Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Coordonator: Masterand:
Arad
2017
Cash flow-ul (fluxul de numerar)
Cash flow-ul negativ apare atunci cnd firma cheltuiete mai mult dect produce sau
cnd n momentul analizat plile sunt mai mari dect intrrile de numerar, rezultnd o
pierdere.
Cash flow-ul pozitiv este invers cash flow-ului negativ apare atunci cnd ncasrile
de numerar sunt superioare plilor efectuate de ctre firm, rezultnd un profit.
Jensen si Stulz ne spun ca exist dou interpretri pentru aceast relaie pozitiv. n
6
primul rnd, relaia pozitiv este o manifestare a unei probleme de agenie, n care managerii
1
https://dexonline.ro/
2
Riebold, G. "Le Cash-Flow," Dimension Nouvelle du Control Gestion, Les Editions d' Organisation, Paris.
Traducci6n al castellano: ICE. Madrid, 1969.
3
Rivero Torte, P. Cash-flow, Estado de Origen y Aplicacidn de Fondos Control de Gestion, Ciencias de la
Direcci6n, Madrid, 1989
4
Modigliani, F., & Miller, M. (1958). The cost of capital, corporation finance and the theory of investment.
American Economic Review ,48, 261297.
5
Hubbard, R. G. (1998). Capital-market imperfections and investment. Journal of Economic Literature ,36,
193225.
2
din firmele cu flux de numerar liber se angajeaz s cheltuiasc risipitor7. Atunci cnd
obiectivele managerilor difer de cele ale acionarilor, prezena fluxului de numerar generat
intern, care depete nivelul necesar pentru a menine activele existente n vigoare i pentru
a finana noi proiecte pozitive, creeaz posibilitatea ca aceste fonduri s fie risipite.
6
Jensen, M. C. (1986). Agency costs and free cash flow, corporate finance and takeovers. American Economic
Review ,76, 659665.
7
Stulz, R. M. (1990). Managerial discretion and optimal financing policies.
Journal of Financial Economics , 26 , 327.
8
Hubbard, R. G. (1998). Capital-market imperfections and investment.Journal of Economic Literature,36, 193
225.
9
Fazzari, S. M., Hubbard, R. G., & Petersen, B. C. (1988). Financing constraints on corporate
investment.Brookings Papers on Economic Activity , 141195.
10
Lang, L. H. P., Stulz, R. M., & Walkling, R. A. (1991). A test of the free cash flow hypothesis: The
case of bidder returns. Journal of Financial Economics ,29, 315335
11
Harford, J. (1999). Corporate cash reserves and acquisitions.Journal of Finance,54, 19691997
12
Fairfield, P. M., Whisenant, J. S., & Yohn, T. L. (2003). Accrued earnings and growth: Implications for future
profitability and market mispricing. Accounting Review ,78 , 353371
13
Givoly D, Hayn C, Lehavy R (2009) The quality of analysts cash flow forecasts. Account Rev
84(6):18771911
14
McInnis J, Collins D (2011) The effect of cash flow forecasts on accrual quality and benchmark beating.J
Account Econ 51(3):219239
15
Call A, Chen S, Tong Y (2009) Are analysts earnings forecasts more accurate when accompanied by cash
flow forecasts? Rev Account Stud 14(23):358391
16
Hung, M. (2000). Accounting standards and value relevance of earnings: An international analysis. Journal of
Accounting and Economics, 30 , 401420.
3
informativ dac ctigurile sunt puin msurate, iar compararea fluxului de numerar cu
ctigurile reprezint un diagnostic standard n analiza calitii ctigurilor salariale.17
Tobin (1956)20 a atras atenia asupra alegerii agenilor economici n meninerea unei
proporii ntre obligaiunile monetare i cele de trezorerie, alte forme de avere nu sunt luate n
considerare.Studiile de gestionare a numerarului sunt justificate de creterea eficienei i de
contribuia lor n diferite domenii de finanare. Connor si Leland (1995)21 si Buckleyand
Korn (1998)22 au aplicat cadrul de gestionare a numerarului pentru selectarea portofoliului,
menit s urmreasc rentabilitatea unui indice de capital.
