Reliability Prediction Guideline:

Electrical Systems Reliability

Reliability Prediction Guideline:

Electrical Systems Reliability
 Reliability Prediction Guideline:
Electrical Systems Reliability

Preface

The purpose of this Guideline is to briefly review the concept

of reliability prediction as it might apply to machinery and
electrical systems. Doing reliability prediction has historically
been hampered by costly, hard to use tools. Recent advances
in computing speed and software development have made the
computing tools less hard to use. More reliability, availability
and maintainability information is now needed to begin doing
reliability prediction. We think this will lead to projects and
decision-makers having more quantitative reliability
information available for design development and decision-
making processes.

The goal of this guideline is two fold: first, to show that there
are data and tools available to use to try to predict reliability of
systems and designs; and second, help cause (wider)
utilization of reliability prediction techniques early in project
development (especially in early phases of CPDEP) so
projects might better meet their financial and operating goals.
A third goal is to announce that we want to obtain reliability,
availability and maintainability (RAM) information from any part
of Chevron that might have such information available. We
want to develop a RAM database and ultimately want to be
able to use Chevron-based data in reliability prediction
projects.

Please send comments, advice or criticisms to this guideline to

anyone in the CRTC Machinery and Electrical Systems Team,
in particular, M. C. Fousha, Chevron Research and
Technology Company, (510) 242-2622, or to
mcfo@chevron.com. See Fine Print Note below.

Fine Print Note: The CRTC Machinery and Electrical Systems Team (M&ES) is interested in
spearheading and doing reliability prediction for machinery and electrical system designs. The group
has various tools for doing machinery and power system reliability evaluations. If you are interested in
reliability prediction for development of designs or system upgrades, please contact anyone within the
M&ES team for further discussion and information.

December 2000
 Reliability Prediction Guideline:
Electrical Systems Reliability

TABLE OF CONTENTS

PREFACE ..........................................................................................................................2

OVERVIEW........................................................................................................................4

POTENTIAL INTEGRATION .............................................................................................4

DATA AVAILABILITY AND REQUIREMENTS .................................................................5

RELIABILITY PREDICTION METHODS ...........................................................................6

EXAMPLE..........................................................................................................................7

APPENDIX 1....................................................................................................................16
DATABASES: ...................................................................................................................16
REFERENCES:.................................................................................................................16
COMPUTER TOOLS: .........................................................................................................17

December 2000
 Reliability Prediction Guideline:
Electrical Systems Reliability

Overview
Reliability modeling (either assessment or prediction) is not a new way to evaluate project
designs and decisions, but it is an emerging way. Until recently, the methods and tools
that could be used for reliability evaluations have been extremely complex, too academic
(highly mathematical) or generally too costly to have wide, practical application. This,
together with the large amount of information that is needed to do a successful and useful
reliability study amounted to there being no economic advantage to doing reliability
analysis. Increases in personal computing power and simplification of tools have begun
to overcome the complexity of evaluations and will begin to allow reliability to be used
more readily in design and decision-making processes.

Chevrons work in the general area of reliability has been on multiple fronts. Foremost
have been a variety of efforts in maintenance and operations to monitor and evaluate the
condition or performance of equipment using reliability based techniques. This began
with the former IMI database and continues with work now to implement Computerized
Maintenance Management Systems (CMMS) such as Meridium, MP2, etc. Utilizing
Computerized Maintenance Management Systems has generally caused better
application of Preventative Maintenance (PM) techniques. CMM-type systems also
support more advanced maintenance techniques such as Predictive Maintenance (PdM),
Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) and Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) which may be
used more in the future.

Other work in the reliability area is going on in Upstream projects to evaluate the reliability
of various designs and project concepts (See Implementation GuideReliability
Modeling, Implementation Guide No. 17, March 1999, Neil Henry et. Al.). One area
where reliability modeling should be very useful is with subsea and deep water systems.
Because initial installation and later intervention is so costly, reliability modeling
techniques (in this case reliability prediction) could be used to help evaluate designs and
alternatives. Work toward the goal of doing reliability prediction in subsea and deepwater
is going on through Joint Industry Programs such as OREDA and MoBPTeCh. The
Subsea Power Electrical Equipment Demonstrator (SPEED) Project may also incorporate
reliability modeling techniques into its program.

