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FORECAST SIMULATION IN ENGLISH

PRESENTED BY

Omaira Ramirez
Cristian Moncada
Jeisson Ramos
Nelson Cupa
Ender Cervera
Katherine Romero

PRESENTED TO

TUTOR: Ramiro Andrade Polanco

SENA
LOGISTICS MANAGEMENT 1310144
GROUP 6

2017
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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Presentation
Table of Contents 1
Introduction 2
General Objective 3
Specific Objective 4
Name of the Company 4.1
Main Business Area 4.2
Seven Steps to Make a Forecasting System: 4.3
Determine the Use of the Forecast 4.4
Select the Aspects to redacted 4.5
Determine the forecast horizon 4.6
The Influence of Product Life Cycle Growth, Maturity and Decline 5
Select The Forecast Models. 5.1
Determine the Use of the Forecast 5.2
Types of Forecasts 6
Technological forecasts 6.1
Demand Forecasts. They Are Projections Of 6.2
The Importance of Forecasting 6.3
Human Resources 7
Supply Chain Managemen 7.1
Economic Forecasts 7.2
Examples of Forecasting 9
Prognostic Graphic 1.2. 9-10
Conclusions 11
Bibliography 11 .1
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INTRODUCTION

He present simulation study of prediction is to visualize in the future the strategies

that must be taken in the short, medium and long term for the development of
productive processes financial resources and available human resources, in order
to improve the performance of the process line to increase the level of revenue
associated with the product, which will allow us to achieve the proposed objectives,
although the simulation of forecast is never precise, will provide enough
improvement tools in order to increase the competitive advantages of the
company.
The great thing about this forecast simulation tool is that it serves both small and
large companies knowing how to choose the model.
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GENERAL OBJECTIVE

Learn to Know and calculate an event by means of the forecast simulation tool
obtaining short and medium term improvement strategies.

SPECIFIC GOAL

A market study will carried out in which the supply and demand of cheese and its
derivatives can be clearly identified as well as a study to identify the competition
and the potential customers that allow the elaboration of marketing of the company

Calculate the product needs for each period of the planning horizon, evaluate such
plans in relation to the stated objectives, usually cost and demand compliance.

With the forecast method of the demand respond efficiently to a predictable

demand, in the market
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a. Name of the company

Dairy products San Sebastian

b. Main business area

Production of kind Paipa cheese

SEVEN STEPS TO MAKE A FORECASTING SYSTEM:

One) Determine the use of the forecast

The company San Sebastian will perform a forecast simulation in the financial and
production areas, to know if it has enough capital to invest in new technology for
the production sector, since the company has a demand for growth in the region
the company Seeks to increase and expand its product to department level.

Two) select the aspects to predicted

Sell your product Paipa type farm cheese

Three determine the forecast horizon.

Short term
The company determines the monthly production levels, of each product
depending on the orders made by the customers, knowing this information
determines the amount of raw material used and the work shifts for each week or
month.
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Medium term
The company will carry out a marketing strategy in the municipality and
department, to know the demand of the product and its competence and to
formulate a strategy making a forecast simulation to increase production by 15% to
able to compete and to be in the market, and to level financial Buy a vehicle to
ensure greater agility of the product to deliver

Long term
We continue with the forecast simulation where we will know if in the course of a
year and a half, the company has an economic stability to buy equipment with high
technology for greater efficiency in performance, and increasing production to
compete in the market with new products.

Two The Influence of Product Life Cycle growth, maturity and decline

The duration of the product of the dairy company San Sebastian has a short life
cycle of its beginning and completion in process lasts 4 days to go to the market
where it is ready to consume, is a product that has a constant demand and work
under orders of This way do not have greater economic losses.

Four select the forecast models.

Including Delphi Method, allow to evaluate and identify changes in trends itself
uses qualitative judgment models.
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Determine the use of the forecast

Dairy San Sebastian uses production demand forecasts
To evaluate the results and compare the method with the lowest forecast error.

Three Types of Forecasts

The marketing area forecasts how the market will grow, what will be its own and
competitors' participation, what will be the price trend, what will be the new
products that will shake the market
In the production area, forecasts are made of the cost and availability of the raw
material, the cost and availability of labor, when maintenance will be required for
the equipment, what capacity will be necessary to meet the demand

Technological forecasts.
The dairy company San Sebastian will continue quarterly with the forecasting
simulation since in the long term the company plans to buy cutting-edge
technology and produce new products

Demand forecasts. They are projections of

With the forecast of demand and accuracy, the company will know if in the medium
or long this prepared financially to expand its production and make new products, if
it has sufficient personnel, if there is to make remodels in the facilities, with these
results you work to reach the objectives

4 The Importance of Forecasting

It is a tool that provides an estimate of the probability of future events in the
medium and long term in the financial level purchases, inventories since it is an
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objective process where past and present and future information is used, since it
allows determining the quantity of product to be elaborated, the amount of money
for selling, the amount of person to hire among others.

