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22
INSIDE INFORMATION
STEPHEN MCCLELLAN PULLS BACK
the Wall Street curtain p. 47
TRACKING INSIDER BUYING p. 14
SEA CHANGE FOR T-NOTES? REVERSAL OF FORTUNE:
Find out if the trend Symmetrical reversal
has turned p. 34 days p. 30
Market Pulse
8 The inside track
Find out how Dow stocks have performed after company
“insiders” took positions in them.
By David Bukey
Trading Strategies
13 Designing and testing a pattern-based trading system
This system identifies potential reversals around pivot highs
and lows.
By Howard Bandy
Advanced Strategies
22 Bonds and the first rule of trading
Where do we stand after a 25-year bond bull market? Get
ready to adjust your T-bond and T-note strategies.
By Howard L. Simons
On the Market
30 Why is the sky blue … and why do traders trade?
Do traders lose money because they are overconfident,
or because they pick the wrong stocks? It might be both.
By Active Trader staff
In every issue…
39 Global Marketplace 60 Trading Resources
International market performance. New products, services, and
books.
3 Editor’s Note 40 ETF Snapshot
4 Contributors
Volume, volatility, and momentum 62 Trading Calendar
statistics for exchange-traded funds.
5 Letters 64 Key Concepts
41 Futures & Stocks
6 Opening Trades Snapshot 65 Upcoming Events
Volume, volatility, and momentum
statistics for futures and stocks.
BY DAVID BUKEY
S
everal days after
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)
fell 8.9 percent
overnight on Oct. 20,
2005, Director Peter A. Magowan
bought $7.5 million of Caterpillar
stock. Magowan bought this large
stake when CAT traded just above its
three-month low. The stock jumped
51.65 percent within six months. FIGURE 1: GE INSIDER BUYING IN 2007 GE fell the first week after insiders reported stock
This purchase wasn’t confidential, purchases in 2007, but the stock bounced back over longer-term periods.
because the Securities and Exchange Source: eSignal
Commission (SEC) requires “insid-
ers” — all officers and directors of pub- February. But he also sold another $348 cy still exists, the following study gauges
licly traded companies — to report any million in July, just before it soared 31 how the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones
trades in their stock. Magowan reported percent within six months. Clearly, Gates Industrial Average (DJIA) behaved up to
this transaction within two days of his didn’t sell his stock because he lost faith six months after insiders reported buying
initial purchase. in Microsoft. significant amounts of their stock since
But are insiders always good investors? Insider-buying reports are easier to April 2005.
Admittedly, this is a cherry-picked exam- interpret than insider-selling reports,
ple; not all insiders buy at such fortuitous but neither offers clear indications of Are insiders really buying?
times. However, when insiders buy their what might be motivating company Each time company insiders trade, they
stock directly, they expect it to climb. insiders. Blindly following an insider’s must file a “Form 4” with the SEC, which
By contrast, insiders sell their stock for lead is no better than taking a “hot” lists several details about the trade: type
countless reasons — to diversify their stock tip from a friend. (buy or sell), date, share amount, stock
holdings, pay bills, exercise options — Despite this caveat, several academic price, and so on. Form 4 includes a great
not necessarily because they think the studies have shown stocks tend to rally deal of information, including whether
company’s stock will tank. Bill Gates, for within 12 months after insider buying. insiders bought shares directly and if that
example, sold at least $570 million of However, much of this research is purchase was part of their total compen-
Microsoft (MSFT) as it fell 8.72 percent in decades old. To determine if this tenden- sation package.
98 instances Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Day 8 Day 9 Day 10
Avg: -0.06% -0.06% 0.02% 0.14% 0.13% -0.18% 0.10% 0.14% 0.01% -0.01%
Med: -0.07% 0.03% 0.14% 0.14% 0.02% -0.09% -0.06% 0.03% 0.00% -0.11%
Max: 2.98% 1.89% 4.60% 3.87% 3.87% 2.52% 4.47% 2.79% 2.94% 2.24%
Min: -3.94% -4.27% -4.30% -4.27% -2.74% -7.11% -1.99% -3.76% -4.30% -1.64%
StD: 1.24% 1.10% 1.38% 1.25% 1.09% 1.14% 1.10% 1.18% 1.09% 0.80%
Pct. > 0: 46.94% 51.02% 56.70% 52.58% 50.52% 41.24% 45.36% 50.52% 49.48% 43.75%
TABLE 2: POST-REPORT STATS These statistics reveal that stocks traded sideways in the two weeks after reported insider buying.
Longer-term periods:
Stocks climb, but lag benchmarks
Figure 4 shows Dow stocks’ average and
median moves in the next two months
after insider-buying reports — from the
close on day 10 to the close on day 50.
These values are compared to the aver-
age 40-day move of all analyzed stocks
since January 2005.
Stocks rallied an average of 1.76 per-
cent during this period, beating the
1.40-percent benchmark move. FIGURE 5: LONGER-TERM MOVES Dow stocks jumped an average of 3.61 per-
cent from the second to the sixth month after insider buying. But again,
However, the median gain of 0.84 per-
this move wasn’t much higher than the benchmark, and the median
cent is less than half as large as the aver- 1.51-percent gain was much smaller.
continued on p. 1 2
Related reading
“The bandwagon trade”
Active Trader, March 2002. 98 instances Next four months LUM LDM
Novice traders often hop on “hot Avg: 3.61% 9.54% -6.08%
stocks” they hear about in the Med: 1.51% 6.91% -5.38%
media or from friends. This strategy Max: 30.28% 31.89% 0.00%
shows why doing so almost always Min: -19.67% 0.37% -20.59%
results in losses. StD: 9.45% 7.61% 4.41%
Pct. > 0: 53.41%
“Market Pulse: Stock Market
Patterns & Tendencies, Vol. 1” TABLE 4: LONG-TERM PERFORMANCE STATS Dow stocks were mixed over the next four
This collection of 12 past Active months. LUMs were higher than LDMs — a bullish sign, but stocks rose only 54
Trader articles provides in-depth percent of the time and lagged the benchmark moves (not shown).
analysis of the stock market behav-
ior surrounding a variety of price,
indicator, and volume patterns, but it shows stocks’ average and median lagged the benchmarks, so mimicking
including gaps, “reversal days,” VIX moves in the subsequent four months (80 insider buying probably isn’t a good idea.
swings, put/call ratios, TRIN signals,
days) — from the close on day 50 to the This research was somewhat limited in
and others. Detailed probabilities
from multiple years of testing are close on day 130. It tells a familiar story its exclusive focus on the 30 Dow compo-
included in each article. These arti- as stocks advanced but still lagged the nents over the past two-and-a-half years.
cles sidestep hype and show the benchmark. Stocks jumped 3.61 percent, Moreover, only 24 stocks were analyzed
good and the bad. on average, in the second to sixth month and nearly one-third of the examples
after insider buying, but the median gain involved General Electric. Examining
You can purchase and download
of 1.51 percent is much smaller than both more stocks over longer periods may
past articles at www.activetrader-
mag.com/purchase_articles.htm. the average and benchmark (3 percent). yield different results, especially if you
Again, the discrepancy between aver- studied different market phases such as
age and median moves suggests individ- the 1996-1999 bull market or the 2000-
age value, a discrepancy that implies a ual stocks’ typical gains after insider pur- 2003 bear market.
few big gains have skewed the average chases are less dramatic than they seem. Also, the study’s criteria aren’t set in
higher, which makes the median value The relationships among average, median, stone. Possible adjustments include larger
more representative of the typical price and benchmark gains in Figures 4 and 5 purchases ($100,000 or more), multiple
behavior. Although stocks jumped during are nearly identical, which suggests this buys from different insiders within a short
this period, it’s likely they didn’t outper- pattern lasts up to six months. amount of time, or focusing solely on
form the broader market. Table 4 lists the statistics behind Figure high-level executives.
Table 3 (p. 11) shows the details 5’s four-month move. The details are bull- Finally, some traders believe buying
behind Figure 4’s two-month move. At ish: LUMs are bigger than LDMs, and opportunities arise when an insider buys
first glance, the statistics are bullish: The stocks climbed more often than they at significant highs or lows. If, for
LUMs are larger than the LDMs and dropped. However, stocks gained ground instance, CEOs buy their stock at a 52-
stocks posted gains more often than loss- just 53 percent of time, and the 3-percent week high, they presumably believe it will
es. But this up move wasn’t particularly benchmark (see Figure 5) is a fairly high continue to rally. Also, if CEOs buy their
compelling — stocks climbed just 54 per- hurtle. stock at a 52-week low, they think it will
cent of the time, and the 0.84-percent bounce back.
median gain trailed the benchmark gain. Further research Although this analysis shows that
In short, the DJIA rose 32.62 percent dur- These insider-buying patterns failed to insider-buying reports aren’t viable trade
ing the analysis period, so this behavior uncover a promising trade idea. After signals in Dow stocks, it doesn’t mean
could largely be the result of stocks drift- insiders reported purchases, Dow stocks they aren’t useful. It may require another
ing higher with the overall market. initially traded flat before rallying over technique or different perspective to glean
Figure 5 (p. 11) is similar to Figure 4, the next six months. But those advances some tradable information.!
BY HOWARD BANDY
System code
// BuyMultiDayLow.afl
You can copy this code at // // SellMultiDayHigh.afl
www.activetradermag.com/code.htm // AmiBroker code for a trading system //
// that buys when the low of the day // AmiBroker code for a trading system
// ThreeDay.afl // is lower than a multi-day low. // that sells when the high of the day
// // // is higher than a multi-day high.
// Buy when the low is lower than the // BPSwitch chooses the BuyPrice to be either //
// lowest low of the previous three days. // Close or PriorLow // SPSwitch chooses the ShortPrice to be either
// Short when the high is higher than the // 0 == Prior Low; 1 == Close // Close or PriorHigh
// highest high of the previous three days. BPSwitch = Optimize(“BPSwitch”,0,0,1,1); // 0 == PriorHigh; 1 == Close
// SPSwitch = Optimize(“SPSwitch”,1,0,1,1);
// Long positions are entered using a // LLBBars determines how many days in the
// limit order at the previous lowest low. // long multi-day look-back // SLBBars determines how many days in the
// Short positions are entered using a LLBBars = Optimize(“LLBBars”,3,1,10,1); // short multi-day look-back
// limit order at the previous highest high. SLBBars = Optimize(“SLBBars”,10,1,10,1);
// // HoldDays determines how many days to
// Exit all positions at the Close after // hold the long position // SHoldDays determines how many days to
// three days. LHoldDays = Optimize(“LHoldDays”,1,0,10,1); // hold the short position
SHoldDays = Optimize(“SHoldDays”,3,0,10,1);
SetTradeDelays(0,0,0,0); // BuyDOW chooses which day of the week to
buy. // SellDOW chooses which day of the week to
PriorLow = Ref(LLV(L,3),-1); // DayOfWeek() == 1 on Monday, 2 on sell.