Potential Integration
Chevrons efforts in reliability as mentioned above have centered on maintenance and
operations activities. Except for a few instances where reliability modeling has been used
in alternative and design development, reliability has been devoted to the near-term
resolution of equipment problems. The CRTC M&ES groups interest is in applying
reliability modeling and reliability prediction to the early stages of the CPDEP process so
that quantitative judgements can be made of electrical power system designs and

December 2000
 Reliability Prediction Guideline:
Electrical Systems Reliability

concepts. All systems however, not just electrical power systems, must meet the overall
availability requirements of a project.

Figure 2 shows the CPDEP Phases and shows where reliability analysis may be used
within Chevron.

In CPDEP Phases 1 and 2, reliability modeling and prediction is used to help evaluate
systems, combinations of systems, logistic and transportation issues, and large or costly
equipment sparing. Until such time as Chevron-based data becomes available, the data
for these analyses would need to come from published reports, databases and libraries.
Not having Chevron-based information now should not keep reliability prediction and
reliability analysis techniques from being used.

In CPDEP Phase 3, reliability modeling and prediction could be used in a more detailed
wayaimed more at the component, subsystem, or assembly level. Reliability modeling
could be used to evaluate one supplier of an assembly to another, to evaluate sparing a
particular component or not and to compare types of materials that might be used.
Further, contracts and purchase orders could be structured in a way that incorporates
reliability performance. In the future, information gathered from the CMM systems within
Chevron could be readily used along with library or database information to do the
modeling.

In CPDEP Phase 4 and 5, reliability is devoted more toward failure monitoring, reliability
improvements or reliability management processes. Gathered failure information is used
to improve repair materials, improve repair procedures and evaluate suppliers.

The CRTC M&ES group is interested in applying reliability modeling and prediction
techniques to projects that are in CPDEP phases 1, 2 and 3. A few tools are already
available for the computation portion of this work. Reliability, availability and
maintainability data (in a readily useable form) and skill levels applying the tools must
increase in order to economically do reliability modeling studies. However, reliability
modeling and prediction will become an important way of studying project alternatives in
the future.

Data Availability and Requirements

The recognized bible on reliability of electrical systems is the IEEE Gold Book, also
known as ANSI/IEEE Standard 493, Recommended Practice for the Design of Reliable
Industrial and Commercial Power Systems. It shows how equipment failure data can be
combined in series and parallel combinations similar to the electrical network connections
to arrive at an overall system reliability number.

The IEEE Gold Book also contains reliability data (RAM data) for most components of an
electrical system. The original data dates back to the 1960s and 1970s even though it

December 2000
 Reliability Prediction Guideline:
Electrical Systems Reliability

was reported in the 1980s. Work is going on now to update that reliability data and
include addition electrical and mechanical equipment to the database. This work will be
incorporate into the next issue of the IEEE Gold Book.

To aid the reliability modeling and prediction efforts, the CRTC M&ES group wants to
begin gathering RAM data into a database that can be readily used for reliability modeling
and studies. Initial RAM data will be based on the IEEE Gold Book and data from other
publications. To be most useful, the database needs to have Chevron site-specific
reliability data in it. We are interested in knowing if any business units have this type of
data available and are willing to share it with us.

For use in most reliability modeling programs, Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) and
Mean Time To Repair (MTTR) rates for individual pieces of equipment are needed.

Typical data that would be included in a database is as follows:

Equipment type or description (Note that the initial publication of the database
will include the most common types of electrical equipment.)
Failure rates in failures per year.
Mean Time Between Failure in years between failure or hours between failures.
Failure distribution (normally exponential or Weibull, but there are others).
Mean Time To Repair, which can be time to repair a piece of equipment, time a
unit or equipment is out-of-service for repair or maintenance, time to restore a
unit or piece of equipment to operation after repair or replacement, or time to
restore a unit or equipment to service after switching.
Repair distribution (normally exponential or Weibull).
Number of pieces of equipment in the population. More accurate reliability data
comes from larger populations of equipment.

Reliability Prediction Methods

The CRTC M&ES group has several tools available to do reliability modeling and
reliability prediction. First, Excel spreadsheet techniques are adequate for some simple
or simplified systems. A few studies of UPS arrangements have been done using only
spreadsheets. Second, Shell Consulting Services has made a tool available through the
IEEE on the web. It is a spreadsheet-based tool and uses the reliability calculation
techniques described in the IEEE Gold Book.

The third tool is a software package from The Clockwork Group known as Electric
Network Reliability and Cost Optimizer, ENRiCO. This software uses Monte Carlo
simulation techniques for modeling large or complex electrical systems. This software
package is based on Clockworks SPAR simulation package and is streamlined for use
with electrical systems.

