Cross Asset

Technical Vista

January 10, 2011

International Markets Analysis

FINANCIAL PRODUCTS SALES DIVISION Important Disclaimer in page 2
 Disclaimer

The information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we make
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2
 Risk Sentiment
Eurozone Risk Sentiment Index US Risk Sentiment Index
0,6 0,6
Ris k Appetite Ris k Appetite

0,35 0,35

0,1 0,1

-0,15 -0,15

-0,4 -0,4

-0,65 -0,65

-0,9 -0,9

-1,15 -1,15
Risk Avers ion
Ris k Aversion
-1,4 -1,4
8/04
12/04
4/05
8/05
12/05
4/06
8/06
12/06
4/07
8/07
12/07
4/08
8/08
12/08
4/09
8/09
12/09
4/10
8/10
12/10

8/04
12/04
4/05
8/05
12/05
4/06
8/06
12/06
4/07
8/07
12/07
4/08
8/08
12/08
4/09
8/09
12/09
4/10
8/10
12/10
Source: Bloomberg,
Bloomberg, International Markets Analysis

` Risk aversion has escalated in the Eurozone due to mounting worries about sovereign debt crisis.
` Risk appetite appears as moderate in the US, with no major change in the last few weeks.
3
 EUR/USD
Daily QEUR= 12/22/2009 - 1/28/2011 (GMT)
SMA, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 200
1/10/2011, 1.3073 Price
SMA, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 55 USD
1/10/2011, 1.3425 1.45
0.0% SMA, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 21
1.4282
1/10/2011, 1.3178 1.4
BBand, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 21, Simple, 2.0
23.6% 1.3715
1/10/2011, 1.3451, 1.3178, 1.2905
1.35
38.2% 1.3364
50.0% 1.3081 1.3
61.8% 1.2798

76.4% 1.2447 1.25

1.2
100.0% 1.1881
.1234
MinusDI, QEUR=, Bid, 14, Wilder Smoothing
1/10/2011, 29.0000 Value
PlusDI, QEUR=, Bid, 14, Wilder Smoothing USD
1/10/2011, 18.0000
20
ADX, QEUR=, Bid, 14, Wilder Smoothing
1/10/2011, 15.0000 .1234
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010

Source: Reuters,
Reuters, International Markets Analysis

` EUR/USD will probably range trade in the short term (up to 1 month horizon), with some bias to
the downside.
` Support is placed at $1.2795 (Fibonacci retracement level 61.8%: $1.1875-$1.4281) and at
$1.2642 (10/9/10 low).
` Resistance levels in the short term (1 month horizon) at $1.3073 (200 days MA), $1.3178 (21
4 days MA).
 USD/JPY
Daily QJPY= 8/28/2009 - 2/4/2011 (GMT)

Price
/USD
100.0% 94.97

93
76.4% 91.49

61.8% 89.33
90
BarOHLC, QJPY=, Bid 50.0% 87.59
1/10/2011, 83.21, 83.28, 82.92, 83.14 87
38.2% 85.85
SMA, QJPY=, Bid(Last), 200
1/10/2011, 86.52 23.6% 83.69 84
SMA, QJPY=, Bid(Last), 55
1/10/2011, 82.75 81
SMA, QJPY=, Bid(Last), 21 0.0% 80.21
1/10/2011, 82.96
.12
BBand QJPY= Bid(Last) 21 Simple 2 0
Value ADX, QJPY=, Bid, 14, Wilder Smoothing
/USD Value
1/10/2011, 21.00
30 /USD
PlusDI, QJPY=, Bid, 14, Wilder Smoothing
1/10/2011, 24.00 20
20
MinusDI, QJPY=, Bid, 14, Wilder Smoothing
.12 1/10/2011, 18.00 .12
S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F
Q3 09 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010