O teorie alternativ i cea investigat n acest articol este ipoteza fluxului de numerar
liber (suprainvestiie) al lui Jensen (1986, 1989).23 Jensen subliniaz faptul c o firm care
acumuleaz fluxul de numerar liber poate fie s-i creasc dividendele n numerar, s
rscumpere o parte din aciunile sale, fie s investeasc n plus. El susine c firmele care au
un flux de numerar liber substanial tind s suprainveste i s realizeze proiecte cu valori nete
negative actuale.
Mai mult, atunci cnd o firm care dispune de un flux de numerar liber i crete
dividendele n numerar, se ateapt o cretere a valorii sale, deoarece se iau acum mai puine
proiecte negative negative. Desigur, argumentul lui Jensen presupune c managerii nu
maximizeaz valoarea firmelor. Dac se poate crea o schem de compensare care s
garanteze c valoarea va fi maximizat, fluxul de numerar liber nu va exista.
17
Dechow, P., & Dichev, I. (2002). The quality of accruals and earnings: The role of accrual estimation
Errors.The Accounting Review,77 (Supplement), 3559.
18
Muller, Dennis C. (1969) 'A Theory of Conglomerate Mergers', Quarterly Journal of Economics 83, 643-659.
Muller, Dennis C. (1972) 'A Life Cycle Theory of the Firm', Journal oflndustriaI Economics 20, 199-219.
19
Grabowski, Henry G. and Mueller, Dennis C. (1972) 'Managerial and Stockholder Welfare Models of Firm
Expenditures', Review of Economics and Statistics 54, 9-24.
20
Tobin J (1956) The interest-elasticity of transactions demand for cash. Rev Econ Stat 38:241 247
21
Connor G, Leland H (1995) Cash management for index tracking. Financ Analysts J 51:75 80
22
Buckley IRC, Korn R (1998) Optimal index tracking under transaction costs and impulse control. Int J
Theor Appl Finance 1:315-330
23
Jensen, M., "Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance and Takeover." American Economic
Review 76, 323-329, ay 1986).
Jensen, M., "Eclipse of the Public Corporation." Harvard Business Rev/ew 5, 61-74, (September-October 1989).
4
Ipoteza fluxului de numerar liber (suprainvestiie) a fost investigat de Lang i
Litzenberger (1989)24 i recent de Howe, He i Kao (1992)25. Folosind Q-ul lui Tobin ca
msur a intensitii suprainvestiiei, Lang i Litzenberger gsesc dovezi care susin teoria
fluxului de numerar liber n legtur cu dividendele n numerar. Rezultatele empirice ale
acestora sunt n concordan cu ipoteza c modificrile dividendelor de ctre companiile cu
suprainvestire informeaz acionarii cu privire la politica de investiii a firmei, n loc s
semnaleze informaii pozitive asimetrice cu privire la rentabilitatea viitoare a firmei.
Dac managerii maximizeaz valoarea actual a firmei lor, atunci vor investi pn n
momentul n care rentabilitatea marginal a investiiei este egal cu costul capitalului
companiei, care, la rndul su, este definit ca rentabilitatea pe care acionarii societii o pot
ctiga investind n alte companii De risc comparabil. ntr-o lume neoclasic descris de
Modigliani i Miller (1958), 26costul capitalului unei firme este acelai dac utilizeaz
fluxurile de fonduri interne pentru a finana investiia sau a crete fondurile externe. Nivelul
fluxurilor de numerar ale unei ntreprinderi nu ar trebui s conteze n determinarea nivelului
de investiie al acesteia.
n concluzie exist foarte multe avantaje pentru utilizarea cash flow-ului: putem avea
imaginea financiar a firmei din orice moment; flexibilitatea, deoarece n cash flow putem
include toate informaiile de care avem nevoie din punct de vedere financiar; in urma acestuia
se pot face analize cu privire la intrrile i ieirire de bani din firm i s gsim cauzele pentru
care acestea au fost mai mari sau mai mici dect sumele ateptate.
