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Rabobank International
The Next Investment Wave
Food & Agribusiness
Research and Advisory
Rabobank expects a new wave of investment opportunities in renewable
clara.van.der.elst@rabobank.com energy in the Netherlands to start around 2014. Solar PV, offshore wind,
+31 30 71 24507 onshore wind and co-firing biomass are forecast to be the technologies
paul.bosch@rabobank.com
+31 30 71 24439 benefitting most from an increased stimulus for renewable energy. We
calculate the additional investment required to reach the agreed renewables
www.rabotransact.com target for 2020 to be EUR 24 billion, which is on top of the EUR 12 billion that
would be spent under a business as usual scenario. Of the additional
investments, solar PV accounts for the majority with EUR 13 billion, offshore
Contents wind would require EUR 7 billion, and onshore wind and biomass co-firing
Something has to change 1 would each account for EUR 2 billion of investment.
Why is the Netherlands
lagging? 2 The driver for the new investment wave will be the clear deviation of
The need for additional progress against the 2020 target for renewables, which should become
renewable energy evident in 2013. Based on Rabobanks calculations, the Netherlands is set to
investment 7 miss its 2020 targets for renewables: at current rates of investment
Investments required under renewable energy is forecast to represent just 9 percent of energy output by
the accelerated investment 2020, compared with a target of 14 percent.
scenario 9
Barriers to the accelerated The deviation of progress against the 2020 target will, in our view, trigger a
investment scenario 10 number of responses to address current barriers to renewables: ineffective
Conclusion 11 policies, removal of support for wind, and a lack of progress on energy
Appendix 12 efficiency. We believe the government will recast renewable energy policies
around 2014, due to the EU increasing pressure on member states that are
lagging behind renewable energy goals, more vocal public support for
renewable energy, and cost declines in renewables equipment resulting from
technological and scale advances.
The main policy instrument to enable the Netherlands to achieve this target is the SDE (+)3.
Rabobanks analysis concludes that the SDE (+) has not been very effective, and largely as
a result, we forecast that without any change in the policy approach, renewable energy
generation will be stuck at 9 percent of the energy mix in 2020. We see 2014 as a potential
tipping point for Dutch renewables, as the gap between actual and targeted progress will by
then become very clear, and political changes in combination with lower costs will create a
new wave of investment opportunities. Offshore wind, onshore wind and solar appear to be
the best placed technologies to capitalise on the next investment wave. A greater use of
biomass will also be required to achieve the target, although whether this is the right choice
for the long-term remains to be seen.
1
A.o. from Napels, Italy
2
Of which 50 percent is deemed to be
of organic origin and thus renewable
3
Stimuleringsregeling Duurzame
Energie
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
Rabobank has modelled three scenarios to assess different renewable energy investment
outcomes for 2020:
The Dutch National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP), which was the original
plan for renewable energy investment;
A business as usual scenario, which projects forward to 2020 the levels and
patterns of renewable energy investment seen to date;
And an accelerated investment scenario, based on a concerted effort to reach the
2020 target, starting in 2014.
Other 1 Geothermal
4
Biomass 23 Solar 1
Onshore
wind 16
Biofuels 10
Biogas 10
Offshore
wind 30
Heatpumps
5
Source: ECN Renewable Energy Projections as Published in the National
Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States, 2011
5
Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving/
ECN Sep 2011 Effecten van het
kabinetsbeleid voor Milieu en Klimaat;
http://www.pbl.nl/publicaties/2011/eff
ecten-van-het-kabinetsbeleid-voor-
milieu-en-klimaat.
The SDE(+) policies result in a relatively slow building rate: the combined SDE subsidies for
renewable energy build under the 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 programs amounted to only
EUR 80 million (see Figure 5), while the total cumulative budget -covering the lifetime
subsidies of projects granted- amounts to EUR 9 billion. Figure 6 displays the differences
between budgeted, planned and realized capacity over recent years, where a significant
amount of budgeted capacity has already been withdrawn. As projects granted in a given
year generally have a three to five year time limit in which they need to be built, we
estimate that a further share of this pipeline will fail to be realised.
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2008 2009 2010 2011
Total budget available Total annual spend for SDE projects
Source:AgentschapNL annual reports SDE, 2009-2011
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2008 2009 2010
Completed Forecast realisation Out of the pipeline
Source: AgentschapNL annual report SDE 2009-2011; Rabobank, 2012
Biomass
Biomass has attracted the lions share of funding, but at levels that preclude profitability,
hence creating a sizeable gap between intended and realised renewables capacity.