PriorHigh = Ref(HHV(H,3),-1); Tuesday, ... // DayOfWeek() == 1 on Monday, 2 on
BuyDOW = Optimize(“BuyDOW”,2,1,5,1); Tuesday, ...
BuyPrice = Min(PriorLow, Open); SellDOW = Optimize(“SellDOW”,2,1,5,1);
SellPrice = Close;
ShortPrice = Max(PriorHigh, Open); SetTradeDelays(0,0,0,0); SetTradeDelays(0,0,0,0);
CoverPrice = Close; SellPrice = C; CoverPrice = C;
Going long
For long positions, we found the follow-
ing optimal results using the S&P 500
Depositary Receipts as the in-sample data
from Jan. 1, 1995 through Jan. 1, 2005
and using the K-ratio as the objective
function we wish to maximize (see
“System code” — BuyMultiDayLow.afl): FIGURE 2: COMPARISON OF EQUITY CURVES Despite a strong correlation, the Nasdaq
Composite’s equity curve gained just 10 percent since 1995 (blue line), while the
• Enter at: prior low Nasdaq 100’s equity climbed to roughly 290 percent during the same period.
• Length of look-back: four days Source: AmiBroker, Quotes Plus
• Holding period: four days
• Day of week: Wednesday
In-sample Out-of-sample
Table 2 shows the results of applying 1/1/1995 to 1/1/2005 1/1/2005 to 9/21/2007
these optimal values to daily SPY price RAR MaxDD K-ratio RAR MaxDD K-ratio
data in the in-sample and out-of-sample SPY 40% 14% 0.10 19% 5% 0.06
periods. It might be too restrictive to take
positions on only one day of the week. TABLE 2: THREE-DAY PIVOT SYSTEM RESULTS SPY’s performance dropped sharply in the
We removed that restriction, re-optimized out-of-sample period (2005-2007). These results indicate it might be too restric-
tive to enter long positions only on Wednesday.
the parameters, and found the following
Source: AmiBroker, Quotes Plus
results to be optimal:
FIGURE 3: EQUITY CURVE — LONGS ONLY, 1995-2007 Despite several minor pullbacks, the re-optimized system posted consistent
gains in SPY since 1995.
Source: AmiBroker, Quotes Plus
In-sample Out-of-sample
tions on only one day of the week.
1/1/1995 to 1/1/2005 1/1/2005 to 9/21/2007
Removing that restriction and re-opti-
RAR MaxDD K-ratio RAR MaxDD K-ratio
mizing, we found these results to be
SPY 51% 12% 0.08 61% 4% 0.21
optimal:
OEX 48% 4% 0.21
NDX 26% 6% 0.10
• Enter at: close
COMP 29% 4% 0.14
• Length of look-back: 10 days
XLB -8% 12% 0.01
• Holding period: one day
XLE 47% 9% 0.05
• Day of week: any day
XLF 47% 6% 0.08
XLI 20% 3% 0.06
We re-tested the system in both in-
XLK -19% 10% 0.00
and out-of-sample periods with those
XLP 31% 3% 0.10
optimal values (Table 6). The K-ratio val-
XLU 10% 5% 0.07
ues are considerably lower for the short-
XLV 13% 5% 0.06
only system than for the long-only sys-
XLY 49% 4% 0.21
tem. This suggests the long side is more
Russell 1000 Stocks 29% 28% -0.01
reliable and out-of-sample results for
Russell 2000 Stocks 41% 32% 0.00
short trades may be weak.
TABLE 4: OUT-OF-SAMPLE PERFORMANCE (LONGS) These out-of-sample statistics suggest Figure 4 shows SPY’s equity curve for
that buying multi-day lows has promise. short trades from Jan. 1, 1995 to Sept.
Source: AmiBroker, Quotes Plus 21, 2007. Table 7 shows the short sys-
tem’s test results for various ETFs,
In-sample Out-of-sample indices, and stocks since 1995. Again,
results in the final three columns (2005-
1/1/1995 to 1/1/2005 1/1/2005 to 9/21/2007
2007) are truly out-of-sample. But these
RAR MaxDD K-ratio RAR MaxDD K-ratio
numbers suggest that selling multi-day
SPY 11% 9% 0.04 -1% 7% -0.01
highs is not profitable for this system.
TABLE 5: SHORT SYSTEM PERFORMANCE Restricting the system to selling short only
on Thursdays could explain its lackluster performance. Bottom line
Source: AmiBroker, Quotes Plus Multi-day lows and highs are useful indi-
In-sample Out-of-sample
1/1/1995 to 1/1/2005 1/1/2005 to 9/21/2007
RAR MaxDD K-ratio RAR MaxDD K-ratio
SPY 4% 15% 0.03 15% 3% 0.03 Related reading
TABLE 6: REVISED SYSTEM PERFORMANCE (SHORTS) Allowing the system to enter short Quantitative Trading Systems
trades on any day of the week improved performance. But these results show By Howard Bandy
that short trades are weaker than long ones. 2007, Blue Owl Press
Source: AmiBroker, Quotes Plus www.quantitativetradingsystems.com
T-note pattern
FIGURE 1: SYMMETRICAL
REVERSAL The second
the day’s range, followed by a day whose high and low are very Reviewing 10-year T-note daily price bar essentially flips
near the previous day’s, with an open near the low and a close data over the past six years for com- the price action that
occurred in the first
near the high. One way to interpret this behavior is by inverting parable market formations led to the
bar.
the price action of the first day on the second day — it effective- continued on p. 20
ly negates the price momentum or trend
that was in effect on the first day.
For example, if the first day (which
opens near the high and closes near the
low) is interpreted by itself as bearish, the
second day (which opens near the low
and closes near the high) could be inter-
preted as bullish.
The bars labeled 1 and 2 in Figure 1
show an idealized example of this type of
pattern. The first bar opens in the upper
half of the bar’s range and closes in the
lower half; the second bar reverses that
pattern, opening low and closing high.
Price jumped higher the next day.
Figure 2 actually contains this pattern
(second highlighted pattern from the
right) and five similar formations in the
10-year T-note futures (TY) from 2005.
The first pattern was followed by a signifi-
cant up swing, the second was followed
by an even larger downtrend, the third FIGURE 2: MIXED SIGNALS This stretch of 10-year T-note futures prices from 2005
was followed by another down move, and contained several symmetrical reversal up patterns, which have lower opens
price action after the remaining three was and higher closes on the second bar. Price action after these patterns varied.
mixed. Source: TradeStation
following pattern definition, which will ABS = absolute value rical reversal pattern, the T-note initially
be referred to as symmetrical reversal Subscripts0,1.., denote today, slumped, closing essentially unchanged
bars: one day ago, etc. one day later and -0.4 lower after two
days — underperforming the slight gains
1. Today’s high and today’s low are Note: T-note prices trade in 32nds one would have captured by going long
both within 2/32nds of and halves of 32nds; prices have been on any given day. Also, the odds of a
yesterday’s high and low. converted to decimal equivalents for all higher close were less than 50 percent the
2. Yesterday’s open is in the top the calculations. (For T-note futures first two days after the pattern.
half of the day’s range and its pricing conventions, see “Treasury However, the pattern started to outper-
close is in the bottom half of refresher” in “Key concepts” on p. 64.) form the benchmark price movement on
the day’s range. Code can be copied from www.active- day 3, and by day 7 was significantly out-
3. Today’s open is in the bottom tradermag.com/code.htm. pacing typical gains — after which per-
half of the day’s range and its Twenty-one patterns matched this defi- formance turned down sharply. And, the
close is in the top half of the nition between May 2001 and October odds of a higher close was greater than
day’s range. 2007. The solid blue line in Figure 3 50 percent from day 3 to day 7.
shows the median close-to-close changes Overall, there might be some indica-
As simple formulas, the rules are: that typically occurred in the first 10 days tion of potential upside follow-through
after these patterns while the black line after these patterns, but this is hardly a
1. ABS(H1 - H0) < 0.0625 (“benchmark”) represents the correspon- strong case. At best there’s a delayed reac-
2. ABS(L1 - L0) < 0.0625 ding median price changes for all one- to tion after which (and only until day 7)
3. (O1-L1)/(H1-L1) > 0.50 10-day periods during the review period. the odds are a little better than 50 per-
4. (C1-L1)/(H1-L1) < 0.50 (See “Key concepts” for an explanation of cent the market will close higher than it
5. (O0-L0)/(H0-L0) < 0.50 the difference between median and aver- did the second day of the pattern.
6. (C0-L0)/(H0-L0) > 0.50 age.) This shows us how the post-pattern This pattern has an obvious counter-
price behavior compared to the market’s part: a day that opens in the bottom half
where random behavior. The red line shows the of the bar and closes in the top half and
percentage of times price closed above does the opposite the next day — the
L = low of the day the closing price of the pattern one to 10 implication being the market has reversed
H = high of the day days afterward. the previous day’s presumably bullish
C = close of the day Interestingly, after the two-bar symmet- sentiment:
BY HOWARD L. SIMONS
Swaptions
FIGURE 1: THE LONG-TERM TREND IN 10-YEAR NOTE YIELDS Despite retracements in 1987, While futures traders think the
1994, and 1999, 10-year T-note prices were in a bull market between 1981 and 2003, world reflects active futures mar-
mirrored by the extended downtrend in yields shown here. From 2003 onward, the kets, this is a view as parochial as
picture is less clear. the famous Saul Steinberg New
yields to have bottomed at high swaption and swap rates stayed relatively low. This ship between the shape of the yield curve
volatilities and peaked at low swaption was the period when the yield curve was and swaption volatility (Figure 3). The
volatilities. flattening and inverting while the Federal yield curve is measured by the forward
A major divergence occurred between Reserve made 17 consecutive quarter- rate ratio (FRR) between two and 10
the two turquoise vertical lines: Swaption point rate increases. years; this is the rate at which you can
volatility plunged while both Treasury We can highlight the strong relation- lock in borrowing for eight years starting
two years from now, divided by the 10-
year rate itself. The more FRR exceeds
1.00, the steeper the yield curve.
