Future of the Global Seafood Industry

Opportunity Platforms for the Irish Seafood

Sector
November 2014
Table of Contents

Drivers of change shaping the

future of the global seafood 7
industry
Background to the future
scenarios for the global seafood 18
industry
Future scenarios for the global
seafood industry over the 26
next five to 10 years
The platforms for growth 51
- Building Trust Chains 55
- Optimising health for all 67
- New life for long life 79
- New value in old places 91
- Modular mealtimes 103

Context: Perspectives on the

115
future of packaging and retail
About this report

This report explores the future of the global seafood

industry and the opportunities this presents for the
Irish seafood sector over the next five to 10 years. It
has been produced in association with The Futures
Company.
The report is based on an analysis of the macro-, meso- and micro-level
trends influencing the future of the industry. Our understanding of
these trends have been informed by expert interviews, consumer and
market data, and qualitative insight. In addition, a set of scenarios
looking at the future of the global seafood industry were developed
which look at how some of the key uncertainties shaping the future of
the industry might play out.

Futures techniques have been used to identify and explore potential

opportunities as drivers of change, and to see how they combine to
influence the future of seafood in different ways. The report highlights
opportunities in 10 key markets: the US, the UK, Ireland, Germany,
France, Spain, Brazil, Japan, Russia and China.

The purpose of this report is to help Irish seafood companies to identify

new opportunities for adding value to the category across a range of
potential future scenarios impacting the global seafood industry.

2014 3
Irelands seafood opportunity

Ireland is a currently a small actor in the

burgeoning global seafood industry, and its
seafood sector is highly fragmented.
However Ireland benefits from its location
within rich fishing grounds and is leading
the way in sectors such as organic
aquaculture and sustainable fishing.
The expansion of the global population, and
increased consumption of seafood bodes well
for the future of industry the critical
challenge will be to create dependable
supplies of well-managed product.
For the Irish seafood sector, a growing
potential export market, coupled with
increasing demand for more sustainably
sourced fish, presents significant
opportunities for future growth.

2014 4
The project charter: What we set out to explore

How will consumer attitudes to, and consumption, of seafood

change over the next 10 years?

What opportunities for growth and innovation will this present

the Irish seafood sector in both domestic and key export
markets? And how can Bord Bia help to take advantage of these
opportunities?

2014 5
The project process
Stage 1: Scanning
Understand how the
landscape is evolving
Over 70 key global consumer
shifts and industry-shaping
drivers of change were
identified, likely to impact on
the seafood industry globally.
2014
Stage 2: Exploring
Explore how the future
uncertainties play out
Developed and tested a set
of scenarios to explore how
the global seafood industry
could develop as a result of
the drivers of change.
Stage 3: Unlocking
Identify opportunity areas
for Irish seafood companies
Identified the key opportunity
areas for the Irish seafood
sector and actionable
implications for Irish
producers and processers.
6
Drivers of change shaping the future of the global seafood
industry

2014 7
The future of the global seafood industry will be impacted by
drivers of change across a diverse range areas

Macro-Economic & Political Social & Demographic Health & Wellbeing Environment & Ethics

Science & Technology Retail & Consumer Seafood Industry Food Consumption

2014 8
These drivers of change were identified through interviews
and a review of evidence

Stakeholder interviews Expert interviews Reviewed evidence sources

1. Dermot Hurst, The Marine Institute 1. Marie-Christine Monfort, Sea Matters Bord Bia, BIM and Department of
Agriculture, Food & the Marine, Marine
2. Pat Connors, Marine Harvest 2. Monica Jain, Fish 2.0 Institute publications
3. Sean Gavin, Irish Seaspray 3. Bryan Roberts, Kantar Retail
Euromonitor
4. Peter OSullivan Green, Shellfish de la 4. Michael Griffiths, TNS China
Mer 5. Simon Wright, Organic and Fair Plus FAO, UN, World Bank
5. Donal OSullivan, Castletownbere Consulting
Coop Industry websites such as Undercurrent
6. Alexander Weaver, AWF Consulting
News, Fish Update
6. Paul Reenan, John West 7. Dr. Torger Brresen, Technical
7. Jason Whooley, BIM University of Denmark The Futures Company consumer trends
8. Dr. Cecil Beamish, Assistant knowledge bank
8. Andy Mulloy, Connemara Seafoods
Secretary, Department of Agriculture, Global Energies
9. Susan Steele, SFPA MacroDynamics
Food and the Marine
10. Ken Ecock, Oceanpath Proprietary drivers

Previous Bord Bia project work

This process surfaced 69 drivers - 31 of which were rated as high priority in terms of their impact
on the seafood industry globally.

2014 9
These are the 31 drivers of change rated as a high priority
for the seafood industry
1 Growing disposable incomes in emerging markets
2 Rising and more volatile fish prices
3 Increasing scope of fishing regulations
4 Growth of high-end and premium seafood
5 Rising consumer awareness about healthy nutrition
6 Growing demand for traceability and transparency
7 Increasing desire for convenience
8 Depleting wild fish stocks
9 Growing exports of cheaper farmed fish from emerging markets
10 Rising oil prices
11 Growing Population: 7 billion mouths to feed
12 Rapid aging of the global population
13 Growing concern about processed foods and additives
14 Stagnant to moderate growth in Europe
15 Growing concern about the negative environmental impact of consumption
16 Growth of climate change impacts and extreme weather
17 Rising levels of sea pollution
18 Rise of quantified self and data driven diets
19 Development of unconventional protein sources
20 Growing development of aquaculture technologies
21 Development of marine biotechnology
22 Continuing challenge of cold chain distribution from Ireland
23 Growing consolidation of the global seafood industry
24 Growing resurgence of from scratch cooking
25 Increasing sophistication of food culture
26 The rising popularity of supplements and nutraceuticals
27 Growing interest in 'mood food'
28 Continuing negative attitudes towards fish preparation
29 New retail models combining foodservice
30 Growing influence of NGOs
31 Growth of fast casual foodservice

2014 10
The interrelationships were then mapped to identify which
drivers are most important and most uncertain

High Growing disposable incomes in emerging
markets
Increasing sophistication of food culture Rising consumer awareness about healthy
nutrition
Key:
Importance Growing influence of NGOs
Stagnant to moderate growth in Europe Depleting wild fish stocks
(Dominance) Increasing desire for convenience Important drivers
Growing Population: 7 billion mouths to Growing development of aquaculture
feed Increasing scope of fishing regulations
technologies that are more
Rapid aging of the global population Growing exports of cheaper farmed fish from
certain to happen
Rising levels of sea pollution emerging markets

Rising oil prices Rising and more volatile fish prices

Growing concern about processed foods and Important drivers
additives that are less
Medium Continuing negative attitudes towards Growing consolidation of the global The rising popularity of supplements and certain to happen
fish preparation seafood industry nutraceuticals
Importance
Growth of climate change impacts and Growth of fast casual foodservice Growing resurgence of from scratch
extreme weather cooking
Growth of high-end and premium
seafood Growing demand for traceability and
transparency
Growing concern about the negative
environmental impact of consumption
Development of marine biotechnology
Development of unconventional protein
sources

Low New retail models combining foodservice Growing interest in 'mood food Rise of quantified self and data driven diets
Importance Continuing challenge of cold chain
distribution from Ireland

Low Uncertainty Medium Uncertainty High Uncertainty

2014 11
Our analysis suggests that some of the changes impacting
the industry have greater levels of certainty attached

The demand for protein will grow as the worlds population

increases
The world's population will increase from 7 billion today to 8 billion in
2025, with most growth in developing countries.1
World per capita fish food consumption is projected to reach 20.6kg in
2022, up from nearly 19kg in 2010-12.2
Emerging markets will become more important consumers and
producers of seafood
In 2010, only one in four middle-class households were in Asia.
However, by 2020 it is predicted that Asia could hold over half of the
worlds middle-class population, accounting for more than 40% of
global middle-class consumption.3
Growing aquaculture production in emerging markets such as Chile and
China have increased exports from these competitor markets and put
downward pressure of fish prices.
Resource constraints will increase reliance on aquaculture
During the last three decades, world aquaculture production increased
from 5 million to 63 million tonnes. By 2030, aquaculture is projected
to supply over 60% of fish destined for direct human consumption.4

Source: 1. UN World Population Prospects 2013 2. FAO 3. World Bank 3. OECD 4. World Bank

2014 12
Climate change is already creating new threats, and new
opportunities, for the seafood industry globally

New threats
A report published in May 2014 by the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) highlighted the growing threat of
climate change and ocean acidification to marine resources.
The IPCC estimate that the total loss of landings to global
fisheries by 2050 due to climate change range from EUR 12.5
billion to EUR 30.1 billion, based on a global warming scenario
of 2 degrees.1
The impact of climate change will not be felt equally around the
world. In high latitudes, fishery yields are likely to increase by 30
70% but fall 40 60% in the Tropics and Antarctica.1
New opportunities
Climate change is already changing the distribution of some wild
marine species, creating new opportunities for some markets.
For example, since 2001 there has been a dramatic increase in
landings of boarfish in Ireland as the species has moved
northwards due to rising sea temperatures. 2

Source: 1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report 2014

Source 2. MCCIP Report Impacts of climate change on fisheries
2014 13
Fuel costs will continue to increase, potentially benefiting
Irelands domestic processors

Rising oil prices will continue to put pressure on the global

industry
Growing demand from emerging markets and declining oil
production in key regions is driving fuel price increases, and
there is a growing consensus that the age of cheap oil is coming
to an end.1
With doubt over whether renewables will grow fast enough to fill
this gap, the most likely scenario will be one of increasing
competition for oil, higher prices, and volatile supply.
This could make it more economical to land in Ireland
This presents the Irish industry with an opportunity. As the Irish
Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine noted in Food
Harvest 2020, 88% of the fish caught in the Irish Exclusive
Economic Zone is by non-Irish vessels.2
As a result, the growing price of fuel suggests it will be more
advantageous for more non-Irish vessels to land in Ireland than
in their home countries, which if available for sale in Ireland
would benefit domestic processors.2

1. Economist End of the Oil Age (2013) 2. Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine, Food Harvest 2020

2014 14
The expanding scope of fishing regulation means that
resource management will continue to be high on the agenda

Concern about fish stock volumes has led to continuing

restrictions on fishing quotas in the European Union (EU),
although there have been small increases in quotas for some
species.
New EU regulations means that the scientific community will
play a greater role in setting quotas. Under the reforms to the
Common Fisheries Policy passed in 2013, ministers will in future
be required to adhere to advice from conservation scientists
when setting quotas. The reforms also banned fish discards
the practice of throwing back fish caught in excess of their
quota. 1
In addition, new marketing rules will ensure that consumers are
better informed about the fish they buy, by requiring that labels
give more details of the catch area or the type of gear used.2
Growing regulatory pressure, coupled with increasing fish prices
are making the seafood industry more attractive to merger and
acquisition (M&A) activity, increasing the consolidation within
the industry - albeit from a relatively low baseline.