Source: Reuters,
Reuters, International Markets Analysis
` USD/JPY is reacting upwards softly.
` Resistance levels at 83.70 area (7/1 high and Fibonacci retracement level 23.6% of the
downwards move from 94.98 (5/5/10)-80.22 (1/11/10)) and at 84.51-70 (15/12/10 high and
higher bound of daily Bollinger bands).
5 ` Support is placed at 80.94 (3/1/11 low) and 80.22 (1/11/10 low).
 EUR/JPY
Daily QEURJPY= 2/26/2010 - 1/26/2011 (GMT)
SMA, QEURJPY=, Bid(Last), 200
1/10/2011, 112.99 Price
SMA, QEURJPY=, Bid(Last), 55 JPY
1/10/2011, 111.08 125
SMA, QEURJPY=, Bid(Last), 21
1/10/2011, 109.34 120

115

110

.12
Value MinusDI, QEURJPY=, Bid, 14, Wilder Smoothing
JPY 1/10/2011, 26.00
ADX, QEURJPY=, Bid, 14, Wilder Smoothing
30
1/10/2011, 31.00
20
PlusDI, QEURJPY=, Bid, 14, Wilder Smoothing
.12 1/10/2011, 12.00
MACD, QEURJPY=, Bid(Last), 12, 26, 9, Exponential
1/10/2011, -0.84, -0.78 Value
JPY
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 11

Source: Reuters,
Reuters, International Markets Analysis

` EUR/JPY is in downtrend in the short term (up to 1 month horizon).

` Support levels appear at 105.41 (24/8/10 low) and at 103.31 (14/6/01).

6
` Resistance levels are placed at 109.65 (6/1/11 high) and at 111.00 (55 days MA).
 GBP/USD
Daily QGBP= 12/26/2008 - 2/17/2011 (GMT)

Price
USD

1.65

0.0% 1.6299
1.62

1.59
23.6% 1.5811
1.56
38.2% 1.5509

50.0% 1.5265 1.53

61.8% 1.5021 1.5

76.4% 1.4719 1.47

Cndl, QGBP=, Bid
1/10/2011, 1.5522, 1.5567, 1.5474, 1.5487 1.44
SMA, QGBP=, Bid(Last), 55
100.0% 1.4231
1/10/2011, 1.5753 1.41
SMA, QGBP=, Bid(Last), 200
1/10/2011, 1.5415 1.38
BBand, QGBP=, Bid(Last), 21, Simple, 2.0
1/10/2011, 1.5758, 1.5522, 1.5287
1.35

.1234
RSI, QGBP=, Bid(Last), 10, Wilder Smoothing
1/10/2011, 46.635 Value
USD
30
.123
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

Source: Reuters,
Reuters, International Markets Analysis
` GBP/USD remains into range trading mode in the short term.
` Support levels are found at the area of $1.5407-15 (7/1/11 low & 200 DMA) and at $1.5290-95
(7/9/10 low & lower Bollinger band).
` Resistance levels at $1.5753-60 (55 DMA & upper Bollinger band) and $1.5910 (14/12/10 high).
7
 EUR/GBP
Daily QEURGBP= 10/2/2009 - 2/9/2011 (GMT)

Price
GBP

0.92

0.91

0.9
0.0% 0.8941
0.89

0.88
23.6% 0.8734
0.87

38.2% 0.8606 0.86

SMA, QEURGBP=, Bid(Last), 200
50.0% 0.8503 0.85
1/10/2011, 0.8477
SMA, QEURGBP=, Bid(Last), 55 0.84
61.8% 0.8399
1/10/2011, 0.8520
Cndl, QEURGBP=, Bid 0.83
1/10/2011, 0.8295, 0.8334, 0.8283, 0.8324 76.4% 0.8271
SMA, QEURGBP=, Bid(Last), 21 0.82
1/10/2011, 0.8487
0.81
100.0% 0.8065 .1234
RSI, QEURGBP=, Bid(Last), 9, Wilder Smoothing
1/10/2011, 31.842 Value
GBP
30
.123
16 02 16 01 16 01 18 01 16 01 16 01 16 03 17 01 16 01 16 02 16 01 16 01 18 01 16 01 16 03 17 01
Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

