Tarun Das ADB Nepal Activity Report April 2010

Monthly Activity/ Progress Report of Tarun Das, Macroeconomic Modeling Specialist
MONTHLY ACTIVITY/PROGRESS REPORT OF TARUN DAS,

TEAM LEADER AND MACROECONOMIC MODELING SPECIALIST1
(FORMERLY, ECONOMIC ADVISER, MINISTRY OF FINANCE, INDIA)
FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL 2009
IN ASSOCIATION WITH
DURGA LAL SHRESTHA, MACROECONOMIC MODELING SPECIALIST
VIKAS RAJ SATYAL, ECONOMETRICIAN
ROJAN BAJRACHARYA, NATIONAL IT SPECIALIST
Asian Development Bank Project No.TA-7165-NEP

Strengthening Capacity for Macroeconomic Analysis (Component B)
Nepal Rastra Bank
Baluwater, Kathmandu, Nepal
For any clarifications, write to: das.tarun@hotmail.com
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The modeling team would like to express their gratitude to Mr. Shahid Parwez,
Program/ Project Implementation Officer, and Mr. Yubraj Acharya, Economics
Officer, ADB Nepal Resident Mission for providing all possible support for the
project; Mr. Ravindra Prasad Pande, Executive Director (Research), Nepal Rastra
Bank (NRB) and Chairman, Technical Committee on Modeling for strategic
guidance; Dr. Nephil Matangi Maskay, Director (Research), NRB and Focal Officer
for day-to-day supervision; Dr. Ram Sharan Kharel, Deputy Director (Research)
and Secretary, Technical Committee for valuable discussions and comments on
modeling; Mr. Suman Neupane, Assistant Director (Research) for logistics
support and all the concerned divisions in the Research Department, NRB for
their enthusiastic cooperation, keen interest, useful discussions and for providing
relevant data and documents.
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TEAM LEADER AND MACROECONOMIC MODELING SPECIALIST
CONTENTS
Contents Pages
1. Monthly Activity Report for the month of April 2010 3-5
2. Current status of works and proposed Work Plan for the second 6-19
phase (6 April-31 May 2010) presented at the Tripartite meeting
held on the 20th April 2010
3. Power point presentation on the Current status of works and 20-23

proposed Work Plan for the second phase (6 April-31 May 2010)
presented at the Technical Committee meeting held on the 26th
April 2010
4. An operational consistent macroeconomic accounting spreadsheet 24-43

model for Nepal- data base, test and calibration techniques, and
base line projections for the years 2010-2015
5. Appendix-1: Description of 160 variables 44-48
6. Appendix-2: Time series data for 1975-2009 and standard 49-71

descriptive statistics
7. Appendix-3: Linear time trends log (Yt) = α + β Time ; 72-94

log-linear equations log (Yt) = α + β log (GDPMPt) to estimate GDP
elasticity; and
projected growth rates for the years 2010-2015 along with ratios to
GDP at current market prices
8. Appendix-4: KPS Unit Root Tests for the variables 95-134
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TEAM LEADER AND MACROECONOMIC MODELING SPECIALIST
1. Works Completed during April 2010
During the second phase (6th April to 31st May 2010), it is propose to complete the works on
development and test and calibration of the upgraded Nepal Macroeconomic Mode. During
the month under review, significant progress has been made towards that goal.
Derailed discussions have been held with all the concerned divisions in the Research
Department of NRB and the model structures of five sub-models have been finalized. Time
series data on about 160 variables for 36 years 1975-2009 have been compiled and coded
in the EViews7. Unit Root Tests have been conducted for all variables and Ganger Causality
Tests have been conducted for meaningful pairs of observations.
Equations have been specified, tested and calibrated for two sub-models viz. the Real
Sectors and National Accounts, and the Government Finance Blocks. Tests and calibrations
for other sub-models are continuing.
An alternative operational consistent macroeconomic accounting spreadsheet model has

been made and calibrated for the base line scenario on the basis of secular time trends,
growth models and elasticity approach. The Model is presented in this report.
2. Reports produced during April 2010
The following reports have been prepared during the month. Copies of all these Reports
are attached herewith for ready reference. These reports have been prepared with full
support and close collaboration with the National Consultants and the concerned Divisions
of NRB.
1. Updated Work Plan of Tarun Das, International Consultant for Macroeconomic

Modeling during the Second phase of the project (6 April to 31 May 2010)- prepared for
the Tripartite Meeting held on the 20th April 2010.
2. Current status of works and work plan for the second phase- power point
presentation at the Technical Committee Meeting held on the 26th April 2010.
3. An operational consistent macroeconomic accounting spreadsheet model for

Nepal- data base, test and calibration techniques and base line projections for 2010-
2015.
2. Meetings attended during April 2010
Tarun Das, International Macroeconomic Modeling Specialist and team Leader attended
the following major meetings during April 2010:
(1) Day-to-day briefings by Dr. Maskay, Focal Officer for about half an hour every day;
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(2) Tuesday, the 6th April 2010 –0830-0900 Briefing meetings with Mr. Shahid Parwez,
Project Coordinator, and Ms. Shreejana, Finance Officer, ADB Nepal Resident
Office, Kamladi, Kathmandu.
(3) Tuesday, the 6th April 2010 –1000-1030 Briefing meetings with Dr. Kharel, Deputy
Director (Research) and Secretary, Technical Committee, NRB and Mr. Suman
Neupane, Assistant Director (Research), NRB.
(4) Wednesday, the 7th April 2010 –1130-1230 Briefing meetings with Mr. Ravindra
Pande, ED (Research), NRB and Chairman, Technical Committee.
(5) Thursday, the 8th April 2010 – Forenoon, Discussions and feedback sessions with
National Accounts and Prices Divisions of the Research department, NRB.
(6) Thursday, the 8th April 2010 – Afternoon, Discussions and feedback sessions with
BOP Division of the Research department, NRB.
(7) Sunday, the 11th April 2010- Forenoon, Discussions and feedback sessions with
Monetary and Financial Division of the Research department, NRB.
(8) Sunday, the 11th April 2010- Afternoon, Discussions and feedback sessions with
Government Finance Division of the Research department, NRB.
(9) Tuesday, the 20th April 2010 – 1600-1800 hours: Tripartite Meeting among NRB,
ADB and Consultants on the status of works and Work Plan for the second phase.
(10) Monday, the 26th April 2010 – 0930-1100 hours: Technical Committee Meeting
chaired by Mr. Ravindra Prasad Pande, ED (Research) and Chairman, Technical
Committee regarding current status of works and the Work Plan during the second
phase.
(11) Thursday, the 29th April 2010- 1500-1600 Discussions with Dr. Maskay and Dr.
Kharel along with all consultants and Mr. Neupane regarding the Visual Display
software
3. Ongoing Works and Outputs during May 2010
As per the proposed Work Plan, the following works are at different stages of completion
and the associated Outputs/ Reports will be produced in May 2010:
(a) Installation of EViews7 Software;
(b) Test and Calibration of all sub-models of the Nepal Macroeconomic Model;
(c) Integration of all Models, Simulations and Projections under baseline and alternative
scenario;
(d) Preparation of the Visual Display Software with the help of local vendors;
(e) Organization of five internal seminars for presentation of five sub-models by the
consultants;
(f) Organization of five internal seminars for presentation of revised sub-models by the
concerned divisions of the Research Division of the NRB;
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(g) Organization of the Final Workshop foe multi-stakeholders on the 28th/ 29th May
2010;
(h) Preparation of the final Report on the test and calibration techniques, projections and
simulations of the integrated Nepal Macroeconomic Model.
Submitted for favor of perusal.
(Tarun Das)
Macroeconomic Modeling Specialist and Team Leader
The 30th April 2010
ADB Project Coordinator
Copy to: Dr. Nephil Matangi Maskay, Director (Research), NRB and Focal Officer
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Nepal Rastra Bank

ADB Project on Nepal Macroeconomic Modeling
Subject: Updated Work Plan of Tarun Das, International Consultant for

Macroeconomic Modeling During the Second phase of the project
(6 April to 31 May 2010)
1. Status of the Project Works as on Sunday, the 18th April 2010
At the instance of Dr. Nephil Matangi Maskay, Director (Research), NRB and Focal Officer
for the Component B of the ADB TA Project, the International Consultant returned to
Kathmandu on Monday, the 5th April 2010 after more than five and half months of the
completion of the first phase in the middle of October 2009. He resumed works on Modeling
in the NRB Project Room with effect from Tuesday, the 6th April 2010, under the strategic
guidance of Mr. Mr. Ravindra Prasad Pandey, ED (Research Department), NRB and the
Chairman of the Technical Committee, and the day-to-day supervision and direction by Dr.
Nephil Matangi Maskay.
Mr. Suman Neupane, Assistant Director (Research) is working with the International
Consultant on continual basis and providing all logistics support. Dr. Ram Sharan Kharel,
Deputy Director (Research) and secretary (Technical Committee) is providing necessary
help and advice on the model. The local consultants Prof. Durga Lal Shrestha and Prof.
Vikash Raj Satyal have also started working in the NRB Project Room on two or three
working days in a week.
1.1 Procurement and Installation of the Requisite Hardware and Software
In the meantime, on the basis of ADB approval, orders have been placed by the NRB for the
procurement of hardware. Mr. Rojan Bajracharya, local consultant on IT, has initiated steps
to place orders for the procurement of the EVIEWs7 software from the designated vendor.
The installation of the hardware may take one more week, and the procurement and
installation of the software may not be complete until the end of April 2010. The non-
availability of the requisite hardware and software is a major constraint for the full
involvement of the local consultants and stakeholders in the process of test and calibration
of the model. However, the International Consultant has procured and installed EViews7 on
his lap top at his own expenditure and has already started test and calibration of the model
on his own laptop. EViews4 is available on the PC of Mr. Neupane for performing initial tests
of the model.
1.2 Comments on the Model by Concerned Divisions in NRB
Consultants received written consolidated comments on the model by the concerned

divisions through Dr. Maskay on the 7th April 2010. Subsequently during the first week, the
consultants held detailed discussions with the respective units on the model structures, data
base, and test and calibration techniques. Divisions basically agreed with the model
structures given in the inception report, but mentioned the role of additional variables for
more effective and realistic modeling and outlook.
During discussions, it was agreed that the ultimate model structure has to satisfy not only
the economic theories but also the standard statistical tests for specification and calibration
such as unit root test for stationary, granger causality tests and the co-integration tests in
addition to the usual goodness of fit statistics. Divisions also expressed their willingness to
be directly involved in the modeling process, particularly for their sub-model, from the very
beginning.
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1.3 Limitations of the NMEM and Steps Taken in the Upgraded Model
Annex-1 in this report summarizes the limitations of the ADB NMEM and the steps taken in
the Proposed Upgradation by us to rectify these limitations. Annex-2 presents the
differences of basic features between ADB NMEM and Upgraded NMEM in a tabular form.
In brief, the earlier NMEM was a demand-based model in the Keynesian framework and
ignored the role of supply for the real sectors and money and credits. Upgraded model has
specific blocks for the supply sides of GDP and money.
In addition, the upgraded model has fully developed the government finance and balance of
payments blocks which were very weak in the NMEM. For all the sub-models, the upgraded
model is more detailed than the ADB NMEM and uses more up-to-date data on national
accounts, BOP and government finance on the basis of revised base or revised IMF
concepts, which were not available at the time of building NMEM more than five years ago.
For example, the NMEM consisted of only 59 variables, out of which 37 were endogenous
(comprising 20 behavioral equations and 17 identities) and 22 were exogenous. On contrast,
the upgraded model comprises 151 variables, of which 139 variables are treated as
endogenous and determined within the sub-models, and only 12 variables are treated as
exogenous and determined outside the model. Out of 139 endogenous variables, 92
variables will be determined by equations and the residual 47 variables are identities to
ensure consistency and equilibrium within the sub-models.
We also propose use more modern techniques on the test and calibration. For example, the
NMEM did not use unit root test for stationarity, granger causality test for determining
directions of causality and the Cointegration test to examine whether the dependent and
independent variables are integrated at the same level. All these tests will be used for test
and calibration of the upgraded model.
1.4 Proposed Work Plan Submitted by the International Consultant
On the 13th April 2010, the International Consultant submitted a proposed work plan which is
reproduced in Annex-4. Dr. Maskay provided brief comments on the Work plan on the
Friday, the 16th April 2010, which are reproduced in Annex-5. This report presents a revised
Work plan in response to these comments.
2 Updated Work plan during the Second Phase (6 April-31 May 2010).
The week-wise updated work plan is presented in a matrix form in Table-1 below where first
column indicates the weekly time schedules, the second column indicates different activities
and the third column specifies the role of local consultants and the stakeholders in these
activities. The table is self-explanatory. We summarize below the proposed steps and the
role of local consultants and the stakeholders in the NRB in building up the model and in the
test and calibration of the model,
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2.1 Data Base for the Updated Model
As mentioned earlier, during the first week in the current phase, the local consultants
provided detailed data matrix for 151 variables for the period 1975-2009 to the international
consultant. These data have been supplemented by additional data supplied by the
concerned divisions. All these data have been processed and the relevant EViews7 Workfile
has been prepared on the lap top of the international consultant. With the help of local
consultants, data sets have been validated and some preliminary tests have been carried
out on EViews7.
2.2 Role of the Local Consultants
As per the terms of reference, the modeling work is a joint team work by the international
and national consultants. Although the international consultant has the major responsibility in
upgrading the model, the local consultants, who are also experts in their respective fields,
are supposed to provide necessary advice to the international consultant. In addition to
providing data, the local consultants are expected to provide economic, statistical and
econometric advice and help to the international consultant for building up the sub-models,
for test and calibration of the sub-models, for preparing the working papers, manuals and
guideline and for providing training and helping in capacity building and dissemination of
knowledge for the stakeholders. All these activities require physical presence of the local
consultants in the NRB Project room. It is, therefore, advisable that like the international
consultant, the local consultants also attend the NRB Project Office on full time basis on all
working days during the remaining six weeks of the second phase until the end of May 2010
and fully participate in the test and calibration of the model and in writing the report.
2.3 Role of the Economic Analysis Division (EAD)
The EAD will have the sole responsibility to update the upgraded model and to review it from
time to time and the conduct the relevant simulations and projections for monetary policy
planning and for providing inputs to for the preparation of the Annual Budgets and national
Development plans. For this purpose, Mr. Suman Neupane has been fully involved in the
day-to-day works and test and calibrations by the consultants. Mr. Neupane and Dr. Kharel
may also present a paper on the integrated model structure under the overall supervision by
Dr. Maskay and with the help by the consultants.
2.4 Role of the other Divisions
As mentioned earlier, the concerned divisions have expressed their willingness to be directly
involved along with the consultants for the test and calibration of the respective sub-model
and for preparation and presentation of the sectoral paper in the workshop.
2.5 Academic Visits
A separate report will be prepared on the possible academic visits or study tours on
modeling to other countries. As desired, in addition to the proposed Indian institutes,
possibility of attachment to other academic institutes in Malaysia and Korea will be explored.
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Table-1: Work Plan Matrix during Second phase (6 April 2010 to 31 May 2010)
Weeks in the Second Activities Specific Role of local
Phase consultants and other
(6 April-31 May 2010) divisions*
First week- Tuesday, 6th 1.1 Strategic guidance by Local consultants provided
April to Sunday, 11th April ED and Focal officer; detailed data base, collected
2010 1.2 Discussions on during the intermittent period,
consolidated comments and attended meetings with
by the concerned the respective divisions on
divisions, two days.
1.3 Detailed discussions
on data base, structure,
test and calibration of the
sub-models with various
divisions viz. national
accounts, BOP, Govt.
Finance, Monetary and
Prices Units;
1.4 Collection of relevant
data on sub-models
Second week- Monday, 12th 2.1 Submission of the Prof. Satyal attended NRB
April to Sunday, 18th April proposed work-plan; Project Room on three days
2010 2.2 Preparing Workfile on and Prof. Shrestha attended
EViews7 with collected on two days during the week.
data
2.3 Validation of the
Workfile and matching
the data with those
obtained from various
divisions;
2.4 Carrying out selected
test runs on Eviews7
along with local
consultants regarding
Unit Root, Granger
Causality and
Cointegration Tests and
fitting of sample
Regression lines;
2.5 Discussions on the
comments on the work-
plan received from Dr.
Maskay, Dr. Kharel and
Mr. Neupane;
2.6 Submission of revised
work-plan in response to
these comments.
Note: * International consultant Tarun Das and Mr. Suman Neupane will be involved on full
time basis for all activities and on all working days during the second phase.
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Third week- Monday, 19th 3.1Presentation of the • Local consultants will

April to Sunday, 25th April revised work-plan in the be fully involved in
2010 Tripartite meeting to be these activities;
held at 13=00 hours in • Local consultants
the NRB on Tuesday, the are requested to
20th April 2010; present their work-
3.2 Test and calibration of plan in the Tripartite
the supply side of the real meeting.
sector sub-model; • Two officers from the
3.3 Test and calibration of national accounts
the demand side of the division will be
real sector sub-model; involved in the test
3.4 Draft outline for the and calibration of the
preparation of the sub-model, and for
working paper on the real preparing a working
sector sub-model paper for presentation
indicating data base, in the Workshop.
model structure, test and
calibration techniques,
and the EViews7 output
on the best fitted relations
and their implications.
Fourth week- Monday, 26th 4.1 Test and calibration of • Local consultants will
April to Sunday, 2nd May the government finance be fully involved in
2010 sub-model; these activities;
4.2 Draft outline for the • Two officers from the
preparation of the govt finance division
working paper on the will be involved in the
govt finance sub-model test and calibration of
indicating data base, the sub-model, and
model structure, test, and for preparing a
calibration techniques, working paper for
and the EViews7 output presentation in the
on the best fitted relations Workshop.
and their implications.
Fifth week- Monday, 3rd May 5.1 Test and calibration of • Local consultants will
to Sunday, 9th May 2010 the prices and monetary be fully involved in
sector sub-models; these activities;
5.2Draft outline for the • Two officers each
preparation of the from prices, and the
working paper on these money and financial
sub-models indicating sector divisions will
data base, model be involved in the test
structure, test, calibration and calibration of the
techniques, and the sub-models and for
EViews7 output on the preparing a working
best fitted relations and paper for presentation
their implications. in the Workshop.
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Weeks in the Second Activities Specific Role of local

Phase consultants and other
(6 April-31 May 2010) divisions*
Sixth week- Monday, 10th 6.1 Test and calibration • Local consultants will
May to Sunday, 16th May of the BOP sub-model; be fully involved in
2010. 6.2 Draft outline for the these activities;
preparation of the • Two officers from the
working paper on the BOP division will be
BOP sub-model involved in the test
indicating data base, and calibration of the
model structure, test, and sub-model, and for
calibration techniques, preparing a working
and the EViews7 output paper for presentation
on the best fitted in the Workshop.
relations and their
implications.
Seventh week- Monday, 7.1 Integration of all sub- • Local consultants will
17th May to Sunday, 23rd models and conducting be fully involved in
May 2010. simulations and these activities;
projections of variables • Mr. Suman Neupane
for the medium term; will be fully involved
7.2 Preparation of the for preparing the
complete upgraded Working Paper for
model for presentation in presentation in the
the Workshop indicating Workshop.
data base, model
structure, test, and
calibration techniques,
and the EViews7 output
on the best fitted
relations and their
implications.
Eighth week- Monday, 24th 8.1Workshop is • Local consultants will
May to Sunday, 30th May proposed to be held on be fully involved in
2010. the 24th and 25th May these activities;
2010. • Research Division will
8.2 Detailed schedule of be fully involved in
the Workshop and the these activities.
participation will be
finalized and submitted
latter after consultation
with all stakeholders.
8.3 Sub-models and all
the papers will be
modified in the light of
comments obtained in
the Workshop.
st
Monday, 31 May 2010 Submission of the Revised • Local consultants will
Report on upgraded be fully involved in
modeling to the NRB, these activities;
Note: * International consultant Tarun Das and Mr. Suman Neupane will be involved on full time basis
for all activities and on all working days during the second phase.
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Annex-1
Limitations of the ADB NMEM and Proposed Upgradation
The following table summarizes the limitations of the earlier Nepal Macroeconomic Model
and the steps to be taken to rectify the limitations and upgrade the model in the proposed
model:
Limitations of the earlier Nepal Steps taken to rectify the limitations in the
Macroeconomic Model proposed upgraded model
a) Model considers only the demand side Supply side of GDP will be projected by the sub-
of GDP, but does not consider the sector wise econometric time trends as well as by
supply side of the real sectors. fitting Cobb-Douglas type production functions in the
framework of Solow technical progress
b) Money, credit and price blocks were Supply of different components of money will be
not fully developed and did not projected. Prices and exchange rates will be fully
consider the supply side and the role developed. Role of expectations will be considered
of expectations. in the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium
model.
c) The Government block was the Government finance block is being fully developed
weakest block with only equation for with separate equations for different components of
the non-tax revenue and all other expenditure and revenues.
variables were defined by simple
accounting identities.
d) Basically, all the fiscal variables such In the upgraded model, government expenditures
as taxes, current and capital and revenues are not treated as exogenous
expenditure are treated as policy variables, rather would be determined by the overall
variables and left to be decided by the prospects of the economy and given upper limits on
policy makers. This is not a very the fiscal deficits and other fiscal sustainability
convincing assumption because taxes measures.
and government expenditures also
depend on economic prospects,
composition of GDP and many other
variables.
e) Similarly, balance of payments block BOP block is being fully developed by endogenizing
were not well developed. It considered different components in the current and capital
only merchandise exports and accounts such as net services, net income,
merchandised imports but did not remittances, FDI inflows etc. External debt
endogenize the other components in sustainability measures will also be estimated.
the current account (such as services
and remittances). In the capital
account, loans and amortization was
endogenized, but the underlying
econometric relations are less
convincing.
f) There had been structural changes in The model is also being updated on the basis of
the economy and also changes in the data for the period 1975-2009 incorporating new
basic concepts of data for different data available for the national accounts, government
blocks. The model also needs to be finance and balance of payments, and to take care
updated and upgraded on the basis of of structural change of the economy over the years..
new data available for the national
accounts and balance of payments.
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Annex-2
Differences of Basic Features between ADB NMEM and Upgraded NMEM
The following table summarizes the basic characteristics of the earlier Nepal Macroeconomic
Model and the present upgraded Nepal Macroeconomic Model
Basic characteristics of the earlier Basic characteristics of the present
Nepal Macroeconomic Model upgraded Nepal Macroeconomic Model
a) The NMEM is a basically The upgraded NMEM considers demand and
Keynesian income-expenditure supply side of real, money and external
model in which the demand side sectors and attempts to provide partial
determines GDP. equilibrium in the macroeconomic
consistency accounting framework.
b) The supply side is not explicitly Supply sides of sectoral GDP, money supply
specified as the aggregate and external sectors are specifically
production function is not considered in the upgraded model.
estimated.
c) There are 5 building blocks in the There are also five blocks in the upgraded
NMEM viz. final demand, prices, model viz. (a) supply and demand for real
credit and money, government, sectors and National accounts; (b) supply
and the balance of payments and demand for money and credits; (c)
blocks. Final demand is the sum government finance with detailed projections
of private consumption, for major components of expenditure and
government consumption, private revenues; (d) balance of payments with
fixed investment, government detailed projections of major components in
fixed investment, increase in the current account and the capital and
stock or inventory, and net financial accounts; (e) prices, interest rates
exports. In NMEM, development ad exchange rates.
expenditure is a determinant for
the private fixed investment,
public fixed investment and public
consumption.
d) The NMEM is a mid-sized model The upgraded NMEM is a large sized model
with 37 equations. A medium- with 151 variables. It will provide more
sized model has an advantage in flexibility for the policy makers to analyze the
policy analysis as it incorporates impact of many variables o the fiscal,
more detail of the structure of the monetary, balance of payments and overall
economy. economic outlook.
e) The NMEM consists of 59 The upgraded model comprises 151
variables, out of which 37 are variables, of which 139 variables are treated
endogenous (20 behavioral as endogenous and determined within the
equations and 17 identities) and sub-models, and only 12 variables are
22 are exogenous. The NMEM treated as exogenous and determined
distinguishes policy variables outside the model. Out of 139 endogenous
from simple exogenous variables, variables, 92 variables will be determined by
as these policy variables are equations and the residual 47 variables are
determined by non-economic identities to ensure consistency and
forces or foreign sectors. Taxes, equilibrium within the sub-models.
regular expenditures,
development expenditures,
foreign borrowing, and the
exchange rate were taken as
policy variables in the NMEM.
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f) The NMM attempts to incorporate While the upgraded model also considers
Nepal’s strong economic ties with the predominance of external sector flows
India in international transactions with India, it makes an attempt to
although economic relationships endogenize many external sector flows such
with other countries are also as remittances, income, service, FDI etc.
becoming important.
g) The impact of the exchange rate The role of NEER and REER and the dollar
on trade in Nepal is quite limited exchange rate will be taken as determining
since the Nepalese rupee is factors for external trade and commerce
pegged to the Indian rupee and
India is the major trading partner
of Nepal. The exchange rate
variables were incorporated in the
trade equations since the changes
in the exchange rate with respect
to the US dollar can affect trade
with the rest of world by changing
the relative prices with other
countries.
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Annex-3
Proposed Work Plan During Second Phase (April-May 2010)
From: Tarun Das, international Consultant on Macroeconomic Modeling

To: Dr. Nephil Matangi Maskay, Director (Research) and Focal Officer
Subject: Proposed Work-plan for the Macroeconomic Modeling Team
1. Background
The modeling team comprising International Consultant Tarun Das and National Consultants
Prof. Durga Lal Shrestha and Prof. Vikash Raj Satyal submitted a detailed Inception Report
on Nepal Macroeconomic Modeling (in two parts) in the middle of October 2009. At the
instance of Dr. Nephil Matangi Maskay, Director, Research Division, Nepal Rastra Bank
(NRB) and Focal Officer, ADB Project No.TA7165NEP (Component B), the International
Consultant returned to Kathmandu on Monday, the 5th April 2010 and resumed works
modeling in the NRB Project Room with effect from Tuesday, the 6th April 2010.
Subsequently the local consultants also joined him for executing project assignments as per
the terms of reference.
2. Current Status of the Project

In the meantime, ADB approval has been obtained by the NRB for the procurement of the
requisite hardware and software required for the test, calibration and simulation of the
models. The Inception Report, particularly the proposed model structures of the Nepal
Macro-Econometric Model (NMEM) and a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model
(DSGEM), data base, test and calibration techniques were thoroughly examined by the
various divisions in the NRB viz. National Accounts Unit, Monetary Unit, Price Unit,
Government Finance Unit and the Balance of Payments Unit. Consolidated comments of
these units on the model structures were provided by Dr. Nephil Matangi Maskay to the
consultants on the 7th April 2010.
Subsequently, the consultants held detailed discussions with the respective units on the
model structures, data base, and test and calibration techniques. It is well known that the
proposed model has an integrated model with five sub-models viz. real sector, prices and
interest rates, BOP, government finance, monetary and fiscal sectors.
Comments given by the units are very constructive and vary valuable for modifying the
model structures. However, in some cases, the required data are not available. During
detailed discussions with the Divisions, it was agreed that the ultimate model structure has to
satisfy not only the economic theories but also the standard statistical tests for specification
and calibration such as unit root test for non-stationary or stochasticity or randomness of the
variables, granger causality tests and the co-integration tests in addition to the usual
goodness of fit statistics. So at this stage it is not advisable to argue theoretically regarding
the exact form of equations. It will be more useful to start the test and calibration procedures
on EVIEWs with actual set of data.
It was also agreed by all the units that they would like to be involved directly in the modeling
process and activities, particularly for their sub-model, from the very beginning. For this, they
would like to nominate one or two officers from their units to work with the modeling team for
about a week for developing the sub-model. They would not only provide advice and
feedback for the specification, test and calibration of the respective sub-model but also
prepare a detailed working paper on the sub-model under the guidance of the modeling
team for presentation in the NMEM Workshop to be organized at the end of May 2010. Such
arrangement will not only help in capacity building and transfer of knowledge, which is the
basic purpose of the ADB funded project on modeling, but also enable the respective
15
Divisions and the NRB as a whole to own the model and update and upgrade it in future
without the help of consultants.
3. Proposed Work Plan for completing the Project
3.1 Work Plan for upgrading NMEM during second phase (6 April to 31 May
2010)
On the basis of above discussion and further consultation with the national consultants, the
international consultant would like to propose the following Work Plan for consideration by
the Focal officer:
a) Hands on Training on application of EViews7 for NMEM for a day- Before

starting the test and calibration of the respective sub-models, the consultants would
organize a hands-on training program for a day on the introduction of EViews-7 and
on the Granger Causality Test, Unit Root Test and the Co-Integration Test for all
participants. Consultants will also specify the outline of the working paper to be
prepared for different sub-models.
b) Test and calibration of five sub-models- five weeks- Following Hands-on training,
subsequent five weeks will be devoted for actual specification, test and calibration of
the five sub-models of the Macroeconomic Model. As mentioned above, this will
require one week for each sub-model.
c) Integration, Simulation and Medium Term Projection of the complete Model-
one week- Then we consolidate and integrate all the sub-models for the presentation
in the Workshop.
d) Organizing a Workshop on upgraded NMEM- two days- 23-24 May 2010
e) Finalizing the NMEM on the basis of comments in the Workshop- one week-
Last week of May 2010.
Involvement of National Consultants: In formulation of this Work Plan, it is assumed that
the National Consultants Prof. Durga Lal Shrestha and Prof. Vikash Raj Satyal, like the
International Consultant, will be available on full time basis on all working days in the NRB
Project Room for at least consecutive seven weeks during this phase. This implies only 35
working days at maximum for each of them.
3.2 Building DSGE Model- two person-months in the third phase,