December 2000
 Reliability Prediction Guideline:
Electrical Systems Reliability

Spreadsheets have been the tool of choice for the small amount of reliability modeling
that has been done so far. However, they are limited to smaller, simpler systems. They
also are based on the assumption that failure rates are constant when in reality they are
not. A more sophisticated reliability computation tool was purchased to handled larger,
more complex systems and to be able to handle other types of failure rates.

Examples

To understand electrical system reliability analysis and what it does, it is useful to review
an example. The example below was hand calculated using an Excel spreadsheet and
techniques described in the IEEE Gold Book. This is the classic way and the way that
reliability prediction has been done in the past. The other tools mentioned in the text do
similar analysis and can evaluate systems with more complexity.

December 2000
 Reliability Prediction Guideline:
Electrical Systems Reliability

Hand Calculation Method--Refinery High Voltage System Modification

A Chevron Refinery was installing a new high-voltage substation to provide power to two
new medium-voltage substations. This new high-voltage substation would be the fifth
high-voltage substation installed at the refinery. One of the major objectives of the project
was to improve overall reliability of the refinery high-voltage system, in particular the
reliability of their high voltage transmission-line that forms a loop connecting the four
existing high-voltage substations. The concern was that the high-voltage (HV)
transmission-line requires periodic outages to perform maintenance, and while a section
of the loop is out-of service (11 days per year) the refinerys generation substation is
reduce to a single path for exporting power. Should a fault occur on the other half of the
HV transmission-line the refinery would suffer a significant loss of steam production and
process upset. Refer to sketch High-Voltage System Before.

Utility
Main SUB

Capacitors

Capacitors

To
SUB-1

Sub-2A
Sub-2B Sub-3

Gen SUB

Generation

High-Voltage System - Before

December 2000
 Reliability Prediction Guideline:
Electrical Systems Reliability

The original project design configuration consisted of installing a new breaker-and-a-half

high-voltage substation and interconnecting the new substation in such a way as to create
two transmission-line loops. Refer to sketch HV System Plan.

Utility
Main SUB

Capacitors

Capacitors

Sub-1

Sub-4A
Sub-2A Central Sub
Sub-2B Sub-3

Sub-4B

Gen Sub

Generation

High-Voltage System - Plan

The new substation and transmission-line will ensure that the generation substation has a
redundant export pathways, even during periods of transmission line maintenance. While
the projects initial design will increase the HV System reliability, is it the most cost
effective way to do-so? To evaluate possible cost savings a reliability analysis of
alternate schemes was undertaken. It must be noted that this example focuses on the
reliability of only the HV system; however, reliability of the two connected medium-voltage

December 2000
 Reliability Prediction Guideline:
Electrical Systems Reliability

substations was also important to the refinery. A separate analysis of the medium voltage
substations was also completed, but for simplicity the analysis is not presented here.
Suffice it to say that this concurrent analysis affected design of the alternate HV system
configuration. After several iterations the configuration shown in sketch HV System
Alternate was selected for comparison to the original project design configuration.

Utility
Main Sub

Capacitors

Capacitors

Sub-1

Sub-2A
Sub-2B Sub-4A Sub-4B Sub-3

Gen Sub

Generation

High-Voltage System-Alternate

Each of the design configurations were simplified for the hand calculation analysis. The
simplified configurations are shown on sketch HV System Simplified. The following
assumptions were made:

December 2000
 Reliability Prediction Guideline:
Electrical Systems Reliability

The source bus is located at the point of interconnection to the utility grid.
Reliability is measured at the generation substation.
Impact of load substations on HV system reliability is neglected.

Main Sub

Main Sub

Main Sub

Main Sub

Main Sub
Bus-A

Sub-4A

Sub-4B
Sub-3
Sub-2A

Sub-2B

Central Sub

Bus-B
Gen Sub

Gen Sub

Gen Sub

Gen Sub

Gen Sub

Present Configuration Additional "Planned" Additional "Alternate"

Configuration Configuration
Legend

= (Switch-Breaker-Switch)
(Switch-Switch-Breaker-
= Switch-Switch)

High-Voltage System Simplified

The sketch Reliability Components-1 shows all of the electrical components for a typical
leg of the simplified configuration, between the source bus and the analysis bus.
Reliability data for each component is required to perform the analysis. The data
requirements include mean time between failure (MTBF), and mean time to repair
(MTTR), also referred to as downtime per failure. Lastly, for transmission lines (or as
appropriate) data for the average routine maintenance downtime per year is required. A

December 2000
 Reliability Prediction Guideline:
Electrical Systems Reliability

complete set of reliability component sketches (total of five) was used to create the
reliability analysis spreadsheet, HV System Reliability Analysis. A detailed explanation
of the spreadsheets construction is beyond the scope of this example; however, a quick
review of the basic reliability formulas follows the spreadsheet summary.