Source: Reuters,
Reuters, International Markets Analysis
` The EUR/GBP is in downtrend in the short term. Further drop seems possible if the pair does
cross the medium term trend line (0.8275).
` Support levels are placed at 0.8271-85 area (76.4% Fibonacci retracement 0.8065-0.8941 &
medium uptrend line) and at 0.8131 (23/8/10 low).
8
` Resistance levels at 0.8477 (200 DMA) and at 0.8648 (31/12/10 high).
 USD/CHF
Daily QCHF= 4/7/2010 - 1/24/2011 (GMT)

Cndl, QCHF=, Bid Price

100.0% 1.173 1/10/2011, 0.9680, 0.9697, 0.9628, 0.9658 /USD
SMA, QCHF=, Bid(Last), 55
1/10/2011, 0.9744 1.14
SMA, QCHF=, Bid(Last), 200
76.4% 1.1156 1/10/2011, 1.0345 1.11
SMA, QCHF=, Bid(Last), 21
1/10/2011, 0.9570
61.8% 1.0801 1.08

50.0% 1.0514 1.05

38.2% 1.0227 1.02

23.6% 0.9872 0.99

0.96

0.0% 0.9298 0.93

.1234
MACD, QCHF=, Bid(Last), 12, 26, 9, Exponential
1/10/2011, -0.0045, -0.0074 Value
/USD

.1234
16 03 17 01 16 01 16 02 16 01 16 01 18 01 16 01 16 03 17
Apr 10 May 10 Jun 10 Jul 10 Aug 10 Sep 10 Oct 10 Nov 10 Dec 10 Jan 11
Source: Reuters,
Reuters, International Markets Analysis
` The USD/CHF is trying to rebound in the short term.
` Resistance is found at the area of 0.9690-0.9707 CHF (6-10/1/11 high & medium term downtrend
line), at 0.9872 CHF (23.6% Fibonacci retracement 1.1730-0.9298 CHF) and at 1.0055-62 CHF
area (1-2/12/10 high).
9
` Support level at 0.9298 CHF (historic low).
 EUR/CHF
Daily QEURCHF= 12/3/2009 - 2/2/2011 (GMT)

Price
Cndl, QEURCHF=, Bid
1/10/2011, 1.2476, 1.2489, 1.2431, 1.2449 CHF
SMA, QEURCHF=, Bid(Last), 21 1.5
1/10/2011, 1.2612
SMA, QEURCHF=, Bid(Last), 55 1.47
1/10/2011, 1.3084
SMA, QEURCHF=, Bid(Last), 200 1.44
1/10/2011, 1.3501

1.41

1.38

1.35

1.32

1.29

1.26

1.23

.1234
RSI, QEURCHF=, Bid(Last), 9, Wilder Smoothing
1/10/2011, 36.979 Value
CHF
30
.123
16 01 18 01 16 01 16 01 16 03 17 01 16 01 16 02 16 01 16 01 18 01 16 01 16 03 17 01
Dec 09 Jan 10 Feb 10 Mar 10 Apr 10 May 10 Jun 10 Jul 10 Aug 10 Sep 10 Oct 10 Nov 10 Dec 10 Jan 11

Source: Reuters,
Reuters, International Markets Analysis

` The EUR/CHF is moving downwards targeting the historic low level (1.2400 CHF).
` Support levels appear at 1.2400 CHF (historic low) & 1.2300 CHF (downtrend trend channel/short
term).
10
` Resistance is found at the area of 1.2723-25 CHF (4-5/1/11 high) and at 1.3084 CHF (55 DMA).
 Crude Oil (WTI) 1stst Month Future
Oil (WTI)
Daily QCLc1 7/24/2008 - 2/25/2011 (NYC)