Exact timing will be decided by the NRB
During the current phase the consultants will be fully pre-occupied for upgrading the
NMEM and organizing the Workshop. Depending on the availability of time, they might
provide some directions towards modifying the DSGE Model. But the exact model will
be built, tested, calibrated, simulated and projected during the two months period of the
third phase.
3.3 Final phase- for winding up the Project- one person month
The residual time of one person month will be fully devoted to prepare the terminal report for
the project along with preparation of detailed guidelines and manuals for both the models.
4. Human Capacity Building
Consultants agree with the views of the NRB that the hands-on training to be conducted by
the consultants and the Workshops to be organized, as mentioned above, are necessary but
not sufficient to communicate models to the stakeholders and effective transfer of
knowledge.
16
For wider exposure of the modelers, it is proposed that an appropriate training program for a
group of selected six officers engaged in modeling, comprising one officer from each sub-
model and one from the research division may be devised in consultation with Dr. Maskay,
Focal officer. In this respect, an academic visit by the Group for about a week to the Reserve
Bank of India (RBI) or to the Indira Gandhi Development Research Institute (IGDRI) in
Mumbai or to the Institute of Economic Growth (IEG) and the Delhi School of Economics
(DSE), who are engaged in the development of the UN-Link Model for India or to the
National Council for Applied Economic Research (NCAER) in New Delhi, which has
developed a Computerized General Equilibrium (CGE) Model for the Indian Finance
Ministry, may be explored. ADB will be requested to fund this academic visit, which is
considered to be an integral part of the Capacity Building Activity under the project.
5. Procurement and Installation of the Hardware and Software
Required approval has come from the ADB and the Consultants are willing and ready to
provide all possible help and advice for this activity. Urgent administrative arrangements are
necessary within the NRB. In the meantime, international consultant is working with his own
laptop on which he has installed EViews7 at his own expenditure. Until the required
hardware and software are installed in the project room, suitable arrangements may please
be made for the local consultants so that they can perform their duties more productively
and more efficiently.
6. Action Points
6.1 Requesting Divisions to nominate two officers
Dr. Maskay, Focal Officer, may please like to request formally each of the Division Heads to
nominate two officers from their division who could be directly involved on the modeling
works for about a week for the respective sub-model. The division head may also please
indicate the tentative week when they will be available for one day hands-on training on
applications of EViews7 and subsequently for a week for actual test and calibration of the
model.
6.2 In-Principle Approval from the ADB
(a) It is proposed that a Workshop on Upgrading NMEM will be organized on 22-23 May
2010 after completion of the test and calibration of sub-models and the core model
during the previous six weeks. A detailed schedule for the Workshop will be prepared
and submitted to ADB. Tentatitavely, the Workshop will have six working sessions
(five sessions on five sub models and one session for the core integrated model) in
addition to an inaugural session and a concluding session. For five sub-models, five
working papers are proposed to be prepared and presented by the respective units
under the guidance of the consultants, while the consultants will consolidate the sub-
models and carry out the necessary simulation and forecasting for the integrated
model and prepare and present the integrated model in the Workshop. Consultants
are of the views that such arrangement will help in active participation of the
stakeholders in modeling and effective capacity building cum hands-on training. In
principle approval of the ADB is requested for the following:
(i) A payment of a token honorarium of US$200 each to joint authors on each

sub model for preparation and presentation of the working paper on the sub
model in recognition of their additional and hard work for the project in
addition to their normal duties in the NRB.
17
(ii) A payment of a token honorarium of US$50 each to the 6 chairmen of

different sessions in recognition of their participation in the workshop and for
providing chairman’s summary report and concluding observations;
(iii) A payment of a token honorarium of US$25 each to the 6 discussants in

different sessions in recognition of preparation of written comments on each
sub-model.
(iv) A payment of a token honorarium of US$50 each to three reporters to provide

written summary of proceedings covering three/two sessions each.
(v) Total estimated honorarium for the above activities are indicated below:
Items Rate in U$ Total in US$
1. Honorarium to 10 authors (two for each 200 per author 2000

of five sub-models)
2. Honorarium to 6 chairmen (one for 50 per chairman 300
each of five sub-models and one core
model)
3. Honorarium to 6 discussants (one for 25 per discussant 150
each of five sub-models and one core
model)
4. Honorarium to 3 reporters (covering 50 per reporter 150
five sub-models, one core model,
opening session and closing session)
Total estimated honorarium 2600
(b) Academic Visit of the Modeling Group to India for a Week

For the academic visit to India as mentioned in 4 above, in principle approval from the ADB
is sought for funding the following expenditure:
Items Rate in U$ Total in US$
1. Return economy class air fare from 500 per person 3000
Kathmandu to Delhi/ Mumbai for six
officers
2. Per diem for 6 days for six officers 150 per person per 5400
day
Total 8400
Submitted for favor of consideration
(Tarun Das)
The 13th April 2010
18
Annex-4
Comments on Proposed Work-Plan
Strengthening Capacity for Macroeconomic Analysis (Component B).
Ref: Comments on Proposed Work-Plan
Dear Dr. Das,
It's our great pleasure to receive your proposed work-plan which covers the period 6 April to
31 May, 2010. It is the period to upgrade and update NMEM model. The work-plan
comprises the status of the project; work guideline to complete the project; human capacity
building plan through training and participative approach; and learning through academic
visits and workshops.
We reviewed and discussed the proposed work-plan in our economic analysis division
(EAD). Comments that were raised during the discussion and review process have been
presented point wise, which are as follows.
a) While the proposed work-plan is in the concise form, it would also be better if the
detailed work-plan, including day-to-day division of works for the modeling team, is
provided available to us. This would both facilitate for preparing a progress report as
well provide a road-map to complete the work within a given time frame. We would
request that this be submitted in a matrix format.
b) The work plan does a thorough job in describing the involvement of respective
divisions' in calibrating and report writing to each blocks of macroeconomic model.
However, it is not clearly specified the role, involvement and necessary contribution
of EAD. This may be such as having EAD the sole responsibility to update and
upgrade the macroeconomic model.
c) In work plan, there is a need to have a clear picture of the difference between old
NMEM and upgraded NMEM. In this regard, it is requested that this analysis be
provided, at the greatest detail possible such as equation by equation.
d) Regarding the academic visits, given the budget, you are requested to expand you
proposal and manage the visits to institution's beyond India, such as to Korea;
Indonesia; Thailand etc., which have developed similar macroeconomic models.
It goes without saying that your discretion is required in sharing this information (such as in
regard to academic visit).
You are requested to revise your work plan accordingly for necessary discussion during the
forthcoming tripartite meeting, on April 20, 2010 at 13.00 in NRB.
Nephil Matangi Maskay, PhD

Director, Research Department &
Focal Person, ADB Project No. TA7165NEP (Component B)
April 16, 2010
19
Power Point Presentation at the Technical Committee Meeting

On Monday, the 26th April 2010
Progress Report on Modeling

as on 26 April 2010
Tarun Das, Team Leader
And National Consultants
Prof. Durga Lal Shrestha
Dr. Vikas Raj Satyal
Mr. Rojan Bajracharya
Contents of presentation
1. Basic Tasks of the Project
2. Works completed in the First Phase
3. Proposed Works in Second Phase
4. Current Status of Works
5. Work Plan for the Second Phase
6. Role of National Consultants
7. Role of concerned divisions of NRB
8. Organizing Workshop
9. Proposed Study Tours
10. Concluding Observations
1. Basic Tasks of the Project

a) To upgrade Nepal Macroeconomic Model
b) To build up a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for the NRB
c) Facilitate Installation of Software/ hardware
d) Prepare User’s Manuals and Guidelines
e) Conduct multi-stakeholders’ workshops
f) Provide on-the-job training to the stakeholders
g) Prepare Terminal Report s
h) Basic Tasks of the Project
2. Works completed in the First Phase

a) During the first phase (20 August to 15 October 2009) consultants prepared the
Inception Report in two parts
b) The Reports provided basic structures of upgraded NMEM and DSGEM along
with desired software and hardware requirements, data base, and test and
calibration techniques.
c) The report was presented in an internal seminar of NRB on the last day.
3. Proposed Works in Second Phase
Second phase started on the 6th April 2010 and is expected to continue until the end of
May 2010. Major tasks include the following:
a) Installation of hardware and software
b) To build up, test, calibrate, simulate the upgraded NMEM and make projections for
the medium term
c) To prepare Manuals, guidelines and report on the upgraded NMEM
d) Capacity building cum hands-on training on NMEM for the stakeholders
e) To organize Workshop on NMEM
20
f) Works on DSGEM and Terminal Report will be completed in next two phases
spanning over three person months.
4.1 Current Status of Works
• Consultants received written comments on the models by concerned divisions of the

NRB. These were followed up by detailed discussions with them.
• Structures of the sub-models of the NMEM have broadly been agreed on the basis of
economic theories.
• But the actual structures will depend on the standard statistical tests for specification
and calibration such as unit root test for stationary, granger causality tests and the
co-integration tests in addition to the usual goodness of fit statistics.
4.2 Data Base for Upgraded NMEM

• Upgraded model considers both supply and demand sides of real, monetary and
external sectors, and is a large-sized model.
• The earlier NMEM consisted of 59 variables (comprising 20 equations, 17 identities
and 22 exogenous variables).
• On contrast, the proposed upgraded model consists of 157 variables (92
equations, 47 identities and 18 exogenous variables).
4.3 Status on Data Base for NMEM

• Local consultants provided detailed data matrix for 157 variables for 36 years
spanning over the period 1975-2009.
• These data have been supplemented and updated by additional data supplied by the
concerned divisions in the NRB.
• All data have been processed, cross-checked, validated and the relevant EViews7
Workfile has been prepared.
• Unit root tests for trend stationarity have been performed for all variables.
• Granger causality tests have also been conducted for many variables.
4.4 Hardware and Software

• Five Laptops have been procured and configuration have been verified by National IT
Expert.
• Five desktop PCs are in transit and hopefully would arrive by the end of April 2010.
• Order is being placed for the procurement of Eviews7 software from the designated
vendor for the region.
• Non-availability of the hardware and software is a major constraint for full
involvement of the national consultants and stakeholders in the process of test and
calibration of the model.
21
5.1 Proposed Work Plan for the remaining weeks
1-2 First two weeks works discussed.

3. Third week- Monday, 19th April to Sunday, 25th April 2010
• Test and calibration of the Real sectors supply and demand sub-models have been
completed.
4. Fourth week- Monday, 26th April to Sunday, 2nd May 2010
• Test and calibration of the Government finance sub-model;
5. Fifth week- Monday, 3rd May to Sunday, 9th May 2010
• Test and calibration of the Prices and monetary sector sub-models;
• Sixth week- Monday, 10th May to Sunday, 16th May 2010.

• Test and Calibration of the BOP sub-model;
• Seventh week- Monday, 17th May to Sunday, 23rd May 2010.
• Integration of all sub-models and conducting simulations and projections of variables
for the medium term;
• Preparation of the complete upgraded model for presentation in the Workshop

• Eighth week- Monday, 24th May to Sunday, 30th May 2010.
• Workshop is proposed to be held on the 24th and 25th May 2010.
• Sub-models and all the papers will be modified in the light of comments obtained in
the Workshop.
• Monday, 31st May 2010
• Submission of the Revised Report on upgraded modeling to the NRB,
6. Role of National Consultants
• National Consults will be fully involved with the test and calibration of the sub-
models, simulation and projections of the core model, preparation and presentation
of the working papers, manuals and guidelines, capacity building and hands-on
training on the models.
• National IT Expert, along with local vendors, will develop user-friendly
Macroeconomic Page on the Model data base, fitted equations and results, and
updating mechanism.
7.1 Role of the Economic Analysis Division (EAD) of NRB
• The EAD will have the sole responsibility to update the upgraded model and to
review it from time to time.
• For this purpose, Mr. Suman Neupane, Assistant Director, has been fully involved in
the day-to-day works and test and calibrations of the sub-models.
• Mr. Neupane and Dr. Kharel may also present a paper on the integrated model
structure under the overall supervision by Dr. Maskay and with the help of the
consultants.
7.2 Role of other Divisions of NRB
• In our initial work-plan, it was proposed that at least one representative of a division
will be directly involved for the test and calibration of the respective sub-model and
for preparation and presentation of the sectoral paper in the workshop.
• All the divisions expressed their willingness for this proposal.
22
• But, due to preoccupation with the preparation of inputs for the budget and the
Economic Survey, divisions did not get time to be involved with the modeling works.
8. Organizing Workshop
• It is proposed to organize a two-day Workshop on 24-25 May 2010 for presentation

of the sub-models and core models.
• I have proposed to the ADB that they may approve the payment of token honorarium
to all the authors of the papers, chairman and discussants of various sessions in
recognition of their valuable contributions to the Workshop in addition to their normal
duties.
• In a tripartite meeting held on 20 April 2010 at the NRB, the ADB has expressed their
in principle approval for the proposal and has requested for a detailed proposal.
9. Proposed Study Tours

a) In the same tripartite meeting I have also requested ADB to partially or fully fund
some study visits by the concerned officers in the NRB who are directly involved in
building and upgrading the models.
b) ADB has expressed their in-principle approval for the proposal, but has requested for
a detailed proposal on the subject.
10. Concluding Observations
• Despite various constraints, prospects of building up meaningful and operational

economic models are bright.
• However, it would have been more effective if the concerned divisions can put up
some time at least for the preparation of the proposed Workshop.
• Consultants are also willing to provide hands-on training on modeling and
applications of EViews7 to the concerned stakeholders. Availability of their time is the
prime issue.
23
AN OPERATIONAL CONSISTENT MACROECONOMIC ACCOUNTING

SPREADSHEET MODEL FOR NEPAL-
DATA BASE, CALIBRATION TECHNIQUES AND BASE LINE PROJECTIONS
TARUN DAS
MACROECONOMIC MODELING SPECIALIST AND TEAM LEADER
IN ASSOCIATION WITH
DURGA LAL SHRESTHA, NATIONAL MODELING SPECIALIST
VIKAS RAJ SATYAL, NATIONAL ECONOMETRICIAN
ROJAN BAJRACHARYA, NATIONAL IT SPECIALIST
30 APRIL 2010
Nepal Rastra Bank and ADB Nepal Resident Office

Kathmandu, Nepal
24

CONTENTS
1. An operational consistent macroeconomic accounting spreadsheet 24-43

model for Nepal- data base, test and calibration techniques, and
base line projections for the years 2010-2015
2. Appendix-1: Description of 160 variables 44-48
3. Appendix-2: Time series data for 1975-2009 and standard 49-71

descriptive statistics
4. Appendix-3: Linear time trends log (Yt) = α + β Time ; 72-94

log-linear equations log (Yt) = α + β log (GDPMPt) to estimate GDP
elasticity; and
projected growth rates for the years 2010-2015 along with ratios to
GDP at current market prices
5. Appendix-4: KPS Unit Root Tests for the variables 95-134
25

1. Analytical Framework and Model Structure

1.1 Purpose and Objectives
The basic purpose of this exercise is to build an operational macroeconomic model for Nepal
in the consistent macroeconomic accounting framework, depicting the underlying structure,
trends and interrelations among major macroeconomic variables. As compared with the
upgraded Nepal Macroeconomic Model, which is being calibrated on EViews7 on the basis
of more advanced econometric techniques, this is a spreadsheet model calibrated on Excel
file on the basis of simple econometric relations. However, this model satisfies the basic
statistical and econometric tests for modeling, and has the following advantages:
(1) The model is based on simple economic concepts viz. trend growth rates and elasticity of
a variable with respect to GDP at current market prices;
(2) It is a spreadsheet model and can be calibrated very easily on Excel Files;
(3) As mentioned above, the model satisfies the basic econometric tests on calibration.
First of all, time series data on 150 macroeconomic variables have been collected and
processed on Excel file. The data along with standard descriptive statistics are given in the
Appendix-1 of this Report. Then, we have carried out the KPSS Unit Root tests on EViews7
for all the variables used in our model and observed that most of the variables are trend
stationary within 5 percent level of significance. The results are indicated in Appendix-3 of
this Report. Therefore, the standard least squares method can be used to fit the regression
lines. Then we test the Granger causality test and observe that the GDP at current market
prices granger causes most of the macroeconomic variables in the government finance,
balance of payments, and monetary and financial blocks. Therefore, we can use GDP
elasticity for forecasting a variable provided we get a good fit relating a variable to GDP at
market prices.
Brief Description of the Methodology

Derailed methodology for tests and calibration is discussed in section 3. Here we present a
brief introduction to the methodology. First of all, different components of GDP are projected
on the basis of secular growth rates observed in the past. Then, GDP at current market prices
is taken as the leading factor to project major macroeconomic variables in various sub-
models, and we estimate the elasticity of a variable with respect to GDP by fitting log-linear
functions log (Yt) = α + β log (GDPMPt). We observe that both the exponential time trends and
log-linear functions provide very good fits as judged by R2. The results are indicated in the
Appendix-2 of this Report.
Analytical Framework
The same analytical framework as described in the Inception Report for the Upgraded Macro
Economic Model prepared in October 2009 is used for this Macroeconomic Accounting
Spreadsheet Model. The analytical framework is consistent with the basic concepts and
interrelations under the UN System of National Accounts (UN-SNA), and the IMF
Government Finance Statistics (GFS), Balance of Payments (BOP) Statistics and the
Monetary-Financial Statistics (MFS). Thus, the model consists of five inter-related accounts
as indicated below:
(i) Real Sector (National Accounts)
(ii) Government Sector (Fiscal Account)
26
(iii) External Sector (Balance of Payments Account)

(iv) Monetary Sector (Monetary and Financial Account), and
(v) Prices, Interest and Exchange Rates.
1.2 Model Structure and Analytical Framework
The basic structures of these sub-models and their interrelations are depicted in the form of a
flow diagram in Box-1.1. The linkages between key aggregates of the national accounts and
the balance of payments flows and government finance statistics can be summarized
algebraically within a savings/investment framework. Let us use the following symbols,
National Accounts System (NAS)
GDPFC = Real GDP at constant FC = ΣGDPSector

GDPSector = Sector (Agriculture, industry, services) GDP at FC
C = private consumption expenditure
G = government consumption expenditure
I = gross domestic investment
S = gross saving
X = exports of goods and (non-factor) services
M = imports of goods and (non-factor) services
NFY = net factor income from abroad
GDP = gross domestic product
GNP = gross national product = GDP + NFY
GNDY = gross national disposable income + Net Transfer
On the supply side, overall GDP equals the sectoral value added for different sectors such as
agriculture, industry and services. In our model, industry has four sub-sectors viz. mining and
quarrying, manufacturing, construction and public utilities (comprising electricity, gas and
water supply). Service has four sub-sectors viz. (a) wholesale and retail trade, hotels and
restaurants; (b) transport and communications; (c) financial services and real estate; and (d)
social sectors comprising health, education, public administration, religious, personal and
community services. GDP for the sub-sectors are projected at both constant factor cost and
current market prices.
On the demand side, GDP at factor cost equals government consumption, private
consumption, investment and inventories, and exports less imports. These items are projected
at current basic prices. By adding indirect taxes less subsidies, we get the GDP at current
market prices.
GNI equals GDP plus Net Factor Income from abroad, while Gross National Disposable
Income equals GNI plus Net Transfer.
27
Balance of Payments (BOP)
CAB = current account balance in the balance of payments = TB + SB + FIB + NCT

RT = reserve asset transactions
TB = Merchandise trade balance = Merchandise Exports – Merchandise Imports
SB = Non-factor service balance (travel, tourism, financial, business, ICT etc.)
FIB = Factor income balance (interest, dividends, wages, rent, royalties etc.)
NCT = Net current transfer (official grants, private grants, remittances)
NKT = net capital transfers
NPNNA = net purchases of non-produced, non-financial assets
NFI = net foreign investment or net lending/ net borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world
NKA = net capital and financial account (i.e., all capital and financial transactions excluding
reserve assets)
Government Finance Statistics (GFS)
R = Revenue = T + NT
T = Tax revenue
NT = Non-Tax revenue
GR = Grants
GEXP = Government expenditure and net lending = G + GK
G = government consumption expenditure
GK = Government capital expenditure and net lending = GCE + ND
GCE = Government capital expenditure
ND = Net lending
GFD = Gross Fiscal Deficit
= (R+GR) - GEXP
Monetary-Financial Statistics (MFS)
MD = Demand for money = NFA+CRG + CRP + OI

MS = Supply of money = DD + TD + CN
NFA = Net foreign assets
CRG = Credits to the government and public enterprises
CRP = Credits to the private sector
OI = Other items
DD = Demand deposits
TD = Time deposits
CN = Currency and notes in circulation
Prices, Interest Rates and Exchange Rates

CPI = Consumer Price Index
WPI = Wholesale Price Index
GDPDF = GDP Deflator
INT = Rate of interest
PLR = Prime lending rate
FDR = Fixed deposit rate
ER = Exchange rate of Nepalese Rupee per US dollar
28
The Macroeconomic Balance Equations stand as follow:

GDP = C + G + I + X–M (1)
(X–M = balance on goods and services in the balance of payments)
GNP = GDP + NFY (2)
CAB = X – M + NFY+NCT (3)
GNDY = C + G + I + CAB (4)
GNDY = C + G + S (5)
Equating (4) and (5) we get:

S – I = CAB i.e. saving-investment gap (resource gap) equals CAB (6)
S – I + (NKT – NPNNA) = CAB + (NKT–NPNNA) = NFI (7)
(NKT – NPNNA) = balance on the capital account of the balance of payments.
Interrelationship between the internal and external sectors of an economy can be seen in
greater detail by distinguishing between private and public sectors. Private saving and
investment (Sp and Ip) and government saving and investment (Sg and Ig) are identified as:
S–I = Sp+Sg–Ip–Ig (8)
Use of the definition of the external current account from equation (1) then gives:
CAB = (Sp–Ip) + (Sg–Ig) = S–I (9)
Equation (9) shows that the private savings-investment balance plus the government fiscal
balance equals the current account balance. It also implies that, if government sector
dissaving is not offset by net saving of the private sector, the current account will be in
deficit. More specifically, the equation shows that the budgetary position of the government
(Sg-Ig) may be an important factor influencing the current account balance.
Government deficit is financed by borrowing from the domestic sector, borrowing from the
external sector and borrowing from the central bank. All these factors have influences on the
domestic capital and financial markets and also on the balance of payments.
Economists generally agree that a persistent fiscal deficit may ultimately spill over the
current account deficit in the balance of payments. On the converse, a sustained current
account deficit may reflect persistent government spending in excess of receipts, and such
excess spending may suggest that fiscal tightening is the appropriate policy action to tackle
both fiscal and balance of payments problems.
We also know that

CAB = NKA+RT = S–I (10)
Equation (10) shows that the current account balance is necessarily equal (with sign reversed)
to the net capital and financial account balance plus reserve asset transactions. This
relationship shows that the net provision, as measured by the current account balance, of
resources to or from the rest of the world must—by definition—be matched by a change in
net claims on the rest of the world.
It may be useful to rewrite CAB as:
S–I = CAB = TB+SB+FIB+NCT = NKA+RT, where (11)
Where TB, SB, FIB and NCT stand for trade balance, services balance, factor incomes
balance and transfer balance respectively.
29
Box-1.1: Basic Structures of Macroeconomic Sub-models and Inter-linkages
REAL SECTOR CENTRAL GOVERNMENT

National Accounts Revenues
• Taxes and non-taxes
GDP at current market prices • Grants
• Private consumption Expenditures
• General govt. consumption • Current
• Capital
• General govt. investment Overall balance
• Private investment Financing
• Exports of goods and • Domestic financing (net)
Non-factor services • Banking system
• Imports of goods and • Nonbanking sector
Non-factor services • External financing (net)
MONETARY SECTOR
Balance of Payments Monetary Authorities
CURRENT ACCOUNT • Net Foreign Assets
• Exports of goods and Net domestic assets:
Non-factor services • Net credit to central
• Imports of goods and govt.
Non-factor services • Credit to banks
• Factor services (net) • Other items (net)
• Transfers (net) • Reserve money
• Official
• Private
Deposit Money Banks
Banks' reserves
• Net Foreign Assets
CAPITAL ACCOUNT Net domestic assets:
• Net credit to central
Direct investment
govt.
Medium/long-term • Credit to private sector
capital (net) • Other items (net)
Short-term capital (net) • Liabilities to monetary
Overall balance authorities
Change in net foreign Private sector deposits
assets
30
1.3 Inter-Sectoral Financial Transactions Matrix
In a paper entitled “Balances, Imbalances and Fiscal Targets- a New Cambridge Model”
Wynne Godley and Alex Izurieta of the Cambridge Endowment for Research in Finance
(CERF), University of Cambridge used a simplified accounting matrix to illustrate the
interrelations of financial transactions among various sectors of the economy. They
argued that macroeconomic analysis would be easier if the main income and expenditure
flows comprising the GDP are arranged in a double entry format as in Table-1. The two-
way table indicates clearly the transactions among any two economic agents viz.
producers, consumers, government, and rest of the world. The matrix shows how the gap
between receipts and outlays of any sector implies an equivalent rise or fall in its net
acquisition of financial assets.
Table-1: A Simplified Macro Transactions Matrix

Income/ Production Governmen Rest of Total
Expenditure t the World
1.Pvt. Exp -C +C 0
2.Gov. Exp +G -G 0
3.Exports +X -X 0
4.Imports -M +M 0
5.GDP +Y -Y 0
6. Taxes, -TP +T -TF 0
Fact. Pay.
7.Financial +NAFA 0 +PSNB -BP 0
Balances = Y-C-TP =T-G =M-X-TF
In this matrix the national income identity is shown, running vertically down in column 2,
as the appropriation account of a postulated production sector. It says that gross domestic
product, Y, is equal to private expenditure, C plus government expenditure, G, plus
exports, X, less imports, M. Every item in the GDP identity has a counterpart with the
opposite sign in some other column. Taxes less transfers, T, are received or paid by the
government; net property income, taxes and transfers, TF and TP, are paid by
respectively the external and private sectors. The total in line 7 shows that public
borrowing, PSNB, equals the private net acquisition of financial assets, NAFA, (that is
saving less investment, or net saving) minus the balance of payments surplus, BP or plus
the deficit. Wynne Godley and Alex Izurieta illustrated the analysis with the help of UK
and USA data. One important conclusion of the analysis is that the financial balances
(relative to income flows) must stay within certain limits for maintaining the
sustainability of public debt over time. This in turn implies that that a strict monitoring of
these basic balances is essential for formulation of effective macro stabilization policies.
31
2 Data Base
The basic data for 160 variables2 for the years 1975-20093 are obtained from the official sources.
Basic data on national accounts are obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), Nepal
supplemented by the data from the Nepal Rastra Bank. Data on government finance statistics are
obtained from the Nepal Ministry of Finance and the Nepal Rastra Bank. Data on monetary and
financial statistics and the balance of payments statistics are obtained from the Nepal Rastra Bank
supplemented by the data from the International Monetary Fund. Data on sectoral employment and
investment are estimated by the national consultants Prof. Durga Lal Shrestha and Prof. Vikas Raj
Satyal by using standard interpolation and extrapolation techniques on the basis of limited data
obtained from official sources. So the data base can be considered to be authentic and reliable.
2.1 Data Base on National Accounts for 1975-2009
It presents time series data on sectoral GDP at both current and constant 2000-01 prices in
national currency (millions of Nepalese rupee) for the years 1975-2009. It has data on both
broad sectors of the economy viz. agriculture, industry and services, and sub-sectors within
these broad sectors. No sub-sector is considered for Agriculture due to lack of long term
series, while industry is sub divided into four sub-sectors viz. mining and quarrying,
manufacturing, construction and public utilities (comprising electricity, gas and water
supply), and services sector is sub divided into four subsectors viz. wholesale and retail trade
and hotels and restaurants; transport, storage and communications; finance and insurance and
real estate; and social services (comprising health, education, public administration,
community, social and personal services).
2.2 Data on Balance of Payments for 1975-2009
Data on Balance of Payments for the years 1975-2009 are obtained from the Nepal Rastra
Bank, supplemented by the data from the IMF. Necessary adjustments have been made to
take care of changes in the basic concepts, definitions and classifications over the years.
2.3 Data on Monetary Survey and Prices for 1975-2009
Data on Monetary Survey, Financial Statistics and CPI for the years 1975-2009 are obtained
from the Research Department of the Nepal Rastra Bank.
2.4 Data on Government Fiscal Operations for 1975-2009
Basic data on government financial statistics for the years 1975-2009 are taken from the
Nepal Rastra Bank supplemented by the data from the Ministry of Finance. Necessary
adjustments have been made to take care of changes in the basic concepts, definitions and
classifications over the years.
2.5 Basic Presumptions for Projections
2
The list of variables with descriptions is presented in Annex-1 in the proposed work plan.
3
The year 1975 refers to the fiscal year ending with mid-July 1975 i.e. the fiscal year from mid-July 1974 to
mid-July 1975. Similarly, the year 2009 refers to the fiscal year ending with mid-July 2009 i.e. the fiscal year
from mid-July 2008 to mid-July 2009.
32
As discussed in the Inception Report on Modeling prepared in October 2009, despite the
global financial crisis and economic recession, the Nepalese economy performed well in
2008 and achieved real growth of 5.3 percent aided by agricultural growth at 4.7 percent,
industrial growth at 1.8 percent and services growth at 7 percent. Inflation was contained at
7.7 percent and there was a surplus on the current account of the balance of payments. The
reasons for no significant adverse impact of global financial crisis on the Nepalese economy
include the following:
(a) Nepal’s financial sector has limited external liabilities and assets.
(b) Although its external current account has close links with the rest of the world, the
major link is with India which maintained relatively high growth rates during the
crisis period.
(c) Nepal and India also maintained normal trade links during the crisis period.
Although the global slowdown did not have much adverse impact on the Nepal’s financial
sector, the real sector growth in 2008/09 was affected adversely by the domestic factors such
as unfavorable monsoon, power shortage and labor unrest. The Central Bureau of Statistics
(CBS) has estimated that the real GDP growth rate at basic prices has decelerated from 5.3%
in FY2008 to 3.8% in FY2009. The slowdown is broad-based, encompassing agriculture,
industry and services. The agriculture sector is estimated to grow by only 2.2% in FY2009,
down from 4.7% in FY2008; industrial sector by 1.8% almost the same as 1.9% in FY2008;
and service sector by 5.8%, significantly down from 7.0% in FY2008.
There was significant acceleration of the consumer price inflation from 7.7% in 2008 to
13.2% in 2009 contributed by food inflation of 14.8 percent and non-food inflation of 9.8
percent. However, the fiscal situation and the balance of payments have surplus on current
accounts and macroeconomic fundamentals are sound. Both the government and the
monetary authority deserve to be complemented for maintaining economic stability in a
difficult socio-economic-political context.
There are now indications that these adverse factors also continued in 2010. As per the
estimates made by the ADB Nepal Resident Office, real GDP growth rate is expected to
“remain subpar at approximately 3.5% in FY2010 (16 July 2009 – 15 July 2010). Services
are expected to expand robustly, but may not sufficiently offset the weak performance of
industry and agriculture. Industrial growth may remain subdued due to continued political
disturbances, frequent power cuts, and fuel shortages. Assuming normal weather conditions
during the winter, agriculture output growth is also expected to decelerate from last year in
view of significantly reduced summer crop output due to poor weather”. There is liquidity
crunch in the banking sector caused by a number of factors such as decelerating remittances,
heavy imports and excessive lending by commercial banks. Fuelled by high import prices and
high CPI inflation in India, domestic inflation is also running at high levels, and challenging
macroeconomic stability during 2010. Consequently, there was upward trend of deposit and
lending rates in contrast to the declining trend in the recent past.
Despite the political turmoil and the labor unrest, both the government and the Nepal Rastra
Bank deserve complements for adopting sound macroeconomic and prudent monetary
policies to tackle the adverse impact of the global financial crisis and economic recession and
spiraling inflation in Nepal.
In the Budget estimate for 2010, the Ministry of Finance projected a rise of the expenditure
outlay by 37% and revenue by 37% over FY2009. Although the targets were ambitious, the
33
mid-term review of the budget carried out by the Ministry of Finance in February 2010
suggested that both expenditure and revenue targets are likely to be met.
Our forecasts of key macro-economic variables for the years 2011-2015 take into account the
developments in the current year 2010. We further assume that the transitional problems of
strikes and labor unrest will be solved by the next year. In addition, our projections are based
on the following presumptions:
(a) Government will continue with the prudent macroeconomic management.