Starting Point

H.V. Bus-A H.V. Bus-B

H.V. Switch H.V. Switch
H.V. Breaker H.V. Breaker H.V. Line
Main Sub

H.V. Switch H.V. Switch Line Maint Outage

Relays Relays
H.V. Switch
H.V. Breaker
H.V. Switch H.V. Switch H.V. Switch
H.V. Breaker H.V. Breaker
H.V. Switch H.V. Switch
Gen Sub

Relays Relays Relays

H.V. Line H.V. Switch H.V. Bus-B
Line Maint Outage H.V. Breaker
H.V. Switch
H.V. Bus-A
H.V. Switch H.V. Switch
H.V. Breaker H.V. Breaker
H.V. Switch H.V. Switch Reliability
Relays Relays Analyis Point
H.V. Switch H.V. Switch The Reliability Analysis Point is the point at
Subs 2A & 2B

H.V. Breaker H.V. Breaker which system reliablity is being calculated

H.V. Switch H.V. Switch (i.e., calculating system availability at this
Relays Relays point).

H.V. Switch H.V. Switch

H.V. Breaker H.V. Breaker
H.V. Switch H.V. Switch
Relays
H.V. Switch
H.V. Breaker
H.V. Switch

Reliability Components-1
(Typical of 5)

This example utilizes two basic sets of reliability formulas. One set is used to analyze
series connected electrical components, and another set is used to analyze components

December 2000
 Reliability Prediction Guideline:
Electrical Systems Reliability

connected in parallel. The two sets of formulas are shown on Figure-1, Reliability
Analysis Overall Calculation and Comparison Sheet. The source of the formulas is the
IEEE Gold Book, IEEE Standard 493-1990. Figure-1 also shows the results of the final
reliability calculations for each of the three configurations studied. Not shown are the
supporting MS Excel worksheets that provide reliability data for each pathway that make-
up a portion of each configuration.

The following assumptions were made in creating the worksheets, and populating the
RAM table (component reliability data).

A failure is defined as any interruption, however short, of a pathways (transmission

line or substation bus) ability to transmit power.
Refinery reliability data was used where available; otherwise, data from IEEE Std 493-
1990 was used.

Figure-1 - Reliability Analysis Overall Calculation and Comparison Sheet.

66 kV System Configuration Failures per Downtime Calculated Calculated Calculated Calculated

)
Year ( per Failure Failure Rate Downtime MTBF (Years) Availability
(r, in hours) (failures/yr) Per Failure
(Hours)

66kV System -Present Configuration

LSFO Line 2.255671212 30.7 0.4

Westhill Line 2.284820078 41.9 0.4
Parallel 0.042705 17.7 23.4 0.999913646

66kV System
w/Chevcentral
LSFO + Westhill 0.042705 17.7 23.4
Chevcentral 2.414044047 20.9 0.4
Parallel 0.00045485 9.6 2,198.5 0.999999502
6

66kV System w/Alternate

LSFO + Westhill 0.042705 17.7 23.4
Alternate Path 1 2.353551 21.4 0.4
Alternate Path 2 2.353551 21.4 0.4
Parallel 3.74223E- 6.7 267,220.7 0.999999997
06

Notes:
- Calculations are performed using formulas embeded within appropriate cells.
- Series component calculation formulas are:
- Calculated Failure Rate = fs ==1 + 2

December 2000
 Reliability Prediction Guideline:
Electrical Systems Reliability

- Calculate Downtime/Failure = rs =(1r1 + 2r2)/(1 +=2)

- Parallel component calculation formulas are:

- Calculated Failure Rate = fp = 12(r1 +
r2)/8760
- Calculated Downtime/Failure = rp = r1r2/(r1 +
r2)

The outcome of the analysis shows that with the present configuration a mean time
between failure of 23 years is predicted. Likewise the analysis predicts that the planned
project will yield a MTBF of 2000 years, and the alternate configuration will yield a MTBF
of 250,000 years! We believe that the assumptions and steps required to simplify the
configurations for hand calculation serve to reduce the absolute accuracy of the analysis.
However, since the same simplification errors are common to each configuration
analyzed, we believe the individual results provide an adequate qualitative result, useful
for comparison of the various configurations. In other words, we believe the conclusions
that can be drawn from this analysis are that the planned project scope will yield a
significant increase in HV system reliability; however, the alternate design would yield
significantly more improvement. At this point an economic analysis would be used
finalize the configuration selection.

