Friday, July 30, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Forex

From KBC Market Research Desk - More research on www.kbc.be/dealingroom

SUMMER BREAK: NEXT REPORT SHOULD BE ON AUG 24

EUR/USD: (1.3069) New recovery high on move above channel top off year low

FOREX EUR=EBS,39 (1.3064, 1.3069, 1.3064, 1.3068, +0.0004)

1.3107 1.315
HOURLY CHARTS 1.310
1.305
1.300
1.295
1.290
1.285
1.280
1.275
1.2723 1.2732 1.270
1.265
1.260
1.255
1.250
1.245
1.240
1.235
1.230
1.225
1.220
1.215
1.210
1.205
1.200
1.195
1.190
1.1876 1.185
1.180

3 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010 July
New recovery high on move above channel off 1.1876 (see graph).
Support area at 1.3046 (current reaction low off 1.3107), with next levels at 1.3032/ .3026 (daily envelope bot-
tom/ daily Short Term Moving Average↑), ahead of 1.2996/.2976 (break-up hourly/ modified daily alpha Beta
trend bottom).
1.2930 = daily Medium Term Moving Average↑: ideal area to stay above to keep current short term mood intact
on €.
Resistance at 1.3107 (current recovery high off year low), ahead of 1.3114/ .3124 (medium term breakdown on
weekly charts/ 38.2% 2009 high to 1.1876), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 1.3144/ .3157 (Irregular C wave off 1.2151+ modified daily Alpha Beta trend top / daily
envelope top + daily Bollinger top): tough on 1st tests, amid overextended readings.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE
1.3046/ .3026 (see above/ daily ST MA↑) 1.3107/ .3114 (current recovery high/ see above)
1.3124/ .3144 (see above/ Irregular C wave + see
1.2996/ .2986 (break-up hourly/ see above)
above)
1.3157/ .3226 (daily envelope top + daily Bollinger
1.2977/ .2930 (reaction low hourly/ daily MT MA↑)
top/ 50% year high to 1.1876)
KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research
 Friday, July 30, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Forex

USD/JPY: (86.36) New year low being scored but currently back in channel off 94.99 (see
graph)
FOREX JPY=EBS,39 (86.38, 86.40, 86.33, 86.36, -0.02)
92.89
93.0

92.5

92.0

91.5

91.0

90.5

90.0

89.5
89.15

89.0

88.5

88.0
88.11
87.5

87.0
86.96
86.5
86.27
86.0

3 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010 July

New year low being scored on move below daily Uptrendline off 2009 low (90.65 today) but currently back in
channel off 94.99 (see graph).
Resistance at 86.99 (reaction high hourly), with next levels at 87.19 (daily Medium Term Moving Average↓),
ahead of 87.53/ 87.65 (daily envelope top + daily Bollinger midline/ modified daily Alpha Beta trend top), where
pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 88.12/ 88.22 (current week high + modified daily Standard Error band top), ahead of
88.29 (reaction high hourly) and 88.37/ 88.45 (weekly envelope top/ daily Downtrendline off 94.99): tough on 1st
attempts.

1st support area at 86.26/ 96.15 (today’s + new year low?/ daily Bollinger bottom), ahead of 86.06/ 85.99
(monthly envelope bottom + modified daily Alpha Beta trend bottom/ weekly Bollinger bottom), where pause fa-
vored.
If wrong, next levels at 85.37/ 85.23 (daily Starc bottom/ broken weekly channel top off Aug 2008 high): tough on
1st attempts (last area before 84.82: 2009 low).

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

86.25/ .15 (see above/ daily Bollinger bottom) 86.99 (/ see above)
86.06/85.99 (monthly envelope bottom/ weekly Bollinger
87.19 (daily MT MA↓)
bottom)
87.53/ 65 (daily envelope top + daily Bollinger mid-
85.37/ 8.5.23 (daily Starc bottom/ see above)
line/ see above)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 2
 Friday, July 30, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Forex

EUR/GBP: (.8365) Rebound off new year low tested channel top off .8810 (see graph)
FOREX EURGBP=,22 (0.8364, 0.8370, 0.8360, 0.8363, -0.0003)
.8532

0.850

0.845
.8416

.8382 0.840

0.835

.8317 0.830
.8313

0.825

.8210 0.820

0.815

0.810

.8067 0.805

4 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010 July

Rebound off new year low broke daily channel off .9130 (broken top at .8266 today).

1st Support area at .8358/ 83.49 (daily Short Term Moving Average↑ + reaction low hourly/ idem), with next lev-
els at .8329/ .8325 (daily Long Term Moving Average↑ / daily envelope bottom) and 8313 (current week low +
modified daily Standard Error band bottom + see graph: neckline short term Head & Shoulders top), where
pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at .8301/ .8299 (weekly envelope bottom/ 50% .8067 to .8532), ahead of .8278/ .8266 (daily
Bollinger bottom/ see above): tough on 1st attempts.
1st Resistance area at .8379 (daily Bollinger midline), ahead of .8393/ .8400 (daily Medium Term Moving Aver-
age↓/ daily envelope top) and .8412/ .8416 (weekly Medium Term Moving Average↓/ current week high + modi-
fied daily Alpha Beta trend top), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at .8444 (reaction high hourly), ahead of .8466 (idem) and .8477/ .8492 (daily Bollinger top/
weekly envelope top): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

.8358. .8349 (daily ST MA↑ + see above/ see above) .8379 (daily Bollinger midline)

.8329/ .8325 (daily LT MA↑/ daily envelope bottom) .8393/ .8400 (daily MT MA↓/ daily envelope top)

.8313/ .8299 (current week low/ 50% .8067 to .8532) .8416/ .8444 (current week high + see above/ see above)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 3
 Friday, July 30, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Forex

EUR/JPY: (112.96) Currently back below 113.43 area (see graph)
FOREX EURJPY=EBS (112.86, 113.02, 112.80, 112.97, +0.13)
115.0
114.74
114.5

114.0

113.43
113.5

113.0

112.5

112.0

111.5

110.90 111.0

110.5

110.0

109.5

109.0

108.5

108.0

108.06 107.5

107.30 107.0

2 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010 July

Pair currently back below 113.43 (see graph: June 21 high + neckline daily Double bottom) and retested 114.40
(May 21 high): Resistance at 113.26 (breakdown hourly), with next levels at 113.86 (reaction high hourly), ahead
of 114.44/ .59 (daily Bollinger top/ daily envelope top + modified daily Alpha Beta trend top) and 114.74/ .84 (cur-
rent recovery high off year low/ 23.6% 139.26 to 107.30), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 114.95 (weekly envelope top) and 115.18/ .22 (38.2% 127.95 to 107.30/ modified daily
Standard Error band top): tough on 1st attempts

1st Support area at 113.75/ .64 (daily Medium Term Moving Average↑/ today’s low?), ahead of 112.38/ .21 (modified

daily Alpha Beta trend bottom/ current week low), where pause favored.

If wrong, next levels at 111.65/ .60 (daily Long Term Moving Average↑/ reaction low hourly): tough on 1st tests.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

112.75/ .64 (daily MT MA↑/ see above) 113.26/ .86 (see above/ reaction high hourly)
114.44/ .59 (daily Bollinger top/ see above + daily en-
112.38/ .21 (see above/ current week low)
velope top)

111.65/ .60 (daily LT MA↑/ see above) 114.74/ .84 (see above/ 23.6% 139.26 to 107.30)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 4
 Friday, July 30, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Forex

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KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 5