(b) There will be no weather socks;
(c) There will be no other internal and external shocks, except volatile oil prices.
(d) Tourists’ arrivals and travel incomes would return to normal levels;
(e) Remittances would continue to be buoyant;
(f) Donors’ support would continue at normal levels;
(g) There will be no change in the real exchange rate of the Nepalese rupee during the
projection period.
3 Projection Techniques
Components of supply side of the GDP (i.e. sectoral value added) are projected on the basis
of the historical growth rates adjusted for large variations, if any. Other variables in the
model are estimated by elasticity with respect to nominal GDP at current market prices.
However, only individual items in different sub-models are projected by this method, while
the aggregates are estimated on the basis of standard identities and balance equations to
satisfy consistency among various variables and partial equilibrium within the system.
3.1 Historical Growth Rates for the Real Sector
Basic methodology used is the standard time series analysis to estimate historical growth
rates on the basis of three kinds of time trend growth rates viz., least squares time trend
growth rate, exponential growth rate and simple average annual growth rate.
To start with, we estimate the average historical growth rate for each of 9 sub-sectors of GDP
(1 in agriculture, 4 in industry and 4 in services) viz. agriculture (Agr), mining and quarrying
(Min), manufacturing (Manf), public utilities (Utilities), construction (Const), wholesale and
retail trade (Trade), transport and communications (Trans), financial services (Fin), and social
sectors (Social) comprising health, education, public administration and community, religious
and personal services. Three kinds of growth rates, as indicated below, are estimated on the
basis of the past time series data for 1975-20094 and presented in the Appendix-2.
(a) Least-squares time trend growth rate
The IMF uses the Least-squares growth rates to forecast the country growth rates for their
World Economic Outlook (WEO) published twice in a year, wherever there is past data for at
least 9 years to permit a reliable calculation. The least-squares growth rate, r, is estimated by
4
Data are obtained from the official sources such as the Ministry of Finance, Nepal Rastra Bank and Central
Bureau of Statistics. Data on balance of payments for the past are supplanted by data from the International
Monetary Fund (IMF).
34
fitting a linear regression trend line to the logarithmic annual values of the variable in the
relevant period. The regression equation takes the form
Ln Yt = a + bt
which is equivalent to the logarithmic transformation of the compound growth equation,
Yt = Yo (1 + r)t
In this equation, Y is the variable, t is time, r is the trend growth rate, Ln is the natural
logarithm operator, and a = log Yo and b = Ln (1 + r) are the parameters to be estimated.
If b* is the least-squares estimate of b, the average annual growth rate, r, is obtained as
r = [exp(b*) – 1] and is multiplied by 100 to express it as a percentage.
The calculated growth rate is an average rate that is representative of the available
observations over the entire period. It does not necessarily match the actual growth rate
between any two years.
(b) Exponential growth rate
The exponential growth rate between two points in time for a variable is calculated from the
following equation
r = Ln (Yn /Y1)/(n-1)and is multiplied by 100 to express it as a percentage.
where Yn and Y1 are the last and first observations in the period, n is the number of years in
the period, and Ln is the natural logarithm operator. This growth rate is based on a model of
continuous and exponential growth between two points in time. It does not take into account
the intermediate values of the series.
35
(c) Average of Annual Growth rates
Average Annual Growth Rate (µ) = ∑ GRi /n

GRi = 100 * (Yi / Yi-1 -1) for i=1, 2, … n for the years 1975,1976 ...….. 2009.
CV = 100 * SD/ µ
SD² = Σ (GRi - µ ) ² / n
Where Ln stands for natural logarithm, GRi for growth rate for the i-th year, CV for
coefficient of variation and SD for standard deviation.
3.2 Base Line Time Trend Projections
On the supply side, the projections of sectoral value added for the years 2010-2015 are done
on the basis of the minimum of the three types of growth rates as mentioned above. In
general, for most of the variables, the exponential growth rate is lower than the least squares
trend growth rate, which in turn is lower than the average annual growth rates. Thus the
exponential growth rate happens to be lowest growth rate and is taken for projecting the
sectoral GDP at both constant and current prices5. The same methodology is used to project
net indirect taxes (INDT, i.e. indirect taxes less subsidies and transfers). Thus we have,
YCST= YCSTAGR+YCSTIND+YCSTSER-YCSTFISM
YFC=YFCAGR+YFCIND+YFCSER-YFCSISM
YFCIND=YFCMIN+YFCMANF+YFCUTILITY+YFCCONST
YFCSER=YFCTRADE+YFCTRANS+YFCFIN+YFCSOCIAL
YMP=YFC+YINDTAX
YGNI = YMP+BOPINCOME
YGNDI=YGNI+BOPTRANSFER
As mentioned earlier, past data for the years 1975-2009 along with standard descriptive
statistics are presented in Appendix-1 and the projections of sectoral GDP at both current
and constant prices for the years 2010-2015 are presented in the Appendix-2. The latter
Tables also indicate the fitted regression lines log (Yt) = α + β Time and log (Yt) = α + β
log (GDPMPt) and the corresponding R2 for estimation of the trend growth rates of the
variables and the elasticity of the variable with respect to the GDP at current market prices.
5
It may also be possible that annual growth rates are volatile with high standard deviation
(SD) and co-efficient of variation (CV=SD/µ). Then the corresponding average annual
growth rates cannot hold good for the medium and long term. If for any variable, there is high
CV (say exceeding 200%), the projected growth rate can be modified on the basis of the
following formula:
Projected growth rate = Trend growth rate minus 25 percent of SD.
36
3.3 Projections of GDP for the years 2008 to 2012
In general, we use the following equation for forecasting:
Yt = Yo (1 + r)t
Where Yo = GDP in the base year 2007

0 = Base year 2007
t = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 for years 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012
Nominal GDP at current market prices is projected by the following equation:
GDPNt = GDPt (1 + 0.01 * INFGDPt)
Where INFPGDPt is the projected inflation factor (i.e. 1+Inflation rate) in terms of GDP
deflator for the year t.
3.4 Projections of other variables
Projections of other macroeconomic variables for government finance, balance of

payments, and money supply are done on the basis of standard elasticity approach. First
of all, a log linear regression equation is fitted by regressing natural logarithm of a
variable on the natural logarithm of GDP at current market prices.
LnYt = α + β LnGDPt
where Yt is the value of a variable in year t and GDPt is the nominal GDP at current market
prices in year t for the years 1990 to 2007. It is clear that β is the elasticity of the variable
with respect to GDP.
β y,gdp = δLnYt / δLnGDPt
Projected growth rate for the variable for a year is estimated by the following relation:
Projected growth rate for a variable Y = β y,gdp times GRgdp
Where β y,gdp = elasticity of Y with respect to GDP (which is constant) and
GRgdp = Growth rate of GDP in year t (which may change over the years).
Appendix-2 presents the projections of all variables for the years 2010-2015 along with
resultant annual growth rates and the ratio of a variable to the GDP at the current market
prices. The table clearly indicates the projection method and the average growth rate with CV
for a variable for the projection period.
3.5 Test and Calibration Techniques
As mentioned earlier, trend growth rates are estimated by fitting exponential (semi-log)
time trends and elasticity of a variable with respect to GDP at current market prices is
estimated by fitting log-linear (double log) regression equations. The ordinary least
squares (OLS) method is used for fitting these relations. The goodness of fit is judged by
R2 which is observed to be very high for most of the variables (Appendix-2).
4. Summary Results
4.1-A Supply Side of Real Sector
(Annual Growth Rates in percentage)
37
Year/ Overall real Agriculture Industry Services Financial

Items GDP intermediary
2007 2.7 1.0 3.9 4.5 -12.4
2008 5.3 4.7 1.9 7.0 -6.5
2009 3.8 2.2 1.8 5.8 - 5.5
2010 est. 3.5 1.2 1.5 5.8 -3.4
2011 proj. 4.7 2.7 5.9 5.6 -3.4
2012 proj. 4.7 2.7 5.9 5.6 -3.4
2013 proj. 4.7 2.7 5.9 5.6 -3.4
2014 proj. 4.8 2.7 5.9 5.6 -3.4
2015 proj. 4.8 2.7 5.9 5.6 -3.4
2010-2015
AVGR 4.5 2.4 5.2 5.6 -3.4
CV (%) 13.3 28.8 34.8 0.6 0.0
4.1-B Sectoral Composition of Real GDP (in percentage)

Year/ Overall real Agriculture Industry Services Financial
Items GDP intermediary
2007 100 37.4 17.6 49.3 -4.4
2008 100 37.2 17.0 50.1 -4.4
2009 100 36.7 16.7 51.1 -4.5
2010 est. 100 35.8 16.4 52.2 -4.5
2011 proj. 100 35.2 16.6 52.7 -4.4
2012 proj. 100 34.5 16.8 53.1 -4.4
2013 proj. 100 33.8 17.0 53.5 -4.3
2014 proj. 100 33.2 17.2 54.0 -4.3
2015 proj. 100 32.5 17.3 54.4 -4.2
4.2-A Growth rates of demand for Nominal GDP at current prices (in percentage)
Year/ Overall Consump- Private Public Investment GFCF
Items GDP (MP) tion Cons. Cons.
2007 11.3 10.2 9.5 17.7 16.6 9.5
2008 12.4 10.7 9.5 21.9 27.0 16.4
2009 17.3 21.5 20.3 31.3 9.6 18.1
2010 est. 15.0 15.1 15.0 15.7 17.8 16.6
2011 proj. 13.0 13.0 12.9 13.5 15.4 14.3
2012 proj. 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.6 15.5 14.4
2013 proj. 13.1 13.1 13.0 13.6 15.5 14.5
2014 proj. 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.7 15.6 14.5
2015 proj. 13.2 13.2 13.1 13.7 15.7 14.6
38
4.2-B Growth rates of demand for Nominal GDP (in percentage)

Year/ Private Public Stocks Exports Imports GDP at FC
Items GFCF GFCF
2007 19.0 8.1 40.7 8.0 11.3 10.7
2008 22.4 15.4 55.0 4.1 17.3 11.9
2009 56.1 11.5 -7.1 52.5 34.4 16.7
2010 est. 13.3 17.4 21.0 17.3 18.2 15.1
2011 proj. 11.5 15.0 18.0 14.9 15.7 12.9
2012 proj. 11.6 15.0 18.0 15.0 15.8 12.9
2013 proj. 11.6 15.1 18.0 15.0 15.8 13.0
2014 proj. 11.6 15.1 18.0 15.1 15.9 13.0
2015 proj. 11.7 15.2 18.0 15.1 16.0 13.1
4.2-C Composition of demand for Nominal GDP at current prices (in percentage)
Year/ Overall Consump- Private Public Investment GFCF
Items GDP (MP) tion Cons. Cons.
2007 100.0 90.1 80.9 9.2 28.1 20.4
2008 100.0 88.8 78.8 10.0 31.8 21.1
2009 100.0 92.0 80.9 11.1 29.7 21.2
2010 est. 100.0 92.0 80.8 11.2 30.4 21.5
2011 proj. 100.0 92.0 80.8 11.3 31.1 21.8
2012 proj. 100.0 92.0 80.7 11.3 31.8 22.1
2013 proj. 100.0 92.0 80.7 11.4 32.4 22.3
2014 proj. 100.0 92.1 80.6 11.4 33.2 22.6
2015 proj. 100.0 92.1 80.6 11.5 33.9 22.9
4.2-D Composition of demand for Nominal GDP at current prices (in percentage)
Year/ Private Public Stocks Exports Imports GDP at FC
Items GFCF GFCF
2007 2.9 17.5 7.7 13.0 31.3 92.9
2008 3.1 18.0 10.7 12.1 32.7 92.5
2009 4.1 17.1 8.5 15.7 37.4 92.0
2010 est. 4.1 17.4 8.9 16.0 38.5 92.0
2011 proj. 4.0 17.8 9.3 16.3 39.4 92.0
2012 proj. 4.0 18.1 9.7 16.6 40.4 91.9
2013 proj. 3.9 18.4 10.1 16.9 41.4 91.8
2014 proj. 3.9 18.7 10.6 17.2 42.4 91.7
2015 proj. 3.8 19.1 11.0 17.5 43.4 91.7
4.3-A Government Finance as ratio of GDP at current prices (in percentage)

Year/ Total Exp. Current Capital Amorti- Total Revenue
Items Exp. Exp. zation Receipts
2007 18.3 10.6 5.5 2.3 14.2 12.0
2008 19.7 11.2 6.5 2.0 15.6 13.2
2009 22.2 12.7 7.6 1.9 18.4 14.8
2010 est. 22.7 13.1 7.5 2.1 18.6 15.1
2011 proj. 23.1 13.5 7.4 2.2 18.9 15.3
2012 proj. 23.5 13.9 7.3 2.4 19.1 15.5
2013 proj. 24.0 14.3 7.2 2.5 19.3 15.8
2014 proj. 24.5 14.7 7.0 2.7 19.5 16.0
2015 proj. 25.0 15.1 6.9 2.9 19.7 16.3
4.3-B Government Finance as ratio of GDP at current prices (in percentage)

Year/ Tax Nontax Grants Budget Foreign Domestic
Items balance Loan Loan
39
2007 9.8 2.3 2.2 -4.1 1.4 2.5

2008 10.4 2.7 2.5 -4.1 1.1 2.5
2009 12.2 2.6 3.6 -3.8 1.1 2.6
2010 est. 12.4 2.7 3.6 -4.0 1.1 2.6
2011 proj. 12.6 2.7 3.5 -4.2 1.1 2.6
2012 proj. 12.7 2.8 3.5 -4.5 1.1 2.6
2013 proj. 12.9 2.9 3.5 -4.7 1.1 2.7
2014 proj. 13.1 2.9 3.5 -5.0 1.1 2.7
2015 proj. 13.3 3.0 3.4 -5.3 1.1 2.7
4.3-C Government Finance as ratio of GDP at current prices (in percentage)

Year/ Cash Indirect Custom Import Export Duty
Items balance Tax duties Duties duty refund
2007 -0.3 7.2 2.3 1.9 0.1 0.3
2008 -0.5 7.6 2.6 2.1 0.1 0.4
2009 -0.1 8.6 2.8 2.2 0.1 0.4
2010 est. -0.3 8.8 2.8 2.2 0.1 0.4
2011 proj. -0.5 8.9 2.8 2.3 0.1 0.4
2012 proj. -0.8 9.1 2.9 2.3 0.1 0.4
2013 proj. -1.0 9.2 2.9 2.3 0.1 0.4
2014 proj. -1.2 9.4 2.9 2.3 0.1 0.4
2015 proj. -1.5 9.6 2.9 2.3 0.1 0.4
4.3-D Government Finance as ratio of GDP at current prices (in percentage)

Year/ GST Excise VAT Indirect tax Land Tax Property
Items Tax
2007 4.9 1.3 3.6 2.6 0.3 2.3
2008 5.0 1.4 3.6 2.8 0.4 2.5
2009 5.9 1.7 4.2 3.7 0.7 3.1
2010 est. 6.0 1.7 4.3 3.9 0.7 3.2
2011 proj. 6.1 1.7 4.4 4.0 0.7 3.4
2012 proj. 6.2 1.7 4.5 4.2 0.7 3.5
2013 proj. 6.4 1.7 4.6 4.3 0.7 3.6
2014 proj. 6.5 1.7 4.7 4.5 0.7 3.8
2015 proj. 6.6 1.8 4.9 4.6 0.7 4.0
40
4.4-A Balance of Payments as ratio of GDP at current prices (in percentage)

Year/ Exports Imports Goods Services, Services Services
Items Balance net credits debit
2007 8.4 26.2 -17.7 -1.2 4.4 5.6
2008 7.6 26.6 -19.1 -1.4 5.2 6.5
2009 7.3 29.1 -21.8 -1.1 5.5 6.6
2010 est. 7.5 29.9 -22.4 -1.2 5.6 6.8
2011 proj. 7.6 30.6 -23.0 -1.3 5.6 6.9
2012 proj. 7.8 31.4 -23.6 -1.5 5.6 7.1
2013 proj. 8.0 32.2 -24.2 -1.6 5.7 7.3
2014 proj. 8.2 33.0 -24.8 -1.7 5.7 7.5
2015 proj. 8.4 33.8 -25.5 -1.9 5.8 7.6
4.4-B Balance of Payments as ratio of GDP at current prices (in percentage)

Year/ Income, Income Income Transfer, Transfer Remitance
Items net Credit Debit net credit
2007 1.0 2.0 1.0 17.7 18.3 13.8
2008 1.0 1.6 0.7 22.3 22.7 17.4
2009 1.2 1.7 0.5 26.0 26.8 21.8
2010 est. 1.3 1.8 0.5 25.6 26.5 21.5
2011 proj. 1.3 1.8 0.6 25.7 26.6 21.6
2012 proj. 1.3 1.9 0.6 25.7 26.7 21.6
2013 proj. 1.3 2.0 0.6 25.8 26.8 21.7
2014 proj. 1.4 2.0 0.7 25.8 26.9 21.7
2015 proj. 1.4 2.1 0.7 25.9 27.0 21.8
4.4-C Balance of Payments as ratio of GDP at current prices (in percentage)

Year/ Grants Others Transfer Current Capital Govt, Loan
Items Debit A/C balance
Balance
2007 2.5 2.0 0.6 -0.1 1.6 0.3
2008 2.6 2.7 0.3 2.9 1.5 0.4
2009 2.8 2.2 0.8 4.3 2.5 -0.3
2010 est. 2.8 2.2 0.9 3.2 2.5 -0.4
2011 proj. 2.8 2.2 0.9 2.6 2.5 -0.5
2012 proj. 2.8 2.3 1.0 2.0 2.5 -0.6
2013 proj. 2.8 2.3 1.0 1.3 2.4 -0.7
2014 proj. 2.8 2.4 1.1 0.6 2.4 -0.8
2015 proj. 2.9 2.4 1.2 -0.1 2.4 -0.9
41
4.4-D Balance of Payments as ratio of GDP at current prices (in percentage)

Year/ C/A Cap/Ac Loan Disburse Amorti- FDI BOP
Items Balance Balance ment zation balance
2007 -0.1 1.6 0.3 1.3 -1.0 0.0 1.5
2008 2.9 1.5 0.4 1.4 -1.0 0.0 4.4
2009 4.3 2.5 -0.3 0.8 -1.1 0.2 6.8
2010 est. 3.2 2.5 -0.4 0.8 -1.1 0.2 5.7
2011 proj. 2.6 2.5 -0.5 0.8 -1.2 0.1 5.1
2012 proj. 2.0 2.5 -0.6 0.8 -1.3 0.1 4.4
2013 proj. 1.3 2.4 -0.7 0.8 -1.4 0.1 3.8
2014 proj. 0.6 2.4 -0.8 0.8 -1.6 0.1 3.1
2015 proj. -0.1 2.4 -0.9 0.8 -1.7 0.1 2.3
4.5-A Money Supply as ratio of GDP at current prices (in percentage)

Year/ Broad Quasi Money Currency Demand Fixed Deposit
Items Money M2 M1 Deposit
2007 54.3 17.4 11.5 6.0 36.9
2008 60.5 18.9 12.2 6.6 41.7
2009 65.9 20.5 13.1 7.4 45.4
2010 est. 68.8 20.9 13.4 7.5 47.9
2011 proj. 71.4 21.2 13.6 7.6 50.2
2012 proj. 74.2 21.6 13.9 7.7 52.7
2013 proj. 77.1 21.9 14.1 7.8 55.2
2014 proj. 80.2 22.3 14.4 7.9 57.9
2015 proj. 83.4 22.7 14.6 8.1 60.7
4.5-B Money Demand as ratio of GDP at current prices (in percentage)

Year/ NFA NDA Credit Govt, Pub.Ent. Private Other
Items items
2007 18.1 36.2 50.2 11.4 0.9 37.8 -14.0
2008 21.0 39.6 54.0 11.3 0.9 41.9 -14.5
2009 23.0 42.9 58.1 11.4 0.7 46.1 -15.2
2010 est. 23.9 44.9 61.6 11.7 0.7 49.2 -16.7
2011 proj. 24.8 46.7 64.8 12.0 0.6 52.2 -18.2
2012 proj. 25.6 48.6 68.3 12.4 0.6 55.3 -19.7
2013 proj. 26.5 50.6 71.9 12.7 0.6 58.6 -21.3
2014 proj. 27.5 52.7 75.8 13.1 0.6 62.2 -23.1
2015 proj. 28.4 55.0 80.0 13.4 0.6 66.0 -25.0
4.6-A Inflation Rates (in percentage) in Terms of:
Year/ CPI Food Non- GDP Agricul- Industry Services
Items food Deflator ture
2007 6.4 7.2 5.7 7.7 6.1 5.8 8.5
2008 7.7 10.1 5.0 6.3 7.2 7.5 5.2
2009 13.2 14.8 9.8 12.4 14.9 9.1 11.2
2010 est. 10.0 12.0 9.0 11.2 12.6 12.3 9.6
2011 proj. 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.8 6.7 7.7 8.7
2012 proj. 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.8 6.7 7.7 8.7
2013 proj. 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 6.7 7.7 8.8
2014 proj. 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 6.7 7.7 8.8
2015 proj. 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 6.7 7.8 8.8
4.6-B Inflation Rates (in percentage) in Terms of:

Year/ Oil price wpiInd Indian CPI
Items
2007 11.2 7.7 6.5
42
2008 38.3 7.7 8.1

2009 -30.2 7.7 10.8
2010 est. 3.5 6.8 12.0
2011 proj. 3.5 6.8 7.1
2012 proj. 3.5 6.8 7.1
2013 proj. 3.5 6.8 7.1
2014 proj. 3.5 6.8 7.1
2015 proj. 3.5 6.8 7.1
4.6-C Deposit and Lending Rates (in percentage)

Year/ DR DR1yr DR2yr Bank LR Ind LR Agr LR Exp LR Com
Items Saving rate
2007 3.5 3.6 4.0 6.3 10.8 11.3 8.3 8.3
2008 4.3 4.3 4.8 6.5 10.0 10.0 8.3 8.3
2009 4.8 6.0 6.1 6.5 10.8 10.8 8.8 11.0
2010 est. 5.0 6.8 7.9 6.5 10.6 11.3 12.3 11.0
2011 proj. 4.9 6.5 7.6 6.5 10.5 11.1 12.1 10.8
2012 proj. 4.7 6.3 7.3 6.5 10.4 11.0 11.9 10.6
2013 proj. 4.6 6.0 7.0 6.5 10.3 10.9 11.7 10.4
2014 proj. 4.5 5.8 6.8 6.5 10.2 10.8 11.5 10.2
2015 proj. 4.4 5.6 6.5 6.5 10.1 10.7 11.3 10.0
43

TARUN DAS
MACROECONOMIC MODELING SPECIALIST
AND TEAM LEADER
Statistical Appendix Tables
Appendix-1: Description of variables
Appendix-2: Data Base for 1975-2009

and Descriptive Statistics
Appendix-3: Exponential Trends log (Yt) = α + β Time

Log-Linear Functions log (Yt) = α + β log (GDPMPt)
And Projections for 2010-2015
Appendix-4: KPS Unit Root Tests for the Variables
44
Appendix-1
Variables used for the Upgraded Nepal Macroeconomic Model

Serial Description Type
No. Variable
1 Time 1 to 35 with Year 1974-75=1 Exogenous
2 Population Population Endogenous
Real sector and National Accounts Block
3 ycst Overall GDP at constant 2000-01 factor cost Identity
4 ycstagr Agriculture GDP at constant 2000-01 factor cost Endogenous
5 ycstind Industry GDP at constant 2000-01 factor cost Endogenous
6 ycstser Services GDP at constant 2000-01 factor cost Endogenous
7 ycstfism Fin. intermediary Services GDP at 2000-01 factor cost Endogenous
8 ycstnonagr Non-agriculture GDP at 2000-01 factor cost=ycst-ycstagr Identity
9 ycmp Overall GDP at current market prices=yc+yinv+yxgs-ymgs Identity
10 ygni Gross national income = ycmp+bopincome Endogenous
11 ygndi Gross national disposable income = ygni + net transfer Endogenous
12 yc Consumption at current market prices = ypc + ygc Identity
13 ypc Private consumption at current market prices Endogenous
14 ygc Government consumption at current market prices Endogenous
15 yinv Gross domestic investment=ygfcf+ystock Identity
16 ygfcf Gross fixed capital formation= ygfcfpub+ygfcfpvt Identity
17 ygfcfpub Public Gross fixed capital formation Endogenous
18 ygfcfpvt Private Gross fixed capital formation Endogenous
19 ystock Change in stocks and inventories Endogenous
20 yxgs Exports of goods and services Endogenous
21 ymgs Imports of goods and services Endogenous
22 yfc Overall GDP at current factor cost =gfcagr+gfcind+gfcser Identity
23 yfcnonagr Non-agriculture GDP at current factor cost =yfc-yfcagr Identity
24 yfcagr Agriculture GDP at current factor cost Endogenous
25 Industry GDP at current factor cost Identity
yfcind =yfcind+yfcmnf+yfcutility+yfcconst
26 yfcmin Mining and Quarrying GDP at current factor cost Endogenous
27 yfcmnf Manufacturing GDP at current factor cost Endogenous
28 yfacutility Utility (electricity, gas, water) GDP at current factor cost Endogenous
29 yfcconst Construction GDP at current factor cost Endogenous
30 Services GDP at current factor cost Identity
yfcservice =yfctrade+yfctrans+yfcfin+yfcservice
31 yfctrade Retail and wholesale trade GDP at current factor cost Endogenous
32 yfctrans Transport and communications GDP at current factor cost Endogenous
33 yfcfin Financial services and real est. GDP at current factor cost Endogenous
34 yfcsocial Social, community & pub. admn GDP at current factor cost Endogenous
35 yfcfisim Fin. Intermediary services GDP at current factor cost Endogenous
36 yfcindtax Indirect taxes less subsidies Endogenous
37 ymp GDP at current market prices = yfc + yfcindtax Identity
38 ympnonagr Non-agriculture GDP at current market prices = ymp-yfcagr Identity
39 inv Overall investment = invagr+invind+invservice Identity
40 invagr Agriculture investment Endogenous
41 invind Industry investment = invmin+invmnf+invutility+invconst Identity
42 invmin Mining and quarrying investment Endogenous
43 invmnf Manufacturing investment Endogenous
45
44 invutiliy Public utility investment Endogenous

45 invconst Construction investment Endogenous
46 invser Services investment = invtrade+invtrans+invfin+invsocial Identity
47 invtrade Wholesale and retail trade investment Endogenous
48 invtrans Transport and communications investment Endogenous
49 invfin Financial sector investment Endogenous
50 invsocial Social and Other services investment Endogenous
51 agcularea Agricultural cultivated area Endogenous
52 agcroparea Agricultural cropped area Endogenous
53 agirrarea Agriculture irrigated area Endogenous
54 agSeed Agriculture seeds Endogenous
55 agFert Agriculture fertilizers Endogenous
56 emp Overall employment = empagr+empind+empservice Identity
57 Empagr Agriculture employment Endogenous
58 Empind Industry employment=empmin+empmnf+emputility+empconst Identity
59 Empmq Mining and quarrying employment Endogenous
60 Empmanf Manufacturing employment Endogenous
61 Emputility Public utility employment Endogenous
62 EmpConst Construction employment Endogenous
63 empser Services employment =emptrade+emptrans+empfin+empsocial Identity
64 Emptrade Wholesale and retail trade employment Endogenous
65 Emptrans Transport and communications employment Endogenous
66 Empfin Financial sector employment Endogenous
67 Empsocial Social and Other services employment Endogenous
68 emptotal Total employment (data validation) Identity
Government Finance Block
69 GFEXP Government expenditure = gfcrexp+gfcapexp Identity
70 gfcrexp Government current expenditure Endogenous
71 gfcapexp Government capital expenditure Endogenous
72 gfamort Amortization = repayment of principal Endogenous
73 gfreceipt Government receipts including grants = gfrev+gfgrants Identity
74 gfrev Govt revenue = gftax + gfnontax Identity
75 gftax Govt tax revenue = gfdirtax + gfindtax Dentity
76 gfnontax Govt non-tax revenue Endogenous
77 gfgrants Govt grants Endogenous
78 gfbalance Govt budget balance = gfreceipt-gfexp Identity
79 gffloan Govt foreign loan Endogenous
80 gfdloan Govt domestic loan Endogenous
81 gfcashbal Govt cash balance = gfbalance- gffloan-gfdloan Identity
82 gfindtax Govt indirect tax Identity
83 gfcustom Customs revenue =gfImpduty + gfexpduty+gfexrefund+ gfothers Identity
84 gfimpduty Import duty Endogenous
85 gfexpduty Export duty Endogenous
86 gfexrefund Excise refund from India Endogenous
87 gfothers Other customs duty Endogenous
88 gfgoodstax Goods tax = gfexcise+gfvat Identity
89 gfexcise Excise duty Endogenous
90 gfvat Value added tax Endogenous
91 gfgothers Others services tax Endogenous
92 gfgtotal Total goods and services tax Identity
93 gfdirtax Direct tax Identity
46
94 gflandtax Lands tax=gfLandRev+gfHousetax+gftaxprincome Identity