61.8% 103.39 Price

USD
Bbl

50.0% 89.84 90

85

80
38.2% 76.28 75

70

65

23.6% 59.51 60
Cndl, QCLc1, Last Trade 55
1/10/2011, 89.00, 89.98, 88.63, 88.77
SMA, QCLc1, Last Trade(Last), 200 50
1/10/2011, 80.17
45
SMA, QCLc1, Last Trade(Last), 55
1/10/2011, 86.59 40
BBand, QCLc1, Last Trade(Last), 21, Simple, 2
35
1/10/2011, 92.26, 89.57, 86.87
0.0% 32.4 .12
RSI, QCLc1, Last Trade(Last), 9, Wilder Smoothing
1/10/2011, 45.991 Value
USD
Bbl
123
A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011[Delayed]
Source: Reuters,
Reuters, International Markets Analysis
` Crude oil WTI is in a short term correction mode after posting 2 year high ($92.58/brl) on January
3rd
` Support levels are placed at $86.59/brl (55 days MA) and at the area of $80.05-17/brl (200 DMA,
11 medium uptrend line and 17/11/10 low).
` Resistance at $92.58/brl (3/1/11 high).
 Spot Gold
Daily QXAU= 8/15/2008 - 2/24/2011 (GMT)
Price
76.4% 1,460.64
USD
Ozs
Cndl, QXAU=, Bid 61.8% 1,380.99
1/10/2011, 1,368.80, 1,376.00, 1,367.35, 1,372.14 1,350
SMA, QXAU=, Bid(Last), 55 50.0% 1,316.62
1/10/2011, 1,378.86 1,300
SMA, QXAU=, Bid(Last), 200 38.2% 1,252.24 1,250
1/10/2011, 1,270.01
1,200
23.6% 1,172.6
1,150

1,100

0.0% 1,043.85 1,050

1,000
950

900

850

800

750

.12
S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F
Q3 08 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

Source: Reuters,
Reuters, International Markets Analysis

` Gold is in range trading mode in the short term. The medium term upward trend remains intact.
` Resistance level appears at $1,424-1,431/Oz (9/11/10, 7/12/10 & 3/1/11high).
` Support at $1,315-1,318/Oz (20-21/10/10 & 27/10/10 low)
12
 S&P 500
Daily Q.GSPC 2/19/2007 - 6/13/2011 (NYC)
BarOHLC, Q.GSPC, Last Trade
100.0% 1,576.13 Price
1/10/2011, 1,271.50, 1,271.50, 1,264.39, 1,265.07
SMA, Q.GSPC, Last Trade(Last), 55 USD
1/10/2011, 1,222.24 1,400
76.4% 1,361.47 SMA, Q.GSPC, Last Trade(Last), 200
1/10/2011, 1,149.39 1,300
61.8% 1,228.67 SMA, Q.GSPC, Last Trade(Last), 21
1,200
1/10/2011, 1,256.29
50.0% 1,121.34 1,100
38.2% 1,014 1,000

23.6% 881.21 900

800
700
0.0% 666.55 .12
ADX, Q.GSPC, Last Trade, 14, Wilder Smoothing
Value
1/10/2011, 33.00
PlusDI, Q.GSPC, Last Trade, 14, Wilder Smoothing USD
1/10/2011, 28.00
20
MinusDI, Q.GSPC, Last Trade, 14, Wilder Smoothing
1/10/2011, 16.00 .12
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Reuters,
Reuters, International Markets Analysis
` S&P 500 has broken upwards the strong resistance of 1,229 area (Fibonacci retracement 61.8%
of the move from October 2007 high (1,576.06) down to March low 666.92) on the 7th of
December.
` Moving averages and other trend indicators are on the bullish side.
` S&P 500 will likely first continue upwards to 1,303 level (2/9/08 high).
` RSI (9 days), which is close to overbought territory (currently at 71 points), may in the following
days stretch further upwards and thus produce an overbought/divergence signal, probably towards
the end of the short term horizon (1 month horizon).
` A possible correction below 1,270-1,300 area will find support at the previous strong resistance
13
area (1,229).
 German 10YR
10YR Government
Government Bond
Bond Yield
Yield
Daily QEU10YT=RR 12/31/2007 - 3/7/2011 (UTC)