Sources: 1. The Guardian 18/12/13 EU fish quotas rise in line with sustainable reforms 2. The Fish Site 11/12/13, New sustainable Common Fisheries Policy to come into force in January 2014

2014 15
There are however many industry-related uncertainties that
could significantly impact the future of the seafood industry

Speed of consolidation in the seafood industry

The global seafood industry is still composed of a large number of
small-scale players. The increasing price of fish is however making
investment in the seafood industry more attractive.
The global seafood industry witnessed steady M&A activity between
2010 and 2013. During this period, over 164 buyers announced and
completed 212 deals.1
Speed of adoption of new aquaculture technologies
The systems and technology used in aquaculture has developed rapidly
over the last fifty years. The costs of new technologies such as
recirculating aquaculture systems are falling, and there is growing
interest in closed-containment aquaculture on land. However there is
current uncertainty over its commercial viability.2
Development of marine biotechnology
The growing focus on securing a sustainable supply of food is catalysing
investment in the marine biotechnology sector and there is increasing
interest in the applications of marine biotechnology across medical,
pharmaceutical, aquaculture, nutraceuticals and industrial sectors.
However marine biotechnology market is still in a nascent stage and
accounts for a tiny percentage of the overall biotechnology market.3
Source: 1. M&A International 2. FishUpdate.com Land-farmed salmon not commercially viable 4. European Science Foundation

2014 16
The evolution of consumer attitudes towards seafood over
the next decade is also uncertain

Levels of consumer trust in the seafood industry

Repeated food safety scares are having a damaging effect on
consumers trust in food retailers globally; scandals in one category
impact on others following the horsemeat scandal trust in food
producers dropped by 24% in the UK.1
Concern about processed foods and additives
Greater knowledge about the health impacts of additives means
consumers are looking for more natural foods. 66% of Europeans worry
about the presence of colours, preservatives and flavourings in their
food.2
Awareness about healthy nutrition
Global health and wellness sales are expected to rise steadily and hit a
record high of US$1 trillion by 2017.3 Over the last few decades,
seafood has enjoyed a profile as healthy food. However rising levels of
sea pollution may impact negatively on its health image.
Attitudes towards scratch cooking
There has been a resurgence in the number of people cooking meals at
home in developed markets as a response to constrained disposable
incomes and a rediscovery of the joy of cooking. However the
continuing need for convenience means consumers will want shortcuts.
Sources: 1.Which? 2. European Food Safety Authority 3. Euromonitor International

2014 17
Background to the future scenarios for the global seafood
industry

2014 18
Scenario planning techniques have long been used to help
navigate uncertainty
1960s 1970s 1990s 2010

Herman Kahn Royal Dutch Shell Andy Grove Stan Sthanunathan

a military strategist who becomes one of the first who played a critical role Head of Research and
analysed the likely corporations to embrace in Intels success was Insight at Coke highlights
consequences of nuclear scenario planning famed for his focus on the importance of looking
war and went on to techniques and business strategic inflection points to the future in his AdMap
become one of the analysts credit this with I'm a great believer in article Dont explain the
preeminent futurists of creating significant particularly being alert to past, predict the future.
the 20th century, competitive advantage changes that change He argues that research
predicting the rise of for the company something, anything, by should revolve around
Japan as a super power an order of magnitude, anticipating new
and developing many of and nothing operates opportunities, using
todays scenario planning with the factors of 10 as innovative approaches
techniques profoundly as the and turning insights into
Internet action now

2014 19
One reason why it is difficult to tell the future is that trends
often collide in unexpected ways

A trend is a trend is
a trend until it bends
(Ged Davis, Shell)

!?
?!?

2014 20
And the further out you go, the more uncertainty there is to
deal with

Uncertainty

Scenarios
(5 to 10 yrs)

Trends
(3 to 5 yrs)

Insight
(1 to 2 yrs)

Predictability
Time
2014 21
Scenarios provide one way of coping with this uncertainty
through identifying the interrelationships between drivers of change

Process Outline
The Future Landscape

The Landscape Today

The process pushes thinking away from a linear view of the future by
considering how trends converge to create more divergent outcomes

2014 22
We used a set of axes to encapsulate the range of
uncertainties in the drivers

The scenarios are constructed out of a set of 2x2 axes. Each axes is designed to
encapsulate a key future uncertainty, and by combining the axes, we are able to identify
four potential future scenarios shaping the future.

PRIORITIZED DRIVERS

Scenario 1 Scenario 2

Scenario 3 Scenario 4

2014 23
The actual future is likely to include elements of all of the
scenarios

SCENARIO 1 SCENARIO 2

Actual
future

SCENARIO 3 SCENARIO 4

2014 24
The scenario axes: What makes a good set of scenarios

1. They do not collapse:

Distinct stories emerge in each space and we can
The test of good scenarios
explain why something happens in one but not the is not getting the future
other
right... The real test of a
2. They reflect the overall mix of uncertain trends good scenario is: did I
The trends are clustered largely into 2 mutually
exclusive groups
make better choices as a
result of having looked at
3. They create rich and usable narratives around the
future and understood both my
The stories feel different from today or, push us to own environment better
greater extremes
and the consequences of

They allow us to identify granular perspectives on
different aspects of the core question my actions?
4. They help to identify emerging strategic issues Peter Schwartz, Global Business Network
Strategic questions about all aspects of the business
emerge from the strategic conversation about the
scenarios

2014 25
Future scenarios for the global seafood industry over the
next five to 10 years

2014 26
Future scenarios for the global seafood industry:
The consumer-focused axis

The prevailing consumer attitude

Functional Experiential
towards the benefits of seafood

This axis describes the attitudes of consumers towards the benefits of

eating seafood versus other protein sources

On the left hand side of the axis, the focus is on the benefit of
seafood to be convenient. Seafood is perceived to be just another
source of protein with little differentiation, as its status as a healthy
food is under greater competition from other categories. As a result
consumers want their seafood to convenient with enhanced health
benefits, and affordable.

On the right hand side of the axis, the focus is on the benefit of
seafood as an experiential food seafood is perceived to be a
superior source of protein with its own distinct benefits and rituals
of consumption compared to other proteins. As a result consumers
want their seafood to be an experience and are willing to pay more
for it. Consumers have relatively high levels of education and
interest.

2014 27
Future scenarios for the global seafood industry:
The seafood industry-focused axis

This axis describes the perceived nature of resource management

Managed

by the seafood industry

At the top end of the axis, the management of seafood resources by
the industry is perceived to be more managed than previously. This
is a result of regulation that has increased in scope and is more
Nature of resource management

tightly controlled, and growing consolidation of the seafood industry.

Aquaculture production is highly efficient, based on closed-loop
by the seafood industry

systems has little interaction with wild stocks. Public trust in the
seafood industry is high.

On the bottom end of the axis, the management of seafood

resources by the industry is perceived to be more unmanaged than
previously. This is because while regulation exists on paper, it is
ignored and circumvented by producers/processors - and this is
widely publicised by NGOs. The industry has become more regionally
fragmented as a result of volatile fish prices making the industry
Unmanaged

unattractive to investors. Aquaculture production is perceived to be

poorly managed with negative impacts on the surrounding
environment. Public trust in the seafood industry is low.

2014 28
Outline of scenarios on the future of the global seafood
industry
Managed

Scenario 1 Super Protein Scenario 2 Celebrating Seafood

People want a healthy, trusted protein People care about sustainability, and are
source they can rely on. In this world the looking for innovative ways of savouring
seafood industry adds value through seafood through developing new rituals
innovation that optimises health and builds and experimenting with a wide range of

Nature of resource management

trust. species and cooking techniques.

by the seafood industry

Functional

Experiential
The prevailing consumer attitude
towards the benefits of seafood

Scenario 3 Cheap Calories Scenario 4 Carefree Indulgence

People want protein that gives them what People want seafood that opens up new
they need with minimum expenditure of experiences and sensations, and they are
time and energy. In this world the seafood willing to pay for it. In this world, the
industry adds value through innovation seafood industry adds value by finding
that creates more product for less money. ways to source exotic species and creating
products that tantalise the senses.

Unmanaged

2014 29
Fuller description of the scenarios
Managed
Scenario 1 Super Protein
In response to the growing demand for a dependable supply of
protein, the global seafood industry has become focused on
achieving economies of scale through advanced
scientific/technological-led management of resources, catalysing
consolidation across international borders. The controlled
standardisation of the products available on the market means
seafood has become perceived by consumers as a trusted but
functional food competing with alternative, scientifically enhanced
Nature of resource management
sources of protein primarily on the basis of nutritional value.
Innovation in the industry is focused on better resource
by the seafood industry
management to optimise health and trust.
Functional
The prevailing consumer attitude
towards the benefits of seafood
Scenario 3 Cheap Calories
In response to growing pressure on the seafood industry to
rapidly increase the volume of raw material, the sector
industrialised globally at an unprecedented rate. Continued
fragmentation of the industry and the failure of regulation to
keep up with the speed of technological change means that the
global industry has become perceived externally as unmanaged,
compounded by the growing visibility of food safety scares. The
resulting decline of consumer trust accelerated the industrys
commoditisation, meaning that innovation in the industry is
focused on price and production efficiency.
Unmanaged
2014
Scenario 2 Celebrating Seafood
In response to growing consumer concern about the
management of fish resources globally, the global seafood
industry has become outwardly focused on managing
resources to increase the value of its products rather than
volume. The limitation on resources means that innovation is
focused on experiential value adds. High levels of consumer
engagement with the seafood category and a desire to protect
it as a resource means that the industry focus has shifted
from product to service, and as a result there is emphasis on
rituals that deepen the everyday experience of consuming
seafood.
Experiential
Scenario 4 Carefree Indulgence
In response to the development of increasingly sophisticated
food cultures as incomes rise in emerging markets, the global
seafood industry competes to supply at high volume exotic and
premium seafood products. This intense competition
exacerbates the unmanaged nature of the resource
management in the industry, which manifests in high levels of
fraud and product mislabelling in order to make resources go
further. Producers who are able to reliably source exotic
seafood can charge high prices, and as a result innovation is
focused on new ways of sourcing.
30
Scenario 1: Super Protein

People want a healthy, trusted protein source they can rely on. In this world the seafood
industry adds value through innovation that optimises health and builds trust.

seafood
I need to know that the
I eat will always be
good for my body and mind

2014 31
Scenario 1: Super Protein
People and Consumers
Headlines from the future As people became more conscious about the benefits of good Managed
health and wellbeing in the face of a growing lifestyle disease
epidemic globally, they looked for foods that demonstrated
Local councils serve enhanced nutritional and wellness benefits.
school kids fish-fingers The perceived healthiness of seafood meant that consumers