In this example the alternate configuration was estimated to reduce project costs by ten
percent, a significant savings.

December 2000
 Reliability Opportunities Within Chevron
PHASE 1 PHASE 2 PHASE 3 PHASE 4 PHASE 5
Figure 2

Grey shading
indicates where The most useful reliability assessments
reliability tools and used in CPDEP Phase 4 and 5 are
oriented to the component level and can
analysis could be Identify Identify Develop Alternatives be very detailed. The best data is what Operate and
Opportunities Execute
used. Alternatives has been gathered for a specific site for Evaluate
specific equipment.

The most useful reliability programs Reliability assessment used in

used in CPDEP Phase 1 and 2 are
evaluate whole systems (process plants,
number of trains, etc.), logistics (tankage,
Corporate and Operating
transport),or equipment sparing (multiple units).
Company Senior Management
CPDEP Phase 3 may be systems
oriented or component oriented.
Reliability prediction is useful where
individual equipment, spares, or IFO
arrangements can be evaluated at the
component level.

Key Gaps: Reliability

Capture of Failure data
Project Planning and such as Root Cause
Database
Evaluation Analysis or Tap Root
Capture of important
Operating Data

CAPEX Equipment
Capital Expenditure Repair
Program

OPEX Reliability Centered

Maintenance Computerized Maintenance
Operating and Maintenance Management Systems
Risk-Based Inspection
Expenditure Program

SeaPlan OREDA OREDA IEEE Meridium

Data Sources FieldPlan Jardine & Assoc. IEEE DNV MP2
and Tools MIRIAM (Norway) Jardine & Assoc. J D Edwards
MIRIAM (Norway) [PM and PdM] SAP
 Appendix 1

Databases, References and Tools

Databases:
ANSI/IEEE Standard 493 (IEEE Gold Book), Recommended Practice for the
Design of Reliable Industrial and Commercial Power Systems.

Stephen J. Briggs, Michael J. Bartos and Robert G. Arno, Reliability and

Availability Assessment of Electrical and Mechanical Systems, IEEE Trans. On
Industry Applications, Vol. 34, No. 6, November/December 1996 (Pub. No. 0093-
9994(98)08111-0), Pages 1387-1396. (Some updated reliability data to
supplement the Gold Book and also mechanical data.)

References:
Hahn, Gerald J. and Shapiro, Samuel S., Statistical Models in Engineering,
Wiley, 1967, 1994.

IEEE Tutorial Course Power System Reliability Evaluation, IEEE Pub. 82 EHO
195-8-PWR, March, 1982.

OConner, Patrick D. T., Newton, David, and Bromley, Richard: Practical

Reliability Engineering, Third Edition, John Wiley & Sons, 1991.

Ireson, W. Grant, Coombs, Jr., Clyde F., Moss, Richard Y.: Handbook of
Reliability Engineering and Management, McGraw-Hill, 1996.

Packard, Michael H., Design for Reliability Course, NASA Glenn Research
Center Office of Safety and Assurance Technologies, December, 1997.
Website: http://www-osma.lerc.nasa.gov/dfr/dfr/html

MIL-HDBK-217F Reliability Prediction of Electronic Equipment, December,

1991. (Uses the part stress and parts count methods to derive predicted
reliability for assemblies. Formulas and parameters are described. Extensive
bibliography.)

OREDA Offshore REliability DAta [Base]; OREDA is a project organization

currently sponsored by nine major oil companies (including Chevron) operating in
the North Sea and Adriatic. OREDA's main purpose is to promote the use and
exchange of reliability technology and data among the participating companies.
Computer Tools:
PCIC 2000-2 Reliability Software and Documentation, John Propst Equilon
Enterprises, LLC. The Model2000-2pcic model was discussed as part of paper
PCIC 2000-2 presented at the IEEE/IAS/PCIC Conference in San Antonio, TX
September, 2000. Available at http://ieee-pcic.org/Base/archive.htm.

Electric Network Reliability and Cost OptimizerENRiCO, The Clockwork Group,

Item Software, http://www.clockwork-group.com. (Hardware key required;
program available on the Chevron GIL Options Panel.)