95 gflandrev Land revenue Endogenous
96 gfhousetax Property tax Endogenous
97 gftaxprinc Tax on property profits and income Endogenous
Balance of Payments Block
98 bopexp Goods exports Endogenous
99 bopimp Goods imports Endogenous
100 bopgb Goods balance=bopexp-bopimp Identity
101 bopservice Net service Identity
102 bopsercr Services credit Endogenous
103 bopserdb Services debit Endogenous
104 bopincome Net income Identity
105 bopincr Income credits Endogenous
106 bopindb Income debits Endogenous
107 boptransfer Transfer net Identity
108 boptrcr Transfer credit Identity
109 bopRemit Remittances Endogenous
110 bopgrants Grants Endogenous
111 bopOthers Other transfer Endogenous
112 boptrdr Transfer debit Endogenous
113 Current account balance = Identity
bopcab bopgb+bopservice+bopincome+boptransfer
114 bopcapbal Capital balance=bopgloan+fdi Identity
115 bopgloan Govt loan =bopfloan-bopamort Identity
116 bopfloan Froreign loan Endogenous
117 bopamort Amortization Endogenous
118 bopfdi Foreign direct investment Endogenous
119 bopbal Overall BOP balance = bopcab+bopcapbal Identity
120 bopresch Reserve change Identity
121 exrate$ Exchange rate = Nepalese rupees per US dollar Endogenous
Money and Financial Sector Block
122 Mnfa Net foreign assets Identity
123 Mnda Net domestic assets = mcredit+mothers Identity
124 MCredit Total credits= mcrgov+mcrpub+mcrpvt Endogenous
125 Mcegov Credits to govt Endogenous
126 Mcrpub Credits to the public enterprises Endogenous
127 MCRPVT Credits to the private sector Endogenous
128 Mothers Other items Endogenous
129 M2D Broad money demand = mnfa+mnda Identity
130 M2S Broad money supply= m1+mfd Identity
131 M1 Quasi money supply=Mcurrency+mdd Identity
132 Mcurrency Currency in circulation with the public Endogenous
133 MDD Demand deposits Endogenous
134 MFD Fixed deposits Endogenous
Prices, Interest and Exchange Rate Block
135 dfyfc Deflator for overall GDP at factor cost = yfc/ycst Identity
136 dfyagr Deflator for agriculture GDP at factor cost = yfcagr/ycstagr Identity
137 dfyind Deflator for industry GDP at factor cost= yfcind/ycstind Identity
138 dyser Deflator for services GDP at factor cost= yfcser/ycstser Identity
139 drsav Savings deposit rate Exogenous
140 dr1yr Deposit rate for 1 year fixed deposit Exogenous
141 dr2yr Deposit rate for 2 year fixed deposit Exogenous
142 bankrate Bank rate Exogenous
143 lrind Lending rate for industry Exogenous
47
144 lragr Lending rate for agriculture Exogenous

145 lrexp Lending rate for exports Exogenous
146 lrcom Lending rate for commerce Exogenous
147 cpi Consumer price index Endogenous
148 cpifood CPI for food Endogenous
149 cpinonfood CPI for non-food Endogenous
150 InfCPI CPI inflation = rate of change of CPI Endogenous
151 InfFood CPI Food inflation = rate of change for Food CPI Endogenous
152 infNonFood CPI NonFood inflation = rate of change for NonFood CPI Endogenous
153 infdfyfc Inflation in terms of GDP FC deflator Endogenous
154 infdfagr Inflation in terms of deflator for GDPAGR Endogenous
155 infdfind Inflation in terms of deflator for GDPIND Endogenous
155 infdfser Inflation in terms of deflator for GDPSERVICE Endogenous
157 OilPrice Crude oil price Exogenous
158 wpiWorld World WPI Exogenous
159 cpiIndian Indian CPI Exogenous
160 wpiInd Indian WPI Exogenous
48
Appendix-2:
Data Base for 1975-2009

And Descriptive Statistics
49
Year Populatio ycst ycstagr ycstind ycstser ycstfism Gni

n
1,975 12 139439 78627 12012 41314 7,485 16,571
1,976 13 143101 79069 12556 45642 5,833 17,458
1,977 13 142628 75843 14059 49660 3,067 17,354
1,978 13 146115 75843 15681 52373 2,218 19,819
1,979 14 149453 78150 15340 52903 3,060 22,315
1,980 14 147473 74427 15488 57373 186 23,501
1,981 15 161439 82140 17202 60848 1,249 27,428
1,982 15 169386 85884 18981 62734 1,786 31,150
1,983 15 170244 84944 21148 62695 1,457 33,761
1,984 16 185594 93045 22946 67591 2,012 39,339
1,985 16 196021 95237 24955 76247 (419) 47,431
1,986 16 205239 97811 27706 79915 (193) 55,734
1,987 17 208566 97129 28329 84552 (1,444) 63,844
1,988 17 223116 103497 30942 90213 (1,536) 76,719
1,989 17 234681 109878 32510 94337 (2,045) 89,438
1,990 18 245169 116213 33419 98786 (3,249) 103,924
1,991 18 260926 118715 37607 108435 (3,832) 120,768
1,992 18 272848 117451 43935 115436 (3,975) 150,080
1,993 19 281394 116723 46026 123908 (5,263) 171,847
1,994 19 303114 125598 50181 133415 (6,080) 199,861
1,995 20 311148 125180 52170 141374 (7,576) 219,447
1,996 20 328456 129951 56762 149717 (7,973) 248,769
1,997 21 345193 135621 60443 156884 (7,754) 280,796
1,998 21 356274 136776 61824 167339 (9,665) 301,650
1,999 22 372238 140660 65541 176363 (10,327) 343,734
2,000 22 394585 147543 71274 186378 (10,609) 381,849
2,001 23 413428 155625 73561 196269 (12,026) 443,219
2,002 24 414092 160421 74197 192782 (13,308) 458,838
2,003 24 429699 165761 76492 199874 (12,428) 491,554
2,004 25 448654 173734 77588 213505 (16,173) 535,065
2,005 25 461453 179811 79925 218897 (17,180) 591,050
2,006 26 480435 183015 83499 233026 (19,105) 659,039
2,007 26 493604 184795 86792 243493 (21,476) 735,610
2,008 27 519574 193497 88398 260546 (22,867) 826,348
2,009 28 539318 197695 89968 275780 (24,125) 971,762
Descriptive Statistics
Mean 18.0 19.1 294,117 123,323 46,270 130,589 (6,065)
Median 18.0 18.5 272,848 117,451 43,935 115,436 (3,975)
Skewnes 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.5 (0.6)
Kurtosis (1.2) (1.0) (1.1) (1.0) (1.4) (1.0) (0.5)
Max 35.0 27.6 539318 197695 89968 275780 7485
Min 1.0 12.5 139439 74427 12012 41314 -24125
SD 10.2 4.5 126072 38446 26350 69929 8418
CV (%) 56.9 23.6 43 31 57 54 -139
50
Year gndy ycmp yc ypc Ygc yinv ygfcf

1,975 17,095 16,571 14,909 13,652 1,257 2,402 2,223
1,976 18,047 17,394 15,354 14,060 1,294 2,632 2,443
1,977 17,972 17,280 14,948 13,688 1,260 2,769 2,580
1,978 20,407 19,732 17,192 15,721 1,471 3,507 3,295
1,979 23,184 22,215 19,630 17,741 1,889 3,514 3,263
1,980 24,689 23,351 20,760 19,195 1,565 4,270 3,681
1,981 28,845 27,307 24,333 22,411 1,922 4,808 4,299
1,982 32,781 30,988 27,910 25,272 2,638 5,314 5,465
1,983 35,652 33,761 30,874 27,458 3,416 6,628 6,576
1,984 41,412 39,290 35,504 31,860 3,644 7,251 6,907
1,985 50,157 46,587 40,348 35,977 4,371 10,184 9,386
1,986 57,975 55,734 49,847 44,782 5,065 10,599 9,431
1,987 66,536 63,864 56,543 50,746 5,797 12,898 11,825
1,988 79,650 76,906 69,302 62,407 6,895 15,237 13,414
1,989 92,200 89,270 79,120 70,173 8,947 19,415 16,392
1,990 106,714 103,416 95,273 86,314 8,959 19,076 17,002
1,991 124,429 120,370 108,856 97,771 11,085 25,073 22,780
1,992 154,374 149,487 133,280 121,372 11,908 31,619 29,276
1,993 178,784 171,474 148,302 133,402 14,900 39,653 37,278
1,994 206,670 199,272 170,052 154,065 15,987 44,644 42,032
1,995 230,156 219,175 186,710 166,443 20,267 55,231 48,370
1,996 260,962 248,913 214,487 191,469 23,018 68,017 56,081
1,997 295,926 280,513 241,351 216,364 24,987 71,084 60,794
1,998 318,947 300,845 259,407 231,392 28,015 74,728 65,375
1,999 365,770 342,036 295,473 264,944 30,529 70,061 65,269
2,000 436,903 379,488 321,911 287,947 33,964 92,272 73,324
2,001 508,814 441,518 390,018 354,233 35,785 98,646 84,750
2,002 527,024 459,443 415,842 377,256 38,586 93,021 89,889
2,003 567,087 492,230 450,090 407,438 42,652 105,382 98,073
2,004 619,954 536,749 473,685 427,288 46,397 131,671 109,181
2,005 688,754 589,413 521,302 468,849 52,453 155,907 117,539
2,006 785,184 654,083 595,327 538,533 56,794 175,632 135,532
2,007 864,602 728,178 656,276 589,429 66,847 204,830 148,421
2,008 1,009,164 818,401 726,685 645,203 81,482 260,170 172,746
2,009 1,221,248 960,012 883,252 776,233 107,019 285,186 203,985
Mean 287,945 250,722 222,976 200,031 22,945 63,238 50,825
Median 154,374 149,487 133,280 121,372 11,908 31,619 29,276
Skewnes 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.2
Kurtosis 1.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 2.4 2.0 0.8
Max 1221248 960012 883252 776233 107019 285186 203985
Min 17095 16571 14909 13652 1257 2402 2223
SD 320014 261214 235623 210199 25648 75046 54483
CV (%) 111 104 106 105 112 119 107
51
Year ygfcfpub ygfcfpvt ystock yxgs ymgs yfc yfcagr

1,975 505 1,718 179 1,475 2,215 15,936 11,405
1,976 632 1,811 189 1,874 2,466 16,589 11,495
1,977 689 1,891 189 2,037 2,474 16,255 10,389
1,978 1,114 2,181 212 2,086 3,053 18,426 11,621
1,979 1,138 2,125 251 2,618 3,547 20,779 13,365
1,980 1,466 2,215 589 2,695 4,374 21,886 13,520
1,981 1,823 2,476 509 3,523 5,357 25,466 15,510
1,982 2,487 2,978 (151) 3,592 5,828 29,037 17,715
1,983 2,941 3,635 52 3,455 7,196 31,584 19,002
1,984 3,139 3,768 344 4,196 7,661 37,004 22,570
1,985 3,629 5,757 798 5,372 9,317 44,016 22,762
1,986 3,909 5,522 1,168 6,506 11,218 52,727 27,136
1,987 4,727 7,098 1,073 7,555 13,132 60,372 30,622
1,988 5,483 7,931 1,823 8,717 16,350 72,214 36,754
1,989 7,902 8,490 3,023 9,897 19,162 84,512 42,571
1,990 7,968 9,034 2,074 10,887 21,820 97,748 50,470
1,991 8,683 14,097 2,293 14,226 27,785 113,838 55,368
1,992 10,331 18,945 2,343 23,909 39,321 142,000 65,156
1,993 11,769 25,509 2,375 30,948 47,429 161,772 70,072
1,994 13,380 28,652 2,612 47,548 62,972 187,123 80,589
1,995 15,070 33,300 6,861 53,084 75,850 204,914 85,569
1,996 17,624 38,457 11,936 55,405 88,996 233,456 96,896
1,997 19,392 41,402 10,290 73,853 105,775 262,561 108,785
1,998 22,573 42,802 9,353 68,659 101,949 281,902 112,495
1,999 23,888 41,381 4,792 78,150 101,648 320,580 132,373
2,000 26,436 46,888 18,948 88,360 123,055 355,543 145,131
2,001 18,063 66,687 13,896 99,611 146,757 413,428 155,625
2,002 17,439 72,450 3,132 81,492 130,912 430,397 166,090
2,003 14,719 83,354 7,309 77,280 140,522 460,324 172,802
2,004 14,955 94,226 22,490 89,544 158,151 500,699 186,125
2,005 17,213 100,326 38,368 85,958 173,754 548,485 199,368
2,006 17,509 118,023 40,100 87,952 204,828 611,118 211,704
2,007 20,843 127,578 56,409 94,979 227,907 676,210 226,822
2,008 25,521 147,225 87,424 98,836 267,290 756,756 254,669
2,009 39,829 164,156 81,201 150,764 359,190 882,954 298,876
Mean 11,565 39,260 12,413 42,201 77,693 233,960 90,898
Median 10,331 18,945 2,375 23,909 39,321 142,000 65,156
Skewnes 0.8 1.3 2.4 0.6 1.4 1.1 0.9
Kurtosis 0.5 0.8 5.4 (0.7) 1.8 0.4 (0.2)
Max 39829 164156 87424 150764 359190 882954 298876
Min 505 1718 -151 1475 2215 15936 10389
SD 9544 46318 22147 41774 88734 242012 81533
CV (%) 83 118 178 99 114 103 90
52
Year yfcind yfcmin yfcmanf yfcutility yfcconst yfcser yfctrade

1,975 1,303 22 664 34 583 3,228 540
1,976 1,469 23 690 38 718 3,625 603
1,977 1,821 26 736 39 1,020 4,045 636
1,978 2,194 20 794 42 1,338 4,611 707
1,979 2,217 34 848 48 1,287 5,197 724
1,980 2,608 42 936 60 1,570 5,758 889
1,981 3,148 58 1,049 67 1,974 6,808 953
1,982 3,733 66 1,243 82 2,342 7,589 1,068
1,983 4,069 85 1,480 127 2,377 8,513 1,199
1,984 4,661 111 1,816 158 2,576 9,773 1,520
1,985 6,649 193 2,511 184 3,761 15,030 4,561
1,986 8,358 228 3,253 327 4,550 17,720 5,622
1,987 9,555 257 3,740 396 5,162 20,963 6,821
1,988 11,676 317 4,615 441 6,303 24,740 8,118
1,989 13,975 421 4,857 466 8,231 29,285 9,052
1,990 15,871 449 5,956 523 8,943 33,361 10,507
1,991 20,362 575 7,894 815 11,078 40,397 12,902
1,992 29,627 795 12,822 1,241 14,769 50,150 16,563
1,993 34,400 921 14,618 1,543 17,318 60,878 19,260
1,994 40,635 990 17,861 2,163 19,621 70,372 22,497
1,995 46,627 1,117 19,555 2,862 23,093 77,778 24,326
1,996 53,499 1,342 22,466 3,598 26,093 88,993 28,317
1,997 60,031 1,495 24,816 4,457 29,263 100,754 30,551
1,998 63,406 1,553 26,987 4,383 30,483 113,897 33,687
1,999 69,916 1,685 30,337 4,632 33,262 127,729 39,313
2,000 78,689 1,815 33,550 5,942 37,382 142,431 42,895
2,001 73,561 1,817 38,409 7,750 25,585 196,268 78,387
2,002 77,861 2,149 37,736 9,138 28,838 200,101 71,921
2,003 83,538 2,310 38,826 11,447 30,955 217,205 76,235
2,004 89,408 2,507 41,673 11,974 33,254 242,460 88,161
2,005 97,059 2,748 44,885 12,782 36,644 270,152 88,734
2,006 105,098 3,134 47,840 13,172 40,952 313,528 99,612
2,007 115,529 3,417 52,172 14,841 45,099 355,364 103,726
2,008 126,484 3,857 55,900 15,683 51,044 400,108 120,600
2,009 140,506 4,409 61,820 15,865 58,412 471,140 138,705
Mean 42,844 1,171 19,010 4,209 18,454 106,856 33,997
Median 29,627 795 12,822 1,241 14,769 50,150 16,563
Skewne 0.7 1.0 0.7 1.1 0.6 1.4 1.2
s
Kurtosis (0.7) 0.2 (0.8) (0.2) (0.7) 1.1 0.2
Max 140506 4409 61820 15865 58412 471140 138705
Min 1303 20 664 34 583 3228 540
SD 42181 1239 19271 5369 16725 127760 40336
CV (%) 98 106 101 128 91 120 119
53
Year yfctrans yfcfin yfcsocial yfcfism yfcindtax ymp inv invagr

1,975 690 1,095 903 - 635 16,571 2,223 803
1,976 805 1,171 1,046 - 805 17,394 2443 843
1,977 852 1,412 1,145 - 1,025 17,280 2580 731
1,978 1,093 1,534 1,277 - 1,306 19,732 3295 788
1,979 1,520 1,613 1,340 - 1,436 22,215 3263 812
1,980 1,541 1,833 1,495 - 1,465 23,351 3681 754
1,981 1,889 2,077 1,889 - 1,841 27,307 4299 670
1,982 1,992 2,366 2,163 - 1,951 30,988 5465 853
1,983 2,129 2,594 2,591 - 2,177 33,761 6576 1,168
1,984 2,468 2,937 2,848 - 2,286 39,290 6907 1,196
1,985 2,679 3,987 3,803 425 2,571 46,587 9386 1,836
1,986 3,088 4,728 4,282 487 3,007 55,734 9431 1,981
1,987 3,600 5,669 4,873 768 3,492 63,864 11825 2,205
1,988 4,250 6,681 5,691 956 4,692 76,906 13414 2,233
1,989 4,732 8,032 7,469 1,319 4,758 89,270 16392 3,439
1,990 5,724 9,269 7,861 1,954 5,668 103,416 17002 3,262
1,991 6,560 10,944 9,991 2,289 6,532 120,370 22780 4,673
1,992 8,558 13,241 11,788 2,933 7,487 149,487 29276 5,776
1,993 10,819 15,684 15,115 3,578 9,702 171,474 37278 6,319
1,994 12,625 18,122 17,128 4,473 12,149 199,272 42032 6,997
1,995 13,995 20,533 18,924 5,060 14,261 219,175 48370 8,281
1,996 15,898 23,521 21,257 5,932 15,457 248,913 56081 10,319
1,997 19,315 27,157 23,731 7,009 17,952 280,513 60794 11,644
1,998 22,598 29,778 27,834 7,896 18,943 300,845 65375 12,560
1,999 24,631 33,203 30,582 9,438 21,456 342,036 65269 11,910
2,000 29,336 36,919 33,281 10,708 23,945 379,488 73324 14,759
2,001 31,425 46,722 39,734 12,026 28,090 441,518 84750 15,541
2,002 34,959 48,727 44,494 13,655 29,046 459,443 89889 17,781
2,003 39,362 51,112 50,496 13,221 31,906 492,230 98073 20,901
2,004 46,283 53,719 54,297 17,294 36,050 536,749 109181 23,259
2,005 51,336 66,584 63,498 18,094 40,927 589,412 117539 23,695
2,006 61,250 82,021 70,645 19,212 42,966 654,084 135532 33,924
2,007 69,140 99,258 83,240 21,505 51,968 728,178 153337 30,367
2,008 74,869 106,472 98,167 24,505 61,646 818,402 178446 27,388
2,009 95,218 119,449 117,768 27,568 77,057 960,011 211039 31,091
Mean 20,207 20,207 27,433 25,218 6,637 16,762 250,722 51,330
Median 8,558 8,558 13,241 11,788 2,933 7,487 149,487 29,276
Skewne 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.5 1.1 1.3
s
Kurtosi 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.8 0.3 1.9 0.4 1.0
s
Max 95218 95218 119449 117768 27568 77057 960011 211039
Min 690 690 1095 903 0 635 16571 2223
SD 24716 24716 32796 30411 8067 19330 261214 55712
CV (%) 122 122 120 121 122 115 104 109
54
Year invind invmin invmanf invutiliy invconst invser invtrade

1,975 209 1 44 119 44 1,212 81
1,976 249 1 48 143 57 1,351 94
1,977 265 1 49 138 77 1,583 97
1,978 350 1 60 189 99 2,158 116
1,979 187 1 49 9 127 2,265 105
1,980 154 1 47 11 95 2,773 104
1,981 292 1 61 94 135 3,337 136
1,982 324 1 85 92 146 4,289 126
1,983 557 21 177 163 196 4,852 192
1,984 1,496 49 278 982 187 4,214 219
1,985 2,957 12 314 1,478 1,153 4,592 237
1,986 2,434 18 332 722 1,362 5,016 434
1,987 3,552 21 507 1,412 1,612 6,068 662
1,988 3,986 53 644 1,011 2,278 7,195 661
1,989 4,002 2 586 1,312 2,102 8,951 812
1,990 4,095 14 642 1,216 2,223 9,645 606
1,991 4,711 16 989 1,525 2,181 13,396 1,082
1,992 6,038 18 1,392 1,699 2,929 17,462 1,198
1,993 8,446 22 1,947 2,672 3,804 22,513 2,335
1,994 9,281 24 2,183 2,706 4,368 25,753 2,504
1,995 11,506 31 2,736 3,218 5,521 28,583 3,370
1,996 13,001 35 3,053 3,750 6,163 32,761 4,104
1,997 14,813 40 3,494 4,228 7,050 34,337 4,477
1,998 16,083 51 3,801 4,562 7,669 36,732 4,870
1,999 17,357 58 3,628 4,892 8,779 36,002 4,790
2,000 18,751 61 4,438 5,299 8,953 39,814 5,686
2,001 17,993 56 4,158 5,393 8,386 51,216 5,327
2,002 16,118 47 3,969 6,244 5,858 55,990 9,425
2,003 18,530 87 4,063 5,328 9,052 58,642 4,932
2,004 19,945 54 4,351 5,735 9,805 65,977 6,317
2,005 24,420 98 4,664 8,923 10,735 69,424 5,593
2,006 24,304 102 4,991 5,783 13,428 77,304 8,956
2,007 33,006 67 4,769 7,053 21,116 89,964 7,371
2,008 34,596 83 5,717 7,930 20,865 116,462 9,533
2,009 41,733 99 6,766 8,031 26,837 138,216 11,293
Mean 10,735 36 2,144 2,973 5,583 30,859 3,081
Median 6,038 24 1,392 1,699 2,929 17,462 1,198
Skewne 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.6 1.7 1.5 0.9
s
Kurtosis 0.6 (0.6) (1.1) (0.9) 2.8 1.9 (0.2)
Max 41733 102 6766 8923 26837 138216 11293
Min 154 1 44 9 44 1212 81
SD 11158 32 2065 2738 6621 34782 3331
CV (%) 104 89 96 92 119 113 108
55
Year invtrans invfin invsocial Agcularea agcroparea agirrarea agseed

1,975 69 528 534 2,363 2,142 6,720 1,934
1,976 84 588 584 2,412 2,190 3,621 2,064
1,977 87 678 720 2,420 2,202 20,093 2,275
1,978 92 809 1,141 2,498 2,223 7,840 2,532
1,979 107 881 1,171 2,496 2,222 22,597 2,421
1,980 155 1,028 1,485 2,448 2,202 41,274 2,919
1,981 139 1,210 1,852 2,529 2,274 9,375 1,824
1,982 157 1,384 2,622 2,554 2,321 11,388 2,566
1,983 307 1,603 2,749 2,646 2,413 14,025 5,641
1,984 450 1,389 2,155 2,685 2,459 17,715 3,000
1,985 158 1,708 2,490 2,817 2,952 40,477 2,116
1,986 170 1,851 2,562 2,956 2,950 27,231 2,465
1,987 255 2,042 3,108 2,947 2,946 36,572 2,411
1,988 210 3,079 3,245 3,169 3,005 36,572 2,551
1,989 418 3,666 4,055 3,271 3,038 34,620 2,048
1,990 444 3,988 4,606 3,301 3,028 53,304 2,394
1,991 672 5,787 5,854 3,356 3,030 25,666 2,275
1,992 1,278 8,074 6,912 3,263 2,965 22,288 2,553
1,993 1,906 9,590 8,681 3,251 2,945 33,833 1,862
1,994 1,776 11,869 9,604 3,426 3,115 33,542 3,576
1,995 1,996 12,420 10,797 3,432 3,107 25,372 3,684
1,996 2,501 12,645 13,511 3,595 3,242 48,530 3,343
1,997 2,621 13,251 13,988 3,619 3,262 32,018 3,926
1,998 2,796 12,916 16,150 3,609 3,251 21,447 2,229
1,999 2,815 13,344 15,053 3,631 3,253 49,015 1,794
2,000 3,657 14,093 16,377 3,711 3,321 35,702 2,585
2,001 4,965 19,694 21,230 3,707 3,314 29,661 1,894
2,002 5,252 19,712 21,601 3,693 3,296 17,587 2,654
2,003 3,947 29,708 20,055 3,765 3,337 11,823 2,053
2,004 7,189 29,733 22,737 3,837 3,344 12,753 2,190
2,005 7,148 31,788 24,896 3,911 3,352 11,326 2,749
2,006 8,198 33,824 26,327 3,987 3,360 18,402 3,514
2,007 13,108 32,337 37,148 4,064 3,350 26,968 3,380
2,008 15,287 37,199 54,443 4,137 3,416 16,613 3,799
2,009 16,827 43,518 66,577 4,211 3,450 19,936 4,179
Mean 3,064 11,941 12,772 3,249 2,922 25,026 2,726
Median 1,278 8,074 6,912 3,301 3,030 22,597 2,532
Skewne 2.0 1.0 2.1 (0.1) (0.7) 0.4 1.6
s
Kurtosis 3.4 (0.1) 4.7 (1.3) (1.1) (0.6) 3.1
Max 16827 43518 66577 4211 3450 53304 5641
Min 69 528 534 2363 2142 3621 1794
SD 4385 12668 15162 574 449 12817 828
CV (%) 143 106 119 18 15 51 30
56
Year agfert emp empagr empind empmin empmanf emputility

1,975 12,658 5,899 5,570 92 1 82 3
1,976 12,266 6,094 5,751 89 1 78 4
1,977 14,884 6,298 5,938 87 1 75 6
1,978 17,467 6,510 6,131 86 1 72 8
1,979 18,543 6,731 6,331 87 1 69 12
1,980 20,964 6,963 6,537 89 1 66 18
1,981 22,458 7,207 6,749 95 1 63 27
1,982 23,817 7,226 6,718 107 1 75 24
1,983 31,279 7,253 6,687 123 1 90 22
1,984 37,299 7,290 6,657 143 2 108 20
1,985 42,829 7,338 6,626 169 2 129 18
1,986 43,408 7,399 6,595 202 2 154 17
1,987 45,051 7,478 6,565 246 2 184 15
1,988 54,181 7,578 6,535 302 2 220 14
1,989 56,839 7,705 6,505 377 3 263 13
1,990 67,286 7,867 6,475 476 3 314 11
1,991 72,719 8,076 6,445 611 3 376 10
1,992 84,391 8,347 6,416 793 3 449 10
1,993 83,331 8,519 6,541 813 4 465 11
1,994 73,812 8,697 6,668 834 5 481 13
1,995 90,263 8,880 6,798 857 5 498 16
1,996 70,154 9,068 6,930 880 6 516 19
1,997 64,150 9,262 7,065 905 7 534 22
1,998 47,010 9,462 7,203 931 8 553 26
1,999 45,669 9,662 7,341 957 9 572 30
2,000 37,250 9,868 7,481 985 10 591 35
2,001 23,623 10,081 7,624 1,014 12 611 40
2,002 19,713 10,300 7,770 1,044 13 632 46
2,003 38,950 10,526 7,918 1,077 15 654 53
2,004 11,711 10,760 8,069 1,112 17 676 61
2,005 18,458 11,002 8,224 1,149 19 699 71
2,006 8,136 11,251 8,381 1,188 21 723 82
2,007 12,751 11,510 8,541 1,231 24 748 94
2,008 3,285 11,778 8,704 1,276 27 773 109
2,009 12,750 12,056 8,870 1,325 30 799 126
Mean 38,267 8,627 7,010 621 7 383 32
Median 37,250 8,347 6,687 793 3 449 19
Skewne 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.0 1.4 0.0 1.7
s
Kurtosis (0.9) (1.0) (0.3) (1.7) 1.1 (1.6) 2.3
Max 90263 12056 8870 1325 30 799 126
Min 3285 5899 5570 86 1 63 3
SD 25008 1755 845 446 8 258 31
CV (%) 65 20 12 72 110 67 97
57
Year empconst empser emptrade emptrans empfin empsocia emptotal

l
1,975 6 237 98 9 8 121 5,899
1,976 6 254 104 9 9 133 6,094
1,977 5 273 109 9 10 145 6,298
1,978 5 293 115 9 10 159 6,510
1,979 5 314 121 8 11 174 6,731
1,980 4 338 127 8 12 190 6,963
1,981 4 363 134 8 13 208 7,207
1,982 6 401 147 10 14 230 7,226
1,983 9 443 161 13 16 254 7,253
1,984 13 491 177 16 17 281 7,290
1,985 20 543 194 20 18 310 7,338
1,986 29 602 213 26 20 343 7,399
1,987 44 667 234 33 22 379 7,478
1,988 66 741 257 41 23 419 7,578
1,989 99 823 282 53 25 463 7,705
1,990 148 916 309 67 28 512 7,867
1,991 221 1,020 339 85 30 566 8,076
1,992 331 1,138 373 108 32 626 8,347
1,993 333 1,165 394 112 35 625 8,519
1,994 335 1,194 417 116 38 623 8,697
1,995 337 1,225 441 121 41 622 8,880
1,996 340 1,257 466 126 44 621 9,068
1,997 342 1,292 493 131 47 620 9,262
1,998 344 1,328 522 136 51 619 9,462
1,999 346 1,364 551 141 55 618 9,662
2,000 348 1,403 581 147 59 617 9,868
2,001 351 1,443 612 152 63 616 10,081
2,002 353 1,486 646 158 68 615 10,300
2,003 355 1,531 681 164 72 613 10,526
2,004 358 1,579 718 170 78 612 10,760
2,005 360 1,629 758 177 83 611 11,002
2,006 362 1,683 799 184 89 610 11,251
2,007 365 1,739 843 191 96 609 11,510
2,008 367 1,798 889 198 103 608 11,778
2,009 369 1,861 938 206 111 607 12,056
Mean 200 995 407 90 41 457 8,627
Median 331 1,138 373 108 32 607 8,347
Skewnes (0.2) (0.0) 0.5 0.1 0.8 (0.6) 0.4
Kurtosis (2.0) (1.4) (0.9) (1.6) (0.4) (1.4) (1.0)
Max 369 1861 938 206 111 626 12056
Min 4 237 98 8 8 121 5899
SD 163 529 258 70 30 192 1755
CV (%) 81 53 63 77 73 42 20
58
Year gfexp gfcrexp gfcapexp gfamort gfreceipt gfrev gftax