Nature of resource management by the seafood industry

with enhanced benefits to naturally gravitated to the category.
make them work harder Yet as concepts of health evolved, so too did consumer
30 August, 2017 expectations of the seafood category - people increasingly expected
seafood to be managed in a way that optimises its health benefits.
The result was that seafood marketed as healthy was no longer
New optimised seafood enough to keep consumers engaged people wanted seafood that
enhanced with micro- would reliably improve their brain health, their mood, their skin, their
fitness etc.
nutrients is named Super
Food of the year However the higher levels of standardisation in seafood production
and processing enabled by new technologies meant that seafood
19 May, 2018
became increasingly perceived by consumers as a functional source
of protein.
Consequently seafood increasingly had to compete against new
categories of alternative protein sources, such as supplements and
vegetable-based proteins.
Functional

The prevailing consumer attitude towards the benefits of seafood

2014 32
Scenario 1: Super Protein
Industry and Regulators
Headlines from the future Increasing pressure from governments and bodies such as the UN Managed
to create dependable supplies of protein in a world where food
security was quickly becoming a critical political issue, meant that
the seafood industry had to scale in a highly managed way that
would increase the reliability of supply.
Ireland named the Silicon
This catalysed greater consolidation in the industry, as well as the

Nature of resource management by the seafood industry

Valley of the seas development and investment in advanced technologies in
29 July, 2020 aquaculture.
The tightening scope of food industry health and quality regulation
meant that the seafood industry became better managed for
health as well as for sustainability.
New technology lets you This enabled the seafood industry to respond to growing
check the health status of consumer desire for enhanced nutritional benefits by better
fishes diets controlling what went into seafood and the conditions within which
it was produced.
17 June, 2016
The perception of tightly controlled regulation enabled people to
trust the industrys message that the growing use of genetic
modification was necessary in ensuring effective management of
limited resources.
Functional

The prevailing consumer attitude towards the benefits of seafood

2014 33
Scenario 1: Super Protein
Glimpses of the future today - INDUSTRY NEWS
A recent study by Bains and Company
generated a lot of publicity after it claimed
that health is the new wealth noting that
over the last decade there has been a
huge shift in peoples attitudes towards
health. The study found that people now
would readily trade premium medical care
for access to healthier living options, such
as more nutritious food, health education,
exercise and innovative healthcare
technologies
Functional
The prevailing consumer attitude towards the benefits of seafood
2014
Fish 2.0 is a competition that seeks to
promote new business models that drive
social and environmental change in the
seafood supply chain through use of
technology. The 2013 winners of the
competition included Blue Planet, who
have developed a breakthrough
recirculating aquaculture system
technology for inland production and
Cryoocyte, who have developed a novel
technology to cryopreserve fish eggs.
Managed
Nature of resource management by the seafood industry
In April 2014 a proposed Euro35 million
project was announced by an Irish-
Norwegian consortium to build one of the
worlds largest marine food ingredient
plants in south Donegal what has been
described as a game-changer by the
Irish Minister for Agriculture, Food and
the Marine Simon Coveney. The Minister
said that a sustainable and science-
based aquaculture would help to meet
increasing demand worldwide for high-
quality protein.
34
Scenario 1: Super Protein
Glimpses of the future today - PRODUCTS
Healthy ranges
French seafood company od
proposes to reinvent the way
salmon is consumed and aims
at introducing smoked salmon
to people not used to eating
seafood, particularly children
and young people. There are 5
ranges: classic, healthy (low-
salt, enriched with Omega 3),
perfumed (orange, pistachio,
fig or poppy), instant (blinis,
sashimi, half smoked or dice),
kids (nature, honey, strawberry
candy or bread fingers).
Functional
The prevailing consumer attitude towards the benefits of seafood
2014
Seafood burgers
Notoriously reluctant to
consume seafood products,
teenagers have been targeted
by the French frozen food
brand Iglo. To appeal to such
non-consumers and meet their
expectations, Iglo bets on more
playful wording. 3 products
have been designed: the big
cod, the big hake and the
fish and crock hake fried in
potato breadcrumbs.
Managed
Nature of resource management by the seafood industry
Fast healthy seafood Nutraceuticals and
In Spain seafood is not Omega 3 sprinkles
always regarded as In the supplements category,
convenient as it is not there has been an expansion
always easy to prepare. of sprinkles omega 3 that
However, recent can sprinkled over food, such
innovations in food service as seeds. In seafood
could change this La supplements specifically,
Lobsteria in Alcobenda, a Reckitt Benckiser is making its
suburb in Madrid, has debut in the 400m UK
introduced a new specialty vitamin, mineral and
of lobster rolls that it is supplement market with its
positioned as healthy fast MegaRed range of krill
food. capsules. Made with Antarctic
krill which RB claims is more
easily dispersed in the
stomach than fish oil and has
no fishy aftertaste.
35
Scenario 2: Celebrating Seafood
People care about sustainability, and are looking for innovative ways of savouring seafood
through developing new rituals and experimenting with a wide range of species and cooking
techniques.

need
Seafood is a resource that we
to take care of, so I try to
make my everyday consumption
of it an enjoyable experience

2014 36
Scenario 2: Celebrating Seafood
People and Consumers
Managed

Headlines from the future

Rising awareness of the depletion of seafood stocks led to an
environment where consumers looked for products that allow
seafood to be consumed in a sustainable and considered way,
Nature of resource management by the seafood industry

making the most of the resources available while protecting Irish Fishmongers Got Talent
species for the future. tops TV ratings on Saturday night
In this environment, consumers focused on savouring seafood, 14 June, 2016
keen to glean every little pleasure possible from each experience,
content with infrequent consumption to protect a resource they
valued highly.
As such, two distinct areas of demand emerged; for fresh whole Supermarkets hit as rising
seafood which could be artfully prepared and cooked, building on numbers of consumers choose to
culinary classes and seafood specific recipe collections, and for buy their fish from specialists
pre-prepared value-added products, which spoke to the desire for 18 November, 2015
provenance and authenticity but in a more convenient and time
efficient way.
Furthermore, seafood became a signifier of special occasions,
with new rituals developing around a wider range of sustainable
species. In many ways seafood took on an artisanal status, with
some being priced-out of regular consumption.

Experiential
The prevailing consumer attitude towards the benefits of seafood

2014 37
Scenario 2: Celebrating Seafood
Industry and Regulators
Managed

Headlines from the future

Consumers avoidance of scientifically enhanced seafood
production caused the industry to respond by focusing on
increasing the value of its limited natural resources through
new ways - using product innovation and supplementary
Nature of resource management by the seafood industry

90% of Irish fish can now be

services to heighten the experience.
traced back to the fisherman who
Management and regulation of the industry had a very caught it
sustainable agenda through the Common Fisheries Policy, and
19 August, 2018
worked to protect and safeguard resources to ensure the long
term future of seafood.
The marketing of seafood predominantly highlighted
provenance, telling the in-depth story of the brand and
harnessing label development to further the visibility of this Sales of pickled ginger double
narrative. Moreover, traceable technology was used to immerse as home-made sushi rises in
people in the life of seafood, providing micro-specific and popularity
distinct details. 8 June, 2017
Seafood brands found that products and services to
compliment and accompany consumption were popular, such
as specific beverages and serves to suit certain formats,
classes to teach how to prepare different species and
partnerships with chefs to develop innovative recipes.

Experiential
The prevailing consumer attitude towards the benefits of seafood

2014 38
Scenario 2: Celebrating Seafood
Glimpses of the future today - INDUSTRY NEWS
Managed
Nature of resource management by the seafood industry
It's been a few decades since we
started turning cooks into stars, and
still the phenomenon continues to
grow. These days, the Emerils,
Marios and Gordons of the world
scarcely need the qualifier chef
they are celebrities, plain and
simpleIn the Food Network era,
the phenomenon of the celebrity
chef has utterly transformed the
restaurant industry and, in the
process, changed the very nature of
how we eat.
2014
The World Fish Migration Day 2014
(WFMD) is a one day global
initiative, with local events
worldwide. It will be an annual
event set aside to commemorate the
migration of fish in our rivers, lakes
and oceans. It is meant to improve
the publics understanding of the
importance of open rivers and
migratory fish. Fish migration is very
important in maintaining the health
and productivity of rivers, lakes and
other aquatic ecosystems. This
years theme of the WFMD is
Connecting Fish, Rivers and
People
The prevailing consumer attitude towards the benefits of seafood
Experts yesterday claimed the horsemeat
scandal and the growing obesity crisis
had sparked a boom in "cooking from
scratch".
The economic crisis was also
encouraging Mums and Dads to
"rediscover" the kitchen, and try their
hands at making meals rather than buying
ready prepared processed food. In
general people are rediscovering the joy
of cooking. They have started making
their own food again and are now
realising it's not as hard as they may have
thought.
Experiential
39
Scenario 2: Celebrating Seafood
Glimpses of the future today - PRODUCTS
Managed
Nature of resource management by the seafood industry
Special occasions
Gifting is a huge part of
Chinese culture, especially
around holiday times (spring
festival, golden week).
Recently, online stores have
started to offer fresh
seafood gift boxes in limited
edition for the holidays.
2014
Enhancing the experience
With the rise of the sushi in the
last 15 years in France, brands
have enriched this meal
environment with new products.
Among them, Gingko has
created a drink dedicated to
sushi tasting. The packaging
itself borrows visual codes used
by sushi brands so the
attribution is immediate. Sweet
and slightly acid at the same
time, this lemon and ginger
flavored infusion is 100%
natural.
The prevailing consumer attitude towards the benefits of seafood
Making more of preparation
The Fish manufactory 1
is a new format of seafood
retail in Russia. It offers
specialist preparation and
serve of seafood, with a
friendly atmosphere, high
quality products (raw and
prepared), and
supplementary products like
lemons, dressing, olive oil
etc.
1,2,3 cooking
Paella is usually something that
is prepared and eaten fresh in
Spain, buying the ingredients
(mussel, shrimps, squid,
calamari) separately; for
seafood paella you also need a
good fish stock and proper
paella rice. This 1,2,3 paella is
targeted to consumers who
need everything ready-to-cook
(maybe also younger
consumers who dont know
how to prepare the cooking
process, which is quite tricky)
Experiential
40
Scenario 3: Cheap Calories
People want protein that gives them what they need with minimum expenditure of time and
energy. In this world the seafood industry adds value through innovation that creates more
product for less money.

seafood
I just want no fuss low cost
so I can get on with

my life.