Higher volatility contributes to a steep-
er yield curve as it widens the range of
possible interest rate outcomes and forces
bond buyers to demand a higher yield as
compensation. This relationship is so
strong that any increase in swaption
volatility will push the long end of the
yield curve higher and lead to higher
bond yields — lower prices for futures
traders used to thinking in these terms —
as a result.
Inflation expectations
The other determinant of the yield curve
capable of forcing the long end higher is
expected inflation. This was known for
years in theory but was difficult to prove
until the Treasury began issuing TIPS, or
FIGURE 4: EVOLUTION OF TIPS BREAKEVEN YIELD CURVE Over the past three years, the inflation-protected bonds in January
term structure of TIPS breakevens has oscillated between an inverted curve, 1997 (Figure 4).
implying declining future rates of inflation, and a positively sloped curve, imply- The difference between Treasury yields
ing rising future rates of inflation. For most of 2007, the curve has had a and TIPS yields is called the breakeven
strong positive slope. rate of inflation. This measure is surpris-
ingly impure. First, the Treasury rate can
plunge quickly in a financial panic as we
saw in February, August, and October
2007, amongst many other “flight-to-
quality” episodes. Second, TIPS yields are
buffeted by many embedded options,
including the tax rate on the accrual of
their principal and your own belief
whether the government does a good
(honest?) job in reporting inflation. But
these breakevens are the best we have to
work with, so work we shall.
Let’s construct a forward curve of TIPS
breakevens (Figure 5). Over the past
three years, the term structure of TIPS
breakevens has oscillated between an
inverted curve, implying declining future
rates of inflation, and a positively sloped
curve, implying rising future rates of
inflation. For most of 2007, this curve
FIGURE 5: THE FORWARD CURVE OF INFLATION EXPECTATIONS AND LONG-TERM YIELDS The FRR has been strongly positively sloping.
of expected inflation leads the 10-year Treasury rate by 96 days on average. Prior If we isolate one segment of this sur-
instances of rising FRR levels have led to increases in 10-year Treasury yields.
face that is between two and 10 years, we
Reverse-trade
equity
management
BY VOLKER KNAPP
Market: Stocks.
Test results: Figure 3 shows the system’s performance with However, the larger problem was the original system had
the equity management rules — which ultimately reduced prof- missed an opportunity to capitalize on an ongoing uptrend. The
itability. Let’s see how it affected other aspects of performance. dark green areas in Figure 3 represent the system’s cash position,
In the beginning of the test period, the system went into a which was at its peak during the system’s largest historical draw-
moderate drawdown and the reversal system rules kicked into down. This means the system didn’t create enough reverse-trade
action — and turned out to be wrong. opportunities and was mostly out of the market.
PERIODIC RETURNS
% profitable Max consec. Max consec.
Avg. return Sharpe ratio Best return Worst return periods profitable unprofitable
Net profit — Profit at end of test period, less commission. Exposure — ning trades. Avg. loss (losers) — The average loss for losing trades. Avg.
The area of the equity curve exposed to long or short positions, as hold time (losers) — The average holding time for losing trades. Max
opposed to cash. Profit factor — Gross profit divided by gross loss. consec. win/loss — The maximum number of consecutive winning and
Payoff ratio — Average profit of winning trades divided by average loss losing trades.
of losing trades. Recovery factor — Net profit divided by maximum Avg. return — The average percentage for the period. Sharpe ratio —
drawdown. Max. DD (%) — Largest percentage decline in equity. Longest Average return divided by standard deviation of returns (annualized).
flat period — Longest period, in days, the system is between two equity Best return — Best return for the period. Worst return — Worst return
highs. No. trades — Number of trades generated by the system. Win/loss for the period. Percentage profitable periods — The percentage of peri-
(%) — The percentage of trades that were profitable. Avg. profit — The ods that were profitable. Max consec. profitable — The largest number
average profit for all trades. Avg. hold time — The average holding peri- of consecutive profitable periods. Max consec. unprofitable — The
od for all trades. Avg. profit (winners) — The average profit for winning largest number of consecutive unprofitable periods.
trades. Avg. hold time (winners) — The average holding time for win-
Figure 4 shows the equity management rules had only three will help clarify this issue. In this test, we verified the effect of
winning years (an absent bar means the reverse-trade system had modifying a malfunctioning system by means of equity-curve
no trades that year). However, the modified strategy had better management.!
reward-risk characteristics than the basic system — Figure 5
shows the revised drawdown was shorter and only about half For information on the author see p. 4.
the size of the original drawdown. Trading System Lab strategies are tested on a portfolio basis (unless otherwise
Finally, the equity management version of the system found noted) using Wealth-Lab Inc.’s testing platform. If you have a system you’d
itself in the red (with an 8.9-percent loss) after 47 of its eventual like to see tested, please send the trading and money-management rules to
167 total trades. Its initial breakaway had an opposite effect on editorial@activetradermag.com.
overall performance. And although the number of total trades Disclaimer: The Trading System Lab is intended for educational purposes
was reduced from the original 193 (most likely, some trades only to provide a perspective on different market concepts. It is not
were simply filtered out by the new system’s altered behavior), meant to recommend or promote any trading system or approach.
Traders are advised to do their own research and testing to determine
there was no meaningful reduction in market exposure time (52 the validity of a trading idea. Past performance does not guarantee
percent vs. 50 percent). Figure 6 shows the stocks that generat- future results; historical testing may not reflect a system’s behavior in real-
ed the majority of profits remained relatively constant. time trading.
Among the positive aspects of applying this
risk management technique were a more than
threefold reduction in drawdown duration,
improved reward/risk ratios (e.g., net profit to
maximum drawdown), and a much better-shaped
equity curve.
However, the reduction in profitability is a
strong argument against this technique in its
present state.
that indicated Entremed had possibly series of data to be representative of the pattern was different. On a weekly basis,
developed a new cancer-curing drug. underlying population or distribution,” stocks that were heavily bought earned
ENMD opened at 83 the next day and Barber writes in the report. “Observing strong returns in the next week, while
closed at 51.81. Within three days, it was strong recent returns for a security, an stocks that were heavily sold performed
trading below 30, although it would be a investor might conclude that this security poorly the next week. This pattern holds
few years before it traded consistently is the type (or has become the type) of true for three or four weeks before revers-
near 12 again. security that generates strong returns. ing for several weeks.
However, the interesting thing to Thus, past performance is extrapolated to Barber believes these studies support
Barber and his colleagues was that this the future.” his theories of traders being overconfi-
news wasn’t news at all. More than five dent and trading even without an infor-
months earlier, the scientific journal Noisy trading mational advantage. The fact that stocks
Nature had reported the same thing, as Many traders are what Barber considers that are oversold in one year outperform
had the Times. “noise” traders — they are trading on those that are overbought shows that
However, the timing and the place- something other than information. In traders initially “follow the herd” and
ment of the most recent article sent
traders scurrying to their brokerages, try-
ing to get in on the action. “People expect small samples and short series
“The traders treated the story as a
major breakthrough,” Barber says. “There
was a huge price spike even though that
of data to be representative of the underlying
information was already out.”
And sometimes traders act on informa- population or distribution. Observing strong recent
tion that isn’t even pertinent to the stock
they are trading. When MCI, a wireless returns for a security, an investor might conclude
communications company that has since
declared bankruptcy and been bought
out by Verizon, was trading, it used the
that this security is the type (or has become
symbol MCIC.
There is an “MCI” ticker symbol, but it the type) of security that generates strong returns.
represents Mass Mutual Corporate
Investors, a closed-end investment com- Thus, past performance is extrapolated to
pany. Nonetheless, studies done by
Barber and his colleagues showed that
whenever there was news on the wireless
the future.”
company, it affected the stock of the –Brad Barber,
investment company. University of California-Davis Graduate School of Management
Barber calls this the “limited attention
bias.” In a May 2006 report entitled
“Systematic Noise,” Barber writes, other words, the knowledge they have have a tendency to choose stocks their
“[M]any individual investors cope with about a particular stock does not give peers are trading.
the challenge of sifting through thou- them an informational advantage over Over the course of a year, the stock
sands of potential purchases by consider- other traders. loses its luster as traders are not there to
ing only stocks that otherwise catch their Nonetheless, noise traders can have a affect its price, and it tends to return to
attention. Using news, extreme price big impact on stock prices. One of its “proper” position.
moves, and abnormally high trading vol- Barber’s studies, done in conjunction with In the short term, a stock remains
ume to identify when stocks may catch Odean, showed that stocks heavily pur- “hot” or “cold” for about three or four
investors’ attention … individual chased by individuals over the course of a weeks before it is ignored by traders and
investors are more likely to buy, rather year (i.e., there was a greater volume the price becomes normalized.
than to sell, attention-grabbing stocks.” increase among individual traders from In his report on noise traders, Barber
Another trader mindset is the “disposi- the previous year than among institu- says, “[I]t is unlikely that the trades of
tion effect.” This, Barber says, causes tions) underperformed stocks heavily individual investors are coordinated by
traders to concentrate on stocks that have sold by individuals by 4.4 percent in the the same factors that contribute to insti-
previously had strong returns. following year. tutional herding, such as principal agent
“People expect small samples and short However, in shorter time periods, the concerns, rational information cascades,
Stephen McClellan
why you don’t matter to
BY MARK ETZKORN
technology analyst. After a half-dozen whether they can attract more funds and
“Analysts are good years he jumped ship to Salomon keep their jobs. Hence, the book’s subti-
Brothers, where he spent eight years as a tle: Do What Wall Street Does, Not What it
at research — they’re vice president. His final, and longest, Says, to Make Money in the Market.
stretch on the Street was his 18 years at Because they are not chained to the
not good at making Merrill Lynch, where he was a first vice performance treadmill, McClellan argues,
president. individual investors are free to engage in
recommendations In 1984 — just as the personal com- true long-term investing — i.e., holding
puting age was hitting its stride — he positions for several years instead of sev-
or selecting stocks.” published his first book, The Coming eral months. He includes extensive guide-
Computer Industry lines for identifying the appropriate
Shakeout, an analysis of stocks for such a portfolio, with criteria
the computer industry ranging from low P/E multiplies to the
and its prospects. habits of a company’s CEO.
