. Trains presently hold a sizable
but declining share. Over the next couple of decades, India is expected to be the most populous and the
third largest economy (in terms of purchasing power parity) in the world. There are already many transport
corridors in the country with huge, and growing, passenger transport demand. The introduction of a high-
speed train can play a significant role in retaining or regaining the future share of rail transport. Given the
large demand for intercity transport, the presence of several high-density corridors and increasing future
incomes, HSR makes a strong case in Indias intercity transport transition. The growing interest in HSR
in India is reflected in the recent policies and budget announcements of the Government of India. The
analyses in Sections 3 and 4 highlight the benefits HSR can bring in terms of regional development, and
other benefits including improved access and time savings.
Rising incomes are expected to propel a higher share of air travel over the next several decades. Increasing
car ownership and improving road infrastructure is making road travel quicker and more convenient for
medium distance (100 to 300 km) intercity trips. Consequently, under a BAU future, the shift away
from rail to air in long distances and to road in cases of medium distances is expected to endure. These
trends are adverse for GHG emissions and national energy security since rails energy and emissions
performance is superior to air and road transport. The report shows that HSR is an option to overcome
this adverse trend.
In developing countries like India, high-speed rails are a solution for improving connectivity between large
urban centres, fostering regional economic development by connecting tier 2 cities along the corridors,
improving access to jobs, and social benefits through improved access and reduced travel time. Keeping
this in view, the Government of India has identified HSR as an eminent option towards modernizing
the national transport system. The recent budget approved the Mumbai-Ahmedabad line and future
expansion of the rail quadrilateral connecting the four major cities of India. This report provides a long-
term assessment of the role of HSR in intercity passenger transport in India. By relying on long-term
modelling going to 2050, there is an attempt to shed light on issues beyond the current debate. Looking
forward, the evolution of railways, and within this the HSR, will deliver the national benefits of inclusive
and balanced regional development, sustainable mobility and CO2 mitigation. The following steps highlight
some important considerations in the process.
Inclusive and balanced regional development

Development of medium and small cities is essential to promoting a more balanced development. Railway
infrastructure facilitates economic development along the small and medium-sized cities that fall within
the influence zone. Corridors may be identified and prioritized using appropriate regional transport
forecast studies, in order to deliver the highest benefits to the small and medium towns.
Sub-national regions in India are at different levels of development. Therefore, some corridors may not
generate profit and may have low demand initially. However, rail corridors along these remote cities
can be planned for social and development benefits. For India, it is important that HSR benefits accrue

to the larger population and, therefore, integrating equity will require a comprehensive assessment to
understand the social needs of certain sections of the population, affordability of HSR, and mode choices
of various groups based on age, gender, jobs and income levels (Kim and Sultana, 2015).Other important
considerations include addressing land acquisition issues in a fair manner and minimizing environmental
impacts.
Financing
HSR is capital intensive, and financing it entirely through public finances cannot be justified since
railways face other challenges such as operational improvements for safety, modernizing existing lines
and improving services in railways. National governments must, therefore, look at innovative funding that
enables private sector participation through market friendly policies. State and local government support
would also be needed for building complimentary infrastructure. While upfront investments of developing
high speed rail corridors are high, the sustainability benefits are diffused and occur over a longer time
frame. Therefore, financial instruments with long-term maturity would be required, and investments for
HSR would have to be viewed comprehensively for the long-term development benefits they generate.
Segmentation of Rail Corridors

The development of HSR in India is still at a very primary stage of initial corridor identification. HSR
service would be limited to major corridors since they are capital intensive and require minimum demand.
A large number of rail lines in the country will also require modernization. Given the diversity of economic
development within the country, among states and cities within states, corridors can be identified and
planned at the early stage for operating high speed (>300 kmph), medium speed (150-300 kmph), and
below 150kmph.
Integration with Other modes

Intercity transport planning cannot be implemented in piecemeal manner for individual modes (air, road
and rail). An integrated national intercity plan looking at all modes comprehensively will help understand
demand and ridership for these modes and help prioritize investments. Regional rail and bus services can
act as feeder systems for HSR to increase the catchment of the HSR infrastructure and benefit a large
regional population. High Speed Rail can complement air modes, especially at hub airports (Alabate and
Bel, 2015). Planning HSR infrastructure and managing time schedules strategically can facilitate better
connectivity to international airports.
Domestic Manufacturing
Railway modernization and HSR, in particular, are technology and capital intensive. The domestic
manufacturing of rail and its components can promote innovation, opportunities for technology transfer
and demand for industry in particular, steel industry from manufacture of wagons and allied infrastructure.
National industry policies can highlight this and make efforts to build domestic manufacturing capabilities.
Align with National Policies and Plans

High speed rail is energy intensive; however, it can change the energy mix from oil to electricity, resulting
in energy security benefits. Regional rail corridors, therefore, should form an important component of
the national mobility plans and help meet national energy security goals. Significant benefits can be

realized if these policies are integrated with national energy and climate policies (Chaturvedi and Kim,
2015; Cleclow, 2012). Since all other modes, including air and road transport, will also undergo efficiency
improvements and fuel switch, HSR benefits should be viewed beyond CO2 emission savings. The report
makes a strong case for increasing the attractiveness of railways in order to leverage the multiple benefits
it is expected to deliver for intercity transport in India.