2014 41
Scenario 3: Cheap Calories
People and Consumers
Functional

The prevailing consumer attitude towards the benefits of seafood

Nature of resource management by the seafood industry

Headlines from the future As people living in developed markets adapted to post-recession
life, the thrifty behaviours they learned during the hard times
stayed with them. In emerging markets, even as incomes rose,
people wanted to make sure they got more for their money.
Rise of group buying and bulk The focus of consumers globally therefore centred of finding cheap
buying of seafood to save money sources of protein, still with functional health benefits, that
30 October, 2017 required minimum fuss and guaranteed to go a long way.
As a result of growing mass production in the industry to meet
demand for cheap and convenient protein, seafood became viewed
by consumers as the chicken of the sea a mass produced and
processed food favoured as a quick, versatile and healthy
ingredient.
Supermarket launches own
However following a number of highly visible food safety scandals
brand of organic salmon
in the seafood industry, public trust in the seafood industry
17 August, 2016
reached new lows and seafoods status as healthy food is
questioned.
This led to a divided market characterised by the death of the
middle - where there was a small niche of premium seafood with
quality and origin as the main selling point, and mass
undifferentiated products sold on the basis of value.
Unmanaged

2014 42
Scenario 3: Cheap Calories
Industry and Regulators
Functional

The prevailing consumer attitude towards the benefits of seafood

Nature of resource management by the seafood industry

Headlines from the future
School serves mutant fish-
fingers to children
25 June, 2021
Food safety groups reveals that
smoked salmon claimed to be
from Scotland is actually from
China 27 July, 2015
The demand for higher volumes of cheaper seafood meant that
exports from emerging markets increased and canned seafood of
unknown origin became a more common sight on supermarket
shelves.
The rapid industrialisation of aquaculture globally meant that
regulation was often ignored, as it was perceived to be a burden
on business.
In the race to produce higher volumes of cheaper seafood, the
industry used cheap labour and genetic modification in both
fishmeal and in seafood a fast developing technology that
regulation could not come up with.
As the similarities between mass aqua farming and mass poultry
farming became more pronounced, NGOs increasingly started
targeting the industry on the basis of seafood welfare, likening
aquaculture to battery poultry farms.
Sensationalised exposes of the industry meant that a growing
niche of consumers called for retailers to stock certified free
range seafood.

Unmanaged

2014 43
Scenario 3: Cheap Calories
Glimpses of the future today - INDUSTRY NEWS
Functional
The prevailing consumer attitude towards the benefits of seafood
After horse meat has been found in
European frozen food products in
2013, all food brands had to face
consumers mistrust. To get this trust
back, French seafood company Fleury
Michon has integrated full transparency
into their processes. Fleury Michon
recently launched a communication
plan called #ComeAndCheck to
achieve transparency.
2014
Christian Rach, successful German TV
cook uncovered a fraud on his
documentary. In his TV show, Rach
usually helps troubled restaurants to
get back on their feet and advises
them. In June 2013 he was able to
uncover that the origin of the Bsum
North Sea Prawns was lied about. The
prawns were actually from aqua farms
in Indonesia.
Nature of resource management by the seafood industry
According to a new report by
the Environmental Justice
Foundation (EJF), a British-based
human rights charity, the Thai fishing
and seafood industry, worth $7
billion annually, involves
considerable exploitation of
trafficked migrant workers, most
from neighbouring Myanmar and
Cambodia.
Unmanaged
44
Scenario 3: Cheap Calories
Glimpses of the future today - PRODUCTS
Functional
The prevailing consumer attitude towards the benefits of seafood
Value fish spreads
The Swiss brand Coraya offers
fish sandwich spreads in
Germany. Germans passion for
seafood products has also
entered the breakfast meal.
Since smoked salmon is often
part of the first meal of the day,
but is rather expensive, these
sandwich spreads are not only
convenient in terms of time
management and taste, but
allow a taste of salmon every
morning.
2014
Breaded mystery seafood
Since fish fingers have a
controversial image nowadays
(regarding their ingredients),
companies try to create a
different image for them. Now
they are directly speaking to the
kids, by changing the shape
and making it more attractive
for children. The seals like the
WWF are speaking to parents
as well.
Seafood snacks
The Swiss brand Coraya
offers one of the few seafood
snacking products found in
Germany of seafood sticks
that come with a variety of
flavoured dips
Nature of resource management by the seafood industry
Shrimp flavoured
instant-noodles
Long a staple in China,
seafood flavoured instant
noodles have been
growing in developed
markets in Europe
Unmanaged
45
Scenario 4: Carefree Indulgence
People want seafood that opens up new experiences and sensations, and they are willing to
pay for it. In this world, the seafood industry adds value by finding ways to source exotic
species and creating products that tantalise the senses.

I love my seafood and it gives

me a thrill trying new things,
but I dont really care where it
comes from

2014 46
Scenario 4: Carefree Indulgence
People and Consumers

Experiential
The prevailing consumer attitude towards the benefits of seafood

The decline of fish stocks over previous decades meant that as Headlines from the future
seafood became rarer, it became more of a luxury a food that
Nature of resource management by the seafood industry

consumers sought out because of its value as a symbol of social

status.
A global emerging middle class eager to have new experiences The latest exotic seafoods
and display their newly gained social status catalysed growing spotted on supermarket shelves
consumer interest in exotic seafood. around the world
For the consumers that knew seafood was endangered, its 18 October, 2017
consumption was a guilty pleasure. However, many others were
simply not aware of the mismanagement of the industry due to
mislabelling.
The high cost of seafood meant that there was strong interest
among consumers in making products go further by adding Poll shows people feel more
sauces etc. As a result the industry shifted from marketing by guilty eating seafood than they
origin to marketing by recipe. do chocolate
The desire for seafood that denotes status meant organic 4 April, 2016
continued to be in demand, but the organic products on offer
contained as little raw material as possible and in some cases
organic products were subject to fraud and mislabelling.

Unmanaged
2014 47
Scenario 4: Carefree Indulgence
Industry and Regulators

Experiential
The prevailing consumer attitude towards the benefits of seafood

As international disputes over fishing rights became more Headlines from the future
frequent due to the changing migration patterns of fish caused by
Nature of resource management by the seafood industry

warmer sea temperatures, it became more difficult for the

industry to collaborate in ensuring regulatory compliance.
This meant that the growing consumer desire for exotic seafood I thought I was buying lobster but
helped fuel the expansion of often illegal seafood products run by it turned out to be a pumped
organised food cartels. prawn!
This increased fraudulent practices such as cheaper species 7 January 2016
being mis-sold as high value species.
In order to compete with the black market and meet demand for
more experiential offerings, the seafood industry therefore
focused on developing the aquaculture of exotic species.
The continued high cost of raw materials prompted greater
Man jailed for eating endangered
industry innovation in using technology to enhance the flavours caviar
and sensations of seafood. 27 March 2019
However poor aquaculture conditions and the increased use of
additives such as polyphosphate injections and colourings led to
a rise in incidence of seafood poisoning.

Unmanaged
2014 48
Scenario 4: Carefree Indulgence
Glimpses of the future today - INDUSTRY NEWS
Nature of resource management by the seafood industry
The Economist has recently reported a
rise in food crime, where organised
criminals have diversified into new
areas of activity including food. The
organised groups were reported as
mislabelling seafood and selling it on at
higher prices. Europol were cited as
saying that these organised gangs,
previously focused on selling drugs,
have switched to food as it is seen as
more profitable.
Unmanaged
2014
The prevailing consumer attitude towards the benefits of seafood
The rise of food tourism has been
reported on recently as a result of
growing foodie cultures, with lifestyle
magazines setting out new food
destinations. The Huffington Post
recently published an article on where
to get exotic types of seafood such as
sea slugs and seahorses noting that
there are now more seafood
connoisseurs eager to travel distances
to find these exotic species.
Experiential
Rakuten, Japan's Amazon.com, earned
the title as the world's leading online
trader of elephant ivory and whale
products, thanks to a report by an
influential UK NGO called Environmental
Investigation Agency (EIA). Rakuten have
recently announced they will stop selling
whale meat products.
49
Scenario 4: Carefree Indulgence
Glimpses of the future today - PRODUCTS
Nature of resource management by the seafood industry
The Amazon of seafood
Blue Sea Labs a US based
seafood company has been
referred to as the Amazon of
seafood in that it serves a fast
growing consumer base who
want specialties such as sea
urchins (that they are unable to
get locally) shipped directly to
their homes. By connecting
consumers directly to fish
producers the company is a
response to the growing desire
for exotic species, but
excluding the shady
middlemen.
Unmanaged
2014
The prevailing consumer attitude towards the benefits of seafood
Seafood for all dishes
Spanish fish and seafood
brand Krissina, taps into
the ready-to-cook
(processed, value added)
category, offering a
seafood-based spread that
can be used for preparing
cold starters or can be
used as a filling for hot
recipes, like filled red
peppers, etc. These kind of
products are new,
convenient and can be
used in a series of different
contexts.
Experimental sushi
For its new 2014 collection,
Sushi Shop in France
teamed up with the most
rewarded (Michelin stars)
in the world to design 7
new top-notch recipes
which goes along with the
premium positioning of the
brand. For example, the
Joel Robuchon Box sold
29.9 is made of 6
California Hawaan rolls, 6
crispy lobster spring rolls, 6
California spicy ebi rolls
and 2 snacked scallop
sushi.
Experiential
Be safe, buy imports
Andes Premium Catch is
Chinas first retail store
selling imported seafood to
open in Shanghai in 2012.
Growing concern with the
safety of domestic seafood
is fuelling interest in
imported seafood, and the
company offers free
cooking classes in
response to the growth of
home cooking that food
safety scandals has
catalysed.
50
 The Opportunity Platforms for Growth

2014 51
 Exploring opportunities for Irish seafood

The next section outlines a number of different

opportunities for the Irish Seafood industry in the
next five to 10 years, under five
platforms for growth: Building Trust Chains,
Optimising Health for All, New Life for Long Life,
New Value in Old Places, and Modular Mealtimes

These platforms and the opportunities within them have

emerged from an analysis of the key trends and
uncertainties shaping the future of the seafood industry,
and how they might combine to shape the future.

Some of the opportunities can be leveraged by companies

now. Others are further out, and require more investment
or engagement.

The longer term opportunities are more likely to depend on

the speed of technological change in the sector and
companies ability to harness it.

2014 52
What are Opportunity Platforms?

The scenarios give us an outline of the range of

certainties and uncertainties shaping the industry
globally, and an idea of how consumer preferences
may evolve in relation to seafood.
In order to be useful however, the Irish seafood sector
needs to be able to connect these scenarios to
opportunities for them to innovate and add value.

The following Opportunity Platforms are therefore themes

which illustrate opportunities for the Irish seafood sector that
work across more than one scenario, taking into account a
range of uncertainties.

Rather than banking on only one scenario and hoping that it

will dominate, it is wise to invest in opportunities that are
relevant across two or more scenarios.

This section sets out possible Opportunity Platforms likely to

work across the future scenarios. They are designed to act as
springboards for Irish seafood companies to identify
opportunities relevant to their own products.

2014 53
Platforms for growth

Building trust chains

Optimising health for all

New life for long life

New value in old places

Modular mealtimes

2014 54
Building trust chains:
Platform overview
KEY OPPORTUNITIES With trust in companies and manufacturers low and information
access expanding, earning consumer trust in seafood is needed in
Beyond the label order to unlock all other opportunities.
Going beyond the product label to tell provenance
stories through technology Growing awareness of fraud has damaged consumer trust in supply
chains, with the seafood industry feeling knock on effects from
scandals in other categories. The effect of the equine DNA scandal
showed how damaged trust can ripple through the whole supply
chain.