Full of Bull will certain- The book contains a bit of name drop-
ly confirm the suspicions ping and anecdotes some readers may
of many cynical investors find distracting, but they are intended to
about the trustworthiness help spice up what might otherwise be a
of analyst recommenda- dry treatise on analyzing balance sheets.
tions and the behind-the- The major message, though, comes
scenes wheeling and through loud and clear.
dealing on the Street. As McClellan, who says he still invests his
McClellan describes it, own money, has a different perspective on
the game is played by an the Street now that he’s no longer on it.
insular community of “I’ve been retired for a few years,
institutional investors which has given me the ability to see
and traders, investment things through the eyes of an individual
banks, and large corpora- investor,” he says. “I’m not caught up in
tions — the audiences to the trees — I can step back and see the
whom brokerage analysts forest.”
© 2007, Ethan Pines like McClellan primarily And one thing he sees is that the Street
gear their research. Retail does not operate for the benefit of the
into an immensely influential and prof- investors — although they don’t know it individual investor.
itable — but also conflicted and mislead- — hardly enter the picture.
ing — mechanism that is almost inher- Which is precisely where McClellan AT: The bottom line is that the bro-
ently incapable of providing straightfor- sees the friction, as well as the opportuni- kerage analysts have their institution-
ward, useful information for individual ty, for individual investors. Aided by al clients in mind, correct? The ulti-
investors. Because, as McClellan writes, round-the-clock financial news coverage mate goal of the analyst’s work is to
that’s not really its job. that turns analysts into celebrities, get the institutions to do business
McClellan, who recently turned 65, investors take the typical analyst buy, through their brokerage and gener-
grew up in the Chicago area and was ini- hold, or sell recommendations literally, ate commissions.
tiated into the markets while in college when in fact they usually mean some- SM: Yes, that’s how they get paid from,
through a summer job at a two-man thing quite different to the institutional say, a Fidelity, which allocates commis-
stock brokerage that operated at the investors the analysts are really address- sions every quarter on a per-analyst basis
Midwest Stock Exchange (now the ing. In essence, individual investors think given how much research, help, atten-
Chicago Stock Exchange). After college the brokerage-firm analysts on TV are tion, and assistance the brokerage analyst
and a tour in the Navy, McClellan earned talking to them, when in reality the ana- gives that institution.
an MBA from George Washington lysts are directing their messages to the But the brokerage firm analyst is also
University while working as an industry institutional clients who, ultimately, pay key to the trading desk, and it’s still fairly
analyst at the U.S. Department of their salaries. important to the investment banking
Commerce (DOC). Meanwhile, McClellan says, behind the department — no company that I’m
His first Street job was at a boutique scenes the money managers on the Street aware of would ever have a brokerage
firm called Spencer Trask, where his are trading the market furiously, chained firm as their investment banker if the
experience at the DOC ultimately helped to the annual (and quarterly, and weekly, firm wasn’t covering the stock.
him gain a foothold as a computer and etc.) performance reviews that dictate
“Investors pay too much attention to Wall AT: Let’s talk a little bit about the rec-
ommendation game — when buy
Street’s directives. Insiders know better than to really means sell, for example.
SM: It’s hilarious. There’s a great story
take Wall Street literally.” continued on p. 36
that happened fairly recently. An analyst fooled by them. treadmill. They’re not just scrutinized
had an “overweight” rating on a stock. I every quarter — although that’s when the
don’t know what the stock price was — AT: One of the other examples you biggest evaluation occurs — but also
let’s say $40. His price target on the stock write about is when a stock has four every day, every week, and every month.
was $30, indicating he expected the stock or five sell ratings, it’s about the time The portfolio managers are absolutely
to go down to that level. However, he the stock is going to bottom out. Do on a one-year treadmill. They don’t invest
had an overweight rating on it. professional traders time their trades in stocks — they temporarily hold them
Looking further at the report revealed in a contrarian way based on these for short periods. They’ve been forced
the overweight rating meant the stock ratings? into being traders themselves. Mutual
would outperform the other companies in SM: Traders — at least the ones on Wall funds are just hand-tied and inhibited
that industry sector — they’d all go Street — are good for five minutes or two from being able to [be true long-term
down, but the others would go down hours or two days. They’re not looking at investors].
more than this particular stock. So his two months.
rating tells all the individual investors AT: And that’s where you think
who take these things pretty literally, the opportunity is for individuals
“Well, that must be a good stock to — a multi-year perspective, right?
buy, I’ll make some money in it. Let SM: That’s exactly right. Individuals
me put that in my portfolio.” And have the unique advantage, unlike
he’s really saying, “It’s an ‘outperform’ most of Wall Street, to be able to hold
all right — it’s only going to go down a stock for, say, three to six years. If it
25 percent.” doesn’t do much or goes down one
The more obvious example, which quarter it’s not going to kill them —
happens all the time, occurs when an while that would hurt a mutual fund’s
analyst with a buy rating on a stock performance, which is getting looked
moves his rating to a “hold” or a at every quarter. Individuals should
“neutral” rating, which is a very nega- take advantage of this.
tive signal. He’s actually viewing the
prospects of the stock and the com- AT: I have to say, though, when
pany as a sell, but prefers to transmit reading your book I thought it
this signal in code to save face. might be a daunting task for an
individual investor to do the kind
AT: You mention in the book that © 2007, Ethan Pines of research you outline, and it
going down even one notch at would certainly take some time to
any time is a bad sign. But yes, when most of the Street master. There seems to be a lot of
SM: Exactly. But many individual already has a negative sell rating on a subtlety and nuance to making judg-
investors might literally decide to hold on stock, they pretty much understand the ments about these companies. Do
to that stock in this situation, thinking, stock’s not going much lower, and they you think individuals can really do
“Gee, the firm still has a ‘hold’ rating on it are very much watching and anticipating this?
— that means I should continue to hold the first analyst to upgrade it to a neutral SM: Most individuals can’t do anywhere
it.” That’s how they are misled. or a buy. If there’s anyone left to put out a near the degree [of research] that I write
But “hold” can also be a roaring, sell rating, it wouldn’t impact the stock about in the book. But I lay everything
screaming buy recommendation. Say an because it’s already completely discounted out for them so they at least have an idea
analyst has a rare sell rating on a stock and in its price. of the full scope of [what it takes] to be
he moves it up to a “hold.” That’s a posi- But a move up from a sell rating when your own securities analyst. If they can
tive move. He’s thinking the outlook is get- the bulk of the Street is already negative do a quarter or even 15 percent of what I
ting better and the stock is not going to go can have a big positive impact on the lay out for them, they’ll be way ahead of
down any more — things are improving. stock. where they are now.
That means it’s a great time to be buying And I think when they come across
the stock, because his next move — six AT: Let’s follow up on time frame. new investment prospects, if they apply
months down the road — will be to move Have mutual funds — which most some of these things I focus on — the
the hold up to a buy rating. people would probably consider the quality of the company, whether it has a
The rating systems are absurd. Street prototypical investment operations — humble management attitude, listening to
professionals know how to interpret the abandoned long-term investing? the conference calls, and especially strate-
ratings and rating changes, but outsiders SM: Oh, absolutely. Mutual funds are gies about preserving capital, picking
— individual investors — are completely caught on the quarterly performance low-P/E-multiple stocks, and investing in
C
Wyman was always trading in his spare the previous day’s low, but he doesn’t give
time, in options at first and then later his trades much leeway, noting that his
arl Wyman first discovered expanding into commodities. rule is “up or out.” He may exit a trade at
trading in 1957 when his He likens trading to medicine in that the day’s end if the stock fails to rally
middle school gave its stu- both follow a set pattern. sharply higher.
dents a brief lesson on the “There is a certain protocol you follow Wyman estimates that for every 20
stock market. if someone comes in with chest pains,” he trades, “about 12 or 13 are washes —
Soon afterwards, through an account says. “It’s the same in the markets. You small losers or small gains; a couple will
opened in his father’s name, he bought need a plan for all market conditions and see decent gains; and one will see a great
one share of Duplan for $12.25. you have to be able to implement that gain.”
“The broker picked it,” Wyman procedure.” He uses trailing stops and takes partial
remembers. “I knew nothing about it.” In 2000, Wyman retired from medicine profits along the way. For example, if the
The stock went up to $100 and split 2- and has been trading full-time since. market has rallied for seven to 10 days,
for-1, but the company eventually went he often closes out half of his positions
bankrupt, leaving Wyman with nothing Trading methodology: Wyman puts and tightens stops on other trades.
to show for his initial investment. on about 40 trades per week, trading
However, “it was an interesting game,” he individual stocks and ETFs. He may hold Most important lesson learned:
says. successful trades for a few days or even a “You can really screw yourself up if you
He continued pursuing this interest month, but he exits losers at the end of are not careful,” he says. “Anybody who
throughout his teenage years, reading var- the day. He is a trend and momentum has been in this business for a while is
ious books. The classic How I Made $2 trader and generally looks to enter trades covered with bruises and scars. It is a
Million In the Stock Market by Nicolas on pullbacks. constant battle. If you want to succeed
Darvas was significant for him. He didn’t Wyman studies daily charts and you need to get back up and figure out
have any funds to invest, but on summer searches for stocks that are moving up (or what you did wrong.”
vacations with his family, he would down) with strong momentum. He uses
always have a book of stock charts with the TC2000 software program to scan for Best trading book: Battle For
him. stocks with the largest percentage gain in Investment Survival, by Gerald Loeb.
Wyman earned a bachelor’s degree in the past six months.
chemistry, but he knew he didn’t want to “I’m always on the lookout for stocks When not trading: Wyman fishes,
spend his life in a laboratory. He also got that are up,” he says. sails, and coaches his two children’s
an MBA, focusing on the financial mar- For example, he monitors stocks that sports programs.
kets. For his master’s thesis, he developed are making new 52-week highs and
a model to predict the four-year cycles of watches them for three- to five-day Best thing about trading: “I can
the stock market. However, after business pullbacks with narrow range and light do it from my home,” Wyman says.
school, Wyman decided he wanted to do volume. He places his orders at night, “I can take a vacation whenever I want.
something more “significant” with his life after the markets are closed, entering I can do this in 20 minutes or I can sit at
and attended medical school. one tick above the previous day’s high the screen all day long. When the fishing
Wyman ultimately spent 25 years prac- in stocks that have been consolidating is good, I’m gone.”!