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Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 39(4), 367381. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2004.12.003
World Bank (2014). High Speed Railways in China: A look at Construction Costs. China Transport Topics
No. 9. World Bank.
Zheng, S., & Kahn, M. E. (2013). Chinas bullet trains facilitate market integration and mitigate the cost
of megacity growth. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 110(14), E1248-1253. doi:10.1073/pnas.1209247110

Annexure
Annexure 1
Figure11a.a:Growth
Figure Growth in Passenger
in Passenger andand Freight
Freight Transport
Transport demand
demand with
with GDP
GDP
Figure 1 b. Trends in modal share of intercity passenger travel demand between 1980 and
Figure 1 b: Trends in modal share of intercity passenger travel demand between
2010
1980 and 2010

Information about the project:
UNEP Transport Unit in Kenya, UNEP DTU Partnership

in Denmark and partners in India have embarked on
a new initiative to support a low-carbon transport
pathway in India. The three-year EUR 2.49 million
project is funded under the International Climate
Initiative of the German Government, and is designed
in line with Indias National Action Plan on Climate
Change (NAPCC). This project aims to address
transportation growth, development agenda and
climate change issues in an integrated manner by
catalyzing the development of a Transport Action Plan
at the national level and Low-Carbon Mobility plans at
the cities level.
Key local partners include the Indian Institute of

Management, Ahmedabad, the Indian Institute of
Technology, Delhi and CEPT University, Ahmedabad.
The cooperation between the Government of India,
Indian institutions, UNEP, and the Government of
Germany will assist in the development of a low-carbon
transport system and showcase best practices within
India, and for other developing countries.
Homepage : www.unep.org/transport/lowcarbon
FOR MORE INFORMATION, CONTACT:
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
Division of Technology, Industry and Economics (DTIE)
Transport Unit
P.O Box 30552
Nairobi, Kenya
Tel : +254 20 762 4184
Email : lowcarbon@unep.org
www.unep.org/transport/lowcarbon

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PROMOTING LOW CARBON TRANSPORT IN INDIA

Scenarios and Roadmap for Intercity Transport in India:

The Role of High Speed Rail

Scenarios and Roadmap for Intercity Transport in India:

Design and production:

List of Tables and Figures v

2. High Speed Rail 5

3. The Case for HSR in India 17

4. Ahmedabad-Mumbai HSR Corridor 27

5. Conclusions and Roadmap 35

Table 2.2: Construction cost of HSR in different countries 14

Table 3.1: Share of railways in BAU and HSR Scenario 22

Figure 2.2: Share by country in Cumulative HSR length 7

Figure 2.3: Existing and Proposed HSR lines (2015) 7

Figure 2.5: Share of high-speed rail in passenger transport in different countries 9

Figure 3.1: Potential HSR lines in India 19

Figure 3.2: Mode share in BAU and HSR Scenario 23

Figure 3.3: Energy Demand by Fuel in BAU 23

Figure 3.4: Energy Demand by Mode 24

Figure 3.5: CO2 Emissions from passenger transport 24

Figure 4.1: Proposed Ahmedabad-Mumbai High Speed Rail Corridor 29

CO2 Carbon dioxide

CO2e Carbon dioxide equivalent

GoI Government of India

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GHG Greenhouse gases

HSR High Speed Rail

HSRC High Speed Rail Corporation of India Limited

JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency

Kmph Kilometres per hour

LCS Low-Carbon Scenario

LCT Low-Carbon Transport

NAPCC National Action Plan for Climate Change

MoEF Ministry of Environment and Forests

MoEF & CC Ministry of Environment and Forests and Climate Change

Pkms Passenger kilometres

UNEP United Nations Environment Programme

Key findings and recommendations

Figure 1: CO2 Emissions from passenger transport

The The introduction

1.2 Intercity Transport: The Context

Promoting low carbon transport in India

Promoting low carbon transport in India

2.2 Global Experience

1 http://ec.europa.eu/transport/themes/infrastructure/studies/doc/2010_high_speed_rail_en.pdf Accessed March 1, 2014. The

Promoting low carbon transport in India

Figure 2.1: Length of HSR network in Selected Countries (km)

Source: NBSC (2014); MLIT (2014); EU (2014)

Promoting low carbon transport in India

Source: UIC (2015)

Figure 2.2 Share by country in Cumulative HSR length

In operation Under construction Planned

Source: UIC (2015)

Figure 2.5: Share of high-speed rail in passenger transport in different countries

Source: MLIT (2014), EU (2014), NBSC (2014)

2.4 Benefits of HSR

3 http://www.c2es.org/technology/factsheet/Aviation, Accessed April 18, 2015.

Promoting low carbon transport in India

Dimensions Impacts References

Better accessibility to health and education (Gines de Rus &

Less pollutant emissions compared to air(Chester &

4 http://www.ushsr.com/benefits/economic.html Accessed April 18, 2015.

Promoting low carbon transport in India

Box 1: High Speed Rail in California