100.0% 3.748 Yield

3.6

3.4
76.4% 3.357
3.2
61.8% 3.115 0.0% 3.086
3
BarOHLC, QEU10YT=RR, Yield_1 50.0% 2.92
23.6% 2.851
1/10/2011, 2.868, 2.899, 2.846, 2.877 2.8
38.2% 2.725 38.2% 2.706
SMA, QEU10YT=RR, Yield_1(Last), 55
1/10/2011, 2.742 50.0% 2.589 2.6
SMA, QEU10YT=RR, Yield_1(Last), 200 23.6% 2.483 61.8% 2.472
2.4
1/10/2011, 2.646 76.4% 2.327
SMA, QEU10YT=RR, Yield_1(Last), 21
2.2
1/10/2011, 2.965
0.0% 2.093 100.0% 2.093
.123
Value ADX, QEU10YT=RR, Yield_1, 14, Wilder Smoothing
40 1/10/2011, 24.000
PlusDI, QEU10YT=RR, Yield_1, 14, Wilder Smoothing
30
1/10/2011, 21.000
20 MinusDI, QEU10YT=RR, Yield_1, 14, Wilder Smoothing
10 1/10/2011, 27.000
.123
MACD, QEU10YT=RR, Yield_1(Last), 12, 26, 9, Exponential
1/10/2011, 0.030, 0.059 Value

.123
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M
Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11
Source: Reuters,
Reuters, International Markets Analysis

` Average directional index (ADX, DMI) had produced a short term downtrend signal for the
German 10 year government bond yield since 4/1/2011. MACD also points to falling yield in the
short term.
` Support levels are found at 2.70% and at 2.59% (retracement levels 38.2% and 50% respectively:
2.09%-3.08%).
14 ` Resistance is placed at 2.97% (21 days MA) and at 3.11% (61.8% Fibonacci retracement: 3.75%-
2.09%).
 US 10YR Government Bond Yield
Daily QUS10YT=RR 12/31/2007 - 3/30/2011 (UTC)

100.0% 4.0017 Yield

76.4% 3.6079 3.6

61.8% 3.3643
BarOHLC, QUS10YT=RR, Yield_1 50.0% 3.1674 3.2
1/10/2011, 3.3353, 3.3762, 3.3121, 3.3297
38.2% 2.9705
SMA, QUS10YT=RR, Yield_1(Last), 55
2.8
1/10/2011, 3.0113 23.6% 2.7269
SMA, QUS10YT=RR, Yield_1(Last), 21
1/10/2011, 3.3737 2.4
0.0% 2.3331
SMA, QUS10YT=RR, Yield_1(Last), 200
1/10/2011, 3.0648 .1234
MACD, QUS10YT=RR, Yield_1(Last), 12, 26, 9, Exponential
1/10/2011, 0.0817, 0.1079 Value
1234
ADX, QUS10YT=RR, Yield_1, 14, Wilder Smoothing
1/10/2011, 39.0000 Value
PlusDI, QUS10YT=RR, Yield_1, 14, Wilder Smoothing 40
1/10/2011, 25.0000
MinusDI, QUS10YT=RR, Yield_1, 14, Wilder Smoothing 20
1/10/2011, 13.0000 .1234
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Reuters,
Reuters, International Markets Analysis
` US 10 year government bond yield is trending upwards in the short term, as signaled by
ADX/DMI.
` Resistance at 3.56% (16/12/10 high) and at 3.61% (fibonacci retracement levels 76.4%: 4%-
2.332%).
` Support level (in case MACD divergence gets verified) is found at 3.25% (20/12/10 low) and at
15 3.06% (200 days MA).
 US 5yr interest rate swap
Daily QUSDSB3L5Y=RR 1/29/2009 - 2/16/2011 (UTC)

