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Emami Ltd
Bloomberg Code: HMN IN
anticipated increase in top line due to high margin products in the portfolio, rising
temperature across India, strong brand positioning, innovation and new product Relative Performance*
launches which were favourably received by the market, with strong balance sheet 150
& financial ratios, we expect that the consumer expenditure will further increase as 130
the economy revives and hence there will be growth in Emamis top line and bottom 110
line as well. Based on P/E of 38.5x, we initiate the coverage with a BUY rating 90
for a Target Price of Rs.1313 representing an upside of 30% for a period of 12-15
70
months. Mar-16
Jul-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Jun-15
Jan-16
May-15
Feb-16
Sep-15
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Emami Ltd
Exhibit 2: Shareholding Pattern (%) Exhibit 3: Geography-wise Revenue Segmentation - FY15 (%)
FIIs Domestic
16.3% 85.7%
DIIs
Promoters 1.2%
72.7% International
Others 14.3%
9.8%
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Emami Ltd
High Margin Products in the Portfolio are expected to drive EBITDA growth ahead of Sales growth:
Exhibit 4: Revenue & EBITDA Growth (%)
25% 21.8% 23.5%
20.9%
Recent acquisition of Kesh King Brand, accounts for around
20% 16.6% 16.9%
14.3% 75% gross margin and 45% EBITDA margin as compared
15% 11.8% 16.3%
17.1% to the other products in the portfolio. Kesh King Brand is
10% 12.2% 12.7% expected to drive the top line growth by around 8% to 10%
additionally. This will enable Emami to record higher margins
5% 7.2% 7.5% 7.1%
in FY17E and FY18E. Emami has also launched new Stock
0% Keeping Units (SKUs) to increase the rural penetration
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E targeting middle age women.
Revenue Growth (%) EBITDA Growth (%)
Source: Company, Karvy Research
Hair oils:
Emami plugged a gap in its portfolio through the introduction of Emami 7 Oils in One, a unique oil formula combining seven
Ayurvedic ingredients which are effective for strong and healthy hair growth targeting young girls and women.
Cool oil:
Emami catalysed the cool oil category in India through Navratna Oil, enjoying ~60% market share by volume and 65.5% share
by value. The company is an undisputed leader in the cooling oil category.
Exhibit 5: Key Brands & Presence Exhibit 6: Penetration Level (%)
8000 60.5% 80% 80%
56.2%
62.6%
77.7%
6000 60% 60% 70.0%
7520
4000 40%
7370
40%
4390
3800
2000 20%
32.0%
17.0% 11.0% 13.0% 15.0% 20% 26.0%
0 0%
Navratna Boroplus Zandu Fair & 17.0%
Handsome 0%
Navratna Boroplus Zandu Fair &
Market Size (Rs. Mn) CAGR (5yrs) (RHS) Market Share (%) (RHS) Handsome
Penetration (%)
Source: Company, Karvy Research Source: Company, Karvy Research
It is observed that Emami enjoys market leadership position across all the brands. The fastest growing category amongst all is
the Navratna Brand growing at 17% CAGR in last 5 years. However, Navratna has very low penetration across India. The major
market for Navratna cooling oil is North India. With low penetration of Navratna and being the market leader, it is expected to
grow at high pace.
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Emami Ltd
Skin care:
Skin care accounted for around 30% of Emamis revenues and a higher share of profits. Emami is the leader in the antiseptic
cream category and in the mens fairness cream segment which it pioneered. Its Navratna Cool Talc (niche cooling positioning)
has substantially increased market share in the cool talc category.
International Business:
Exhibit 7: International Market Share (%)
100% The international business of Emami contributes around 17%
93.0% 91.0% of the total revenue; the international business has recorded
80%
16% CAGR from FY11 to FY15, during Q3FY16 international
60% business grew by 11% and by 14% in 9MFY16. Emami
40% also enjoys leadership position in international markets; the
47.0% 45.0%
37.0% Navratna cooling oil and Fair & Handsome dominate the
20% 30.0%
markets across UAE, Saudi Arabia and Bangladesh. The
0% company expects robust growth in top line from international
Navratna Fair & Handsome business going forward.
