PoliticOZ 3 July 2017

POLTICOZ
PM HOLDS RANK BUT STILL OUT OF TOUCH

The Coalition wades in confusion as Abbott

crusades the road ahead

Albert Einstein once said adversity introduces a man

to himself. Abbotts assertive voice from the gallows
can hardly be a sign of a wrecker so quick to see the
demise of the party which he dearly loves, but a wake
up call to the pretenders that the time to act is now.

With 14 straight losses at the Polls and a 1 seat

majority, the Coalition could hardly sprout that its in a
winning position. Despite Senior Cabinet Minister
Christopher Pynes enthusiastic sing song to his pink
boys over a few bottles of chardy that [they] are
winning, the departure from centre-right ideology infuriated traditional
conservative voters who are ready to jump ship. Its not surprising, then, that we see the
attraction of the likes of Cory Bernardi and One Nation as viable options to fly the
conservative flag.

Whilst some commentators forecast a catastrophic defeat for the Coalition at the
next election, Tony Abbott stepped up his campaign last week to save the party from
this so called inevitability, which would see Bill Shorten take the top job. But more than
saving the party from defeat lies Abbotts crusade to save the party from abolition.
Mathias Cormann came out yesterday on the front foot claiming Abbots comments that
the Liberal Party has shifted to the left were not helpful but neither is denialism. What I
have previously termed the amoeba eect in politics is underpinning the weakened
position of the coalition as it seeks to appease left wing critics and voters at the expense
of maintaining the conservative vote. Senior Coalition members have sat idle for too
long, failing to take on the tough issues facing Australia with strength and conviction,
either through ignorance or complacency.

The result is Labors increased popularity as Turnbull struggles to verbalise the

position of the Coalition and fight for it. Howard ran a tight conservative government and
no doubt picked his battles, but he wasnt short of ticker and had no problem reigning in
wayward ministers who were motivated by self interest and ego.

It is no glib or slogan that Australia would be worse o under the ALP. History
has shown that we would be and given we have not witnessed a sensible realignment of

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Labor policy that accurately reflects its core electorate of

A man can be discouraged
many times, but he is not a
failure until he begins to
blame somebody else and
stop trying. John
Burroughs
blue collar workers, Australia is faced with a dire
alternative. A win for the ALP at the next election won't
occur because Shorten is a stronger leader over Turnbull
or because he will win the popularity vote with the
people but because the Coalition will give the Australian
public no other choice with its unwillingness or inability
to take the ball up on our behalf.

Up against an obstructionist opposition government hell bent on winning the

trophy by scoring points on the back of Coalition infighting, Turnbull has been
unsuccessful in making significant gains on the conservative front on both economic
and social policy. A series of small wins has left core constituents feeling confused and
forgotten, as the government forges ahead with Labor-lite policy. Shortens constant
manipulation of public opinion through endless political stunts of virtue signalling and a
left leaning media class all too often setting the political agenda, has opened the
government to scrutiny with the question being loudly asked: What the hell is Turnbull
doing?

Despite the call for a re-structure of the Liberal Party and a re-think on its future
direction, no one is answering the call or taking responsibility for the trouble the party is
in. The easy out, It seems, is to scapegoat Tony Abbott who appears to be the only one
fighting for the survival of the party. Some have argued Abbott is preaching to the
converted. Not unlike the ALP with the unions, the Coalition has its loyal supporters but
there is a huge swinging vote of working and middle class Australians who feel their
needs are not being met by either major party. It is this group that are enthused by
Abbotts conservative, nationalistic and pragmatic views and policies. These groups are
the power players, the swingers, the undecided. This is the group the Coalition must
speak to and lure with principled policy and straight talk. This is mainstream Australia.
The rest is an open playing field and up for grabs at the next election. An intelligent
politician would be gunning to tap into this market. And it appears Abbotts grasp is far
greater than most anticipate or give him credit for.

But rather than make a blatant or even underhanded challenge at the top job,
Abbott is forcing a challenge to the government to mend its ways before its too late.
Abbott speaks the language of mainstream Australia and a recent poll held by Sky News
inferring that Turnbull was the preferred PM over Abbott is hardly representative of the
conservative vote. If we took the same vote of conservatives on 2GB or other
conservative media platforms, we might see the tables turn in support for, if not Abbott
himself, his principles and his push for a new way ahead. The challenge for Turnbull is
whether he can take control of his government and the challenge of re-defining the party
in accordance with conservative values that appeals to mainstream Australia, or risk
further defection.