Price
100.0% 3.546

3.2
76.4% 3.014
2.8
61.8% 2.685
50.0% 2.419 2.4
38.2% 2.153 BarOHLC, QUSDSB3L5Y=RR, Bid
1/10/2011, 2.177, 2.197, 2.160, 2.191 2
23.6% 1.824 SMA, QUSDSB3L5Y=RR, Bid(Last), 55
1/10/2011, 1.887 1.6
SMA, QUSDSB3L5Y=RR, Bid(Last), 21
0.0% 1.292 1/10/2011, 2.219
1.2
SMA, QUSDSB3L5Y=RR, Bid(Last), 200
1/10/2011, 1.982 .123
PlusDI, QUSDSB3L5Y=RR, Bid, 14, Wilder Smoothing
1/10/2011, 23.000 Value
MinusDI, QUSDSB3L5Y=RR, Bid, 14, Wilder Smoothing
1/10/2011, 18.000
20
ADX, QUSDSB3L5Y=RR, Bid, 14, Wilder Smoothing
1/10/2011, 34.000 .123
F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F
Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10
Source: Reuters,
Reuters, International Markets Analysis

` Some directional indicators signal US 5year swap rate upward trend.

` Resistance is placed at 2.42% (16/12/10 high) and at 2.69% (Fibonacci retracement level 61.8%
3.54%-1.29%).
` Support is found at 1.98% (200 days MA).
16
 Euro 5yr interest
interest rate
rate swap
swap
Daily QEURAB6E5Y= 4/30/2009 - 2/10/2011 (GMT)

Price
Cndl, QEURAB6E5Y=, Bid
100.0% 3.1752 EUR
1/10/2011, 2.4090, 2.4550, 2.3900, 2.4220
3.1
SMA, QEURAB6E5Y=, Bid(Last), 55
1/10/2011, 2.3622 3
SMA, QEURAB6E5Y=, Bid(Last), 200
2.9
1/10/2011, 2.1456
76.4% 2.8254 SMA, QEURAB6E5Y=, Bid(Last), 21 2.8
1/10/2011, 2.5183
2.7

61.8% 2.6091 2.6

2.5
50.0% 2.4342
2.4

2.3
38.2% 2.2593
2.2

2.1
23.6% 2.0429
2
1.9

1.8

0.0% 1.6931 1.7

.1234
RSI, QEURAB6E5Y=, Bid(Last), 9, Wilder Smoothing
1/10/2011, 40.438 Value
EUR
30
.123
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011
Source: Reuters,
Reuters, International Markets Analysis

` The Euro 5yr interest rate swap has entered into range trading after posting 11 months high.
` Resistance levels are placed at 2.68% (16/12/10 high) and at 2.82% (76.4% Fibonacci
retracement 3.175%-1.693%).
` Support at 2.36% (55 days MA) and at 2.21% (29/11/10 low).
17
 Correlation Matrix
50 Days Correlation Matrix (Value)
Equity Index Commodities Risk Aversion Index
S&P 500 Euro Stoxx 50 MSCI AC World CRB GOLD WTI RA EU RA US
Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m -1m -1m Current -1m Current -1m
DXY 0,3866 0,2164 -0,4606 -0,6816 0,0385 -0,2308 0,3221 0,1835 0,0442 0,2270 0,3523 0,3041 0,7592 0,8629 0,8290 0,8438
EUR/USD -0,4895 -0,3015 0,4086 0,6413 -0,1582 0,1372 -0,4318 -0,2807 -0,1347 -0,3272 -0,4499 -0,3947 -0,8174 -0,8982 -0,8315 -0,8374
USD/JPY -0,0239 0,0524 -0,3722 -0,6872 -0,3012 -0,3024 -0,1311 -0,0110 -0,2321 0,0913 -0,0670 0,2100 0,2888 0,6957 0,5622 0,5846
GBP/USD -0,6146 0,2027 0,2755 0,5948 -0,3173 0,5314 -0,5994 0,2005 -0,2015 0,1908 -0,5873 0,0774 -0,8713 -0,5208 -0,7773 -0,6150
USD/CHF -0,8154 0,1913 -0,5463 -0,4391 -0,8940 -0,1852 -0,8576 0,1154 -0,5343 0,0235 -0,7593 0,0812 -0,3907 0,5596 -0,0097 0,8079
EUR/CHF -0,8617 -0,2716 -0,0120 0,5575 -0,6559 0,0311 -0,8438 -0,3150 -0,4276 -0,4824 -0,7997 -0,5252 -0,8604 -0,8311 -0,6405 -0,4902
EUR/GBP -0,1562 -0,5080 0,4460 0,4554 0,1071 -0,1493 -0,0603 -0,4802 0,0036 -0,5346 -0,1118 -0,5505 -0,4636 -0,8270 -0,6184 -0,6919
EUR/JPY -0,6721 -0,4581 0,2780 0,3672 -0,4295 -0,0851 -0,6730 -0,4888 -0,3489 -0,4595 -0,6514 -0,4511 -0,8832 -0,7941 -0,7055 -0,8074
Bund Fut. -0,6613 -0,6557 0,0088 0,1357 -0,4093 -0,3007 -0,5956 -0,5547 -0,2304 -0,4199 -0,6047 -0,5087 -0,7477 -0,7487 -0,7272 -0,6998