Open sourcing There is therefore an imperative for the seafood industry to build
Opening up the supply chain to educate through trust chains not just building trust at the point of purchase, but
data seeing it running throughout the supply chain.
Part of the solution here is to provide greater transparency around
supply chains though in an information saturated world,
consumers may feel overloaded.
Providing curated information and meaningful proxies will help
Moments of trust consumers navigate this information-rich marketplace. From family
Building moments of trust throughout the path to to peer networks, manufacturers to retailers, NGOs to local
purchase businesses, there is an opportunity for the seafood industry to
build trust across all touch points.

2014 55
Building trust chains:
Positioning on future scenarios

Building trust chains will be important across all future scenarios, as without trust the industry will find it
difficult to secure and deepen consumer engagement. Declining levels of consumer trust make the rebuilding of
trust and assurance an industry priority.

2014 56
 Beyond the label

Going beyond the product label to tell provenance stories through technology
2014 57
Beyond the label
Building trust at the point of purchase remains critical.
As people spend more time researching products in-
store before purchasing, the product label needs to do
more than just give basic information but without
overloading them.
As a result, consumers are looking for labelling
solutions that help them understand and prioritize
information as a way to save time and reclaim
headspace.
The growing use of mobile in shopping is opening an
opportunity for producers to use their products as
platforms - by meshing together physical product
packaging and mobile technologies to embed virtually
told stories into tangible products.
In food service, recent innovations such as edible QR
codes give diners access to information straight from
the plate.
2014
Early indicators
Edible QR codes
Harneys sushi restaurant uses QR
codes printed on rice paper stuck to
sushi. Diners can scan them to see
the state of a species global stock,
where their fish was hooked, and
even the actual faces of the
fishermen behind the catch
In 2014 66% of consumers globally say that
they are increasingly likely to spend time
researching a product before making a
purchase, up from 60% in 2011
Source: The Futures Company, Global MONITOR
Information-synthesising technology
Fooducate allows consumers to scan the
barcode of food products to access a
dashboard that provides food with a grade
according to its healthiness, and highlights
important information about the product,
such as the presence of certain ingredients.
58
Beyond the label

What might this mean for seafood in the future?

Going beyond the product label to tell provenance stories about seafood
through technology by: embedding digital information onto physical
products that can be scanned with mobile technologies; creating
interactive trust certifications.
Ensuring there is better integration between online communications and
physical seafood products in retail (both in store and online) and food
service environments.

Emerging opportunities

In the shorter term In the longer term

Using physical attributes of seafood products
unique to Ireland (e.g. pale colour of smoked
salmon) as markers of trust and quality.
Packaging embedded with Augmented
Reality technologies to tell enhanced
provenance stories.
Labelling integrated with online mapping
services to visualise product origin.
Embedding seafood product packaging with
interactive Origin Green labelling.

2014 59
 Open sourcing

Opening up the supply chain to educate through data

2014 60
Open sourcing
The increase in open data and big data will impact on
food industries as consumers expect more companies
to make their data available and their sourcing more
transparent.
With supply chains become increasingly digitised and
embedded with data collection technology, it is possible
to open up this data up to consumers and visualise it as
an alternative means of telling provenance stories.
A growing set of methods are available for tracking
where goods come from, across a wide variety of
consumer products. Electronic tracking of seafood will
increasingly become a means of guaranteeing product
provenance, and building trust throughout the supply
chain.
2014
Early indicators
Tracking product to source
Following the BP oil spills, the Gulf Seafood
Trace initiative was launched in 2012 to
enable consumers to track seafood
products. The programme offers Gulf
seafood businesses supply chain electronic
traceability and marketing tools such as data
analysis to restore consumer trust
McKinsey research has found that more than
$3 trillion a year in additional value could be
generated globally as a result of open data
Source: McKinsey 2013, Open Data: Unlocking Innovation and
performance with liquid information
Real time updates
M&J Seafoods were the first
seafood provider to offer their
customers catch of the day
messages via Twitter and
MMS allowing customers to
order seafood as soon as it
arrives into port
61
Open sourcing

What might this mean for seafood in the future?

Opening up the supply chain to educate customers and consumers by
using traceability data to tell the biography of the seafood product
demystifying the seafood on consumers plates.
Greater expectation of efficiency in the industry as more companies use
real-time data to manage supply chain risks as well as brand and
reputational risks.

Emerging opportunities

In the shorter term In the longer term

Use traceability data to create reliable audit trails
for products and guarantee that seafood is not
captured using illegal, unreported and
unregulated methods.
Following seafood through the supply chain to
improve customer service by quickly being able to
provide information requested.
Open up supply chain data for customers
and consumers to explore in the same way
that there has been growth in data
journalism, there is likely to be opportunity
in data storytelling.
Incorporate real-time data into online
marketing communications.

2014 62
 Moments of trust

Building moments of trust throughout the path to purchase

2014 63
Moments of trust
As scandals from the BSE crisis in the 1990s to the
recent equine DNA controversy demonstrate, trust
damaged in one part of the supply chain has knock on
effects. Therefore companies across the supply chain
need to work together in building trust at each
consumer touch point, for example brands and retailers.
Producers capturing and farming seafood products
need to be able to pass information about the seafood
through the supply chain, ensuring that it is not lost as
this information is becoming more important to
consumers.
Passing this information down the supply chain and
communicating it with consumers at different points will
help build moments of trust.
2014
Early indicators
Going behind the scenes
After horse meat has been found in
European frozen food products in 2013, all
food brands had to face consumers
mistrust. To get this trust back, Fleury
Michon has played full transparency on
their process, launching a communication
plan called #ComeAndCheck
Following the horsemeat scandal public trust in
the food industry dropped by 24% in the UK
Source: Which?, 2013
See it made
Coquille is a high end restaurant
in Shanghai serving raw fish and
shellfish from an open kitchen.
The setup allows for more
transparency and invites the
guests to experience every step
of the food journey.
64
Moments of trust

What might this mean for seafood in the future?

Rather than focusing solely at the point of purchase, the seafood
industry needs to build a solid foundation of trust across the whole
supply chain thinking in terms of trust chains to ensure trust is not
broken at any one point.
Information flows across the supply chain that can be accessed by the
consumer at any point.

Emerging opportunities

In the shorter term In the longer term

Using social networks not only as static
information portals but also as a means to
communicate real-time information about
production
Provide behind the scene information on
farming and processing
Exploring business models that are direct to
the customer
Communicating how supply chains have
been shortened
Use of webcams and live streaming to show
consumers what is happening on the
farm/on the boat

2014 65
 Market mapping for growth:
Building trust chains
Higher Decreasing levels of consumer trust in food
importance companies is a growing issue in many regions
of the world, particularly in markets that
experience frequent food scandals.
In emerging markets, low levels of trust in
local producers means that consumers
continue to look to foreign brands for
reassurance.
In developed markets, growing exports of
seafood from emerging markets means that
seafood risks becoming a mystery product of
unknown origin. Differentiating through strong
promotion of origin will help.

Low level of High level of

dynamism dynamism

Lower
2014 importance 66
Optimising health for all

KEY OPPORTUNITIES A healthy lifestyle is increasingly an aspirational lifestyle, with good

Competing with other proteins
Reframing seafood as a healthier substitute to
meat
health becoming a sign of success and progress. As a result food
choices are taking into greater account health and wellbeing
considerations.
There is a significant opportunity for seafood to deliver health
benefits for all from those who have already invested in
maintaining healthy lifestyles, to those looking for an easy way to
make the first steps towards better health.

Personalised nutrition As health awareness grows and concepts of health evolve to

Targeting individual dietary needs and aspirations
through seafood
Sinless pleasure
Creating seafood experiences that deliver
moments of healthy pleasure
encompass ever more nuanced ideas such as macrobiotics and
micronutrients, demand for food with enhanced health benefits
will grow and raise the bar for the seafood category.
As health requirements become more specific, it will accelerate the
need for seafood to better target and reflect the specific health
aspirations of different consumer groups for example the health
needs of older people, children, pregnant women etc.
Building a foundation of trust in both the health claims made by
seafood products and in guarantees of safety will be critical in
enabling the seafood industry to create value through health
optimisation.

2014 67
Optimising health for all:
Positioning on future scenarios
The Optimising health for all opportunity platform will add most value in the scenario where consumers
perceive the benefits of seafood to be largely functional. There is also opportunity to add value in the more
experiential value through products that deliver health benefits, although in this scenario the industry will need
to ensure that the health message does not detract from pleasurable enjoyment of seafood.

2014 68
 Competing with other proteins

Reframing seafood as a healthier substitute to other protein sources

2014 69
Competing with other proteins
As incomes rise in emerging markets, protein
consumption is growing. There is therefore opportunity
for the seafood industry to create innovative products
that blur the meat and seafood categories by
substituting seafood into products traditionally
associated with meat (e.g. sausages, meat balls,
burgers etc.)
Giving consumers the choice of an alternative option to
a meat product they already love will enable consumers
to take a first step to a healthier lifestyle particularly
for consumers who are seeking to reduce their meat
consumption for health or environmental reasons, or
who want the benefits of seafood without the barriers.
2014
Early indicators
Seafood burgers
Crabs are coming is a Moscow
fast casual restaurant that sells
crab burgers. This place is
promoted as a trendy place with
original product and healthy food.
According to FAO, world meat production is
anticipated to grow modestly in 2014 to 311.8
million tonnes, an increase of 3.3 million tonnes
or 1.1% compared with 2013. Meat prices
remain at historically high levels.
Source: FAO, Outlook 2014
Fish sausages
Universidad Politcnica de Valencia
has developed a new sausage
product made from the popular fish
dorada (bream). Bream has many
bones and so the university has
positioned the product for kids and
teenagers.
70
Competing with other proteins

What might this mean for seafood in the future?

The seafood industry must work harder at building stronger emotional
connections with consumers if it is to succeed in the face of growing
competition from the meat category.
Leveraging this unique position can help strengthen perceptions of the
category, but regulations governing health claims are likely to continue to
create challenges for the industry.

Emerging opportunities

In the shorter term In the longer term

Develop processed seafood products that Partnering with meat companies to position
recreate traditional meat products, giving people meat and seafood products in relation to soy
access to seafood that they may otherwise be products, a potential threat to both
hesitant to try for fear of bones. industries.
Position seafood as a first step to a healthier
lifestyle through products that do not require
change in consuming behaviours.

2014 71
 Personalised nutrition

Targeting individual dietary needs and aspirations through seafood

2014 72
Personalised nutrition
Demographic and lifestyle changes, combined with
improved understanding of individual food needs,
mean diets are becoming more diverse and the food
market more fragmented.
As a result concepts of health are evolving to take
into consideration the specific dietary needs of
specific demographic groups, creating an imperative
for food industries to move away from a one size fits
all approach to health.
For the seafood category, this means profiling the
micronutrients of species and matching these to the
health needs of specific consumer groups.
The opportunity is focusing on demographic groups
growing in size (e.g. older people in developed
markets, teens in emerging markets) and health
concerns that are increasingly prevalent (e.g. obesity
and dementia).
2014
Early indicators
Bitsys Brainfood
On a mission to make healthy fun,
Bitsy's Brainfood is the world's first
"smart" snack brand for kids
Diet services
Krissina brand offers a Coach
de Krissina service that allows
you to set up a personalized
fitness plan, and offers healthy
recipes based on fish and
seafood.
Printable protein
3D printing technologies have
started making a move into food,
creating personalised meals.
Smoothfood can create custom
plates personalised to individual
needs for specific portion sizes
and vitamins
73
Personalised nutrition

What might this mean for seafood in the future?