1,975 1,514 530 969 15 1,291 1,008 842
1,976 1,913 654 1,243 16 1,476 1,116 911
1,977 2,331 784 1,507 39 1,715 1,323 1,100
1,978 2,675 815 1,816 44 2,049 1,582 1,244
1,979 3,021 982 1,982 57 2,411 1,812 1,477
1,980 3,471 1,056 2,320 95 2,686 1,880 1,529
1,981 4,092 1,264 2,742 86 3,288 2,419 2,036
1,982 5,361 1,523 3,735 104 3,673 2,680 2,211
1,983 6,979 1,900 4,985 94 3,932 2,842 2,421
1,984 7,437 2,107 5,164 167 4,286 3,409 2,737
1,985 8,395 2,720 5,500 175 4,840 3,917 3,151
1,986 9,797 3,232 6,222 343 5,817 4,645 3,659
1,987 11,513 3,776 7,387 351 7,260 5,975 4,372
1,988 14,105 4,277 9,431 397 9,427 7,350 5,753
1,989 18,005 5,133 12,338 534 9,461 7,781 6,287
1,990 19,669 5,863 13,004 802 11,288 9,313 7,284
1,991 23,550 6,821 15,990 739 12,894 10,730 8,176
1,992 26,418 8,695 16,516 1,207 15,157 13,513 9,876
1,993 30,898 9,862 19,438 1,598 18,942 15,148 11,663
1,994 33,597 10,495 21,204 1,898 21,975 19,581 15,372
1,995 39,060 16,607 19,800 2,653 28,542 24,605 19,660
1,996 46,542 18,697 24,998 2,848 32,718 27,893 21,668
1,997 50,724 20,696 26,574 3,453 36,362 30,374 24,424
1,998 56,118 23,218 28,969 3,931 38,341 32,938 25,940
1,999 59,579 26,390 28,546 4,643 41,588 37,251 28,753
2,000 66,273 29,271 31,788 5,213 48,605 42,894 33,152
2,001 79,835 37,069 37,076 5,691 55,647 48,894 38,865
2,002 80,072 48,864 24,773 6,435 57,132 50,446 39,331
2,003 84,006 52,091 22,356 9,560 67,569 56,230 42,587
2,004 89,443 55,552 23,096 10,795 73,614 62,331 48,173
2,005 102,560 61,686 27,341 13,533 84,514 70,123 54,105
2,006 110,889 67,018 29,607 14,265 86,110 72,282 57,430
2,007 133,605 77,122 39,730 16,752 103,513 87,712 71,127
2,008 161,313 91,410 53,516 16,387 127,943 107,623 85,156
2,009 213,578 122,080 73,310 18,189 176,782 142,211 116,997
Mean 45,953 23,436 18,428 4,089 34,367 28,909 22,842
Median 26,418 8,695 16,516 1,207 15,157 13,513 9,876
Skewne 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.7
s
Kurtosis 2.4 2.3 2.7 0.8 3.2 2.5 3.0
Max 213578 122080 73310 18189 176782 142211 116997
Min 1514 530 969 15 1291 1008 842
SD 50969 30411 16220 5594 41446 34395 27622
CV (%) 111 130 88 137 121 119 121
59
Year gfnontax gfgrants gfbalance gffloan gfdloan gfcashbal gfindtax

1,975 167 283 (223) 104 100 (18) 668
1,976 205 360 (437) 146 200 (91) 683
1,977 223 393 (615) 164 300 (151) 827
1,978 338 467 (626) 382 240 (4) 964
1,979 335 600 (609) 390 200 (19) 1,259
1,980 351 806 (785) 535 180 (70) 1,297
1,981 384 869 (804) 693 250 139 1,705
1,982 468 993 (1,688) 730 500 (459) 1,849
1,983 421 1,090 (3,048) 986 1,000 (1,062) 2,007
1,984 672 877 (3,151) 1,671 1,577 96 2,234
1,985 766 923 (3,555) 1,755 1,800 0 2,631
1,986 985 1,173 (3,980) 2,501 1,403 (75) 3,051
1,987 1,603 1,285 (4,253) 2,706 1,645 97 3,651
1,988 1,598 2,077 (4,678) 3,816 1,137 275 4,812
1,989 1,494 1,681 (8,544) 5,666 1,330 (1,547) 5,025
1,990 2,029 1,975 (8,381) 5,960 2,150 (272) 5,914
1,991 2,553 2,165 (10,656) 6,257 4,553 154 5,892
1,992 3,637 1,644 (11,262) 6,817 2,079 (2,366) 8,389
1,993 3,486 3,793 (11,956) 6,921 1,620 (3,415) 9,783
1,994 4,209 2,394 (11,623) 9,164 1,820 (639) 12,714
1,995 4,945 3,937 (10,518) 7,312 1,900 (1,306) 15,863
1,996 6,225 4,825 (13,824) 9,464 2,200 (2,160) 17,083
1,997 5,949 5,988 (14,362) 9,044 3,000 (2,318) 19,191
1,998 6,998 5,403 (17,778) 11,055 3,400 (3,323) 19,911
1,999 8,498 4,337 (17,991) 11,852 4,710 (1,429) 21,456
2,000 9,742 5,712 (17,667) 11,812 5,500 (355) 24,597
2,001 10,029 6,753 (24,188) 12,044 7,000 (5,144) 28,666
2,002 11,115 6,686 (22,941) 7,699 8,000 (7,242) 28,733
2,003 13,643 11,339 (16,437) 4,546 8,880 (3,011) 32,481
2,004 14,158 11,283 (15,828) 7,629 5,608 (2,591) 36,274
2,005 16,018 14,391 (18,046) 9,266 8,938 158 41,044
2,006 14,852 13,828 (24,780) 8,214 11,834 (4,731) 43,466
2,007 16,586 15,801 30,092) 10,054 17,892 (2,146) 52,189
2,008 22,467 20,321 (33,370) 8,980 20,496 (3,893) 62,076
2,009 25,215 34,570 (36,797) 10,405 25,000 (1,391) 82,820
Mean 6,067 5,458 (11,585) 5,621 4,527 (1,437) 17,177
Median 3,486 2,165 (10,656) 6,257 1,900 (639) 8,389
Skewne 1.3 2.4 (0.8) (0.0) 2.1 (1.4) 1.6
s
Kurtosis 0.8 7.2 (0.0) (1.5) 4.3 1.8 2.4
Max 25215 34570 -223 12044 25000 275 82820
Min 167 283 -36797 104 100 -7242 668
SD 6847 7200 10090 4092 5998 1824 19979
CV (%) 113 132 -87 73 133 -127 116
60
Year gfcustom gfimpduty gfexpduty gfexrefund gfcusother gfgoodstax gfexcise

1,975 329 182 31 108 8 339 120
1,976 359 205 38 112 4 324 131
1,977 386 216 48 117 6 440 168
1,978 459 334 39 85 1 506 167
1,979 627 536 54 36 1 632 193
1,980 608 505 63 40 1 689 215
1,981 816 685 70 58 3 890 242
1,982 825 740 42 40 3 1,024 304
1,983 761 715 25 20 1 1,246 364
1,984 826 746 30 49 0 1,408 432
1,985 1,065 908 56 100 1 1,566 483
1,986 1,231 1,081 73 76 1 1,820 559
1,987 1,505 1,285 79 138 2 2,146 679
1,988 2,215 1,984 108 121 1 2,597 825
1,989 2,290 2,134 63 92 2 2,735 873
1,990 2,685 2,646 33 - 6 3,229 1,072
1,991 3,044 2,753 79 212 2 2,847 1,200
1,992 3,359 2,795 115 447 2 5,030 1,419
1,993 3,945 3,178 141 624 3 5,838 1,453
1,994 5,255 4,356 427 460 12 7,459 1,592
1,995 7,018 5,840 333 838 8 8,845 1,658
1,996 7,327 6,247 150 900 31 9,755 1,946
1,997 8,309 7,093 168 1,009 39 10,881 2,302
1,998 8,502 7,019 217 1,102 164 11,409 2,887
1,999 9,518 7,698 378 1,206 235 11,939 2,953
2,000 10,813 8,960 433 1,332 89 13,784 3,133
2,001 12,552 10,392 493 1,456 211 16,114 3,805
2,002 12,659 9,678 917 1,701 362 16,074 3,973
2,003 14,236 10,568 856 2,371 443 18,245 4,778
2,004 15,555 10,667 527 3,883 478 20,719 6,221
2,005 15,702 12,299 698 2,188 516 25,342 6,446
2,006 15,344 11,745 626 2,314 659 28,122 6,506
2,007 16,708 13,626 709 1,897 476 35,481 9,244
2,008 21,062 17,128 446 2,997 492 41,014 11,229
2,009 26,641 21,403 775 3,812 651 56,179 16,293
Mean 6,701 5,381 267 913 140 10,476 2,739
Median 3,359 2,795 115 447 6 5,030 1,419
Skewne 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.9 2.2
s
Kurtosis 0.5 0.8 (0.3) 1.1 0.2 3.6 5.4
Max 26641 21403 917 3883 659 56179 16293
Min 329 182 25 0 0 324 120
SD 6960 5474 276 1108 217 13160 3602
CV (%) 104 102 104 121 154 126 132
61
Year gfvat gfgtaxother gfdirtax gflandtax gflandrev gfhousetax gftaxprinc

1,975 191 29 185 127 91 36 58
1,976 162 32 236 134 95 40 102
1,977 221 52 296 141 98 43 155
1,978 273 65 306 141 87 54 165
1,979 357 83 253 110 55 56 143
1,980 400 74 254 121 56 65 133
1,981 538 110 353 179 101 78 175
1,982 599 121 380 170 82 88 210
1,983 711 171 450 172 67 105 279
1,984 771 205 542 212 77 135 329
1,985 845 238 560 219 77 142 341
1,986 986 275 662 244 74 170 418
1,987 1,143 323 769 284 72 212 485
1,988 1,300 471 1,010 367 81 286 643
1,989 1,385 477 1,331 401 80 321 930
1,990 1,595 563 1,435 452 75 377 983
1,991 1,960 (313) 1,368 539 82 457 830
1,992 2,836 774 1,595 636 65 571 959
1,993 3,438 947 2,036 755 69 686 1,281
1,994 4,693 1,174 2,855 833 61 772 2,022
1,995 6,038 1,150 3,849 938 35 903 2,912
1,996 6,432 1,378 4,656 1,067 18 1,048 3,589
1,997 7,127 1,453 5,340 1,015 6 1,010 4,325
1,998 7,109 1,414 6,188 1,004 4 1,001 5,184
1,999 7,883 1,104 7,516 1,003 1 1,002 6,513
2,000 9,850 801 8,952 1,016 5 1,011 7,936
2,001 12,382 (73) 10,159 613 5 608 9,547
2,002 12,267 (166) 10,598 1,132 1 1,131 9,466
2,003 13,467 - 10,106 1,414 - 1,414 8,692
2,004 14,498 (1) 11,913 1,698 - 1,698 10,215
2,005 18,896 (0) 13,072 1,799 - 1,799 11,273
2,006 21,615 (0) 13,968 2,181 - 2,181 11,787
2,007 26,145 92 18,980 2,254 - 2,254 16,727
2,008 29,765 20 23,088 2,941 - 2,941 20,147
2,009 39,886 1 35,787 6,263 - 6,263 29,524
Mean 7,365 373 5,744 931 46 884 4,814
Median 2,836 121 1,595 613 61 571 983
Skewne 1.8 1.0 2.1 3.1 (0.2) 3.0 2.0
s
Kurtosis 3.1 (0.3) 5.5 12.6 (1.8) 11.9 4.5
Max 39886 1453 35787 6263 101 6263 29524
Min 162 -313 185 110 0 36 58
SD 9667 499 7875 1165 38 1190 6765
CV (%) 131 134 137 125 82 135 141
62
Year bopexp bopimp bopgb bopservice bopsercr bopserdb bopincome

1,975 890 1,815 (925) 281 585 304 -
1,976 1,209 2,022 (813) 220 665 444 64
1,977 1,189 2,045 (856) 420 848 429 74
1,978 1,065 2,516 (1,451) 484 1,021 537 87
1,979 1,304 2,912 (1,609) 679 1,314 635 100
1,980 1,166 3,569 (2,403) 723 1,529 806 150
1,981 1,613 4,443 (2,830) 996 1,910 914 121
1,982 1,496 4,948 (3,452) 1,216 2,096 879 162
1,983 1,136 6,333 (5,197) 1,635 2,319 684 -
1,984 1,710 6,534 (4,824) 1,358 2,486 1,128 49
1,985 2,746 7,769 (5,022) 1,077 2,626 1,548 844
1,986 3,086 9,372 (6,286) 1,575 3,420 1,845 (0)
1,987 3,003 10,927 (7,924) 2,348 4,552 2,204 (20)
1,988 4,127 13,893 (9,766) 2,398 4,589 2,191 (187)
1,989 4,211 16,297 (12,086) 2,821 5,686 2,865 168
1,990 5,170 18,357 (13,187) 2,245 5,681 3,436 508
1,991 7,403 23,256 (15,852) 2,294 6,823 4,529 398
1,992 13,726 31,987 (18,261) 3,300 10,633 7,333 593
1,993 17,286 39,260 (21,974) 4,692 13,424 8,732 373
1,994 19,316 51,629 (32,313) 16,888 28,232 11,344 589
1,995 17,680 63,740 (46,060) 23,293 35,403 12,110 272
1,996 19,913 74,571 (54,658) 21,067 35,493 14,426 (144)
1,997 22,663 93,662 (70,999) 39,078 51,190 12,113 283
1,998 27,540 89,154 (61,614) 28,323 41,119 12,796 805
1,999 35,693 87,695 (52,002) 28,504 42,457 13,953 1,698
2,000 58,495 110,750 (52,256) 11,925 30,820 18,895 2,361
2,001 69,789 126,238 (56,450) 9,302 29,822 20,519 1,701
2,002 57,984 111,342 (53,359) 3,938 23,508 19,570 (605)
2,003 50,761 121,053 (70,292) 7,050 26,519 19,469 (676)
2,004 55,228 132,910 (77,682) 9,075 34,316 25,241 (1,684)
2,005 59,956 145,718 (85,762) (2,034) 26,002 28,036 1,637
2,006 61,482 171,541 (110,058) (6,818) 26,470 33,288 4,956
2,007 61,488 190,437 (128,949) (8,377) 32,079 40,456 7,432
2,008 61,971 217,963 (155,992) (11,092) 42,236 53,328 7,947
2,009 69,907 279,228 (209,321) (10,478) 52,830 63,308 11,750
Mean 23,526 65,025 (41,499) 5,440 18,020 12,580 1,194
Median 13,726 31,987 (18,261) 2,245 10,633 7,333 168
Skewne 0.7 1.2 (1.7) 1.3 0.5 1.8 2.7
s
Kurtosis (1.2) 0.9 3.1 1.9 (1.2) 3.1 7.2
Max 69907 279228 -813 39078 52830 63308 11750
Min 890 1815 -209321 -11092 585 304 -1684
SD 25476 72430 49436 11091 16980 15531 2721
CV (%) 108 111 -119 204 94 123 228
63
Year bopincr bopindb boptransfer boptrcr bopremit bopgrants bopothers

1,975 109 109 524 558 204 242 112
1,976 83 19 589 607 231 259 116
1,977 84 10 618 641 268 251 121
1,978 101 13 588 604 219 287 97
1,979 125 25 870 882 303 511 68
1,980 190 40 1,188 1,201 357 762 82
1,981 160 39 1,417 1,436 484 861 91
1,982 197 35 1,632 1,655 427 1,157 71
1,983 203 203 1,891 1,924 550 1,315 59
1,984 95 46 2,073 2,111 614 1,381 116
1,985 935 91 2,726 3,060 691 1,333 1,036
1,986 64 64 2,241 2,340 809 1,355 176
1,987 101 121 2,692 2,762 1,293 1,303 166
1,988 196 383 2,931 3,043 1,608 1,279 156
1,989 504 335 2,761 3,020 1,629 1,273 119
1,990 655 147 2,790 3,006 1,748 1,086 172
1,991 857 459 3,661 4,041 2,128 1,694 218
1,992 1,123 530 4,294 4,490 2,317 1,690 484
1,993 1,519 1,146 6,937 7,076 2,994 3,499 583
1,994 1,769 1,180 6,809 7,004 3,469 3,040 495
1,995 2,075 1,803 10,709 11,227 5,064 5,339 825
1,996 1,686 1,830 12,193 12,766 4,284 7,583 900
1,997 1,990 1,707 15,130 16,347 5,595 9,743 1,009
1,998 2,377 1,573 17,298 19,065 6,988 10,920 1,158
1,999 3,510 1,813 22,036 23,168 10,315 11,648 1,205
2,000 4,569 2,208 55,054 56,953 36,818 12,875 7,260
2,001 5,471 3,770 65,595 67,028 47,216 12,046 7,765
2,002 4,297 4,902 68,186 70,157 47,536 12,651 9,971
2,003 4,487 5,163 75,533 77,765 54,203 13,842 9,720
2,004 3,842 5,525 84,889 89,162 58,588 19,558 11,016
2,005 7,752 6,115 97,704 101,310 65,541 21,072 14,697
2,006 11,432 6,477 126,146 130,862 97,689 18,851 14,322
2,007 14,501 7,069 128,992 133,197 100,145 18,218 14,834
2,008 13,448 5,501 182,817 185,463 142,683 20,993 21,787
2,009 16,507 4,757 249,487 257,461 209,699 26,796 20,967
Mean 3,057 1,863 36,029 37,240 26,134 7,049 4,056
Median 1,123 530 4,294 4,490 2,317 1,694 495
Skewne 1.9 1.1 2.1 2.1 2.4 1.0 1.6
s
Kurtosis 2.9 (0.4) 4.6 4.6 6.3 (0.3) 1.3
Max 16507 7069 249487 257461 209699 26796 21787
Min 64 10 524 558 204 242 59
SD 4438 2300 59083 60777 47522 7813 6452
CV (%) 145 123 164 163 182 111 159
64
Year boptrdb bopcab bopcapbal bopgloan bopfloan bopamort Bopfdi

1,975 34 (120) 562 87 104 (17) -
1,976 18 60 444 146 164 (18) -
1,977 23 255 588 215 233 (19) -
1,978 16 (292) 594 292 311 (19) -
1,979 13 39 973 429 448 (19) -
1,980 13 (342) 1,364 577 598 (21) -
1,981 18 (296) 1,411 634 665 (31) -
1,982 24 (442) 1,668 774 807 (32) -
1,983 33 (1,671) 1,927 928 964 (36) -
1,984 38 (1,343) 2,421 1,204 1,274 (71) -
1,985 334 (375) 1,997 440 1,363 (923) -
1,986 100 (2,471) 4,843 1,812 2,005 (194) -
1,987 69 (2,904) 5,421 1,888 2,098 (210) -
1,988 112 (4,623) 11,264 4,368 4,675 (307) -
1,989 259 (6,335) 12,456 6,045 6,425 (380) -
1,990 215 (7,644) 16,182 5,889 6,618 (729) -
1,991 379 (9,500) 19,932 6,300 7,154 (854) -
1,992 196 (10,074) 20,794 7,326 8,710 (1,384) -
1,993 138 (9,972) 23,186 5,474 6,960 (1,486) -
1,994 195 (8,027) 25,034 10,723 12,975 (2,251) -
1,995 518 (11,786) 20,277 8,805 11,396 (2,591) -
1,996 573 (21,542) 27,863 7,401 10,285 (2,884) 388
1,997 1,217 (16,508) 28,100 8,390 11,233 (2,843) 1,621
1,998 1,767 (15,188) 36,524 10,370 14,236 (3,867) 685
1,999 1,131 235 18,705 9,101 13,264 (4,164) 578
2,000 1,899 17,084 (478) 8,485 12,548 (4,063) 233
2,001 1,433 20,149 (10,600) 6,977 11,715 (4,739) (33)
2,002 1,971 18,161 (21,039) 2,964 8,040 (5,077) (282)
2,003 2,232 11,615 (7,629) (433) 5,236 (5,669) 961
2,004 4,273 14,598 5,499 3,479 9,245 (5,766) -
2,005 3,606 11,545 (5,868) 1,300 7,254 (5,953) 136
2,006 4,716 14,225 14,768 704 7,691 (6,987) (470)
2,007 4,205 (902) 11,589 2,151 9,690 (7,539) 362
2,008 2,646 23,680 12,255 3,456 11,326 (7,870) 294
2,009 7,975 41,437 24,281 (2,832) 7,288 (10,120) 1,829
Mean 1,211 1,164 8,780 3,596 6,143 (2,547) 180
Median 259 (375) 5,421 2,151 6,960 (1,384) -
Skewne 2.1 1.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 (1.0) 2.4
s
Kurtosis 4.7 1.7 (0.2) (1.0) (1.4) (0.0) 6.2
Max 7975 41437 36524 10723 14236 -17 1829
Min 13 -21542 -21039 -2832 104 -10120 -470
SD 1815 12770 12539 3632 4679 2847 464
CV (%) 150 1097 143 101 76 -112 257
65
Year bopbal bopresch exrate$ mnfa mnda mcredit mcrgov

1,9 442 422 11 1,029 1,035 1,638 286
75
1,9 504 358 12 1,575 949 1,763 480
76
1,9 843 311 13 1,875 1,348 2,125 750
77
1,9 303 11 12 1,783 1,989 2,905 966
78
1,9 1,012 583 12 2,288 2,223 3,541 1,129
79
1,9 1,022 26 12 2,232 3,053 4,306 1,258
80
1,9 1,115 194 12 2,415 3,893 5,161 1,263
81
1,9 1,226 502 13 3,097 4,361 6,043 2,062
82
1,9 256 675 14 2,611 6,611 8,491 4,090
83
1,9 1,078 126 16 2,540 7,915 9,825 5,029
84
1,9 1,622 866 18 1,898 10,399 12,551 6,492
85
1,9 2,372 561 20 2,600 12,559 15,323 7,496
86
1,9 2,517 629 22 3,060 14,438 17,803 8,712
87
1,9 6,641 2,273 22 5,574 15,849 20,469 9,259
88
1,9 6,121 76 26 6,204 20,402 26,584 12,345
89
1,9 8,538 2,650 29 9,339 22,214 29,662 13,940
90
1,9 10,432 4,132 32 16,152 21,561 34,491 16,821
91
1,9 10,720 3,394 43 20,792 24,878 41,609 19,002
92
1,9 13,214 7,740 46 29,125 29,198 49,405 23,446
93
1,9 17,007 6,283 49 36,218 33,559 57,828 23,482
94
1,9 8,491 (314) 50 37,086 43,899 72,185 25,191
95
1,9 6,320 (1,081) 55 37,704 54,949 89,266 27,532
96
1,9 11,592 3,202 57 40,191 63,530 100,917 29,229
97
1,9 21,336 10,966 62 55,573 70,890 115,812 31,753
98
1,9 18,940 9,840 68 65,028 87,773 134,833 34,918
99
2,0 16,607 14,449 69 80,468 105,653 158,001 38,243
00
2,0 9,549 5,221 74 87,798 126,656 187,855 49,191
01
2,0 (2,878) (3,343) 77 88,419 135,569 207,323 59,577
02
2,0 3,986 4,364 78 91,407 154,504 228,444 62,825
03
2,0 20,097 16,001 74 108,805 168,505 251,090 62,314
04
2,0 5,677 (5,742) 71 107,742 192,698 285,158 68,812
05
2,0 28,992 (25,598) 72 139,439 207,983 307,021 75,519
06
2,0 10,687 (5,904) 70 131,910 263,609 365,225 83,011
66
07
2,0 35,934 (29,675) 65 171,455 323,922 442,282 92,092
08
2,0 65,718 (41,280) 77 221,084 411,662 557,779 109,015
09
Mean 9,944 (488) 41 46,186 75,721 110,135 28,786
Median 6,320 561 43 20,792 24,878 41,609 19,002
Skewne 2.6 (2.2) 0.1 1.4 1.8 1.6 1.1
s
Kurtosis 9.0 6.1 (1.7) 1.5 3.0 2.2 0.3
Max 65718 16001 78 221084 411662 557779 109015
Min -2878 -41280 11 1029 949 1638 286
SD 13124 11106 26 56639 101171 141035 30113
CV (%) 132 -2276 62 123 134 128 105
67
Year mcrpub mcrpvt mothers m2d m2s m1 mcurrency

1,9 569 783 (603) 2,064 2,064 1,338 917
75
1,9 567 716 (814) 2,524 2,524 1,453 964
76
1,9 511 864 (777) 3,223 3,223 1,853 1,193
77
1,9 869 1,071 (917) 3,772 3,772 2,061 1,352
78
1,9 1,080 1,332 (1,317) 4,511 4,511 2,505 1,615
79
1,9 1,131 1,917 (1,252) 5,285 5,285 2,830 1,799
80
1,9 1,401 2,498 (1,268) 6,308 6,308 3,208 2,066
81
1,9 1,343 2,638 (1,683) 7,458 7,458 3,612 2,437
82
1,9 1,702 2,699 (1,880) 9,222 9,222 4,349 2,752
83
1,9 1,622 3,174 (1,909) 10,455 10,455 4,932 3,273
84
1,9 2,022 4,037 (2,152) 12,297 12,297 5,480 3,737
85
1,9 2,659 5,168 (2,764) 15,159 15,159 7,029 4,843
86
1,9 2,958 6,133 (3,365) 17,498 17,498 8,120 5,746
87
1,9 3,263 7,947 (4,620) 21,423 21,423 9,597 6,375
88
1,9 3,882 10,357 (6,183) 26,605 26,605 11,775 7,947
89
1,9 4,034 11,688 (7,448) 31,552 31,552 14,223 9,718
90
1,9 3,561 14,109 (12,931) 37,713 37,713 16,284 11,655
91
1,9 4,827 17,780 (16,731) 45,671 45,671 19,458 13,640
92
1,9 4,750 21,209 (20,207) 58,323 58,323 23,833 16,313
93
1,9 4,739 29,607 (24,269) 69,777 69,777 28,510 19,660
94
1,9 5,050 41,943 (28,286) 80,985 80,985 32,985 22,494
95
1,9 6,209 55,525 (34,317) 92,652 92,652 36,498 25,046
96
1,9 7,029 64,659 (37,387) 103,721 103,721 38,460 27,334
97
1,9 7,229 76,830 (44,922) 126,463 126,463 45,164 30,893
98
1,9 9,114 90,801 (47,060) 152,800 152,800 51,062 34,984
99
2,0 10,311 109,448 (52,348) 186,121 186,121 60,980 42,143
00
2,0 11,906 126,758 (61,199) 214,454 214,454 70,577 48,295
01
2,0 14,431 133,315 (71,754) 223,988 223,988 77,156 55,658
02
2,0 14,662 150,957 (73,940) 245,911 245,911 83,754 56,885
03
2,0 16,259 172,517 (82,585) 277,310 277,306 93,970 63,219
04
2,0 19,329 197,017 (92,460) 300,440 300,440 100,206 68,784
05
2,0 17,181 214,321 (99,038) 347,422 347,422 114,389 77,926
06
2,0 6,828 275,387 (101,616) 395,518 395,518 126,888 83,553
68
07
2,0 7,317 342,873 (118,361) 495,377 495,377 154,344 100,175
08
2,0 6,468 442,296 (146,118) 632,745 632,745 196,461 125,760
09
Mean 5,909 75,439 (34,414) 121,907 121,907 41,581 28,033
Median 4,739 17,780 (16,731) 45,671 45,671 19,458 13,640
Skewne 1.1 1.9 (1.2) 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.4
s
Kurtosis 0.4 3.4 0.4 2.5 2.5 1.9 1.3
Max 19329 442296 -603 632745 632745 196461 125760
Min 511 716 -146118 2064 2064 1338 917
SD 5229 108248 40483 157315 157315 49370 32499
CV (%) 88 143 -118 129 129 119 116
69
Year mdd mfd dfyfc dfyagr dfyind dfyser drsav