24
Lang, L.H.P. and R.H. Litzenberger, "Dividend Announcements--Cash Flow Signalling vs. Free Cash Flow
Hypothesis." Journal of Financial Economics 24, 181-191, (September 1989).
25
Howe, Keith M., J. He, and G.W. Kao, "One-time Cash Flow Announcements and Free Cash Flow Theory:
Share Repurchases and Special Dividends." Journal of Finance 47, 1963-1975, (December 1992)
26
Modigliani, F., & Miller, M. (1958). The cost of capital, corporation finance and the theory of investment.
American Economic Review ,48, 261297.
27
Duesenberry, J.S. (1958) Business Cycles and Economic Growth, New York: McGraw-Hill.
28
Myers, S.C. and Majluf, N.S. (1984) 'Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have
Information that Investors Do Not', Journal of Financial Economics 13, 187-221.
5
Bibliografie
1. Connor G, Leland H (1995) Cash management for index tracking. Financ Analysts J
51:75 80
2. Dechow, P., & Dichev, I. (2002). The quality of accruals and earnings: The role of
accrual estimation Errors.The Accounting Review,77 (Supplement), 3559.
3. Duesenberry, J.S. (1958) Business Cycles and Economic Growth, New York:
McGraw-Hill.
4. Duesenberry, J.S. (1958) Business Cycles and Economic Growth, New York:
McGraw-Hill.
5. Fairfield, P. M., Whisenant, J. S., & Yohn, T. L. (2003). Accrued earnings and
growth: Implications for future profitability and market mispricing. Accounting
Review ,78 , 353371
7. Givoly D, Hayn C, Lehavy R (2009) The quality of analysts cash flow forecasts.
Account Rev 84(6):18771911
8. Grabowski, Henry G. and Mueller, Dennis C. (1972) 'Managerial and Stockholder
Welfare Models of Firm Expenditures', Review of Economics and Statistics 54, 9-24.
10. Howe, Keith M., J. He, and G.W. Kao, "One-time Cash Flow Announcements and
Free Cash Flow Theory: Share Repurchases and Special Dividends." Journal of
Finance 47, 1963-1975, (December 1992)
11. https://dexonline.ro/
15. Jensen, M. C. (1986). Agency costs and free cash flow, corporate finance and
takeovers. American Economic Review ,76, 659665.
16. Jensen, M., "Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance and Takeover."
American Economic Review 76, 323-329, ay 1986).
17. Jensen, M., "Eclipse of the Public Corporation." Harvard Business Rev/ew 5, 61-74,
(September-October 1989).
6
18. Lang, L. H. P., Stulz, R. M., & Walkling, R. A. (1991). A test of the free cash flow
hypothesis: The case of bidder returns. Journal of Financial Economics ,29, 315335
20. McInnis J, Collins D (2011) The effect of cash flow forecasts on accrual quality and
benchmark beating. J Account Econ 51(3):219239
21. Modigliani, F., & Miller, M. (1958). The cost of capital, corporation finance and the
theory of investment. American Economic Review ,48, 261297.
22. Muller, Dennis C. (1969) 'A Theory of Conglomerate Mergers', Quarterly Journal of
Economics 83, 643-659.
23. Muller, Dennis C. (1972) 'A Life Cycle Theory of the Firm', Journal oflndustriaI
Economics 20, 199-219.
24. Myers, S.C. and Majluf, N.S. (1984) 'Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions
When Firms Have Information that Investors Do Not', Journal of Financial
Economics 13, 187-221.
25. Riebold, G. "Le Cash-Flow," Dimension Nouvelle du Control Gestion, Les Editions d'
Organisation, Paris. Traducci6n al castellano: ICE. Madrid, 1969.
26. Rivero Torte, P. Cash-flow, Estado de Origen y Aplicacidn de Fondos Control de
Gestion, Ciencias de la Direcci6n, Madrid, 1989
27. Rivero Torte, P. Cash-flow, Estado de Origen y Aplicacidn de Fondos Control de
Gestion, Ciencias de la Direcci6n, Madrid, 1989
28. Stulz, R. M. (1990). Managerial discretion and optimal financing policies. Journal of
Financial Economics , 26 , 327.