Friday, July 30, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Central Europe FX

From KBC Market Research Desk - More research on www.kbc.be/dealingroom

SUMMER BREAK: NEXT REPORT SHOULD BE ON AUG 24

EUR/PLN: (4.0000) Below 4.0405 (see graph)

FOREX EURPLN=D2, (3.9975, 3.9979, 3.9975, 3.9979, -0.0001)

4.2400 4.26
HOURLY CHARTS 4.25
4.24
4.23
4.2060 4.22
4.2050
4.21
4.20
4.1790 4.19
4.18
4.1550 4.17
4.16
4.15
4.14
4.13
4.12
4.11
4.10
4.09
4.08
4.07
4.06
4.05
4.04
4.0405 4.03
4.02
4.01
4.0120 4.00
3.99
3.98
3.97
3.96
3.9400 3.95
3.94
3.93
3.92
3.91
3.90
3.89
3.88
2010 J J
Below 4.0405 (see graph) and 200 Day Moving Average↓ (4.0477 today), with daily Bollinger bottom at
3.9866.
Resistance at 4.0184 ( reaction high hourly + daily envelope top), ahead of 4.0370 (modified daily Alpha
Beta trend top) and 4.0477 (see above), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 4.0582/ .0650 (daily Medium Term Moving Average↓/ current week high): tough
on 1st attempts.
Support at 3.9896 (current week low), with next levels at 3.9866/ .9844 (daily Bollinger bottom/ daily enve-
lope bottom + + long term reaction low hourly), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 3.9739/ .9700 (broken daily Fibonacci Fan Line/ May break-up on daily charts),
ahead of 3.9625/ .9564 (modified daily Standard Error band bottom + daily projection band bottom/ modi-
fied daily Alpha Beta Trend bottom): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

3.9866/ .9844 (daily Bollinger bottom/ daily envelope

4.0184 (daily envelope top + see above)
bottom + see above)
3.9739/ .9700 (see above/ MT break-up daily) 4.0370/ .0477 (see above/ 200 Day MA↓)
3.9625/ .9564 (see above/ modified daily Alpha Beta 4.0582/ .0650 (daily MT MA↓/ current week high)
trend bottom)
KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research
 Friday, July 30, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Central Europe FX

EUR/HUF: (284.35) Drop from recovery high approached Uptrendline (see graph)

FOREX EURHUF=D2, (284.510, 284.510, 284.500, 284.500, -0.250) 294

292.10 293
292
290.55
291
290
289
288
287
286
285
284
283
282
281.50 281
280
279
278
277
276
275
275.50
274
273
272
271.15
271
270
269
268
267
266
265
264
263
262
262.05
261

2010 May June July

Drop from new recovery high approached the redrawn Uptrendline off 262.05 (see graph): Support at 283.25/
292.95 (daily Bollinger midline/ daily Long Term Moving Average↑), with next levels at 281.50/ .23 (current
week low + daily projection band bottom/ daily envelope bottom + redrawn daily Uptrendline off 262.05) ,
ahead of 281.04 (modified daily Alpha Beta trend bottom)) and 280.51/ .19 (break-up daily/ 38.2% 260.93 to
292.10), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 277.70 (break-up hourly + weekly modified Standard Error band bottom) and 276.70/
.51 (July 14 low/ 50% + daily Bollinger bottom): tough on 1st attempts.

Resistance at 285.70 (breakdown hourly), ahead of 286.60 (reaction high hourly), where pause favored.
If wrong, next level at 288.20/ .32 (current week high/ modified daily Alpha Beta trend top) and 288.65 (July 23
high): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

283.25/ 282.95 (daily Bollinger midline/ see above) 285.70 (see above)

281.50/ .23 (current week low + see above/ daily enve-

286.60 (see above)
lope bottom + see above)

281.04/ 280.51 (see above/ break-up daily) 288.32/ 288.65 (see above/ July 23 high)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 2
 Friday, July 30, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Central Europe FX

EUR/RUB: (39.4500) New recovery high off year low

FOREX EURRUB=,22 (39.4740, 39.4759, 39.4266, 39.4575, -0.0136)

39.6470
39.7
39.6

39.5
39.4
39.2796 39.3
39.2
39.1
39.0
38.9

38.8
38.7
38.6200 38.6
38.5
38.4
38.3
38.2

38.1

38.0550 38.0
37.9
37.8
37.7
37.6

28 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010 J

New recovery high off year low (see graph).

1st Support at 39.3596/ .3417 (daily Short Term Moving Average↑/ daily envelope bottom), with next levels at
39.2717/ .2467 (daily Medium Term Moving Average↑/ reaction low hourly), ahead of 39.2047/ .1928 (modified daily
Alpha Beta trend bottom/ reaction low hourly) and 39.1857(daily Bollinger midline), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 39.0900 (current week low), ahead of 38.9915/ .9540 (reaction low hourly/ modified daily
Standard Error band bottom): tough on 1st attempts.

Resistance at 39.5180 (today’s + current week high?), ahead of 39.5720 (daily envelope top + reaction high
hourly), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 39.5949 (daily Bollinger top), ahead of 39.6252 (modified daily Alpha Beta trend top +
weekly envelope top/ current new recovery high off year low): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

39.3596/ .3417 (see above/ daily envelope bottom) 39.5180 (see above)

39.2717/ .2467 (daily MT MA↑/ see above) 39.5720 (daily envelope top + reaction high hourly)

39.2047/ .1857 (see above/ daily Bollinger midline) 39.5949/ .6470 (daily Bollinger top/ see above)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 3
 Friday, July 30, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Central Europe FX

EUR/CZK: (24.7600) New year low on break below 25.4200 and channel off 26.3000 (see graph)

FOREX EURCZK=D2, (24.735, 24.780, 24.700, 24.770, +0.030)

26.40
26.35
26.3000
26.30
26.25
26.20
26.15
26.0800 26.10
26.05
26.00
25.95
25.90
25.85
25.80
25.75
25.70
25.65
25.60
25.55
25.50
25.45
25.4200 25.40
25.35
25.30
25.3000 25.25
25.20
25.15
25.10
25.05
25.00
25.0150
24.95
24.90
24.85
24.80
24.75
24.70
24.65
24.6500 24.60
24.55

2010 May June July

New year low on move below 25.4200 (see graph) and channel off 26.3000 (see graph) and testing daily
Bollinger bottom (25.7500).
Support at 24.7240 (modified daily Standard Error band bottom), with next levels at 24.6500/ .6390 (new year
low/ daily Starc bottom + daily envelope bottom) and 24.6210 (potential of channel break off 26.3000: see
graph), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 24.5860 (modified daily Alpha Beta trend bottom), ahead of 25.5400/ .5210 (2nd target
off 25.4200/ 76.4% 22.9250 to 29.6900): tough on 1st attempts.

Resistance area at 24.8150/ .8390 (daily envelope top/ breakdown hourly), with next levels at 24.8840 (daily
Short Term Moving Average↓), ahead of 24.9260/ .9400 (modified daily Alpha Beta Trend top/ breakdown
hourly and 25.0150/ .0220 (previous year low/ breakdown daily): ideal area to stay below to keep current mood
on CZK.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

24.7240 (see above) 24.8150/ .8390 (daily envelope top/ see above)

24.6500/ .6390 (new year low/ see above) 24.8840 (daily ST MA↓)

24.5860/ .5210 (see above/ 76.4% 22.9250 to

24.9260/ .9400 (see above/ breakdown hourly)
29.6900)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 4
 Friday, July 30, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Central Europe FX

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This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be
held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a
recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee the
accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice.

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 5