Legend from the close 60 days ago to today’s close. reading of 100 percent means the current read-
Vol: 30-day average daily volume, in thou- The “% Rank” fields for each time window (10- ing is larger than all the past readings, while a
sands (unless otherwise indicated). day moves, 20-day moves, etc.) show the per- reading of 0 percent means the current reading
centile rank of the most recent move to a certain is smaller than the previous readings. These fig-
OI: Open interest, in thousands (unless other-
number of the previous moves of the same size ures provide perspective for determining how
wise indicated).
and in the same direction. For example, the “% relatively large or small the most recent price
1-year move: The percentage price move from move is compared to past price moves.
Rank” for 10-day move shows how the most
the close one year ago (250 trading days) to
recent 10-day move compares to the past twen- Volatility ratio/rank: The ratio is the short-
today’s close.
ty 10-day moves; for the 20-day move, the “% term volatility (10-day standard deviation of
10-day move: The percentage price move Rank” field shows how the most recent 20-day prices) divided by the long-term volatility (100-
from the close 10 days ago to today’s close. move compares to the past sixty 20-day moves; day standard deviation of prices). The rank is
20-day move: The percentage price move for the 60-day move, the “% Rank” field shows the percentile rank of the volatility ratio over
from the close 20 days ago to today’s close. how the most recent 60-day move compares to the past 60 days.
60-day move: The percentage price move the past one-hundred-twenty 60-day moves. A
*Average volume and open interest based on highest-volume contract (December 2008).
Stocks snapshot as of Nov. 13
1-year 10-day % 20-day % 60-day % Volatility
Stock Sym Vol move move rank move rank move rank ratio/rank
Companhia Vale do Rio Doce RIO 26.03 M 166.21% -3.32% 63% 3.01% 6% 74.90% 98% .25 / 20%
Research in Motion RIMM 28.86 M 161.72% -7.14% 67% 2.23% 0% 43.22% 37% .44 / 82%
Apple Inc. AAPL 39.43 M 99.95% -9.11% 33% 0.22% 0% 39.06% 77% .59 / 100%
EMC Corp. EMC 55.17 M 55.40% -21.50% 80% -11.45% 75% 5.74% 2% 1.13 / 100%
Intel Corp. INTC 70.17 M 19.47% -0.49% 0% 2.59% 37% 8.42% 29% .69 / 100%
Microsoft MSFT 88.07 M 17.90% -3.12% 0% 13.65% 78% 21.94% 90% .61 / 80%
Exxon Mobil XOM 24.33 M 16.70% -4.67% 73% -8.30% 83% 2.78% 17% .53 / 85%
Cisco CSCO 57.66 M 13.15% -7.57% 83% -6.66% 79% 1.28% 2% 1.11 / 100%
General Electric GE 34.27 M 10.17% -3.14% 53% -3.83% 75% 2.59% 10% .72 / 93%
Oracle ORCL 36.72 M 7.04% -5.13% 57% -5.66% 67% 7.38% 44% 1.17 / 100%
Applied Materials AMAT 23.23 M 0.59% -2.92% 22% -10.74% 83% -11.13% 48% .41 / 55%
W
hile the Securities and pected market events.”
Exchange Com- The recommendations are broken
“MFA has developed
mission (SEC) and down into seven sections: fund manage-
and updated the
the U.S. Congress ment, relation with investors, determina-
have been trying to increase hedge-fund tion of fund value, risk management, reg- recommendations in
regulation for the last couple of years, the ulatory controls, relationship with coun-
hedge-fund industry took a step toward terparties, and crisis management. the belief that the most
policing itself in early November.
The Managed Funds Association Fund management effective form of industry
(MFA) expanded and updated recom- The MFA wants to ensure that a manag-
mendations it made to members in 2005 er’s goal for a fund is consistent with the oversight is self-discipline
after a government group suggested the size and nature of the fund, and that
industry needed more self-regulation. investments and risks are based on the and self-monitoring
The report, which sought input from fund’s specific objectives. Each fund
hedge-fund managers, financial execu- needs to monitor the portfolio managers
by hedge-fund managers
tives, accountants, and investors, focuses it allocates capital to, and should estab-
as part of a shared
on a few major points. lish procedures and policies that deal
Overall, the MFA wants to make sure with changes in software, data, IT, etc. responsibility with market
all fund managers are on the same page And, monitoring third parties providing
when it comes to internal policies and key business functions is critical. counterparties, investors,
practices. The report states, “MFA has
developed and updated the recommenda- Relation with investors and regulators.”
tions in the belief that the most effective Fund managers need to provide ample
form of industry oversight is self-disci- information to prospective investors
pline and self-monitoring by hedge-fund about the fund’s objectives, permissible — The Managed Funds
managers as part of a shared responsibili- investments, and risk factors. Investors Association Report
ty with market counterparties, investors, should be able to evaluate their interest in
and regulators. The recommendations the fund with this information. conflicts of interest. If so, those conflicts
should enhance the ability of hedge-fund Plus, fund managers need to consider need to be disclosed to potential
managers to manage operations, satisfy whether their actions in running the fund investors. Investors need to be notified if
responsibilities to investors, comply with (e.g., relationships with brokers and “soft- a manager makes a side deal or similar
applicable regulations, and address unex- dollar” funding) present any potential arrangement that gives some investors
Quick Scalps
The early bird gets the volume Back to arbitration
In an effort to begin trading earlier,
the New York Stock Exchange
announced it would automate the
opening of some stocks while allow-
Deleted e-mails place
ing specialists to handle more active
stocks. Larry Liebowitz, executive vice
president of the NYSE, said the
brokerage at risk
changes would make the exchange
A
more efficient. Although trading
begins at the 9:30 a.m. ET opening
bell, specialists sometimes need a
rbitration has been the mails continued into early 2005.
few minutes if they are responsible
for more than one stock. By allowing savior of some traders Additionally, some of the tapes that stored
some stocks to open electronically, who couldn’t make any the backup e-mails were re-used, erasing
specialists can concentrate on issues headway in a dispute the original content.
where there is an order imbalance.
The exchange hopes the electronic with their brokerage. The brokerage has offered payouts of
opening will persuade more traders However, evidence uncovered in a $3,000 to $5,000 for clients affected by
to send their opening orders to the high-profile lawsuit between Morgan the cover-up, but in many cases investors
NYSE during the first 30 minutes of
Stanley and one of its wealthiest cus- lost hundreds of thousands of dollars.
trading. More than 10 percent of
daily volume occurs during that time tomers could put the venerable Wall The discovery of the deleted e-mails
period. Street firm at risk for hundreds of law- has caused lawyers to prepare hundreds
suits. of new lawsuits against Morgan Stanley.
That toddlin’ exchange Morgan Stanley was sued last year by Darren Blum, an attorney in Coral
The Chicago Stock Exchange set Ron Perelman, a billionaire who made his
records for both share and trade vol-
ume in October. The exchange aver-
fortune by buying out distressed compa-
aged 40.7 million shares daily — a nies. Perelman said Morgan Stanley gave
45-percent increase over September him poor advice on two companies he “We’re not basing our
— and had a 100-percent increase was considering buying, and he lost hun-
from trade-volume records set in
August. Chicago CEO Dave Herron dreds of millions in the transactions. case on the stocks that
says the record volume is an indica- Perelman was awarded $1.45 billion in
tion that traders have recognized the the case, although Morgan won a reversal were affected. We will
attraction of the exchange’s trading
on appeal, and the case is still in legal
model, which is not dependent on
limbo. However, in its defense, Morgan
base our case on how
competing ECNs or slowed by an
order delivery process. As a result of essentially admitted it gave inaccurate
the record volumes, Chicago is
they cheated investors
information, but argued that Perelman
changing its rebate program to give
customers that provide more than 5
was too savvy to fall for it. in arbitration.”
million average daily shares a rebate The information revealed in the trial
of 36 cents per 100 shares. caused the Financial Industry Regulatory — Darren Blum, Attorney
Customers not reaching that thresh- Authority (FINRA) to investigate Morgan
old will receive 32 cents per 100
shares. Stanley, and it found the brokerage did
not provide its clients headed to arbitra- Springs, Fla., has set up a Web site —
How can they be alternative tion access to e-mails that could have www.SueMorganStanley.com — to bring
when trillions are invested in proved their cases. attention to the situation.
them? While Morgan Stanley neither admit-
Morgan initially claimed the e-mails
Alternative assets, which include
were destroyed in the terrorist attacks of ted nor denied destroying the e-mails, the
hedge funds as well as real estate
and private equity, will receive $2.5 Sept. 11, 2001, but FINRA found backup brokerage is expected to sign a waiver
continued on p. 46 files, plus evidence that the deleted e- prohibiting it from taking any action that
T
he Philadelphia Stock Exchange (PHLX), which has marketed itself as a
would have it directly or indirectly deny potential takeover target for several months, finally got its wish in early
November.
the findings of the FINRA investigation.
The Nasdaq bought PHLX for $652 million in an all-cash deal that will give
Under securities law, the new lawsuits
the Nasdaq instant recognition in the options business. The Nasdaq had
will be settled in arbitration, and Blum
planned to begin its own options market in late 2007, but ownership of the
believes winning the case won’t be much
PHLX gives it an established exchange that has accounted for about 14 percent
more difficult than showing up and pre- of U.S. options volume through the first 10 months of 2007.
senting the settlement. “After an in-depth review of alternatives, we believe that combining with
“We’re not basing our case on the Nasdaq is the best outcome for our customers, shareholders, and the trading
stocks that were affected,” Blum says. community as a whole,” says Sandy Frucher, chairman and CEO of the PHLX.
“We will base our case on how they “No other exchange is better positioned for the future based on technology,
cheated investors in arbitration.” products, and overall passion for continuously redefining the definition and
However, not everybody agrees. value of stock exchanges around the world.”