Government Bonds
2Y US 10Y US 2Y GE 10Y GE 2Y UK 10Y UK 2Y JN 10Y JN
Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m
DXY 0,7566 0,8202 0,7354 0,7711 -0,1293 0,0860 0,7828 0,7533 0,7973 0,7682 0,8244 0,8038 0,7599 0,8530 0,8638 0,8755
EUR/USD -0,7931 -0,8356 -0,7814 -0,7983 0,2105 -0,0784 -0,8062 -0,7759 -0,8084 -0,7870 -0,8359 -0,8238 -0,7497 -0,8743 -0,8568 -0,8987
USD/JPY 0,5020 0,8283 0,4272 0,6180 0,3496 -0,0093 0,5074 0,5159 0,6008 0,7152 0,6424 0,6675 0,6361 0,6387 0,7395 0,7295
GBP/USD -0,7878 -0,3231 -0,8112 -0,2931 0,3309 0,2210 -0,8238 -0,3810 -0,7347 -0,1756 -0,7655 -0,2821 -0,7105 -0,4798 -0,7242 -0,3901
USD/CHF -0,4052 0,6596 -0,4955 0,7088 0,2668 0,5050 -0,3644 0,7100 -0,2630 0,7350 -0,2391 0,7721 -0,1575 0,7107 -0,0249 0,7413
EUR/CHF -0,8458 -0,6291 -0,8909 -0,5213 0,3254 0,3881 -0,8319 -0,4870 -0,7705 -0,4790 -0,7780 -0,4976 -0,6658 -0,6419 -0,6681 -0,6473
EUR/GBP -0,5239 -0,8634 -0,4710 -0,8355 -0,0188 -0,2317 -0,5038 -0,7552 -0,6236 -0,8919 -0,6386 -0,8748 -0,5432 -0,8211 -0,7365 -0,9059
EUR/JPY -0,6921 -0,5468 -0,7321 -0,7040 0,5382 -0,1414 -0,7082 -0,7748 -0,6379 -0,5808 -0,6470 -0,6946 -0,5410 -0,8152 -0,6075 -0,7589
Bund Fut. -0,8818 -0,7841 -0,9431 -0,9509 -0,0495 -0,4676 -0,9951 -0,9973 -0,8533 -0,8245 -0,9566 -0,9481 -0,8927 -0,9220 -0,8854 -0,9013
Significant negative correlation Significant positive correlation