No doubt there will be some who view the former Prime Ministers actions as an
agitation and a move to destabilise the party. But surely the Coalition needs a shake up

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at this point. One also would only assume that the Abbott tickle in Turnbulls throat is
blatantly divisive if the Coalition didn't have anything to lose. Putting aside the
consistent poor results in the polls, constant criticism of Turnbull, even in light of his
small but steady gains, proves Australians are more than disappointed by current
leadership and disillusioned by the current political climate. Pressing for re-commitment
to conservative values and principles is crucial at a time when the Coalition is not only
seen to be in crisis but is in crisis.

Painting Abbott as a wrecker does little to unite a tumultuous party and only
strengthens the resolve of both Abbott and his supporters to push onwards and
upwards. Rather than viewing Abbott as an albatross, Turnbull should draw on the
strengths of Abbott, and all his team in the face of the onslaught of a cashed up Labor
movement. Having a cabinet of highly skilled members is one benefit of an elected
democratic government and one which is surely the most successful in representing the
needs of a diverse society.

Suggesting that cowardice is behind the Abbotts insurgency is to hide from the
elephant in the room; the looming threat of the most left wing Labor Party in history
taking control of this country. Anyone willing to force a party to reflect and re-evaluate in
an eort to avoid its demise, knowing the likelihood of a backlash, can only be seen as
heroic and a crusade to victory in the eyes of mainstream Australia. What motivates and
drives average Australians is self belief and conviction. For a former leader who has
nothing to lose, Abbott can hardly be branded as self indulgent or motivated by self
interest. Abbott rightly calls the party to arms as Turnbull called on all patriots to fight
the good fight but as leader, Turnbull must know what that fight is, keep his eye on the
ball and win the scrum.

With critics claiming that Abbotts current policy direction is inconsistent with his
time as Prime Minister, he could hardly lose credibility on the notion that he now
envisages a dident future for Australia. It is this lack of insight of Abbotts critics that is
preventing the Coalition from gaining the confidence of the now vigilant Australian voter.
Abbott heralds as a man who has not only seen but experienced being at the top
as he has experienced the bottom, displaced as PM by Turnbull in 2015. This crushing
demotion resulted in further alienation as he was delegated to the back bench, and
criticised and condemned for speaking freely. Defeat humbles a man and ostracisation
and the struggle to be heard in face of great adversity, builds resilience. Time away from
the spotlight gives one time to self reflect. The ability to watch from afar gives a sense of
clarity when others are blinded by examining themselves too closely. One would hope
that Abbott takes a fresh approach backed by traditional values given his past run was
unsuccessful. It is naive and short sighted of senior Coalition members to suggest a
change in direction reduces Abbotts position. What members say didn't work then is
surely unlikely to be successful now. Abbott has accepted that reality. The changing
nature of the political climate with increased public attention and scrutiny on
government, and an increasing demand for government to deliver outcomes in the
national interest, brings light to new arguments on policy and established principles by

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an enlightened man indeed.

This is crunch time for the Coalition to pull together on a shared set of values
and principles. It must draw on the strengths of all members to contribute. It must be
open to sensible, honest and confronting debate. The Coalition currently is meeting the
needs of too few and, as with all Australians, it could do much better. The Coalition
must take on the mind set that it will win every seat not just get over the line. A one seat
majority is barely a pass and the needs of Australians have been at the expense of an
ineective senate, a lack of clarity of what defines the Coalition and members who lack
back bone to set the agenda and stand by that agenda with conviction. With Julia
Bishop running for the hills and Cash unusually quiet, factions of men are tearing apart
the party.

We all acknowledge Shorten is revelling in the disfunction of the Liberal Partys

factional infighting, and selling hand outs as his campaign strategy at the next election
is a sure winner. The informed Australian also accepts that Shortens words are not pu.
Shorten will reverse cuts on penalty rates and tax cuts on higher income groups. He will
continue with Labors misguided spending on greens energy policy and ignore the
Australias gross debt of nearly $500 billion which is burdening this country. Police
numbers will be cut, refugee numbers will increase, Australian workers will be replaced
by cheap foreign Labor closely aligned to humanitarian principles than in accordance
with 457 guidelines, and the welfare sector will further widen. Pledging instant rewards
to an embattled nation short on skill and floundering in international education rankings,
dispels the notion that disparity in wealth and power is gained through education and
hard work.

We cant ignore Labors shift further to the left and the dire consequences of that
shift for the Australian people. Nor can we ignore Labors dismal history on economic
policy and national security, which hardly presents as a legitimate, sensible or viable
policy strategy now given our national debt and the increasing threat of terrorism. Give
a lolly to a child and they feel instant gratification. Give a bag of lollies to a child all of
the time and the long term results are costly. Constant appeasement satisfies the
hunger of the impatient and the lazy. It makes for complacency in government, and
inevitably creates a cloud of uncertainty over the future of this country.