Chicago-based securities lawyer Dan The board of directors of both exchanges have already approved the deal,
Schramm says investors will have to which is expected to close in the first quarter of 2008, subject to regulatory
approval.
prove their case was damaged by the
The Nasdaq will keep the PHLX’s current structure, which includes a hybrid
missing evidence, and most won’t be
trading platform for options. When the Nasdaq’s options exchange begins oper-
able to.
ations in December, the Nasdaq will be the only one of the six U.S. options
“Not having this information and los-
markets to offer customers a market-maker driven model and a price-time order
ing in arbitration does not automatically book model.
equal fraud,” he says. “Philadelphia has successfully offered floor and electronic trading for some
Additionally, Schramm says, it’s time. We think this capability will continue to be the best approach to serving
possible the deleted e-mails could have options traders as the options market continues to evolve,” says Chris
helped Morgan Stanley’s position, a Concannon, the Nasdaq’s executive vice president of transaction services. “In
defense the brokerage is likely to bring addition to firmly establishing the Nasdaq’s presence in the options market, this
up. acquisition also enhances our organic growth strategy, which will come to
However, the fact that evidence was fruition next month when we launch our price-time priority options platform.”
destroyed will cause the arbitration panel The deal will also give the Nasdaq control of the PHLX’s little-used stock
exchange, as well as a futures business run by the Philadelphia Board of Trade
to question Morgan’s motives, and may
and the Stock Clearing Corporation of Philadelphia.
allow them to overlook the fact that
The deal was made possible only after the PHLX officially settled a class
nothing directly related to the case may
action suit in October.
have been found in the e-mail.
The lawsuit, brought by PHLX shareholder Chuck Ginsburg, was settled in
FINRA would not offer specifics on principle in June but was officially resolved in the Delaware Chancery Court in
the case, but there is some question as to October. Ginsburg challenged PHLX’s 2005 decision to sell 90 percent of the
how valuable the settlement between exchange to six large brokers and Wall Street firms, leaving the original mem-
FINRA and Morgan will be. To win an bers with 10 percent. Ginsburg contended the sale severely — and illegally —
arbitration hearing the second time diluted original shareholders’ stakes.
around, investors would still have to “This is a very exciting time for the exchange and we are delighted that the
prove fraud, and nowhere in the agree- Delaware court has approved settlement of the litigation which has created
ment does Morgan Stanley admit its uncertainty at the exchange for the last 16 months,” Frucher said in a state-
actions were fraudulent, nor does FINRA ment. “This is a good result for the exchange and all of its constituents.”!
BATS eyes
continued from p. 44
trillion by the year 2011 from investors
B
lion. The report says these assets will be
inexpensive to trade, leading to their
ATS Trading, the upstart viable, competitive, and long-term alter-
appeal, and about one-third of the money
will be invested in swap contracts or other Electronic Communications native to the two incumbent exchanges.”
exchange-listed products that mimic the Network (ECN) that has In October, BATS announced it was
underlying investment. become the No. 3 trading looking into the possibility of launching
venue by volume in less than two years, in Europe a system similar to what it has
Coming up short is trying to increase its presence in the in the U.S.
New York-based Sandell Asset
Management agreed to an $8.2-million U.S. while establishing one in Europe. “We are in the early stages of evaluat-
settlement after the Securities and In early November, BATS filed with the ing setting up an operation in Europe and
Exchange Commission (SEC) found the Securities and Exchange Commission have been approached by a number of
firm illegally sold short the shares of a
(SEC) to become a full-fledged exchange. companies in the past year,” says Randy
New Orleans bank in the wake of
Hurricane Katrina. The SEC said that in “Our motivation to become an Williams, a vice president at BATS.
an effort to offset losses in a long posi- exchange stems from our desire to partic- Beginning in November, European
tion in Hibernia Bank, Sandell shorted ipate directly in the national market sys- markets began trading on the MIFID
shares it did not own, a technique
tem,” says Joe Ratterman, BATS CEO. (markets in financial instruments direc-
known as naked shorting. The firm
gave back the $6.7 million it made from “The BATS organization, and more tive) platform, a system created by the
the trades, plus interest and a importantly our subscribers, will benefit European Union. MIFID is expected to
$650,000 fine. The firm’s founder, in many ways from BATS being directly increase average daily volume at
Thomas E. Sandell, agreed to a
$100,000 fine, and two employees connected to the industry plans. We also European stock markets, and BATS is
were fined $90,000. Sandell and its desire to be on the same regulatory play- hoping to take advantage of that.
employees neither admitted nor denied ing field as our primary competitors — Project Turquoise, a trading platform
any wrongdoing.
Nasdaq and the New York Stock funded and run by seven large European
Exchange.” investment banks, has been in the works
Jury finds Merrill Lynch
full of bull Becoming an exchange would give since last November, but technical prob-
Merrill Lynch was ordered by a Florida BATS an opportunity to list its own lems have delayed its launch, and BATS
jury to pay $6 million to the daughters quotes. Right now, it lists quotes on the could be the beneficiary if it establishes a
of a philanthropist. George Rothman National Stock Exchange and the presence soon enough.
and his wife had $32 million in assets in
International Securities Exchange. MIFID eliminates old rules that
a Merrill Lynch account, but both were
declared mentally incompetent in 1999. Additionally, BATS would gain extra required market participants to use
A jury agreed with the Rothman daugh- revenue by sharing in tape revenue. national exchanges for trading and
ters that Merrill Lynch took advantage of “In terms of the critical metric of reporting, thus opening the door for
the situation by transferring the
Rothmans’ money into investments that matched market share, BATS has clearly alternative systems. NYSE Euronext has
paid higher commissions. George established itself as the third largest mar- already struck a deal with two banks to
Rothman died in 2004. His lawyers say ket center in the U.S.,” Ratterman says. help in trading large orders, while
Merrill Lynch made at least $2.5 million
“Taking the necessary steps to operate our Citigroup and Instinet also have plat-
in fees on investments the Rothmans
knew nothing about. In a statement, market as a registered securities exchange forms in place.
Merrill said, “The verdict is astonishing in is the right thing to do and shows the BATS made its mark in the U.S. by
light of the undisputed fact that the maturity and credibility that BATS brings slashing fees and providing a cheaper
Rothmans, who were wealthy, sophisti-
to participating in the national market alternative to the big two exchanges. It
cated investors, made $10 million on
the annuities at issue, and did not lose system. routinely trades 15 percent of daily
money.” “We want to provide our customers a Nasdaq volume.!
M
ore than two years bankruptcy in the wake of an accounting ed by creditors of Refco, continued its
after Refco, one of the scandal, the attempts to cash in on the litigious ways in October by filing a law-
world’s largest futures situation continue. suit against former Refco insiders seeking
brokerages, declared Refco Litigation Trusts, a group creat- more than $400 million in remuneration.
The “insiders” include former CEO
Phillip Bennett as well as other
Managed futures performance: owners, officers, and directors of
Barclay Trading Group’s September 2007 rankings
Refco. The suit claims the insiders
Top 10 traders ranked by September 2007 return
managing more than $10 million as of 9/30/07.
participated in a massive scheme to
Trading advisor September 2007 YTD $ Under remove assets from Refco, using
return (%) return (%) mgmt. fraudulent transfers within fraudu-
1. Dighton World Wide Inv. (Aggressive) 61.11 38.83 31.5M lent transactions.
2. Dighton World Wide Inv. (SFT 2X) 36.82 37.42 80.1M The Trusts filed a separate lawsuit
3. Clarke Cap'l Mgmt. (Worldwide) 30.57 39.48 17.4M against Thomas Hackl, an executive
4. Fort Orange Capital Mgmt (Gl. Strat.) 30.50 -1.48 12.7M vice president at Refco, for more
5. AIS Futures Management (3X-6X) 28.21 42.71 178.1M
than $5 million. The Trusts contend
Hackl was an active participant in
6. Quality Capital Mgmt. (Gl. Nat. Res) 27.14 2.06 12.0M
the fraud, which led to him earning
7. Quality Capital Mgmt. (Comm. Beta) 26.68 8.67 13.0M
$5 million.
8. Tactical Invest. Mgmt. (Institutional) 26.59 9.78 34.3M
“The lawsuits filed today are in
9. Hawksbill Capital Mgmt. (Gl. Divers.) 25.30 24.88 36.7M
addition to five other lawsuits filed
10. Clarke Cap'l Mgmt. (Gl. Magnum) 24.46 19.19 23.0M by the Trusts and customers of
Top 10 traders ranked by September 2007 return Refco Capital Markets seeking in the
managing less than $10 million as of 9/30/07.
aggregate more than $2 billion dol-
1. Galleon Strategic Mgmt (FX Cannon) 71.59 47.21 1.8M
lars in damages to Refco and its
2. District Capital Mgmt. (Divers.) 41.47 12.88 2.8M
creditors as a direct result of the
3. James H. Jones (Diversified) 37.50 22.56 0.8M
massive fraudulent scheme perpe-
4. Optimus Cap'l Mgmt. (Diversified) 31.68 61.65 0.1M trated for more than eight years by
5. Barbashop LLC 31.66 95.25 4.5M Mr. Bennett, with the aid and assis-
6. Visioneering R. & D. Co. (V-100) 28.52 0.72 1.0M tance of numerous insiders and
7. James River Navigator Fund LLC (3X) 27.09 -11.22 3.8M third parties,” says Marc Kirschner,
8. District Capital Mgmt. (Select) 25.68 3.84 0.2M a lawyer who represents the Trusts.
9. Abundance Fund, LLC 24.07 -14.97 0.7M In the days leading up to the suit
10. TSW Capital Mgmt (Diamond II LP) 20.70 10.71 0.5M of Bennett and other insiders, the
Trusts also brought more than 180
Based on estimates of the composite of all accounts or the fully funded subset method.
Does not reflect the performance of any single account. suits against non-insiders they claim
PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE. benefited from preferential and ille-
Source: Barclay Hedge (www.barclayhedge.com) gal transfers. Those suits seek more
than $33 million collectively.!