UAE Saudi Arabia Bangladesh
Source: Company, Karvy Research
Exhibit 8: Geography-wise Revenue Segmentation - Q3FY16 (%) Exhibit 9: International Revenue Segmentation (%)
MENAP
35.0%
Others
9.0%
Source: Company, Karvy Research Source: Company, Karvy Research, MENAP: Middle East, North Africa & Pakistan
SAARC & SEA: South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation & South East Asia
CISEE: Commonwealth of Independent States & Eastern Europe
Summary:
Emami has been an interesting growth story in the Indian FMCG sector with a net profit CAGR of more than 20% in the last
five years. We expect that Emami is better positioned for faster growth; driven by (1) its entry into new categories, (2) scale up
of the Zandu Health Care Division (HCD) and (3) growth in international business. Emami looks well placed with strategy of
innovation and creation of strong portfolio of niche products, many of which are based on traditional ayurvedic formulations.
Most of these products have high gross margins - highest among domestic peers, along with the low penetration of most of its
categories, gives the opportunity for strong growth in the years ahead. We expect Emamis top line to grow at 17% CAGR over
FY17E-FY18E assisted along with new launches like She feminine hygiene, HE deodorants, etc. to contribute to additional
revenue growth.
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Emami Ltd
FY16E 23.1 21.7 6.2 Emamis EPS has registered CAGR of 9.1% from FY11-FY15
and it is expected to register double digit growth during FY17E
FY17E 27.8 26.8 3.8 and FY18E.
Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research
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Emami Ltd
25334
29473
34504
10%
15000 penetration of most of its categories, give the opportunity for strong growth
16991
18208
5000 0% in the years ahead. We expect Emamis top line to grow at 17% CAGR
over FY17E-FY18E assisted along with new launches like She feminine
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
hygiene, HE deodorants, etc. to contribute to additional revenue growth.
Revenue (Rs. Mn) YoY Growth (%)
Most of the products of Emami have high gross margins - highest among domestic peers, the recent acquisition of Kesh King,
which has around 75% gross margin, is expected to drive the EBITDA growth ahead of sales growth.
Exhibit 13: EBITDA (Rs. Mn), EBITDA Margin (%) Exhibit 14: EBIT (Rs. Mn), EBIT Margin (%)
12000 35%
10000 30% 28.2%
27.6%
25.0%
8000 26.4% 28% 9000
30%
6000 24.4% 26% 27.0% 26.9%
23.7% 6000 25.9% 26.0%
22.8% 22.1%
4000 24%
25%
3000
4494
5401
5784
6992
8634
5976
6599
7935
9728
2000 22%
5023
3753
6000
18.5% with a net profit CAGR of more than 20% in the last five years. With high
6309
20%
5240
4856
3000 gross margin products in the portfolio and better product mix, Emami has
3147
4025
18%
earned PAT margin more than 20% and it is expected to grow at ~22%
0 15%
CAGR from FY17E to FY18E.
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
21.4
30%
17.7
34.1
23.1
27.8
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Emami Ltd
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Emami Ltd
60
50
40
Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
P/E Average 1SD 2SD -1SD -2SD
Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research
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Emami Ltd
Peer Comparison
Exhibit 20: Revenue Growth (%) Exhibit 21: EBITDA Margin (%)
25% 21.8% 30% 27.6%
20% 24.4%
25% 22.8% 23.7%
16.3%
14.3%
15%
20%
10% 7.2%
15%
5%
0% 10%
FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E
Emami GCPL Marico Emami GCPL Marico
Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research
Exhibit 22: RoE (%) Exhibit 23: Dividend Payout Ratio (%)
50% 47.1% 60%
44.9% 54.4%
50% 45.0%
38.3%
40% 37.9% 38.7%
46.2%
40%
27.0%
30%
30%
20%
20% 10%
FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15
Emami GCPL Marico Emami GCPL Marico
Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research
Key Risks
yyCompetition.
yyVolatility in raw material prices.
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Emami Ltd
Financials
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Emami Ltd
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Emami Ltd
Disclaimer
Analyst certification: The following analyst(s), Kunal Jagda, who is (are) primarily responsible for this report and whose name(s) is/are mentioned therein,
certify (ies) that the views expressed herein accurately reflect his (their) personal view(s) about the subject security (ies) and issuer(s) and that no part of his
(their) compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report.
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to change without notice. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections.
yy Associates of KSBL might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject
company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.
yy Associates of KSBL might have received compensation from the subject company mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from
the date of this report for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months or for services
rendered as Registrar and Share Transfer Agent, Commodity Broker, Currency and forex broker, merchant banker and underwriter, Investment Advisory
services, insurance repository services, consultancy and advisory services, realty services, data processing, profiling and related services or in any other
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preparation of the research report and have no financial interest in the subject company mentioned in this report.
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received any compensation from the subject company mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months.
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