1,9 421 727 11 15 11 8 8.0
75
1,9 489 1,072 12 15 12 8 8.0
76
1,9 660 1,370 11 14 13 8 8.0
77
1,9 709 1,712 13 15 14 9 8.0
78
1,9 890 2,007 14 17 14 10 8.0
79
1,9 1,031 2,455 15 18 17 10 8.0
80
1,9 1,142 3,100 16 19 18 11 8.0
81
1,9 1,175 3,847 17 21 20 12 8.5
82
1,9 1,597 4,874 19 22 19 14 8.5
83
1,9 1,658 5,524 20 24 20 14 9.3
84
1,9 1,743 6,817 22 24 27 20 9.3
85
1,9 2,186 8,130 26 28 30 22 8.5
86
1,9 2,374 9,378 29 32 34 25 8.5
87
1,9 3,222 11,826 32 36 38 27 9.0
88
1,9 3,829 14,830 36 39 43 31 9.0
89
1,9 4,505 17,329 40 43 47 34 9.0
90
1,9 4,629 21,429 44 47 54 37 8.8
91
1,9 5,818 26,213 52 55 67 43 9.5
92
1,9 7,520 34,490 57 60 75 49 9.5
93
1,9 8,851 41,267 62 64 81 53 7.4
94
1,9 10,492 47,999 66 68 89 55 7.5
95
1,9 11,452 56,154 71 75 94 59 7.8
96
1,9 11,127 65,260 76 80 99 64 7.5
97
1,9 14,271 81,299 79 82 103 68 7.5
98
1,9 16,078 101,738 86 94 107 72 6.9
99
2,0 18,837 125,141 90 98 110 76 5.3
00
2,0 22,282 143,877 100 100 100 100 4.8
01
2,0 21,498 146,832 104 104 105 104 4.4
02
2,0 26,869 162,157 107 104 109 109 4.3
03
2,0 30,751 183,336 112 107 115 114 3.5
04
2,0 31,422 200,234 119 111 121 123 3.4
05
2,0 36,462 233,033 127 116 126 135 3.5
06
2,0 43,334 268,630 137 123 133 146 3.5
70
07
2,0 54,169 341,033 146 132 143 154 4.3
08
2,0 70,701 436,284 164 151 156 171 4.8
09
Mean 13,548 80,326 61 61 68 57 7.1
Median 5,818 26,213 52 55 67 43 8.0
Skewne 1.8 1.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.9 (0.8)
s
Kurtosis 3.1 2.7 (0.7) (1.1) (1.4) (0.4) (0.9)
Max 70701 436284 164 151 156 171 9.5
Min 421 727 11 14 11 8 3.4
SD 16953 108041 45 41 46 48 2.0
CV (%) 125 135 74 67 68 85 28.5
71
Year dr1yr dr2yr bankrate lrind lragr lrexp lrcom

1,9 15.0 16.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 18
75
1,9 15.0 16.0 15.0 13.0 11.0 12.0 18
76
1,9 12.0 13.0 15.0 13.0 11.0 12.0 16
77
1,9 12.0 13.0 15.0 13.0 11.0 12.0 16
78
1,9 12.0 13.0 15.0 13.0 11.0 12.0 16.0
79
1,9 12.0 13.0 15.0 13.0 11.0 12.0 16.0
80
1,9 12.0 13.0 15.0 13.0 10.0 12.0 16.0
81
1,9 12.5 13.5 15.0 13.5 12.5 12.0 19.0
82
1,9 12.5 13.5 15.0 14.0 12.5 12.0 19.0
83
1,9 13.0 14.0 15.0 14.0 12.5 11.0 19.0
84
1,9 13.0 14.0 15.0 14.0 12.5 11.0 19.0
85
1,9 12.5 14.0 15.0 14.0 12.5 15.0 19.0
86
1,9 12.5 14.0 15.0 16.5 17.5 15.0 19.0
87
1,9 12.5 13.8 15.0 18.0 17.5 15.0 19.0
88
1,9 12.5 13.8 11.0 18.0 15.5 15.0 19.0
89
1,9 11.5 12.8 11.0 18.0 15.5 15.5 19.5
90
1,9 11.8 12.7 13.0 17.0 15.5 15.5 19.5
91
1,9 12.0 13.0 13.0 18.5 18.0 18.0 19.0
92
1,9 12.0 13.0 13.0 17.0 18.0 18.0 19.0
93
1,9 8.8 12.0 11.0 15.0 14.0 13.0 15.8
94
1,9 8.8 12.0 11.0 15.8 14.3 14.0 15.0
95
1,9 10.3 11.0 11.0 16.5 15.3 14.5 16.8
96
1,9 10.3 11.0 11.0 16.8 15.4 15.5 16.3
97
1,9 9.8 10.0 9.0 15.3 15.0 14.3 15.8
98
1,9 8.4 8.8 9.0 14.0 14.8 11.3 14.0
99
2,0 6.9 7.1 7.5 13.0 13.3 11.3 12.8
00
2,0 6.1 6.4 7.5 11.0 13.5 9.8 11.5
01
2,0 5.3 5.6 6.5 10.8 13.0 9.5 11.3
02
2,0 5.0 5.4 5.5 11.3 12.5 8.3 11.8
03
2,0 4.3 4.5 5.5 11.0 11.8 7.8 11.8
04
2,0 3.6 4.3 5.5 10.9 11.5 8.0 11.0
05
2,0 3.6 4.5 6.3 10.8 11.3 8.3 11.0
06
2,0 3.6 4.0 6.3 10.8 11.3 8.3 8.3
72
07
2,0 4.3 4.8 6.5 10.0 10.0 8.3 8.3
08
2,0 6.0 6.1 6.5 10.8 10.8 8.8 11.0
09
Mean 9.8 10.8 11.3 14.0 13.4 12.3 15.6
Median 11.8 12.8 11.0 14.0 12.5 12.0 16.0
Skewne (0.6) (0.7) (0.4) 0.2 0.5 0.1 (0.7)
s
Kurtosis (1.0) (1.1) (1.5) (1.0) (0.7) (0.8) (0.8)
Max 15.0 16.0 15.0 18.5 18.0 18.0 19.5
Min 3.6 4.0 5.5 10.0 10.0 7.8 8.3
SD 3.5 3.8 3.7 2.5 2.3 2.9 3.5
CV (%) 35.9 35.4 32.5 17.9 17.4 23.4 22.2
73
Year cpi cpifood cpinonfood infcpi inffood infnonfood infdfy

1,9 15.5 15.4 15.3 (0.6) (0.6) (0.6) 1.4
75
1,9 15.4 14.8 16.4 (0.6) (3.9) 7.2 1.4
76
1,9 15.8 14.8 17.6 2.6 - 7.3 (1.7)
77
1,9 17.6 17.1 18.3 11.4 15.5 4.0 10.7
78
1,9 18.2 17.3 19.7 3.4 1.2 7.7 10.3
79
1,9 19.9 19.2 21.2 9.3 11.0 7.6 6.7
80
1,9 22.6 21.8 24.1 13.6 13.5 13.7 6.3
81
1,9 25.0 24.2 26.3 10.6 11.0 9.1 8.7
82
1,9 28.5 28.1 29.1 14.0 16.1 10.6 8.2
83
1,9 30.3 29.6 31.6 6.3 5.3 8.6 7.5
84
1,9 31.5 29.9 34.7 4.0 1.0 9.8 12.6
85
1,9 36.5 35.5 38.4 15.9 18.7 10.7 14.4
86
1,9 41.4 40.9 42.1 13.4 15.2 9.6 12.7
87
1,9 45.9 45.8 45.9 10.9 12.0 9.0 11.8
88
1,9 49.7 48.5 51.8 8.3 5.9 12.9 11.3
89
1,9 54.5 53.8 55.9 9.7 10.9 7.9 10.7
90
1,9 59.8 59.2 61.1 9.7 10.0 9.3 9.4
91
1,9 72.4 73.7 70.2 21.1 24.5 14.9 19.3
92
1,9 78.8 78.4 79.7 8.8 6.4 13.5 10.5
93
1,9 85.9 85.5 86.8 9.0 9.1 8.9 7.4
94
1,9 92.5 91.8 93.7 7.7 7.4 7.9 6.7
95
1,9 100.0 100.0 100.0 8.1 8.9 6.7 7.9
96
1,9 108.1 108.2 108.0 8.1 8.2 8.0 7.0
97
1,9 117.1 116.6 117.8 8.3 7.8 9.1 4.0
98
1,9 130.4 135.5 124.6 11.4 16.2 5.8 8.8
99
2,0 134.8 136.1 133.4 3.4 0.4 7.1 4.6
00
2,0 149.3 137.3 144.2 10.8 0.9 8.1 11.0
01
2,0 142.1 137.9 147.2 (4.8) 0.4 2.1 3.9
02
2,0 148.9 144.0 154.4 4.8 4.4 4.9 3.1
03
2,0 145.8 148.8 161.8 (2.1) 3.3 4.8 4.2
04
2,0 161.8 154.7 170.3 11.0 4.0 5.3 6.5
05
2,0 174.7 166.8 183.9 8.0 7.8 8.0 7.0
06
2,0 185.9 178.8 194.3 6.4 7.2 5.7 7.7
74
07
2,0 200.2 196.9 204.0 7.7 10.1 5.0 6.3
08
2,0 226.7 226.0 224.0 13.2 14.8 9.8 12.4
09
Mean 85.2 83.8 87.1 8.1 8.1 8.0 8.0
Median 72.4 73.7 70.2 8.3 7.8 8.0 7.7
Skewne 0.6 0.6 0.6 (0.3) 0.3 (0.2) 0.1
s
Kurtosis (0.9) (0.8) (0.9) 0.8 (0.1) 1.1 0.9
Max 226.7 226.0 224.0 21.1 24.5 14.9 19.3
Min 15.4 14.8 15.3 (4.8) (3.9) (0.6) (1.7)
SD 62.3 61.1 63.5 5.3 6.3 3.2 4.1
CV (%) 73.1 73.0 72.9 65.1 77.9 39.6 51.1
75
Year infdfagr infdfind infdfser oilprice wpiworld cpiIndian wpiInd

1,9 0.2 7.9 1.7 9.4 5.0 14.1 17.3
75
1,9 0.2 7.9 1.7 12.2 5.5 13.0 17.1
76
1,9 (5.8) 10.7 2.6 13.1 6.0 14.1 17.4
77
1,9 11.9 8.0 8.1 14.4 6.7 14.5 18.3
78
1,9 11.6 3.3 11.6 15.0 7.3 15.4 18.3
79
1,9 6.2 16.5 2.2 25.1 8.3 17.1 21.5
80
1,9 3.9 8.7 11.5 37.4 9.8 19.4 25.4
81
1,9 9.2 7.5 8.1 35.8 11.2 20.9 27.8
82
1,9 8.5 (2.2) 12.2 31.8 12.5 23.4 29.1
83
1,9 8.4 5.6 6.5 29.1 14.2 25.3 31.3
84
1,9 (1.5) 31.2 36.3 28.8 8.8 26.7 33.4
85
1,9 16.1 13.2 12.5 26.9 18.0 29.0 34.8
86
1,9 13.6 11.8 11.8 14.4 19.1 31.6 36.9
87
1,9 12.6 11.9 10.6 17.8 21.3 34.0 39.9
88
1,9 9.1 13.9 13.2 14.9 25.2 37.3 42.8
89
1,9 12.1 10.5 8.8 18.3 30.7 40.6 46.0
90
1,9 7.4 14.0 10.3 23.2 38.9 46.3 50.7
91
1,9 18.9 24.5 16.6 20.2 44.2 51.8 57.7
92
1,9 8.2 10.8 13.1 19.3 50.4 55.0 63.5
93
1,9 6.9 8.3 7.4 16.8 58.6 60.7 68.8
94
1,9 6.5 10.4 4.3 15.7 72.8 66.8 77.5
95
1,9 9.1 5.5 8.0 16.8 82.5 72.9 83.7
96
1,9 7.6 5.4 8.0 20.5 87.9 78.2 87.5
97
1,9 2.5 3.3 6.0 18.6 92.0 88.4 91.4
98
1,9 14.4 4.0 6.4 17.8 96.0 92.6 96.8
99
2,0 4.5 3.5 5.5 28.5 100.0 96.3 100.0
00
2,0 1.7 (9.4) 30.9 24.5 110.0 100.0 107.2
01
2,0 3.5 4.9 3.8 25.0 120.0 104.2 111.0
02
2,0 0.7 4.1 4.7 28.9 132.0 108.3 114.8
03
2,0 2.8 5.5 4.5 38.2 145.0 112.2 121.1
04
2,0 3.5 5.4 8.7 54.4 160.0 117.0 128.9
05
2,0 4.3 3.6 9.0 65.1 175.0 123.0 138.8
06
2,0 6.1 5.8 8.5 72.5 190.0 131.0 149.4
76
07
2,0 7.2 7.5 5.2 100.2 205.0 141.7 160.9
08
2,0 14.9 9.1 11.2 70.0 220.0 157.0 173.2
09
Mean 7.1 8.4 9.5 29.2 68.3 62.3 69.7
Median 7.2 7.9 8.1 23.2 44.2 51.8 57.7
Skewne (0.0) 0.9 2.4 2.0 0.9 0.6 0.6
s
Kurtosis (0.0) 4.0 7.2 4.0 (0.3) (1.0) (0.7)
Max 18.9 31.2 36.3 100.2 220.0 157.0 173.2
Min (5.8) (9.4) 1.7 9.4 5.0 13.0 17.1
SD 5.4 6.9 7.1 20.2 65.3 43.1 46.4
CV (%) 76.4 82.2 74.7 69.2 95.7 69.3 66.5
77
Appendix-3:
Exponential Trends log (Yt) = α + β Time

Log-Linear Functions log (Yt) = α + β log (GDPMPt)
And Projections for 2010-2015
78
Year Population ycst ycstagr ycstind ycstser ycstfism gni

log (Yt) = α + β Time
α 2.51 11.72 11.13 9.40 10.62 6.78 9.44
(Intcpt)
β (Slope) 0.02 0.04 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.09 0.13
R-SQ 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.99 0.53 0.99
log (Yt) = α + β log (GDPMPt)
α 0.84 8.55 8.93 4.69 6.52 0.01 0.00
(Intcpt)
β (λwrtY) 0.18 0.34 0.23 0.50 0.43 0.71 1.00
R-SQ 0.98 1.00 0.98 0.99 1.00 0.56 1.00
ExpGR 2.3 4.0 2.7 5.9 5.6 3.4 12.0
TRGR 2.33 4.40 3.06 6.58 5.74 9.41 13.65
AVGR 2.4 4.1 2.8 6.2 5.8 37.5 12.8
CV (%) 20.3 59.1 120.6 70.4 48.7 400.8 40.3
PGR 2.3 Identity 2.7 5.9 5.6 3.4 Identity
2009 28 539,318 197,695 89,968 275,780 (24,125) 971,762
P2010 28.3 558205 200067 91318 291775 -24955 1,118,217
P2011 28.9 584470 205493 96726 308067 -25814 1,263,544
P2012 29.6 612084 211065 102454 325267 -26703 1,428,399
P2013 30.3 641117 216789 108521 343429 -27622 1,615,478
P2014 31.0 671647 222668 114948 362604 -28573 1,827,860
P2015 31.7 703755 228706 121756 382850 -29556 2,069,056
AVGR 2.3 4.5 2.5 5.2 5.6 3.4 13.4
CV (%) 0.0 11.2 25.1 34.8 1.6 0.0 6.0
Annual Growth Rates (%)
2007 2.2 2.7 1.0 3.9 4.5 12.4 11.6
2008 2.2 5.3 4.7 1.9 7.0 6.5 12.3
2009 2.3 3.8 2.2 1.8 5.8 5.5 17.6
2010 2.3 3.5 1.2 1.5 5.8 3.4 15.1
2011 2.3 4.7 2.7 5.9 5.6 3.4 13.0
2012 2.3 4.7 2.7 5.9 5.6 3.4 13.0
2013 2.3 4.7 2.7 5.9 5.6 3.4 13.1
2014 2.3 4.8 2.7 5.9 5.6 3.4 13.1
2015 2.3 4.8 2.7 5.9 5.6 3.4 13.2
As % of GDP at current market prices
2007 67.8 25.4 11.9 33.4 -2.9 101.0
2008 63.5 23.6 10.8 31.8 -2.8 101.0
2009 56.2 20.6 9.4 28.7 -2.5 101.2
2010 50.5 18.1 8.3 26.4 -2.3 101.3
2011 46.8 16.5 7.8 24.7 -2.1 101.3
2012 43.4 15.0 7.3 23.1 -1.9 101.3
2013 40.2 13.6 6.8 21.5 -1.7 101.3
2014 37.2 12.3 6.4 20.1 -1.6 101.4
2015 34.5 11.2 6.0 18.8 -1.4 101.4
79
Year gndy ycmp yc ypc ygc yinv ygfcf

α 9.44 9.44 9.32 9.22 6.89 7.59 7.57
(Intcpt)
β (Slope) 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.14
R-SQ 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
α -0.32 0.00 -0.12 -0.17 -2.94 -3.08 -2.65
(Intcpt)
β (λwrtY) 1.03 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.04 1.13 1.08
R-SQ 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
ExpGR 12.6 11.9 12.0 11.9 13.1 14.0 13.3
TRGR 14.17 13.64 13.65 13.59 14.27 15.58 14.84
AVGR 13.5 12.8 12.9 12.8 14.5 15.6 14.6
CV (%) 38.9 40.4 45.5 49.0 76.7 72.9 65.4
PGR Identity Identity Identity Elasticity Elasticity Identity Identity
2009 1,221,248 960,012 883,252 776,233 107,019 285,186 203,985
P2010 1,415,619 1104379 1016208 892420 123788 336029 237791
P2011 1,618,495 1247593 1148123 1007609 140514 387745 271818
P2012 1,852,182 1410013 1297748 1138175 159574 447710 310911
P2013 2,121,614 1594285 1467531 1286228 181303 517278 355849
P2014 2,432,548 1803434 1660262 1454177 206085 598034 407534
P2015 2,791,715 2040907 1879129 1644769 234360 691831 467011
AVGR 14.8 13.4 13.4 13.3 14.0 15.9 14.8
CV (%) 3.9 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.9
2007 10.1 11.3 10.2 9.5 17.7 16.6 9.5
2008 16.7 12.4 10.7 9.5 21.9 27.0 16.4
2009 21.0 17.3 21.5 20.3 31.3 9.6 18.1
2010 15.9 15.0 15.1 15.0 15.7 17.8 16.6
2011 14.3 13.0 13.0 12.9 13.5 15.4 14.3
2012 14.4 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.6 15.5 14.4
2013 14.5 13.1 13.1 13.0 13.6 15.5 14.5
2014 14.7 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.7 15.6 14.5
2015 14.8 13.2 13.2 13.1 13.7 15.7 14.6
2007 118.7 100.0 90.1 80.9 9.2 28.1 20.4
2008 123.3 100.0 88.8 78.8 10.0 31.8 21.1
2009 127.2 100.0 92.0 80.9 11.1 29.7 21.2
2010 128.2 100.0 92.0 80.8 11.2 30.4 21.5
2011 129.7 100.0 92.0 80.8 11.3 31.1 21.8
2012 131.4 100.0 92.0 80.7 11.3 31.8 22.1
2013 133.1 100.0 92.0 80.7 11.4 32.4 22.3
2014 134.9 100.0 92.1 80.6 11.4 33.2 22.6
2015 136.8 100.0 92.1 80.6 11.5 33.9 22.9
80
Year ygfcfpub ygfcfpvt ystock yxgs ymgs yfc yfcagr

α 6.81 7.01 4.62 7.19 7.55 9.38 9.03
(Intcpt)
β (Slope) 0.11 0.15 0.18 0.15 0.15 0.13 0.11
R-SQ 0.88 0.99 0.89 0.95 0.98 0.99 0.99
α -1.59 -3.88 -8.74 -3.70 -3.91 -0.02 1.26
(Intcpt)
β (λwrtY) 0.89 1.15 1.42 1.15 1.21 1.00 0.82
R-SQ 0.91 0.99 0.89 0.97 0.99 1.00 1.00
ExpGR 12.8 13.4 18.0 13.6 15.0 11.8 9.6
TRGR 11.88 15.91 19.91 15.67 16.73 13.59 11.10
AVGR 15.0 15.2 47.5 15.9 16.6 12.7 10.3
CV (%) 117.0 95.2 264.8 114.6 64.0 42.3 64.6
PGR Elasticity Elasticity Identity Elasticity Elasticity Identity 9.6
2009 39,829 164,156 81,200 150,764 359,190 882,954 298,876
P2010 45144 192647 98,238 176838 424696 1016446 340719
P2011 50338 221480 115,927 203212 491486 1147250 373447
P2012 56153 254759 136,799 233637 569082 1295507 409320
P2013 62664 293185 161,429 268752 659276 1463619 448639
P2014 69958 337575 190,501 309300 764162 1654325 491734
P2015 78132 388878 224,820 356139 886192 1870754 538969
AVGR 11.9 15.5 18.5 15.4 16.2 13.3 10.3
CV (%) 6.0 6.0 6.6 6.0 6.0 6.6 17.4
2007 19.0 8.1 40.7 8.0 11.3 10.7 7.1
2008 22.4 15.4 55.0 4.1 17.3 11.9 12.3
2009 56.1 11.5 -7.1 52.5 34.4 16.7 17.4
2010 13.3 17.4 21.0 17.3 18.2 15.1 14.0
2011 11.5 15.0 18.0 14.9 15.7 12.9 9.6
2012 11.6 15.0 18.0 15.0 15.8 12.9 9.6
2013 11.6 15.1 18.0 15.0 15.8 13.0 9.6
2014 11.6 15.1 18.0 15.1 15.9 13.0 9.6
2015 11.7 15.2 18.0 15.1 16.0 13.1 9.6
2007 2.9 17.5 7.7 13.0 31.3 92.9 31.1
2008 3.1 18.0 10.7 12.1 32.7 92.5 31.1
2009 4.1 17.1 8.5 15.7 37.4 92.0 31.1
2010 4.1 17.4 8.9 16.0 38.5 92.0 30.9
2011 4.0 17.8 9.3 16.3 39.4 92.0 29.9
2012 4.0 18.1 9.7 16.6 40.4 91.9 29.0
2013 3.9 18.4 10.1 16.9 41.4 91.8 28.1
2014 3.9 18.7 10.6 17.2 42.4 91.7 27.3
2015 3.8 19.1 11.0 17.5 43.4 91.7 26.4
81
Year yfcind yfcmin yfcmanf yfcutility yfcconst yfcser yfctrade

α 7.21 3.10 6.22 3.11 6.74 7.88 6.06
(Intcpt)
β (Slope) 0.15 0.17 0.15 0.21 0.13 0.15 0.18
R-SQ 0.97 0.95 0.97 0.98 0.94 0.99 0.97
α -3.71 -9.26 -5.17 -12.31 -3.19 -3.40 -7.25
(Intcpt)
β (λwrtY) 1.16 1.31 1.20 1.63 1.05 1.20 1.41
R-SQ 0.99 0.97 0.99 0.99 0.97 1.00 0.98
ExpGR 13.8 15.6 13.3 18.1 13.6 14.7 16.3
TRGR 15.80 18.09 16.50 23.17 14.26 16.55 19.64
AVGR 15.2 18.1 14.8 21.0 15.4 16.1 20.6
CV (%) 67.1 99.4 81.9 85.8 88.5 54.8 168.7
PGR Identity 15.6 13.3 18.1 13.6 Identity 16.3
2009 140,506 4,409 61,820 15,865 58,412 471,140 138,705
P2010 160219 5096 70063 18733 66327 546522 160898
P2011 182730 5891 79406 22119 75314 627479 187155
P2012 208440 6809 89994 26116 85520 720482 217697
P2013 237810 7871 101994 30837 97108 827334 253224
P2014 271369 9098 115595 36411 110266 950107 294548
P2015 309724 10516 131009 42992 125208 1091183 342616
AVGR 14.1 15.6 13.3 18.1 13.6 15.0 16.3
CV (%) 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 0.8
2007 9.9 9.0 9.1 12.7 10.1 13.3 4.1
2008 9.5 12.9 7.1 5.7 13.2 12.6 16.3
2009 11.1 14.3 10.6 1.2 14.4 17.8 15.0
2010 14.0 15.6 13.3 18.1 13.6 16.0 16.0
2011 14.0 15.6 13.3 18.1 13.6 14.8 16.3
2012 14.1 15.6 13.3 18.1 13.6 14.8 16.3
2013 14.1 15.6 13.3 18.1 13.6 14.8 16.3
2014 14.1 15.6 13.3 18.1 13.6 14.8 16.3
2015 14.1 15.6 13.3 18.1 13.6 14.8 16.3
2007 15.9 0.5 7.2 2.0 6.2 48.8 14.2
2008 15.5 0.5 6.8 1.9 6.2 48.9 14.7
2009 14.6 0.5 6.4 1.7 6.1 49.1 14.4
2010 14.5 0.5 6.3 1.7 6.0 49.5 14.6
2011 14.6 0.5 6.4 1.8 6.0 50.3 15.0
2012 14.8 0.5 6.4 1.9 6.1 51.1 15.4
2013 14.9 0.5 6.4 1.9 6.1 51.9 15.9
2014 15.0 0.5 6.4 2.0 6.1 52.7 16.3
2015 15.2 0.5 6.4 2.1 6.1 53.5 16.8
82
Year yfctrans yfcfin yfcsocial yfcfism yfcindtax ymp inv

α 6.41 6.75 6.61 4.74 6.50 9.44 7.56
(Intcpt)
β (Slope) 0.15 0.14 0.15 0.17 0.14 0.13 0.14
R-SQ 1.00 0.99 1.00 0.95 0.99 0.99 0.99
α -4.21 -3.87 -4.18 -8.75 -3.47 0.00 -2.69
(Intcpt)
β (λwrtY) 1.13 1.13 1.14 1.40 1.06 1.00 1.09
R-SQ 0.99 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.00
ExpGR 14.5 13.8 14.3 17.4 14.1 11.9 13.4
TRGR 15.61 15.53 15.80 18.16 14.55 13.64 14.89
AVGR 15.9 15.0 15.6 19.7 15.5 12.8 14.7
CV (%) 50.7 46.3 44.9 68.6 55.4 40.4 64.7
PGR 14.5 13.8 14.3 17.4 14.1 Identity Identity
2009 95,218 119,449 117,768 27,568 77,057 960,011 211,039
P2010 110453 138561 136611 31014 87933 1104379 246966
P2011 126460 157683 156181 36406 100343 1247593 283336
P2012 144786 179444 178556 42735 114505 1410013 325343
P2013 165768 204208 204135 50164 130666 1594285 373901
P2014 189791 232389 233379 58885 149108 1803434 430081
P2015 217295 264460 266812 69122 170153 2040907 495134
AVGR 14.7 14.2 14.6 16.6 14.1 13.4 15.3
CV (%) 4.2 6.3 4.7 12.0 0.0 6.0 5.7
2007 12.9 21.0 17.8 11.9 21.0 11.3 13.1
2008 8.3 7.3 17.9 14.0 18.6 12.4 16.4
2009 27.2 12.2 20.0 12.5 25.0 17.3 18.3
2010 16.0 16.0 16.0 12.5 14.1 15.0 17.0
2011 14.5 13.8 14.3 17.4 14.1 13.0 14.7
2012 14.5 13.8 14.3 17.4 14.1 13.0 14.8
2013 14.5 13.8 14.3 17.4 14.1 13.1 14.9
2014 14.5 13.8 14.3 17.4 14.1 13.1 15.0
2015 14.5 13.8 14.3 17.4 14.1 13.2 15.1
2007 9.5 13.6 11.4 3.0 7.1 100.0 21.1
2008 9.1 13.0 12.0 3.0 7.5 100.0 21.8
2009 9.9 12.4 12.3 2.9 8.0 100.0 22.0
2010 10.0 12.5 12.4 2.8 8.0 100.0 22.4
2011 10.1 12.6 12.5 2.9 8.0 100.0 22.7
2012 10.3 12.7 12.7 3.0 8.1 100.0 23.1
2013 10.4 12.8 12.8 3.1 8.2 100.0 23.5
2014 10.5 12.9 12.9 3.3 8.3 100.0 23.8
2015 10.6 13.0 13.1 3.4 8.3 100.0 24.3
83
Year invagr invind invmin invmanf invutiliy invconst invser