W
hen the stock market Some of that drawdown was caused by Stock Exchange established trading
crashed on Black program trades, many of which were “curbs,” which would prevent certain
Monday in 1987, designed to take advantage of arbitrage computer-generated trades from being
the Dow Jones opportunities in S&P 500 stocks. In the made if the NYSE composite index rose
dropped almost 23 percent. aftermath of the crash, the New York continued on p. 49
Exchanges/trading firms
Nasdaq Stock Market NDAQ NASD 48.81 8.31 20.52% 48.39 26.57 3.01M $5.56B
Intercontinental Exchange ICE NYSE 178.34 20.58 13.05% 179.4 81.57 1.89M $12.4B
NYSE Euronext NYX NYSE 90.4 8.85 10.85% 112 64.26 7.19M $23.8B
CME Group CME NYSE 669.1 39.95 6.35% 693 491 676,000 $35.5B
Interactive Brokers IBKR NASD 28.99 1.39 5.04% 34.25 21.00 817,000 $1.17B
International Securities Exchange ISE NYSE 67.09 0.26 0.39% 68.3 39.65 302,000 $2.60B
New York Mercantile Exchange NMX NYSE 134.13 -1.29 -0.95% 152 105 1.17M $12.5B
Nyfix NYFX Pink Sheets 4.35 -0.15 -3.33% 7.5 4.05 56,300 $159M
Penson Worldwide PNSN NASD 16.49 -2.92 -15.04% 34.91 15.44 207,000 $442M
Market makers/specialists
Vander Moolen VDM NYSE 5.14 0.4 8.44% 6.23 4.37 43,900 $234M
Knight Capital Group NITE NASD 13.15 0.54 4.28% 21.78 11.5 1.69M $1.31B
LaBranche LAB NYSE 5.54 -0.13 -2.29% 12.21 4.28 752,000 $341M
Miscellaneous
eSpeed ESPD NASD 10.21 0.93 10.02% 11.28 7.02 142,000 $372M
Interactive Data Corporation IDC NYSE 31.8 1.8 6.00% 32.51 21.73 257,000 $3.0B
MarketAxess MKTX NASD 15.64 -0.7 -4.28% 19.87 11.95 202,000 $483M
Value Line VALU NASD 41.76 -7.99 -16.06% 58.89 40.52 6,350 $417M
*over last three months
B
Curbs have been implemented 18 IDS Trading, an alternative trading system developed by a consor-
times in 2007, but in its filing with the tium of big banks and financial firms, has made its name in the
Securities and Exchange Commission, the marketplace by providing an anonymous venue for trading large
Big Board said the curbs have little impact blocks of shares (more than 10,000).
on volatility. BIDS has been a popular choice for block traders looking for a counter-
“Volatility is neither restrained nor party to make a large trade without giving away their intentions in the
enhanced by the imposition of the col- market. The platform traded more than 1 billion shares (double counted)
lars,” the filing said. “The exchange is in less than 125 trading days.
making this change since it does not Because of BIDS’ success, NYSE Euronext wants in on the fun. In late
appear that the approach of market October, the two groups hooked up in an effort to improve execution
volatility envisioned by the use of these quality and availability of liquidity for NYSE firms trading large blocks.
collars is as meaningful today as when the Both BIDS and NYSE Euronext will have a 50-percent stake in the ven-
rule was formalized in the late 1980s.” ture, which must still gain regulatory approval.
The increase in electronic trading has “We believe this approach with BIDS Holdings will serve our clients and
reduced the impact index arbitrage trades markets well by bringing block-size orders back into contact with active
have on the market. The latest data avail- traders, algorithms, and retail flow,” says Duncan Niederauer, president
able from the NYSE indicates less than 5 and co-COO of NYSE Euronext.
percent of total volume is done through BIDS’ platform allows traders to control how much information about a
those types of trades. trade they want disclosed. They can auto-execute their order or choose to
On Black Monday, program trades negotiate for a better price, they can set a minimum block size, and they
accounted for a little more than 12 per- can choose not to trade with certain parties based on past behavior.
cent of volume, although index arbitrage “We expect that the joint venture will address the current inefficiencies
trades were responsible for only about 3.2 in block trading, such as market fragmentation,” BIDS CEO Tim Mahoney
percent of trading. says. “Moreover, this initiative is an endorsement of our efforts to build the
Even with the curbs eliminated, bro- leading block interest discovery and trading system in the U.S.”
kerages would still have to report any
program trades, which the NYSE has clas-
sified as a basket of at least 15 stocks with
a value of at least $1 million.!
Canada’s September jobless rate " The Central Bank of the Philippines dropped its overnight
dropped 0.1 percent from the previous borrowing rate 0.25 percent in October to 5.75 percent. The
month to 5.9 percent, the first time drop comes three months after a huge 1.5-percent reduction,
since November 1974 that Canadian which was the first move in the rate since October 2005.
unemployment was less than 6 per-
THIRD-QUARTER GDP
GROWTH STRENGTHENS
Report: Gross domestic product for Q3 2007
(advance estimate)
Date and time: Oct. 31 at 8:30 a.m.
Actual: 3.9 percent
Previous: 3.8 percent
Consensus: 3.1 percent
Average
S&P 500 historical moves FIGURE 3: OVERALL VS. CORE INFLATION Annual gains in the CPI and PPI both spiked at
GDP reaction since 1994 least 0.8 percent in September after falling in August. Core CPI and PPI levels were
essentially unchanged.
Report day 1.20% -0.01%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Not seasonally adjusted
Five days later 0.70% 0.46%
M
What it is: Chart analysis program with
back-testing features.
ultiCharts 2.1 is an analysis platform with a
flexible programming language that lets you Who it’s for: Stock, futures, and currency traders.
develop custom technical indicators and strate- Skill level: Intermediate to advanced.
gies, test and optimize trading strategies, and Web site: www.tssupport.com
evaluate performance statistics from several perspectives.
At first glance, MultiCharts resembles TradeStation — both Company: TS Support Plus
platforms’ charts and programming languages appear identical. 15 East North Street
Even the name of MultiCharts’ developer — TS Support — Dover, DE 1990
evokes a connection between both products, although none Tel: (888) 817-6385
exists.
E-mail: support@tssupport.com
MultiCharts 2.1 has several unique features. For instance,
it integrates financial data from multiple sources, its charts are Price: 30-day free trial. One-time fee of
intuitive and fun to use, and its strategy-performance reports are $899 or $499 per year. See Web site
detailed and easy to interpret. Also, all indicators, conditional for other pricing options.
studies, and strategies are code-based, which means you can Upside: Object-oriented charts are easy to
quickly change settings or create new trade systems from modify. Programming language is
scratch. compatible with TradeStation’s Easy
The program isn’t perfect. Its help manual is sparse and was Language. Backtesting and
written by Russian software engineers, it lacks a quote window, optimization tools are robust.
and it hogs system resources even though TS Support improved Performance reports are detailed and
performance in version 2.1. But overall, MultiCharts is a reason- easy to navigate. Clever integration
able alternative to other chart-analysis packages that offer similar of multiple data sources.
tools and cost twice as much. But you will need a powerful PC
Downside: No quote window. Help manual lacks
and a tolerance for a few minor bugs.
some details and has been roughly
translated into English. A couple of
Managing data bugs and occasional slow performance.
MultiCharts handles real-time and end-of-day data feeds from
15 different vendors such as Bloomberg, Interactive Brokers, Recommended Windows 2000 or XP,
Patsystems, and opentick — a relatively new source that pro- system 1.2 GHz Pentium 4 or compatible,
vides free and discounted real-time financial data from dozens requirements: 17” or larger dual monitors with
of exchanges. (For a review of opentick, see “Related reading,” 1024x768 resolution, 512 MB RAM
p. 57.) and 1 GB hard drive space, broadband
Few programs use as many real-time data providers or inte- Internet connection, and MS Internet
grate them as effectively as MultiCharts. It can plot the same Explorer 6.0.
stock, futures contract, or currency pair from multiple sources Tested on a 2.66 GHz Pentium 4 with 512 MB RAM
in a chart with different time intervals. If, for example, you were and T1 Internet connection.
tracking Dominion Resources (D), you could plot hourly bars
from Patsystems and five-minute bars from eSignal in a single
chart. You must insert a symbol to MultiChart’s database each time you
Figure 1 shows the QuoteManager and a partial list of data plot a new instrument — an added step.
sources (upper and lower windows, respectively). The You can also import and export price data in ASCII format,
QuoteManager groups all symbols by type and exchange and which is convenient if you analyze prices in Excel. Exporting
lets you customize session times (i.e., electronic vs. pit). We data into a text file was fairly easy, but we had trouble finding
used eSignal’s real-time data feed and had one minor complaint: files after MultiCharts imported them. Clearly we missed a step,
Charting
Charting is one of the program’s strengths. You can plot
any instrument in any time interval, from ticks and sec-
onds to minutes, hours, days, and so on. For instance,
you can plot 15-tick bars in one chart and seven-minute
bars in another.
Figure 2 shows four charts that contain different sym-
bols in various time intervals. The charts include techni-
cal indicators and strategies that appear on the symbols
or below them.
The platform organizes its charts in standard, yet effi-
cient ways. You can add dozens of charts, customize their
appearance (colors, types, time frame, etc.), and then
save multiple charts as a workspace, which resembles an
individual sheet within an Excel file. Figure 2 shows a
four-chart workspace, but you can create additional ones
and change workspaces with one click. Also, you can
link charts together so that they update when you switch
symbols.
Charts contain innovative features that few other prod-
ucts offer. For example, Figure 2’s Mini Dow chart (upper
left) plots price bars of 1,000 contracts each, instead of
FIGURE 1: MANAGING DATA MultiCharts can manage about 15 data as a function of time. And charts can plot price in certain
feeds, including Bloomberg, Patsystems, and opentick. point intervals (i.e., 10-, 25-, and 100-point bars).
Source: MultiCharts Moreover, Figure 1’s euro futures chart (lower left) shows
hourly bars with 10-minute bars
below them — a setup we haven’t
seen before.
You can access all of
MultiCharts’ important tools
within its point-and-click charts.
It’s easy to add indicators, condi-
tional studies, and strategy signals
to a chart. You can even trade via
Interactive Brokers from this
window. Figure 2’s Mini Dow
chart includes signals from a long
stochastic strategy, and the euro
futures chart (lower left) shows
signals from a strategy that buys
or sells the euro at certain times
of the day.
Figure 2’s five-minute chart of
the Russell 1000 index exchange-
traded fund (IWB; upper right)
includes three conditional stud-
ies: price above its 14-bar aver-
FIGURE 2: CHARTS Chart windows are quite versatile, so you can plot price and volume age, price below that average,
data in countless ways. You can also apply any type of indicator, conditional study, or
and breakouts above 20-bar
strategy to charts.
highs (dark and light blue bars,
Source: MultiCharts
continued on p. 56
Programming language
MultiCharts’ key features are
based on its programming lan-
guage, which closely resembles
TradeStation’s EasyLanguage. This
means you can import any indica-
tor, conditional study, or strategy
code directly from TradeStation
— one of MultiCharts’ selling
points.