Onshore
wind 12 Offshore
wind 0
Hydropower
0
Solar PV 8
Other 0
Heat pumps
0
Geothermal
1
Biomass 79
Source:Rabobank, 2012
Costs for the co-feedstocks that are used in manure co-digestion (for biogas), such as corn,
have risen over the years. Rabobank calculates a cost per KWh for biogas generated
electricity of EUR 0.14-0.20, assuming agricultural manure co-digested on a 50-50 basis
with grains. Rabobank believes that a large majority of the SDE+ 2011 biogas and green
gas projects have tendered for and been granted support at too low a level to be financially
viable. As a result these projects will not be realised, leaving another gap in the build-out.
Onshore wind
The onshore wind category is responsible for the biggest chunk of the gap between
budgeted and completed renewable energy projects; we estimate a gap of around 1250 MW
spread over the 2008 to 2010 SDEs. A few elements are at play here. We believe the main
reason for the delays is the Not In My BackYard (NIMBY) opposition that can arise on a
provincial, town council or residential level. This is of course also related to the high
population density of the Netherlands. Only 52 percent6 of approved onshore wind projects
are actually built, measured from the stage when land has been secured.
Furthermore, the price-tendered structure of the 2011 SDE+ carries a disadvantage for
onshore wind project developers, who can only apply after obtaining a building permit. The
substantial costs for the permit application need to be incurred before taking a chance on
success in the funding round.
Finally, the fixed limit of 2200 maximum production hours that will be subsidized is also
counterproductive for onshore wind. This issue is expected to be addressed in the 2012
SDE+.
Offshore wind
Offshore wind has effectively been sidelined in the process. Offshore wind had its own
dedicated category within the SDE in 2009. Since then the original NREAP target of 5GW of
offshore wind by 2020 has been dropped by the government, which deemed this too
6
Calculated by Bosch en Van Rijn for expensive. While offshore wind costs have not yet declined much, we believe these will do
Netherlands Wind EnergyAssociation so on the back of scale increases7. In addition, the delays caused by the NIMBY-effect in
7
Rabobank Reaching 10c/Kwh and
BNEF/Rabobank Foundations for onshore wind underline the need for offshore wind in the energy mix.
Growth Nov 2011
8
KEMA/ECN; Solar PV
http://www.kema.com/nl/news/pressr
oom/press- Rabobank expects significant growth in solar. In the 2011 SDE+, small scale solar was not
releases/2011/Particuliere_zonnestroo supported. However, residential solar PV is now proving financially viable for residential use
m_in_Nederland_kan_in_2020_vervee without subsidies8. The reasons are twofold. In the past few years solar panel costs have
rtigvoudigen.aspx
9
National Renewable Energy Action o Biomass already represents the vast majority of supply
Plan NL p. 109 At the moment10, biomass accounts for 75 percent of the total renewable
10
Agentschap NL, May 2012,
energy share. Developing a mix of energy technologies would diversify
Statusdocument bio-energie 2011:
http://www.agentschapnl.nl/nieuws/st supply and increase energy security.
ructurele-groei-productie-bio-energie-
zet-door
Figure 8: Cost of renewable electricity production versus wholesale electricity prices, 2007-2020f
EUR/MWh
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Onshore Wind Offshore Wind
Solar pV NL Wholesale electricity price (base load)
Source:CBS, Rabobank, 2012
We have included technologies in which we believe a catch-up effort is still possible, both in
a planning and a financial sense. For the categories not described below, we have assumed
no difference between the business as usual and the accelerated investment scenario. We
expect the following developments:
Solar PV
We assume a rise in installed panels from around 110MWp currently to 16GWp per 2020.
This is achieved by an above 100 percent growth rate between 2012-16, declining to 30
percent in 2020. We believe this will be possible given the low starting point in the
Netherlands relative to other European countries. For instance, Germany installed 7GW
alone in 2011. We expect residential solar to pick up as people understand that acceptable
returns are now possible on the back of low panel prices without subsidies. As panel prices
decline and support for renewable energy becomes more substantial, we expect policy to
become more favourable towards commercial PV and we forecast commercial solar to take
off in the Netherlands from the middle of this decade. We believe commercial PV will be
financed by project finance and corporate financing.
Offshore wind
Despite the recent government withdrawal, we believe offshore wind will come back to the
table, as there are no alternatives to large-scale renewables deployment. Timelines for
developing offshore wind are long, however, and apart from subsidies, it will probably be
necessary to adjust planning permissions to achieve the additional 1.7 GW of offshore wind
that we forecast. This would bring the total offshore wind capacity to 2.7 GW by 2020. An
additional reason for including offshore wind in the mix is the high Dutch industrial expertise
in this field, currently mostly put to work in the UK and German markets. Offshore wind will
be 100 percent commercial, and financing will take place via project finance, vendor finance
and a declining share of corporate financing.