Abbotts sheer presence and undeniable conviction is a message to government

and his critics that he is valuable, he wont be silenced or dismissed, and he isn't going
anywhere anytime soon. Lets face it, Australians are straight forward people. We have
become impatient with rhetoric and ineectual leadership, and love an under dog. The
fighting spirit amongst Australians is enormous. The echoes of the great Australia of
yesteryear is hard to swallow, and so the calls for change looms large. Trump is a prime
example of a society disillusioned by complacent governments failing to deliver. Trump
oered a new way ahead. He spoke to the heart of the nation and acted with the same
conviction. Whether you like Trump or not, he got up when he needed to and came
home trumps.

The aim now of the the Coalition must be as Paul Kelly of The Australian noted

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to balance appeasement with combat, with the starting point based on conservative
values. Certain things are a given for survival. They are the needs of society; health,
food and electricity. It serves no purpose to be combative on these issues for the public
won't barter with their basic needs. Increasing GST, cuts to spending on health and
failing to implement policy to reduce gas prices and, ultimately, electricity prices are sure
losers. Compromising on national security and education would be non sensical for if we
are not safe and we are not innovative, we are not free to enjoy the fruits of our
democratic society including good heath, warmth, a full stomach or have the ability to
prosper. Job creation, housing aordability, penalty rates, welfare, development of
infrastructure and levels of migration are moot points. This dichotomy of appeasement
and combat was heralded by John Howard and superseded all other strategies for over
a decade.

The government celebrated Gonski as a victory because it won support after a

long and arduous arm wrestle. It was, however, in substance a hefty compromise for a
Coalition government. The needs based model to increase opportunity on an equitable
basis for all Australian children was diluted to appease the groups that screamed the
loudest. Turnbull got it over the line but it was a pass at best, with State schools still
losing out.

Factional disputes have to be resolved now. Turnbull and Abbott ought to act with
maturity by putting their grievances aside and pushing forward with pragmatic policy,
based on what is in the best interests of the nation. Acting in the national interest must
be at the forefront of every decision of every minister. The party must unify now and
Turnbull must pull his team together. If he doesn't face the deep seated resentment felt
by Abbott and his supporters for past wrongs, it will fester and spell the end of both
Turnbulls leadership and the Coalition government. Turnbull is a very capable leader but
he must not be ignorant of, or fear the strengths and success of others. Turnbull would
be better served by utilising the keen strategist in Abbot who appeals to mainstream
society in partnership rather than viewing him as a wrecker or opponent. The only
opponent should be Bill Shorten and the target of dissent and ridicule should be
towards the ALP, not fellow Coalition members.

Inclusiveness is what the government has been selling to Australia. It is what has
been at the centre of our success as a multiracial country. It is the absence of inclusivity
that has caused division in the Liberal Party, and led to a below par opposition scoring
points at the polls. If Turnbull is waiting for a sign to re-define and re-structure the party
and its policy direction THIS IS IT! We know the ALP is in front. We know they are a
formidable force. Equally, we know Australia will be worse o under a Labor
government. We know that the Coalition cannot achieve its full potential with a one seat
majority. The aim should be outcome based for the Australian people. Getting over the
line will not suce come the next election. The Coalition must take the win convincingly
to make Australia great again.

The Liberal party must create a culture where risk taking and boldness is
championed. It must re-examine what it stands for as it moves into a new era of politics.

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Winning the war is the objective, failing in between is the reality and Turnbull must take
losses in his stride. The public will forgive those who fail with strength and conviction
than if they fail without it. Australians wont follow a passive voice into war because no
one trusts an insecure or indecisive leader. Despite the overwhelming view that Labor is
sure to take the next election, Coalition critics have clearly underestimated this
governments ability and the fighting spirit of Turnbull and his team in Joyce, Abbott.
Dutton, Cash, Porter, Mathias, Abetz, Christensen, Morrison, Birmingham and others.
On paper, the Coalition are far superior to ALP members. But they have to utilise
their collective knowledge and skill to deliver for the people by setting a clear agenda,
by not allowing partisan media to high jack or railroad their agenda, particularly when it
is motivated by controversy and driven by ratings and profit, and they have to connect
with mainstream Australia. The Australian people will warm to this government if they
provide the goods but they must live by the words they speak. The Coalition are a team
of many stripes, weathered but not yet weary, and as I say its not over until the fat lady
sings and she aint singing yet!

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