MultiCharts claims its code is
95-percent compatible with
TradeStation’s EasyLanguage, but
how it differs is unclear; the help
manual doesn’t describe the intri-
cacies of its code. Instead, the
manual posts links to tutorials on
TradeStation’s Web site.
However, we imported several
TradeStation strategies without
any problems. Figure 3 shows
MultiCharts’ PowerLanguage (PL)
Editor with the code behind the
euro time-zone strategy from
Figure 2 (lower left).
FIGURE 4: PERFORMANCE REPORTS These detailed reports simplify strategy evaluation You don’t have to write code to
and let you break down test statistics in three main categories: equity curve and modify parameters for an indica-
drawdown, individual trades, and different time periods.
tor, study, or signal, but program-
Source: MultiCharts
mers can access this editor from
any chart and revise these formu-
and yellow dots, respectively). las or create new ones. And as you write code, MultiCharts sug-
Like most of its peers, MultiCharts also lets you modify gests different functions that could be appropriate.
charts by selecting the amount of data to plot, resizing the
CQG has released version 7.5, which includes Pre-Trade reporting, and custom AccuCharts. For more information, visit
Analytics, a suite of four new studies — the DOMTracker, www.fxsol.com.
DOMTracker Oscillator, DOMActivity, and Older Orders Ratio.
These studies track activities in the order book away from the PowerShares Capital Management has expanded its family of
inside market. The new Order Ticker uses a numeric display fixed-income ETFs by listing a 1 to 30-year laddered treasury
fashioned after the classic stock ticker to display actions at the portfolio, as well as insured New York and California municipal
inside market and in the order book. In addition, CQG now bond portfolios, on the American Stock Exchange. The antici-
offers Quantity Triggered Stop Orders, which are sent once the pated ticker symbols and ETF names are: PowerShares 1-30
resting amount of orders in the order queue drops below the Laddered Treasury Portfolio (PLW), PowerShares Insured
trader set threshold. Other enhancements include scanning port- California Municipal Bond Portfolio (PWZ), and PowerShares
folios of spreads for pre-set conditions, simultaneous chart Insured New York Municipal Bond Portfolio (PWZ). For more
scrolling linked to news headlines, instant messaging with other information, visit www.powershares.com.
CQG traders, and live chat with CQG customer support.
Also, CQG has added the Singapore Exchange (SGX) to its MarketDelta has introduced a new indicator called the TPD
direct trading connections. CQG has connected its hosted trad- Index, the first of its kind to take Market Profile concepts and
ing gateways to SGX, giving customers the ability to trade logic and apply them systematically. Named after Dr. Thomas P.
exchange contracts. SGX has been added to CQG’s list of trad- Drinka, a professor who has researched Market Profile for close
able exchanges, which includes CME/CBOT, Eurex, Montreal, to 20 years, the TPD Index has a pane that shows the 20-day
Euronext, NYBOT, ICE, DME, NYMEX/COMEX, and SFE. success rate for the indicator. The TPD Index provides a maxi-
Finally, CQG and Strategy Runner have announced the inte- mum of one trading signal each day. It can be used with intra-
gration of their trading platforms. Strategy Runner’s connection day time frames as well, but all the research was done using
with the CQG API will allow their FCM partners to utilize daily and 30-minute data. TPD Index is currently being offered
CQG’s data and order routing services. In turn, CQG customers for a one-time fee of $997. Visit www.marketdelta.com/newsite/
will have access to Strategy Runner services and algorithmic tpdi.aspx for more information and ordering instructions.
trading solutions using Strategy Runner’s robust server-based
technology. For more information, visit www.cqg.com. ICE Futures, the leading soft commodity exchange and a sub-
sidiary of IntercontinentalExchange, is now offering foreign
Market Probability is now offering SectorCheck, a free trading exchange futures electronically on the ICE trading platform.
tool that reports current status and trend information for stock Listing of the foreign exchange futures contracts will occur in
sectors and industries. Its features include instantaneous display phases. In the initial phase, the following futures contracts will
of the one-day return in each sector, averaged over all member be offered electronically 22 hours a day on the ICE platform:
stocks in the sector. A similar report is available for each indus- British pound/Japanese yen (GBP/JPY), British pound/Swiss franc
try. The tool further reports performance rankings of all sectors (GBP/CHF), British pound/U.S. dollar (GBP/USD), euro/British
and industries so users can easily judge where trading and price pound (EUR/GBP), euro/Japanese yen (EUR/JPY), euro/Swiss
movement are most concentrated. With one click, the user can franc (EUR/CHF), euro/U.S. dollar (EUR/USD), Swiss
call up a bar chart that displays the performance in any sector or franc/Japanese yen (CHF/JPY), U.S. dollar/Japanese yen
industry over the previous 30 days. The tool is available to the (USD/JPY), and U.S. dollar/Swiss franc (USD/CHF). These for-
public through the company’s Web site, www.marketprobabili- eign exchange contracts will begin electronic trading on the ICE
ty.com. platform at 8 p.m. ET on Thursday, Nov. 8, for trade date Nov.
9. For more information, please visit www.theice.com.!
FX Solutions has introduced GTS Pro, a forex trading platform
designed to meet the needs of today’s currency traders. GTS Pro Trading Resources is a forum for industry businesses to announce
new products and upgrades. Listings are adapted from company
offers forex traders a wide range of tools including an improved
press releases and are not endorsements or recommendations from
forex calculator for margin, pip, and premium calculations, 10 the Active Trader Magazine Group. E-mail press releases to
trading screen layouts, customizable workspaces, price alarms editorial@activetradermag.com. Publication is not guaranteed.
for any currency pair when a certain price is reached, exportable
S M T W T F S 16 • December CPI
30 31 1 2 3 4 5 • December production and capacity utilization
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 • LTD: February crude oil options (NYMEX)
13 14 15 16 17 18 19
20 21 22 23 24 25 26
17 • January Philadelphia Fed survey
• December housing starts
27 28 29 30 31 1 2
21 • Markets closed — Martin Luther King Jr. Day Personal income 8:30 a.m.
Business inventories 8:30 a.m.
22 • LTD: February crude oil futures (NYMEX) Durable goods 8:30 a.m.
• December Chicago Fed national activity index Retail sales 8:30 a.m.
Trade balance 8:30 a.m.
23 Housing starts 8:30 a.m.
24 Production
& capacity utilization 9:15 a.m.
Note: For expiration dates of additional commodity futures and options, as well as first
notice and first delivery dates, see the calendar in Futures & Options Trader magazine The information on this page is subject to
(www.futuresandoptionstrader.com). As of press time, release dates were not available change. Active Trader is not responsible
for leading indicators, and existing home sales. for the accuracy of calendar dates beyond
Check www.activetradermag.com/calendar.htm for updated information. press time.
MetaStock
Event: Traders Expo New York
www.metastock.com/at127
Date: Feb. 16-19
Location: Marriott Marquis Hotel, New York PFGBEST.com
For more information: www.tradersexpo.com www.pfgbest.com
ProShares
Event: 24th Annual Risk Management Conference
Date: March 9-11 www.proshares.com
Location: Hyatt Regency Coconut Point Resort and Spa, Terra Nova
Bonita Springs, Fla. www.TerraNovaTrading.com/AT
For more information: www.cboe.com/rmc
Traders Expo
Event: Day Trading Seminar Presented by Joe Ross www.tradersexpo.com
and Rogerio Kirchbaum
TradeStation
Date: March 23-24
www.tradestation.com/9573
Location: Sao Paulo, Brazil
For more information: E-mail info@tradingeducators.com.br Trade The News
www.TradeTheNews.com
Event: Traders Expo Los Angeles
Date: June 23-26 Wealth Lab
Location: Ontario Convention Center www.wealth-lab.com
For more information: www.tradersexpo.com
Xview
www.xview.com
TRADE
Date: Tuesday, Oct. 30, 2007.
Trade Summary
Initial Initial
Date Stock Entry stop target IRR Exit Date P/L LOP LOL Length
10/30/07 EWZ 83.87 79.77 88.89 1.22 81.99 11/7/07 -1.88 (2.3%) 2.93 3.33 6 days
Legend — IRR: initial reward/risk ratio (initial target amount/initial stop amount). LOP: largest open profit (maximum available profit during
lifetime of trade). LOL: largest open loss (maximum potential loss during life of trade).
TRADE
Date: Thursday, Oct. 25, 2007.
Initial stop: 34.39. However, the stop will be lowered to just portfolio it was supposed to be protecting. Oct. 30 was pretty
below breakeven as soon as the trade is more than 0.50 in the much the final straw: The broader market — and the portfolio
money. — lost ground while SMH made a higher high, higher low, and
higher close.
Initial target: 32.10, which is a little above SMH’s 2007 low and Losing money on both the short and long sides prompted us
the bottom of the October 2006-April 2007 trading range (not
to cover the position early on Oct. 31 — which turned out to be
shown).
the high before stocks went on another slide. Thus, we closed
out a hedge — unprofitably — just when it would have been
useful.
RESULT The hedge was arguably put on too early, but the timing was
based on the market as a whole having rebounded after the Oct.
Exit: 34.24. 22 low while SMH had continued to decline. Perhaps the fact
the SMH was so much weaker than the rest of the market lead-
Profit/loss: -0.54 (1.6 percent). ing up to the trade should have been a signal that it might
bounce back? !
Trade executed according to plan? Yes.
Note: Initial targets for trades are typically based on things such as the histor-
Outcome: It might take some additional time to determine if this ical performance of a price pattern or trading system signal. However, indi-
was: 1) a bad idea, 2) a poorly executed idea, or 3) the wrong vidual trades are a function of immediate market behavior; initial price tar-
instrument at the wrong time. gets are flexible and are most often used as points at which a portion of the
SMH not only failed to continue to exhibit relative weakness, trade is liquidated to reduce the position’s open risk. As a result, the initial
over the course of the trade, it actually was stronger than the (pre-trade) reward-risk ratios are conjectural by nature.
Trade Summary
Initial Initial
Date Stock Entry stop target IRR Exit Date P/L LOP LOL Length
10/25/07 SMH 33.7 34.39 32.1 2.32 34.24 10/31/07 -0.54 (1.6%) 0.33 1.00 4 days
Legend — IRR: initial reward/risk ratio (initial target amount/initial stop amount). LOP: largest open profit (maximum available profit during
lifetime of trade). LOL: largest open loss (maximum potential loss during life of trade).