α 6.10 5.28 0.18 3.69 4.19 4.16 7.09
(Intcpt)
β (Slope) 0.13 0.17 0.14 0.17 0.16 0.18 0.14
R-SQ 0.97 0.91 0.75 0.92 0.77 0.92 0.99
α -3.57 -7.27 -10.32 -8.84 -7.91 -9.57 -2.98
(Intcpt)
β (λwrtY) 1.02 1.33 1.11 1.32 1.28 1.45 1.07
R-SQ 0.99 0.94 0.75 0.96 0.81 0.94 0.99
ExpGR 10.8 15.6 13.5 14.8 12.4 18.9 13.9
TRGR 13.95 18.29 15.34 18.18 17.44 20.25 14.66
AVGR 12.6 21.6 85.5 18.1 48.1 31.4 15.5
CV (%) 140.6 177.0 390.6 136.3 321.1 280.0 71.5
PGR Elasticity Identity Elasticity Elasticity Elasticity Elasticity Identity
2009 31,091 41,733 99 6,766 8,031 26,837 138,216
P2010 35876 50,500 116 8112 9573 32699 160591
P2011 40638 59,653 132 9504 11158 38859 183045
P2012 46052 70,513 151 11141 13013 46207 208778
P2013 52212 83,404 173 13067 15185 54979 238284
P2014 59223 98,718 199 15335 17728 65456 272139
P2015 67205 116,920 228 18007 20709 77976 311009
AVGR 13.7 18.7 14.9 17.7 17.1 19.5 14.5
CV (%) 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.8
2007 -10.5 35.8 -34.1 -4.4 22.0 57.3 16.4
2008 -9.8 4.8 23.8 19.9 12.4 -1.2 29.5
2009 13.5 20.6 18.8 18.3 1.3 28.6 18.7
2010 15.4 21.0 16.7 19.9 19.2 21.8 16.2
2011 13.3 18.1 14.4 17.2 16.6 18.8 14.0
2012 13.3 18.2 14.5 17.2 16.6 18.9 14.1
2013 13.4 18.3 14.6 17.3 16.7 19.0 14.1
2014 13.4 18.4 14.6 17.4 16.8 19.1 14.2
2015 13.5 18.4 14.7 17.4 16.8 19.1 14.3
2007 4.2 4.5 0.0 0.7 1.0 2.9 12.4
2008 3.3 4.2 0.0 0.7 1.0 2.5 14.2
2009 3.2 4.3 0.0 0.7 0.8 2.8 14.4
2010 3.2 4.6 0.0 0.7 0.9 3.0 14.5
2011 3.3 4.8 0.0 0.8 0.9 3.1 14.7
2012 3.3 5.0 0.0 0.8 0.9 3.3 14.8
2013 3.3 5.2 0.0 0.8 1.0 3.4 14.9
2014 3.3 5.5 0.0 0.9 1.0 3.6 15.1
2015 3.3 5.7 0.0 0.9 1.0 3.8 15.2
84
Year invtrade invtrans invfin invsocial agcularea agcropare agirrarea

a
α 4.08 3.84 6.15 6.45 7.76 7.70 9.70
(Intcpt)
β (Slope) 0.16 0.17 0.14 0.13 0.02 0.01 0.02
R-SQ 0.95 0.96 0.98 0.98 0.96 0.85 0.06
α -8.11 -8.41 -3.97 -2.85 6.46 6.59 8.45
(Intcpt)
β (λwrtY) 1.29 1.30 1.07 0.99 0.14 0.12 0.13
R-SQ 0.98 0.96 0.99 0.97 0.98 0.88 0.08
ExpGR 14.5 16.2 13.0 14.2 1.7 1.4 3.2
TRGR 17.75 18.17 14.68 13.55 1.76 1.49 1.53
AVGR 19.7 23.0 14.8 16.3 1.7 1.5 25.7
CV (%) 162.8 154.1 103.3 99.0 124.0 249.5 374.7
PGR Elasticity Elasticity Elasticity Elasticity 1.70 1.40 1.53
2009 11,293 16,827 43,518 66,577 4,211 3,450 19,936
P2010 13482 20114 50534 76460 4282 3499 20240
P2011 15736 23503 57558 86248 4355 3548 20550
P2012 18377 27478 65591 97332 4429 3597 20864
P2013 21474 32143 74779 109888 4504 3648 21183
P2014 25106 37620 85295 124118 4581 3699 21507
P2015 29368 44055 97335 140251 4658 3751 21836
AVGR 17.3 17.4 14.4 13.2 1.7 1.4 1.5
CV (%) 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2007 -17.7 59.9 -4.4 41.1 1.9 -0.3 46.5
2008 29.3 16.6 15.0 46.6 1.8 2.0 -38.4
2009 18.5 10.1 17.0 22.3 1.8 1.0 20.0
2010 19.4 19.5 16.1 14.8 1.7 1.4 1.5
2011 16.7 16.8 13.9 12.8 1.7 1.4 1.5
2012 16.8 16.9 14.0 12.9 1.7 1.4 1.5
2013 16.8 17.0 14.0 12.9 1.7 1.4 1.5
2014 16.9 17.0 14.1 12.9 1.7 1.4 1.5
2015 17.0 17.1 14.1 13.0 1.7 1.4 1.5
2007 1.0 1.8 4.4 5.1 0.6 0.5 3.7
2008 1.2 1.9 4.5 6.7 0.5 0.4 2.0
2009 1.2 1.8 4.5 6.9 0.4 0.4 2.1
2010 1.2 1.8 4.6 6.9 0.4 0.3 1.8
2011 1.3 1.9 4.6 6.9 0.3 0.3 1.6
2012 1.3 1.9 4.7 6.9 0.3 0.3 1.5
2013 1.3 2.0 4.7 6.9 0.3 0.2 1.3
2014 1.4 2.1 4.7 6.9 0.3 0.2 1.2
2015 1.4 2.2 4.8 6.9 0.2 0.2 1.1
85
Year agseed agfert Emp empagr empind empmin empmanf

α 7.74 10.47 8.69 8.66 4.26 (0.65) 4.06
(Intcpt)
β (Slope) 0.01 -0.01 0.02 0.01 0.10 0.11 0.09
R-SQ 0.08 0.02 0.99 0.85 0.91 1.00 0.91
α 7.26 10.74 7.27 7.92 -3.12 -8.92 -2.45
(Intcpt)
β (λwrtY) 0.05 -0.04 0.15 0.08 0.78 0.88 0.69
R-SQ 0.06 0.00 0.97 0.78 0.95 0.98 0.95
ExpGR 2.3 0.0 2.1 1.4 7.9 11.3 6.7
TRGR 0.74 -0.95 1.98 1.06 10.25 12.05 9.01
AVGR 7.1 11.3 2.1 1.4 8.6 11.9 7.3
CV (%) 481.9 525.0 42.2 99.8 112.7 15.4 124.0
PGR 0.74 -0.95 Identity Elasticity Identity Elasticity Elasticity
2009 4,179 12,750 12,056 8,870 1,325 30 799
P2010 4210 12629 12481 8975 1494 35 882
P2011 4241 12510 12880 9067 1660 38 960
P2012 4272 12391 13313 9160 1848 43 1046
P2013 4304 12274 13784 9255 2060 48 1140
P2014 4336 12158 14298 9350 2300 53 1243
P2015 4368 12043 14860 9447 2572 59 1355
AVGR 0.7 -0.9 3.5 1.1 11.7 11.8 9.2
CV (%) 0.0 0.0 7.3 6.0 4.9 6.0 6.0
2007 -3.8 56.7 2.3 1.9 3.6 12.9 3.4
2008 12.4 -74.2 2.3 1.9 3.7 12.9 3.4
2009 10.0 288.1 2.4 1.9 3.8 12.9 3.4
2010 0.7 -0.9 3.5 1.2 12.7 13.2 10.3
2011 0.7 -0.9 3.2 1.0 11.1 11.4 8.9
2012 0.7 -0.9 3.4 1.0 11.3 11.4 8.9
2013 0.7 -0.9 3.5 1.0 11.5 11.5 9.0
2014 0.7 -0.9 3.7 1.0 11.7 11.5 9.0
2015 0.7 -0.9 3.9 1.0 11.8 11.6 9.0
2007 0.5 1.8 1.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.1
2008 0.5 0.4 1.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.1
2009 0.4 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.1
2010 0.4 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.1
2011 0.3 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.1
2012 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.1
2013 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.1
2014 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1
2015 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1
86
Year emputility empconst empser emptrade emptrans empfin empsocial

α 1.72 1.46 5.58 4.52 1.91 2.06 5.13
(Intcpt)
β (Slope) 0.07 0.16 0.06 0.07 0.11 0.08 0.05
R-SQ 0.70 0.82 0.94 0.99 0.90 1.00 0.79
α -3.35 -10.86 0.88 -0.66 -6.72 -3.58 1.47
(Intcpt)
β (λwrtY) 0.55 1.30 0.50 0.55 0.91 0.60 0.39
R-SQ 0.62 0.88 0.96 1.00 0.94 0.99 0.83
ExpGR 11.5 11.9 6.1 6.6 9.1 7.7 4.7
TRGR 7.73 17.46 6.50 7.26 12.10 8.00 4.94
AVGR 13.7 15.0 6.3 6.9 10.1 8.0 5.0
CV (%) 143.2 163.8 57.9 29.3 118.6 6.6 105.5
PGR Elasticity Elasticity Identity Elasticity Elasticity Elasticity Elasticity
2009 126 369 1,861 938 206 111 607
P2010 136 441 2011 1015 234 120 642
P2011 146 516 2152 1087 261 130 674
P2012 156 603 2305 1165 292 140 708
P2013 167 705 2470 1248 327 151 744
P2014 179 825 2648 1338 366 163 781
P2015 192 965 2841 1434 410 175 821
AVGR 7.3 17.4 7.3 7.3 12.2 8.0 5.2
CV (%) 6.0 6.0 5.4 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0
2007 15.4 0.6 3.3 5.5 3.8 7.3 -0.2
2008 15.4 0.6 3.4 5.5 3.8 7.3 -0.2
2009 15.4 0.6 3.5 5.5 3.8 7.3 -0.2
2010 8.2 19.5 8.1 8.2 13.7 9.0 5.8
2011 7.1 16.8 7.0 7.1 11.8 7.8 5.0
2012 7.1 16.9 7.1 7.1 11.9 7.8 5.0
2013 7.1 16.9 7.2 7.2 11.9 7.8 5.0
2014 7.2 17.0 7.2 7.2 11.9 7.8 5.1
2015 7.2 17.1 7.3 7.2 12.0 7.9 5.1
2007 0.01 0.05 0.24 0.12 0.03 0.01 0.08
2008 0.01 0.04 0.22 0.11 0.02 0.01 0.07
2009 0.01 0.04 0.19 0.10 0.02 0.01 0.06
2010 0.01 0.04 0.18 0.09 0.02 0.01 0.06
2011 0.01 0.04 0.17 0.09 0.02 0.01 0.05
2012 0.01 0.04 0.16 0.08 0.02 0.01 0.05
2013 0.01 0.04 0.15 0.08 0.02 0.01 0.05
2014 0.01 0.05 0.15 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.04
2015 0.01 0.05 0.14 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.04
87
Year gfexp gfcrexp gfcapexp gfamort gfreceipt gfrev gftax

α 7.49 6.12 7.34 3.00 7.07 6.78 6.58
(Intcpt)
β (Slope) 0.14 0.16 0.11 0.21 0.14 0.15 0.14
R-SQ 0.99 1.00 0.91 0.98 0.99 0.99 0.99
α -2.67 -5.67 -0.84 -12.52 -3.28 -3.92 -4.02
(Intcpt)
β (λwrtY) 1.08 1.25 0.86 1.65 1.10 1.13 1.12
R-SQ 0.99 0.99 0.93 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00
ExpGR 14.6 16.0 12.7 21.0 14.5 14.6 14.5
TRGR 14.79 17.44 11.60 23.50 15.14 15.66 15.50
AVGR 15.9 17.8 14.6 26.6 15.9 15.9 15.9
CV (%) 49.5 58.7 102.4 121.1 52.1 49.7 54.5
PGR Identity Elasticity Elasticity Elasticity Identity Identity Identity
2009 213,578 122,080 73,310 18,189 176,782 142,211 116,997
P2010 250567 145036 82840 22691 205916 166461 136763
P2011 288215 168555 92127 27533 235202 190940 156687
P2012 331922 195994 102496 33432 268806 219130 179603
P2013 382722 228024 114076 40623 307384 251608 205972
P2014 441835 265429 127013 49393 351695 289044 236329
P2015 510703 309135 141472 60097 402616 332214 271289
AVGR 15.6 16.8 11.6 22.0 14.7 15.2 15.1
CV (%) 5.4 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.9 6.0 6.0
2007 20.5 15.1 34.2 17.4 20.2 21.3 23.8
2008 20.7 18.5 34.7 -2.2 23.6 22.7 19.7
2009 32.4 33.6 37.0 11.0 38.2 32.1 37.4
2010 17.3 18.8 13.0 24.7 16.5 17.1 16.9
2011 15.0 16.2 11.2 21.3 14.2 14.7 14.6
2012 15.2 16.3 11.3 21.4 14.3 14.8 14.6
2013 15.3 16.3 11.3 21.5 14.4 14.8 14.7
2014 15.4 16.4 11.3 21.6 14.4 14.9 14.7
2015 15.6 16.5 11.4 21.7 14.5 14.9 14.8
2007 18.3 10.6 5.5 2.3 14.2 12.0 9.8
2008 19.7 11.2 6.5 2.0 15.6 13.2 10.4
2009 22.2 12.7 7.6 1.9 18.4 14.8 12.2
2010 22.7 13.1 7.5 2.1 18.6 15.1 12.4
2011 23.1 13.5 7.4 2.2 18.9 15.3 12.6
2012 23.5 13.9 7.3 2.4 19.1 15.5 12.7
2013 24.0 14.3 7.2 2.5 19.3 15.8 12.9
2014 24.5 14.7 7.0 2.7 19.5 16.0 13.1
2015 25.0 15.1 6.9 2.9 19.7 16.3 13.3
88
Year gfnontax gfgrants gfbalance gffloan gfdloan gfcashbal gfindtax

α 5.09 5.68 6.34 5.83 5.12 3.29 6.40
(Intcpt)
β (Slope) 0.15 0.12 0.13 0.12 0.14 0.15 0.14
R-SQ 0.98 0.97 0.89 0.77 0.91 0.47 0.99
α -6.07 -3.16 -3.44 -3.43 -4.74 -8.21 -3.96
(Intcpt)
β (λwrtY) 1.18 0.94 1.03 0.98 1.05 1.21 1.10
R-SQ 0.99 0.95 0.91 0.81 0.89 0.49 1.00
ExpGR 14.8 14.1 15.0 13.5 16.2 12.7 14.2
TRGR 16.32 12.97 14.07 13.05 14.60 16.38 15.12
AVGR 17.2 19.1 19.5 18.4 24.3 -1235.0 15.7
CV (%) 106.4 170.0 159.1 174.4 166.8 -524.5 66.8
PGR Elasticity Elasticity Identity Elasticity Elasticity Identity Identity
2009 25,215 34,570 (36,797) 10,405 25,000 (1,391) 82,820
P2010 29699 39455 -44651 11934 28941 -3776 97080
P2011 34253 44262 -53013 13445 32874 -6693 111509
P2012 39527 49676 -63116 15155 37360 -10601 128165
P2013 45636 55776 -75338 17089 42478 -15771 147403
P2014 52716 62651 -90140 19278 48319 -22543 169636
P2015 60925 70402 -108087 21757 54988 -31341 195345
AVGR 15.8 12.6 19.7 13.1 14.0 73.0 15.4
CV (%) 6.0 6.0 4.7 6.0 6.0 68.7 5.9
2007 11.7 14.3 21.4 22.4 51.2 -54.6 20.1
2008 35.5 28.6 10.9 -10.7 14.6 81.4 18.9
2009 12.2 70.1 10.3 15.9 22.0 -64.3 33.4
2010 17.8 14.1 21.3 14.7 15.8 171.4 17.2
2011 15.3 12.2 18.7 12.7 13.6 77.2 14.9
2012 15.4 12.2 19.1 12.7 13.6 58.4 14.9
2013 15.5 12.3 19.4 12.8 13.7 48.8 15.0
2014 15.5 12.3 19.6 12.8 13.8 42.9 15.1
2015 15.6 12.4 19.9 12.9 13.8 39.0 15.2
2007 2.3 2.2 -4.1 1.4 2.5 -0.3 7.2
2008 2.7 2.5 -4.1 1.1 2.5 -0.5 7.6
2009 2.6 3.6 -3.8 1.1 2.6 -0.1 8.6
2010 2.7 3.6 -4.0 1.1 2.6 -0.3 8.8
2011 2.7 3.5 -4.2 1.1 2.6 -0.5 8.9
2012 2.8 3.5 -4.5 1.1 2.6 -0.8 9.1
2013 2.9 3.5 -4.7 1.1 2.7 -1.0 9.2
2014 2.9 3.5 -5.0 1.1 2.7 -1.2 9.4
2015 3.0 3.4 -5.3 1.1 2.7 -1.5 9.6
89
Year gfcustom gfimpduty gfexpduty gfexrefun gfcusothe gfgoodsta gfexcise

d r x
α 5.68 5.42 3.09 3.27 (1.28) 5.74 4.66
(Intcpt)
β (Slope) 0.13 0.14 0.10 0.14 0.22 0.15 0.14
R-SQ 0.98 0.97 0.84 0.86 0.75 0.99 0.99
α -4.18 -4.60 -4.62 -7.45 -17.07 -4.99 -5.21
(Intcpt)
β (λwrtY) 1.04 1.06 0.82 1.13 1.68 1.14 1.05
R-SQ 0.99 0.98 0.84 0.88 0.74 0.99 0.99
ExpGR 12.9 14.0 9.5 10.5 13.1 15.0 14.5
TRGR 14.27 14.54 11.06 15.46 24.31 15.74 14.47
AVGR 14.5 16.2 20.6 55.3 17.0 16.0
CV (%) 88.7 105.6 264.2 216.0 86.0 68.0
PGR Identity Elasticity Elasticity Elasticity Elasticity Identity Elasticity
2009 26,641 21,403 775 3,812 651 56,179 16,293
P2010 30,968 24821 870 4462 816 66,112 18861
P2011 35,311 28238 962 5118 993 76,198 21424
P2012 40,288 32140 1064 5874 1210 87,877 24347
P2013 45,997 36599 1178 6744 1476 101,406 27682
P2014 52,549 41697 1304 7747 1801 117,087 31488
P2015 60,073 47526 1444 8904 2199 135,272 35834
AVGR 14.5 14.2 10.9 15.2 22.5 15.8 14.0
CV (%) 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.9 6.0
2007 8.9 16.0 13.3 -18.1 -27.8 26.2 42.1
2008 26.1 25.7 -37.1 58.0 3.2 15.6 21.5
2009 26.5 25.0 73.8 27.2 32.5 37.0 45.1
2010 16.2 16.0 12.3 17.1 25.2 17.7 15.8
2011 14.0 13.8 10.6 14.7 21.8 15.3 13.6
2012 14.1 13.8 10.6 14.8 21.9 15.3 13.6
2013 14.2 13.9 10.7 14.8 21.9 15.4 13.7
2014 14.2 13.9 10.7 14.9 22.0 15.5 13.7
2015 14.3 14.0 10.8 14.9 22.1 15.5 13.8
2007 2.3 1.9 0.1 0.3 0.1 4.9 1.3
2008 2.6 2.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 5.0 1.4
2009 2.8 2.2 0.1 0.4 0.1 5.9 1.7
2010 2.8 2.2 0.1 0.4 0.1 6.0 1.7
2011 2.8 2.3 0.1 0.4 0.1 6.1 1.7
2012 2.9 2.3 0.1 0.4 0.1 6.2 1.7
2013 2.9 2.3 0.1 0.4 0.1 6.4 1.7
2014 2.9 2.3 0.1 0.4 0.1 6.5 1.7
2015 2.9 2.3 0.1 0.4 0.1 6.6 1.8
90
Year gfvat gfgtaxoth gfdirtax gflandtax gflandrev gfhouseta gftaxprinc

er x
α 5.04 5.09 4.86 4.45 5.48 3.54 4.08
(Intcpt)
β (Slope) 0.16 0.02 0.15 0.10 -0.13 0.14 0.18
R-SQ 0.99 0.01 0.99 0.95 0.60 0.96 0.98
α -6.53 2.99 -6.43 -3.03 14.36 -6.46 -8.80
(Intcpt)
β (λwrtY) 1.23 0.21 1.20 0.79 -0.95 1.06 1.37
R-SQ 0.99 0.02 0.99 0.95 0.58 0.97 0.98
ExpGR 15.7 -11.1 15.5 11.5 15.2 18.4
TRGR 17.10 1.57 16.63 10.71 -12.48 14.51 19.19
AVGR 17.7 17.7 14.7 -7.2 18.6 21.8
CV (%) 70.8 83.7 179.8 -808.2 133.2 94.5
PGR Elasticity Elasticity Identity Identity Elasticity Elasticity Elasticity
2009 39,886 1 35,787 6,263 - 6,263 29,524
P2010 47250 1 42,849 7,262 0 7262 35587
P2011 54774 1 50,149 8,260 0 8260 41889
P2012 63529 1 58,736 9,399 0 9399 49337
P2013 73723 1 68,843 10,701 0 10701 58142
P2014 85598 1 80,746 12,189 0 12189 68558
P2015 99437 1 94,775 13,889 0 13889 80886
AVGR 16.4 2.7 17.6 14.2 14.2 18.3
CV (%) 6.0 6.0 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.0
2007 21.0 -30733.3 35.9 3.3 0.0 3.3 41.9
2008 13.8 -78.1 21.6 30.5 0.0 30.5 20.4
2009 34.0 -96.7 55.0 113.0 0.0 113.0 46.5
2010 18.5 3.1 19.7 15.9 0.0 15.9 20.5
2011 15.9 2.7 17.0 13.7 0.0 13.7 17.7
2012 16.0 2.7 17.1 13.8 0.0 13.8 17.8
2013 16.0 2.7 17.2 13.8 0.0 13.8 17.8
2014 16.1 2.7 17.3 13.9 0.0 13.9 17.9
2015 16.2 2.7 17.4 14.0 0.0 14.0 18.0
2007 3.6 0.0 2.6 0.3 0.0 0.3 2.3
2008 3.6 0.0 2.8 0.4 0.0 0.4 2.5
2009 4.2 0.0 3.7 0.7 0.0 0.7 3.1
2010 4.3 0.0 3.9 0.7 0.0 0.7 3.2
2011 4.4 0.0 4.0 0.7 0.0 0.7 3.4
2012 4.5 0.0 4.2 0.7 0.0 0.7 3.5
2013 4.6 0.0 4.3 0.7 0.0 0.7 3.6
2014 4.7 0.0 4.5 0.7 0.0 0.7 3.8
2015 4.9 0.0 4.6 0.7 0.0 0.7 4.0
91
Year bopexp bopimp bopgb bopservic bopsercr bopserdb bopincom

e e
α 6.37 7.36 6.84 5.75 6.63 5.70
(Intcpt)
β (Slope) 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.15
R-SQ 0.95 0.98 0.97 0.77 0.89 0.98
α -4.98 -4.12 -4.80 -4.62 -3.47 -5.74
(Intcpt)
β (λwrtY) 1.20 1.22 1.23 1.10 1.07 1.21
R-SQ 0.97 0.99 0.98 0.80 0.92 0.99
ExpGR 12.8 14.8 15.9 13.2 15.7
TRGR 16.47 16.77 17.08 15.70 14.37 16.73
AVGR 16.1 16.5 18.8 25.0 16.6 18.5
CV (%) 154.6 65.5 102.4 283.2 151.4 103.1
PGR Elasticity Elasticity Identity Identity Elasticity Elasticity Identity
2009 69,907 279,228 (209,321) (10,478) 52,830 63,308 11,750
P2010 82526 330292 (247,766) (13,541) 61300 74842 13,838
P2011 95372 382378 (287,006) (16,824) 69775 86599 15,951
P2012 110276 442914 (332,639) (20,798) 79459 100257 18,386
P2013 127575 513305 (385,730) (25,600) 90530 116130 21,193
P2014 147665 595194 (447,529) (31,394) 103192 134586 24,426
P2015 171005 690503 (519,498) (38,377) 117679 156056 28,149
AVGR 16.1 16.3 16.4 24.2 14.3 16.2 15.7
CV (%) 6.0 6.0 6.0 10.7 6.0 6.0 6.6
2007 0.0 11.0 17.2 22.9 21.2 21.5 50.0
2008 0.8 14.5 21.0 32.4 31.7 31.8 6.9
2009 12.8 28.1 34.2 -5.5 25.1 18.7 47.9
2010 18.1 18.3 18.4 29.2 16.0 18.2 17.8
2011 15.6 15.8 15.8 24.2 13.8 15.7 15.3
2012 15.6 15.8 15.9 23.6 13.9 15.8 15.3
2013 15.7 15.9 16.0 23.1 13.9 15.8 15.3
2014 15.7 16.0 16.0 22.6 14.0 15.9 15.3
2015 15.8 16.0 16.1 22.2 14.0 16.0 15.2
2007 8.4 26.2 -17.7 -1.2 4.4 5.6 1.0
2008 7.6 26.6 -19.1 -1.4 5.2 6.5 1.0
2009 7.3 29.1 -21.8 -1.1 5.5 6.6 1.2
2010 7.5 29.9 -22.4 -1.2 5.6 6.8 1.3
2011 7.6 30.6 -23.0 -1.3 5.6 6.9 1.3
2012 7.8 31.4 -23.6 -1.5 5.6 7.1 1.3
2013 8.0 32.2 -24.2 -1.6 5.7 7.3 1.3
2014 8.2 33.0 -24.8 -1.7 5.7 7.5 1.4
2015 8.4 33.8 -25.5 -1.9 5.8 7.6 1.4
92
Year bopincr bopindb boptransf boptrcr bopremit bopgrant bopothers

er s
α 3.84 2.61 5.69 5.73 4.47 5.46 3.26
(Intcpt)
β (Slope) 0.17 0.20 0.18 0.18 0.21 0.14 0.18
R-SQ 0.91 0.92 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.95 0.87
α -8.29 -11.99 -7.48 -7.46 -10.63 -4.84 -10.04
(Intcpt)
β (λwrtY) 1.29 1.54 1.40 1.40 1.61 1.09 1.42
R-SQ 0.91 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.84
ExpGR 14.8 11.1 18.1 18.0 20.4 13.8 15.4
TRGR 17.96 21.67 20.02 20.03 23.24 15.19 20.26
AVGR 46.3 37.2 22.4 22.3 27.2 17.6 48.6
CV (%) 335.1 273.8 127.6 127.3 164.5 160.3 329.6
PGR Elasticity Elasticity Identity Elasticity 13.3 13.84 15.40
2009 16,507 4,757 249,487 257,461 209,699 26,796 20,967
P2010 19700 5862 282,568 292,331 237629 30506 24195
P2011 22987 7036 320,281 331,931 269281 34729 27921
P2012 26837 8451 362,994 376,906 305148 39537 32221
P2013 31349 10156 411,363 427,986 345792 45011 37183
P2014 36640 12214 466,127 486,001 391850 51243 42909
P2015 42847 14698 528,120 551,896 444043 58337 49516
AVGR 17.2 20.7 13.3 13.6 13.3 13.8 15.4
CV (%) 6.0 6.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2007 26.8 9.1 2.3 1.8 2.5 -3.4 3.6
2008 -7.3 -22.2 41.7 39.2 42.5 15.2 46.9
2009 22.7 -13.5 36.5 38.8 47.0 27.6 -3.8
2010 19.3 23.2 13.3 13.5 13.3 13.8 15.4
2011 16.7 20.0 13.3 13.5 13.3 13.8 15.4
2012 16.7 20.1 13.3 13.5 13.3 13.8 15.4
2013 16.8 20.2 13.3 13.6 13.3 13.8 15.4
2014 16.9 20.3 13.3 13.6 13.3 13.8 15.4
2015 16.9 20.3 13.3 13.6 13.3 13.8 15.4
2007 2.0 1.0 17.7 18.3 13.8 2.5 2.0
2008 1.6 0.7 22.3 22.7 17.4 2.6 2.7
2009 1.7 0.5 26.0 26.8 21.8 2.8 2.2
2010 1.8 0.5 25.6 26.5 21.5 2.8 2.2
2011 1.8 0.6 25.7 26.6 21.6 2.8 2.2
2012 1.9 0.6 25.7 26.7 21.6 2.8 2.3
2013 2.0 0.6 25.8 26.8 21.7 2.8 2.3
2014 2.0 0.7 25.8 26.9 21.7 2.8 2.4
2015 2.1 0.7 25.9 27.0 21.8 2.9 2.4
93
Year boptrdb bopcab bopcapba bopgloan bopfloan bopamort bopfdi

l
α 2.18 3.75 6.83 6.03 5.88 2.57 6.74
(Intcpt)
β (Slope) 0.19 0.19 0.11 0.09 0.12 0.21 -0.02
R-SQ 0.93 0.81 0.64 0.44 0.75 0.91 0.01
α -11.88 -10.38 -1.98 -1.24 -3.47 -13.27 7.74
(Intcpt)
β (λwrtY) 1.49 1.50 0.93 0.76 0.98 1.68 -0.11
R-SQ 0.93 0.80 0.71 0.50 0.79 0.94 0.00
ExpGR 16.1 11.1 12.5 18.7
TRGR 21.10 20.79 12.01 9.71 13.07 23.83 -1.69
AVGR 47.2 123.8 56.3 -9.0 18.0 52.3 13.9
CV (%) 305.0 1087.4 667.3 -1996.3 192.7 393.2 2567.8
PGR Elasticity Identity 13.9 Identity Elasticity Elasticity Elasticity
2009 7,975 41,437 41,437 41,437 41,437 41,437 41,437
P2010 9763 49,933 35,099 35,099 35,099 35,099 35,099
P2011 11650 67,071 32,402 32,402 32,402 32,402 32,402
P2012 13912 88,733 27,944 27,944 27,944 27,944 27,944
P2013 16623 115,999 21,226 21,226 21,226 21,226 21,226
P2014 19874 150,191 11,630 11,630 11,630 11,630 11,630
P2015 23776 192,933 (1,606) (1,606) (1,606) (1,606) (1,606)
AVGR 20.0 29.3 -36.6 -36.6 -36.6 -36.6 -36.6
CV (%) 6.0 16.3 -109.2 -109.2 -109.2 -109.2 -109.2
2007 -10.8 -106.3 -21.5 205.6 26.0 7.9 -177.1
2008 -37.1 -2724.7 5.7 60.7 16.9 4.4 -18.9
2009 201.3 75.0 98.1 -182.0 -35.7 28.6 522.4
2010 22.4 -15.3 13.9 52.1 14.8 25.2 -1.7
2011 19.3 -7.7 12.0 39.2 12.8 21.8 -1.5
2012 19.4 -13.8 12.0 36.1 12.8 21.8 -1.5
2013 19.5 -24.0 12.1 33.8 12.9 21.9 -1.5
2014 19.6 -45.2 12.1 32.0 12.9 22.0 -1.5
2015 19.6 -113.8 12.2 30.7 13.0 22.1 -1.5
2007 0.6 -0.1 1.6 0.3 1.3 -1.0 0.0
2008 0.3 2.9 1.5 0.4 1.4 -1.0 0.0
2009 0.8 4.3 2.5 -0.3 0.8 -1.1 0.2
2010 0.9 3.2 2.5 -0.4 0.8 -1.1 0.2
2011 0.9 2.6 2.5 -0.5 0.8 -1.2 0.1
2012 1.0 2.0 2.5 -0.6 0.8 -1.3 0.1
2013 1.0 1.3 2.4 -0.7 0.8 -1.4 0.1
2014 1.1 0.6 2.4 -0.8 0.8 -1.6 0.1
2015 1.2 -0.1 2.4 -0.9 0.8 -1.7 0.1
94
Year bopbal bopresch exrate$ mnfa mnda mcredit mcrgov