Seafood can be given new relevance in peoples lives by addressing the
specific heath needs people are increasingly concerned with and
appealing to new consumer groups that have previously been
disengaged with the seafood category.
At a category level, seafood needs to take significant steps to reflect the
link between food and the way people express identity (particularly as
other categories are raising their game here), in an authentic and
meaningful way.

Emerging opportunities

In the shorter term In the longer term

Profiling the micronutrients associated with
particular seafood species and matching these to
the growing health needs of specific consumer
groups in communications.
Building awareness of health benefits that go
beyond Omega 3.
Developing business models based on
providing services that enable people to
receive personalised health
recommendations, and calculate how
seafood products contribute to their
personal health requirements.

2014 74
 Sinless pleasure

Creating seafood experiences that deliver moments of healthy

pleasure
2014 75
Sinless pleasure
In the past few years, as many people have had to learn
to live with less money and far greater uncertainty, the
focus seems to have been on small experiences that
punctuate everyday life, and provide boosts to body and
spirit.
As a result consumers will continue to seek out simple
pleasures and moments of play to break their stressful
routines.
There is therefore opportunity for the seafood industry
to create products that deliver guilt free pleasure and
indulgence to everyday life through both reassurance
of the health benefits and sustainability credentials.
2014
Early indicators
Seafood jelly shots
Big Prawn Companys alcoholic
seafood jelly shots, inspired by
the worms in the Mexican
liquor mescal
In 2014, 56% of consumers said that they are
always looking for new experiences and
sensations that will liven up their everyday
activities, up from 50% in 2011
Source: The Futures Company, Global MONITOR
Fun first
Seahood is a restaurant chain in China
that mixes American-style fun eating and
Chinese tastes, aimed at younger people.
There is no menu, instead you get a
seafood market which is a basket full of
fresh and fairly low quality - seafood.
Customers go for the experience rather
than the food.
76
Sinless pleasure

What might this mean for seafood in the future?

The sensory and aesthetic characteristics of seafood will become more
important. Seafood products that create enhanced sensory experiences
through new and different textures, appearances and tastes could add
value to everyday consumption.
Over the last decade the communications about seafood have educated
consumers about health benefits. Going forward, the industry could
reposition sustainable seafood as a pleasurable food that people should
not feel guilty about eating.

Emerging opportunities

In the shorter term In the longer term

Create seafood products that deliver sensory
experiences that tantalise and thrill as the main
event.
Develop seafood products that offer everyday
indulgence that come with health benefits that in
no way compromise on taste.
Explore the possibility of incorporating
technological innovation such as molecular
gastronomy that enable consumers to bring
big experiences into the home.

2014 77
 Market mapping for growth:
Optimising health for all
Higher
importance Health is becoming a bigger priority globally
but the specific health concerns top of mind
varies by region.
In emerging markets, health is closely
associated with food safety. However as
lifestyle diseases and demographic change
occurs, issues such as obesity will become
more of a focus.
In developed markets, the focus is
increasingly on preventative health as
populations age and there is growing
expectation that brands will help people to
actively manage their health.

Low level of High level of

dynamism dynamism

Lower
importance
2014 78
New life for long life

KEY OPPORTUNITIES As consumer lifestyles change and adapt to increasing time

pressures, the need for convenient solutions will continue to be top
Laboured love of mind. However, convenience too often suffers from association
Redefining long-life seafood as a smart shortcut with compromise a compromise on nutritional quality, freshness
for busy gourmands
and taste.
There is a significant opportunity for the seafood category to
reposition long-life products, such as frozen and canned seafood,
as sophisticated shortcuts to fresh by using new innovations to
ensure there is no compromise.
Enhancing goodness
Using preservation technologies to lock in and To ensure continued relevance in peoples lives, frozen and canned
maximise the benefits of fresh products will need to overcome barriers to immediate consumption
and to actively challenge outdated attitudes towards long-life.
The key to success in unlocking this opportunity lies in promoting
long-life seafood as having distinct benefits in its own right through
the nutritional enhancement of cutting edge preservation
technology.
Instant cool
Making new trends instantly accessible to all Demonstrating the provenance of long-life seafood products and
improving their traceability will enable the category rebuild trust.

2014 79
New life for long life:
Positioning on future scenarios
The New life for long life opportunity platform has the potential to add value across all scenarios, but will need
to be driven by the industry actively reframing frozen and canned seafood as either offering unique health
benefits or improving the experience offered by long life products in order to create greater consumer
engagement with the category

2014 80
 Laboured love

Redefining long-life seafood as a smart shortcut for busy gourmands

2014 81
Laboured love
The competing pressures of work and home life means
that it can be difficult for people to find the time to
cook, and as working patterns become more or less
standardised, time pressures are likely to continue
increasing.
However at the same time, food cultures around the
world are becoming more sophisticated with the rise in
foodie cultures and celebrations of good food.
There is therefore a real need to provide people with
elegant shortcuts that do not compromise on quality.
For the seafood industry, there is significant opportunity
to reinvigorate frozen and canned seafood products as
shortcuts that streamline the preparation process
while still enabling people to feel that they have created
a meal from scratch a product that feels fresher as a
result.
2014
Early indicators
Preprepared paella, Spain
Paella in Spain is usually
prepared fresh at home, but this
new 1,2,3 Paella from Delfin is
targeted to consumers who need
everything ready-to-cook.
Nestl is taking an if you cant beat em, join
em approach to frozen food, encouraging
shoppers to add a fresh item like a salad or a
piece of fruit to a frozen entre
Source: The Packer, Nestle promoting fresh produce
through frozen meal programme, 2013
Meal assemblies
Happy cooking project in Russia,
you order a cooking set from different
categories an easier way of
preparing a meal
82
Laboured love

What might this mean for seafood in the future?

The seafood industry can lead the reframing of frozen and canned
products in the convenience market by giving these products a new role
as shortcuts in scratch cooking.
This means diversifying long-life products away from fully prepared meals
towards deconstructed menus, prepared ingredients and meal
accompaniments that require a little bit of labour.
Focusing on the meal occasion rather than just the ingredients will also
help create deeper engagement with frozen seafood products

Emerging opportunities

In the shorter term In the longer term

Produce more frozen seafood that comes with
frozen ingredients, ready to be self-assembled
into a meal
Proliferating the degrees of preparedness of
frozen seafood (pre-washed, -chopped, -
measured, -parboiled, etc.)
Frozen seafood that comes with a high standard
of culinary preparation such as flame-searing
Packaging solutions that re-create the
experience of scratch cooking from frozen
Make sustainably sourced more exotic
species more accessible by offering them
frozen in store and online for home delivery

2014 83
 Enhancing goodness

Using preservation technologies to lock in and maximise the benefits

of fresh
2014 84
Enhancing goodness
Early indicators
Fresh is best" has long been the mantra when it comes
Salmon Steamers
to choosing the healthiest foods. However freezing can
This convenient microwaveable
help to preserve natural goodness, an idea that is now
meal comes in three varieties. All
widely when it comes to certain foods such as frozen you do is steam two pouches
peas. together in microwave for 3
minutes
With the innovation in flash freezing technologies on
board boats, there is significant opportunity for the
seafood industry to challenge outdated perceptions of
frozen by emphasising the unique properties of the The American Frozen Food Institute and the
freezing processes that lock in the nutritional power of Frozen Food Roundtable are pooling their might
the seafood making health more accessible to all. to launch a campaign that could reach up to
Growing sustainability concerns means that over the $50 million in spending to counter the negative
next decade, the message that frozen seafood can be health perceptions of the frozen category
better than for the environment than fresh-caught (in Source: AdAge, 2013
that it can be freighted overland rather than by air) is
likely to resonate more strongly.
Frozen sushi
Yedo launches a new
paradoxical range. Indeed, if
sushi are often praised for
the freshness of the
products, they have decided
to sell it frozen

2014 85
Enhancing goodness

What might this mean for seafood in the future?

Investment in cryogenic freezing capabilities on land will increasingly
become a source of competitive advantage, as the quality that comes
with flash freezing offers a significant value add and takes pressure
off for fast and expensive distribution.
The seafood industry needs to work harder at communicating the
health and environmental benefits of freezing and be proud of the
benefits it offers for example positioning seafood products that are
frozen within hours of harvesting as having a guaranteed freshness
compared to the ambiguously labelled fresh seafood on offer.

Emerging opportunities

In the shorter term In the longer term

Developing fresh frozen product ranges with
freshness guarantees
Frozen shellfish that produce no water when
defrosted to counter perception of frozen with low
quality
Using new freezing technologies to produce
sashimi grade frozen seafood with
enhanced sustainability credentials
Packaging solutions such as cook in the
bags that enable frozen seafood to be
perfectly steamed leveraging the health
benefits associated with steaming

2014 86
 Instant cool

Making new trends instantly accessible to all

2014 87
Instant cool
The rise of food images shared on social networks such
as Instagram, often with the accompanying hash tag
#foodporn, indicates the extent to which food has
become a social currency among young people.
The sharing of images showing the latest food trends in
cosmopolitan cities like New York and Singapore is
enabling food trends to be created and spread much
more rapidly.
This means that for long-life seafood products there is
an opportunity to update their image by becoming more
closely associated with the latest food trends and fads
emerging from foodie hot-spots around the world
making those trends more accessible to people living
outside the trendy hot-spots.
2014
Early indicators
Salmon jerky
Wild Salmon Jerky made from USA
chum salmon. Fillets are cut,
brined, and dried. Available in
original, teriyaki and black pepper
flavours.
In California we are seeing a proliferation of
seafood start-ups - were close to Silicone Valley
and close to the ocean. My favourite is Blue Sea
Labs they are the Amazon of frozen seafood,
with a fast growing consumer base.
Expert interview, Monica Jain, seafood consultant
Frozen pulled pork buns
Big City snacks create frozen
meals inspired by New York food
trends in this case a pulled
pork bun
88
Instant cool

What might this mean for seafood in the future?

The seafood industry will need to become more responsive to fast-
moving food trends and fads particularly as other categories up
their game.
In the same way that fashion companies such as Zara have become
adept as reducing the time it takes to bring catwalk designs to the
high street, the seafood industry will need to optimise its supply
chains to do the same.

