Contents

Acknowledgments xvii
Introduction xix

CHAPTER 1
Beware of the Dog 1

Section I: The Ethics of Political-Military Deception 9

CHAPTER 2
Intelligence Ethics 11

Section II: Principles and Other Fundamentals 19

Introduction 19
The Structure of Deception 19

CHAPTER 3
On Simulation and Dissimulation 21

CHAPTER 4
The 8 Principles of Security and the 8 Principles of Deception 23
The Principles of Security 23
The Principles of Deception 23

CHAPTER 5
Ruses and Stratagems of War 25
Ruses and Stratagems of War 25

CHAPTER 6
The Problem of Deception 29
The Problem of Deception 29
The Infrequency and Neglect of Deception 29
Principles, Techniques and Effectiveness of Deception 30
Types of Deception 32

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CHAPTER 7
Deception Maxims: Fact and Folklore 39

CHAPTER 8
The Principle of Naturalness 41
Conclusion 43

CHAPTER 9
Tactical Deception in Air-Land Warfare 45

Section III: Myths of Deception 55

Introduction 55

CHAPTER 10
Meinertzhagens False Claim to the Haversack Ruse (1917) 57

CHAPTER 11
The Ultra Secret: Enigma Unwrapped
A Review of F.W. Winterbothams The Ultra Secret 59

CHAPTER 12
The Ultra Variations: A Review of Anthony Cave Browns Bodyguard of Lies 63

Section IV: Theories: How Deception Works 73

Introduction 73
How Deception Works 73

CHAPTER 13
Window as Written in Most Secret War 75

CHAPTER 14
The Psychology of Deception 89

CHAPTER 15
Killing No Murder The Strategy of Indirect Approach 97

CHAPTER 16
Cognitive Factors in Deception and Counterdeception 105
Introduction 105
Biases in Perception 107
Implications for Intelligence Analysis 112
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Cognitive Biases 115

Biases in Estimating Probabilities 115
Biases in Evaluation of Evidence 119
Oversensitivity to Consistency 120
Biases in the Perception of Causality 123
Bias Toward Causal Explanations 124
Internal vs. External Causes of Behavior 125
Conclusion 127
Appendix 130
Endnotes 131

CHAPTER 17
The Theory of Practical JokingIts Relevance to Physics 135

CHAPTER 18
Styles in Deception 145
Styles in Deception 145

CHAPTER 19
The Process of Deception 147

Section V: Deception Traditions 149

Introduction 149
Deception Traditions 149
A British Tradition of Stratagem:
And Its Influence on American, Israeli,
Indian and Pakistani Doctrine 151

CHAPTER 20
Conditions Making for Success and Failure of Denial and Deception: Democratic Regimes 153

CHAPTER 21
Some Notes on the Organization of Deception (1944) 161
Some Notes on the Organization of Deception in the United States Forces 161

American Attempts at Deception: A Spotty Record 167

CHAPTER 22
The Actors Tale 169

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CHAPTER 23
American Strategic Deception in the Pacific: 194244 173

CHAPTER 24
A Pentagon Proposal to Continue a Deception Organization after
WW2 (1945)General Conclusions 177
General Recommendations 178

A Russian Tradition of Stratagem: 1939 to the Present 179

CHAPTER 25
Catching NATO Unawares: Soviet Army Surprise and Deception Techniques 181
Surprise in Its Strategic Context 181
The Advantages of Surprise 182
A Heavy Blow 183
Speed and Flexibility in the Advance 184
Simultaneous Attacks Throughout the Enemys Depth 184
Air Superiority 184
The Possibilities of Strategic Surprise 185
The Limits of Modern Surveillance 185
Assessing Intentions 186
Operational Surprise 187
Eight Methods 187
Operational Deception 188
Examples of Maskirova 189
Tasks of Maskirovka 190
Principles of Deception 190
Conclusions 191

CHAPTER 26
The Red Mask: The Nature and Legacy of Soviet Military Deception 193

The Chinese Tradition of Stratagem: circa 350 BC to the Present 199

CHAPTER 27
Foreword to General Griffiths Sun Tzu 201

CHAPTER 28
Stratagem: The Chinese View in the Sun Tzu 203

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CHAPTER 29
Chinese Deception Doctrine: A View from Open Sources 207
Preface 207
Introduction and Overview 208
Implications for the U.S. 208
Limits of Open Sources 209
Background of the Two Authors 210
A Unique Chinese Deception Theory? 211
Examples of Chinese Deception Aspirations 211
Chinese History as a Source of Future Deception Models 214

Section VI: Tactical Camouflage: Now You See It, Now You Dont 215
Introduction 215

CHAPTER 30
Now You See It, Now You Dont: Camoufleurs, Conjurers and Pickpockets 217

Section VII: Strategic Deception 239

Introduction 239
Strategic Deception 239

CHAPTER 31
Biggest Hoax of the War: Operation FORTITUDE: The Allied Deception Plan that
Fooled the Germans about Normandy 241

CHAPTER 32
Soviet Deception in the Cuban Missile CrisisLearning from the Past 251
Maskirovka 252
Close-hold Planning 252
Developing a Cover Story 253
Getting the Cubans on Board 253
Keeping the Secret at Home 254
Secrecy in Transit 255
Unloading in Cuba 256
Movement to Field Sites 257
Disingenuous Diplomacy 258
Denouement 258
In Conclusion 259
Footnotes 260

CHAPTER 33
The Barry and Thomas Critique of the Pentagon Report: In the Lessons and
Non-Lessons of the Air and Missile Campaign in Kosovo 263
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CHAPTER 34
Denial and Deception Practices of WMD Proliferators: Iraq and Beyond 267