Onshore wind
We forecast only a slight increase in onshore wind from a cumulative installed capacity of
3.3GW in the business as usual scenario to 4.8GW in the accelerated investment scenario.
The low rate of additional growth is because we expect siting to remain a difficult process.
Our forecast under the accelerated investment scenario is lower than other market
watchers. To achieve 4.8GW by 2020 we raised our annual granted capacity from roughly
200MW to 600 MW by 2013 and increased the success rate to 75 percent from 2014
onwards. We see project finance as the main financing tool in onshore wind, representing
70 percent of total.
By technology, the associated investment levels are a total of EUR 16 billion for solar, EUR
13 billion more than under the business as usual scenario; EUR 10 billion for offshore wind,
of which EUR 7 billion is additional to the business as usual level; EUR 2 billion for onshore
wind, all of which is additional; and EUR 3 billion for biomass, including EUR 1.7 billion
additional (see Figure 10).
Figure 10: Annual investments under realistic and accelerated investment scenario, 2014 vs. 2016,
2018 and 2020
EUR billion
5
0
Biomass
Biomass
Biomass
Biomass
Solar PV
Solar PV
Solar PV
Solar PV
Onshore wind
Offshore wind
Onshore wind
Offshore wind
Onshore wind
Offshore wind
Onshore wind
Offshore wind
2014 2016 2018 2020
Business as usual Accelerated investment
Source: Rabobank, 2012
All in all, we expect project finance to provide EUR 15 billion of financing, (utility or
commercial) corporate to provide EUR 7 billion, equipment vendors EUR 1 billion and private
residents EUR 11 billion (for solar PV). Estimated financing requirement by type for each of
the four technologies for the total amount required under the accelerated investment
scenario is charted in Figure 11.
Two things should be kept in mind in considering the investment numbers. The costs are
expenses that will be put forward by renewable energy investors, not the government. In
addition, comparing the required investment outlays does not say much about the costs per
KWh of the actual energy produced: these are affected by the expected lifetime of the
facility, the efficiency rate, the actual location etc. For instance, a wind turbine has a 15-
year lifespan, while a solar panel roughly doubles that. For simplicity, we have assumed
required capital expenditure costs to remain stable, except for solar, where we have
assumed a 50 percent decrease between 2011 and 2020.
With regard to the associated subsidies, we forecast the total annual cash outlay will rise
from the current level with EUR 350 million in 2013 to EUR 3 billion in 2020. This is the
combined amount for business as usual and accelerated investments. We believe a large
amount of the unspent cumulative EUR 9 billion budget from the 2008-2011 period is still
Figure 11: Estimated total financing requirements to 2020accelerated investment plus business
as usual scenarios
EUR billion
Cor
Offshore
Cor
Onshore
0.8
wind
Total financing 3.2
wind
Ven
0.9
Cor
7.0 Res Pro
Pro 6.9
11.2
2.7
Cor Pro
0.5 0.4
Pro
Biomass
4.7
Solar
Pro
14.7
Res
11.1 Cor
2.5
Residential Project finance Corporate Vendor
Source: Rabobank, 2012
Macro-economics
Like most other eurozone members, the Netherlands is affected by the financial crisis and
has put severe austerity measures in place. The Netherlands will see elections in September
as the previous government fell over proposed budget cuts. An increased budget for
renewable energy subsidies therefore would likely have to come at the expense of other
government expenditures. However, although budgets from previous subsidy rounds since
2008 have largely remained unspent, we believe subsidies for projects still in the pipeline
are included in the budget. When freed, as projects fail to get built within the required
timeframe, these funds could be put to use. In addition, compared to some other countries,
energy consumers in the Netherlands still only pay a relatively small amount towards
supporting renewable energy directly, although this is scheduled to change by 2013.
Conclusion
Although it will be challenging, we believe there still is a window in which the Netherlands
can come close to meeting its 2020 renewable energy target. Under our accelerated
investment scenario the technology winners will be solar PV, offshore wind, onshore wind
and biomass. We expect project finance, utility or commercial corporate finance and private
persons to provide the majority of financing required.
Figure 13: Budgeted, approved and actual capacity and actual annual government subsidies
SDE 2008 2009 2010
Budgeted (EUR million) 1,459 8,201 2,126
Budgeted (MW)* 651 1,634 611
Approved (MW)** 151 1,218 602
Completed (MW) 126 119 18
Delta budgeted - realised (MW) -525 -1,515 -593
Of which offshore wind (MW) 0 600 0
Of which still planned, excluding offshore wind (MW) 25 499 584
Actual subsidies (EUR million) in 2010 for SDE realised MW in
15 8 0
2008-2010
* Based on an average cost per technology per MW
** Excludes withdrawn projects
Source: Agentschap NL annual reports 2009-2011; Rabobank analysis, 2012
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