Emerging opportunities

In the shorter term In the longer term

More effective industry based tracking of food Explore partnerships with lifestyle brands
trends outside of the food category for example
Making frozen products more cool by creating sports or music to tie in with broader
freeze-able/long life versions of new street food trends
from foodie hotspots around the world
Making products more photo friendly by
improving the design and aesthetics of frozen
and long life products

2014 89
 Market mapping for growth:
New life for long life
Higher
importance Urbanisation and the rise of women entering
the workplace in emerging markets is driving
the need for convenience, which is a
significant opportunity for frozen and canned
food although in markets like China
traditionally dominated by fresh markets. the
industry will need to work harder to
communicate the positive benefits of long-life.
In more developed markets, convenience
needs are well established, and shortcuts that
enable faster scratch cooking will become
more important in future. Here the focus of
the industry must be on overcoming out-dated
perceptions of long-life foods.
Low level of High level of
dynamism dynamism

Lower
importance
2014 90
Finding new value in old places

KEY OPPORTUNITIES As awareness of environmental challenges grows, manufacturers,

retailers and consumers are placing greater focus on the careful
Reinventing recipes management of scarce resources. No longer a sign of thrift, doing
Placing the emphasis on offcuts as ingredients, more with less is becoming a badge of pride for those who wish to
rather than as products
demonstrate their commitment to responsible living.
For the seafood industry, rising energy prices means that supply
chains will need to drive down wastage and there is significant
opportunity to create new value from by-products and offcuts
previously dismissed as waste.
Functional alchemy
Developing health enhancing nutraceuticals from For consumers, growing interest in scratch cooking is creating
seafood offcuts deeper connections with food. Just as there has been a surge of
interest in nose to tail meat eating, there is opportunity for
seafood industry to awaken consumer interest by encouraging
greater experimentation with forgotten species.
While this is likely to require investment in consumer education, it
has the potential to redefine the resource footprint of the category
Beyond seafood
Breathing new life into old traditions while reconnecting people to the food that they eat.

2014 91
Finding new value in old places:
Positioning on future scenarios
The Finding new value in old places opportunity platform has potential to add value in the scenarios where
consumer attitudes towards seafood are primarily functional. Driving commerciality here can drive the industry
to better manage limited resources in order to extract greater value from by-products that would otherwise go to
waste

2014 92
 Reinventing recipes

Extracting the essence of seafood to reinvent recipes

2014 93
Reinventing recipes
The by-products of processing are often wasted or sold
for low value due to the difficulty associated with selling
products made from anything classed as waste - the
negative cultural baggage that comes with it puts
consumers off.
However the growing desire to reconnect with food,
coupled with new social stigmas around food wastage,
means that there is an opportunity for the seafood
industry to promote extracting value from offcuts as a
sustainable solution.
In order to add value for consumers, offcuts can be
used as ingredients that revive and reinvent traditional
recipes associated with an earlier age when people
were naturally more connected to their food creating a
seafood equivalent of nose to tail cuisine.
In addition food additives made from seafood offcuts
can make recipes and products in entirely different
categories healthier.
2014
Early indicators
Squid ink black pudding
Squid-ink-and-apple black pudding
a twist on the traditional sausage
but made without the pork blood
Globally, around four billion metric tonnes of food per
annum are produced. Yet, due to poor practices in
harvesting, storage and transportation, as well as
market and consumer wastage, it is estimated that 30-
50% (or 1.2-2 billion tonnes) of all food produced never
reaches a human stomach.
Source: Institute of Mechanical Engineers Waste Not, Want Not
Mussel powder
The powder can be used to
enhance the taste of seafood
dishes and sauces, and also with
poultry, meat and vegetables
94
Reinventing recipes

What might this mean for seafood in the future?

Thinking in terms of recipes rather than products and educating
consumers about the different ways they can reduce waste in their
own preparations as part of a sustainable lifestyle
Communicating the environmental benefits of using offcuts in terms
of waste reduction is likely to increase consumer engagement with
the category.

Emerging opportunities

In the shorter term In the longer term

Current market examples of using offcuts are
limited to products such as fish pie mixes and
value range trimmings.
This can be extended by modernising traditional
recipes with seafood offcuts such as black
pudding
Extracting proteins and oils from offcuts that
can be used as additives in other food
ingredients, making non-seafood recipes
healthier

2014 95
 Functional alchemy

Extracting the vital essence of seafood from offcuts

2014 96
Functional alchemy
Rising consumer interest in nutraceuticals and
cosmeceuticals as a concern around health prevention
and wellbeing grows means that there is potential for
the seafood industry to extract goodness from offcuts
for use in functional products that fall outside of the
traditional seafood category.
The nutraceuticals and cosmeceuticals market has
seen rapid growth over the last decade and there is
growing R&D investment in these industries.
However the risk is that other industries for example
FMCG companies producing supplements and
cosmetics - claim the value that can be derived from
seafood and marine processing rather than the seafood
industry.
2014
Early indicators
Beyond Omega 3
Supplements on the market are
going beyond Omega 3 to other
marine benefits such as
antioxidants
One of the fastest growing industries in the world is the
nutritional supplement group, or more broadly known as
Vitamins, Minerals and Supplements, or VMS.
Producing about $32 billion in revenue for just
nutritional supplements alone in 2012, it is projected to
double that by topping $60 billion in 2021
Source: Nutritional Business Journal
Krill partnerships
Avoca and Olympic Seafood have
formed a joint venture to produce krill
oil, allowing for a guaranteed supply.
The new venture, called Rimfrost,
combines Olympic Seafoods
production of raw krill material with
Avocas extraction technology
97
Functional alchemy

What might this mean for seafood in the future?

Moving the seafood industry away from a simple catch, pack and
ship value-added approach to using fish components for food,
health and industrial applications
Developing partnerships in the nutraceuticals, cosmeceuticals and
pharmaceutical industries

Emerging opportunities

In the shorter term In the longer term

Supplying pharmaceutical companies with
offcuts for nutraceuticals and dietary
supplements
Functional foods and beverages enhanced with
seafood derived micronutrients
Development of products that help the body
attain optimal health to keep it clean and
respond to modern day problems such as
stress or tiredness
Explore opportunities for nutraceuticals
containing seafood/marine extracts targeted
at young people

2014 98
 Beyond seafood

Unlocking the power of seafood by pairing with marine and land

superfoods
2014 99
Beyond seafood
Early indicators
New research and growing investment in marine
biotechnology is fuelling interest in marine ingredients Seeded seafood
such as seaweed that have previously been considered Alaska pollock fillets coated
with pumpkin seeded crumbs.
niche and artisanal. Pumpkin seeds provide
As marine biotechnology makes progress in unlocking magnesium, zinc and plant-
based omega-3s.
the benefits of seaweed, there is potential for the
seafood industry to heighten the nutritional advantage
of seafood by pairing it with marine ingredients.
The global marine biotech market to grow at a CAGR of
In addition as consumers continue to seek out 3.82% over the period 2012-2016. One of the key
superfoods with dietary benefits, there is an factors contributing to this market growth is the
opportunity to replace traditional accompaniments of increase in the demand for natural products. However,
processed seafood such as breadcrumbs with high R&D costs could pose a challenge to the growth of
superfood substitutes such as seeds with high omega-3 this market.
content. Source: PR Newswire
Pairings between seafood and marine/land superfoods
will help consumers to increase their micronutrient
Seaweed snacks
intake while leveraging the popularity of foods like goji
Seaweed increasing
berries and chia seeds to update the health image of labelled as a superfood is
seafood. being bought to Western
markets as chips

2014 100
Beyond seafood

What might this mean for seafood in the future?

As consumers become more conscious of the nutritional properties
of marine ingredients such as algae, there is potential that these
products will compete with seafood meaning that the seafood
industry needs to pre-emptively take advantage of its natural
association with non-animal marine ingredients

Emerging opportunities

In the shorter term In the longer term

Deepen the connection with health by fortifying Producing algae for nutraceutical and
seafood with other healthy ingredients for cosmeceuticals companies commercially.
example substituting breadcrumbs with seeds.
Production of marine ingredients such as
seaweed.

2014 101
 Market mapping for growth:
Finding new value in old places
Higher
importance Food waste is a growing issue in many regions
of the world, and in many markets the
problem originates in both the supply chain
and in consumers homes. The seafood
industry therefore can play a leading role in
reducing waste across the supply chain.
In emerging markets, making responsible
choices is less of a consumer priority as other
issues are often more pressing.
In developed markets, reducing food waste in
the home will become imperative, with
squeezed incomes forcing renewed attention
on the issue.

Low level of High level of

dynamism dynamism

Lower
102
2014
importance
Modular mealtimes

KEY OPPORTUNITIES Smaller households and new household types are creating new
needs for meal preparation, such as male single person
Portable seafood households where men are on average less engaged with cooking
Diversifying out-of-home and portable solutions by and preparing traditional complete meals.
blurring meal and snack formats
In addition flexible working patterns are breaking up routines and
traditional meal times, creating more opportunities for different
eating behaviours both in and out of the home. Snacking is starting
to take on some of the functional responsibilities and emotional
roles previously reserved for main meals, raising the bar for the
Clean experiences needs the seafood industry must meet.
Creating high engagement with seafood through
no contact preparation This is creating an opportunity for seafood to bridge the gap
opening between meals and snacks, in-home and out of home.
Bringing into the home experiences usually reserved for restaurant
occasions will enable consumers enliven everyday eating. However
in order to be successful, the seafood industry must continue to
reduce the barriers to seafood - particularly preparation.
Local customisation
Providing universal building blocks for customising
to local tastes

2014 103
Modular mealtimes:
Positioning on future scenarios
The Modular mealtimes opportunity platform has potential to add value across the scenarios by adapting
seafood products to changing food cultures globally and the evolving ways in which people eat. It has particular
potential in the scenario where consumer attitudes towards seafood are more experiential by ensuring that
experiences are both relevant and accessible to consumers

2014 104
 Portable seafood

Diversifying out-of-home and portable solutions by blurring meal and

snack formats
2014 105
Portable seafood
Consumers are increasingly fitting eating and drinking
around their work and leisure activities. Meals are
becoming lighter or consist of snacks and not
necessary consumed seated, while families are
increasingly eating separately rather than together.
Leading the trend are younger, urban consumer groups.
Limited-service restaurants (this includes fast-food and
fast-casual restaurants) will remain a key driving force
in the long-term movement towards eating out,
expanding offerings into breakfast and dinner.
As a result there is an opportunity for the seafood
industry to diversify its out of home options by blurring
between meals and snacks creating meals that are
lighter and snacks that are more substantial.
2014
Early indicators
Double Dippers
This innovative snack product
presents king prawns, sweet
chili sauce and prawn
crackers separately in a three-
compartment tray.
Sweet and savory snacks and snack bars have
continued to grow strongly, despite the negative
impact of the recession; sweet and savory snacks
are forecast to grow in value to $135 billion globally
by 2017 (vs. $114 billion in 2012).
Source: Euromonitor International
Packaging you can eat
Wikicells edible packaging encloses
food or drinks in ways similar to how
nature protects a coconut or an
orange. Their Wiki Ice Cream can be
held in your hand, eaten like an apple
or poked with a straw and drunk like a
shake.
106
Portable seafood

What might this mean for seafood in the future?