50 trading days rolling price correlation. Source: Bloomberg,

Bloomberg, International Markets Analysis
` EUR/USD exhibits strong negative correlation with US 10year, US 2year government bond yields.
` EUR/USD shows negative correlation with risk aversion, implying that the pair is moving to the
same direction with risky assets.
` USD/JPY positive correlation with US yields has weakened significantly during the recent weeks.
` EUR/CHF still exhibits negative correlation with risk aversion index (eurozone region).
18
 Technical Analysis Synopsis

Last_Price
Percent Change to Date
Monthly trend
Range MA's crossover Overbought/Oversold MACD Signal 3 Months
Week Month Year Upper Lower signal Singal (Daily) (Daily) trend
DXY Dollar Index 81,069 0,17 2,69 2,69 Range Trading 81,41 78,91 Up No Signal Up Signal Range Trading
EUR/USD 1,2935 -0,06 -3,62 -3,6237 Range Trading 1,3454 1,2910 Down No Signal Down Signal Range Trading
GBP/USD 1,5533 -0,32 -0,73 -0,73 Range Trading 1,5761 1,5292 Down No Signal Up Signal Range Trading
USD/JPY 83,2 0,05 2,49 2,49 Range Trading 84,72 81,21 Up No Signal Up Signal Downtrend
FX

USD/CHF 0,9643 -0,08 3,24 3,24 Downtrend Down No Signal Up Signal Downtrend
EUR/GBP 0,83274 0,25 -3,02 -3,02 Downtrend Down No Signal Down Signal Range Trading
EUR/JPY 107,61 -0,01 -1,08 -1,08 Downtrend Down No Signal Down Signal Downtrend
EUR/CHF 1,2473 -0,14 -0,32 -0,32 Downtrend Down No Signal Up Signal Downtrend
S&P 500 INDEX 1271,5 0,00 1,10 1,10 Uptrend Up No Signal Up Signal Uptrend
Euro Stoxx 50 Pr 2773,13 -1,09 -0,54 -0,54 Range Trading 2886 2787 Up No Signal Down Signal Range Trading
E q u itie s

DAX INDEX 6890,27 -0,40 0,08 0,08 Range Trading 7082 6906 Up No Signal Down Signal Uptrend
CAC 40 INDEX 3808,41 -1,21 0,37 0,37 Range Trading 3946 3821 Up No Signal Down Signal Range Trading
NIKKEI 225 10541,04 0,00 3,05 3,05 Uptrend Up No Signal Up Signal Range Trading
C m d tie s

Crude Oil 1m Future 88,65 0,77 -2,92 -2,92 Range Trading 92,26 86,86 Up No Signal Down Signal Range Trading
GOLD SPOT $/OZ 1370,48 0,05 -3,55 -3,55 Range Trading 1418,16 1357,75 Up No Signal Down Signal Uptrend
Copper Furture 1M 425,9 0,00 -3,76 -3,76 Downtrend Down Overbought Down Signal Uptrend
10 Yr Germany Govt Yield 2,884 0,52 -2,67 -2,67 Range Trading 3,0732 2,8653 Up No Signal Down Signal Uptrend
F ix e d In c o m e

2 Yr Germany Govt Yield 0,878 1,96 2,20 2,20 Downtrend Down No Signal Down Signal Range Trading
10 Yr US Govt Yield 3,3316 0,06 0,98 0,98 Uptrend Up No Signal Down Signal Uptrend
2 Yr US Govt Yield 0,601 1,33 1,28 1,28 Uptrend Up No Signal Down Signal Uptrend
EUR 5 Yr IRS 2,4435 1,55 -1,59 -1,59 Range Trading 2,6777 2,3828 Up No Signal Down Signal Uptrend
US 5 Yr IRS 2,1985 0,27 0,92 0,92 Uptrend Up No Signal Down Signal Uptrend

Source: Reuters,
Reuters, International Markets Analysis

19
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Panos Remoundos  premoundos@alpha.gr

Maria Koutouzi  mkoutouzi@alpha.gr
Ioannis Kouravelos, CFA  ikouravelos@alpha.gr
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