Thursday, July 29, 2010

KBC Technicals Commonwealth & Eurchf

From KBC Market Research Desk - More research on www.kbc.be/dealingroom

AUD:(.9018) Above channel top off year high (see graph)

FOREX AUD=,22 (0.9016, 0.9021, 0.9014, 0.9014, -0.0003)

0.910
.9069
HOURLY CHARTS
0.905
0.900
0.895
0.890
.8860 .8871
0.885
0.880
0.875
0.870
0.865
.8633 0.860
0.855
0.850
0.845
0.840
0.835

.8315 0.830
0.825
0.820
0.815
0.810
.8083 0.805
0.800
3 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010 July

Strong rebound off .8633 puts the pair above the channel top off year high (see graph) and currently back above
daily Downtrendline off 2009 high (.8980 today).
Support at .8964 (break-up hourly), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at .8908/ .8895 (today’s + current week low/ reaction lows hourly + modified daily Alpha Beta
trend bottom): tough on 1st attempts.
Resistance area at .9034 (breakdown hourly), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at .9069/ .9076 (current week high/ 76.4% year high to .8066 + modified weekly Standard
Error Band top), ahead of .9090 (76.4% 2009 high to .8066) and .9130/ .9137 (modified daily Alpha Beta trend
top/ daily Bollinger top): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

.8964 (see above) .9034 (see above)

.8908/ .8895 (current week low/ reaction lows hourly + .9069/ .9076 (current week high/ 76.4% year high to
see above) .8066 + see above)
.8872/ .8855 (daily MT MA↑/ break-up hourly) .9090/ .9137 (see above/ daily Bollinger top)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research
 Thursday, July 29, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Commonwealth FX

CAD: (1.0313)

FOREX CAD=,22 (1.0319, 1.0320, 1.0309, 1.0311, -0.0005)

1.0680
1.0678

1.065

1.060

1.055

1.050

1.045

1.040

1.035

1.030

1.0276 1.025
1.0256

1.020

1.015

1.0138
1.010

3 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010 July

Drop from 1.0678 puts the pair below the redrawn daily Uptrendline off year low (1.0400 today) and tested
1.0276 (see graph).
1st Support area at 1.0290 (break-up hourly), with next levels at 1.0261/ .0256 (medium term break-up daily/
current week low) and 1.0246 (modified daily Alpha Beta trend bottom), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 1.0218/ .0213 (daily Bollinger bottom/ weekly envelope bottom): tough on 1st attempts.

1st Resistance area at 1.0366 (breakdown hourly), with next levels at 1.0396/ .0403 (current week high + daily
daily Medium Term Moving Average↓/ daily Long Term Moving Average→), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 1.0427/ .0429 (reaction high hourly + daily envelope top/ modified daily Alpha Beta
trend top + daily Bollinger midline): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

1.0311/ .0290 (daily envelope bottom/ see above) 1.0366 (see above)

1.0256/ .0246 (current week low/ see above) 1.0396/ .0403 (current week high + see above/ see above)

1.0218/ .0213 (daily Bollinger bottom/ weekly enve- 1.0427/ .0429 (see above + daily envelope top/ daily Bollin-
lope bottom) ger midline + see above)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 2
 Thursday, July 29, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Commonwealth FX

GBP: (1.5641) New recovery high on move back above Flag off year low (see graph)
FOREX GBP=,22 (1.5639, 1.5643, 1.5615, 1.5629, -0.0010)
1.570
1.565
1.560
1.555
1.550
1.5473
1.545
1.540
1.535
1.530
1.525
1.5230 1.520
1.515
1.5125 1.510
1.505
1.500
1.495
1.4949 1.490
1.485
1.480
1.475
1.470
1.4688 1.465
1.460
1.455
1.450
1.445
1.440
1.435
1.4346 1.430
1.425
3 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010 July

New recovery high on move back above the Flag off year low (see graph: equivalent on daily charts has its
broken top at 1.5250 today) and testing daily Bollinger top (1.5640): Support at 1.5581 (reaction low hourly),
with next levels at 1.5557/ .5548 (daily envelope bottom/ daily Short Term Moving Average↑) and 1.5524/
.5506 (neckline daily Double Bottom/ reaction low hourly), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 1.5469 (modified daily Alpha Beta trend bottom) and 1.5441/ .5434 (reaction lows
hourly): tough on 1st attempts.

Resistance area at 1.5653/ .5659 (today’s + current new recovery high off year low?/ daily channel top off June
low) and 1.5680/ .5691 (potential of Flag break: see chart/ potential of daily Flag break off year low), where
pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 1.5700 (daily envelope top), ahead of 1.5754 (modified daily Alpha Beta trend top): tough
on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

1.5581 (see above) 1.5653/ .5659 (see above)

1.5557/ .5548 (daily envelope bottom/ daily ST

1.5691/.5700 (see above/ daily envelope top)
MA↑)

1.5524/ .5506 (see above/ reaction low hourly) 1.5754/ .5787 (see above/ daily Starc top)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 3
 Thursday, July 29, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Commonwealth FX

EUR/CHF: (1.3745) New recovery high on move back in Flag off low (see graph)

FOREX EURCHF=EBS (1.3754, 1.3754, 1.3742, 1.3745, -0.0009)

1.425
1.420
1.415
1.410
1.4041 1.405
1.400
1.395
1.390
1.385
1.3819
1.380
1.375
1.3735 1.3677 1.370
1.365
1.360
1.355
1.350
1.3434
1.345
1.340
1.335
1.330
1.325
1.320
1.315
1.310
1.3073 1.305
1.300

1 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010 July

Currently back in long term daily channel off 2007 high (bottom at 1.3733 today) and has met 2nd target
off 1.3434 (see graph) at 1.3795.

Resistance area at 1.3762 (reaction high hourly), with next levels at 1.3780/ .3792 (breakdown hourly/ daily
Bollinger top), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 1.3819 (current recovery high off low), ahead of 1.3831/ .3837 (50% May high to
1.3073/ daily envelope top) and 1.3863/ .3869 (medium term breakdown daily/ modified daily Alpha Beta trend
top): tough on 1st attempts.

Support area at 1.3695/ .3690 (daily envelope bottom + break-up hourly/ daily Short Term Moving Average↑),
where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 1.3652 (break-up hourly), ahead of 1.3632/ .3623 (break-up daily/ modified daily Alpha
Beta trend bottom): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE
1.3695/ .3690 (daily envelope bottom + see above/ daily
1.3762 (see above)
ST MA↑)

1.3652 (break-up hourly) 1.3780/ .3792 (see above/ daily Bollinger top)

1.3632/ .3623 (break-up daily/ see above) 1.3819/ .3831 (see above/50% May high to 1.3073)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 4
 Thursday, July 29, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Commonwealth FX

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held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a
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accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice.

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 5