Human Resources
This forecast allows the company to know if it has the personnel to meet the
demand as well as seeks the internal and external equity of employees in critical
areas and apply certain adjustments, with the objective of action programs only this
works if the Forecasts are accompanied by improvements in both production,
technology and labor

Supply Chain Managemen

Working with forecast simulation in the Supply Chain, we find the information
management system that provides high levels of planning and facilitates strategic
decisions, and define in which part of the Chain to allocate financial resources in
production or distribution and align the Demand throughout the Supply Chain to
work coordinated and thus meet customer orders and at the same time work with
suppliers, etc. the forecast are critical and continuous processes that is needed to
have good results during the Planning, Logistics and Supply Chain,

Advantages
Visibility to plan
To advance stages
How to stock up on raw material to manufacture and distribute
Disadvantages
Random variations
Economic Cycles
Promotional Campaigns

Economic forecasts,
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The forecast allow the company to have a forecast of which month is better
economically than another, and if it is more favorable for the following year, this
depends on the country's economy and its inflation, Of the reforms tributaries if
they increase the prices of the inputs and other variables etc.
Examples of Forecasting

1. Determine the use of the forecast.

By means of the qualitative method, the members of the company make decisions
with respect to the demand of the cheese in its municipality that decided to expand
its market at departmental level to have greater competitiveness in the market.

2. Select the items to be Forecasts

The forecast of demand for the production of Paipa cheese, and the personnel
needed will be monthly

3. Determine the time horizon of the forecast

The members of the dairy company San Sebastian, have taken the decision to
continue monthly with the forecast of demand for the growth that had the
production of cheeses of 10%, and every 6 months in the financial, for to know the
economic stability of the Company and if they enlarge their market in the next 2
years.

4. Select the forecasting models.

The methods that will be taken into account are Delphi method that allow the
company to make their own decisions with their experience in the field, forecast of
exponential demand and qualitative.

5. Gather the data needed to make the forecast.

By means of the telemarketing and surveys that will be carried out to each
customer and store of the region, for to know the degree of satisfaction and
acceptance of the product, will as its closest competitors of this way will be
compiled the data for the forecast simulation.
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6. Make the forecast

The dairy company San Sebastian follows the procedure of forecast

7. Validate and implement the results.

The forecasts its analyzed every week to calculate the raw material that to take
into account for the production demand, which is constant and growing and to
know the state of its technological equipment and its employees.

Prognostic Graphic 1.2.3

GROUP 1 TOTAL PER YEAR

150.000
100.000
50.000
0.000

2010 10103010 G 1 2009 10103010 G 1

2008 10103010 G 1 2007 10103010 G 1
2006 10103010 G 1 2005 10103010 G 1
2004 10103010 G 1 2003 10103010 G 1
2002 10103010 G 1 2001 10103010 G 1
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GRAPH FOR THE SEMESTRAL

CALCULATION
100.000
80.000
60.000
40.000
20.000
0.000
2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001

SEMESTRE 1 CANTIDADES SEMESTRE 1 %POR AOS

SEMESTRE 1 %POR AOS SEMESTRE 2 CANTIDADES
SEMESTRE 2 %POR AOS

ANALYSIS

For the simple average I calculated by adding the values of January and dividing it
by 10 in the same way with each of the following months.
We calculate the total for years.
We made a calculation per semester this came from the sum of the first 6 months
of each year, from January to June and from July to December.
And we calculate the percentage per year example, value of the semester divided
by total sales.
We note that the first semester has a higher value than the second semester
It was observed that the largest number of units is presented in May 2010 with
21,371 as represented by the graph.
It must also observe that the lowest number of units was for September 2001 with
0.627 as represented by the graph
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CONCLUDING

The present work was done to know the future predictions and to plan strategies of
the sales, financial, technological and human resources and teaches us that to
make a bad calculation would take to the company to bankruptcy and a good
design will be the success of she, also we learned that the more recent the
forecast is used, the more effective it will be, as well as the many types of methods
that can be work depending on the need.

BIBLIOGRAPHY
http://losproductoresdeideas.blogspot.com.co/p/52-concepto-y-clasificacion-de-
los.html
https://utecno.files.wordpress.com/2013/06/metodos-cuant-y-cual1.pdf
http://148.204.211.134/polilibros/portal/polilibros/P_Terminados/Admon-
Person/Polilibro/Contenido/Unidad2/2.3.4.htm