The need to create alternatives to fast foods and snacks that are
better for you, serving health and value-conscious consumers.
Functional packaging that preserves/chills the product enabling it
to be consumed on impulse without having to be placed back in
the fridge.
Supply fast casual foodservice with a greater variety of breakfast
items that are well matched with morning drinks (e.g. coffee, tea).

Emerging opportunities

In the shorter term In the longer term

- Snack foods that incorporate flavors, Innovation in packaging that enable the
ingredients, and sensations associated with product to be easily carried and chilled
mealtime foods/dishes throughout the day

- Casual, light meals that can be consumed at Deeper exploration of the possibility for on
any time of the day the go defrosting

2014 107
 Clean experiences

Creating high engagement with seafood through no contact

preparation
2014 108
Clean experiences
Early indicators
Within the evolution of the mealtime there will be a
Coffret Plateau de Fruits de Mer
place for sit-down meals; eating together with friends
and family is a globally-shared pastime. As eating habits Fresh cooked shellfish to
allow people to create
become more flexible and informal, such occasions are shellfish platters at home
all the more heightened as experiences to be savored
and shared.
When people eat at home together, there is an
opportunity for the seafood industry to make this a
more social and memorable experience by focusing on
As many as 55% of people worldwide still cook a
solutions that can be shared, or that re-create high end
meal entirely from raw ingredients on a regular
or crafted experiences typically associated with
basis (i.e. at least once a week), while 38% do
restaurants.
so using some pre-prepared ingredients.
The paradox for seafood is that while this presents as
Source: Euromonitor International
opportunity to create higher engagement with the
category, it must overcome the barriers to consumption
by using packaging in a way that requires low physical
engagement with the actual product. Self-cooking eggs

The eggs sits inside the

gogol mogol and when the
brown tab is pulled
chemicals inside react and
cook it in two minutes

2014 109
Clean experiences

What might this mean for seafood in the future?

Need to continue removing the barriers to seafood consumption
(handling, preparation) through solutions that require minimal
contact with the raw product
Focusing on formats that can be easily shared at the table and that
recreate the experience of dining out
Creating restaurant quality pre-cooked meals that can be delivered
piping hot into the home

Emerging opportunities

In the shorter term In the longer term

Pre-cooked products that are assembled as kits, Heat sensitive packaging that cooks/heats
allowing for easy assembly at home, or fish pre- the product to perfection without the
prepared as fillets or portions, for easy cooking consumer having to do anything
Boil in the bag solutions that contain whole
meals
Packaging that displays the product in an
aesthetically pleasing way so it can be served at
the table still in its packaging

2014 110
 Local customisation

Providing universal building blocks that can be easily customised to

local tastes
2014 111
Local customisation
The flow of ideas, information, products and services
around the globe is growing in complexity; as a result
people from a wide variety of countries influence, and
are influenced by, an increasingly diverse array of
sources.
Factors such as cultural norms and religious beliefs will
play a significant role in informing food choice in
emerging markets, and these elements of local custom
and comfort will lead to the diversification of diets
globally.
This means that global brands will increasingly need to
customise their product offerings to local tastes. This is
opening an opportunity for the seafood industry to help
brands tailor their offerings by providing a seafood
base that can be easily and quickly customised with
other ingredients and sauces into any number of local
recipes, reflecting local cultures and tastes.
2014
Early indicators
Iglo Crunch N Fish
For the German market, Iglo have
taken sablefish is processed with a
coating made from fried potatoes
resembling potato fritters, a popular
dish in Germany.
In 2014 56% of consumers globally say they
increasingly expect products to be customised
to suit their personal needs, up from 52% in
2010
Source: The Futures Company, Global MONITOR
Ready to enjoy
This ready to eat meal features high
quality Roasted Sweet Chilli Salmon
fillet with a Tomato and Chilli Chutney
all in one pack
112
Local customisation

What might this mean for seafood in the future?

Communicating the provenance of the seafood base as a trusted,
high quality product that local suppliers can then easily customise
with local ingredients
Facilitating greater experimentation with new types of foods, cuisines
and flavours will help position seafood as an aspirational choice.

Emerging opportunities

In the shorter term In the longer term

Modular products that come with a quality,
consistent seafood base with separate packets
of local ingredients e.g. creating an Irish base
with French accompaniments
Products that come ready prepared using
ingredients that speak to a local tradition
Products which put a local twist on a seafood
base
Exploring the food cultures of emerging
markets that are underrepresented by global
brands
Seafood products that enable consumers to
travel without leaving home e.g. that bring
Indonesian cuisine to European markets,
without the air-miles

2014 113
Market mapping for growth:
Modular mealtimes
Higher
importance Meal occasions are becoming more
fragmented globally, with eating on the
move and snacking expanding in markets
such as the US, UK and Ireland. This
represents a significant untapped
opportunity for the seafood category,
particularly in providing lighter and portable
options for fast casual foodservice.
Expectations for customisation are growing
particularly fast in emerging markets, and
so there is significant opportunity to provide
culturally relevant products in markets like
China.

Low level of High level of

dynamism dynamism

Lower
importance
2014 114
 Context: Perspectives on the future of
packaging and retail

2014 115
The Opportunity Platforms will be influenced by developments in
retail and packaging

While scenarios give a

sense of change and
platforms indicate
opportunities, there
are other contexts to
be considered.
The final section
provides a brief
context on recent
developments in the
future of retail and
packaging.

2014 116
Packaging perspective

2014 117
Packaging perspective

Seafood packaging plays an important role in

reducing the barriers to seafood consumption.
Fundamentally, functionality is key. Packaging
that solves a problem and makes life easier wins
consumer loyalty. But to win, functional needs to
be visually stunning too - design wow is
expected is increasingly expected as part of the
brand experience.
Increasingly, packaging has to work even harder
to cut through competition across all FMCG
categories including seafood, particularly
because other FMCG companies are raising their
game when it comes to packaging.
The next section take a brief look at trends
around four functions of packaging: protection,
communication, convenience and minimising
impact.

2014 118
Protection and Communication:
Packaging perspectives

Protection
Preserving freshness is a key driver in seafood packaging
innovation and new types of packaging that enable longer
shelf-life while keeping products looking clean and fresh are
being released onto the market. For fresh seafood, solutions
that protect products sold at fresh fish counters and reduce
risk of leakage will help overcome barriers to fish
consumption.
Bring fresh back home, UK
London design agency Postler
Ferguson created a fresh fish pack
concept intended for use at fresh fish
counters. Constructed from a double
layered polyethylene, they are airtight,
resealable and can be filled with ice
for transport to keep fish fresh.
Communication
On-pack information, in addition to graphics, helps strengthen
the emotional connection between consumers and seafood; in
addition to reinforcing positive food values and lifestyle cues,
through on-pack provenance, recipes or ingredient stories.
New technologies such as QR codes and augmented realities
are being used to embed digital information and video onto
the physical packaging.
Augmented reality, UK
Heinz have trialled augmented reality
labelling so that when scanned with a
mobile, the label comes to life as an
interactive recipe book with videos
showing how to prepare meals

Enhanced preservation, Japan

Fun usage indicator, UK
The Ultra-Freshness Preservation
Freezing System launched by Mutsumi Buddy Mulled wine comes with rings
Chemical Co in Japan uses an innovative around the bottle that indicate not only
alternating current freezing method to how much you have consumed, but do this
rapidly cool the product without in an entertaining way in terms of how
oxidization. The unique package design drunk you will be after each mark.
that includes an electro conductive bag,
preserves food taste and texture.

2014 119
Protection and Communication:
Packaging perspectives

Convenience Reducing impact

Convenience features such as easy opening, reclosability,
portability and one-handed use continue to drive food-
packaging innovation for a range of processed seafood. For
seafood, minimising the physical contact with the product and
cooking simultaneously with other ingredients are emerging
as dominant themes.
There is a growing realisation that packaging innovation is
crucial to delivering sustainability for the food and beverage
sector, and it now forms a key part of many companies'
corporate social responsibility programmes. Packaging that
reduces waste and made from more sustainable materials
can ensure the industry keeps up.

No hassle BBQ grilling, UK

Sira-Cook Supreme bags are foil
bags capable of withstanding
significant direct heat, allowing for
its use on a barbecue as well as in
an oven. The food will be tender,
retain all the juices and flavours,
and could be sold over the counter
in the pack
Dual cooking, Sweden
Shieltronics microwave-shielding
technology makes it possible to control
the intensity of microwaves in a
microwave oven so that foods requiring
less microwave energy than others can
all be prepared in one convenient
cooking cycle lasting four to six minutes
Edible packaging, Brazil
Bobs burger chain experimented with
edible packaging to entertain
customers, remove the need for an
extra disposal stage, and raise
awareness around packaging waste.
Biodegradable natural packaging, UK
Scientists at Nofima are participating
in a major EU-financed project in
which active packaging based on
raw materials from shrimp shell
improves and conserves food
products and after use the packaging
biodegrades

2014 120
Retail perspective

2014 121
The shopper journey is becoming increasingly
complex
The retail environment has become more The purchase funnel
complicated as a result of the changing shopper
journey.
Understanding shoppers used to be simple. They
were understood as people who did things in a Awareness Familiarity Consideration Purchase Loyalty
linear way, progressing in a beeline from
awareness through to purchase. Prospects would
be ushered along a purchase funnel, arriving
along the journey at one or more moments of
truth that led to purchase.
The purchase funnel has become a purchase
fish, a complex world of feedback involving
research, multi- channel contact with the seller
and eventual purchase, as well as the testing of
opinion with an ever-larger group of other
consumers.
For seafood retailers this is creating an
imperative to re-engage shoppers at every point
of the shopper journey.

2014 122
Re-engaging shoppers
Retail theatre in-store
As more shoppers buy online, retailers
are increasingly introducing initiatives
to make their brick and mortar stores
destinations in their own right.
For example, Carrefour has opened
sushi stations in some of its larger
stores in France, where they prepare
sushi every day on the shop floor,
guaranteeing freshness.
There are signs that discount retailers
such as Lidl, who have traditionally
neglected the fresh fish offer, will be
introducing fish counters in an attempt
to deepen shopper engagement in-
store.
2014
Omni-channel seafood
The seafood sales have been slow to
move online. However more retailers
are moving into this space.
For example internet commerce has
proven popular in China, where traffic
jams make travel arduous in sprawling
cities like Beijing. As a result Chinese
seafood company Seabridge has
switched from traditional retailers to
online stores like Taobao.
In the US, ILoveBlueSea, positioned as
the Amazon of seafood, provides a
long tail of exotic frozen seafood
delivered direct to customers homes.
Everywhere commerce
Mobile commerce means shoppers
increasingly expect to be able to buy
products at a time and place that is
convenient to them.
Responding to this expectation, a
Barcelona-based fish shop, Ricard
Peixaderia, has installed a vending
machine to sell fresh fish around the
clock. It has been found to be a
convenient solution, especially for
younger consumers who do not like to
enter into traditional fish shops.
123
Thank you
Joe Ballantyne, Associate Director
(joe.ballantyne@thefuturescompany.com)