α 6.20 4.43 2.23 6.64 7.05 7.42 6.52
(Intcpt)
β (Slope) 0.13 0.18 0.07 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.16
R-SQ 0.76 0.64 0.93 0.96 0.99 0.99 0.94
α -3.29 -8.24 -3.02 -5.66 -5.41 -5.15 -5.18
(Intcpt)
β (λwrtY) 1.00 1.35 0.55 1.30 1.32 1.33 1.24
R-SQ 0.80 0.67 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.99 0.95
ExpGR 14.7 5.8 15.8 17.6 17.1 17.5
TRGR 13.38 19.25 7.24 18.07 18.59 18.67 17.20
AVGR 45.4 308.8 6.3 19.2 19.9 18.9 20.6
CV (%) 305.3 347.5 128.4 121.6 64.4 39.0 103.6
PGR Identity 20.2 8.3 19.6 Identity Identity 18.6
2009 65,718 (41,280) 77 221,084 411,662 557,779 109,015
P2010 62,758 -49637 83 264382 495,315 680,063 129342
P2011 63,379 -58302 89 309032 582,299 808,830 150139
P2012 62,653 -68520 96 361427 685,152 962,782 174375
P2013 60,131 -80575 103 422942 806,864 1,146,978 202631
P2014 55,257 -94805 110 495201 951,003 1,367,521 235592
P2015 47,336 -111611 118 580122 1,121,833 1,631,771 274057
AVGR -5.2 18.0 7.4 17.4 18.2 19.6 16.6
CV (%) -105.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.8 5.9 6.0
2007 -63.1 -76.9 -2.5 -5.4 26.7 19.0 9.9
2008 236.3 402.6 -7.8 30.0 22.9 21.1 10.9
2009 82.9 39.1 18.2 28.9 27.1 26.1 18.4
2010 -4.5 20.2 8.3 19.6 20.3 21.9 18.6
2011 1.0 17.5 7.2 16.9 17.6 18.9 16.1
2012 -1.1 17.5 7.2 17.0 17.7 19.0 16.1
2013 -4.0 17.6 7.2 17.0 17.8 19.1 16.2
2014 -8.1 17.7 7.3 17.1 17.9 19.2 16.3
2015 -14.3 17.7 7.3 17.1 18.0 19.3 16.3
2007 1.5 -0.8 0.0 18.1 36.2 50.2 11.4
2008 4.4 -3.6 0.0 21.0 39.6 54.0 11.3
2009 6.8 -4.3 0.0 23.0 42.9 58.1 11.4
2010 5.7 -4.5 0.0 23.9 44.9 61.6 11.7
2011 5.1 -4.7 0.0 24.8 46.7 64.8 12.0
2012 4.4 -4.9 0.0 25.6 48.6 68.3 12.4
2013 3.8 -5.1 0.0 26.5 50.6 71.9 12.7
2014 3.1 -5.3 0.0 27.5 52.7 75.8 13.1
2015 2.3 -5.5 0.0 28.4 55.0 80.0 13.4
95
Year mcrpub mcrpvt mothers m2d m2s m1 mcurrenc

y
α 6.53 6.29 6.17 7.62 7.62 7.10 6.69
(Intcpt)
β (Slope) 0.09 0.20 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.15 0.15
R-SQ 0.88 0.99 0.98 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99
α -0.51 -8.06 -6.78 -4.63 -4.63 -3.72 -4.22
(Intcpt)
β (λwrtY) 0.75 1.52 1.37 1.30 1.30 1.15 1.16
R-SQ 0.89 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
ExpGR 7.2 18.6 16.2 16.8 16.8 14.7 14.5
TRGR 9.96 21.57 19.07 18.15 18.15 15.86 15.97
AVGR 9.7 21.0 18.4 18.5 18.5 16.0 15.7
CV (%) 212.4 53.1 83.5 29.9 29.9 37.3 38.2
PGR 11.2 22.9 20.6 Identity Identity Identity 17.4
2009 6,468 442,296 (146,118) 632,745 632,745 196,461 125,760
P2010 7194 543528 -184748 759,697 759,697 230,342 147626
P2011 7889 650802 -226531 891,331 891,331 264,598 169760
P2012 8655 779752 -277629 1,046,579 1,046,579 304,103 195313
P2013 9498 934849 -340114 1,229,806 1,229,806 349,682 224825
P2014 10427 1121502 -416517 1,446,204 1,446,204 402,292 258927
P2015 11450 1346264 -509939 1,701,955 1,701,955 463,047 298347
AVGR 10.0 20.4 23.2 17.9 17.9 15.4 15.5
CV (%) 6.0 6.0 6.9 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.0
2007 -60.3 28.5 2.6 13.8 13.8 10.9 7.2
2008 7.2 24.5 16.5 25.2 25.2 21.6 19.9
2009 -11.6 29.0 23.5 27.7 27.7 27.3 25.5
2010 11.2 22.9 26.4 20.1 20.1 17.2 17.4
2011 9.7 19.7 22.6 17.3 17.3 14.9 15.0
2012 9.7 19.8 22.6 17.4 17.4 14.9 15.1
2013 9.7 19.9 22.5 17.5 17.5 15.0 15.1
2014 9.8 20.0 22.5 17.6 17.6 15.0 15.2
2015 9.8 20.0 22.4 17.7 17.7 15.1 15.2
2007 0.9 37.8 -14.0 54.3 54.3 17.4 11.5
2008 0.9 41.9 -14.5 60.5 60.5 18.9 12.2
2009 0.7 46.1 -15.2 65.9 65.9 20.5 13.1
2010 0.7 49.2 -16.7 68.8 68.8 20.9 13.4
2011 0.6 52.2 -18.2 71.4 71.4 21.2 13.6
2012 0.6 55.3 -19.7 74.2 74.2 21.6 13.9
2013 0.6 58.6 -21.3 77.1 77.1 21.9 14.1
2014 0.6 62.2 -23.1 80.2 80.2 22.3 14.4
2015 0.6 66.0 -25.0 83.4 83.4 22.7 14.6
96
Year mdd mfd dfyfc dfyagr dfyind dfyser drsav

α 6.01 6.78 2.27 2.50 2.41 1.86 2.38
(Intcpt)
β (Slope) 0.15 0.18 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.10 -0.03
R-SQ 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.95 0.99 0.61
α -4.64 -6.60 -3.97 -3.06 -3.79 -5.32 4.17
(Intcpt)
β (λwrtY) 1.13 1.42 0.66 0.59 0.66 0.76 -0.19
R-SQ 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.00 0.98 1.00 0.56
ExpGR 15.1 18.8 7.8 6.9 7.8 9.1 (1.5)
TRGR 15.64 19.98 8.79 7.80 8.65 10.23 -2.55
AVGR 16.8 21.0 8.2 7.3 8.4 9.7 -1.1
CV (%) 64.8 37.8 48.6 73.5 83.3 72.7 -769.5
PGR 17.0 21.3 Identity Identity Identity Identity -2.6
2009 70,701 436,284 164 151 156 171 4.8
P2010 82716 529355 182 171 175 188 5.0
P2011 94837 626734 197 182 189 204 4.9
P2012 108789 742477 212 194 203 222 4.7
P2013 124856 880124 229 207 219 242 4.6
P2014 143366 1043912 247 221 236 263 4.5
P2015 164699 1238908 266 236 254 286 4.4
AVGR 15.1 19.0 8.5 7.7 8.5 9.0 -1.3
CV (%) 6.0 6.0 17.4 32.5 22.3 5.4 -255.0
2007 18.8 15.3 7.7 6.1 5.8 8.5 0.0
2008 25.0 27.0 6.3 7.2 7.5 5.2 21.4
2009 30.5 27.9 12.4 14.9 9.1 11.2 11.8
2010 17.0 21.3 11.5 12.9 12.3 10.0 5.3
2011 14.7 18.4 7.8 6.7 7.7 8.7 -2.6
2012 14.7 18.5 7.8 6.7 7.7 8.7 -2.6
2013 14.8 18.5 7.9 6.7 7.7 8.8 -2.6
2014 14.8 18.6 7.9 6.7 7.7 8.8 -2.6
2015 14.9 18.7 7.9 6.7 7.8 8.8 -2.6
2007 6.0 36.9
2008 6.6 41.7
2009 7.4 45.4
2010 7.5 47.9
2011 7.6 50.2
2012 7.7 52.7
2013 7.8 55.2
2014 7.9 57.9
2015 8.1 60.7
97
Year dr1yr dr2yr bankrate lrind lragr lrexp lrcom

α 2.89 2.97 2.96 2.76 2.58 2.71 3.06
(Intcpt)
β (Slope) -0.04 -0.04 -0.03 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -0.02
R-SQ 0.76 0.76 0.84 0.18 0.00 0.29 0.59
α 5.57 5.60 5.35 3.21 2.48 3.50 4.35
(Intcpt)
β (λwrtY) -0.29 -0.28 -0.25 -0.05 0.01 -0.09 -0.14
R-SQ 0.71 0.70 0.81 0.13 0.00 0.22 0.54
ExpGR (2.7) (2.8) (2.5) (1.0) (1.0) (1.6) -1.4
TRGR -3.75 -3.69 -3.27 -0.75 -0.01 -1.26 -1.85
AVGR -2.0 -2.4 -2.1 -0.7 -0.4 -1.0 -1.0
CV (%) -587.3 -389.8 -411.9 -908.5 -3110.6 -1086.0 -952.3
PGR -3.7 -3.7 -3.3 -1.0 -1.0 -1.6 -1.9
2009 6.0 6.1 6.5 10.8 10.8 8.8 11.0
P2010 6.8 7.9 6.5 10.6 11.3 12.3 11.0
P2011 6.5 7.6 6.5 10.5 11.1 12.1 10.8
P2012 6.3 7.3 6.5 10.4 11.0 11.9 10.6
P2013 6.0 7.0 6.5 10.3 10.9 11.7 10.4
P2014 5.8 6.8 6.5 10.2 10.8 11.5 10.2
P2015 5.6 6.5 6.5 10.1 10.7 11.3 10.0
AVGR -0.9 1.6 0.0 -1.0 0.0 5.3 -1.5
CV (%) -794.9 802.6 0.0 -5561.3 317.6 -49.0
2007 0.0 -10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -25.0
2008 17.2 18.8 4.0 -7.0 -11.1 0.0 0.0
2009 40.0 28.9 0.0 7.5 7.5 6.1 33.3
2010 13.4 28.2 0.0 -1.0 4.7 40.0 0.0
2011 -3.7 -3.7 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.6 -1.9
2012 -3.7 -3.7 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.6 -1.9
2013 -3.7 -3.7 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.6 -1.9
2014 -3.7 -3.7 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.6 -1.9
2015 -3.7 -3.7 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.6 -1.9
98
Year cpi cpifood cpinonfoo infcpi inffood infnonfoo infdfy

d d
α 2.61 2.58 2.66 2.10 2.31 2.29 1.93

(Intcpt)
β (Slope) 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.00 -0.02 -0.01 0.00
R-SQ 0.98 0.98 0.99 0.00 0.04 0.12 0.00
α -3.63 -3.71 -3.48 1.88 4.06 3.20 1.77

(Intcpt)
β (λwrtY) 0.66 0.67 0.65 0.02 -0.19 -0.10 0.02
R-SQ 1.00 0.99 1.00 0.00
ExpGR 7.9 7.9 7.9 6.3
TRGR 8.79 8.85 8.67 0.25 -2.36 -1.34 0.29
AVGR 8.3 8.4 8.2 -19.6 -26.3 -18.6
CV (%) 61.3 74.4 34.3 -904.9 -815.2 -754.6
PGR 7.9 7.9 7.9 Derived Derived Derived Derived
2009 226.7 226.0 224.0 13.2 14.8 9.8 12.4
P2010 249 253 244 10.0 12.0 9.0 11.5
P2011 269 273 263 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.8
P2012 290 295 284 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.8
P2013 313 318 307 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9
P2014 338 343 331 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9
P2015 365 370 357 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9
AVGR 8.2 8.6 8.1 -7.6 -8.8 -3.4 -6.3
CV (%) 10.4 19.5 5.6 -155.5 -164.4 -159.5 -205.2
2007 6.4 7.2 5.7 -19.6 -8.0 -29.2 9.7
2008 7.7 10.1 5.0 20.0 40.7 -11.7 -17.9
2009 13.2 14.8 9.8 72.1 46.0 96.4 96.3
2010 10.0 12.0 9.0 -24.5 -18.8 -8.2 -7.6
2011 7.9 7.9 7.9 -21.1 -34.2 -12.3 -32.0
2012 7.9 7.9 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
2013 7.9 7.9 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
2014 7.9 7.9 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
2015 7.9 7.9 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
99
Year infdfagr infdfind infdfser oilprice wpiworld cpiIndian wpiInd

α 1.53 2.44 1.81 2.58 1.47 2.46 2.71

(Intcpt)
β (Slope) 0.01 -0.02 0.01 0.03 0.12 0.08 0.07
R-SQ 0.01 0.16 0.03 0.41 0.98 0.99 0.99
α 0.97 4.01 0.98 0.36 -7.35 -3.24 -2.58

(Intcpt)
β (λwrtY) 0.06 -0.17 0.09 0.24 0.93 0.60 0.56
R-SQ 0.01 0.15 0.03 0.33 0.99 1.00 1.00
ExpGR 12.3 0.4 5.6 5.9 11.1 7.1 6.8
TRGR 0.92 -2.12 1.19 3.51 12.67 8.04 7.45
AVGR -99.4 -7.7 46.9 8.9 13.1 7.4 7.1
CV (%) -517.1 -1895.5 299.9 280.6 144.6 54.9 57.4
PGR Derived Derived Derived 3.5 11.1 7.1 6.8
2009 14.9 9.1 11.2 70.0 220.0 157.0 173.2
P2010 12.9 12.3 10.0 72 244 176 185
P2011 6.7 7.7 8.7 75 272 188 197
P2012 6.7 7.7 8.7 78 302 202 211
P2013 6.7 7.7 8.8 80 335 216 225
P2014 6.7 7.7 8.8 83 373 231 240
P2015 6.7 7.8 8.8 86 414 248 257
AVGR -10.2 -0.3 -3.9 3.5 11.1 7.9 6.8
CV (%) -188.1 -7436.8 -158.8 0.0 0.0 25.4 0.0
2007 41.1 57.7 -6.1 11.2 8.6 6.5 7.7
2008 18.3 30.2 -38.4 38.3 7.9 8.1 7.7
2009 105.7 22.1 115.4 -30.2 7.3 10.8 7.7
2010 -13.4 35.0 -11.5 3.5 11.1 12.0 6.8
2011 -47.9 -37.8 -12.2 3.5 11.1 7.1 6.8
2012 0.0 0.2 0.1 3.5 11.1 7.1 6.8
2013 0.0 0.3 0.1 3.5 11.1 7.1 6.8
2014 0.0 0.3 0.1 3.5 11.1 7.1 6.8
2015 0.0 0.3 0.1 3.5 11.1 7.1 6.8
100
APPENDIX-3:
Unit Root Tests (KPSS with trend)
Finding of the Unit Root Test on the set of variables in time series using
the method of KPSS (Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt, and Shin, 1992) is
presented below. All the tests are performed at the leveled form and with
trend and intercept. This test is based on the null hypothesis that the time
series being tested is stationary around a deterministic trend.
==================================================================
Notes: A variable will be stationary in KPSS test if it has the LM statistics is smaller than the
critical value at the desired level. For example, in table 1 below H0: AGCROPAREA is
stationary has LM= 0.15155 which is greater than 0.146 so Ho (AGCROPAREA is stationary)
is rejected at 10% level.
The stationary test of KPSS is a one-sided right-tailed test so that one rejects the
null of stationarity at the 100 · α% level if the KPSS test statistic is greater than
the 100 · (1 − α)% quantile from the appropriate asymptotic distribution. For
example, suppose for any variable the estimates KPSS statistic = 1.641, and 99%
quintile is 0.762. Since the KPSS statistic 1.641 is greater than the 99%
quantile, 0.762, the null that Vt is I(0) is rejected at the 1% level.
1. Null Hypothesis: AGCROPAREA is stationary

Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Bandwidth: 5 (Newey-West using Bartlett kernel)
LM-Stat.
Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin test statistic 0.151550
Asymptotic critical values*: 1% level 0.216000
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
*Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (1992, Table 1)
Residual variance (no correction) 22025.91

HAC corrected variance (Bartlett kernel) 90247.60
2. Null Hypothesis: AGCULAREA is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000

3. Null Hypothesis: AGFERT is stationary

LM-Stat.
101

5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
Residual variance (no correction) 5.71E+08

HAC corrected variance (Bartlett kernel) 2.81E+09
4. Null Hypothesis: AGIRRAREA is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000

5. Null Hypothesis: AGSEED is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000

HAC corrected variance (Bartlett kernel) 1308711.
6. Null Hypothesis: BANKRATE is stationary
LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
102
7. Null Hypothesis: BOPAMORT is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
Residual variance (no correction) 1114898.
8. Null Hypothesis: BOPBAL is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
Residual variance (no correction) 94324032
9. Null Hypothesis: BOPCAB is stationary
LM-Stat.
103
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
10. Null Hypothesis: BOPCAPBAL is stationary
LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
11. Null Hypothesis: BOPEXP is stationary
LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
104
10% level 0.119000
12. Null Hypothesis: BOPFDI is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
13. Null Hypothesis: BOPFLOAN is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
HAC corrected variance (Bartlett kernel) 26329193
14. Null Hypothesis: BOPGB is stationary

105
LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
15. Null Hypothesis: BOPGLOAN is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
16. Null Hypothesis: BOPGRANTS is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
106
17. Null Hypothesis: BOPIMP is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
18. Null Hypothesis: BOPINCOME is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
19. Null Hypothesis: BOPINCR is stationary

LM-Stat.
107
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
20. Null Hypothesis: BOPINDB is stationary
LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
21. Null Hypothesis: BOPOTHERS is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
108
22. Null Hypothesis: BOPREMIT is stationary
LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
23. Null Hypothesis: BOPRESCH is stationary
LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
24. Null Hypothesis: BOPSERCR is stationary

LM-Stat.
109
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
25. Null Hypothesis: BOPSERDB is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
26. Null Hypothesis: BOPSERVICE is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
110
27. Null Hypothesis: BOPTRANSFER is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
28. Null Hypothesis: BOPTRCR is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
29. Null Hypothesis: BOPTRDB is stationary

LM-Stat.
111
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
30. Null Hypothesis: CPI is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
31. Null Hypothesis: CPIFOOD is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
32. Null Hypothesis: CPIINDIAN is stationary
112
LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
33. Null Hypothesis: CPINONFOOD is stationary

LM-Stat.

5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000

34. Null Hypothesis: DFYAGR is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
113
35. Null Hypothesis: DFYFC is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
36. Null Hypothesis: DFYIND is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
37. Null Hypothesis: DFYSER is stationary

LM-Stat.
114
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
38. Null Hypothesis: DR1YR is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
39. Null Hypothesis: DR2YR is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
40. Null Hypothesis: DRSAV is stationary
115
LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
41. Null Hypothesis: DUMMY2008 is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
42. Null Hypothesis: EMP is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
116
43. Null Hypothesis: EMPAGR is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
44. Null Hypothesis: EMPCONST is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
45. Null Hypothesis: EMPFIN is stationary

117
LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
46. Null Hypothesis: EMPIND is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
47. Null Hypothesis: EMPMANF is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
118
48. Null Hypothesis: EMPMIN is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
49. Null Hypothesis: EMPSER is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
50. Null Hypothesis: EMPSOCIAL is stationary

LM-Stat.
119
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
51. Null Hypothesis: EMPTOTAL is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
52. Null Hypothesis: EMPTRADE is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
120
53. Null Hypothesis: EMPTRANS is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
54. Null Hypothesis: EMPUTILITY is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
55. Null Hypothesis: EXRATE$ is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
121
10% level 0.119000
56. Null Hypothesis: GFAMORT is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
57. Null Hypothesis: GFBALANCE is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
58. Null Hypothesis: GFCAPEXP is stationary

122
LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
59. Null Hypothesis: GFCAPEXPF is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
60. Null Hypothesis: GFCASHBAL is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
123
61. Null Hypothesis: GFCREXP is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
62. Null Hypothesis: GFCUSOTHER is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
63. Null Hypothesis: GFCUSTOM is stationary

LM-Stat.
124
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
64. Null Hypothesis: GFDIRTAX is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
65. Null Hypothesis: GFDLOAN is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
125
66. Null Hypothesis: GFEXCISE is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
67. Null Hypothesis: GFEXP is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
68. Null Hypothesis: GFEXPDUTY is stationary

LM-Stat.
126
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
69. Null Hypothesis: GFEXREFUND is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
70. Null Hypothesis: GFFLOAN is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
71. Null Hypothesis: GFGOODSTAX is stationary
127
LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
72. Null Hypothesis: GFGRANTS is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
73. Null Hypothesis: GFGTAXOTHER is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
128
74. Null Hypothesis: GFHOUSETAX is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
75. Null Hypothesis: GFIMPDUTY is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
76. Null Hypothesis: GFINDTAX is stationary

129
LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
77. Null Hypothesis: GFLANDREV is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
78. Null Hypothesis: GFLANDTAX is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
130
79. Null Hypothesis: GFNONTAX is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
80. Null Hypothesis: GFRECEIPT is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
81. Null Hypothesis: GFREV is stationary

LM-Stat.
131
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
82. Null Hypothesis: GFTAX is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
83. Null Hypothesis: GFTAXPRINC is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
132
84. Null Hypothesis: GFVAT is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
85. Null Hypothesis: INFCPI is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
86. Null Hypothesis: INFDFAGR is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
133
10% level 0.119000
87. Null Hypothesis: INFDFIND is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
88. Null Hypothesis: INFDFSER is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
89. Null Hypothesis: INFDFY is stationary

134
LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
90. Null Hypothesis: INFFOOD is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
91. Null Hypothesis: INFNONFOOD is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
135
92. Null Hypothesis: INV is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
93. Null Hypothesis: INVAGR is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
94. Null Hypothesis: INVCONST is stationary

LM-Stat.
136
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
95. Null Hypothesis: INVFIN is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
96. Null Hypothesis: INVIND is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
137
97. Null Hypothesis: INVMANF is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
98. Null Hypothesis: INVMIN is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
99. Null Hypothesis: INVSER is stationary

LM-Stat.
138
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
100. Null Hypothesis: INVSOCIAL is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
101. Null Hypothesis: INVTRADE is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
102. Null Hypothesis: INVTRANS is stationary
139
LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
103. Null Hypothesis: INVUTILITY is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
104. Null Hypothesis: LNYXGS is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
140
105. Null Hypothesis: LRAGR is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
106. Null Hypothesis: LRCOM is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
107. Null Hypothesis: LREXP is stationary

141
LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
108. Null Hypothesis: LRIND is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
109. Null Hypothesis: M1 is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
142
110. Null Hypothesis: M2D is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
111. Null Hypothesis: M2S is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
112. Null Hypothesis: MCREDIT is stationary

LM-Stat.
143
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
113. Null Hypothesis: MCRGOV is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
114. Null Hypothesis: MCRPUB is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
144
115. Null Hypothesis: MCRPVT is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
116. Null Hypothesis: MCURRENCY is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
117. Null Hypothesis: MDD is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
145
10% level 0.119000
118. Null Hypothesis: MFD is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
119. Null Hypothesis: MNDA is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
120. Null Hypothesis: MNFA is stationary

146
LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
121. Null Hypothesis: MOTHERS is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
122. Null Hypothesis: OILPRICE is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
147
123. Null Hypothesis: POPULATION is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
124. Null Hypothesis: TIME is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
Residual variance (no correction) 5.06E-30
HAC corrected variance (Bartlett kernel) 2.52E-29
125. Null Hypothesis: WPIIND is stationary

LM-Stat.
148
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
126. Null Hypothesis: WPIWORLD is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
127. Null Hypothesis: YC is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
149
128. Null Hypothesis: YCMP is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
129. Null Hypothesis: YCST is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
130. Null Hypothesis: YCSTAGR is stationary

LM-Stat.
150
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
131. Null Hypothesis: YCSTFISM is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
132. Null Hypothesis: YCSTIND is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
133. Null Hypothesis: YCSTSER is stationary
151
LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
134. Null Hypothesis: YFC is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
135. Null Hypothesis: YFCAGR is stationary

LM-Stat.
Asymptotic critical values*: 0.216000
0.146000
0.119000
152
136. Null Hypothesis: YFCCONST is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
137. Null Hypothesis: YFCFIN is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
138. Null Hypothesis: YFCFISM is stationary

153
LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
139. Null Hypothesis: YFCIND is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
140. Null Hypothesis: YFCINDTAX is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
154
141. Null Hypothesis: YFCMANF is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
142. Null Hypothesis: YFCMIN is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
143. Null Hypothesis: YFCSER is stationary

LM-Stat.
155
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
144. Null Hypothesis: YFCSOCIAL is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
145. Null Hypothesis: YFCTRADE is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
156
146. Null Hypothesis: YFCTRANS is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
147. Null Hypothesis: YFCUTILITY is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000

148. Null Hypothesis: YGC is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000

149. Null Hypothesis: YGFCF is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
157
10% level 0.119000


150. Null Hypothesis: YGFCFPUB is stationary
LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
151. Null Hypothesis: YGFCFPVT is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
152. Null Hypothesis: YGNDI is stationary

158
LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
153. Null Hypothesis: YGNI is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
154. Null Hypothesis: YINV is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
159
155. Null Hypothesis: YMGS is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
156. Null Hypothesis: YMP is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
157. Null Hypothesis: YPC is stationary

LM-Stat.
160
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
158. Null Hypothesis: YSTOCK is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
159. Null Hypothesis: YXGS is stationary

LM-Stat.
5% level 0.146000
10% level 0.119000
161

Tarun Das ADB Nepal Activity Report April 2010

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Monthly Activity/ Progress Report of Tarun Das, Macroeconomic Modeling Specialist

MONTHLY ACTIVITY/PROGRESS REPORT OF TARUN DAS,

Asian Development Bank Project No.TA-7165-NEP

For any clarifications, write to: das.tarun@hotmail.com

MONTHLY ACTIVITY/PROGRESS REPORT OF TARUN DAS,

1. Monthly Activity Report for the month of April 2010 3-5

3. Power point presentation on the Current status of works and 20-23

4. An operational consistent macroeconomic accounting spreadsheet 24-43

5. Appendix-1: Description of 160 variables 44-48

6. Appendix-2: Time series data for 1975-2009 and standard 49-71

7. Appendix-3: Linear time trends log (Yt) = α + β Time ; 72-94

8. Appendix-4: KPS Unit Root Tests for the variables 95-134

MONTHLY ACTIVITY/PROGRESS REPORT OF TARUN DAS,

1. Works Completed during April 2010

An alternative operational consistent macroeconomic accounting spreadsheet model has

2. Reports produced during April 2010

1. Updated Work Plan of Tarun Das, International Consultant for Macroeconomic

3. An operational consistent macroeconomic accounting spreadsheet model for

2. Meetings attended during April 2010

3. Ongoing Works and Outputs during May 2010

(a) Installation of EViews7 Software;

Submitted for favor of perusal.

ADB Project Coordinator

Nepal Rastra Bank

Subject: Updated Work Plan of Tarun Das, International Consultant for

1. Status of the Project Works as on Sunday, the 18th April 2010

1.1 Procurement and Installation of the Requisite Hardware and Software

1.2 Comments on the Model by Concerned Divisions in NRB

Consultants received written consolidated comments on the model by the concerned

1.4 Proposed Work Plan Submitted by the International Consultant

2.1 Data Base for the Updated Model

2.2 Role of the Local Consultants

2.3 Role of the Economic Analysis Division (EAD)

2.4 Role of the other Divisions

2.5 Academic Visits

Third week- Monday, 19th 3.1Presentation of the • Local consultants will

Weeks in the Second Activities Specific Role of local

Limitations of the ADB NMEM and Proposed Upgradation

Differences of Basic Features between ADB NMEM and Upgraded NMEM

Proposed Work Plan During Second Phase (April-May 2010)

From: Tarun Das, international Consultant on Macroeconomic Modeling

Subject: Proposed Work-plan for the Macroeconomic Modeling Team

2. Current Status of the Project

3. Proposed Work Plan for completing the Project

a) Hands on Training on application of EViews7 for NMEM for a day- Before

3.2 Building DSGE Model- two person-months in the third phase,

4. Human Capacity Building

5. Procurement and Installation of the Hardware and Software

6.1 Requesting Divisions to nominate two officers

6.2 In-Principle Approval from the ADB

(i) A payment of a token honorarium of US$200 each to joint authors on each

(ii) A payment of a token honorarium of US$50 each to the 6 chairmen of

(iii) A payment of a token honorarium of US$25 each to the 6 discussants in

(iv) A payment of a token honorarium of US$50 each to three reporters to provide

Items Rate in U$ Total in US$

1. Honorarium to 10 authors (two for each 200 per author 2000

(b) Academic Visit of the Modeling Group to India for a Week

Items Rate in U$ Total in US$

Submitted for favor of consideration

Strengthening Capacity for Macroeconomic Analysis (Component B).

Ref: Comments on Proposed Work-Plan

Dear Dr. Das,

Nephil Matangi Maskay, PhD

Power Point Presentation at the Technical Committee Meeting