Section VIII: Irregular Warfare and Non-State Actors 289

Introduction 289
Terrorists and Other Non-State ActorsConstraints and Opportunities 289

CHAPTER 35
Conditions Making for Success and Failure of Denial and Deception:
Nonstate and Illicit Actors 291

CHAPTER 36
The Evolution of a Revolt 297

CHAPTER 37
The Inherent Vulnerabilities of Technology: Insights from the National Training
Centers Opposing Force 309

CHAPTER 38
Tactical Deception and Strategic Surprise in al-Qaidas Operations 315

CHAPTER 39
How Can Weak Powers Win? 337

Section IX: Ambush and Counterambush 373

Introduction 373
Ambush 373

CHAPTER 40
How to Ambush a NATO Fortress 375
Main Circumstances 375

CHAPTER 41
High Desert Ambush: Hard Lessons Learned the Hard Way 379
Contemporary Issues 380

CHAPTER 42
A Modern Day Trojan HorseOperation JAQUE and the Use of Stratagem
in a Hostage Rescue Operation 383
Operation Willing Spirit 385
Partnership - U.S. and Colombian Special Operational Forces 385
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Operation Willing Spirit Campaign Planning 386

The Reconnaissance Plan and Operation Ellipse 387
Problems From Within 388
Cracking the FARC Communication Codes 389
Operation JAQUECheck 389
Conclusions 391

Section X: Deception Planners and Planning 393

Introduction 393
Deception Planners and Planning 393
Preconditions 393
Process 394

CHAPTER 43
A Commander Improvises His Own Deception Planning Team 395

CHAPTER 44
Deception Planning in 145 Different Disciplines: Lessons from Behind Other Hills 397
How They Deceive 397
The Essence of Deception: Hiding the Real and Showing the False 397
What They Hide and Show: The 5 Ws 399
Bluff and Double Bluff 401
The Theory of Outs 403
In Con Games 403
In Magic 404
In General 405
In War 406
Time Out of Joint 408
MagiciansThe One-Ahead Method 409
Practical Jokers: Its Earlier Than You Think 409
Con Artists: Its Later Than You Think 409
Soldiers 410
The Theory of Indirect Approach 410
Direction, Misdirection, and Indirection 411

Section XI: Naval Warfare 413

CHAPTER 45
How to Cheat on Naval Tonnage Treaty Limits 19191939 415

CHAPTER 46
Harwood and the First Deception of WWII, 1939 421

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Section XII: Air War 423

CHAPTER 47
MiG SweepOperation BOLO 425

CHAPTER 48
Aerial Deception since the Second World War 433

CHAPTER 49
Detection of the B-2 Bomber and a Brief History on Stealth 435
Scouting for Surveillance 435
Detection of the B-2 Stealth Bomber and a Brief History on Stealth 435
Overview of stealth technology 435
Potential vulnerabilities 436
The Roke Manor system 437
A natural technological progression 438
Military consequences 439

Section XIII: Ground War: Theory and Practice 441

CHAPTER 50
Night Action by Gideon at MorehPerhaps 1249 B.C. 443

CHAPTER 51
BCTP: Be Unpredictable, Take RisksOr Lose 447

CHAPTER 52
The Monkeys Paw 455

CHAPTER 53
1st Cav in Desert StormDeception, Firepower and Movement 459
Ground War: U.S. Training for Conventional Field Combat 465
Introduction 465

CHAPTER 54
Deception Operations in REFORGER 88 467

CHAPTER 55
Voices in the Sand: Deception Operations at the NTC 475

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CHAPTER 56
OPFOR Counterreconnaissance at the National Training Center 483

Section XIV: Economic Warfare 487

CHAPTER 57
The Farewell Dossier: Duping the Soviets 489
The Farewell Dossier 489
Soviet S&T Espionage 490
US Computer Export Policy 491
Strong Suspicions and Skepticism 492
Presidential Interest 492
A Defector in Place 493
Interest in Technology Transfer 493
A Deception Operation 494
National Security Directive 494
Good-by to Farewell 495
An Important Contribution 495
Notes 495

Section XV: Cost Effectiveness 497

CHAPTER 58
The One Percent Solution: Costs and Benefits of Military Deception 499

Section XVI: When Your Deception Plan is Compromised: Plan B 531

CHAPTER 59
Battle of the Gothic Line, 25 Aug 1944: Operation OLIVE 533

Section XVII: When Deception Backfires 537

CHAPTER 60
Polyakovs Run 539
Act One 540
Top Hat 541
Red Herring? 541
Act Two 542
Act Three 543

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Section XVIII: Detecting Deception: When Detective Meets Deceiver 545

CHAPTER 61
Counterintelligence (CI) vs. Counterespionage (CE) 547

CHAPTER 62
Counter-Deception Planning 551
Counter-Deception Planning: Methodologies 551
The Nature of a Counter-Deception System 551
Seat-of-the-Pants Counter-Deception Methods 552
Detection of Deception: Three Theories 553
Reconstructive Inference 553
Testing for Signals and Sprignals 554
Incongruity Testing 558
Guarding Against Expectation, Self-Deception, and Commitment 564
Vulnerability Assessment 567
Countermeasures 568
Notes 570

Conclusion 577
A Cultural Handicap? 577
The Erosion of Strategy and Stratagem 578
Competent Commanders are Good Deceivers 579
More Deception is Coming 579

Glossary of Terms Relating to Deception 581

About the Editors 583

xvi The Art and Science of Military Deception